MHGC Fair Value Estimate
Is Morgans Hotel Group Company (MHGC) fairly priced at $2.15? We used 3 separate valuation methods on real SEC data. Here's what they show.
All 3 models say it's worth around
$2.10
Composite fair value (average of 3 models)
Within 5% of fair valueFair value
$2.10
Market price
$2.15
What would I earn buying today?
(CAGR)
-0.5%
per year
What's a safe entry price?
(margin of safety)
$1.78
15% buffer below fair value
Do the models agree?
(model consensus)
0/2
mixed signals
How we got this number
Each model asks a different question about MHGC's value. Tap any one to see the exact math — every number comes from a real SEC filing.
Models disagree significantly — fair values range from $1.20 to $3.00. This stock is hard to value with simple formulas. A full DCF analysis with custom inputs would give more confidence.
Think these models are too simple?
They are — on purpose. For deeper analysis using free cash flow, growth decay, and terminal value, try the full DCF Calculator. Or let X-Ray guide you through a full 5-step investment review.
About the Fair Value Calculator
This tool estimates intrinsic value using three independent models: the Graham Number (earnings × book value), a PEG-Adjusted fair P/E approach, and an Earnings-Based DCF that projects future earnings. All three are averaged for a composite fair value with upside or downside versus market price.
Using multiple models matters — one formula never tells the full story. When all three point in the same direction, the signal gains weight.
How It Works
Graham Number: sqrt(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — a conservative upper bound based on earnings and net asset value.
PEG-Adjusted: Computes a fair P/E by matching the growth rate (PEG benchmark of 1.0), then applies that to current earnings.
Earnings-Based DCF: Projects future earnings, prices them using the sector median P/E, then discounts back to today.
The composite averages all three equally. Model fitness ratings tell you which results to trust most for this stock.
Is Morgans Hotel Group Company Fairly Priced?
ExampleThree valuation methods were applied to Morgans Hotel Group Company (MHGC) using live SEC filing data. Each one asks a different question — and they don't always agree.
Graham Number — Benjamin Graham's formula: sqrt(22.5 × EPS × Book Value). For MHGC with EPS of $0.15 and book value of $-6.02, the Graham Number lands at $N/A (negative inputs). This model was designed for asset-heavy firms — it often sets a low floor for asset-light companies.
PEG Ratio — Peter Lynch's insight: a stock's P/E should match its growth rate. MHGC grows earnings at 8.0% per year, so a fair P/E of 8.0x gives a PEG-adjusted fair value of $$1.20. The market P/E of 9.8x is higher than what growth justifies.
Earnings-Based DCF — Projects earnings 5 years forward at 8.0%, prices the future stock using the Consumer Cyclical sector median P/E of 20x (not MHGC's own inflated multiple), then discounts back at 8%. Result: $$3.00.
| Model | Fair Value | vs. Market Price ($2.15) |
|---|---|---|
| Graham Number | N/A | — |
| PEG-Adjusted | $1.20 | 79% above |
| Earnings-Based DCF | $3.00 | 28% below |
The three models give mixed signals for MHGC. This often means the company has characteristics (like high growth combined with low book value) that different models interpret differently. Use the fitness ratings to decide which models to weight more.
Frequently asked questions
The Fair Value Calculator runs three separate models on every S&P 500 stock. The Graham Number uses earnings and book value to find a safe price floor. The PEG Ratio checks if the P/E ratio matches earnings growth. The Earnings-Based DCF projects future earnings and brings them back to today's value. We average all three for a combined fair value, and show how much they agree.
Try it now — run all three valuation models for MHGC with live financial data.
Back to calculatorAll data from Morgans Hotel Group Company SEC filings via Tiingo · Calculations by GoodMoat · Last refreshed May 18, 2026
This is not financial advice. Fair value models are estimates based on past data and assumptions.