Fedex Corp (FDX) — Q2 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Good afternoon, and welcome to FedEx Corporation’s second quarter earnings conference call. The second quarter Form 10-Q, earnings release and stat book are on our website at fedex.com. This call is being streamed from our website where the replay will be available for about one year. Joining us on the call today are members of the media. During our question-and-answer session, callers will be limited to one question in order to allow us to accommodate all those who would like to participate. I want to remind all listeners that FedEx Corporation desires to take advantage of the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Certain statements in this conference call, such as projections regarding future performance may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Act. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. For additional information on these factors, please refer to our press releases and filings with the SEC. Please refer to the Investor Relations portion of our website at fedex.com for a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Joining us on the call today are Fred Smith, Chairman and CEO; Raj Subramaniam, President and COO; Mike Lenz, Executive Vice President and CFO; Mark Allen, Executive VP, General Counsel and Secretary; Rob Carter, Executive VP, FedEx Information Services and CIO; Brie Carere, Executive Vice President, Chief Marketing and Communications Officer; Don Colleran, President and CEO of FedEx Express; Henry Maier, President and CEO of FedEx Ground; and John Smith, President and CEO of FedEx Freight. And now, Fred Smith will share his views on the quarter.

Thank you, Mickey. Let me make one administrative comment. Due to the COVID-19 situation, we have four members of our SMC spatially distanced in one room and then five members of the SMC are participating by Zoom with us. So, we may be a little clunky here and inoff for the answers, but that’s the reason. Let me first thank our FedEx team, nearly 600,000 strong. These team members have continued to keep the world moving amid the pandemic, transporting medicines, protective gear and all the things our customers need for daily life and all of our B2B customers need to run their industries. And now, our team is acting on months of rigorous planning to transport COVID-19 vaccines safely and on time. We have no higher priority as a company. Time-definite Express transportation of critical shipments is exactly what our air-ground network was built to do. And we have the experience, unmatched global network and technology solutions needed to effectively play our role in helping to eradicate this awful disease. Particularly important has been the recent rollout of our new proprietary SenseAware ID system, which provides real-time visibility of vital shipments, like the vaccines. In addition to this critical work, we’re in the midst of our peak holiday shipping season, where we expect record-breaking volumes. Our strong revenue and earnings growth during the second quarter is another reflection of the continued hard work of our team members and their commitment to our customers. We’re very confident in our strategies and extremely optimistic for FedEx's future. Let me now ask Brie, Raj, and Mike, who I’d like to officially welcome to his first earnings call as our CFO to provide their comments, after which we will take your questions. Brie?

Thank you, Fred, and good afternoon, everyone. With the coronavirus and its third surge in many countries, the near-term economic outlook remains unclear. In the U.S., goods spending is above pre-pandemic levels, powered by gains in e-commerce. We’re also seeing growth beyond the consumer as drivers of business activity are increasingly in place. Inventory restocking and a strong recovery in capital goods spending are supporting industrial production. Positive developments on the vaccine front should strengthen the appetite for investment. However, the service sector does remain challenged and faces short-term uncertainty against the latest virus surge. When the health emergency ends and pent-up services demand is released, we should see a long growth runway. International growth rebounded in the third quarter of calendar year 2020 with the goods sector outperforming services. Global industrial production and merchandise trade volumes are close to full pre-COVID recovery. Sentiment among manufacturing firms is solid, while trade growth is becoming more broadly based around the world. China’s economy has surpassed pre-COVID levels and is leading a strong recovery in East Asia. In contrast, however, Europe has been slower to recover and faces short-term headwinds from virus containment. While uncertainty remains high, vaccine prospects are increasing confidence in the medium-term outlook. As I discussed last quarter, the acceleration of e-commerce has had a profound impact on our industry. This holiday shipping season has certainly proved that. The pandemic has accelerated the growth of e-commerce volumes. In the first nine months of 2020, U.S. e-commerce sales grew 33% year-over-year, while traditional retail sales, excluding auto, gas, food service and goods services grew a little more than 1% year-over-year. E-commerce package volumes are expected to more than triple to 111 million packages per day by 2026, up from 35 million in 2019. On the last call, you heard me call this peak season as the shipathon, as we prepared for unprecedented levels of online shopping and shipping this holiday season. We have worked very closely with our customers to get the shop early, ship early message out to consumers, and we’ve been incredibly pleased with their response. While available capacity across the entire industry has been severely constrained, we have worked with our customers to develop innovative solutions to meet their capacity needs this peak. The proactive steps we took to prepare for the growth of e-commerce, including the expansion of FedEx Ground seven-day a week U.S. residential delivery, investments in automated facilities and our retail convenience networks have certainly paid off. We expanded Sunday residential delivery to nearly 95% of the U.S. population in September. Since then, we have made more than 50 million Sunday residential deliveries. Our investment in seven-day delivery has given us a speed advantage for e-commerce that is near-impossible to match without a national Sunday delivery offering. The convenience of our retail network has led to record volume growth with more than a 60% increase in average daily volume from October 15th to November 30th. We are very pleased with our Walgreens and Dollar General alliances and the services they’re providing our customers, and of course, a huge shout out to the FedEx office team who always does an incredible job at peak. We have also set new record highs in returns volume for the past six consecutive months. With the return season upon us, we expect these record highs to continue over the next several months. I am incredibly proud of how we have grown our digital e-commerce portfolio. FedEx Delivery Manager monthly enrollments have increased more than 70% year-over-year this fiscal year-to-date. And of course, we are thrilled to expand our digital portfolio with the pending ShopRunner acquisition. It is no secret that the success in e-commerce lies at the intersection of a superb physical network and incredible digital capabilities. Raj will talk more about this later. Turning to revenue quality. We have remained laser-focused throughout this peak on ensuring capacity for customers is at the right price, enabling us to provide the best possible service for all of our customers. Our revenue quality strategy requires the right balance of yield management, surcharges and, of course, product and customer mix. As discussed last quarter, the implementation of several peak surcharges have played a critical role in our revenue quality strategy this peak, helping to offset, of course, the additional expenses associated with the unprecedented volume and the virus surging. I believe peak surcharges for the holiday season are the new normal for our industry. In FY 2021 Q2, FedEx had a total U.S. domestic residential package volume of 67% versus 57% a year ago. With the increase of residential packages in our networks, we’ve been very focused on effective yield and product mix. In FY 2021 Q2, we have increased SmartPost yield by more than 20% year-over-year and overall U.S. domestic residential yields by 10% year-over-year. We announced yesterday that we would modify several surcharges post-peak, and those will be effective January 18, 2021. Finally, paramount to our revenue quality strategy is the growth of our small and medium segment. As such, we continue to protect the majority of our small and medium customers from the SmartPost change and temporary surcharges. We are taking market share in the small and medium segment, and it is our strongest growing volume segment year-over-year. We are increasingly digitizing our go-to-market strategies to improve their customer experience while continuing to help the small and medium businesses grow their business, despite the challenges they have faced this past year. As Fred discussed, FedEx is proud to be one of the two primary carriers of the COVID-19 vaccine in the United States. We will play a critical role in the distribution of vaccines around the world for months to come. Now, let me turn to international. Current estimates indicate that as of October, the global air cargo market capacity was down 23% year-over-year due to the significant reduction in passenger aircraft flying. Air cargo demand is expected to recover to pre-COVID levels faster than passenger capacity for key intercontinental lanes, creating an opportunity for FedEx. Currently, Asia to U.S. and Asia to Europe passenger capacity is expected to recover to pre-COVID levels by 2023 and Europe to U.S. is expected to recover by 2024. Our goal is to profitably take market share and keep it beyond the capacity shortage internationally. As such, we are prioritizing business from small and medium customers, and reprioritizing any volume from resellers, ensuring we protect the business that will stay with FedEx for the long term. We are balancing near-term profitability while strategically growing our customer base internationally. With constrained capacity, we have adjusted transit times and embargoed our deferred services. We will continue to lean into international e-commerce as it remains a significant international market opportunity. It will also enable improved flight density to further increase revenue per flight. E-commerce will, however, drive lighter international parcels. So, yields per pound will become an increasingly important metric. In Q2, ‘21, international export air express yield per pound was double digits year-over-year globally. So, in summary, I’m incredibly pleased with our performance during this past quarter. We’ve nimbly navigated the shipathon all while planning for key initiatives that will positively impact our business for many years to come. And with that, I’ll turn it over to Raj for his remarks.

Thank you, Brie, and good afternoon, everybody. Let me start by echoing Fred’s sentiments in thanking our global team members, especially those on the front line, who are working diligently to keep the world in motion during this truly unprecedented time. We are in the midst of an extraordinary peak season with shipathon as we handle record-breaking volumes and deliver strong service for our customers. While our regular peak season falls in November and December, our preparations this year were months in the making. In many ways, we have been operating at peak-like levels since March due to service and e-commerce volume. We planned meticulously throughout this year, including collaborating with our customers on innovative solutions, enhancing capacity through new and repurpose facilities and leveraging the flexibility of our network to ensure we are well-positioned to deliver during our busiest holiday shipping season to date. As we handle these record volumes, we’re also delivering the first wave of COVID-19 vaccine shipments here in the U.S. In fact, on December the 14th at 5:53 am Eastern, the FedEx Express courier made the first U.S. vaccine delivery to Boston Medical Center in Boston, Massachusetts. Our team stands ready to transport additional vaccine shipments internationally as they become available. This effort is among the most important work in the history of our company. And we are honored and proud to be a part of effort to help end this pandemic. As Fred highlighted, our unparalleled Express network was built for time-definite shipments such as these vaccines. The scale of the FedEx network is massive comprised of 680 aircraft, 200,000 vehicles and most importantly our nearly 600,000 dedicated team members around the world. The power of our network is such that FedEx can pick up a shipment in most any one part of the world and deliver to most any other part of the world in a matter of a couple of days. And the distinction between our networks means that each will have the dedicated resources they need to deliver quickly and safely. It is precisely this part that will be critical in delivering our very important mission at hand, the mission to distribute COVID-19 vaccines. Simply put, a global health crisis of this scale requires a network of our scale to address. This is who we are and what we do. Now, turning to Q2. We delivered strong results across the board. Mike will provide details, but I would like to highlight that we achieved volume, yield, and significant profit growth in each of our transportation segments this quarter. These results were largely driven by many of the strategic investments and decisions we have put in place over the last 18 months to address the growing e-commerce market. These include expanding the U.S. Ground residential delivery to every day of the week; integrating SmartPost package volumes into the Ground network to improve density; investing in technologies that enable real-time decisions and optimize the critical last mile; building our network’s capabilities and expanding services to more efficiently handle an increase in large items; and accelerating the expansion of our retail convenience network, including Dollar General and Walgreens, and of course, our own FedEx office locations. These initiatives increase density, improve last mile efficiency and help us prepare for the peak season. Indeed, Q2 was a critical quarter for FedEx Ground with a combination of many of these foundational initiatives. Now, turning to FedEx Express. They simply had a banner quarter. This record revenue performance is a direct reflection of the global Express team’s laser focus on executing our profitable growth strategy and operational excellence. The TNT physical integration remained on fire, even in shutdowns during the pandemic. We continue to build a strong portfolio, leveraging the benefits of further network integration to pave the way for success in Europe for years to come. And finally, FedEx Freight had another outstanding quarter with a double-digit operating margin. The Freight team remains focused on profitable growth and revenue quality. As we said, the success of Q2 was a direct result of the strategy which we started nearly two years ago, and we are well positioned for the future of FedEx. During our September shareholder meeting, we introduced our new strategic operating principles, which are, compete collectively; operate collaboratively; and innovate digitally. The shift in our operating principles is yet another step in our long-term future-ready strategy. Let me take a moment to talk about each in turn. Compete collectively remains core. Each FedEx operating company offers a unique value proposition and they each play a vital role in delivering on customer expectations. It is when these companies compete collectively under the powerful FedEx brand that we unlock new opportunities for our customers. Brie has already touched on the various ways we’re unleashing value for our customers. So, I’ll focus on the two new principles, operate collaboratively and innovate digitally. Operate collaboratively is an important and strategic shift for FedEx. While our networks and the expertise that lies within our operating companies are and will remain independent, we are building a holistic collaborative approach to compete in the dynamic market. By operating collaboratively, we help ensure that we have the right package in the right networks at the right costs to serve. We have discussed various examples of collaboration in previous earnings calls, including last mile optimization and FedEx Freight’s ongoing support of FedEx Ground. These are just a couple of ways we are adapting, collaborating and utilizing different elements of our network to increase efficiency and reduce cost to serve. The final principle, innovate digitally, is how we will deliver the future for our customers, shareholders and team members. The size and scale of our network and the many millions of packages that transfer every day gives us a bird’s eye view on global supply chains and trends. Beyond our physical infrastructure, it’s the technology that drives our network and generates a significant amount of data. We’re focused on using this data and technology to unlock stronger performance, strengthen customer relationships and drive greater efficiency. Over the recent weeks and months, we have made significant strides on our journey to innovate digitally. First, the formation of FedEx data works and the new organization focused on putting our data into context and using it to transform the digital and physical experience of our customers and team members. Second is a recently announced agreement to acquire ShopRunner. This platform will accelerate our ability to play a larger role in e-commerce by connecting brands and merchants to new shoppers, thus improving online shopping experiences. ShopRunner’s existing customer brand and merchant base, product capabilities and team of professionals will drive significant value as we expand our e-commerce portfolio. This recent digital momentum combined with our ongoing collaboration with Microsoft and the launches of our SenseAware ID and FedEx Surround will allow us to follow immense data we collect to identify new ways to work even smarter. As Fred said, we remain very confident in our strategies and the future of FedEx. With that, let me turn it over to Mike for his inaugural call as the Chief Financial Officer. Mike?

Thank you, Raj, and good afternoon, everyone. Before I move into the financials, I’d like to highlight a few points as the new voice on the call. First, I’d like to recognize the legacy of Alan Graf in building the world-class team I now lead and thank him for his leadership and guidance along the way. The values and standards he instilled are an exceptional foundation for me to build upon in the years ahead. Next, I have appreciated the opportunity to meet with many of you on the call today, over the past few years and hear your perspectives. I look forward to continuing that important dialogue and sharing what’s ahead for FedEx, and hopefully with a post-COVID environment becoming more visible, the opportunities to connect will expand in the months ahead. Finally, I must say how inspiring it has been to see team FedEx in action from my new vantage point. From the executives on this call to the front line team members working tirelessly, as we speak to deliver in this unprecedented environment, it reinforces what we have said before that the strategies we have in place are future-ready and make me truly excited for what lies ahead. Turning to the results. I’m very pleased with our second quarter performance. Second quarter adjusted operating income increased 121% year-over-year, primarily due to international priority volume growth of 32%, continued strong demand for U.S. residential delivery, pricing initiatives, operating margin improvements across all our transportation segments and a $70 million benefit from a reduction in aviation excise taxes provided by the CARES Act. These factors were partially offset by higher costs driven by the package volume surge and expanded service offerings at FedEx Ground, an approximate $215 million year-over-year increase in variable compensation expense, and an approximate $50 million in COVID-19-related costs to ensure the safety of team members and customers. These COVID-19-related costs that we have quantified are limited to increased operating expenses related to personal protective equipment, medical and safety supplies and additional security and cleaning services. And they do not include costs of network contingencies, including additional personnel in place to support our operations through the COVID pandemic. For the quarter, all three of our transportation segments posted strong results. Driven by the strong global volume growth Express revenues increased $1.3 billion. Coupled with solid operational execution, Express generated an adjusted operating margin of 9.1%, up more than 500 basis points, and a record second quarter adjusted operating profit of $943 million. The Ground segment operating margin improved 110 basis points to 7.5% as our strategies to capitalize on the rapid growth of e-commerce continued to advance. The Freight segment earned a stellar 13% operating margin, the second-best second quarter margin in 15 years, by focusing on revenue quality and aligning cost to volumes. We incurred a pre-tax noncash mark to market net loss of $52 million related to amendments to the TNT Express Netherlands Pension Plan. Benefits will be frozen and affected employees will begin earning pension benefits under a separate multiemployer defined contribution plan. Our effective tax rate was 12.8% for the second quarter compared to 2.1% in the prior year period. This year’s tax rate was favorably impacted by a tax benefit of $191 million, primarily attributable to favorable depreciation guidance issued by the IRS during the quarter. That compares to the prior year period, which included a tax benefit of $133 million on substantially lower earnings. We ended the quarter with $8.3 billion in cash and equivalents and with $3.5 billion available under our credit facilities. Looking forward, we are not providing a forecast of expected earnings per share for the remainder of fiscal 2021. While current business demand continued to improve in the second quarter, the current rise in COVID-19 cases globally adds significant uncertainty to demand forecasts, as well as operating costs and clouds our ability to forecast full year earnings. However, based on the current trends in our business, we anticipate increased demand to result in higher year-over-year revenue and operating income at FedEx Ground and FedEx Express for the remainder of fiscal 2021. In addition, yield management and improved productivity is anticipated to contribute to revenue and operating income growth at FedEx Freight in FY21. If our current trends continue, we expect higher variable compensation accruals and increased labor costs to be incurred during the remainder of fiscal 2021. In addition, we expect a higher effective income tax rate for the second half of the year versus the first half. During the third quarter, we also expect to see headwinds from aircraft maintenance costs and the end of benefits from the CARES Act. In addition, the third quarter will have one fewer operating weekday versus last year. We incurred $48 million of TNT integration expenses in the second quarter, down from $64 million in the prior year period. We expect the aggregate integration program expense to be $1.7 billion through the completion of the physical network integration of TNT Express into FedEx Express in early calendar 2022. As we approach the completion of the physical network integration in early ‘22, we are evaluating opportunities and pursuing initiatives in addition to the integration to further transform and optimize the FedEx Express international business, particularly in Europe. The cost to the ShopRunner acquisition, which Raj highlighted earlier, will not be material and will be funded with existing cash balances. We expect to complete the transaction this month. We continue to expect our FY21 capital expenditures will total approximately $5.1 billion, which is $800 million lower than last year’s capital spending. While we won’t finalize our FY22 capital spending plan until our fourth quarter, we expect that our FY22 capital spending will increase versus this year. In FY22, we plan to make additional investments in our FedEx Ground network driven by the surge in e-commerce demand. Our CapEx focus remains on strategic investments that will reduce our cost structure, improve our efficiency and increase our capacity to profitably meet market demands. I’ll close by reiterating our excitement and confidence in our future as we continue to benefit from our strong tradition in the U.S. and international package and freight markets, yield improvement opportunities and cost management initiatives. And with that, we can turn to the question-and-answer session.

Yes. Thank you very much. Henry, probably a question for you on the Ground side. Insane growth there, and I know that there’s a lot of investments going on to make sure all the packages get delivered. Right now, it’s only showing about a 10% incremental margin, and everybody wants to get back closer to mid-teens. How should we think about everything going on at Ground, the investments weighing on the margin and then the consolidation of SmartPost into Ground helping the margin as we move over the next couple of years?

Thanks, David. As Mike mentioned, margins in the second quarter improved by 110 basis points, and operating income increased by 61% compared to last year. Given the unique situation leading up to peak season, our resource ramp-up was quite different from previous years. Preparation expenses for peak were significantly higher and occurred earlier than usual as we anticipated potential impacts from COVID on resource availability and customer volume timing. We have been very proactive in hiring new package handlers, and we are currently onboarding record numbers. We understand the challenges that service providers face when adding drivers and vehicles, so we adjusted the peak settlement rates several weeks in advance to help their businesses prepare. These factors contributed to higher-than-normal operating expenses related to peak preparation in the second quarter. Additionally, merits and accruals for variable compensation impacted year-over-year comparisons. Our investments in preparing for this year's peak involved adding capacity, including six new regional sort facilities, four new automated stations, and eight new or expanded large package facilities, along with enhancing over 50 facilities with more automation and material handling equipment. Several of these facilities became operational later this year than in previous years due to COVID-related permitting and construction delays. For instance, the last regional sort facility went online just before Thanksgiving, which was about four to six weeks later than usual. As we mentioned in the second quarter, we expanded our coverage of seven-day residential service from 60% to 95% of the U.S. population. This expansion required adding sorts and automated package processing facilities, along with pre-loads that were not available on Sundays in about 50 stations. Finally, assuming no major changes in business conditions as we currently see them, we expect margin improvement to continue year-over-year in each of the next two quarters. Thank you for your question.

Hey. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. Maybe this one is for Raj or Brie. Can you guys just dig a little bit deeper into the ShopRunner acquisition? Because I think in the prepared comments and also the release tonight, you talked about how you really want to integrate better with retailers and customers on an end-to-end basis. So, is this more about the current user base of ShopRunner or is this offering incentives to the retailers there, or is this even more of a play on the technology of the company? Thank you.

Thank you, Brandon. I'll begin and then pass it over to Brie. To provide some context, technology and talent are essential elements in this process. The technology platform that links brands and merchants with consumers holds significant importance. Additionally, combining these capabilities with FedEx’s physical and digital infrastructure is crucial. ShopRunner serves as an established e-commerce platform that connects online shoppers with their preferred brands and merchants, offering member benefits and a smooth checkout experience. Our aim is to foster a more open, collaborative e-commerce ecosystem that serves both merchants and shoppers. We believe this partnership is a strong fit and will be successful as we integrate the technology and expertise from ShopRunner with our own capabilities. Brie, would you like to add anything?

Sure. Thanks Raj. We’re very excited about the ShopRunner acquisition and having Sam and his team join us. We have some interesting product capabilities that I’m not going to be able to share all the details at this point. But, I think the three things from a go-to-market and a value driver that we see in the very near-term as we’re looking at the ShopRunner acquisition, the first is that we have the logistics capabilities to create greater certainty with the existing ShopRunner offering to consumers. We can work with their brands to make the reality even more efficient on their current offering. Second, with their order catalog and their data visibility into these brands, we can see us streamline operations. This is an incredible advantage from a logistics optimization. Third, when you think about the post-purchase experience, and you can take ShopRunner’s order catalog without post-purchase visibility into transit, we think that we will have a best-in-class post-purchase consumer experience. So, those are the first three things out of the gate, but we’ve got a lot more to come and we’re super excited. Great question.

Yes. Thanks for taking my questions. Looking forward, there are so many cross currents driving really good results in parts of your businesses and challenges and others right now. I was hoping you could talk about some of the FedEx verticals, be they like customer or type of business or product that are really still quite a bit below the pre-COVID baseline and whether or not you’re excited about the recovery in that space, as we dig deeper into next year and the year beyond? Thank you.

Let me begin by saying that we are enthusiastic about our performance across all our business segments this quarter. It's truly exciting to observe the progress we’re making. Clearly, the fastest-growing segment is e-commerce, and as we continue to enhance our density and other metrics within our systems, performance is expected to improve further. Regarding the industrial production and business segment, we are witnessing a recovery, presenting upside opportunities. Inventory levels show that the sales ratio is at an all-time low for retail and a six-year low for manufacturing. As recovery progresses and restocking occurs in the coming months, this should positively impact our core business. We are particularly pleased with our rapid growth in e-commerce, and the investments we've made are aligning perfectly with this trend. Moreover, in our international segment, we recognize that the capacity we currently provide is at a premium, and we anticipate that this advantage will persist. As businesses continue to recover and the B2B segment rebounds, we expect this to enhance our existing trends. Looking ahead, while COVID-19 presents short-term challenges, we remain optimistic about the medium-term trajectory of these trends. Brie, would you like to add anything?

No, I think, you’ve covered. I think, the only other detail that I would add is we’re not quite there yet from a recovery from a B2B perspective. We have seen strong momentum and some early, early signs coming out of Europe. That’s obviously where it’s most important to us from a business mix perspective. And my hat’s off to the European team. They have done some incredible work this year, while their B2B business has not come back. So, that is additive to where we’re at right now for sure.

I heard you mention in the last quarter's call that there was B2B growth in August. I would like to know how that has trended since then. Also, could you clarify the differences in trends you're observing between Europe and the U.S.?

Okay. I’ll begin, and Don and Brie can assist me. In the United States, the B2B sector started to improve at the beginning of Q2 and gained strength throughout the quarter. As you mentioned, industrial production has begun to recover from the pandemic crisis and is now moving forward. Globally, China is at the forefront of economic recovery and manufacturing, while Europe is trailing behind. In Europe, we’ve observed growth, primarily driven by B2C, while B2B is still recovering and remains below pre-pandemic levels. Don, would you like to share your thoughts on the international segments?

No, Raj, I think that’s helpful and not a lot to add other than the fact that certainly the optimism comes around the continuing rollout of the vaccines on a global basis, as economies and countries and companies begin to recover and open back up, that’s when we expect to see B2B volume recover. I think, Brie mentioned and you expanded, Raj, as well, we’re beginning to see some signs of life in our European business on the B2B side as well. Only get to the data points, but it certainly introduces some optimism about the revenue growth right now is driven by B2C and B2B continues to improve on a sequential basis certainly that’s additive to the European story.

Okay. Thank you, Don. Brie anything else?

No, I think, you’ve covered it.

Thanks. Good evening. Mike, you talked about showing year-on-year margin improvement in the second half on a year-over-year basis. To be fair, the bar’s a little bit low on that. And I was just hoping you could give us a little bit of color around that. Do you think the year-on-year margin expansion accelerates? It was great to see you in the fiscal second quarter for the first time in a long time. But, do you think, as some of the costs subside that were specific to the fiscal second quarter that we might be able to see some acceleration in that year-on-year margin expansion? And just the broader question to Mike, if you could address, the problem for the last several years obviously has been the growth in Ground has been fantastic, but the margins have been impacted negatively as a result of that growth. With pricing initiatives, the yield that you guys are showing, which is incredibly impressive, can we say now that the bottom is it for Ground margins and subsequent quarters should see gains on the back of what we’ve been achieved the last several quarters?

There are quite a few questions in that. To summarize, we have acknowledged that the pandemic has led to additional costs and uncertainties in our short-term forecasts. However, as Henry mentioned, we are very optimistic about the future of our Ground business and the initiatives we've implemented. To provide more detail, we expect to increase our capital expenditures in the Ground business next year. The expansion of facilities, which includes both new automated facilities and the expansion of existing ones, is just one of the strategies we're using to improve Ground margins and profitability. We will also continue to invest in technology to boost asset productivity and collaborate more closely with our customers to optimize the timing and manner of our shipments. While I can't give a specific forecast, I hope to convey the range of initiatives that are coming together to drive growth moving forward.

Yes, good afternoon. I wanted to mention that your Express performance has been very impressive. You're doing a great job seizing various opportunities. Specifically, I was curious about the strength in national air freight rates. Could you provide some insights on the magnitude of that and whether we should be concerned about it potentially being a headwind in the future? Is there a possibility that in the second half of fiscal '22, you might have to adjust for the benefits stemming from the currently high international air freight rates?

Don, you and Raj want to talk about that or…

Yes. Let me kick it off and then Don can answer. I think, the point about when the capacity, supply and demand for us to balance is of course, we have to look at that. We feel that as the demand comes back, the capacity will be in shortfall for quite some time, and our FedEx capacity will be at significant premium. And, as Brie pointed out in our remarks, there is quite a bit of runway ahead of us in this regard. So, let me turn it over to Don for his comments.

Thank you, Raj, and thanks for the question. So, let me frame it from a market perspective, and I appreciate the comments on the Express’ team performance, obviously really proud of what we delivered past the last couple of quarters. When we look at the air freight market, obviously the derivative of supply demand and conventional wisdom and market forecast would suggest that we don’t get back to pre-COVID capacity in the marketplace for somewhere in the range of 18 to 24 months. So, if you believe that to be true and we do, I think there is continued reason to be optimistic about the supply and demand situation as it relates to our business going forward. As Raj mentioned, as the vaccines continue to roll out around the globe and economies begin to recover, they’ll recover, I believe at a faster pace than the capacity from the factors in the market. So, my sense is again, we don’t go back to pre-COVID levels in commercial capacity in the marketplace for 18 to 24 months and the economies hopefully begin to recover prior to that, it creates an opportunity from pricing environment. Brie, I am not sure if you want to add to that?

I think you’ve covered it, Don.

Hey. Good evening. Thanks for taking my question. I guess, this one is for Mike. The question is on cash flows, if you don’t mind. There’s been a significant improvement in operating cash flow through the first six months of this year on a year-over-year basis. It looks like a good portion of that is from a lower payables. Is that related to the payroll tax accrual holiday related to CARES Act, first of all? And then, I guess more broadly, with an increased focus on CapEx discipline now, do you anticipate being sustainably free cash flow positive moving forward, barring something unforeseen from a macro perspective? Thank you.

Jack, the answer to your first question is two big drivers of that. We made a $1 billion contribution to our pension plan in the first half of last year. And then, you are correct, the deferral of the payroll taxes into the CARES Act shows up there. At this point, the benefit from that we’ve deferred just north of $600 million of payroll taxes under the CARES Act. And those will pay back in calendar ‘21 and ‘22. Look, it remains we are fully focused on improving returns and free cash flow. But I don’t want to get into giving you a forecast at this stage of the game. But we’re definitely prioritizing that, as well as improving our capital efficiency.

I was wondering if you could share your long-term thoughts on Ground margin, particularly regarding the increased volume of residential packages that are expected to remain in the system. I’m interested in the initiatives you’re implementing, such as air ground optimization and bringing the postal business in-house. It’s a promising start on the Ground side, and I’d like to know your perspective on the Ground business over the next year or two and the potential direction it could take.

Hey Jordan, this is Henry there. As I said, we expect margin improvement each of the next two quarters year-over-year. I think the important thing here is to think about the transformational initiatives that have been accomplished and the ones that are yet to come. We talked about 7-day year-round 95% of the U.S. population. I’ve spoken on this call before about the great route optimization technology we rolled out and put in the hands of our service providers, the in-sourcing SmartPost volume has allowed us to experience a very real return on these strategic investments. For example, we’ve seen a 22% improvement in stops per hour Q2 year-over-year. The average cost per stop has been reduced by 15% year-over-year. And causing our assets to sweat 7-days a week, once again the insourcing of SmartPost has allowed us to reduce our fixed cost per package by 9% year-over-year in the quarter. And we’ve also seen a material reduction in miles per stop. These are all of the input cost trends you need to see to win in e-commerce. So, I would tell you that from where we sit, FedEx Ground today, we couldn’t be more positive about the future. You want to take the LMO more question Brie?

From an LMO perspective, obviously we’re excited to turn that back on. I think, I covered the percentage of residential that’s already in the network right now. So that remains an upside opportunity. We have gained share consistently over the last 20 years. And we’re very, very optimistic about the future and opportunities. That’s why I continue to share the growth of e-commerce and those numbers, 111 million packages in the market by 2026. There’s some significant room for growth there. So, we’re really excited about the FedEx Ground outlook.

Can I add a couple of things here? As both Henry and Brie mentioned, there are two key areas: improved density and efficiency, which Henry already provided evidence for, and we expect these trends to continue. The second area is the revenue quality that Brie discussed. Looking ahead, we are optimistic about what Ground can achieve with the increased volume we're anticipating.

I want to focus on Ground. Do you believe the 7% yield growth is sustainable? Given that Ground margins are not yet in double digits, do you think there is potential to push those Ground yields even higher? Regarding pricing, do you see a way to achieve double-digit margins for a year? Is it possible to reach low-teens margins for a year in Ground? That seems to be what everyone is trying to understand.

So, we’re going to continue to execute on our revenue quality strategy. We think that there’s been some fundamental shifts in the market. And you saw the beginning of that this quarter with a 20% increase in our SmartPost products and a 10% increase from a yield and the residential business. We believe surcharges will be a part of our pricing strategy moving forward for e-commerce. They are a necessary part. We also are going to continue to work on our product and our customer segment mix. And what do I mean by that? We are leaning into our home delivery product for growth. It is the best value proposition in the market. No one else can do 7-day. And we expect to continue to get a premium. We also expect that that will continue to drive market share from small and medium customers who cannot move to a local operation. And they really do value the national speed advantage that we have. So, yes, I continue to expect a strong yield performance for the FedEx Ground portfolio. And we’re confident that we have started to change some industry trends this year.

Scott, my crystal ball doesn’t go out much more than six months. So, I’ll stand by my statement about the next two quarters. I am highly confident of double-digit margins. I don’t know whether I want to get into a debate with anybody on this call about teams, so.

Hey. Thanks. Maybe a question for Raj on collaboration. Can you offer any metrics on the degree of collaboration between the segments year-over-year? For example, how much Express volume ran through Ground this quarter versus the year ago period?

Overall, we have transitioned more than 10 million packages from Express to Ground, mainly consisting of rural and residential packages due to e-commerce and our ability to offer lower rates. This shift includes over 10 million packages now in the Ground system. Additionally, FedEx Freight has significantly supported FedEx Ground, driving 40 million miles, which is an 80% increase year-over-year. FedEx Freight handled 1.5 million packages, representing more than a 435% increase. There are many such metrics, but the collaboration is very strong, and we are ensuring the right packages are placed in the right networks at the right costs.

Thanks. What inning would you say we’re in?

Did you say what inning?

Raj plays cricket.

There are innings in cricket too. But yes, no, we are just getting started, if that’s what you mean.

Thank you. I just want to see if you could give us a little bit more clarity on the increase in Ground CapEx in fiscal ‘22. I mean, I guess, what’s the magnitude of the uptick in spending? And more importantly, I think, you previously talked about not needing to add incremental major pump capacity, given that the growth over the next several years would likely come in shorter than past, and therefore, you could push volumes out to the second tier and satellite facilities and really start to leverage the investments that you’ve made in the stores. So, is that still the right way to think about it, or what’s sort of a nature of the increase in CapEx? So, just wanted to understand any sort of additional details to sort of get sort of clarification on that. Thank you.

Hey Allison, it’s Mike. So, I don’t have a specific number to give you on that as we are, as I said, in the midst of formulating our plans and putting it together for FY22. But, unquestionably, the sustainability and acceleration of the e-commerce business that we have seen that everybody has highlighted is here to stay. And Brie spoke of this tremendous shift in the mix of residential business and with not much advanced notice, yet Ground has quickly adapted, adjusted and was able to increase margins. So, that’s a testament to the execution of the team on all fronts, the commercial teams, the operational teams. So, that volume is going to keep coming. So, it’s essential that we do invest in certain assets going forward, but it’s not going to be the same nature and configuration as you might historically have considered it. So, I mentioned, it’s facilities, it’s technology, it’s how we work with customers. But I’ll let Henry elaborate a little bit more on just kind of the nature of the facilities and how that works, so you have a better sense of it.

Yes. Thanks, Mike. Allison, I think the way you should think about this is we’re going to invest much more heavily on the edge of our business, which is the last mile space. So, if you think about this, our focus is going to be on much smaller automated satellites and stations, regional sortation facilities, which, if you’re not aware, sort about 12,000 to 15,000 packages an hour. They tend to be inbound only so that we can process direct loaded volume from large retailers. They are much less costly to build and operate because what we do is we go in and we modify an existing building. And we are able to get these up much quicker. In fact, the time to get them up and running is measured in months instead of years, like some of the bigger construction projects we’ve had. They’re solely designed for the sortation of regional packages. And I think when you think about regional, you should think about overnight mainly. And one of the great advantages they have is that they can serve as a relief valve for spillover sortation at peak. There is a lot of other levers we can pull here. The ideal situation for us is to be able to load direct vans, not have to go through a destination facility. We’re investing heavily in technology tools that will give us the ability to do that. There’s a lot of things we do, particularly this time of year at peak with mobile docs and annexes and the ability to waive dispatch and run dual preloads in facilities that allow us to dual-use facilities when volume is at the level it is now that don’t require us to invest in the traditional brick and mortar. Now, all that being said, we’re always going to have brick and mortar in our business, but many of the transformational initiatives I’ve talked about are intended to give us better real-time information about what’s coming so we can make decisions that reduce our input costs. The main area would be re-handles so that we can bypass the brick and mortar facility altogether and load right to a vehicle that’s going to go deliver those packages in the neighborhood. So, I hope that answers your question.

And Allison, that’s density yet again. You’ve heard us say it numerous times, but that is density and how we manage that yet again.

Yes. Thank you. Good evening. Henry, could you discuss the peak season costs and how they compared to expectations? It seems you had to make some adjustments due to recent developments. It appears you are prepared to manage the remainder of the peak season and any returns following that. Additionally, could you provide an update on the potential need to shift some customers to the weekend and possibly incentivize changes in their behavior? I assume that might not be necessary anymore, but I would appreciate any updates on that.

I’ll start with the first part and then let Brie take the second. Regarding peak, we haven't discussed that in detail yet. I want to express how proud I am of the Ground team and their accomplishments this year, which has been extraordinary in many ways. This year’s peak has been remarkable. The investments, resources, and capacity enhancements have contributed to one of our best peak seasons, despite COVID and other challenges. On average, FedEx Ground is delivering 25% to 30% of the volume a day early, and packages are spending about 2.4 days in transit, which is faster than last year given the volume and challenges we faced. This year, cost issues stemmed from timing and uncertainties. The construction of our facilities was delayed since governments were shut down for two months, affecting our permitting. Even though our property and engineering teams worked hard to meet deadlines, the facilities came online later than usual. Regarding resources, especially handlers, hiring new staff at our pace has impacted efficiency. It takes time for them to learn their roles, with a ramp-up period of 2 to 4 weeks, meaning many handlers aren’t as productive as they could be. Our facilities aren't designed for social distancing, and out of caution, we've structured staffing to ensure safety, which unintentionally reduced throughput compared to pre-COVID times. Additionally, we anticipated challenges in recruiting drivers and recognized early on that vehicles were in short supply due to automotive manufacturing shutdowns. This situation required us to arrange rental vehicles much earlier and with longer commitments than usual, leading to adjustments in settlement to alleviate costs for our service providers. Lastly, our independent service providers have done an incredible job this peak season. They’ve consistently stepped up, and their ability to make quick decisions based on local conditions and data provided about deliveries is unprecedented and truly sets us apart in the industry.

And to answer the second half of your question, I think, Jill Brannon and her sales team have just done an incredible job leveraging our weekend capacity. The incentive is, you use the weekend or you lose the capacity. And that has worked. Do we have opportunity? Yes, I believe we have incremental opportunity to further improve the productivity and density on the weekend. But again, we have created a peak capacity strategy that does require customers to pulse their volume more equally throughout the week. And our best largest customers are doing just that with us. They’ve been great partners and I think they’ll continue to see us do a good job of out of peak moving forward.

Good morning. To follow up on that question, have you noticed a significant increase in volumes in November? It seems like you're achieving some operational balance in December concerning the peak. Can you provide any additional details on that?

Sure. We really were hoping to change shopping behavior, and we really didn’t see that to be completely honest. We have seen, as a result, I think there’s far more awareness from consumers of the unprecedented year we’re having. What we did see is the ground team and the sales team did such a great job educating the merchant and the customer that we saw a lot better planning. And as a result, we saw volume, and we are seeing volume earlier in the Express network. So, it was successful and that we were able to move some of the higher value e-commerce into the Express network. And we have been successful in smoothing day of week within Henry’s network. We were not successful in getting all consumers to shop before Cyber weekend. So, that remains a goal, let’s just say.

Hey, good afternoon. Brie, I wanted to follow up on that topic around sort of collaboration, right? You’re reporting some pretty healthy rate increases on the B2C side, 20% for market, 10% for the residential. How is the discussion going with retailers at this stage? Are they accepting this as take it or leave it, or how are they thinking about your product in the context of pretty significant rate increases? And as you think about the negotiations with them going forward, are they being more willing to participate with you on things like your process, day of week injection, that kind of stuff that will help you kind of build a deeper relationship on the customer side?

In general, the conversations have gone very well. The largest and most successful retailers in the U.S. understand how crucial FedEx Logistics is to their growth strategy. We’ve experienced significant success. I want to clarify that SmartPost is also about trading out, which is a key part of the strategy. Customers who recognize the value we offer have been excellent partners, allowing us to progress. For those who do not appreciate our speed and unique value proposition, our growth numbers show that many customers do see the value in that. It's not a one-size-fits-all approach. Overall, I would say the team has performed admirably, and by January, we expect a packed schedule as Jill prepares for peak planning for next year. This year has set new precedents for many future years.

Thank you for your participation in FedEx Corporation’s second quarter earnings conference call. Feel free to call anyone on the Investor Relations team if you have additional questions about FedEx. Thank you very much. Bye.