DAL Fair Value Estimate
$141.75107.2% undervalued
Blended fair value estimate based on DCF, Graham Number, and earnings-based models.
Delta Air Lines Inc
Exchange: NYSESector: IndustrialsIndustry: Airlines
Through exceptional service and the power of innovation, Delta Air Lines never stops looking for ways to make every trip feel tailored to every customer. There are 100,000 Delta people leading the way to deliver a world-class customer experience on up to 5,500 daily Delta and Delta Connection flights to more than 300 destinations on six continents, connecting people to places and to each other. Delta served more than 200 million customers in 2025 – safely, reliably and with industry-leading customer service innovation – and was recognized by Cirium for being the top on-time airline in North America for the fifth consecutive year. We remain committed to ensuring that the future of travel is connected, personalized and enjoyable. Our people's genuine, enduring motivation is to make every customer feel welcomed and cared for across every point of their journey with us. Headquartered in Atlanta, Delta operates significant hubs and key markets in Amsterdam, Atlanta, Bogota, Boston, Detroit, Lima, London-Heathrow, Los Angeles, Mexico City, Minneapolis-St. Paul, New York-JFK and LaGuardia, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, Salt Lake City, Santiago (Chile), Sao Paulo, Seattle, Seoul-Incheon and Tokyo. As the leading global airline, Delta's mission to connect the world creates opportunities, fosters understanding and expands horizons by connecting people and communities to each other and to their own potential. A founding member of the SkyTeam alliance and powered by innovative and strategic partnerships throughout the world with Aeromexico, Air France-KLM, China Eastern, Korean Air, LATAM, Virgin Atlantic and WestJet, Delta brings more choice and competition to customers worldwide. Delta's premium product line is elevated by its unique partnership with Wheels Up Experience. Delta is America's most-awarded airline thanks to the dedication, passion and professionalism of its people. In addition to the award from Cirium, Delta has been recognized as the World's Most Admired Airline and one of the Best 100 Companies to Work For according to Fortune; the top carrier for business travelers by Business Travel News; and best U.S. airline by Forbes Travel Guide's Verified Air Travel Awards. In addition, Delta has been named to the Civic 50 by Points of Light as one of the most community minded companies in the U.S.
Did you know?
Capital expenditures decreased by 12% from FY24 to FY25.
Current Price
$68.41
-2.58%GoodMoat Value
$141.75
107.2% undervaluedProfile
Valuation (TTM)
Market Cap$44.68B
P/E9.98
EV$58.49B
P/B2.14
Shares Out653.13M
P/Sales0.69
Revenue$65.18B
EV/EBITDA6.85
Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) Valuation
GoodMoat Analysis
Delta Air Lines appears deeply undervalued based on the GoodMoat Target, offering a significant margin of safety. However, this low valuation is typical for the airline sector and reflects the industry's inherent challenges, including cyclicality and high capital intensity, which conflict with core value investing principles of durable moats and high-quality financials.
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From a pure price-to-value perspective, the current situation is favourable. The stock price of $67.99 is 38% below the GoodMoat Target of $108.81, which exceeds the 20% threshold for a 'Favourable' margin of safety and falls into the 'Deeply Undervalued' band (>40% MoS) within the framework's valuation assessment. The forward P/E of approximately 8.9x is also low, both historically and relative to the broader market, and the Free Cash Flow Yield of 8.7% is attractive. This suggests the market is pricing in significant pessimism. However, applying the full investment framework provides crucial context. Airlines, including Delta, typically score low on Moat Identification due to high competition, low switching costs, and vulnerability to economic cycles. Key Quality Indicators like an asset-light model and high, stable gross margins are not present. The sector's sensitivity to macro factors, fuel costs, and high financial leverage (Debt/Equity of 0.97) are consistent with several High Confidence Red Flags, including Macro Sensitivity and potential for Margin Compression. Therefore, while the valuation metrics alone signal a bargain, the underlying business characteristics do not align with the durable competitive advantages and financial resilience prioritized by the framework's first gate. The low price may compensate for these risks, but it does not transform the fundamental business model.
DAL Valuation Metrics
FCF$3.84B
FCF Growth Rate1.62%
EPS Growth (CAGR)0.82%
WACC10.00%
Fair Value Models
Graham Number, PEG-based, and Earnings-based models
View Fair Value →DAL Valuation & Fair Value Analysis
Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) valuation analysis using multiple fair value methodologies. GoodMoat calculates a blended fair value target using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, the Graham Number, and earnings-based valuation models.
The GoodMoat Fair Value target for Delta Air Lines Inc is $141.75. The current stock price is $68.41, suggesting the stock is 107.2% undervalued.
The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 9.98. Price-to-book ratio is 2.14. Price-to-sales ratio is 0.69. Enterprise value to EBITDA is 6.85. PEG ratio is -0.05.
GoodMoat's valuation models include the Graham Number (based on EPS and book value), an earnings-based model (discounted future EPS), and a PEG-adjusted valuation. The three models are averaged to produce a blended fair value estimate. Use these tools alongside the DCF calculator and reverse DCF to form a comprehensive view of Delta Air Lines Inc's intrinsic value.