NVDA Fair Value Estimate
Is NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) fairly priced at $177.39? We used 3 separate valuation methods on real SEC data. Here's what they show.
All 3 models say it's worth around
$144.73
Composite fair value (average of 3 models)
18% above fair valueFair value
$144.73
Market price
$177.39
What would I earn buying today?
(CAGR)
-4.0%
per year
What's a safe entry price?
(margin of safety)
$123.02
15% buffer below fair value
Do the models agree?
(model consensus)
2/3
overvalued
How we got this number
Each model asks a different question about NVDA's value. Tap any one to see the exact math — every number comes from a real SEC filing.
2 of 3 models say overvalued. The Earnings-Based DCF gives a more favorable view because projected earnings growth leads to a higher value than simpler models capture.
Has NVDA ever been cheap? (price vs fair value)
Fair value vs actual stock price over the last ~2.5 years. The shaded area is the "hope premium" — what buyers pay above fundamentals, betting on future growth.
The short answer: no. NVIDIA Corp has stayed above its formula-based fair value the whole time shown. This is common for fast-growing firms — the market prices in future earnings these backward-looking models can't capture. It doesn't mean a crash is coming, but buyers are paying for expectations, not today's fundamentals.
Think these models are too simple?
They are — on purpose. For deeper analysis using free cash flow, growth decay, and terminal value, try the full DCF Calculator. Or let X-Ray guide you through a full 5-step investment review.
About the Fair Value Calculator
This tool estimates intrinsic value using three independent models: the Graham Number (earnings × book value), a PEG-Adjusted fair P/E approach, and an Earnings-Based DCF that projects future earnings. All three are averaged for a composite fair value with upside or downside versus market price.
Using multiple models matters — one formula never tells the full story. When all three point in the same direction, the signal gains weight.
How It Works
Graham Number: sqrt(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — a conservative upper bound based on earnings and net asset value.
PEG-Adjusted: Computes a fair P/E by matching the growth rate (PEG benchmark of 1.0), then applies that to current earnings.
Earnings-Based DCF: Projects future earnings, prices them using the sector median P/E, then discounts back to today.
The composite averages all three equally. Model fitness ratings tell you which results to trust most for this stock.
Is NVIDIA Corp Fairly Priced?
ExampleThree valuation methods were applied to NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) using live SEC filing data. Each one asks a different question — and they don't always agree.
Graham Number — Benjamin Graham's formula: sqrt(22.5 × EPS × Book Value). For NVDA with EPS of $4.90 and book value of $6.47, the Graham Number lands at $$26.71. This model was designed for asset-heavy firms — it often sets a low floor for asset-light companies.
PEG Ratio — Peter Lynch's insight: a stock's P/E should match its growth rate. NVDA grows earnings at 25.0% per year, so a fair P/E of 25.0x gives a PEG-adjusted fair value of $$122.50. The market P/E of 35.9x is higher than what growth justifies.
Earnings-Based DCF — Projects earnings 5 years forward at 25.0%, prices the future stock using the Technology sector median P/E of 28x (not NVDA's own inflated multiple), then discounts back at 8%. Result: $$284.96.
| Model | Fair Value | vs. Market Price ($177.39) |
|---|---|---|
| Graham Number | $26.71 | 564% above |
| PEG-Adjusted | $122.50 | 45% above |
| Earnings-Based DCF | $284.96 | 38% below |
Two of three models agree on direction. Earnings-Based DCF disagrees — projected earnings growth leads to a higher value than simpler models capture. This is common and doesn't invalidate the signal — check the model fitness ratings above to see which results fit NVDA best.
Frequently asked questions
The Fair Value Calculator runs three separate models on every S&P 500 stock. The Graham Number uses earnings and book value to find a safe price floor. The PEG Ratio checks if the P/E ratio matches earnings growth. The Earnings-Based DCF projects future earnings and brings them back to today's value. We average all three for a combined fair value, and show how much they agree.
Try it now — run all three valuation models for NVDA with live financial data.
Back to calculatorAll data from NVIDIA Corp SEC filings via Tiingo · Calculations by GoodMoat · Last refreshed Apr 7, 2026
This is not financial advice. Fair value models are estimates based on past data and assumptions.