Union Pacific Corp (UNP) — Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Thanks, Rob. And, good morning, it’s nice to come to you all from a beautiful morning here in Omaha. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Union Pacific’s second quarter results. I’m joined by our Chief Financial Officer, Jennifer Hamann; our Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales, Kenny Rocker; and our Executive Vice President of Operations, Eric Gehringer. As we dive into the discussion of the second quarter, you’ll hear that operating outdoors these past few months has not been easy, but I’m pleased with how we managed those challenges to drive strong financial results. It provides another proof point that our strategy is the right one to drive success. Now, let’s discuss second quarter results starting on Slide 3. This morning, Union Pacific reported 2024 second quarter net income of $1.7 billion or $2.74 per share. This compares to 2023 second quarter net income of $1.6 billion or $2.57 per share. Second quarter operating revenue was up 1% as solid core pricing gains and slightly increased volume were reduced by a negative business mix and lower fuel surcharge revenue. If you’re normalizing for the yearly change in fuel, freight revenue was up 2% versus 2023. Reported expenses year-over-year were down 4%. This is impressive work by the team to offset the high inflationary pressure we’ve experienced in a flat volume environment, even when adjusted for one-time items and fuel. Our second quarter operating ratio of 60.0% improved 300 basis points versus last year and despite some challenges, we still showed sequential improvement. Overall, this quarter was another solid step toward our goal of leading the industry in safety, service, and operational excellence. I’ll let the team walk you through the quarter in more detail and then come back for a wrap up before we go to Q&A. So, we’ll start with Jennifer and the Q2 financials. Jennifer?

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Let’s start on Slide 5 with a walk-down of our second quarter income statement, where operating revenue of $6 billion increased 1% versus last year on slightly positive volume. As Kenny will highlight, this strong topline performance was supported by solid pricing gains and business wins against the backdrop of weak coal demand. Second quarter freight revenue totaled $5.6 billion, a 1% gain. Digging into the revenue components, strong core pricing gains partially offset by an unfavorable business mix added 150 basis points to freight revenue. Double-digit growth in international intermodal volume was the primary contributor to the negative mix dynamic and further compounded by an overall decline in our higher average revenue per car industrial business. Slightly positive volumes in the quarter added 50 basis points to freight revenue. Lastly, fuel surcharge revenue of $669 million declined 5% as lower fuel prices impacted freight revenue by 75 basis points. Excluding fuel surcharge, freight revenue grew 2% as the team continues to pace revenue growth faster than volume. Wrapping up the topline, other revenue declined 6% as a result of lower intermodal accessorials and less demand for auto parts shipments at our Loup subsidiary. Switching to expenses, second quarter operating expense of $3.6 billion decreased $152 million versus 2023 as we drove productivity across most cost categories. Compensation and benefits expense declined 6% versus last year as we reduced headcount 5% and generated positive productivity. Although our training pipeline is significantly reduced compared to 2023, train service employees increased 1% as we continue to carry more train service employees as a buffer for our operations and to offset the impact of new labor agreements. The remainder of the workforce decreased 9% as we continue to focus on delayering and pushing work down in the organization. Last year’s expenses included a $67 million one-time ratification payment. Last month, we completed the transfer of around 350 mechanical employees to Metro in Chicago. Going forward, this transfer will lower both other revenue and our expenses by roughly $15 million a quarter. Excluding last year’s one-time labor payment, cost per employee in the second quarter increased 4% as we continue to drive for better overall efficiency. Fuel expense in the quarter declined 6% on a 5% decrease in fuel prices from $2.86 per gallon to $2.73 per gallon. We overcame a challenging operating environment and less fuel efficient freight mix to improve our fuel consumption rate by 1% largely due to locomotive productivity. Equipment and other rents declined 12%, reflecting improved cycle times and lower lease expenses, partially offset by business mix. Other expenses decreased 4% as we recorded a few one-time items in the quarter, including a $46 million gain from an intermodal equipment sale and $23 million of additional environmental expense at a legacy California remediation site. Second quarter operating income of $2.4 billion increased 9% versus last year. Below the line, other income increased 11% due to interest received on tax refund claims while interest expense declined 6% on lower average debt levels. Second quarter net income of $1.7 billion and earnings per share of $2.74 improved 7% versus 2023. Our quarterly operating ratio of 60% improved by 300 basis points year-over-year. Key here is that our core operations drove 160 basis points of OR improvement and $0.21 of EPS growth year-over-year. This is a continuation of the momentum we’ve created these past three quarters. Second quarter cash from operations totaled $4 billion, up $175 million versus last year. Growth in operating income and 2023 labor agreement payments were partially offset by higher income tax payments, resulting in the increase in cash from operations and our free cash flow improvement, up 43% to $853 million. As stated back in April, we restarted share repurchases late in the second quarter. Although we plan to ramp up repurchases through the year, we started slowly with just over $100 million repurchased in June. Combined with our dividend payments, we’ve returned $1.7 billion to shareholders year-to-date. Ultimately, our adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio finished the quarter at 2.8 times and we continue to be rated A by our three credit rating agencies.

Wrapping up on Slide 7, as we’ve reached the midway point of 2024, there remains some uncertainty about the recovery in the second half that many were forecasting. As Kenny will detail, there are definitely markets where we’re seeing growth, driven by our business development efforts. There are also some challenge markets, particularly coal. Operationally, the team is making great progress towards our long-term goals to be the best in safety, service, and operational excellence. This is reflected in the progress in our safety and performance metrics, including our margins. Importantly, we believe the trend is indicative of where we can get to long-term, and each successive quarter is a step on our way to winning. We are highly confident in our ability to generate pricing above inflation and still expect freight revenue to outpace volume in 2024. We also remain committed to our long-term capital allocation strategy, which includes last week’s announcement of a 3% increase in our dividend. This increase represents the 18th year in a row of annual dividend increases. With share repurchases, we expect to repurchase around $1.5 billion in 2024 while maintaining our current leverage. Finally, I’d summarize our second quarter financial performance as strong and our confidence in the future even stronger as we continue to unlock the potential of our great franchise. We’re excited to execute our strategy in the second half and lay out more of our long-term thoughts at our Investor Day in September. Kenny?

Thank you, Jennifer, and good morning. As Jennifer mentioned, we had a solid second quarter, especially if you consider the lower volume from coal. Freight revenues totaled $5.6 billion for the quarter, which was up 2% excluding fuel surcharges due to strong core pricing and a slight increase in volume. Let’s jump right in and talk about the key drivers in each of our business groups. Starting with our Bulk segment, revenue for the quarter was down 2% compared to last year on a 5% decrease in volume and a 3% increase in average revenue per car, driven by solid core pricing gains and a positive traffic mix. However, if you exclude coal, Bulk revenue for the quarter was up 4% year-over-year and volume grew by 6%. Coal volume was down 23% in the quarter due to the market's ongoing secular decline, coupled with challenges from lower natural gas prices and higher inventory levels. Fertilizer volumes increased due to strong export demand for Canpotex potash and easier year-over-year comparisons from a 2023 customer outage. In addition, the grain products business was favorable because of strong demand for renewable diesel, renewable ethanol demand, and new business wins. Moving to Industrial, revenue increased 2% for the quarter despite a 3% decrease in volume and a 5% increase in average revenue per car. Strong core pricing gains and a positive mix in traffic were partially offset by lower fuel surcharges. Our strong business development efforts in petroleum allowed us to capitalize on opportunities. Petrochemical volume continued to grow due to improved domestic demand in plastics and strong business development wins in our industrial chemicals markets from customers located along the Gulf Coast. However, challenges from high inventories and rainy weather in the South negatively impacted our rock volumes. Premium revenue for the quarter was up 4% on a 6% increase in volume but with a 2% decrease in average revenue per car, reflecting negative mix, lower fuel surcharges, and truck market pressure. Automotive volumes were positive due to business development wins with Volkswagen and General Motors, but were offset by unplanned decreases in production affecting auto parts shipments. Intermodal volumes remain strong due to West Coast import demand and positive domestic growth despite market conditions in our Parcels segment. Now, turning to Slide 10. Here’s our outlook for the balance of 2024 for the key markets we serve. Starting with Bulk, coal is expected to remain challenged as inventories stay high and natural gas futures remain at levels that make coal less competitive. For grain, the markets currently look stable and healthy, although global export sales are off to a slow start. Crop conditions also look promising, and we expect incremental renewable diesel production to come online in California. Turning to Industrial, our outlook remains the same as we presented during our last earnings call. We expect our rock market will not match last year’s record volume; however, both petroleum and petrochemical markets will remain favorable due to our focus on business development supported by our investments in the Gulf Coast. For Premium, we expect continued strength in intermodal even though we have seen imports driving pockets of increasing demand. On the domestic side, the overall market remains soft. Our improved service product alongside our diversified set of private asset owners and IMCs provide Union Pacific with better positioning when opportunities arise. We are optimistic that automotive will continue growing year-over-year due to business development wins, despite some softening in the market. In summary, I’m proud of the commercial team and their dedication to filling the volume gap we're seeing from coal. On the pricing side, we are achieving solid price results to overcome inflation challenges and delivering consistent and efficient service that we promised our customers.

Thank you, Kenny, and good morning. Moving to Slide 12. As you heard from Jim, Mother Nature delivered powerful weather events throughout the quarter, impacting flooding across both our northern and southern regions. However, we aren’t here to make excuses. Leveraging our intense focus on operational excellence and detailed contingency plans, the team quickly acted to mitigate the impact by adjusting trip plans and deploying temporary buffer resources to safely restore operations. I’m very proud of our frontline employees who worked tirelessly to repair our infrastructure to minimize customer impact. Starting with safety, we continue to drive improvements, building on the momentum from the first quarter. For the second quarter, both derailment and personal injury rates improved year-over-year. While I am proud of the team for making this progress, we will not rest until every employee goes home safe to their loved ones. Freight car velocity remained flat in the second quarter compared to 2023 as improvements in terminal dwell were offset by weather-affected train speeds. The opportunity here lies in improving terminal dwell performance by reducing unnecessary car touches across the network. On the service front, intermodal SPI improved by four points, while manifest and auto SPI remained flat. Although we worked hard to minimize the impact of weather on our service product, we know customers felt the impact in affected areas. Let's review our key efficiency metrics on Slide 13. The team remains highly focused on cost control, utilizing technology and investments to drive productivity throughout our operations. We saw year-over-year improvements across all our metrics, with locomotive productivity improving by 6% compared to the second quarter of 2023, driven by enhanced network fluidity and asset utilization. We’ve been able to flex our locomotive fleet efficiently, with units readily available to adjust to varying volume levels. Workforce productivity, which includes all employees, improved by 5% versus 2023. Train length improved by 2% compared to the second quarter of 2023 and by 3% sequentially due to increased intermodal volume combined with safety technologies like Precision Train Builder. Our second-quarter result was a quarterly record, with June marking the first month ever with train length over 9,600 feet. This is a remarkable achievement by the team as they continue to generate mainline capacity for future growth. As we implement new technology throughout our operations, we are also building new processes powered by automation and real-time analytics, creating new capabilities for Union Pacific and our customers.

Thank you, Eric. Before we get to your questions, I’d like to quickly summarize what you’ve heard from our team. First, despite a challenging environment, we achieved strong financial results in the quarter. We continue to drive efficiency in the network, and the commercial team has done a great job generating pricing for the value we provide our customers. Kenny provided an overview of second-quarter volumes and some updated insights for the year ahead. It’s worth stating that when you exclude coal, our total volume was up 3% in the second quarter, demonstrating that even in a tough freight environment, we are winning with customers to bring new business to the railroad. Eric walked you through the strides we’re making in safety, service, and operational excellence. In the first half of the year, our safety metrics improved, but we still have work to do. While our service was challenged this quarter, I’m pleased with our ability to recover and our ongoing improvements in operational efficiency. This quarter presented its challenges, but I’m very pleased with the results we achieved.

Good morning, Brandon.

Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking the question. Jim, if I recall, it was almost a year ago that you got appointed CEO and I think you said publicly to give you a year and then let’s look back and judge how things went. I think you clearly articulated the coal headwinds in the quarter. How would you evaluate the past year in terms of operational improvement, network performance, and especially customer growth which you hinted at?

Yes, Brandon, I appreciate the question, and you’re correct. I think they announced my appointment last year on the 26th. So yes, it’s a year. I actually didn’t start work until the 14th of August, but that’s okay, a couple of weeks doesn’t make a difference. If I look at the quarter, I’m very happy with how we’ve progressed on this railroad. Starting above the line, Kenny and the entire team have done a great job of addressing inflationary pressures with the contracts that were signed. Revenue performance against our volume growth continues and we will keep seeing that as we go through the year. Business development has been a priority; our leadership has spent significant time with customers exploring growth opportunities and we’ve invested in developing and expanding facilities across our network. The best part is that our service levels are strong, enabling us to discuss how we can work together moving forward rather than just meeting service expectations. I also feel confident about operational improvements in metrics like car velocity, dwell, and locomotive efficiency. While I cannot provide a specific target for operating ratio, it is promising to achieve a 160 basis point improvement this last quarter year-over-year in operating ratio despite the coal volume drop. We’re not a team that makes excuses. We acknowledge the challenges posed by coal, but we’re leveraging opportunities in our network in Mexico with our 26% ownership of FXE to drive future growth.

I appreciate the answer, Jim. Thank you.

Good morning, Scott.

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Jennifer, I know mix can swing on you positive or negative. What are your thoughts on mix based on your volume outlook for the back half of the year? Additionally, even adjusting for mix, yield growth seems relatively muted in the context of higher inflation. So, I continue to ask when do you think we can return to inflation-plus pricing that is truly margin accretive?

A couple of things there, Scott. On the mix side, a lot of the factors that influenced our volumes in the second quarter will also influence us into the third quarter. International intermodal is strong, coal is weaker, and while there are great business development opportunities in the industrial segment, there is some softness there. This mix dynamic may continue to negatively affect our mix. As for our pricing environment, the team is doing well driving prices where possible through strong customer relationships and service enhancements. Importantly, I see positive margin growth and encourage you to focus on that as we get further access to contracts that will give us more upside.

Thank you.

Thanks for the question, Scott.

Good morning, Jason.

Thank you, operator. Jim and team, good morning. Nice to see you recover from some of the weather in the quarter. I want to focus on something Kenny mentioned regarding weakness in the rock business. We’ve heard that infrastructure projects planned are really slow to get off the ground. Is that part of the weakness behind that, or what’s your perspective in the marketplace?

Yes, Jason, you’re right. We’ve observed slowdowns in NLG products in the Gulf due to delays, in addition to a general decline in demand. The weather has not helped us in the second quarter. However, I can assure you, Eric’s team is doing everything they can to capture available volume by maximizing efficiency.

That makes sense. And, Kenny, regarding delayed projects, do you anticipate any lift as we move into ‘25, or is it a more of a wait-and-see approach?

I believe it’s a wait-and-see situation. It’s hard for us to forecast what many of the customers or contractors will ultimately decide. We’re just staying prepared.

Thanks for the question.

Good morning, Jon.

Thank you. Good morning. Jim, do you think you reach a limit on productivity improvements without volume? What you have accomplished on locomotives and workforce in a flat volume environment is impressive, but do you think you hit a ceiling at some point?

No, I don’t see that. I believe we can continue to improve. I don’t expect our volume to remain flat. While it’s easier with increasing volume, we are implementing technologies and strategies that will help us improve our efficiency even in a flat volume scenario. I’m confident that as we advance, we can achieve more improvements.

Great. Thanks, Jim.

Thank you.

Good morning, Stephanie.

Hi, good morning, thank you. Continuing on the previous question, we’ve seen nice margin performance in the first half of the year. Can you elaborate on how the mix headwinds and costs of initiatives may influence normal seasonality for margins as the year progresses?

Stephanie, I previously addressed the overall outlook on margins. Kenny, how do you see our pricing strategy evolving in the coming months with consideration to inflationary pressures?

Yes, absolutely. When examining our revenue growth strategy, we emphasize both volume and pricing. Our commercial team is clearly articulating inflationary pressures. We are making strategic pricing decisions as contracts come up for renewal, actively maximizing margin expansion opportunities while ensuring we consistently provide good service.

So, no significant seasonal influences on performance as we look ahead?

Looking at seasonal patterns, it greatly depends on volume trends. Generally, quarters with stronger volume growth correlate to better margin improvement. Sequential comparisons of volumes are key moving forward.

Thanks, Stephanie.

Good morning, Brian.

Hey, good morning, team. Thank you for the question. A couple for Kenny. Can you discuss the strength of international intermodal? Are there expectations for that to carry over into domestic markets, and how does that impact UP?

Yes, we’ve experienced robust growth in international intermodal. Some of that has spilled over into domestic markets, and our product development investments have been beneficial. Recent weather-related labor issues in Canada have temporarily affected capacity, but we’re working to ensure we maintain our growth trajectory.

For future perspectives at Investor Day, will we discuss a multi-year growth strategy, particularly concerning truckload conversion?

We want to focus on our forward-looking strategies rather than past performance. I can assure you that we have exciting developments ahead and are eager to share our vision about what we believe is achievable.

Understood, thank you.

Thanks, Brian.

Good morning, Ken.

Good morning. Considering service challenges this past quarter, and recovery efforts, do you foresee improved car velocity going forward without storms, and could operating ratio improve sequentially as a result?

Operationally, we should always focus on metrics like car velocity and dwell time. We strive for consistent improvement, but sequential performance may not always see the desired increase. However, I believe in our team's ability to optimize operations. Revenue growth is crucial for operating ratio and margins, and while not every quarter will show sequential improvement, I see great potential as we advance.

Thanks, Jim.

You’re welcome.

Good morning.

Good morning. Regarding the weakness in industrial markets you mentioned, are signals suggesting conditions may be either strengthening or weakening? Could you also provide details on where you're seeing the most significant opportunities for new business growth?

We’ve observed economic indicators, such as industrial production and housing starts, showing weakness. However, we’re focusing on business development. Renewable diesel is an emerging area, along with petrochemical markets along the Gulf. We’re dedicated to expanding our presence within these segments. Premium markets like Mexico are positive as well.

Could you specify which industrial segments or customer groups provide valuable new business opportunities?

The primary focus continues to be on renewable diesel, on the petrochemical side in the Gulf, and we’re expanding both domestic processes as well as international intermodal operations. We’re actively working to create our own markets to grow.

Thanks, Tom.

Good morning, Chris.

Hey, good morning. Kenny, regarding pricing, as we see incremental demand for domestic intermodal picking up for 2024, are rates beginning to firm up, and what does that indicate for you in the longer term?

To clarify, domestic intermodal pricing has faced downward pressure for over 18 months, and I can’t predict when pricing will rebound. However, we’ve seen a year-over-year increase despite the challenges. Our strong investments continue to optimize our offering and product delivery.

We are committed to maintaining our pricing discipline and continuing to engage our customers for long-term growth.

Good morning, Walter.

Thank you, operator. Jim, you previously mentioned your operating ratio reached between 55.1% in the past. Do you believe there are limiting factors today, whether cyclical or structural, that may hinder achieving that target?

I appreciate the question, Walter. We recognize historical performance while considering current structural realities like labor agreements affecting costs. While they’re challenging, we’re managing them the best we can. It’s about utilizing our network efficiently and leveraging more business while focusing on continuous improvements and optimization.

Thank you for the insight.

Good morning, Ben.

Thanks for the update. I was curious about the average train length, which you mentioned has reached an all-time high. Can you discuss potential contributing factors like increased international intermodal and decreased coal, and is there potential for longer train lengths moving forward?

Absolutely, Ben. We can indeed continue to grow our train lengths. In the second quarter, we maintained a 2% year-over-year improvement and achieved a record length of 9,600 feet in June. This accomplishment underscores hard work, and our metrics indicate success amidst other challenges indicating that productivity remains high while investing in technology.

Thank you.

Good morning, Jordan.

Good morning. Following up on commodity outlooks, would you say conditions are improving or worsening since your last update? Additionally, regarding coal, what’s the outlook as we approach the second half of the year concerning year-over-year pressures?

On coal, the path forward remains unpredictable due to fluctuating natural gas prices; we’re actively engaging customers to develop demand strategies. In terms of international intermodal strength, I believe that can positively influence overall performance alongside stable grain markets that are generous. Looking ahead, we’re prepared for any market dynamics including renewable projects and strong domestic grain demand.

Thank you for your insights, Jordan.

Good morning, Bascome.

Good morning, Jim. You and Jennifer both discussed the current inflationary pressures and costs. Can you help clarify where we are tracking for inflation in terms of labor agreements and purchased services?

Heading into the year, we anticipated full-year inflation around 5%, and as of now, we're close to that mark. We’re seeing improving conditions in some purchased service areas, which is encouraging. Comp and benefits do remain significant, but we manage these costs through strategic productivity initiatives.

So, just to confirm, moving into next year, is it reasonable to expect inflation around 5% rather than prior levels of 2-3%?

It’s too early to make definite predictions for next year. I hope for a number beneath 5%. A 2% inflation rate may not be achievable, but we’ll see.

Thank you for the question, Bascome.

Good morning, Ravi.

Good morning. This is Christyne McGarvey on for Ravi. I wanted to circle back to the business development conversation. Have you noticed any significant changes in the makeup of your pipeline or shifts in customer behaviors?

The pipeline is strong and robust. While conversion rates may not have shifted, realization rates have fluctuated slightly. We monitor macroeconomic indicators closely as they influence demand and our ability to convert prospects to customers. We are actively working on product development to address the shifts.

Thank you.

Good morning, Daniel.

Hey, good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking my question about capital efficiency. What are your thoughts on the assets you have today, particularly with fleet flexibility? How do you balance the need to refresh your fleet while considering an environment with potential volume growth?

We build our capital plan from the bottom up and are comfortable with the current projection of $3.4 billion for this year, and we don’t foresee substantial changes in this plan moving forward. We manage our capital efficiently and are prepared to adapt if necessary; we prioritize investments that drive business growth while maintaining operational efficiency.

Yes, and as our free cash flow increases, share repurchases will be a priority after funding the business and maintaining our dividend.

Great, thank you.

Thanks for the question.

Thank you for joining, David.

Kenny, a question about intermodal pricing for the domestic market. With the truck markets remaining weak, are you seeing any signs of rates firming up month-to-month as we approach the second half of the year?

We’ve been in a period of declining or flat pricing for over 18 months. It’s hard to predict when things will change. However, we've also noted a year-over-year increase in our domestic intermodal revenue, supported by strong product development efforts to prepare for future shifts.

We remain disciplined in our pricing approach and keep close relationships with our customers to navigate changes effectively.

Thank you for being here this morning. We’re excited about what we’ve been able to deliver as a team for our shareholders and the communities we serve. Our commitment to safety and operational excellence remains paramount, and I’m pleased we’ve made progress in addressing the challenges we faced. I’m optimistic about our future and look forward to our Investor Day in Dallas, where we’ll provide more insight into our strategic vision for the next few years. Thank you for listening.