Campbell Soup Company (CPB) — Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning, and welcome to Campbell's second quarter fiscal 2022 earnings conference call. I am Rebecca Gardy, Head of Investor Relations at Campbell Soup Company. Joining me today are Mark Clouse, Campbell's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mick Beekhuizen, Campbell's Chief Financial Officer. Today's remarks have been prerecorded. Once we conclude the prepared remarks, we will transition to a live webcast Q&A session. The slide deck and today's earnings press release have been posted to the Investor Relations section on our website, campbellsoupcompany.com. Following the conclusion of the Q&A session, a replay of the webcast will be available at the same location, followed by a transcript of the call within 24 hours. On our call today, we will make forward-looking statements, which reflect our current expectations. These statements rely on assumptions and estimates which could be inaccurate and are subject to risk. Please refer to Slide 3 of our presentation or our SEC filings for a list of factors that could cause our actual results to vary materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. Because we use non-GAAP measures, we have provided a reconciliation of each of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure in the appendix of this presentation. On Slide 4, you will see today's agenda. Mark will share his overall thoughts on our second quarter performance, as well as in-market performance by division; Mick will discuss the financial results of the quarter in more detail and then review our guidance for the full year fiscal 2022. And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Mark.

Thanks, Rebecca. Good morning, and welcome to our second quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2022. Before I turn to the results of the quarter, I want to take a moment to thank all our teams, especially our frontline colleagues for navigating the impact on our operations during another difficult period of the pandemic. We are now at the two-year mark of working within this challenging COVID-19 environment, and I'm very proud of their perseverance, continued performance and dedication. I also want to take a moment to express our concern for the people of Ukraine. Our sympathies and support go out to them during this crisis. As we outlined during the Q1 earnings call and as you saw in our press release, Q2 was challenging as we expected, including industry-wide constraints on labor and materials availability made even tougher by the winter Omicron surge, as well as ongoing commodity and logistics inflation. However, more recently, labor and service levels are improving as COVID cases decline, and we see greater impact from our aggressive hiring and training. Since October, our full-time filled headcount increased by 10 points, and we now see absenteeism and vacancy rates trending back to normal levels. This is translating to more production and the beginning of a return to normal distribution and inventory levels. We do continue to expect inflation to remain persistent, especially as it relates to logistics. And although we have no direct exposure to Ukraine and Russia, we are monitoring any broader economic impact from the current crisis, especially on commodities. As we look forward and including the balance of these factors, combined with the greater impact from pricing actions, easing prior year comparisons and continued strong demand across our portfolio, we remain confident in reiterating our previously communicated full year fiscal 2022 guidance. We look forward to returning the business to growth while building momentum in the back half and exiting the year as a more capable and stronger business. Now, let's cover some specifics from Q2. Organic net sales were down 2%, primarily driven by industry-wide labor and supply challenges more than offsetting the favorable impact of net pricing in the quarter. On a two-year basis, organic net sales remained elevated, growing 3%. And market performance remained positive, up 1%. This was 3 points ahead of net sales in the quarter, reflecting a lag in inventory replenishment and lower distribution levels due to previously mentioned supply constraints. The end-market demand was balanced across both divisions. On a two-year basis, consumption grew 9%. And importantly, our brands in 12 of our 13 core categories continued to grow in market consumption. Despite this growth, as expected, we experienced short-term market pressure on certain brands. These share losses tend to line up very closely with where our distribution levels are down. Supporting supply is the key driver of this pressure. As we recover distribution and can fully support our portfolio, we expect to return to share recovery as we move through the second half of the fiscal year. Turning to profit, lower volume and accelerating inflation weighed on margins and earnings, resulting in a 17% decline in adjusted EBIT and a 16% decline in adjusted EPS in the quarter, both very much in line with our expectations. Turning to our Meals & Beverages division, I continue to be pleased by the underlying health and strength of demand for our portfolio. Consumption grew 1% over prior year and was up 11% versus two years ago despite our supply challenges. Organic net sales decreased 2% versus prior year, lapping 5% growth in the prior year. Turning to Soups on Slide 9, the next chapter of our Win in Soup strategy continues to deliver growth. End-market soup consumption continued to be ahead of the elevated levels in the prior year, increasing 3% versus prior year and 10% compared to two years ago. In the quarter, we continued to see strong share performance on key brands, but as expected, we did see pockets of share declines. In particular, on Condensed Soup, we continue to remain very confident in our overall competitive position. However, we experienced some share pressure as private label lapped an extended period of supply constraints. As you see on Slide 10, we had continued success with younger buyers. We performed very well and brought in additional millennial and Gen Z buyers to both our condensed eating and cooking varieties in the second quarter. On total U.S. Soup, household penetration in the quarter was up versus both the prior year and two years ago. And importantly, we continue to see more consumers participating in the soup category and purchasing our soup brands compared to pre-pandemic levels. While dollars spent per buyer increased due to our pricing actions, volume per buyer remained relatively stable to pre-pandemic levels, despite specific supply constraints in the quarter. For the important holiday period, our soup and broth posted its second largest holiday in the last five years, only down compared to last year as consumers returned to fewer, larger gatherings during this holiday season. In ready-to-serve, Chunky had a very strong quarter, increasing consumption 9% on top of the 13% growth in the prior year quarter leading to an astounding 25% consumption growth and over 2 points of share growth on a two-year basis. As we shared at Investor Day, lunch is a key occasion for this brand, and people are now eating even more low-prep lunches compared to the prior year. Our focus on the lunch occasion highlighted through a successful advertising campaign, 'Lunch Time Is Your Halftime' with Super Bowl winning coach from the Rams, Sean McVay, is driving a positive sales lift, including among younger households. Also, our latest innovation, Chunky Spicy, which we are expanding, is adding to the strong results of this important brand. In fact, Chunky Spicy Chicken Noodle launched earlier this year is already in the second quartile of all ready-to-serve items with strong trial and repeat. Turning to Swanson Broth and Stock. The continued supply recovery led to a fourth consecutive quarter of share growth, up 1.2 points in the quarter, a clear win during the important holiday season and a good example of where supply recovery directly translated to share recovery. On sauces, Prego continues to be the number one share leader. However, some supply challenges on our Prego Alfredo sauce put pressure on share. We expect a steady recovery of supply beginning in the fourth quarter. Pace share continues to improve, while V8 beverage experienced some share loss in the quarter due to high single-digit declines in total points of distribution, or TDPs, compared to prior year driven by material shortages, especially aluminum cans. Turning to our Snacks division on Slide 12. Organic net sales were down 3% versus prior year, but compared to two years ago, grew 3%. On snacks, we expected a significant impact from supply constraints we experienced. Despite these constraints, end market consumption grew 1% over the prior year quarter and 8% on a two-year basis, reflecting the underlying strength of our brands, especially our power brands. In fact, our Snacks power brands continue to fuel performance with end-market consumption growth of 3% versus the prior year and 9% compared to two years ago, reflecting our efforts to prioritize power brands and to remain competitive. We are encouraged to see repeat rates ahead of prior year on seven of eight power brands and ahead on a two-year basis on all power brands. Particular standouts were our Kettle brand potato chips and Cape Cod potato chips, where we have successfully added capacity. Each had a strong quarter with consumption growth of 26% and 20% compared to two years ago, and share growth of almost two share points combined. Turning to Goldfish, also an area of significant capacity expansion and supply recovery, we performed well in the quarter, holding share in a competitive marketplace and growing consumption by 9%. As we outlined at Investor Day, we recently launched our Goldfish Mega Bites, a bigger, bolder, cheesier Goldfish cracker, and our Family Size Goldfish aimed at meeting key consumer trends. Both are off to strong starts. We are executing our plan to elevate innovation based on consumer insights, resulting in bigger, more impactful ideas. Since the launch in January, Mega Bites achieved the fastest distribution growth in recent history of Goldfish innovation launches. Early consumer repeat rates are promising as consumers who purchased once are already coming back to buy again. We launched in January with a highly impactful PR and social campaign. And within its first week alone, Mega Bites achieved over 1 billion earned media impressions. The full activation will run through the summer, and I have to say it feels good to return to what we do best, building our brands. This is an important proof point as we pivot from supply recovery to now running the business in what we believe will be more predictable conditions as we come through the rest of the fiscal year and into fiscal 2023. Lastly on Goldfish, continuing our successful limited time offer strategy, we're excited about the launch of the limited edition Star Wars The Mandalorian Cheddar Crackers. We have another limited time offer Goldfish release planned for the early summer, including another surprising one-of-a-kind flavor collaboration. As we mentioned last quarter, we expected short-term share headwinds due to supply constraints on certain snack brands, specifically, in Late July snacks, Snyder's of Hanover Pretzels and Lance sandwich crackers. Similar to supply pressures on meals and beverages, share pressure aligned with lower TDPs in the quarter compared to prior year. We have taken actions to improve overall performance, including core SKU prioritization efforts to increase production while reducing complexity, as well as prioritizing plant labor recruiting, training and retention. We feel confident these share headwinds are temporary as we've already seen strong improvement in our labor and production levels. As a result, we will return to our planned levels of investment through the back half of the fiscal year and expect to be fully back on track for what our snack brands do best, growing consumption and share. To conclude, we expected Q2 to be tough as we navigated challenges and lapped strong performance from a year ago, and it was. We also expect stronger year-over-year performance in the second half of the fiscal year as we lap easier prior year comparables. In addition, we are in an improving position to meet our strong brand demand throughout the balance of the year as our staffing levels and vacancy rates are improving, with nearly 3,500 new hires in the last seven months. Also in the second half, through the combination of our most recent pricing actions, our continued supply chain productivity improvements and cost savings initiatives, we will be better positioned to help offset ongoing inflationary pressure. We will remain nimble and use our full range of tools to offset additional inflation as needed, including potential further pricing actions where appropriate. Accordingly, we expect meaningful improvement and recovery in margins, profit and EPS in the balance of the year. And we remain confident in our plans and full year outlook. Before I turn it over to Mick, I'd like to share a change to my leadership team. First, I'd like to take a moment to thank Bob Furbee, our Executive Vice President, Global Supply Chain Officer, who will be retiring after nearly 40 years with Campbell. Bob has had a remarkable career at Campbell and has been a key part of our transformation. We are deeply grateful for his contributions and wish him the best in his retirement. As we announced in January, our incoming Executive Vice President, Chief Supply Chain Officer, Dan Poland, is working to drive operational excellence across our network. He brings extensive experience at all levels of the CPG supply chain and has a track record of building high-performing teams, delivering exceptional product quality and driving execution, which will be invaluable as we continue to deliver growth while also navigating one of the most dynamic and challenging supply chain environments. With that, I'll turn it over to Mick.

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Our second quarter fiscal 2022 results are generally consistent with our expectations, despite industry-wide inflation and supply constraints. As you heard Mark describe earlier, strong demand for our portfolio of brands continued in the second quarter. However, higher-than-expected supply chain volatility resulted in lower service levels. Additionally, as expected, accelerating core inflation in the quarter pressured margins. We continue to feel good about our initiatives to mitigate inflation, which include price increases, trade optimization, supply chain productivity improvements and cost savings initiatives. Our cash generation remains strong, with cash flow from operations of $766 million through the first half. Additionally, in line with our commitment to return value to shareholders, year-to-date, we have returned nearly $300 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Our first half performance and improving second half outlook including inflation mitigation actions, and continued strong consumer demand despite a tight, but improving labor market, give us confidence in reaffirming our full year guidance. Turning to Slide 19, organic net sales declined 2% in the quarter, lapping 5% growth in the prior year. The year-over-year volume decline due to industry-wide labor and supply challenges more than offset the favorable impact of net pricing in the quarter. Consumer demand remained strong, with second quarter dollar consumption in measured channels, three points above our total organic net sales performance. Relative to the second quarter of 2020, organic net sales grew 3%. Adjusted EBIT decreased 17% compared to the prior year quarter, and was 12% lower on a two-year basis, due to significant levels of inflation on ingredients and packaging, transportation, and labor. Remember that our Wave 2 pricing will not be fully reflected until the third quarter. Adjusted EBIT margin declined by 240 basis points to 14.4%, compared to 16.8% in the prior year. Adjusted EPS from continuing operations decreased $0.13 or 16% versus prior year quarter, and was 4% lower on a two-year basis to $0.69 per share. Year-to-date organic net sales declined 3% lapping 7% growth in the prior year period, resulting in 4% growth on a two-year basis. Adjusted EBIT decreased 16% compared to prior year, and was down 6% on a two-year basis, given significant inflation. Year-to-date, adjusted EPS decreased 13%, which grew 6% on the two-year basis as a result of deleveraging. On the next slide, I'll break down our net sales performance for the second quarter. As I mentioned, the industry-wide labor and supply challenges held back our ability to meet the continued strong demand. Organic net sales decreased 2% during the quarter, driven by an 8-point volume and mix headwind, which reflects the supply constraints. Favorable price and sales allowances drove a 5-point gain in the quarter and lower promotional spending in the quarter drove a 1-point gain. The impact of the sale of Plum subtracted 1 point. All-in, our reported net sales declined 3% from the prior year. Turning to Slide 22. Our second quarter adjusted gross margin decreased by 340 basis points from 33.8% last year to 30.4% this year. Volume/mix had a negative impact of approximately 170 basis points on gross margin, largely due to reduced operating leverage. Net price realization drove a 480 basis point improvement due to the benefits of our pricing actions, as well as lower promotional spending due to supply constraints. Inflation and other factors had a negative impact of 820 basis points, with nearly 3/4 of the decline driven by core inflation, as overall input costs on a rate basis increased by approximately 9%. Along with other industry participants, we experienced significant inflation across all input cost categories, including ingredients and packaging, transportation and labor. The remaining decline was driven by increases in other operational costs, due in part to supply chain disruptions. That said, our ongoing supply chain productivity program contributed a 140 basis points to gross margin, partially offsetting these inflationary headwinds. Our cost savings program, which is incremental to our ongoing supply chain productivity program added 30 basis points to our gross margin. The previously described initiatives to mitigate inflation, highlighted on the next page, include price increases and trade optimization, supply chain productivity improvements and cost savings initiatives and a continued focus on discretionary spending across the organization. We remain focused on inflation mitigation, as we now expect core inflation for the year to be low double digits, up from previously expected high single digits, with a more pronounced impact in the second half of fiscal 2022. Wave two pricing was effective at the end of the second quarter and will be fully reflected in the third quarter. And although for the second half of the fiscal year, we have a large proportion of our raw materials covered, from a pricing perspective, as Mark previously mentioned, we continue to closely monitor any economic impact from the current crisis in Ukraine. Moving to the next slide, we have continued to successfully deliver against our multi-year enterprise cost savings initiative. This quarter, we achieved $50 million in incremental year-over-year savings, bringing program-to-date savings to $835 million, and we remain on track to deliver total savings of $1 billion by the end of fiscal 2025, as we shared during our Investor Day. Moving on to other operating items, marketing and selling expenses decreased $35 million or 15% in the quarter on a year-over-year basis. This decrease was largely driven by lower advertising and consumer promotion expense, or A&C. Although A&C declined 27% as investment was moderated to reflect supply pressure, we expect it to normalize as supply strengthened throughout the year. Overall, our marketing and selling expenses represented 8.9% of net sales during the quarter, a 130 basis point decrease compared to last year. Adjusted administrative expenses decreased $8 million or 5% due to benefits from cost savings initiatives and lower benefits-related costs. Adjusted administrative expenses represented 6.5% of net sales during the quarter, a 20 basis point decrease compared to last year. On Slide 26, we are providing a total company adjusted EBIT bridge to summarize the key drivers of performance this quarter. As previously mentioned, adjusted EBIT declined 17% as the sales volume decline and the 340 basis point adjusted gross margin contraction resulted in a $70 million and $29 million EBIT headwind, respectively. Partially offsetting this was lower marketing and selling expenses, contributing 130 basis points to our adjusted EBIT margin. Lower adjusted administrative and higher R&D expenses had a neutral impact and lower adjusted other income had a 30 basis point negative impact. Overall, our adjusted EBIT margin decreased year-over-year by 240 basis points to 14.4%. The following chart breaks down our adjusted EPS change between our operating performance and below the line items, a $0.16 impact of lower adjusted EBIT was partially offset by a $0.02 favorable impact from lower interest expense, a $0.01 impact of lower adjusted taxes and $0.01 impact from the benefit of lower weighted average diluted shares outstanding. This resulted in adjusted EPS of $0.69, which was down $0.13 per share or 16% compared to the prior year. Turning to the segments, in meals and beverages, organic net sales which exclude the impact from the sale of Plum baby food and snacks business declined 2%, driven by declines in US Retail, including US Soup and Campbell's Pasta, as well as in Canada, largely offset by gains in foodservice. Volume declined due to supply constraints driven by labor and materials availability. Price and sales allowances were favorable in the quarter, partially offset by increased promotional spending relative to moderated levels in the prior year quarter. Sales of US Soup decreased 1%, cycling a 10% increase in the prior year quarter due to declines in condensed soup, partially offset by gains in ready-to-serve soups and broth. Segment operating earnings in the quarter decreased 19%. The decrease was primarily due to sales volume declines and lower gross margin performance, partially largely offset by lower marketing and selling expenses. Gross margin performance was impacted by higher cost inflation and other supply chain costs, unfavorable volume/mix, which was largely due to reduced operating leverage as well as higher levels of promotional spending, partially offset by the benefits of pricing actions and supply chain productivity improvement. Overall, within our meals and beverages division, the second quarter operating margin decreased year-over-year by 320 basis points to 16.7%. Within Snacks, organic net sales decreased 3%, while sales of Power Brands were up 1%. Segment sales decreased due to declines in non-core businesses and in certain salty snacks, primarily Late July snacks, partially offset by gains in Goldfish crackers. Overall, favorable price and sales allowances and lower promotional spending were more than offset by volume declines driven by significant supply constraints due to labor. Segment operating earnings in the quarter decreased 14%, driven by sales volume declines and increased administrative expenses, partially offset by lower marketing and selling expenses. Increased pricing and lower promotional activity, combined with the results of our productivity and cost savings initiatives largely offset core inflation, higher other supply chain costs and unfavorable volume/mix, which was largely due to reduced operating leverage. Overall, within our Snacks division, second quarter operating margin decreased year-over-year by 160 basis points to 13%. I'll now turn to our cash flow and liquidity. Fiscal 2022 cash flow from operations increased from $611 million in the prior year to $766 million, primarily due to changes in working capital, partially offset by lower cash earnings. Our year-to-date cash outflows for investing activities were reflective of the cash outlay for capital expenditures of $129 million, which was comparable to prior year. Given the challenging operating environment, we are now forecasting full year capital expenditures of approximately $275 million for fiscal 2022. Our year-to-date cash outflows for financing activities were $352 million, the vast majority of which are $293 million represented the return of capital to our shareholders, including $228 million of dividends and $65 million of share repurchases. At the end of the second quarter, we had approximately $475 million remaining under the current $500 million strategic share repurchase program. We also have a $250 million anti-dilutive share repurchase program, of which approximately $174 million was remaining. We ended the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $357 million. Turning to Slide 31. We continue to expect full year fiscal 2022 net sales, adjusted EBIT and adjusted EPS performance to be consistent with the guidance we provided during our first quarter earnings call. Our full year guidance reflects expected continued strong demand for the balance of the year with steady supply recovery and improved service levels, particularly in the fourth quarter as labor recovers. We have seen consistent improvements in labor attraction and retention driven through the recent recruiting actions and wage increases. However, core inflation is now expected to be low double digits for the full year. Wave 2 pricing will be fully reflected in the third quarter, and we expect to continue managing inflationary headwinds through pricing, supply chain productivity improvements and cost savings initiatives. We expect these actions and improved labor outlook and easier prior year comparisons to result in margin progress and earnings recovery in the second half. For the full year, we expect organic net sales to be minus 1% to plus 1%, adjusted EBIT of minus 4.5% to minus 1.5%, and adjusted EPS of minus 4% to flat versus the adjusted fiscal 2021 results. The sale of Plum is estimated to have an impact of one percentage point on fiscal 2022 net sales. This implies for the second half net sales growth of low to mid-single digits and double-digit growth in adjusted EBIT and adjusted EPS. Overall, our first half was generally aligned with our expectations, thanks to all the hard work by our teams. I'm truly grateful for their continued dedication and commitment. I will now turn it back to Mark for closing comments. Thank you.

Thanks, Mick. To conclude, although we fully recognize the volatile nature of the environment we remain in, we continue to deploy more of our time and resources to future plans, growth and supporting the full potential of our business. As we outlined at our recent Investor Day, we believe we have an advantaged portfolio and position going forward, and we are excited that in the second half of this fiscal year will begin to transition from defense to offense after this unprecedented period. And I could not be more confident in our team, brands and Campbell's value creation potential. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator to take your questions. Thank you.

Great. Good morning. Thanks very much for the question.

Hi, Andrew.

Hi, there. I guess I'd start with Mark, with more gross margin pressure in fiscal 2Q, now higher forecast for low double-digit inflation for the full year. It would seem that Campbell is leaning on greater SG&A leverage to sort of deliver the year. So would you say this is a fair characterization? And if so, how do you balance lower A&C spend, right, in light of the supply constraints we've talked about to sort of hit guidance with the opportunity maybe to lean in even harder or spend more on consumer outreach to retain as many new households as you can heading into really it's about fiscal 2023 and 2024, and as you said, kind of playing offense, if you will. Thanks so much.

Yes. So the short answer is, Andrew, we actually see the back half where the opportunity really resides to be more in the gross margin space. And there's a couple of reasons why. First, I'll just say from a Q2 standpoint, although a little more pressure on the top line as we went through Omicron in January and saw labor even tougher than what we had expected. From a margin standpoint and profitability standpoint, we were generally in line with what our expectation was. And so as we look into the back half of the year, certainly, we're not expecting inflation to subside. But what we do believe is that with the combination of the full impact of the second wave of pricing, along with the fact that we're going to be lapping pretty significant declines from a year ago. In fact, they're in the 300 to 400 basis point range as a comparison. And then the recovery that we expect on the supply side, which drives a host of efficiencies, as well as our underlying productivity and cost savings initiatives, we feel like we're in a much better position with many of the variables pointed in the right direction, even though you'll still have inflation as a significant variable. And so underpinning those assumptions is a fairly consistent level of costs as it relates to SG&A in total and our marketing and selling in particular, where we have been a bit below or under a year ago over these last couple of quarters, we expect it to be more in line and more consistent with where ultimately we would want to get. I still think probably a bit of management of that through the third quarter and into the balance of the year. But generally, as a good rule of thumb, we want to be around 10% of net sales. We've been hovering around closer to 8% to 9%. I think you'll see us closer to 9% to 10% as we go through the back half of the year. So our ability to invest behind the recovery of supply, given the room that we believe will have relative to the pricing as well as the comps gives us a lot of confidence to drive a positive back half and stay generally on track with where we expected to be at the turn here and this moment that we expected to be in where we begin to transition from lapping a lot tougher comparables, a lot higher starting points to a period where we can return to positive momentum, which is really something that we're excited to get to. But also I think a good way to kind of build momentum as we exit the year.

Got it. Thanks so much.

Hi, good morning.

Hey, Ken.

Thank you. I'm interested in how much your guidance considers the recent increase in costs related to transportation, fuel, and energy. Are these the primary factors influencing your decision to adjust your expectation for core inflation? I'm asking because you mentioned that you're continuing to monitor the situation in Ukraine, and I wasn't sure if that suggests you are seeing any notable impacts on these costs or how I should interpret that.

There are several points worth discussing. To begin, let me address the challenges we faced before the Ukraine-Russia situation. At this stage of the year, we're well covered, with approximately 95% of our costs and around 90% specifically for commodities. However, there remains some variability concerning logistics and the added pressure from fuel prices, which has been worsened by the recent conflict in Ukraine. We have accounted for these variables in our numbers. Regarding Ukraine and Russia, I must express my sympathy for those affected by this conflict; it is an incredibly difficult situation. From a business perspective, I want to emphasize that we do not have any sales, direct sourcing, or specific business operations in that region. The real concern lies in the macroeconomic effects of the conflict. For 2022, we have covered about 90% of our commodities, leaving us with around $150 million in costs to manage. We're particularly focused on potential impacts from items like wheat, certain metals, and packaging, along with energy and oil costs, which we believe we have accommodated in our planning. Looking ahead to 2023, there are numerous variables to consider, and we'll provide further updates on that later. I acknowledge that in today’s world, anticipating every possible variable is challenging, as demonstrated in recent years. Nonetheless, based on the information we currently have, we feel reasonably prepared. Even where potential variability exists, we've integrated that into our contingency planning and within our guidance range. Mick, do you have anything to add?

No, I think you got it. As we've mentioned before, ingredients and packing account for about 50% of our total cost of goods. To Mark's earlier point, roughly 95% of our debt is currently covered, bringing us close to the $150 million that Mark mentioned. Regarding logistics and transportation, it's a mix of availability affecting prices and the overall fuel market that we are closely monitoring, and we have some coverage on that as well. Overall, given our current situation and with half the year still ahead, we feel relatively comfortable with where we stand. However, we are closely monitoring and managing the portion that remains uncovered.

Thank you for that. Can I ask you a quick follow-up, Mick? Historically, has Campbell generally bought ahead for the items of can, ingredients and packaging throughout the year, at somewhat consistent levels from quarter-to-quarter? Or, historically, has it tended to lock in a significant amount at the end of the fiscal year with less purchasing at other times? And, I guess, I'm talking everything other than cans, of course, which I think we have a good sense of.

Yes. We tend to have a pretty steady coverage model. So I think our history on this is to try to generate predictability more than it is to necessarily try to win the commodity guessing market. And I think that consistency has been fairly in line as you look at our coverage position. Certainly, there is some variability depending on the exact market we're in. But generally speaking, our quarterly coverage for the year, the rolling forward coverage is pretty consistent.

Thank you.

Yes.

Hi. Good morning.

Hi, Chris.

Hi. Just a follow-up on the questions around margin. You have, obviously, accelerating pricing coming through, you have inflation accelerating at the same time. I'm just curious about elasticity like one other element of that equation, and it's hard to assess it at this point. It seems like its very low overall for the industry, and it has been for many of your products. Do you do that accelerating through the year as you take more pricing? And just be curious what you're seeing there right now.

Yes. There are a couple of things we're monitoring, and I’ll share our plans for the remainder of the year. As you mentioned, early on, and especially during the first wave of pricing, we haven't observed much in terms of elasticity. However, as we've dealt with some supply challenges, it's been more difficult to assess since we've essentially been shipping what we've been producing. We want to keep a close eye on this. For our planning for the remaining year, we've assumed that elasticities will increase and that there will be some additional impact from our second wave of pricing compared to the first, although we believe it will still be below historical levels due to widespread inflation in the industry. We are not assuming the full extent of elasticity, but we do expect an improvement from what we have seen. Our primary goal is to manage costs appropriately while maintaining price competitiveness and ensuring that, as we return to full supply, we balance our market share with the integrity of our brands, which we have worked hard to build over the past couple of years. We certainly do not want to compromise that with unreasonable pricing. Overall, our actions are aligned with the market, and we anticipate that elasticity will evolve as the year progresses. If it turns out to be better than expected, it could create opportunities for us in the latter part of the year. However, we believe taking a cautious approach is wise, especially considering the current state of pricing in some of our categories.

Could you clarify if the fourth quarter will provide a better supply situation for your business? Is that when you anticipate shipping more than what is consumed? Additionally, do you have an estimate of how much inventory you plan to build up in the market to improve availability in stores?

Yes. Well, I think the good news is I don't think we'll be waiting fully till Q4 to see some of that replenishment. As we pointed out, we were a little lighter in Q2 on topline than we expected. I actually think that we'll see some more recovery of that earlier on in the third quarter. And then really, I do think, though, the fourth quarter is a period where we would expect to be more fully back in business, if you broader range of the full portfolio. I think you'll see TDP levels coming back in the normal ranges. I think you'll see our support both from a marketing and trade standpoint, kind of at a sustainable ongoing level. That's the game plan. And so I think we'll probably be ahead, notwithstanding what exactly demand will look like in Q3. But I think relative to what we expect, probably a bit ahead in Q3 and probably a bit more in Q4.

Okay. Thank you.

Good morning, everyone. This is Philippe filling in for Nik. You mentioned strong underlying trends from a consumption perspective, and I wanted to inquire about your expectations for household penetration trends for the rest of the year as the economy reopens and we observe improvements in restaurant reservations and trends. What are your projections for penetration in the second half of the year?

Yes, I believe we've navigated this fluctuating period and now we're in a new normal, with a surge expected in January. As we look ahead, we have a clearer picture of times with fewer constraints compared to those heavily impacted by COVID. Our projections for the second half of the year take into account our improved ability to supply, as we faced challenges in fully meeting demand last year, particularly with certain brands like Late July, due to labor issues and capacity limitations. With these factors in mind and the return of support levels, we are confident in maintaining strong demand. Even if there is a shift towards a more balanced approach between away-from-home and in-home consumption, we believe our efforts, combined with a sustainable baseline that might be slightly lower than January's levels but comparable to last summer, will yield stable results. We expect some normalization, but with better supply and support, leading to improved overall revenue. Additionally, in the context of margins, we are reflecting on elevated levels from earlier this year. As we move into the second half, we will begin to compare against the declines already seen last year, making our comparisons for both margins and revenues more favorable.

Got it. That makes sense. And then on innovation, you mentioned a strong start to Mega Bites in Goldfish. Just if you can expand on, like, general expectation for innovation this year. And then particularly for Goldfish Mega Bites, are you trying to expand the demographic profile of the brand with innovation, and what are the early trends from a consumer standpoint?

Sure. Let me rephrase the response. I believe it’s crucial for investors to understand the recovery model as we return to full supply. I’m particularly pleased with our investments in capacity for our Goldfish, Kettle, Cape Cod, and Chunky brands. We are fully supplied and have maintained marketing support. We introduced innovations like Mega Bites and Family Size for Goldfish, new pack sizes for Kettle and Cape Cod, and flavor innovations for Chunky, backed by robust marketing campaigns. These examples represent what we expect as we fully reintegrate other brands. We aim to unlock innovation as we move through the year. Our innovation levels in the snacking sector will rise significantly compared to last year, contributing about one percentage point to revenue compared to last year's 1% to 2%. Meals & Beverage will see a similar uplift, especially with our Chunky brand and the restage of Well Yes!, which is performing well. I encourage you to observe the core soup brands to see their performance. We are strategically selecting where to invest as we address supply challenges, and I believe we will gain momentum in innovation. We are off to a strong start with the brands that are back on track, and we expect others to follow suit as we proceed through this year and into 2023, where we anticipate full capacity across our portfolio.

Got it. Thank you, guys. I’ll pass it on.

Hey, Mark, and Mick. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions.

Hey, Peter.

Mark, I would like to revisit your comments regarding the factors affecting some of the agricultural commodities outside of this year’s hedging. From what I gather, you’re suggesting that we will see a significant improvement in gross margin during the latter half of this year. However, once some of these agricultural commodity hedges expire, we might experience a decline in the first half of next year if some of these agricultural prices remain elevated. I wanted to confirm if my understanding is correct. Additionally, if this is the case, could you share your thoughts on the possibility of implementing a third round of price increases? Thank you.

Yes, that's a great question and we are currently focusing on understanding covered and uncovered positions as we prepare for next year. It's a bit early to discuss 2023 in terms of our views on inflation and its various impacts. It's important to consider the full effect of the pricing changes we are implementing now, along with some of the efficiencies gained from a more stable and fully operational supply chain, which will be beneficial for us. However, you are correct in suggesting that we may still need to consider additional pricing adjustments. We are currently evaluating how to approach this strategically and carefully, taking into account the volatility in certain commodities related to the Ukraine and Russia situation. We need more time to assess the stability of pricing and availability. That said, it is clear there will be some pressure in this regard. As we adjust pricing, we need to be increasingly strategic and precise, directly linking adjustments to areas of commodity pressure. This may lead us to consider further pricing adjustments within this fiscal year to help position ourselves for the latter part of this year and into next year.

Great. Thanks very much, Mark. That's really helpful. I’ll pass it on.

Thanks. Thanks for your comments earlier on shipments versus consumptions. I wanted to maybe get a sense from you about what's going on behind the scenes there, what's helping going into fiscal 2H. Is it your own staffing levels its freight or co-packers? Any detail would be interesting and helpful.

The main area of improvement has been in labor. In the first quarter, we expected a recovery to unfold through the second quarter into the second half of the year, but the situation with Omicron in December and January delayed that. Fortunately, the impact subsided more quickly than we had seen in previous instances, allowing us to get back on track. Our hiring efforts have helped us handle the challenges better and positioned us well for the latter part of the year. To put this into perspective, when we combined absenteeism and vacancy rates, we were experiencing low double-digit percentages. Typically, we operate around 3% to 4%, and currently, we are at about 4%. This shift has been the primary factor in enhancing our production levels to meet demand and expectations. Additionally, we are diligently working to increase our capacity. Over the past 24 months, we have added nearly 8% capacity to our network, particularly benefiting brands like Goldfish and Kettle potato chips. We are also ramping up production in areas such as tortilla chips, cookies, and sandwich crackers on Lance, which have presented challenges. Together, these improvements boost our confidence in recovery. Our execution has been commendable compared to the previous year, and I foresee further enhancements as we prioritize this core capability. We are also adding resources, particularly in operations with Dan Poland, who specializes in driving standardization and operational excellence, particularly in our Snyder's-Lance facilities. This combination of improved labor conditions and increased capacity underpins our positive outlook for recovery. I hope this provides clarity on the situation, as it’s crucial for understanding our expectations for the second half of the year.

That is helpful. I just have a small follow-up on retailer inventory. Where would you say that stands compared to historical levels? I think you were hinting at having shipments outpacing consumption in fiscal 4Q, but I'm not sure if I understood that correctly.

Yes, I would say we are currently low. It definitely varies by category, but compared to our historical position, especially considering the challenges we faced in January, I believe we are beginning to see some recovery as we move forward. The reality is that many of our businesses are experiencing share challenges and percentage losses in distribution, which can be closely monitored through TDPs. Areas that are starting to recover indicate a return to more normal levels of share growth and performance. As inventory improves and we see recovery, these factors together will provide a positive boost, increasing our confidence that we will reach positive territory. I expect it will likely take until Q4 for everything to be fully balanced, but I do anticipate recovery in Q3 and potentially opportunities to adjust ahead of consumption as early as parts of Q3.