Gartner Inc (IT) — Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Gartner's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. I'm David Cohen, SVP of Investor Relations. After comments by Gene Hall, Gartner's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Craig Safian, Gartner's Financial Officer, there will be a question-and-answer session. Please note that today's conference call is being recorded. This call will include a discussion of third quarter 2024 financial results and Gartner's outlook for 2024 as disclosed in today's earnings release and earnings supplement, both posted to our website, investor.gartner.com. On the call, unless stated otherwise, all references to EBITDA are for adjusted EBITDA, with the adjustments as described in our earnings release and supplement. Our contract values and associated growth rates we discuss are based on 2024 foreign exchange rates. All growth rates in Gene's comments are FX neutral, unless stated otherwise. All references to share counts are for fully diluted weighted average share counts, unless stated otherwise. Reconciliations for all non-GAAP numbers we use are available in the Investor Relations section of the gartner.com website. As set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, certain statements made on this call may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can vary materially from actual results and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those contained in the company's 2023 annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q as well as in other filings with the SEC. I encourage all of you to review the risk factors listed in these documents. Now I will turn the call over to Gartner's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Gene Hall.

Good morning, and thanks for joining us today. Gartner continues to remain resilient in a complex environment. In Q3, contract value grew high single digits. Financial results for the third quarter were ahead of expectations. We raised our 2024 guidance for revenue, EBITDA, EPS, and free cash flow. Leaders in every enterprise continue to face more simultaneous disruptions than ever before. Gartner is the best source for actionable objective insight to drive smart decisions and stronger performance on an organization's mission-critical priorities. A powerful way to experience our research insights is to attend a Gartner Conference. At the start of every conference, our analysts deliver a thought-provoking keynote on a critically important topic. I recently attended Gartner's IT Symposium Expo in Orlando, Florida. In the opening keynote, our analysts inspired thousands of CIOs and IT executives. They showed these leaders how to implement AI in the right places at the right pace for their environments. The keynote received among the highest ratings ever. Gartner delivers unparalleled value at the intersection of business and technology. We help our clients manage risk, save time, save money, and build confidence. We service clients through a wide range of topics, including cybersecurity, strategic workforce planning, cost optimization, and leveraging generative AI across multiple disciplines, including procurement, brand management, and sales enablement. Research continues to be our largest and most profitable segment. Our research business supports leaders across all major enterprise functions in every industry and every geography, and our market opportunity is vast. Within our research business, contract value with enterprise function leaders grew 9%. And contract value with tech vendor clients continued the improvement we saw last quarter. We serve executives and their teams through distinct sales channels. Global Technology Sales (GTS) serves leaders and their teams within IT. Contract value grew 6%, and GTS new business growth was 8%. Global Business Sales (GBS) serves leaders and their teams beyond IT, including HR, supply chain, finance, marketing, legal, sales, and more. GBS new business growth was 10%, and contract value grew 12%. Gartner Conferences deliver extraordinarily valuable insights to an engaged and qualified audience. Revenue grew 30% in the third quarter, and we're off to a great start in Q4. Gartner Consulting is an extension of Gartner Research. Consulting helps clients execute their most strategic initiatives through deeper project-based work. Consulting is an important complement to our IT research business. Labor-based consulting revenue grew 2%. Contract optimization revenue met our expectations. Our road to success has been driven by relentless execution of Gartner best practices. We continuously improve and innovate across our business. I'll share a few examples. First, we deployed a state-of-the-art CRM system across most of our business, giving our teams greater visibility to better serve our clients. We have also added innovations to our phased approach to sales training, positively impacting sales productivity for new hires. One way we capture our large untapped market opportunity is by growing sales headcount. We accelerated hiring in the second half of 2024 and expect to continue growing our sales force into 2025 and beyond. Another example of improvement is with new salespeople. We're growing and refining our training program that allows early career salespeople to gain valuable experience before taking on direct sales roles. We're also leveraging AI internally. We've built prototypes that our associates are using to match our vast library of powerful insights to each client situation. These are just a few examples. Developing and executing best practices consistently is a core part of our strategy. In closing, Gartner delivered financial results ahead of expectations. We delivered 9% contract value growth with enterprise function leaders. Tech vendor contract value growth has turned the corner and continues to accelerate. Our client value proposition and addressable market opportunity position us to drive long-term sustained double-digit revenue growth. We'll continue to create value for our shareholders by providing actionable objective insight to our clients, efficiently investing for future growth, and returning capital to our shareholders through our share repurchase program. We expect to deliver modest margin expansion over time and will continue to generate significant free cash flow well in excess of net income. All of this and more positions us to continue our sustained track record of success well into the future. With that, I'll hand the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Craig Safian.

Thank you, Gene, and good morning. Third quarter contract value grew 7% year-over-year, another good performance in a still complex environment. Third quarter revenue, EBITDA, and EPS all came in ahead of our expectations. We are updating our guidance based on the Q3 results and an improved outlook for the fourth quarter. During the third quarter, we received $300 million, before taxes, related to conference cancellation insurance for the conferences affected by the pandemic. We have repurchased more than $630 million of stock through September and remain eager to repurchase shares opportunistically. Third quarter revenue was $1.5 billion, up 5% year-over-year as reported and 6% FX neutral. In addition, total contribution margin was 68%, consistent with last year. EBITDA was $340 million, up 2% as reported and 3% FX neutral versus the third quarter of 2023. Adjusted EPS was $2.50 compared with $2.56 in Q3 of last year, and free cash flow, including the insurance-related proceeds, was $565 million. Research revenue in the third quarter grew 5% year-over-year as reported and FX neutral. Subscription revenue grew 7% FX neutral. Nonsubscription research revenue was in line with our expectations. The third quarter research contribution margin was 74%, consistent with last year. Contract value was $5 billion at the end of the third quarter, up 7% versus the prior year and up about $104 million from the second quarter. Contract value from enterprise function leaders across GTS and GBS grew 9%. Contract value and growth are FX neutral. Contract value growth was broad-based across practices, industry sectors, company sizes, and geographic regions. Tech vendor contract value has turned a corner with strong new business and continued contract value acceleration in Q3. Across our combined practices, half of the industry sectors grew at double-digit or high single-digit rates, led by the energy, healthcare, and manufacturing sectors. Contract value grew at high single-digit rates across all enterprise sizes except small, which grew low single digits and has the largest tech vendor mix. We also drove double-digit or high single-digit growth in most of our top 10 countries. Global Technology Sales contract value was $3.9 billion at the end of the third quarter, up 6% versus the prior year. GTS enterprise leader contract value increased high single digits. Tech vendor contract value growth improved from Q2, showing the positive shift which began last quarter continued. GTS contract value increased by $67 million from the second quarter, while retention for GTS was 101% for the quarter, similar to Q2. Enterprise leader wallet retention was consistent with historical levels. GTS new business was up 8% compared to last year. GBS quota-bearing headcount was up 1% year-over-year. We added more than 90 sellers in the quarter, the largest sequential increase since Q4 of 2022. This positions us to deliver mid-single-digit quota-bearing headcount growth for GTS by the end of the year. Our regular full set of GTS metrics can be found in our earnings supplement. Global Business Sales contract value was $1.2 billion at the end of the third quarter, up 12% year-over-year. All of our GBS practices grew at double-digit rates except marketing and sales, which grew mid-single digits. Growth was led by the finance, legal, and supply chain practices. GBS contract value increased $37 million from the second quarter. While retention for GBS was 106% for the quarter, which compares to 108% in the prior year, GBS new business was up 10% compared to last year. GBS quota-bearing headcount was up 8% year-over-year, and we continue to target high single-digit growth for 2024. Our regular full set of GBS metrics can be found in our earnings supplement. Conferences revenue for the third quarter was $76 million, increasing 32% as reported and 30% FX neutral compared to Q3 of 2023. Contribution margin was 40%, consistent with typical Q3 seasonality. We held 10 destination conferences in Q3. Consulting revenue for the third quarter was $128 million compared with $133 million in the year-ago period. Consulting contribution margin was 33% in the third quarter. Labor-based revenue was $101 million, up 2% versus Q3 of last year as reported and FX neutral. Backlog at September 30 was $218 million, increasing 21% year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis with continued booking strength. In contract optimization, we delivered $26 million of revenue in the quarter, facing a very tough comparison from Q3 of last year. Our contract optimization revenue is highly variable. Consolidated cost of services increased 5% year-over-year in the third quarter as reported and FX neutral. The biggest driver of the increase was higher compensation costs. SG&A increased 8% year-over-year in the third quarter as reported and on an FX-neutral basis, largely due to headcount growth contributing to higher compensation costs. EBITDA for the third quarter was $340 million, up 2% from last year as reported and up 3% FX neutral. Our performance in Q3 was bolstered by revenue upside, effective expense management, and a prudent approach to guidance. Depreciation in the quarter of $29 million was up 18% compared to 2023. Net interest expense, excluding deferred financing costs in the quarter, was $17 million, favorable by $4 million versus the third quarter of 2023 due to higher interest income on our cash balances. Our modest floating-rate debt is fully hedged through the third quarter of 2025. The Q3 adjusted tax rate, which we use for calculating adjusted net income, was 26% for the quarter, compared to last year's rate of 22%. The tax rate for the items used to adjust net income was 17% for the quarter. Adjusted EPS in Q3 was $2.50 compared with $2.56 last year. We had 78 million shares outstanding in the third quarter, an improvement of close to 1.6 million shares or about 2% year-over-year. We exited the third quarter with about 78 million shares on an unweighted basis. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $591 million compared with $331 million in Q3 of 2023, which includes $300 million of insurance-related proceeds received during the quarter. We expect to pay the associated taxes during Q4. CapEx for the quarter was $26 million, in line with our expectations. Free cash flow for the quarter was $565 million, including the insurance-related proceeds. Free cash flow on a rolling 4-quarter basis was 119% of GAAP net income. Excluding the insurance-related proceeds, free cash flow was 16% of revenue and 63% of EBITDA. Our free cash flow conversion is generally higher when contract value growth is accelerating. At the end of the third quarter, we had about $1.8 billion of cash. Our September 30 debt balance was approximately $2.5 billion, with a reported gross debt to trailing 12-month EBITDA ratio of under 2x. Our expected free cash flow generation, available revolver, and excess cash on the balance sheet provide ample liquidity to support our capital allocation strategy of disciplined share repurchases and strategic tuck-in M&A. Our balance sheet is very strong with $2.5 billion of liquidity, low levels of leverage, and effectively fixed interest rates. We repurchased $69 million of stock during the third quarter. As of the end of Q3, our share repurchase authorization exceeds $1 billion. Continued share repurchases will shrink our capital base, which over time will be accretive to earnings per share and combined with growing profits will also deliver increasing returns on invested capital. We are updating our full-year guidance to reflect recent performance and trends. We increased the outlook for all three segments: Research, Conferences, and Consulting. Our EBITDA guidance reflects Q3 upside and an increased outlook for Q4. Approximately one-third of our revenue and operating expenses are denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Based on recent foreign exchange rates, we expect currency to provide a modest benefit in Q4. Our updated 2024 guidance is as follows: we expect research revenue of at least $5.11 billion, which is FX-neutral growth of about 5%, reflecting subscription research revenue growth of about 7%. We expect Conferences revenue of at least $580 million, which translates to FX-neutral growth of about 15%. We expect Consulting revenue of at least $535 million, reflecting a growth of about 5% FX-neutral. The result is an outlook for consolidated revenue of at least $6.225 billion, representing FX-neutral growth of 6%. We now expect full-year EBITDA of at least $1.52 billion, an increase of $60 million from our prior guidance. We expect 2024 adjusted EPS of at least $11.75. For 2024, we anticipate free cash flow of at least $1.35 billion. This increase from prior guidance reflects improved operating performance; the insurance-related proceeds received in August, net of estimated taxes; and a nonrecurring payment related to our ongoing real estate planning. The guidance reflects a conversion from GAAP net income of 126%. Our guidance is based on 78 million fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding, reflecting the repurchases made through the end of the third quarter. Our financial results through September have surpassed our plan despite ongoing global macro uncertainty. Contract value grew high single digits in the quarter, and we believe Q1 of 2024 was the bottom for contract value growth in this cycle. We repurchased more than $630 million of stock year-to-date through September and remain eager to return excess capital to our shareholders, while maintaining a price-sensitive, opportunistic, and disciplined approach. Looking ahead to the medium term, our financial model and expectations remain unchanged. With 12% to 16% research contract value growth, we aim to deliver double-digit revenue growth. With gross margin expansion, sales costs growing in line with contract value growth, and G&A leverage, we will deliver modest EBITDA margin expansion over time. We can grow free cash flow at least as fast as EBITDA due to our modest CapEx needs and the benefits of clients paying us upfront. We'll continue to allocate our capital towards share repurchases, which will decrease the share count over time, and towards strategic value-enhancing tuck-in M&A. With that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator, and we'll be happy to take your questions.

Can you just comment on GTS enterprise leader, I guess, end market conditions, or pipeline? Just trying to triangulate from what you're giving us on tech vendor getting better as well as the 9% enterprise function with GBS growing 11.6%. It looks like it might have decelerated a little bit. So just any help on pipeline and anything beyond macro sales capacity, et cetera.

Jeff, it's Gene. So in terms of pipeline, we have a robust pipeline for GTS enterprise leaders. We have a very strong value proposition. We're addressing the issues that people really care about. Our pipeline is quite strong. Occasionally, there is some reconfiguration within our sales force, and results in a specific quarter are influenced by the SKU of renewals for that quarter and other factors. However, we are contracted with where we expected. Again, we have a great pipeline for GTS users.

Okay. And then on expenses, is 2024 expected to be a good baseline to expand modestly from over time for adjusted EBITDA margins? Or could there be, I guess, more of a headwind as growth investment gets fully reinstated with you reaccelerating sales headcount?

I think a couple of thoughts there. First, '24 is a relatively good baseline from an operating expense perspective moving forward. The only concern I would highlight is the growth in both GTS and GBS headcount that we're building into 2024 has been back-loaded. We'll pay for that from a full year perspective next year. As Gene mentioned in his prepared remarks, we intend to continue to grow our sales force to go after that significant untapped market opportunity into the future. Therefore, '24 serves as a solid baseline, with the back-end loading of our GTS and GBS headcount in mind. As we move into 2025, we want to ensure continued investment in GTS and GBS headcount to drive strong retention rates and sustained top-line growth.

At this point in the year, you're probably talking to many clients about renewals. I'd like to hear anything interesting that you're getting from them about their '25 budgets and what your expectations are for the selling environment next year?

Toni, we have renewals all year long. However, if I look at what's currently happening with our clients' '25 budgets, they are expecting a better year in '25 than in '24 right now. If that proceeds as anticipated, it would be beneficial for all of us. Currently, that's the feedback we are receiving—clients expecting '25 to be better than '24.

Great. I hoped you could give us an update on your sales force tenure. I know you've been working on various initiatives to retain and attract the best salespeople. I wanted to hear how that's going and your retention relative to history? Are you where you want to be regarding sales headcount? It's a continuous process, but any update would be beneficial.

Yes. We have an excellent value proposition for prospective salespeople and other associates at Gartner. When we hire, we have around 200 applicants for every job, allowing us to select the best talent. Our turnover rate is very low, which is optimal. If it were any lower, it might indicate a lack of sufficient performance management. In terms of tenure, it has slowly been increasing over time. As Craig mentioned earlier, we have accelerated hiring, adding newer members to the sales force, but our overall tenure continues to rise.

This is George Tong with Goldman. With respect to tech vendor contract value, you mentioned that it has turned the corner and continues to accelerate. Can you elaborate on where the growth currently is and when you would expect the contract value growth with tech vendors to improve notably given prevailing trends?

George, regarding tech vendor growth, our new business has rebounded nicely. However, we still face challenges with particularly small tech vendors who are financially constrained and may renew their contracts at lower rates. Overall, our new business for tech vendors is showing strong performance, and sales, both to existing clients and new logos, have rebounded nicely, aligning more closely with historical levels.

Got it. That's helpful. Regarding the consulting business, you mentioned the contract optimization piece has tough comparisons and growth can be variable. Can you discuss the trends in this business and what you expect to be key drivers of performance moving forward?

In the consulting business, we provide clients with a strong value proposition, helping them negotiate better deals on significant contracts. Our expertise in this area is well established. However, this business can be lumpy since large deals can vary significantly in timing and recognition. The growth of the consulting business aligns with our business fundamentals, and while it may fluctuate quarter-to-quarter, it represents great value for our clients.

And George, the reported growth rate in Q3 of last year was 98%, so it indeed presents a challenging comparison. We expect this business to grow in line with our medium-term objectives but recognize variability quarter to quarter. It's a robust business that delivers strong value to our clients.

This is Tom Rush on for Angie Nicolas. I wanted to focus on new business growth in the quarter across GTS and GBS. Could you unpack the underlying drivers there?

Yes. As we mentioned, GBS new business growth was 10% year-over-year, reflecting solid double-digit growth with broad-based performance across all GBS practices. On the GTS side, year-over-year new business growth was 8%, also showing robust growth performance. The strength of our value proposition for research offerings and the effectiveness of our sales teams to generate opportunities contribute to this consistent growth.

For my follow-up, I wanted to delve into client spending more broadly in the quarter. How did it trend relative to your expectations? Any color you can add on outlook for Q4?

I wouldn't say we observed any significant changes in client spending or end-market conditions. The environment remains complex and dynamic, and we are addressing those challenges. We are focused on delivering value and improving operational performance for the executives we support. Overall, we did not see notable deviations from our expectations.

Last quarter, you suggested that Q1 CV would be the bottom, but that the path of recovery may be uneven. What did you see that caused you to make that comment? As we stand here in Q3, what do you think about the pace going into Q4 regarding CV?

Josh, our contract value varies each quarter based on specific renewals that arise. Certain quarters may have more renewals than others, influencing the variability we see. The overall demand for our services remains strong, with many clients focused on critical issues like cybersecurity, AI integration, and cost optimization. We're seeing both strength in our value proposition and client interest, despite the rocky macroeconomic situation.

Just to provide some context, with a roughly $5 billion base, a $3.5 million change in a quarter could represent a growth change of around 10 basis points. Recognizing the complexity and dynamism of the environment, that variability in deals can lead to uneven growth. Potential swings as small as $3.5 million can have a notable impact.

That's understandable. Regarding GBS CV, while it's healthy, it has declined sequentially. Can you provide insights on this trajectory or any factors influencing it?

In terms of GBS CV, there are two main groups to consider: new products we've launched, referred to as GxL, and the legacy portfolio from CEB. Our new products are performing well, above the anticipated 12% to 16% growth range. However, the deceleration primarily stems from some legacy products that are underperforming due to the economic environment. We will continue managing the legacy products while focusing on maximizing growth from our new business efforts.

You mentioned helping clients implement AI effectively. Historically, you've indicated that AI wasn't a major driver of CV growth. Do you think now, with further progress in AI, it could contribute more significantly to overall new business as we look towards '25 and just beyond?

This is a great question. Our clients look to us for assistance on their most pressing issues. As AI has become increasingly essential, it is on our clients' agendas alongside critical areas such as cybersecurity and cost optimization, which are prevalent across various business functions. While AI may not drive massive shifts in demand overnight, it continues to be increasingly important on the margin, but our clients have always needed our guidance on pertinent topics.

That is helpful. As we consider revenues into 2025, I know Q4 CV will be a key factor. However, do you have any early thoughts on 2025 expectations, specifically concerning research and nonsubscription revenue, which recently saw declines? Is there a growth expectation for that segment?

As per our normal practices, we'll provide a full view on 2025 guidance in February. The primary driver for 2025 revenue will be where CV growth and performance concludes in 2024. We still have much to navigate in Q4, which will significantly shape our expectations for 2025. Our conviction remains strong regarding our medium-term goals of regaining growth in GTS and GBS segments.

Craig, could you remind us how significant Q4 is in terms of renewals and how many sales typically happen in that quarter?

Historically, we generate around half of our Net Contract Value Increment (NCVI) in Q4, which is approximately 50% of our annual NCVI and about 40% of our new business usually occurs in this quarter. We manage renewals effectively and write many multi-year deals to mitigate any quarter-specific risks, but those are general estimates.

That's helpful. Gene, regarding the quota-bearing headcount strategy, you've mentioned higher budget expectations from clients and a robust pipeline. Historically, you've emphasized aggressive hiring even in times of high cost, so why is the strategy set for mid-single digits by year's end rather than a larger number to prepare for growth?

The reason our hiring plans are cautious is that we are strategically aligning our operational capabilities with the talent we can effectively onboard and develop. This approach enables us to scale effectively rather than overextending ourselves, which could jeopardize the overall development and success of new hires. It makes sense to accelerate hiring gradually in light of the economic landscape.

Gene, following up on the last question, can you provide insight into the potential long-term impact of your sales force structure on productivity and client management? Has AI influenced those metrics and do you have any insights as you look further into the future?

As I mentioned earlier, we utilize promising AI prototypes which could positively impact long-term productivity. However, it is premature to quantify that impact specifically. While we anticipate modest improvements over time, factors like training and support from AI may create advantageous shifts in efficiencies. It won't likely result in drastic improvements, but it can enhance productivity modestly.

Regarding GBS, you noted some strength in areas like finance and legal, while marketing and sales seem to face more challenges. Can you provide additional context on those dynamics? Is that tied to broader client demand trends and their spending behavior?

In marketing and sales, we see a couple of underlying issues. Firstly, we have a greater exposure to tech, and as the economy fluctuates, marketing spending tightens, impacting our CV. Additionally, there is an increase in legacy CV in the marketing and sales segments, contributing to underperformance. Overall, while there are challenges, the performance remains solid across GBS.

Could we get some insights into the renewal process regarding pricing? What types of price increases have you successfully implemented, and what should we expect for next year?

From a renewal standpoint and pricing strategy, our primary focus has been to ensure we offset projected wage inflation with our price increases. The majority of our price adjustments occur on November 1 each year. We implemented a price increase of just under 4% this year to align with our wage inflation expectations for 2025. Historically, we've typically raised prices between 3% and 4% for over 15 years, with some exceptions based on inflation fluctuating higher or lower than normal.

That's very helpful. I wanted to shift gears to consulting, where you've seen a decrease in gross margins year-over-year. Is this related to the mix shift away from the significant contract optimization quarter last year, or are there other concerns we should be aware of?

The primary factor for the decline you’ve observed, Jeff, is indeed due to last year’s exceptional performance in that area. We enjoyed strong contract optimization activity, which set a high standard, making this year's figures appear less favorable despite a strong performance this quarter.

I'm curious about your expectations for non-subscription revenue this year. Last quarter, you mentioned $305 million, and there were comments that this would hold. Is that still the case? This suggests a substantial decline in Q4, but comparisons become easier. How do you anticipate moving forward?

Yes, we still expect approximately $305 million for the non-subscription segment in 2024, which remains unchanged from our previous guidance. While the mathematics implies a notable year-over-year decrease, we delivered in alignment with our expectations in Q3. Thus, the full-year expectation remains consistent.

Understood. Can you anticipate a continued decline into next year? Also, on the ramp-up time for your sales force, how long does it typically take for new hires to become productive?

Unfortunately, we can't dive into 2025 expectations just yet, as we'll share guidance in February. However, onboarding new quota-bearing headcount generally takes about three years to reach full productivity. We're focused on enhancing that productivity timeline, so newer hires maximize their productive capabilities more quickly through ongoing training and support.

To add to that, the three-year ramp-up timeframe for salespeople is our standard. We strive to optimally enhance productivity, but it's an ongoing process. We’re inculcating best practices and utilizing tools to ensure they achieve their potential sooner. Maintaining a continuous engagement and support trajectory is our focus.

Here are the key takeaways from today’s call: Gartner delivered financial results ahead of expectations with 9% contract value growth among enterprise function leaders. Tech vendor contract value growth has significantly improved and continues to gain momentum. We are well-positioned for sustainable double-digit revenue growth in the long term, driven by our compelling client value proposition and large addressable market. We will persist in creating value for our shareholders by offering actionable insights to our clients, by investing wisely for future growth and by returning capital through our share repurchase program. Thank you for joining us today, and we look forward to updating you again next quarter.