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Amcor Plc

Exchange: NYSESector: Consumer CyclicalIndustry: Packaging & Containers

Amcor Plc

Current Price

$38.09

+3.82%

GoodMoat Value

$55.40

45.4% undervalued
Profile
Valuation (TTM)
Market Cap$17.60B
P/E25.96
EV$33.13B
P/B1.50
Shares Out462.05M
P/Sales0.79
Revenue$22.19B
EV/EBITDA11.50

Amcor Plc (AMCR) — Q4 2016 Earnings Call Transcript

Apr 4, 202615 speakers5,865 words71 segments

AI Call Summary AI-generated

The 30-second take

Amcor reported a year of progress, achieving record earnings and improving margins in its main US business. However, the company faced some operational problems in its global division that hurt profits. Management is focused on fixing these issues and executing its plans to return to stronger growth in the coming year.

Key numbers mentioned

  • Adjusted earnings per share (full year 2016) was $2.69.
  • US Packaging operating profit return on sales was 15.3%.
  • Operating cash flow was $437 million.
  • Capital investment was $208 million.
  • Shares repurchased were 3 million.
  • Currency translation negatively impacted operating profit by $8.3 million.

What management is worried about

  • Operational issues in the global business, particularly in Latin America, impacted 2016 performance.
  • The prolonged economic downturn in Latin America affected unit volumes.
  • There was a slower pace of bringing the expanded Oshkosh healthcare facility up to speed.
  • The company experienced some weakness in end markets like health, hygiene, towel, and tissue overwrap in the fourth quarter.
  • Management is not confident that US end-market growth will be robust, thinking it might be "zero to one" instead of a given 1%.

What management is excited about

  • The US packaging segment reached its long-term target margin range of 15% to 18%.
  • The global business delivered nice organic growth of 7.9% in 2016, excluding currency and acquisitions.
  • The company is launching a formal global leveraging team to capitalize on sharing technologies globally, especially in Latin America and Asia.
  • The asset recapitalization program has provided meaningful improvement and allows pursuit of growth in less differentiated products.
  • The pricing analytics initiative is providing strategic, actionable information for commercial decisions.

Analyst questions that hit hardest

  1. Scott Gaffner (Barclays) - Free cash flow and working capital: Management gave a long, detailed answer admitting disappointment, breaking down the shortfall into payables and inventory, and expressing confidence in existing plans to improve.
  2. George Staphos (Bank of America) - Margin guidance and operational fixes: The response required clarification from the IR director and CEO, who confirmed US margins would be flat and defensively stated the commercialization process was "behind us and we've moved on."
  3. Anthony Pettinari (Citi) - Pricing analytics benefits: The CEO gave an unusually long response, explaining the tool became more strategic for protecting business than tactical for raising prices, which recalibrated its near-term margin benefit.

The quote that matters

Execution is front and center in 2017, all areas of the business, every person, every function, every day.

William Austen — President and Chief Executive Officer

Original transcript

EW
Erin WintersDirector of Investor Relations

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2016 conference call. Today is January 26, 2017. After today’s call, a replay will be available on our website, bemis.com, under the Investor Relations section. Joining me for this call today are Bemis Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Bill Austen; our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Clauer; and our Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, Jerry Krempa. Following Bill and Mike’s comments on our business and outlook, we’ll answer any questions you have. However, in order to allow everyone the opportunity to participate, we do ask that you limit yourself to one question at a time with a related follow-up and then fall back into the queue for any additional questions. At this time, I’ll direct you to our website, bemis.com, under the Investor Relations tab, where you’ll find our press release and supplemental schedules. In Mike’s discussion of the financials, he’ll specifically be referring to pages three and four of the supplemental. On today’s call, we’ll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures as we talk about our performance. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP measures that we consider most comparable can be found in the press release and supplemental schedules on our website. And, finally, a reminder that statements regarding future performance of the company made during this call are forward-looking and are therefore subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from historical, expected, or projected results due to a variety of factors. Please refer to Bemis company’s regular SEC filings, including the most recently filed Form 10-K, to review these risk factors. Now, I'll turn the call over to Bill.

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Erin. And good morning, everyone. As I reflect on 2016 we made progress, most importantly, we truly helped our customers win with new product innovations and improved quality and service. We continue to improve toward our long-term financial objectives. Looking at the full year, we achieved record adjusted earnings per share of $2.69, an 8% increase over last year on a currency neutral basis. We increased operating profit return on sales in our US packaging segment to 15.3%, a 100 basis point increase over the prior year and putting us in the range of our long-term goal of 15% to 18% in this segment. This improvement was fueled primarily by the success of our asset recapitalization program. We generated $437 million of operating cash flow. We acquired SteriPack in April, a great acquisition, in addition to our growing healthcare packaging business. We invested $208 million in capital to expand and improve our business, positioning us well for the long-term. And we returned value to shareholders through our 33rd annual dividend increase and through the repurchase of 3 million shares of stock. We continued implementing our strategy of accelerating growth, focusing innovation and continuously improving all we do to deliver strong financial performance. That said, 2016 had some operational issues, particularly in our global business; we have and will continue to remedy these, and I am confident that we will show improvement in 2017. I'll turn the call over to Mike now to discuss details of our 2016 financial performance and 2017 guidance. And then I'll come back to the call to discuss my view of key priorities as we enter 2017. Mike?

MC
Michael ClauerVice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Bill, and good morning. We reported adjusted earnings of $0.67 per share for the fourth quarter and $2.69 for the full-year of 2016, an 11.7% increase over the prior fourth-quarter and a 7.8% increase over the prior year on a constant currency basis. Total company gross margins for the full year at 21.16% were roughly in line with the prior year. This reflects the benefits of our asset recapitalization program offset by operational issues in our global business during the year. I will comment next on each reportable segment followed by overall company performance and then wrap up with guidance for 2017. First, US Packaging, following page 3 of the supplemental schedules starting first with Q4, sales dollars in our US segment declined 3.6% in the quarter. Unit volumes were up 1% in the quarter. We delivered on all expected new or incremental business this quarter, so I am satisfied that our commercialization process has been rectified to deliver our long-term growth plans. While volume could have been better, fourth quarters can be unpredictable because of varying shipment patterns driven by individual customers' year-end needs. Looking at full-year net sales in US, dollars declined 4.6% compared to the prior year. Volumes were up nearly 1% for the full year. Of the remaining decline in the full year net sales for US Packaging, about half related to lower resin prices that are passed through, which is neutral to profit and the other half to mix driven by the success of our asset recapitalization program. US Packaging operating profit return on sales for 2016 was 15.3% compared to 14.3% in the prior year into our long-term target range of 15% to 18% in the U.S. This improvement was driven primarily by efficiencies from our asset recapitalization program. Moving to our Global Packaging segment, net sales were up 4.5%. Currency translation reduced sales by 10.7% driven by currencies in Latin America and Europe that devalued. The April acquisition of SteriPack contributed a 7.3% increase to net sales. Excluding the impact of currency and acquisitions, our global business delivered nice organic growth of 7.9% in 2016, driven primarily by positive sales price and mix, along with increased unit volumes of 1%. Some regional details on global volumes: full-year unit volumes were down 1% in Latin America, a function of the prolonged economic downturn, up strong single digits in Asia in our Healthcare Packaging business, and down low single digits in Europe. Global Packaging operating profit return on sales for 2016 was 8.2% compared to 8.8% the prior year, which was driven by operational issues in Latin America which have been corrected and also by the slower pace of bringing our expanded Oshkosh healthcare facility up to speed. We have made progress throughout the year and by the fourth quarter our margin profile increased to 9.4% as compared to 8.6% in prior year Q4, reflecting the benefits of improved price mix from sales and more specifically packages. Currency translation negatively impacted operating profit in 2016 by $8.3 million or about $0.06 of the total company's earnings per share. Now onto consolidated Bemis. Total Bemis Company SG&A expense for the full year was $392 million, down from $420 million last year. This reduction was due primarily to our pay-for-performance practices, along with currency and strong cost controls.

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks Mike. As I think about the progress we have made and also about the stability and longevity of our business, I remain confident in our continued improvement and our ability to perform well over the long-term. Our US business has seen much success in the past two years. We've expanded margins approximately 200 basis points and increased operating profit dollars almost $25 million. Our business in this region covers a broad spectrum of products and we have great position, particularly in high technology packaging. During 2016, we continued implementing our pricing analytics initiative that helps our sales and marketing teams make good commercial decisions based on data instead of gut instinct. This allows us, after inputting product spec and market data, to have actionable information at our fingertips, which allows us to make better strategic commercial decisions. When initiating this project, our sense was that we would primarily discover areas where we were below market and would almost with the data to surgically raise prices. While there are many examples of this, there are also instances identified by the analytics, particularly in process proteins, where the data showed that we were beyond the market; therefore, making us vulnerable. During 2016, we used this data in negotiations with a variety of customers to proactively protect good business for the long-term and to gain new incremental business. Considering the output of these negotiations, the midpoint of our guidance range assumes US packaging margin percent in 2017 to be roughly in line with 2016. In the US, we will continue our asset recapitalization program which has provided meaningful improvement to date, as it will into the future. Because of this program, we are able to pursue growth in less differentiated products that formerly we would have overlooked given our cost structure with the old inefficient equipment. We will continue to invest in new converting equipment that meets or exceeds our 15% ROIC hurdle rate. These continued improvements will help us return to margin expansion in the US in 2018. Turning to the global business. As Mike mentioned, we'll see nice improvement in 2017 compared to last year. We're making good progress in our restructuring program in Latin America. This plan not only helps our cost structure during the current tough economic environment but it positions us well for the long-term. We're also making great progress in leveraging our technologies globally. The success of our innovation engine in the US allows us to quickly capitalize on increasing package sophistication in our global business. We have and we'll continue to benefit from sharing our technologies globally and increasing package sophistication in Latin America and Asia. To propel this initiative further and faster, we recently launched a formal global leveraging team, led by the experience of Dan Rokjer, Vice President of Global Business Development, and embraced by the entire organization. We strongly believe that we have a clear competitive advantage and can meet or exceed our growth objectives by fully leveraging our global technology platforms. A key enabler to top-line growth is our ability to accelerate global collaboration within our business. This formal effort aligns three strategic full-time individuals who will support our global growth strategy. I am confident as we begin 2017, as we are focused on our customers, and when we help our customers win, we win. We continue to evolve toward a high-performance culture. We have high expectations of ourselves. We are focused on execution. Execution is front and center in 2017, all areas of the business, every person, every function, every day. And we'll continue to pursue earnings growth to create long-term sustainable shareholder value. With that, I'll turn the call over for questions.

SG
Scott GaffnerAnalyst - Barclays

Thanks. Good morning Bill, good morning Mike.

MC
Michael ClauerVice President and Chief Financial Officer

Morning.

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Scott.

SG
Scott GaffnerAnalyst - Barclays

Mike, I just wanted to talk a little bit about free cash flow and the shift in working capital. I guess you said that – it sounded like your customers were managing their own working capital or their own cash flow in the fourth quarter and maybe that flowed down a little bit to you, or was this more the payment terms issue? Can you talk about that in the fourth quarter and then what gives you confidence that we get it back in 2017?

MC
Michael ClauerVice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So first of all, on our own cash from operations, what I'm positive and happy about is that we – it wasn't a source of cash, so, excuse me, use of cash. So we’ve put the discipline in place, and we're really converting our cash pretty well. What I was disappointed and to be completely transparent, I thought we’d be in the range of $450 million to $455 million at the end of the year. And where we saw about the deficiencies, it was about half of that was just in payables, where we just quite didn't get the terms done that we wanted. The other half was just around the world a little bit extra inventory. The confidence I have next year is just the continued focus on this. The plans are in place. The initiatives are being hit on right now as we speak, as most of you are aware with the investment we're making in the new ERP platform in North America. We've talked about in the past that that will start as we implement the system and get completed. We'll drive inventory down as we get into late '17 and into '18. So, my confidence is, we have plans. I've seen them. I've sat down with the organization and I'm very comfortable at this point that they're committed to deliver.

SG
Scott GaffnerAnalyst - Barclays

All right. And when you look at the capital allocation for 2017, I think you said, obviously, the cash belongs to the shareholders. Do you have any share buyback included in the guidance today?

MC
Michael ClauerVice President and Chief Financial Officer

I do. We assume we're not going to delever. So if you – you can figure out that by taking cash from ops we’ve given you CapEx, you calculate dividend and there will be additional borrowing associated with not delivering, if we do grow our EBITDA. So I think you can back into it. And I think consistently with what you saw this year, we buy million shares a quarter unless there’s an eminent acquisition like SteriPack in Q2. And that's kind of what’s the same thing that happened in '15, we bought 3.3 million shares in the quarter, we didn't – it was Q4 when we bought Emplal.

GS
George StaphosAnalyst - Bank of America

Hi, everyone. Thanks for details and congratulations on the year. My questions are around margin. And I just want to make sure that I had heard correctly. First question, I think you said margin in '17 should be in aggregate comparable with '16, even though it sounds like global packaging will be up. Bill, you said that, US packaging would be roughly in line, but if I do the math it would suggest that maybe it's going to be a little bit below last year. So if you could confirm that and provide details around that. And then the second question I had on operations, you had mentioned that you are in the process of remedying the commercial elements of your business, the new product introductions that you're doing. I just wanted to clear up whether you're now – you feel confident with that process or it's still developing in Brazil, the restructuring and it sounds like it's ongoing. I just want to see where you are in terms of having closed that out? Thank you.

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Sure George. This is Bill. On the margin, what I said was that US packaging margins would be comparable to 2016. And global margins would be up in '17. Your second part of that question…

EW
Erin WintersDirector of Investor Relations

On the commercialization piece…

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

On the commercialization piece, sorry. We are confident that’s behind us and we've moved on. The point there is that if we looked at the new business that commercialized, the new business, meaning new products that commercialized in Q4, we are right on track with what we had anticipated. We feel that process is fixed, moving forward and it's behind us.

MW
Mark WildeAnalyst - BMO Capital Markets

Good morning, Bill. Good morning, Erin and Mike.

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning. Hi, Mark.

MW
Mark WildeAnalyst - BMO Capital Markets

I wondered, Bill, if you and Mike could just help on a year-over-year basis, help us think about some of the changes that were likely to see in 2017, the ones that I am focused on how much of a reduction is the drag from the issues in Latin America and the issues up at Oshkosh, how much year-to-year is there from SteriPack? How much benefit is there year-to-year from the Recap Program, plus Latin American restructuring? And then what are your pick up from just organic business growth?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I can start with Latin America. We kind of indicated we've got $0.05 related to the restructuring initiatives. And I can tell you in Q1 we wouldn’t repeat kind of the performance we had last year in Q1. So that's anticipated that it was fixed and we will be back at what we would consider normal operating. I don't recall the number right off of my head what that is. SteriPack is about $0.01 and from an integration perspective we continue to integrate. We will see some synergies coming in the later part of the year as we qualify the film that was being purchased from outside of Bemis is now being qualified to run inside of Bemis.

EW
Erin WintersDirector of Investor Relations

On organic growth. You could expect an organic growth Mark that the EPS impacted that if you sum up the US and global going to be high single-digits EPS type range. Did we cover all of the items?

MW
Mark WildeAnalyst - BMO Capital Markets

Yes. I think that's most of them.

EW
Erin WintersDirector of Investor Relations

Okay.

MW
Mark WildeAnalyst - BMO Capital Markets

I just wondered as a follow-on, can you guys just talk about whether you have seen any acceleration or deceleration in business over the last say three months?

EW
Erin WintersDirector of Investor Relations

Mark, I'll take that. I wouldn’t say there's an acceleration or deceleration. I will talk about Q4 and US Packaging for a moment, we were up about 1% and that's on top of up 2% in Q4 of 2015 and that's from a volume perspective. We felt good about that. We commercialized the new products we wanted, we needed to commercialize. There was some weakness in end markets, and let's call it health, hygiene, towel, tissue, overwrap that piece of the market, but I think that's just normal. Q4 customers managing their inventories and their promotions that they have in retail. But I would say from my perspective as we exit 2016 and move into '17 that we're building a little bit of momentum within the business in US.

AP
Anthony PettinariAnalyst - Citi

Hi. Good afternoon. Going back to the Analyst Day, I think there was a view that price or pricing analytics could contribute maybe around 20% of the margin expansion that you're ultimately targeting. It sounds like early findings from pricing analytics are maybe contributing to more flattish margins as you protect some business. Does this kind of recalibrate how you think about the potential benefits of pricing analytics maybe in 2018 or 2019, or how do you think about the value of the program going forward given the results might have been a little surprising at the end of the year in 2016?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Anthony, you raised a good point. Okay? The way our initial sense with pricing analytics was we would be able to strategically use it and you always look at upside, right, you're always looking for the upside. So we would strategically use it to raise prices that were low, okay. And if you look as we've looked at it and gotten into the details of the analytics, we can look across market segments, product segments, SKUs to determine how our overall portfolio is put together, in any specific segment or at any specific account. Now to use that that way, it gives you a much more strategic focus and not just a tactical focus of the analytics. And that's what our teams have done throughout 2016. They used it very strategically to say, okay, how are we positioned across an entire segment, and where do we need to adjust, so that we can protect, lock up, change terms, different materials, whatever happens to be. But it's much more strategic now than we ever thought it was going to be, or that we had imagined it could be versus the tactical piece of the tool and used it to raise the low prices. So, yes, to your point it's become more strategic than it is tactical.

AP
Anthony PettinariAnalyst - Citi

Okay. That's helpful. And then just following up on the 2017 guidance, I think in the US you guided to 1% to 2% organic growth, and I guess it’s a little bit lower than the 2% growth at the Analyst Day if I'm comparing the right things. Is there any reason you're kind of maybe at the lower end or below that long-term target? Is that just kind of continued conservatism in a tough process foods market or is there specific categories where you're seeing weakness or any kind of color there would be helpful.

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, Anthony, what we had projected at Analyst Day was we would be 2% ahead of food, okay. So, if we look – just take a look at '16 for instance, we finished the year about 1% up. You can look at different data, you can talk to different customers, you can track process food volumes. That would – and most of them were negative, more than 1% or 2%. We see that our customers, the data we look at for '17 says possibly plus 1%. Personally, from my perspective, I don't think it’s going to be that robust. I think maybe it's going to be flat. We don't necessarily need all those end markets to grow at big rates to get the 1% to 2% growth that we are projecting for 2017 in US packaging. We have the business in hand. We have the accounts won. We use pricing analytics to lock up some of those accounts for the long-term we don't have to worry about that piece of the business. Commercialization issues are behind us. We've moved on from that. Now it's time for us to execute and make 2017 happen the way the business teams are planning it.

BM
Brian MaguireAnalyst - Goldman Sachs

Hi, good morning. I just had a question following up on the outlook for US packaging in 2017. It sounds like with the EBITDA margin – EBIT margin being flat, you're guiding for generally flat EBIT growth, and it sounds like that pricing was going to be a negative component in there, based on the analytics you did. Just wondering if it's a case where you think that you maybe raised price too aggressively in some markets the last couple of years and you're retrenching a bit now, or does it seem like it was more of a case where the end markets got a little bit softer and there's been a little bit more competition and pricing erosion in those markets?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

What we looked at there, and as I said in my script, this is primarily in the process protein segment. We've had business in this area for many, many years and have had exceptional kinds of prices in there. We wanted to make sure that we maintained it and locked it up for the future, that's what we did. So we negotiated not just price, there's other things that go into this right? Terms, material substitutions, re-qualification of a different product, so the net-net is that our margins are going to be flat in 2017 in US packaging.

BM
Brian MaguireAnalyst - Goldman Sachs

Okay. Great. I appreciate that. And then just a follow-up on the volume outlook, I know it's a bit of an acceleration from the trends recently. Is some of that renegotiation work contributing to that? And do you expect some of the commercialization improvement activities that lead to a little bit of a bounce back as some of that business comes through?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yes.

GP
Ghansham PanjabiAnalyst - Baird

Hey, guys, good morning. It's Ghansham.

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Ghansham.

MC
Michael ClauerVice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hi, Ghansham.

GP
Ghansham PanjabiAnalyst - Baird

So, Bill, just to help us reset expectations or calibrate your performance I guess in the context of your own volume profile in 2016 the way you've defined it, what do you think your relative markets grew in '16 in the US, Latin America, and Europe?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Ghansham, great question. I don't think our markets grew in the US. I don't think the markets grew in LatAm. Europe was probably flat, Asia-Pacific we had strong single-digit growth rates in Asia-Pacific. I think the markets that we are growing in Asia-Pacific are really because we're transferring technology from the US to Europe and we are creating new packaging styles for the Asian market which are new there. So it's hard to say what the markets grew in Asia-Pacific. But we feel pretty good about what we've done in Asia-Pacific, strong fourth quarter in Asia-Pacific, mid-single to upper digit - upper single-digit growth rates in healthcare. We're probably growing a little bit better than the healthcare market might be for our type of packaging only because we were working through backlog, right? So from the Oshkosh issue that we had and just to point out on Oshkosh, I'll say this now since I'm on it. The metrics that we track to see how our performances there throughput waste, scrap, on-time deliveries are all on track as per what we said at the end of the third quarter. So we feel good about the execution that's taken place in our Oshkosh healthcare facility.

GP
Ghansham PanjabiAnalyst - Baird

Okay. And just as my second question, I guess since your last conference call there's been a broad increase in raw material prices across almost every single substrate. I guess, first-off, what are you modeling for inflation not just raw materials but just general inflation wages, etc. And then as we think about your specific margin targets for 2018 that you sort of outlined for US packaging, being up how does that factor into your thinking for the margin threshold for that year?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. From an inflation perspective we modeled in 3%. Raw materials we pass-through, so we don't spend much time with that; we pass it through quickly. And last point you had their George…

EW
Erin WintersDirector of Investor Relations

Ghansham.

MC
Michael ClauerVice President and Chief Financial Officer

I had a couple more Ghansham just back in the US we use 4% inflation on utilities, 2.5% freight, we assumed our benefit plans will cost us about 5% increase. And then in the global markets we like in – I think Brazil we use inflation of – I've got the numbers here. We used economic data provided by the economist in country. But back in Brazil, 6.5% inflation, Argentina 20%, Mexico 2%, China we’ve assumed 4% inflation. So we really try to tie ourselves to the local markets. We use the GDP outlooks. And then in the case of Brazil I think they are looking at plus 1, we were assuming down one just because we were not quite comfortable yet that this is improving. Is that going to help your question?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Ghansham.

EW
Erin WintersDirector of Investor Relations

Next question, operator.

JF
Jason FreuchtelAnalyst - SunTrust

Hi. Good morning.

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Jason.

MC
Michael ClauerVice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hi, Jason.

JF
Jason FreuchtelAnalyst - SunTrust

I think you referenced there are some volatility in your order patterns in the US business, maybe in the health hygiene over wrap business. Does that imply that that volume is pushed out into 1Q '17 and could that provide a little bit of upside to your estimates objections?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

We would know. All we’re saying is - Q4 is always kind of challenging because you kind of get orders and commitments in the quarter for the quarter and then if they change their production schedules or when they're going to close their plants down and cancel or delay orders. So I wouldn’t think about – I don't think of it as just shifts, there's too many other variables.

JF
Jason FreuchtelAnalyst - SunTrust

Okay. And I guess secondarily, you've managed your general corporate expenses lower over the course of '16. Should we expect those costs will increase with your inflation expectations you just laid out, or are there any other opportunities to potentially manage those costs down over the course of the year?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

First of all I said in the comments, I think what you should do is model as percentage of sales consistent year-to-year. And we do use an overall assumption of about 3% and then we target our SG&A organizations to look for areas and opportunities to try to hold those costs constant. I think one of the drivers year-over-year is going to be as we mentioned our pay-per-performance. If we don't perform as we didn't in 2016 our short-term incentive plans globally take a hit. And then when we come to a new year, we start with the assumption that we are going to achieve our targets for 2017.

AV
Arun ViswanathanAnalyst - RBC Capital Markets

Thanks. I just wanted to go back to a couple things you mentioned earlier on the call, you said that the $2.85 to $3 range will depend on FX, new products, business on-boarding and end markets. I wanted to kind of dive into the end markets discussion. Maybe you can just help us understand what you're assuming your own growth would be in some of your areas such as the big middle or medical and so on?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. We don't necessarily model out growth in any one area segment like the big middle. What we do is we looked at U.S. packaging and as we said in Mike's comments, 1% to 2% there. On the global side of the business, we looked at – if you boil it down LatAm flat, low single digits in Europe and mid single digits in Asia in healthcare. That’s the – those are the metrics we've used in the plan to model out.

AV
Arun ViswanathanAnalyst - RBC Capital Markets

Yeah. Thanks.

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

And if you look at – and just following on to that, end markets in US, we've looked at data, we’ve talked to customers. There’s a lot of talk that US end markets would be plus one. I'm not necessarily that robust and think that it will be zero to one, but I don't think one is a given.

KW
Kyle WhiteAnalyst - Deutsche Bank

Hi, good morning. It’s Kyle White filling in for Debbie. I wanted to focus on inorganic growth. You laid out the 3% CAGR target at the Analyst Day a while back. Just kind of get your thoughts on if you think that's still a viable target given sort of transaction multiple expansion that we've seen and in order to get that target are you expecting more sort of smaller deals to get to it or a transformational deal?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Well, this is – I'll answer that. It's still a realistic goal. It still is our objective to do some acquisitions. We're going to continue kind of - how we've approached it thus far is that we've, kind of, identified the type of companies we want to add to the portfolio. They typically – that tend to be family-type businesses, and then we start working on creating the relationship and helping understand their succession plans. In the case of both Emplal and SteriPack, those are prime examples of where we got things taken care of and they really were in the process. I don't want to say we don't look at things in the process as most of you are aware. Second half of 2016 was a pretty robust period of time with assets coming up for sale. We took a look at a lot of them, none of them kind of fit. But we're going to continue focusing on bolt-ons. At this point in time honestly we're not really thinking transformational, but if something of interest came along we would not lock at it.

KW
Kyle WhiteAnalyst - Deutsche Bank

Thanks. That's helpful. Second question is just more on clarity, Mike I think you said $0.05 benefit from LatAm I believe that's just the lapping of the headwind that you had in 2016 and not necessarily inclusive of benefits from the restructuring.

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

The $0.05 is only the synergies associated with the restructuring. We would expect that the problems we had in Q1 that we corrected in Q2 would not repeat kind of the performance we had last year in Q1. So that's anticipated that it was fixed and we will be back at what we would consider normal operating. The other parts would have a positive impact on that.

EW
Erin WintersDirector of Investor Relations

Thank you for the question. Just a question on Latin America with the restructuring. We're at the bottom of the worst recession Brazil pretty much ever seen, most severe. What gives you confidence that we won't see a big pickup in 2018 or even in the back half of 2017 and you'll have to add capacity in the medium-term or more quickly than you thought? And with the plant closings, what's the capacity utilization you're running at now and how much room do you scope, do you have for growth, if things indeed rebound?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Right. The restructuring didn't remove capacity from the rigid side of the equation. We put our volume into facilities that had open capacity and much more efficient and effective capacity than we had within one of our old legacy plants. So you've really given us the ability to drive productivity in the short-term and also pick up the business, pick up the volume as consumption begins to accelerate. So we are trying to manage it in the short-term, but we really looked at it over the long-term to say okay, how can we continue to drive the business forward with this new.

FS
Frederick SearbyAnalyst - Dunbar

Okay. Thank you.

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

You're welcome.

JF
Jason FreuchtelAnalyst - SunTrust

Hey thanks. Just a couple follow-ups. How dramatic could your end market exposure change as you find new opportunities through your pricing analytics strategy and would you anticipate it to change over the next couple of years?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

Jason, I'm not sure I quite understand the question, but how could our exposure to end markets change? We are trying to change the exposure now and as I said earlier, we've always been a big player in the food space and we are trying to take our technologies and our capacities into the nonfood areas proactively, so that we change that dynamic ourselves and don't wait for the market to change it on us.

JF
Jason FreuchtelAnalyst - SunTrust

Right. That's exactly what I was asking. And could you see a large shift in that business in one year or would it take multiple years to see a material change in your end market exposure?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

That won't happen overnight, Jason. It's a thoughtful planned out way to get there. And it isn't going to be a step change. It will be a ramp.

CM
Chris ManuelAnalyst - Wells Fargo

Hi guys. Just one quick one here because I know we're late in the call. When you guys had laid out objectives through '19, one of the key pieces of that was targeting $750 million or so of revenue in acquisitions. As we sit today, we’re about halfway through the process, and if you guys have in round numbers $100 million, $150 million or so kind of a targeted revenue that you’ve done. Where are you at in the process, I guess, is really what I'm trying to understand, and in particular I think early you mentioned near-term input from related acquisition costs or something like that and a discussion of why SG&A was up. Kind of where are you at in the process of finding things, how does the market look to you, and what did you mean by that question earlier I think in regards to SG&A?

WA
William AustenPresident and Chief Executive Officer

First, I’ll answer the last question. I didn't make any reference to acquisitions in SG&A. So, I don't know what that might have been. As far as M&A, I mean, we still think it's a healthy environment and as we commented at the end of Q3, we did add Jim Ward our new Vice President of Business Development to our team, and what Jim really brings, he came from a consumer packaging company, excuse me, consumer products company and prior to that a nice career in investment banking. Jim's really brought an incredible -has been an incredible addition to our team, and I think it's going to be a step change in us looking at more acquisitions. And we clearly fully intend to deliver the 3% in organic objective that we laid out back in '15.

CM
Chris ManuelAnalyst - Wells Fargo

Thank you.

EW
Erin WintersDirector of Investor Relations

Thank you everyone for joining us today. This concludes our conference call.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude the teleconference for today. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

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