JCI Fair Value Estimate
$102.0629.3% overvalued
Blended fair value estimate based on DCF, Graham Number, and earnings-based models.
Johnson Controls International plc
Exchange: NYSESector: Basic MaterialsIndustry: Building Products & Equipment
Johnson Controls, a global technology leader in energy efficiency, decarbonization, thermal management and mission-critical performance, helps customers use energy more productively, reduce carbon emissions, and operate with the precision and resilience required in rapidly expanding industries such as data centers, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, and higher education. For more than 140 years, Johnson Controls has delivered performance where it really matters. Backed by advanced technology, lifecycle services and an industry-leading field organization, we elevate customer performance, turn goals into real-world results and help move society forward.
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Free cash flow has been growing at 7.7% annually.
Current Price
$144.40
-0.47%GoodMoat Value
$102.06
29.3% overvaluedProfile
Valuation (TTM)
Market Cap$88.25B
P/E25.99
EV$90.60B
P/B6.83
Shares Out611.14M
P/Sales3.68
Revenue$23.97B
EV/EBITDA19.98
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) Valuation
GoodMoat Analysis
Johnson Controls International is unfavourable from a value investing perspective, trading at a significant premium to its estimated intrinsic value. The current price offers no margin of safety and the stock appears expensive relative to its growth and cash flow profile.
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The valuation assessment reveals a significant overvaluation relative to the GoodMoat framework's fair value estimate. The current price of $137.48 is 35% above the GoodMoat Target of $102.06. This results in a negative margin of safety, placing it firmly in the 'Unfavourable' band per Section 4's DCF guidelines, which require a margin of safety of at least 20% to be considered favourable. The forward P/E of 24.7x appears elevated for a company with 6.8% YoY revenue growth, suggesting the market is pricing in more robust future performance than current fundamentals indicate. The low Free Cash Flow Yield of 1.2% (implying a P/FCF multiple of ~83x) is a particular concern, as it signals investors are paying a very high price for the cash the business generates. While the ROE of 26.3% is strong, the combination of high valuation multiples, low cash flow yield, and a price far above the estimated intrinsic value creates an unattractive risk/reward profile for a value investor seeking a margin of safety. Analysis based on data as of 2024-05-15.
JCI Valuation Metrics
FCF$1.00B
FCF Growth Rate7.67%
EPS Growth (CAGR)-8.68%
WACC10.00%
Fair Value Models
Graham Number, PEG-based, and Earnings-based models
View Fair Value →JCI Valuation & Fair Value Analysis
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) valuation analysis using multiple fair value methodologies. GoodMoat calculates a blended fair value target using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, the Graham Number, and earnings-based valuation models.
The GoodMoat Fair Value target for Johnson Controls International plc is $102.06. The current stock price is $144.40, suggesting the stock is 41.5% overvalued.
The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 25.99. Price-to-book ratio is 6.83. Price-to-sales ratio is 3.68. Enterprise value to EBITDA is 19.98. PEG ratio is 0.71.
GoodMoat's valuation models include the Graham Number (based on EPS and book value), an earnings-based model (discounted future EPS), and a PEG-adjusted valuation. The three models are averaged to produce a blended fair value estimate. Use these tools alongside the DCF calculator and reverse DCF to form a comprehensive view of Johnson Controls International plc's intrinsic value.