April 30, 2026 Market Wrap

April 30 was dominated by a split screen between mega-cap tech earnings and a sharp move in energy markets. The biggest corporate story came from the AI spending cycle, with Microsoft lifting its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to nearly $190 billion and Meta raising its 2026 capex range to $125 billion-$145 billion even as it posted 33% Q1 revenue growth and guided Q2 revenue to $58 billion-$61 billion. Those numbers kept the focus on cloud and AI infrastructure demand, but they also triggered a late-day selloff in Meta shares, which were reported down 7% and then 9% for their largest single-day decline in recent history. Nvidia was also in the spotlight for a different reason: its B300 server was said to be priced at $1 million in China because of U.S. curbs, and the stock fell 4% to around $201 from a $209.25 close on rotation concerns. The broader semiconductor group remained active, with Intel up 115% in April, Broadcom up more than 110% over the past year, and several leveraged chip funds swinging sharply as traders chased and then faded the AI trade. Earnings and guidance across large-cap tech and internet names set the tone for the rest of the session. Amazon forecast second-quarter revenue of $194 billion-$199 billion, below the consensus midpoint of $198.5 billion, while Apple headed into its after-close report with analysts looking for $1.94 in EPS and $109.73 billion in revenue. A prediction market put 94% odds on Apple beating expectations, and Apple also faced a fresh antitrust dispute in India, where it said the regulator was overstepping judicial authority. Qualcomm delivered a Q2 beat and said Chinese OEM revenue may return to sequential growth in Q4, helping offset some of the caution elsewhere in semis. Outside the megacaps, Xerox posted a Q1 earnings beat with revenue up 27% to $1.85 billion and saw its shares jump 35%, while SoFi held full-year guidance flat despite record Q1 revenue of $1.1 billion and dropped more than 13%. Cigna beat Q1 estimates and raised outlook, but the stock still slipped as the company outlined an exchange exit and an eviCore strategic review. VICI Properties also raised 2026 AFFO guidance to $2.44-$2.47 per share after earnings. Macro data and commodities added a more cautious backdrop. U.S. Q1 GDP missed expectations, Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.2 in April from 52.8, and Treasury yields pared gains after the GDP miss. At the same time, Brent crude surged more than 20% in a week to top $122 a barrel amid the Iran war, with Mohamed El-Erian warning the rally may continue. That oil move helped frame the day’s broader risk tone, even as U.S. equity futures rose early on the back of mega-cap tech earnings and then the market digested the weaker growth data. The dollar also drew attention after headlines said the RBI’s short dollar book surged past $100 billion for the first time, a development tied to USD/INR implications. In the background, Belgium’s plan to nationalise nuclear power plants added another energy-policy headline to a day already shaped by power, fuel, and infrastructure needs. A separate cluster of headlines centered on Bitcoin, treasury accumulation, and the market for crypto-linked products. Strategy added $255 million in Bitcoin through a 3,376 BTC purchase funded by a 1.45 million share sale, extending its corporate treasury accumulation. Bitwise’s CIO also credited Strategy’s STRC-funded Bitcoin buys for recent price gains, while multiple ETF-focused headlines highlighted how Bitcoin funds remain a live trading theme even with Bitcoin down 19% in 2026 and prices holding around $71,000. Marathon Digital announced a $1.5 billion acquisition of Long Ridge Energy, a deal that adds power capacity for AI and Bitcoin mining. Elsewhere in speculative and event-driven names, GameStop said its retro section will roll out to all U.S. stores by May and launched a Power Packs digital trading card platform tied to PSA-graded physical cards, reinforcing its effort to build new revenue streams. Avis Budget Group was cited as a cautionary example of a squeeze-and-collapse arc, with its stock having surged from $148 to $847.70 before falling to $182.01, and a separate headline described the end of that short squeeze as a 70% crash. Looking ahead, the main items to watch are Apple’s after-close earnings, any follow-through in Meta and Nvidia after the capex and China-related headlines, and whether the oil rally continues to dominate the macro tape. Traders will also be watching how the weaker GDP and Chicago PMI data feed into Treasury yields, whether semiconductor ETFs can hold gains after another volatile session, and whether Bitcoin-related stocks and funds keep responding to Strategy’s latest purchase and the broader price backdrop. On the corporate calendar, the market will also keep an eye on Tesla after the delayed Semi rollout and renewed OpenAI lawsuit scrutiny involving Elon Musk, plus any further developments in the rail-merger refile from Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern.