DOV Fair Value Estimate
$125.3244.5% overvalued
Blended fair value estimate based on DCF, Graham Number, and earnings-based models.
Dover Corp
Exchange: NYSESector: IndustrialsIndustry: Specialty Industrial Machinery
Dover is a diversified global manufacturer and solutions provider with annual revenue of over $8 billion. We deliver innovative equipment and components, consumable supplies, aftermarket parts, software and digital solutions, and support services through five operating segments: Engineered Products, Clean Energy & Fueling, Imaging & Identification, Pumps & Process Solutions and Climate & Sustainability Technologies. Dover combines global scale with operational agility to lead the markets we serve. Recognized for our entrepreneurial approach for over 70 years, our team of approximately 24,000 employees takes an ownership mindset, collaborating with customers to redefine what's possible. Headquartered in Downers Grove, Illinois, Dover trades on the New York Stock Exchange under "DOV."
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Trading 44% above its estimated fair value of $125.32.
Current Price
$225.79
-0.27%GoodMoat Value
$125.32
44.5% overvaluedProfile
Valuation (TTM)
Market Cap$30.45B
P/E27.64
EV$30.77B
P/B4.11
Shares Out134.87M
P/Sales3.68
Revenue$8.28B
EV/EBITDA17.04
Dover Corp (DOV) Valuation
GoodMoat Analysis
Dover Corp appears unfavourable from a value investing perspective, trading at a significant premium to its estimated intrinsic value with a narrow margin of safety. Its current P/E multiple is elevated relative to its historical average and sector, while its growth and cash flow yield do not justify the premium.
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The primary valuation tool in the framework is a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, which indicates the stock is overvalued. The current price of $213.87 is 71% above the GoodMoat Target of $125.32. This results in a negative margin of safety, placing it firmly in the 'Unfavourable' band per Section 4, which requires a margin of safety of at least 20% to be considered favourable. Supporting this view, the forward P/E of 27.0x is high. It exceeds the sector average for industrials and is above the stock's own typical historical range, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic growth. For context, a P/E of 25-26x can be reasonable for a company growing at 50%, but Dover's revenue growth is 8.8% YoY, making the multiple appear stretched. The Free Cash Flow Yield of 3.8% (implying a P/FCF of ~26x) further indicates the price is high relative to cash generation. While Dover demonstrates solid profitability with a 17.0% operating margin and a manageable debt level, its valuation multiples are not justified by its current growth profile, offering no margin of safety for a value-oriented investor. Analysis based on data as of 2024-05-15.
DOV Valuation Metrics
FCF$1.12B
FCF Growth Rate6.58%
EPS Growth (CAGR)8.30%
WACC10.00%
Fair Value Models
Graham Number, PEG-based, and Earnings-based models
View Fair Value →DOV Valuation & Fair Value Analysis
Dover Corp (DOV) valuation analysis using multiple fair value methodologies. GoodMoat calculates a blended fair value target using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, the Graham Number, and earnings-based valuation models.
The GoodMoat Fair Value target for Dover Corp is $125.32. The current stock price is $225.79, suggesting the stock is 80.2% overvalued.
The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 27.64. Price-to-book ratio is 4.11. Price-to-sales ratio is 3.68. Enterprise value to EBITDA is 17.04. PEG ratio is 5.16.
GoodMoat's valuation models include the Graham Number (based on EPS and book value), an earnings-based model (discounted future EPS), and a PEG-adjusted valuation. The three models are averaged to produce a blended fair value estimate. Use these tools alongside the DCF calculator and reverse DCF to form a comprehensive view of Dover Corp's intrinsic value.