Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) — Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Thank you, Allay, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Truist's first quarter 2023 earnings call. With us today are our Chairman and CEO, Bill Rogers; and our CFO, Mike Maguire. During this morning's call, they will discuss Truist's first quarter results, share their perspectives on current business conditions and recent events, and provide an updated outlook for 2023. Clarke Starnes, our Vice Chair and Chief Risk Officer; Beau Cummins, our Vice Chair; John Howard, Truist Insurance Holdings' Chairman and CEO are also in attendance and are available to participate in the Q&A portion of our call. The accompanying presentation as well as our earnings release and supplemental financial information are available on the Truist Investor Relations website, ir.truist.com. Our presentation today will include forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please review the disclosures on Slides 2 and 3 of the presentation regarding these statements and measures as well as the appendix for appropriate reconciliations to GAAP. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Bill.

Thanks, Ankur, and good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining our call. I know you have a busy day ahead of you. The first quarter of 2023 was certainly an unusual and maybe even possibly a historic one for our banking industry. I am really proud of our more than 50,000 teammates who leaned into our purpose and continue to care for our clients and stakeholders, reassuring them of Truist's position of strength and commitment to serve them. Throughout the quarter, we continued to experience the benefits of our shift from integrating to operating, as evidenced by improved organic production and increasing client satisfaction scores which in our branches have surged to new highs from the weeks after March 9. Based on a volatile and uncertain environment, we successfully demonstrated the strength and resiliency of Truist's diverse business mix, scale and market share, granular and relationship-oriented deposit base, and strong capital and liquidity. But as we will also discuss, some of that positive momentum was offset by higher funding costs and somewhat elevated expenses. Strategically, we continue to take actions to optimize our franchise and focus our resources on areas where we have an advantage in the marketplace while simplifying, consolidating, or exiting certain activities to improve profitable growth. Mike will share some of those details later in the call. We'll provide more details on the quarter's results and other topical items throughout the presentation. But first, let's begin with our purpose on Slides 4 and 5. During certain times, it can be easy to focus on the short-term at the expense of the long-term, which is why it's important that we always lead with purpose at Truist. These slides are a powerful reminder that the most effective way to grow over the long-term is to deliver on our purpose to inspire and build better lives and communities. Today, my comments will be a bit briefer to gauge investor interest in other topics. Our purpose statement intentionally begins with the word Inspire. And that's exactly what I witnessed while working closely with our teammates in March. I was inspired by how our teammates leaned into purpose and care as they held numerous discussions with clients and stakeholders to answer their questions about the banking system and to emphasize Truist's financial position and strength while helping them move forward with their financial needs. In addition to the client care we provided last month, there were many other ways we actualized our purpose throughout the quarter, which we highlight on Slide 5. You can read more about these items and many of our other efforts to build better lives and communities in our 2022 Corporate Responsibility Report, which we published last week. Now, I'll walk through our first quarter performance highlights on Slide 7. The quarter performance slide focused mostly on GAAP or unadjusted results since MOE-related spending exited our run rate last year. Going forward, we intend to focus primarily on GAAP results with exceptions for adjusted tangible efficiency and adjusted PPNR as intangible amortization expense remains significant due to the scale of the MOE and has no impact on capital generation. Truist reported first quarter net income of $1.4 billion or $1.05 a share, up 6% from the prior quarter due to strong growth in adjusted PPNR, lower merger costs, partially offset by a more normal provision level compared to a year ago. Relative to the fourth quarter of 2022, EPS decreased 13%, primarily due to lower net interest income and seasonality. Adjusted PPNR decreased 7% sequentially, consistent with our prior guidance as better than expected fee income due to higher capital markets activity was more than offset by lower net interest income and somewhat higher than expected expenses. Relative to the first quarter of 2022, adjusted PPNR grew 19%, and we delivered 310 basis points of positive adjusted operating leverage, reflecting a good start to the year. Asset quality remains strong, and net charge-offs continue to normalize consistent with our expectations. We prudently built our ALLL ratio by 3 basis points to reflect a more uncertain economic environment. Balance sheet trends despite all the noise in mid-March were expected and more business as usual, and we'll cover more about loans, deposits, capital and liquidity later in the presentation. Moving to our digital and technology update on Slide 8. Continued investments in digital will be even more critical due to the close relationship between digital engagement, primacy of relationships, and deposits. The good news is Truist prioritized digital early in the merger, building the Truist digital experience organically and in the cloud, which allows us to fully own the digital experience for our clients end-to-end. Our first quarter results reflect our continued investments, agility, and momentum. In the first quarter, we opened 146,000 deposit accounts digitally, exceeding our internal expectations. We saw strong growth in digital transactions and Zelle, in particular, underscoring the importance of payments and money movement capabilities to our clients. More broadly, we had an incredibly productive technology quarter as we advance our strategy to reimagine our capability set. In the deposit space, we launched a new data-driven deposit pricing engine which provides personalized relationship-based rates for clients during account opening and allows us to be more targeted with respect to the rate paid. We also enhanced our digital lending capabilities with the launch of our commercial loan dashboard, an industry-leading solution that allows wholesale lending clients to track the status of their loans, upload documents, and eventually electronically sign documents. Our goal is to eventually incorporate this dashboard into one view, our desired end-state integrated digital experience across payments, lending, and capital markets creating a seamless experience for commercial and corporate clients and for our relationship with Truist. So turning to loans and leases on Slide 9. Loan growth was solid in portfolios targeted for growth and lower in portfolios where we've intentionally pulled back. Average loan balances grew 1.7% sequentially while end-of-period balances increased a more modest 50 basis points. The slower growth on an end-of-period basis was intentional and expected and reflects our strategic decision in the second half of last year to reduce production in certain lower-return portfolios, including indirect auto and correspondent mortgage, while also increasing rates and spreads from ongoing production. C&I balances increased 3.6% on an average basis and 1.8% on an end-of-period basis due to continued growth across CIB and CCB, reflecting the benefits of our capabilities and our markets. Consumer loan balances decreased by 60 basis points on average and were down 1% from December 31, reflecting ongoing runoff in student and partnership lending as well as lower indirect auto production. Strategically, we're focusing our balance sheet on Truist clients who have broader relationships while limiting our balance sheet usage with more single-product and indirect clients. We're also evaluating ways to increase the velocity of our balance sheet, increasing greater utilization of loan sales and securitization. This allows us to be more impactful and increase returns in businesses such as service finance. Next, I'll provide some perspective on overall deposit trends starting on Slide 10. Despite the unique events of mid-March, average deposit trends during the first quarter were generally consistent with our expectations. Average deposit balance decreased 1.2%, driven by quantitative tightening, inflation, and movements to higher-rate alternatives. Within the month of March, more deposit flows were concentrated in the period from March 11 to March 18 and have largely been business as usual since including through yesterday. Positive outflows during mid-March were primarily related to CIG and CCB clients. We chose to diversify into money market mutual funds and, in some cases, across multiple banks. These outflows tended to be at a higher cost of non-operational deposits. We also experienced deposit inflows as we're both attracting new clients and expanding our relationships with existing clients. Retail production continues to improve due to our shift from integrating to operating and leading with the value proposition of Truist One. In the first quarter, Truist saw record new deposit production, including an 18% year-over-year uplift in branch account openings with improved client retention driving strong net new account performance. Commercial Community Banking had record new account growth in March, and we've seen good momentum in the first couple of weeks of April as clients are beginning to move money to fund those accounts. More noteworthy than overall deposit flows was the pace of the mix shift from DDA as non-interest-bearing deposits decreased to 32% of deposits from 34% previously. This happened a little sooner than we previously anticipated. Interest-bearing deposit costs increased 64 basis points sequentially, contributing to a cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta of 36% so far in the cycle. Deposit betas accelerated relative to the fourth quarter due to the presence of high-rate alternatives and the previously mentioned shift from non-interest-bearing DDA into interest-bearing products. We'll continue to be attentive to client needs and relationships while maximizing the value outside of rate paid. Given higher investor interest and additional deposit details, we provided a closer look at our deposit base on Slide 11. Truist has one of the most robust deposit franchises in the banking industry, thanks to three key factors. First, Truist has strong market shares in many of the fastest-growing markets in the U.S. Truist currently ranks first, second, or third in deposit share in 17 of the Top 20 markets. Those include cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, D.C., Miami, Tampa, Raleigh-Durham, among others, making us the dominant player in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Second, Truist has a granular retail-leading deposit base that is 63% insured and/or collateralized, which is the second highest in our peer group and an important source of stability. In addition, our commercial deposits are diversified across 21 industry groups with no one sector representing more than 10% of corporate and commercial banking deposits. Third, we're highly relationship-oriented, as you can see from the table at the bottom of the slide. The average deposit account at Truist has been open for 17 years, during which time these relationships have broadened to include multiple products and services. In retail and small business banking, we have over 12 million deposit accounts with an average account balance of $17,000. RSBB deposits are highly granular and 86% of balances are insured. In addition, Truist is the primary bank for the vast majority of those clients. In our Wealth business, 90% of depositors have investments with Truist Wealth, and in our Commercial Community Bank, 81% of depositors have a payments lending or advisory relationship with Truist, with the majority related to operating treasury management products. Together, these factors are a source of strength for Truist and for our clients. Now let me turn it over to Mike to discuss our financial results in more detail.

Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with net interest income on Slide 12. For the quarter, taxable equivalent net interest income decreased 2.8% sequentially as higher funding costs and two fewer days in the quarter more than offset the effects of solid loan growth. Reported net interest margin decreased by 8 basis points, while core net interest margin decreased by 7 basis points. When you break down the decrease in the core net interest margin, approximately 5 basis points were driven by a shift in the funding mix from DDA and other low-cost deposit products into interest-bearing deposits and about 2 basis points were due to our decision to conservatively carry more liquidity during the last few weeks of March. Moving to fee income on Slide 13. Fee income was relatively stable compared to the fourth quarter and modestly exceeded our expectations in light of typical seasonal headwinds. Insurance income increased by $47 million, largely due to seasonality. Year-over-year organic revenue growth was 4.7%. Mortgage banking income rose by $25 million, primarily due to a gain on sale of a servicing portfolio, which was partially offset by MSR valuation adjustments. Income from core mortgage activity was relatively stable compared to the prior quarter. Wealth management income improved by $15 million, benefiting from an increase in brokerage commissions, asset flows, and higher fees due to rising asset prices during the quarter. Wealth continues to build momentum as net organic asset flows, which exclude the impact of market value changes, were approximately $1 billion for the quarter and have been positive for seven of the last eight quarters. Additionally, we were pleased by the modest increase in investment banking and trading income, led by strength in investment-grade and high-yield bond originations, fixed-income derivatives, and loan syndications. The performance of CIB continues to be aided by two idiosyncratic factors, strategic hiring over the past two years as well as increased integrated relationship management activity. With respect to IRM, capital markets fees from non-CIB clients increased 12% sequentially and were up 20% from the first quarter of 2022. Other income decreased by $56 million, primarily due to lower income from our non-qualified plan. While fee income remains below its potential, our investments in key areas such as insurance, investment banking, and wealth will continue to be a source of momentum as markets normalize and as our IRM execution continues to mature. Turning now to Slide 14. Reported non-interest expense declined by $31 million driven by a $107 million reduction in merger costs due to the completion of integration activities and a $27 million decrease in amortization expense. The expense reductions I just described were largely offset by a $103 million or a 3% increase in adjusted non-interest expense. Expense drivers included a $39 million increase in pension expense and a $23 million increase in regulatory charges due to higher FDIC premiums. We also experienced a $33 million increase in operating losses, which are reflected in other expenses due to industry check fraud issues and operating losses within Truist Insurance, recognized prior to completing our transaction with Stone Point. As a company, we are committed to generating expense reductions and have undertaken a number of actions to help bend the expense arc at Truist. Last week, we announced a strategic realignment within our fixed income sales and trading business in which we discontinued certain market-making activities and services provided by our middle markets fixed income platform. This platform was largely focused on MBS-related sales and trading for depositories and had produced an unattractive ROE. This realignment will result in an approximate $50 million run rate expense save with little PPNR impact and enable us to focus more on our core strategy of being a full-service and premier investment bank for corporates, sponsors, and municipal issuers. We're also in the process of realigning our LightStream platforms with our broader consumer business to bring the innovation, digital capabilities, efficiencies, and cloud-based infrastructure of LightStream to Truist's broader client base. This will reduce the cost of supporting separate brands and strategies and enhance the experience for our existing and prospective clients. In addition, we continue to adjust our capacity and focus in mortgage to reflect current challenging market conditions and our own strategic focus on client primacy. These actions, among others, drove the $63 million of restructuring charges during the quarter. Furthermore, we’ve also aligned executive compensation at Truist with shareholder expectations, which I shared with many of you about a month ago. Taken together, we believe these as well as other actions we're taking will increase our focus, bend our expense curve, and improve returns for Truist. Moving to Slide 15. Asset quality remained strong in the first quarter, reflecting our prudent risk culture and diverse loan portfolio. Leading indicators remain favorable. Loans 30 to 89 days past due decreased 15 basis points sequentially and were down 17 basis points versus the first quarter of 2022. Our NPL ratio was steady at a relatively benign 36 basis points. Net charge-offs increased 3 basis points to 37 basis points, primarily due to C&I and continued normalization in the consumer, which are consistent with pre-pandemic levels. We became even more cautious in our outlook regarding CRE fundamentals and in light of increased economic uncertainty, we prudently increased our allowance by $102 million and increased our ALLL ratio by 3 basis points to 1.37%. In anticipation of an increasing risk environment, we are also tightening credit and reducing our risk appetite in selected areas while maintaining our through-the-cycle approach for high-quality, long-term clients. Next, given high investor interest, I will dive deeper into CRE on Slide 16. As we began the integration process to become Truist, we were very intentional about retaining the diversification benefits of the merger. To achieve this outcome, we carefully evaluated our various portfolios, including CRE to ensure we fully understood their combined risk profile and to establish how we would manage them going forward. While we did not wholly pause CRE production during this process, we did deemphasize it until we aligned on a single go-to-market strategy. As a result of this decision, Truist's CRE portfolio actually decreased by 2.2% from the end of 2019 to the end of 2022, whereas our median peer grew CRE 21%. Our disciplined focus on diversification has also resulted in less CRE concentration and risk relative to our peer group. At year-end, CRE represented 11% of our loan mix compared to 12% at our median peer, and the office segment comprised 1.6% of our loan book versus 1.9% at our median peer. We maintain a high-quality CRE portfolio through disciplined risk management and prudent client selection. We typically work with developers and sponsors we know well and have observed their performance through the cycle. Our exposure tends to be large CRE with strong institutional sponsorship, and we have reduced our exposure to smaller CRE. The quality of our CRE portfolio is also reflected in the Federal Reserve's annual stress test results. Our disciplined approach to CRE is reflected in our asset quality metrics, which remain solid. In the lower right, you can see a snapshot of our office portfolio, which had approximately $5 billion in outstanding balances as of March 31, and is another area where Truist has been risk-averse and highly selective over the past two years. Our office portfolio tends to be weighted towards Class A properties within our footprint, which we believe will perform better than large urban markets. We have a great CRE team that is very proactive in working with clients to get ahead of any problems. Criticized trends have increased over the past few months, but we believe overall problems will be manageable given our conservative LTVs, our reserves, and the laddered maturity profile of the portfolio. Turning to capital and liquidity on Slide 17. Our CET1 ratio increased from 9% to 9.1% as approximately 20 basis points of organic capital generation were partially offset by 12 basis points of CECL phase-in. While not included in our CET1 ratio, AOCI improved by $1 billion from December 31 to March 31. Of our $12.6 billion of after-tax OCI, as of March 31, $8.5 billion is related to our AFS portfolio, $2.5 billion is related to the frozen portion of the HTM portfolio, and $1.5 billion is related to our pension plan. We would expect the securities portfolio related OCI to decrease by $2 billion to $2.5 billion by the end of 2024 or by approximately 20%, and that’s in a static rate environment. Additionally, this accretion will be a powerful driver of higher tangible book value per share over time, a small glimpse of which we saw this past quarter with tangible book value increasing by 8%. On April 3, we also closed on the sale of a 20% minority stake in Truist Insurance Holdings, which added approximately 30 basis points to our capital ratios and provides flexibility in the future. Furthermore, we declared a strong common dividend of $0.52 per share, which was paid on March 1. Finally, Truist continues to have significant access to liquidity and a very robust liquidity management process that includes internal and external stress testing as well as real-time monitoring of our liquidity position. Our average consolidated LCR improved to 113% during the first quarter and remains well above the regulatory minimum of 100%. We have access to approximately $166 billion of liquidity, including cash, FHLB borrowing capacity, unpledged securities, and discount window capacity. As a reminder, government and agency obligations represent 97% of our securities portfolio, which produces about $2.5 billion to $3 billion of cash flow per quarter. During the quarter, we conservatively increased our cash position from $16 billion as of December 31 to $33 billion at the end of March, funded largely by callable FHLB advances. We would expect that to somewhat normalize going forward as activity has stabilized. More broadly, we do expect regulatory requirements around capital and liquidity to heighten but believe we're in a strong position to respond given the already high expectations for an institution of our size and the strategic and financial flexibility we have as a company in the orderly phase-in period that would likely accompany potential changes. Now I will review our updated guidance on Slide 18. Looking into the second quarter of 2023, we expect revenues to be relatively stable compared to the first quarter as a modest decline in NII is offset by seasonally stronger insurance revenue. Adjusted expenses are anticipated to increase 1% to 2% linked quarter primarily as a result of higher incentive-based compensation from insurance revenue growth. For the full year 2023, we now expect revenues to increase 5% to 7% compared to 2022. The decline from our previous outlook is driven almost entirely by a lower net interest income outlook given higher deposit and funding costs. Adjusted expenses are still expected to increase between 5% and 7%. As I indicated earlier, we remain focused on taking actions throughout the year to reduce costs. Excluded from our adjusted expense outlook are two items. First, we are not including the impact of any potential incremental FDIC surcharge or assessment. After we receive clarity, we'll provide an update on the estimated impact. Secondly, there will be some one-time costs occurring in 2023 and 2024 tied to preparing Truist Insurance Holdings to transition its operating model to be more independent, which is consistent with its new capital structure. These expenses directly correlate to realizing significant value in the business over time. We will not adjust for these expenses in our results, but we will provide transparency. Our goal is still to produce positive operating leverage and positive adjusted PPNR growth for the full year, excluding these two items. The degree of difficulty has increased relative to January, given higher funding costs. Our expectations for the net charge-off ratio to be between 35 basis points for the full year is unchanged. Lastly, excluding discrete items, we now expect our effective tax rate will be approximately 20%, which translates to approximately 22% on a taxable equivalent basis due to our adoption of recent accounting guidance regarding the amortization of new market tax credits. This change simply shifts contra revenue and other income to the tax expense line and has no impact on the bottom line. Now I'll hand it back to Bill for some final remarks.

Great. Thanks, Mike. So to conclude on Slide 19, Truist is on the right path. I'm highly optimistic about our ability to realize our significant post-integration potential as summarized in our investment thesis. Our goal financially is to produce strong growth and profitability and to do so with less volatility than our peers. As we began to shift from integrating to operating several quarters ago, we made a strategic decision to focus our resources on areas where we have an advantage in the marketplace and are most synergistic with our core strengths. Since that time, we've focused on product solutions and distinctive experiences that are most relevant to our primary consumer and deposit households into our commercial, corporate, and high-net-worth clients while reducing our investment in businesses and clients that are less strategically relevant with respect to returns and relationship opportunities. We believe these changes are consistent with where the banking industry is likely to go from here. We're already realizing the early benefits of this shift. For instance, first quarter net new consumer checking account production was among the best we've seen since becoming Truist, driven by our continued focus on core deposit clients, the attractiveness of new products, including Truist One, and improved retention as well as flight to quality. Branch checking account production has increased by 13% since the launch of Truist One, and has accelerated to 18% compared to a year ago in the first quarter. The steady improvement we've seen in client satisfaction has been driven by the distinct service our branch and care agents provide as well as improvements in our digital processes and procedures that originated in our client journey rooms. As I indicated earlier, I'm really proud of the care our teammates provided to our clients in March, and this is reflected in higher voice of client scores during the last few weeks of the quarter. Lastly, we continue to advance our integrated relationship management program by establishing long-term growth targets for our most strategic IRM partnerships, details that I shared in December. Relative to the first quarter of last year, these strategic partnerships have grown revenues by 35%. At the same time, we acknowledge that the environment is tougher, and strong balance sheet and expense management will remain critical for our stakeholders. In closing, while uncertainty has increased, Truist is in a position of strength across a broad range of outcomes because of our diverse business mix, dynamic markets, conservative credit culture, balanced approach to interest rate risk management, strong profitability profile, and our strong risk-adjusted capital position. I am truly optimistic about the future of Truist as our more than 50,000 talented teammates build on our momentum to create distinctive client experiences and deliver on our purpose to inspire and build better lives and communities. So with that, Ankur, let me turn it back over to you for Q&A.

Great. Thank you, Bill. Allay, at this time, will you explain to our listeners how they can participate in the Q&A session? As you do that, I'd like to ask the participants to limit yourselves to one primary question and one follow-up so that we can accommodate as many of you as possible today.

Thanks. Good morning. Just wanted to start just on the deposit front, good color you gave in terms of the relationships. You mentioned in the deck that end-of-period was down 2%, and some of that was seasonal. So just wondering if you can give us a little bit more color on just how you saw deposits end the quarter and if you've seen stabilization and what kind of outlook you just see for the flow and mix of deposits from here? Thanks.

Hey. Good morning, Ken. It's Mike. That's right. We saw really throughout the course of the quarter, relatively stable flows. Actually, if you think about sort of where we saw our balances evolve throughout the first two months of the quarter, very typical. We saw some seasonal outflows related to public funds. We saw the expected impact of quantitative tightening, which we've seen throughout the previous couple of quarters. And so we're probably down about 1% or so. Then in the last month of the quarter, we really saw continued public fund outflows. We saw a little bit of higher rate pursuits behavior. We saw people cycling into money market accounts more frequently. We saw some of our wealth clients cycle into investment accounts and ended down about 2% for the quarter. I'd say the bulk of the money outflow happened during that week that Bill mentioned in our opening remarks. As far as outlook is concerned, it's been business as usual and steady since really that first week in March. Our expectation is that the impacts that were driving some pressure in the fourth quarter and the first two-thirds of the first quarter will continue to put pressure on deposits, probably to the tune of 1% to 2%.

Okay. My follow-up question is about the mix of DDAs and how you expect that to change as the cycling continues. I believe you were at about 32% in the first quarter. You had mentioned before that you thought you could get close to 30% over time. Has that outlook changed at all considering recent events?

Yeah, Ken, it's Bill. Before COVID, we were at about 29%. As you mentioned, we're currently around 32%. We will likely move down to the high 20s depending on interest rates, which seems to be the level of stabilization based on our current knowledge. Additionally, regarding what Mike discussed, I believe our strong retail deposit production will continue. While overall balance might decrease slightly by around 1%, this accounts for significant positive production momentum in our core business.

Hi. This is Blake Netter on the line for Betsy. Good morning.

Good morning.

I'm wondering if you could talk about how you're thinking about the potential impact of tougher LCR requirements and TLAC expected to be announced in the near future. How should we think about your debt issuance plans and other potential impact?

Sure. From a TLAC perspective, we've had our eyes on this for a number of quarters that the entire industry has, certainly, companies our size. We've studied the framework. We were previously considering tailored versions of TLAC, perhaps that will ultimately be the case. But in the abundance of caution, the framework that we've assessed is sort of a traditionally applied framework, the same that the largest banks in the country have applied. From our perspective, our regular way issuance, given some reasonable phase-in period, will allow Truist to comply really without much effort. To your question around debt issuance, you saw we raised $3 billion in January. Our expectation, given Truist's scale and funding needs, is that we'll be a relatively regular issuer. To the extent that we get a better sense for what's eligible and not eligible from a TLAC perspective, that may influence how we issue whether it's at the holding company or the opco, but I think the net of it is that we feel really well prepared and positioned to comply with TLAC to the extent that that's applied to Truist.

Got it. And separately, just one more question for me. Service charges on deposits came down a bit sequentially this quarter. Can you talk about the potential for overdrafts you've used to get from here?

Yeah. They're going to continue to get lower. We instituted our Truist One, which is a big part of the deposit generation and new client acquisition, but it's also our no overdraft fee accounts. So those will continue to trend lower. And those are in all of our guidance and everything that we talked about. They’re basically right on path to where we thought they’d be.

Good morning.

Hi. Good morning.

I just want to confirm that the deposit growth expectation of 1% to 2% is based on end-of-period balances and debt for the full year, correct? Thanks.

Yeah. That's a quarterly view. And I'm not sure that's going to sort of be linear in its progression. If we think about just the impact of qualitative tightening and some of the work that we've done, and certainly prior to this first quarter, was just getting a sense for our share of the easing and how that may impact our share of the tightening. That 1% to 2% is reflective of QT continuing on a quarterly basis and is also reflective of the rate environment that we're in, as people continue to assess bank alternative products where perhaps higher rates or investment products are an alternative, but that's a quarterly view.

Okay. Got it, Mike. Thank you. And then separately, also on the margin and deposit dynamics. Can you maybe talk to us about how you can see this playing out in terms of the net interest margin project progression from here? What do you expect is a fair through-cycle deposit beta? I know you're currently at 36%. I want to get your thoughts there. Thanks.

Sure. In our prepared remarks, we noted that our net interest margin in the first quarter decreased by about 8 basis points. This was largely driven by two factors. First, we mentioned that we increased our liquidity on the balance sheet as a precautionary measure. Although this did not significantly impact net interest income due to minimal negative carry relative to the funding cost, it did increase the balance sheet size, which contributed about 2 basis points to the decline in net interest margin. Additionally, the shift in our overall funding mix likely accounted for most of the remaining decrease, with 1 basis point also attributed to purchase accounting adjustments. The same factors that caused our net interest margin to decrease by 8 basis points in the first quarter are present in the second quarter as well. In terms of behavioral changes, they may be slightly more modest this time, but we still need to consider the timing of these impacts. We anticipate that net interest margin may decline by another approximately 12 basis points in the second quarter. However, we expect a more stable outlook for net interest margin in the second half of the year. We have previously indicated a more neutral stance on interest rate sensitivity, but our net interest margin will also depend on various factors, including betas and the funding mix discussed earlier. Currently, our beta assumption for net interest income and margin is at 36%. Until now, we've been performing better than expected, but in the first quarter, we slightly underperformed. Our current spot data on an IBD basis is at 40%, and we expect it to rise to the low-40s for the full second quarter, with a terminal outlook of 44%.

Got it. Thanks, Mike.

Hi. I'm not so faster, you are keep pushing the corvette analogy here, but it just looks like the fuel efficiency isn't quite as good. I don't know if you put diesel fuel in the corvette by mistake or what, but you closed 117 branches in the first quarter, so that should be good. You're getting other merger benefits. You've completed the integration phase and you guide for 5% to 7% revenue growth, which is decent, but also 5% to 7% expense growth. And isn't this the time when you go back to your management team and say, hey, we're getting more cautious on lending as you indicated. We need to tighten some of this expense spend. I get some of the expenses are FDIC and pension, minimum wage, but that's true at some of your peers that are looking for positive operating leverage. I know you said positive operating leverage, but then you have 5% to 7% higher both for revenues and expenses. So just give a little bit more color about the efficiency of Truist as you transition from integration to growth. Thanks.

Right. And Mike, I'm going to spare from the corvette analogies and just try to go right at it. As Mike said, I mean, we're going to continue to focus on positive operating leverage. The revenue guidance is really an NII guidance issue. Our continued focus on insurance, investment banking, and all the other things that comprise that, we're still very confident of. Hopefully, if markets improve in the second half of the year, we might even have some upside. Your point on the expense side is exactly right. We have about 4% or so embedded in the categories that you talked about. So the ability to manage in that other component is key, and trust me, every business leader has a positive operating leverage plan, and they are readjusting those plans based on particularly those that have an NII component to their plans and the things that they can do. You saw already this quarter, things that we're doing that are more reflective of the strategy you talked about the realignment of fixed income, consolidation of LightStream. In the past, these might have been things that would have been off the table. Now they're firmly on the table like everything else as it relates to expenses. We'll do more work in the mortgage area, all the things with spans, layers, real estate, digitization, automation, etc. All that is firmly on the table and a clear focus for us as we move into the rest of this year with a keen focus and eye on positive operating leverage.

Okay. And then one separate question. Do you plan to rebrand LightStream to Truist? And if so, does that mean you're going to have more of a national branding strategy? It’s interesting, you're in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic with Truist. You go outside the region with the different brands. So I'm just trying to reconcile your brand names.

Yeah. We're really going to eventually wind down the LightStream brand and increase the Truist brand. We created LightStream for completely different reasons that don't really exist today as it relates to Truist. We've got this incredible franchise, incredible market, and really good digital capabilities. Our strategy now is to bring all those digital capabilities, really fast turnaround times, and incredible Net Promoter Scores with LightStream to all the Truist client base. The emphasis will be on the Truist client base and with partnerships that are Truist clients rather than a national brand. I'm pleased with what we did. I think we did all the right things. We created this strong capability. But to the earlier comment, we are also supporting a separate brand, and that has a lot of costs associated with it. There's marketing and other expenses with that. We’ve had incredible success with the Truist brand, so we want to bring it under that umbrella, create more efficiencies, and then accelerate revenue by cementing these great deposit relationships we have.

All right. Thank you.

Thanks.

Hi. Good morning.

Good morning.

You mentioned that you anticipate tighter capital and liquidity standards. Bill, as you think about growing your capital from here, your starting point is 9.1. Do you feel like the build is now closer to 9.5 and 10 as you anticipate higher capital and liquidity standards? If so, how should we think about your plans for dividend growth? I suspect that buybacks would be a lower priority? Is there some RWA mitigation that you could do in order to perhaps speed up that 20 basis points of organic capital generation?

Yeah, Erika. Remember, we're actually at 9.4 today, as we've completed the interest in Truist Insurance Holdings. If we start with that, we’re comfortable where our capital level is, but we're in a capital build mode right now until we're not. We want to really understand the landscape, the regulatory climate, and be prepared. We have 20 basis points of organic capital accretion that comes into play post-dividend. Our dividend will continue to be important to us, and we'll continue to support it. I think we're at a good place right now with capital. We will continue to be in a bit of a capital build mode, so we'll blow through that 9.5 number you mentioned in several quarters. Then we'll see where the regulatory factors line up and the opportunities we have. Our focus will continue on supporting organic growth. We’ll maximize RWA, but we don’t need to reduce RWA. We do want to optimize it and create more velocity around RWA.

Got it. And my second question is, sorry to make this another car analogy, a 24% ROTCE is more like an F1 car rather than a Corvette right. But the conversation on your AFS portfolio that was brewing over the quarter aside, it feels like some of what's holding now in your valuation is the puts and takes the specials that keep coming up. I wonder, Bill, where are you in terms of the optimization of this franchise? It’s pretty clear that the steps that you have been taking and it seems like based on Mike's laundry list that you are accelerating has everything to do with the optimization of this franchise. I wonder how you're weighing sort of pulling forward that optimization. And I mean, there’s always a continuous improvement process for every company, right? Is it better to just clean everything up this year for the sake of positive operating leverage? Could we think about cleaner '24 and '25 numbers when it comes to the expenses? Because I do think that it's very clear what the potential of this franchise is, but there's always adjustments here and there. I feel like your investors are less likely to see that visibility on that expense curve bend that you guys are aiming for?

Yeah. Let me try to break that up into two components if I understood you correctly. So the question is around the strategic parts of our business and optimizing those. You are seeing a bit of an acceleration around there. It’s not a dramatic shift, but there are some accelerated actions, and I think they’re good examples of those. You could argue they might be a little accelerated with some A, but if you’re going to the balance sheet side, will we do anything with the securities portfolio? The answer is no for now. There's not a good economic benefit, and we want to be long-term protectors of shareholder value. I think we will stay the course unless something changes dramatically that would cause us to shift our posture. Did that make sense?

Yeah. I was just wondering if you can tell your investors that your goal for '24 is really sort of cleaner quarters on expenses so that they could see that expense curve in terms of your GAAP EPS power?

Yeah. Relative to the first part of that, yes, that would be the goal. I think they’re getting cleaner every quarter and will continue on that path. When we have opportunities that we think are long-term beneficial, we’re not going to miss those. Your basic statement is we’ll have cleaner quarters in ‘24, yes. I think they get cleaner every quarter along that path.

Good morning, Bill. Good morning, Mike.

Good morning.

Clarke, this is directed to you on credit. You guys had very strong credit quality, obviously, but you perked my interest with something you said in the prepared remarks that charge-offs, again, they're low, went up by 3 basis points. You cited C&I, which was interesting to me. The question is, and then you also pointed out that the allowance was built up for CRE, but you talked about you're reducing your risk appetite in selected areas. Where are those areas, number one? In C&I, could you elaborate on what happened there? Comments also about your leverage loan portfolio that I assume is included in the C&I as well.

Great. Hey, Gerard.

Hey, Clarke. Why don't you start with that?

As far as what areas we're focused on, first and foremost, we're maintaining our through-the-cycle lending approach for our clients. We're not going to make dramatic shifts in our appetite or how we lend. We just want to be more cautious and prudent where it makes sense. Some of the areas we're focused on right now would be things you would expect: higher leverage, so leverage finance would be one, things like senior care given the market aspects of CRE, lower-end consumer, and so on. It's more about being cautious, but being consistent there for our clients. Regarding our leverage book, it’s performing very well. The portion you'd be focused on is about 3.6% of our total loans. Our portfolio is 50% investment grade. We have very modest hold levels. Our leverage multiples have come down over the last couple of years in that book. Overall, it is performing very well. Our NPLs are at 0.6%. Our NCOs are at 0.11%. So very good overall performance. In terms of the C&I losses in Q1, there's nothing episodic there. We're coming off extremely low levels. If we go back into 2022, we were in just a couple of basis point range, and we were up just toward a normalized range. There's nothing specific there.

Very good. Thank you, Clarke. Mike, you talked about the investment banking business, how you've built it out with some strategic hires over the last two years. We know the market conditions have been challenging. Are you comfortable with your revenue to expense area in investment banking now or do you need to see the revenues pick up as market conditions improve?

Yeah. I'll start there, and perhaps Bill may want to add something. The investment banking business is performing well. It was a bright spot for us in the first quarter. We have expectations that it will continue to perform well. Our pipelines remain solid. I think that a lot of this is driven by the fact that we’ve been adding high-caliber franchise-type talent to that platform, not just recently but consistently over the years. There are market interruptions, transaction markets, and deal markets are a little harder. But in the middle market and upper middle market space, where we feel like we've really got a powerful franchise, we continue to get deals done for our clients on the corporate and sponsor side. We’re still very supportive and optimistic about the investment banking business. We're managing it carefully and revenues will be highly correlated with expenses in that business, but that's always been the case.

Yeah. To your margin question, the investment banking business has always been a good margin business and has had a lot of discipline over a long period. Part of that sustainability, as you saw this quarter, is due to the strength of the franchise. Being able to leverage this incredible franchise and client base allows us opportunities across high-grade debt and equity. So it just creates more consistency and confidence in our revenue base.

Great. Thank you for the insights, gentlemen.

Allay, we've got time for one more question.

Hi. Good morning. I know we're running tight. Maybe we could get a comments from John about the operating environment for insurance this year. Also, if you could add on your thoughts about utilizing the increased optionality that the transaction has gotten you and what the M&A environment looks like for you? Thanks.

Hey, John. Do you want to…

Sure, John. This is John Howard. Thank you for the question. When I look at the environment from an insurance standpoint, it continues to be favorable. Pricing continues to be firm, if you think about insured values and rates, both affected by the inflationary environment we're experiencing. Those are tailwinds for us. There are some capacity headwinds, particularly around catastrophe-exposed property. Net-net, we will continue to see organic growth in insurance, and I do expect our organic growth to improve over the course of the year. To your question about acquisitions, the market response to the Stone Point transaction has been very positive. We've gotten great feedback from teammates, clients, insurance companies, business partners, and acquisition candidates. We feel very well positioned.

Great. Thanks.

Thanks, John. Okay. That completes our earnings call. If you have any additional questions, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team. Thank you for your interest in Truist. We know you guys will have a busy day, but we hope you have a great day. Allay, you can now disconnect the call.