CF Industries Holdings Inc
Exchange: NYSESector: Basic MaterialsIndustry: Agricultural Inputs
At CF Industries, our mission is to provide clean energy to feed and fuel the world sustainably. With our employees focused on safe and reliable operations, environmental stewardship, and disciplined capital and corporate management, we are on a path to decarbonize our ammonia production network – the world’s largest – to enable low-carbon hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement and other industrial activities. Our manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, an unparalleled storage, transportation and distribution network in North America, and logistics capabilities enabling a global reach underpin our strategy to leverage our unique capabilities to accelerate the world’s transition to clean energy.
Did you know?
Trading 128% below its estimated fair value of $296.11.
Current Price
$129.97
+1.55%GoodMoat Value
$296.11
127.8% undervaluedProfile
Valuation (TTM)
Market Cap$20.27B
P/E13.93
EV$20.40B
P/B4.19
Shares Out155.97M
P/Sales2.86
Revenue$7.08B
EV/EBITDA7.44
CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) Stock Analysis
GoodMoat Analysis
CF Industries is a leading nitrogen fertilizer producer with a strong competitive position built on low-cost production and scale. Its current valuation appears deeply undervervalued based on the provided GoodMoat target, offering a significant margin of safety. The combination of a durable moat and attractive price makes it a compelling candidate for further value analysis.
Read full analysis
CF Industries Holdings Inc is a major player in the agricultural inputs sector, primarily producing and selling nitrogen fertilizers like ammonia, urea, and UAN. For a value investor, the analysis begins with its moat. Applying the GoodMoat framework, CF likely scores well on criteria like Scale Privilege (owning large-scale, low-cost production facilities) and Supply Chain Advantage (access to low-cost natural gas, a key input). Its position as a low-cost producer in a cyclical industry creates a durable competitive advantage, though it may score lower on criteria like switching costs or brand. The business demonstrates high quality through its robust financials: an ROE of 30.1% far exceeds the 15-20% high-quality threshold, it has a strong operating margin of 32.3%, and a healthy FCF yield of 9.1%. The debt level, with a Debt/Equity of 0.75, is manageable. According to the Decision Framework, a company with a strong moat and high-quality indicators passes the initial gate for valuation analysis. The critical finding is on price: the current price of $128.11 is significantly below the GoodMoat target of $296.11, implying a margin of safety well over 40%, which the framework classifies as 'Deeply Undervalued.' This creates a favourable setup where a high-quality business with a durable moat is priced at a steep discount to its estimated intrinsic value, warranting deeper investigation into the sustainability of its earnings power and the cyclical drivers of its industry. Analysis based on data as of 2024-05-15.
Market Cap$20.27B
Current Price$129.97
P/E Ratio13.93
Forward P/E—
PEG Ratio0.37
EPS$8.97
Book Value$31.02
P/B Ratio4.19
CF Financial Charts
FCF vs CAPEX
FCFCAPEX
Forward estimates use 7.5% FCF growth (CAGR)
Cash vs Debt
Net Debt: 1.7B
Revenue
4.6B
FY19
4.1B
FY20
6.5B
FY21
11.2B
FY22
6.6B
FY23
5.9B
FY24
7.1B
FY25
Net Income
493M
FY19
317M
FY20
917M
FY21
3.3B
FY22
1.5B
FY23
1.2B
FY24
1.5B
FY25
CF 52-Week Range
$66.93
$137.60
50-Day MA: $107.75200-Day MA: $90.76
Did you know?
Earnings per share grew at a 7.5% CAGR.
CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) Financial Summary
CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) is a Basic Materials company in the Agricultural Inputs industry, listed on NYSE. The stock currently trades at $129.97 with a market capitalization of $20.27B.
Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 13.93, price-to-book ratio of 4.19, and EPS of $8.97. The company reports a profit margin of 20.5% and return on equity of 30.1%.
CF Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $20.27B |
| P/E Ratio | 13.93 |
| EPS | $8.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.44 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.61% |
| Profit Margin | 20.5% |
| Return on Equity | 30.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.75 |
CF Revenue & Earnings History
| Year | Revenue | Net Income |
|---|---|---|
| FY19 | $4.59B | $493.00M |
| FY20 | $4.12B | $317.00M |
| FY21 | $6.54B | $917.00M |
| FY22 | $11.19B | $3.35B |
| FY23 | $6.63B | $1.52B |
| FY24 | $5.94B | $1.22B |
| FY25 | $7.08B | $1.46B |
CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) Valuation
Based on GoodMoat's DCF model, CF Industries Holdings Inc has a fair value estimate of $296.11. At the current price of $129.97, the stock appears 56.1% undervalued relative to our intrinsic value estimate.
CF Quality Indicators
CF Industries Holdings Inc maintains a profit margin of 20.5% and an operating margin of 32.3%. Return on equity stands at 30.1%. The current ratio is 3.37. Debt-to-equity ratio is 0.75.
About CF Industries Holdings Inc
At CF Industries, our mission is to provide clean energy to feed and fuel the world sustainably. With our employees focused on safe and reliable operations, environmental stewardship, and disciplined capital and corporate management, we are on a path to decarbonize our ammonia production network – the world’s largest – to enable low-carbon hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement and other industrial activities. Our manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, an unparalleled storage, transportation and distribution network in North America, and logistics capabilities enabling a global reach underpin our strategy to leverage our unique capabilities to accelerate the world’s transition to clean energy.
CF Free Cash Flow
CF Industries Holdings Inc generated $1.81B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, representing an FCF yield of 8.94%. This strong FCF yield suggests the company generates substantial cash relative to its market value.
CF Shares Outstanding
CF Industries Holdings Inc has 0.16 billion shares outstanding at a share price of $129.97, giving it a market capitalization of $20.27B.
CF Recent Insider Trades
Recent insider transactions at CF Industries Holdings Inc include:
| Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Menzel Susan L (EVP and Chief Admin. Officer) | SELL | 18,041 | $2.45M |
| Frost Bert A (EVP, Chief Commercial Officer) | SELL | 6,250 | $854315.62 |
| Will W Anthony | SELL | 28,625 | $3.40M |