CSX Fair Value Estimate
$33.5725.6% overvalued
Blended fair value estimate based on DCF, Graham Number, and earnings-based models.
CSX Corp
Exchange: NASDAQSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Railroads
CSX Corporation (CSX), together with its subsidiaries, is a transportation supplier. The Company provides rail-based transportation services, including traditional rail service and the transport of intermodal containers and trailers. CSX's operating subsidiary, CSX Transportation, Inc. (CSXT), provides link to the transportation supply chain through its approximately 21,000 route mile rail network, which serves centers in 23 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. It has access to over 70 ocean, river and lake port terminals along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, the Mississippi River, the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence Seaway. The Company's intermodal business links customers to railroads through trucks and terminals. CSXT also serves production and distribution facilities through track connections to approximately 240 short-line and regional railroads.
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A large-cap company with a $83.8B market cap.
Current Price
$45.09
-0.75%GoodMoat Value
$33.57
25.6% overvaluedProfile
Valuation (TTM)
Market Cap$83.85B
P/E27.49
EV$90.71B
P/B6.37
Shares Out1.86B
P/Sales5.93
Revenue$14.15B
EV/EBITDA15.72
CSX Corp (CSX) Valuation
GoodMoat Analysis
Based on the GoodMoat Investment Framework, CSX Corp appears unfavourable from a value investing perspective. The current price of $39.57 is 17.9% above the GoodMoat Target of $33.57, indicating a negative margin of safety. Furthermore, its P/E of 25.5x is elevated relative to its negative revenue growth.
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The primary valuation assessment shows a significant hurdle for a value investor. The GoodMoat Target of $33.57 represents a fair value estimate. At a current price of $39.57, the stock trades at a 17.9% premium, resulting in a negative margin of safety. According to the framework's DCF bands, this falls into the 'Unfavourable' category (MoS < 10%). The forward P/E of 25.5x must be contextualized against growth. While the P/E itself is not extreme, it is high for a company showing a -0.9% YoY revenue decline, suggesting the market is pricing in a recovery not yet evident in the top line. The P/E is also likely above the sector average for industrials, which typically trade at lower multiples. The free cash flow yield of 2.4% is modest, translating to a high P/FCF multiple of approximately 41.7x, which is not favourable for a low-growth business. When integrating valuation with the business profile, the stock appears expensive relative to its current quality and growth metrics, lacking the margin of safety a value investor requires.
CSX Valuation Metrics
FCF$1.79B
FCF Growth Rate-10.35%
EPS Growth (CAGR)-2.34%
WACC10.00%
Fair Value Models
Graham Number, PEG-based, and Earnings-based models
View Fair Value →CSX Valuation & Fair Value Analysis
CSX Corp (CSX) valuation analysis using multiple fair value methodologies. GoodMoat calculates a blended fair value target using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, the Graham Number, and earnings-based valuation models.
The GoodMoat Fair Value target for CSX Corp is $33.57. The current stock price is $45.09, suggesting the stock is 34.3% overvalued.
The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 27.49. Price-to-book ratio is 6.37. Price-to-sales ratio is 5.93. Enterprise value to EBITDA is 15.72. PEG ratio is 1.04.
GoodMoat's valuation models include the Graham Number (based on EPS and book value), an earnings-based model (discounted future EPS), and a PEG-adjusted valuation. The three models are averaged to produce a blended fair value estimate. Use these tools alongside the DCF calculator and reverse DCF to form a comprehensive view of CSX Corp's intrinsic value.