Broadcom Inc (AVGO) — Q3 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on today’s call are Hock Tan, President and CEO; and Tom Krause, Chief Financial Officer of Broadcom. After the market closed, Broadcom distributed a press release and financial tables describing our financial performance for the third quarter of fiscal year 2020. If you did not receive a copy, you may obtain the information from the Investors section of Broadcom’s website at broadcom.com. This conference call is being webcast live and a recording will be available via telephone playback for one week. It will also be archived in the Investors section of our website at broadcom.com. During the prepared comments, Hock and Tom will be providing details of our third quarter fiscal year 2020 results, guidance for our fourth quarter, as well as commentary regarding the business environment. We’ll take questions after the end of our prepared comments. Please refer to our press release today and our recent filings with the SEC for information on the specific risk factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made on this call. In addition to U.S. GAAP reporting, Broadcom reports certain financial measures on a non-GAAP basis. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures is included in the tables attached to today’s press release. Comments made during today’s call will primarily refer to our non-GAAP financial results. So with that, I’ll now turn the call over to Hock.

Thank you, Bea, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. I have to say that the strength of our broad and diversified portfolio of leadership technology franchises led to record third quarter revenue for Broadcom. Despite these uncertain times, we continue to operate in. We remain well-positioned to address the work-from-home environment, especially with many of our networking and broadband products in the cloud and telcos. In addition, we expect to soon start benefitting from the transition to 5G and new product ramps later this year. While there continues to be ebb and flow in part of our business linked to enterprise, this is somewhat offset by the highly recurring revenue of our infrastructure software divisions. As a result, we remain confident in the strategy we have laid out over the past several years, delivering sustainable revenue and significant cash flow margins while remaining focused on total shareholder return. Let me now provide further detail on our third quarter results. We delivered net revenue of $5.8 billion, above the midpoint of our guidance and up 1% sequentially, and up 6% year-on-year. Semiconductor solutions revenue was $4.2 billion, declining 4% year-on-year. Infrastructure software revenue was $1.6 billion, up 41% year-on-year, which of course includes the contribution from Symantec in 2020. Starting with semiconductors, our semiconductor solutions segment was up 5% sequentially, driven by continued strength in networking and broadband. Networking was up 9% sequentially due to continued healthy demand from our cloud customers as we began to ramp for next generation Tomahawk 3 and Trident 3 switch products. Routing demand also remained strong as telcos launch our Jericho 2 in the edge and core networks. We expect the strength in networking that we have experienced since the beginning of this fiscal year to sustain in Q4 with continued demand from cloud and telcos driving solid sequential growth. Turning to broadband, which was up 7% sequentially in Q3. We continue to see strong demand for the next generation cable modems, cable DOCSIS 3.1, which was partially offset by a decline in satellite set-top boxes. We also continued to see strong adoption of Wi-Fi 6 in next generation access gateways in telcos and consumers, and even in large enterprises. Telecom and consumer have been particularly strong, driven by the work-from-home environment. However, after a strong Q3, we expect the strength in broadband revenue to take a pause and come down on a sequential basis by approximately 10% in Q4. Keep in mind, however, this will still be up 20% on a year-on-year basis. Moving on, wireless was down 4% sequentially in Q3 due to the expected typical ramp being pushed out this year. This is expected to result in a significant uplift, however, in wireless revenue of approximately 50% sequentially in Q4. Despite this significant sequential ramp and a significant increase in our RF content, we expect revenue to be roughly flat year-on-year in Q4. This is due to fewer units of our parts for the next generation phone being shipped in the fourth quarter this year, relative to last year, due to this product delay. That being said, we currently expect Q1 revenue in wireless to be up sequentially from Q4 with an increase in expected unit shipments of our parts for the next generation phone compared to Q1 last year. In other words, the launch ramp this year is expected to complete only in Q1 whereas it has normally been completed in Q4 of previous years. In server storage connectivity, where the majority of the revenue is tied to enterprise, Q3 was up 10% sequentially. However, expected softness in enterprise demand will likely result in server storage revenue declining in high single digits quarter-over-quarter in Q4. Lastly, industrial revenue was down 3% sequentially in Q3. In Q4, we expect industrial revenue to continue to hold on; however, we are taking the opportunity to further reduce our channel inventory significantly. As a result, we expect industrial revenue to be down double-digit quarter-over-quarter in Q4. In summary, our semiconductor solutions segment was up 5% sequentially in Q3. Given the continuing surge of demand in networking and expected 5G phone ramp in wireless, we expect a mid-teens percentage sequential increase in our fourth fiscal quarter. On a year-on-year basis, Q4 will mark a return to growth for the semiconductor segment overall, which we think is a key inflection point for Broadcom and which we expect to sustain into Q1. Now, turning to software. CA was up 6% year-on-year, flat sequentially. Bookings at our core accounts continued to grow double-digit year-on-year and have offset the expected reduction in the services business. Symantec was flat sequentially and contributed over $400 million in the quarter. Similar to CA, bookings in our Symantec core accounts are growing, offsetting the transition out of the smaller commercial accounts as we continue to rationalize the business. Brocade was up 3% year-on-year and as expected, was down significantly, sequentially. Looking ahead to next quarter on a sequential basis, we expect revenues from CA to sustain and expect Symantec revenue to be up 4%. We anticipate Brocade revenue to be relatively flat on a sequential basis. As a result, revenue from the software segment is expected to be up by a low-single-digit percentage sequentially in the fourth quarter. In summary, we expect our fourth quarter net revenue to be $6.4 billion, up 10% sequentially from Q3. This reflects an approximate mid-teens percentage sequential projected revenue increase in the semiconductor solutions side and a low-single-digit percentage sequential revenue increase in infrastructure software.

Thank you, Hock. Let me provide some additional detail on our financial performance. First, on the P&L, gross margins were a record 74% of revenue in the quarter, up approximately 110 basis points from Q2 and up approximately 220 basis points year-on-year. The year-on-year increase in software as a percentage of our overall revenues was the large part of the increase. Operating income from continuing operations was $3.2 billion and represented 55% of net revenue. Operating margins were up approximately 180 basis points quarter-over-quarter and year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in operating expenses and better gross margin due to mix. Operating expenses were $1.1 billion, which was down $25 million compared to Q2. Adjusted EBITDA was $3.3 billion and represented 57% of net revenue, excluding $138 million of depreciation. Looking at cash flow, we had record quarterly free cash flow of $3.1 billion, representing 53% of revenue. This is up a little more than 33% year-on-year. Turning to capital allocation, in the quarter, we paid our common stockholders $1.3 billion in cash dividends. We also paid $192 million in withholding taxes due on vesting employee equity, resulting in the elimination of approximately 700,000 AVGO shares. We ended the quarter with 404 million outstanding common shares and 451 million fully diluted shares. Note that we expect the fully diluted share count to stay at 451 million in Q4. On the financing and balance sheet front, we reduced total debt by $1.9 billion in the quarter. As we discussed on our last earnings call, we executed an $8 billion bond refinancing and $3.9 billion exchange offering. Through the refinancing and liability management activities we’ve undertaken this year, we’ve been able to push out our weighted average debt maturity to approximately six years and reduce our weighted average interest rate to approximately 3%. All told, we ended the quarter with $8.9 billion in cash and currently have $13.9 billion of liquidity, including our $5 billion revolver. We ended the quarter with $44 billion in total debt, of which approximately $800 million is short-term. Finally, given our strong free cash flow generation and as we look to further deleverage the balance sheet, we plan to pay down an additional $3 billion of debt in our fiscal fourth quarter.

Thanks very much. Actually, just a quick clarification and a question. Clarification, I just wanted to make sure your outlook kind of excludes or reflects if there are any restrictions on shipment to any Chinese customers. And then, Hock, my real question is on 5G. You give us very good color on the near-term trends. What we have seen in the first market for 5G, which is China, is the transition happened very quickly? The majority of phones there are now 5G. Do you see that to be the case for your exposure also, and that a bigger percentage of the phones you’re shipping into can be 5G, so you see the content benefits faster than you might have talked before? Thank you.

By the way, to answer the first question, our current outlook covers all aspects, including what you indicated regarding export restrictions and everything else. All those are comprehended. As for 5G, to be honest, we don’t know. Now, if we’re talking about devices, phones, that’s an interesting question. It’s very consumer-driven. At this point, we don’t know how fast the ramp on 5G will occur. Understanding what you said about China and how operators might push to make that happen through incentives, where we stand now is seeing demand mostly coming from our OEM – key strategic OEM customers. What we reflect is the demand that has been shared with us from our OEM customers.

Hi, guys. Thanks for all the detail on the end markets on the semiconductor side. Hock, I wanted to dive a little bit into the networking portion where you said the cloud side and the telecom side is strong. There has been some fear in the end market as a whole that we’re potentially entering a digestion phase from the cloud side of that equation. Very recently, one of your pseudo-competitors talked about some service provider lull in demand there as well. It doesn’t seem like you’re seeing that. Is the end market different in your view? Is it weakening or not, or are you just overcoming that with company-specific new product launches and ramps?

We are clearly benefiting from the launch of several new programs and next-generation products, which are our leadership offerings. This puts us in a unique position to capture significant market share in that area. Based on our observations, we are not seeing any weakness in the cloud or telecommunications markets. In fact, we are witnessing strong and sustained demand for our networking products within this sector.

Yes. Good afternoon, Hock. Thanks for letting me ask the question. Hock, for obvious reasons, investors focus a lot of attention on the wireless handset cycle and your content growth there. I’m wondering if you could spend just a few minutes talking about the Wi-Fi 6 uptake. You clearly, in your prepared comments, said that’s a strong tailwind right now. Help us understand what inning of that upgrade cycle you think we’re in? How does your content look as we go to Wi-Fi 6? And do you think that this work-from-home phenomenon has put enough attention on the consumer for a big installed base upgrade cycle coming or not? How would you help us characterize that?

That’s a very interesting question on Wi-Fi 6, because Wi-Fi is a key franchise we invest a lot of resources into. We have invested considerable R&D dollars in this phase, as we’re doing it on two fronts. We supply Wi-Fi, the latest leadership products in flagship phones, particularly in our strategic North American OEMs. We provide all those Wi-Fi, Bluetooth combo chips, which offer the latest features in those. That’s one area where we have a strong leadership position. We also have a very strong leadership position in Wi-Fi 6 and the current 802.11ax generation in access gateways. Basically, it’s almost home infrastructure, connectivity in homes and offices, and connectivity provided by service providers and telcos bringing signals, including video signals, into homes. In this work-from-home environment, we are seeing strong demand from telcos and service providers as they expand Wi-Fi services as part of broadband to the homes. Many consumers are upgrading their home connectivity by purchasing retail routers, particularly the latest generation of Wi-Fi retail routers, in which we are well featured. This has generated significant demand for what I call broadband and comprises a lot of Wi-Fi 6.

Hock, I wanted to ask about the ASIC business and the building blocks you have there. I know you’ve seen strong growth in compute offload. There was a story out last week that you might be working with Tesla on ASIC design. Can you just talk about the competitive landscape you have for this technology, and importantly, how you allocate resources because I’m sure there might be more opportunities in terms of how you allocate what you commit to?

The ASIC business is something we’ve been doing for many, many years. It has gone through various evolutions. Yet, in many ways, we have gone from strength to strength, simply because of the breadth of our portfolio of IP cores in silicon. Obviously, ASIC is tied to silicon. We have a lot of it. We have many intellectual property capabilities, and we’ve been doing it for a long time. I’ll be honest, you make a lot more money; it’s a much more sustainable model running merchant silicon than in ASIC. It’s a broader market. You create products that can be more innovative in many ways because we include software with many of the merchant silicons, whether it’s our switches or our broadband chips or Wi-Fi chips, we provide SDKs, we provide interfaces; the software-driven nature makes it programmable. All that provides flexibility. ASIC is still a very core part of our business, and we do very well with it. That said, it’s a business we see as having certain limitations.

I wanted to ask about lead times. I know you’ve talked a lot about supply constraints last quarter and constraints potentially extending into the second half. Can you give us some indication of where your lead times were maybe entering the quarter and now where they stand exiting the quarter, have they come in, and what’s the state of those supply constraints we’ve talked about previously?

Good question, especially following up from our last earnings call three months ago, in the midst of the COVID-19 situation at that time, as we still are. As you know, pre-COVID-19, the semiconductor industry started to improve, we indicated there were certain constraints, supply chain constraints, particularly regarding wafers, but especially leading edge wafers and even then substrates, particular substrates needed to package semiconductors. When COVID-19 appeared, it created a layer of complexity in the supply chain. The reasons were, depending on where your outsource factories are, especially in part of Asia, the lockdowns and operating under capacity created challenges that we faced for several months. This has normalized somewhat in terms of the back end, where we had assembly factories that were locked down or running below capacity, most of that has been resolved. However, the constraint on supply chain on wafers and substrates continues, and that’s what we still face today. Our lead times remain very extended based on the technology nodes and the specific products we produce and sell. Given the kind of products we do, we see some of the constraints, and I’ll be direct, we could have shipped more in Q3 if such constraints were not as tight.

Good afternoon. Congratulations on solid execution and strong free cash flow. If I look at the free cash flow for the first nine months of the fiscal year and your EBITDA guidance for Q4, doing a rough calculation, I’m estimating free cash flow growth year-over-year to around $11.5 billion for the fiscal year, which would imply that the team should be in a position to raise the dividend to at least $14 or probably more from December of this year. Number one is, am I in the ballpark? And Tom, is there anything that we should be aware of in terms of working capital or collections that could impact the normalized free cash flow this fiscal quarter?

No. Harlan, I think your math is fairly spot on. Clearly, we will assess the dividend at the end of the year. But keep in mind, we are in a recession; we’re still dealing with COVID; we’ve got an election coming. I think we want to wait. Until we get to the end of the year, we will talk to the Board, evaluate the outlook for ‘21 before jumping to any conclusions. You’re right. Our capital allocation policy is to allocate approximately half of our free cash flow back to shareholders in the form of a dividend. We’ve had that in place for several years, and we believe that’s the right approach. We will continue to take the other 50% to manage the balance sheet as we are this year. We have paid down a considerable amount of debt by the end of this year, which we are pleased with. Our balance sheet is in a very good place as we exit fiscal ‘20. We will return to normal behavior in terms of working to drive full shareholder return above and beyond the dividend, allocating capital through M&A and/or buybacks. We will address the dividend question at the end of the fiscal year, but we look forward to executing this quarter and posting results ahead of that discussion.

Hi, guys. Thanks so much for taking the question. I wanted to ask about margins long term, your aspirations specifically. You’re clearly executing really well in the near-term, both at the gross margin level and the operating margin level. Tom, I guess, historically, you’ve talked about product and business mix being the key driver for gross margins. Is that still the case, or are there specific levers that you can pull to potentially improve gross margins further? More importantly, how should we think about going forward OpEx leverage, given the current mix between semiconductors and software?

Let me take the first part. Tom can provide the second part as we position software accordingly. Regarding semiconductors, this is not merely a philosophy or model we’re just presenting. It has always been there. It’s the nature of technology and the semiconductor technology market. We have a broad portfolio of franchise leadership products. We come up with next-generation products in a very steady cadence of product lifecycle. For instance, in wireless, our products come out every 12 to 18 months; networking every two to three years; storage four to five years; industrial, anywhere from four to eight years. This is why we invest R&D to ensure our products create value for customers with each new generation adding more value. With every new generation, we have the opportunity to extract and ratchet up financial value for delivering on much better, higher performance products. It creates a natural cycle. We have a range of about 16, 17 commodities in various end markets with different product cycles. Our empirical observations over the last 10 years show that the gross margin of this mix of products grows naturally, expanding by 50 to 100 basis points each year.

When you look at our semiconductor business turning the corner and returning to growth, which I think is important, you layer in increasing diversification from software and the scale that it affords us, combined with the margins it brings, especially with the synergies on the go-to-market that we’re driving. That gives us a clear path, frankly going to 60% EBITDA margins. I think that’s our next stop. Hock is right. We have consistently, over many years, driven more content increases through R&D investments, been able to push margins incrementally, and that will contribute to the overall success of margin increases that we see coming.

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to ask on the networking segment and thanks for all the detail on the segment. If you put all that in there, it looks like networking growth would actually accelerate double-digits. I’m curious about the three segments: service provider, data center, and enterprise. I know your product cycles are driving a lot of the growth, but just curious about your thoughts on the market embedded in that guidance.

Blayne, I think I talked about it, but it’s clear that cloud continues to grow for us. We have a very strong product cycle in telcos, especially in the routing side, which gets underappreciated. We have many different angles into enterprise, obviously, with the software portfolio with Brocade on the fiber channel side and things we do within the server market. It’s clear that growth is slowing there. We saw that at the end of the third quarter and are continuing to see that as we approach the end of the year. Given the lead times we have, there’s indication that it’s stabilizing at these lower levels. At this point, it’s obvious that cloud and telcos are driving that growth.

Yes. Hey, guys. First of all, congratulations on strong execution. Hock, I wanted to ask about your software businesses. Sometimes I see bookings in double digits, but the revenue growth is much lower than that. I wanted to understand the mechanics of why revenues lag your order growth rate? Additionally, are you done with the accretion of customers in Symantec, or what is the expected timeframe for that?

The first part of the question is indeed interesting. Yes, you can view it simply that we sign software contracts, whether subscription or even on license and maintenance for three-year terms. At any one point in time in any one year, roughly one-third of our outstanding contract backlog is coming up for renewal. For those contracts recognized, we’re seeing a double-digit booking growth as we renew contracts. We recognize revenue ratably over three years. Thus, when you dilute that with the rest of the backlog, which remains flat, you’ll effectively see mid-single-digit growth rate in revenue. That’s how the math works, and we’ve done this successfully in our core accounts.

Wireless business is booming, obviously on the 5G release from your largest customer, but let’s talk longer term. No secret that your largest initiative is to develop your own baseband modem, which is a significant endeavor. The interface and the RF front end usually need to be designed by someone other than the baseband. Given your strategic position as the partner for this endeavor, will you be closely involved, and does this change the nature of your relationship in terms of revenue growth or margins? This is a major event for your largest customer, should they succeed. How will this affect margin profile and revenue growth in wireless over the next two to three years?

Ed, I appreciate your knowledge of the business. Unfortunately, I can’t comment on that.

Yes. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I guess, just to follow-up, you talked about extended lead times, wireless growing into fiscal Q1, and you also highlighted the semiconductor solutions sustaining into Q1. So, as we put all that together, is it fair to say that semiconductor should grow again into January?

Yes, C.J. What we wanted to highlight was given the shift in the product launch for the big phone customer. We wanted to provide some color on how that translates into Q1, since that’s not a typical occurrence. Additionally, due to the lead times we have, we generate visibility, especially in growth areas like networking. We feel comfortable that this quarter marks the first in a while where semiconductor growth will be up year-over-year. For Q1, we believe we can sustain that.

Thank you, operator. In closing, we did want to note that Hock will be presenting virtually at the Deutsche Bank Technology Conference on Tuesday, September 15th. That will conclude our earnings call today, and we thank you all for joining. Operator, you may end the call.