KLA Corp (KLAC) — Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Thank you, and welcome to KLA's fiscal Q3 2022 quarterly earnings call to discuss the results of the March quarter and the outlook for the June quarter. Joining me today is Rick Wallace, our Chief Executive Officer; and Bren Higgins, our Chief Financial Officer. During this call, we will discuss the results released today after the market close. You can find the press release, shareholder letter, slide deck and infographic, all on our KLA IR website. Today's discussion is presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. And whenever references are made to full-year business performance, they are on a calendar year basis. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results are in the earnings materials posted on our website. Our IR website also contains future investor events as well as presentations, corporate governance information and links to our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report and quarterly reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q. I would also like to take this opportunity to remind investors and analysts to sign up for our June 16 Investor Day taking place in New York. If you didn't receive an e-mail invitation, please reach out to the KLA IR team, and we will get you one. Our comments today are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the Risk Factors disclosure in our SEC filings. Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on the call today, are also subject to those risks. And KLA cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements. I'd like to now turn the call over to our CEO, Rick Wallace. Rick?

Thanks, Kevin. Before getting into KLA's results in more detail, I want to acknowledge and thank the global KLA team. Their perseverance and drive to be better remains at the center of our consistent execution and outperformance. You have remained focused despite challenging macro and supply chain conditions as our high-performing teams drove KLA's indispensability to customers, resulting in additional process control market share growth for the recently ended year. KLA's March quarter results demonstrate strong execution across multiple areas of our business in a persistently challenging supply chain environment, delivering revenue, GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per share above the midpoint of the guidance ranges for the quarter. We once again displayed strong execution across multiple areas of our business. Our focus on consistently meeting commitments and delivering on our long-term strategic objectives and financial targets is the hallmark for which KLA is known and the standard by which we measure our success. Customer demand across major product groups continues to build as secular trends drive broad-based growth across a range of markets and applications served by the semiconductor industry. This robust demand has been putting pressure on the industry's ability to supply semiconductors. Simultaneously, our leading-edge customers are increasing their strategic CapEx investment to improve their competitive positioning while addressing growth in markets that demand new leading-edge semiconductor capabilities. Against this rising demand backdrop, KLA has remained focused on responding to evolving customer needs and navigating supply chain challenges. Very important that KLA continues to operate with purpose and precision so we can create value for our customers, partners and shareholders by outperforming expectations. Our talented global teams both run and improve the KLA operating model and use it as a critical guide to rise to the challenges and opportunities of the evolving marketplace. As the market leader in process control, one of the fastest-growing segments of the overall WFE market, KLA remains in a position of strength when we look at the industry demand landscape. The semiconductor industry has evolved to be more significantly strategic and has an increasingly less cyclical end-market mix, with many fundamental drivers advancing the critical nature of semiconductors throughout the global economy. Factors such as the continuing advancement of technology at the leading edge, increasing investment in legacy nodes, and innovation and growth of new enabling technologies such as advanced packaging, are fueling long-term growth for the semiconductor industry and for equipment and capabilities that make it possible. Despite persistent supply challenges and macro headwinds, our outlook for the WFE industry this year remains intact, albeit with an expectation for a stronger second half than anticipated in January. We expect WFE demand to top $100 billion this calendar year, making it the third consecutive year of double-digit growth. KLA's expected growth in calendar 2022 will mark the seventh consecutive year of growth. This sustained strength in customer demand is happening in an environment of increasing momentum for process control where KLA's market leadership has strengthened further, and our market share results remain 4 times our nearest competitor. KLA's expanding lead is the result of our number one market position in some of the fastest-growing segments in WFE that have a market size greater than $1 billion in terms of annual revenue. We attribute KLA's strengthening market leadership to our ongoing successful execution of the company's customer-focused strategies, including investing at a high level to drive differentiation with a unique portfolio of products and technologies that address the most critical process control challenges in the marketplace and help our customers drive their growth strategy. We're pleased to see the success of our strategies validated by our customers' purchasing decisions and reflected in the April 2022 Gartner market share report, showing KLA's market leadership advancement. This emphasizes the power of the portfolio strategy we employ. The recently published Gartner market share report shows process control was one of the fastest-growing segments of WFE in 2021, growing 43% in the year to $10.4 billion. KLA's share of process control grew approximately 1 percentage point to over 54% and has increased over 3 percentage points since 2018 and remains greater than 4 times our nearest competitor across all regions. Within process control, the optical inspection market grew to approximately $2.5 billion in annual sales, outpacing WFE by 40%, and our share of this market remained above 80%. Other highlights demonstrate the power of KLA's portfolio strategy in delivering strong growth in other critical process control markets, including metrology, macro inspection and very strong growth in e-beam review. Turning now to the top five highlights for the March 2022 quarter. First, KLA's market leadership in some of the most critical and fastest-growing markets in WFE continues to fuel growth. We remain nimble and innovative in addressing global supply challenges to meet customer requirements and our financial targets. Foundry and Logic, simultaneous investments across multiple nodes and rising capital intensity remain a tailwind. In memory, demand is broad-based across multiple customers. Second, our optical metrology business stood out in the March quarter, driven by KLA's market leadership and increasing customer adoption of market applications and leading-edge technology development and capacity monitoring. The optical metrology market is strongly leveraged to EUV and critical next-generation architectures, including gate-all-around and multi-stack 160-plus layer 3D NAND. This was further illustrated in the new Gartner market share report, which showed 50% growth in 2021. Third, KLA is intensifying our efforts in advanced packaging and automotive electronics, leveraging the combined portfolio of both the SPC and EPC groups. KLA is broadening our product portfolio and delivering a comprehensive suite of products and technologies that include wafer-level packaging and final assembly and test products for advanced packaging markets, and a portfolio of inspection systems and process tools designed to help customers achieve their zero defect goals. These collaborations continue to grow with KLA recording our highest-ever customer engagement in terms of wafer inspection revenue for automotive applications in the March quarter. Fourth, services revenue was $488 million, up 14% year-over-year. The company tallied a record 349 installs in the March quarter, well above the previous high of 293. This was a remarkable achievement given travel restrictions in Asia, lockdowns related to COVID-19 and complexities related to the current supply environment. Service revenue is consistently outperforming the 9% to 11% long-term growth target, driven by growing installed base, increasing customer adoption of long-term service agreements, higher utilization rates, and expansion of service opportunities in the legacy nodes. Finally, the March quarter was another exceptional period from a free cash flow perspective. We generated quarterly free cash flow of $719 million for 23% year-over-year growth. We've also remained focused on returning capital to shareholders via our dividend and stock repurchase programs, both of which are up materially year-over-year, including $565 million in quarterly share repurchases and an additional $159 million in dividends in the March quarter. Before passing the call over to Bren to review the financial highlights and guidance, let me summarize briefly. KLA's March quarter demonstrates sustained outperformance, highlighting the critical nature of KLA's products and services and enabling the digital transformation of our lives. Our consistent strong execution against significant challenges in the marketplace, both in terms of meeting rising demand and addressing persistent supply issues highlight the resiliency of the KLA operating model and our commitment to productive capital allocation. KLA is exceptionally positioned at the forefront of technology innovation with a comprehensive portfolio of products to meet demanding customer requirements, balancing sensitivity and throughput. The semiconductor and electronics landscape are constantly changing, and we continue to see more customer interest driven by technology change than ever before at the leading edge. Simultaneously, the need for increasing performance and reliability requirements for legacy nodes to support evolving markets like automotive and 5G are also important to help deliver new capabilities. We believe KLA will continue to benefit from numerous secular growth factors that drive long-term industry demand. At the same time, our strategy of driving diversified growth with strong long-term operating leverage should provide durable free cash flow generation and consistent capital returns to our shareholders. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Bren.

Thanks, Rick. Our results reinforce the success of our execution and strong market position. We continue to focus on meeting customer needs in a robust demand environment while expanding market leadership, growing revenue, increasing gross and operating profit, generating strong free cash flow, and maintaining our long-term strategy of productive capital allocation. Quarterly revenue was $2.289 billion at the upper end of the guided range of $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion. Non-GAAP gross margin was above the midpoint of guidance at 62.9% as the various components performed mostly as expected, with upside coming from the higher-than-expected semiconductor process control systems revenue, which enhanced the product mix for the quarter. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $5.13, also towards the upper end of the guided range of $4.35 to $5.25. GAAP diluted EPS was $4.83. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $484 million, below our expectation of $495 million, mostly due to the pace of new hiring, which was slower than originally planned. Total operating expenses were comprised of $285 million in R&D and $199 million in SG&A. Given the strong demand backdrop, rapid expansion of our business over the last couple of years and our revenue expectations for the business going forward, we expect to continue to invest in our global infrastructure and systems to scale the KLA operating model to facilitate growth. This includes investing in new product development programs and volume-dependent resources to support our business expansion as we position the company to execute against our long-term structural growth thesis. Furthermore, we, as most companies, are seeing a strong labor market driving cost pressure across our global workforce and adjustments related to our annual merit process that went into effect during March. As a result, we expect operating expenses to grow to approximately $525 million in the June quarter, and we forecast quarterly operating expenses to trend higher over the balance of 2022, along with our sequential revenue growth expectations. We continue to size the company based on our target operating model which delivers 40% to 50% incremental operating margin leverage on revenue growth over our normalized time horizon. Non-GAAP operating income as a percentage of revenue was once again strong at 41.7% in the March quarter. Other income and expense net was $46 million compared with guidance of $41 million, with the variance from guidance reflecting the mark-to-market impact of a strategic supply investment. For the June quarter, we forecast other income and expense net at approximately $43 million. The quarterly effective tax rate was 14.6%, above our guided tax rate of 13.5%. Non-GAAP earnings per share at the guided tax rate would have been $5.20. Non-GAAP net income was $776 million. GAAP net income was $731 million. Cash flow from operations was $819 million. And free cash flow was $719 million, resulting in free cash flow conversion of 93% and free cash flow margin of 31.4%. Looking at revenue by reportable segments and end markets, revenue for the Semiconductor Process Control segment, including its associated service business, was $1.98 billion, up 31% year-over-year and down 4% sequentially, as expected. The approximate Semiconductor Process Control system customer segment mix for foundry logic customers was approximately 63%. Memory was approximately 37%, with a further breakdown comprised of 26% from DRAM customers and 11% from NAND. Revenue for our EPC group continues to be driven by strength in automotive, 5G and advanced packaging. Within EPC, the specialty semiconductor process segment, which includes its associated service business, generated revenue of $117 million, up 28% over the prior year and up 4% sequentially. PCB, Display, and Component Inspection revenue was $193 million, down 6% year-over-year and up 2% on a sequential basis. For an additional breakdown of revenue by major products in region, please see the shareholder letter and slides. In terms of the balance sheet, KLA ended the quarter with $2.6 billion in total cash, debt of $3.7 billion and a flexible and attractive bond maturity profile supported by strong investment-grade ratings from all three agencies. We have growing confidence in our business over the long run and are committed to a consistent strategy of cash returns to shareholders that enables growing dividends and increased share repurchases. Over the long term, we target returning at least 70% of free cash flow generated. Our capital return strategy underscores our strong record of predictable and productive capital deployment and remains an important differentiating element of the KLA investment thesis. Over the last 12 months, KLA has returned $2.3 billion to shareholders, including $1.7 billion in share repurchases and $620 million in dividends paid. KLA has an impressive history of consistent free cash flow generation, high free cash flow conversion, and a strong free cash flow margin across all phases of the business cycle and economic conditions. Turning to the outlook, our overall semiconductor demand and WFE outlook for calendar 2022 remains unchanged. We expect the WFE market to grow in the mid-teens to over $100 billion in 2022, off a higher base of approximately $87 billion in calendar 2021 after assessing reported results for the December quarter. Although based on pure company March reporting, it appears that industry supply issues will increase the loading in the second half of the year. This reflects the continued broad-based strength of demand across all customer segments. While we add capacity at KLA and with our suppliers, supply chain shortages continue to constrain our ability to meet customer demand. In addition, the duration and potential expansion of COVID-19-related lockdowns in China are unknown and could adversely impact some suppliers with operations in the affected areas. Furthermore, these lockdowns could delay systems installations and customer acceptance processes due to resource mobility restrictions in the country. In short, the situation is fluid and will be monitored closely. Supplier visibility remains challenging and has not improved over the past three months. We still expect to see quarterly sequential revenue growth throughout calendar 2022 and overall revenue growth for the calendar year to exceed 20%. In addition, we believe that demand will continue to exceed supply through the remainder of the calendar year. KLA is in a position to deliver another year of sustainable outperformance in our semiconductor process control business and strong relative growth overall. Looking ahead, we remain encouraged by the strength and sustainability of our current demand profile. Our bookings momentum and strong backlog positions us to outperform WFE. As in calendar 2021, we are strategically adding capacity across our global manufacturing footprint to support this outlook and our customers' growing process control requirements. Our June quarter guidance is as follows. Total revenue is expected to be in a range of $2.425 billion, plus or minus $125 million. Foundry logic is forecasted to be approximately 56%, and memory is expected to be approximately 44% of semiconductor process control systems revenue. Within memory, DRAM is expected to be about 66% of the segment and NAND is forecasted to be about 34%. We forecast non-GAAP gross margin to be in a range of 61.5% to 63.5% as we expect sequential growth in EPC revenue in the quarter and a slightly weaker product mix within semi process control to dilute margins modestly versus the March quarter. Longer term, infrastructure investments, labor cost inflation, supply chain strain and rising global logistics costs are surpassing the benefits of economies of scale normally seen in a rising revenue environment. Given expectations for revenue for the year, we continue to expect that calendar 2022 gross margins will be in a range of 63%, plus or minus 50 basis points. Other model assumptions for the June quarter include non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $525 million, other income and expense net of approximately $43 million, and an effective tax rate of approximately 13.5%. Finally, GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be in a range of $4.60 to $5.70. And non-GAAP diluted EPS in a range of $4.93 to $6.03. The EPS guidance is based on a fully diluted share count of approximately 150 million shares. In closing, the secular trends driving semiconductor growth and investments in WFE are compelling despite the current macroeconomic headwinds. Broad-based customer demand and simultaneous investments across technology nodes are strong and resilient trends. We have confidence in the leading indicators for our business, including our backlog and bookings visibility, which motivates us to invest in expanding our business infrastructure and the required capabilities to support our outlook. Our customers' multiyear investment plans provide an element of stability in the demand outlook for the future. KLA's operating model positions us well to outperform our industry and guides our important strategic objectives. These objectives fuel our growth, reliable operational excellence and differentiation across an increasingly diverse product and service offering. They are also the foundation of our sustained technology leadership, wide competitive moat, leading financial performance, long-standing track record of strong free cash flow generation and consistent capital returns to shareholders. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Kevin to begin the Q&A session.

Thank you, Bren. David, please queue for questions.

Great job on the solid execution. As you pointed out, the market share numbers for last year are available. You increased your process control market share to nearly 55%, which is over four times larger than your closest competitor. I reviewed the data, and in the seven major categories under process control, you hold the number one market share position in five of those categories. The areas where you grew by more than 50% are pattern wafer inspection, overlay and metrology, macro inspection, and review and classification. Clearly, all of these are essential solutions for next-generation manufacturing technologies. With a strong growth outlook for this year, which areas or segments do you expect to drive outperformance and potentially gain further share in your process control business this year?

Yes. Harlan, I'll go ahead and start and let Rick add if he needs to here. But it was a very strong year, obviously, for the company. And we're really pleased with the share results. One of the things as we look at just our expectation this year is we expect to see continued momentum in a lot of the markets that you referenced, so there's certainly strength that's expected there. We're expecting greater than market growth out of our reticle inspection business, which was a little slower than market last year, and it tends to be a lumpier business. But as we move into this year, it should be a little bit stronger. So overall, we feel pretty good about the road map across our products. As we said in the prepared remarks, our biggest challenge is just getting the parts we need to meet the very strong customer demand that's out there. But we're encouraged by the momentum we have, and our internal plan is to continue to gain share. We think there's more opportunity for us given what you said in terms of where we are. We go linearly, but at the same time, we've had a nice trajectory over the last few years and would expect to see it grow as we move forward.

Yes. To add a few points, Gartner's data reflects strong revenue, and the bookings situation is even better. We are in a solid position regarding our backlog and demand. We will continue to gain market share in the segments you mentioned. Moreover, the new technologies being developed present more opportunities for process control intensity. For instance, advancements like high-k/metal gate and gate-all-around, along with larger die sizes, will create additional opportunities. We have products ready and in use that are poised to capitalize on these advancements. We feel well positioned overall. Our main challenge remains meeting demand, and while we believe we have managed the supply chain effectively, there is still more work to do to continue supporting our customers.

I appreciate the insights. Regarding your EPC franchise, which includes specialty semiconductor, manufacturing, packaging, PCB, and display franchises, it has significantly diversified the KLA business. Reflecting on the last Analyst Day, the team projected a growth rate of 9% to 10% CAGR for EPC. Instead, you achieved around 15% growth in that sector last year, including services, leading to a 2-year CAGR of about 12%. This indicates you're ahead of your targets. What growth do you anticipate for EPC in this calendar year, especially considering the strong emphasis by your semiconductor customers on power, RF, sensors, advanced packaging, and new PCB architectures? While there may be some challenges from smartphone and display weaknesses, I would like to hear your thoughts on EPC's growth this year.

Yes, Harlan. We expect our systems segment of EPC to achieve around 20% growth for the year, although we will need to monitor how this unfolds. This segment typically operates on a shorter lead time and is somewhat influenced by consumer market dynamics. Overall, we anticipate about 20% growth there. When combined with the service aspect, the growth will be in the high teens, as the service business generally expands at a slower pace. Over the last couple of years, we have consistently seen growth in the 20% range in the systems area, although it hasn't received as much attention due to the strength of our semi process control business. We are optimistic about our direction and will provide more insights into our long-term outlook during our Investor Day in mid-June.

I guess first question, can you speak to your backlog? What your blended kind of lead times look like today? And what kind of visibility that provides you into 2023?

Yes, it's a great question. Currently, our blended lead times are over a year, varying across different products and their revenue value within the backlog. Some product lines have even longer lead times, and we're scheduling certain products into 2024 due to high demand. The constraints around key components and their lead times are causing these delays. Overall, we've noticed an upward trend in lead times. As I mentioned earlier, I expect demand to continue to exceed supply throughout the year, which may lead to a slight increase in lead times as we progress.

Very helpful. As my follow-up. Curious, on the China lockdowns, any impact or future impact in your view, particularly around kind of PCB and display area? I would imagine that might be a downstream potential risk in terms of taking deliveries.

Our guidance reflects a risk-adjusted view of our current situation. There are always uncertainties, particularly regarding supply, which we are confident about, but even more in terms of customer access, tool installation, and acceptance processes. We have factored these considerations into our guidance. We anticipate some recovery beginning around mid-May. If the situation extends beyond that or if lockdown measures increase significantly, it could affect us further. However, we believe we have adjusted for these risks as best as possible. There are still uncertainties, but we are optimistic about the guidance we've shared.

Bren, I wanted to try to probe a little bit on that question around backlog because backlog really doesn't mean a whole lot when your lead times are sitting beyond that 12-month window for backlog. So I guess the question is more on purchase obligations. I think you report that in the Q, and it was greater than $8 billion, I think, exiting December. And so I guess the first question is sort of where does that stand now? I'm just trying to get a sense of sort of how long book-to-bill is going to stay above 1. And maybe if you could give us backlog, a number.

Yes. So Tim, you'll see the exact number in the 10-Q that we file. And it's the performance obligations, not purchase commitments. But anyway, the performance obligations, where you're right, we're over $8 billion last quarter and we'll be in excess of $10 billion this quarter. And to my earlier comment, I think we'll see book-to-bill above 1 through the year.

I have a question about process control systems. March performed nearly $100 million better than I expected and what I believe your guidance suggested. June seems to be in line. Previously, you mentioned that in the second half of the year, process control systems would increase in the low to mid-teens. Is that still the correct estimate, considering March's stronger performance? Additionally, I'm curious about timing issues since the films team is facing shipping delays for tools, which might shift some wafer fabrication equipment from the first half to the latter half of the year. Given that your shipments are increasing while theirs are decreasing, could this create timing mismatches, possibly causing delays in your tool shipments as well?

Tim, typically, this doesn't affect us significantly because we usually implement process control tools early on. Additionally, considering the current demand landscape, customers are managing timing issues related to tool delivery and storage to meet their expectations with their other tool sets. Therefore, I am not very worried about this, given the strong demand. Customers are constantly urging us to ship more quickly, so I don't think delays in other tool types will impact our products. You are correct that Q1 was robust. The teams executed well in the past month despite facing numerous part delays, particularly concerning automation for our systems, and we are very pleased with the positive results we experienced in Q1. Looking ahead to the second half, I anticipate maintaining my expectations in the low to mid-teens range for semiconductor process control systems, comparing the second half to the first half.

I was wondering how we should view the slower-than-expected hiring in a challenging labor market. I assume this is more focused on 2023. How should we consider this in relation to your ability to have enough workforce to meet demand this year?

Joe, it's Rick. The situation was more about the timing of costs related to hiring. We did well in bringing on new employees in Q1, but if they weren't hired at the start of the quarter and we accounted for payroll for the entire quarter, we are still on track with our hiring goals for the year. Most of these challenges were linked more to engineering work rather than operations or service, where a lack of resources could lead to potential shortfalls. However, we're currently focused on reducing the overtime workload for our teams and providing additional support. None of our hiring obstacles are hindering our ability to support revenue this year or next. While we want to accelerate hiring, we've seen good progress, but these timelines are measured in months rather than quarters or years.

Got it. That's helpful. And then just as a quick follow-up. I was wondering if you could talk about the strength you saw in DRAM during the quarter? And I think you even implied in the guide, I think we're at record levels for process control systems. Just kind of curious what drove that, if it's architectural changes, EUV? Anything like that would be helpful.

Yes, Joe, it's mostly technology transitions this year. And certainly, the introduction of EUV and DRAM has been a driver for investment from our customers. It's pretty broad. As I look at the DRAM investment, it's pretty broad-based across our customer set.

Maybe first off for you, Rick. In terms of the advanced packaging market, you've done a great job in terms of getting the value proposition for front-end chipmakers with your process control solutions. Now some of these customers are the same ones on the advanced packaging side. Some of them obviously are OSAT and customers like that. As advanced packaging becomes a much more complex problem, how do you get the customer mindset changed to get that same value proposition for those types of processes given the complexities that are occurring?

Yes, that's a great question, and we are indeed excited about the EPC acquisition for this reason. I would frame our approach to EPC in three phases. The first phase was implementing the operating model and how we manage our businesses, which we focused on initially. The second phase involves customer engagement, especially since some of these customers have greater complexity in their issues and are already familiar with KLA, allowing them to connect with us effectively. This engagement has been progressing well, leading to numerous discussions. The third phase is about leveraging KLA's technology for EPC. Currently, we are engaged in both the second and third phases, having productive meetings that have revealed several clear opportunities for us, which we are now working on and starting to implement. As we move forward, you can expect to see the benefits from additional channel access and our technology's advantages reflected in revenue synergies. We plan to provide more details on this during the Analyst Day in June, but we are currently in a strong position to support these opportunities following the acquisition.

Great. As my follow-up maybe for Bren. Given WFE, the outlook looks like it's going to be a much more second-half weighted year, particularly in terms of revenues and when the equipment companies receive cash. You guys have been executing well, getting tools out on time. But we've heard from other companies where they're shipping incomplete tools, where they'll finish the install and get the revenue recognition later on, so to not expect a huge shipment ramp or a huge production ramp in the second half of the year. How are you balancing those dynamics? Are you shipping any incomplete tools at the customer site where you can then go back later on so it doesn't overly imbalance both shipments as well as your revenue recognition?

Yes, Patrick, that's a great question. When discussing process tools, we use modular systems that often come together at the customer site, aligning automation, gas boxes, and process chambers. If any parts are missing, it can create challenges. Our systems are fully shipped, as we internally source the handlers. For the most part, they don't arrive incomplete, although there might be occasional issues within the FPD business where a similar situation could arise. In some instances, revenue deferral isn't feasible based on the transaction's nature, but this represents a very small fraction of KLA. For our semi process control business, we deliver complete systems, so you won't see significant changes in deferred revenue as we progress. What we are shipping consists of complete systems, and that's what will drive our revenue moving forward.

I think my first question is I wanted to understand if you have a sense of what the industry wafer capacity is expected to grow in this year and for the next year. So WFE is expected to be around the mid-teens growth for this year. Like how does that translate to an increased capacity? If you can provide any color here. And I understand if you don't have an industry view, maybe you could talk to a subset of your customers, that would be helpful.

Yes. So at least $100 billion in WFE. It's translating. And I don't have the exact numbers, but we're seeing new wafer starts per month being added across all production nodes. And you're seeing it in memory at a limited level, certainly this year compared to prior years, less because it's more of a technology transition-focused year. But certainly, on the foundry logic side, you're seeing increases in the 3-nanometer, 5-nanometer. And 7- and 10-nanometer is probably flattish, but then you get 28 and 40 and above and sort of those nodes. You've got the legacy investment that's happening there. So you're really seeing wafer start additions across just about all production nodes.

So is that consistent with WFE growth? That's what I was trying to understand. Or is it an 18% increase? If you could clarify the type of capacity increase that represents.

Yes. I don't think I can help you with that right now. By node, the capital intensity changes. And so it's not dollar for dollar in terms of how it applies to wafer starts at a given node.

Yes, that's an interesting change in the dynamics of the industry. And that was really more isolated to one period in time than if you look at the overall history of the industry. And that was largely because there were not very many new starts on advanced nodes. There were primarily just a handful of customers, a handful of devices. And so that reuse was something that happened when Moore's Law wasn't scaling. We're seeing very little reuse now, and there's a couple of reasons for that.

One of the primary reasons is the number of starts, the broad-based number of devices that's being run on these nodes and the ability of more and more customers to support that. That means that our customers are running flat out those technology nodes as they're introducing new ones. So we're actually seeing kind of the opposite effect, if you will. We're seeing some capacity, some of our sales are actually into ramps that historically we would have considered to be done. And they're actually buying tools, for example, for 7-nanometer right now. There's still some of that going on in spite of the new investment being advanced. So reuse is significantly down in terms of the amount. And that's a trend that our customers believe is going to continue is that it's going to be a focus on supporting that. And if you look at the overall semiconductor shortage in the world, you can imagine that, that's not something that they can really afford to do because they're running those old lines flat out, and we see that in our service business and the overall fabulization around the world.

This is Rob Mertens on behalf of Krish. I guess, looking into the services, you've been growing the business nicely. You mentioned a strong installed base component in the quarter and just in general. But looking at the attach rate opportunity, I think you've mentioned maybe over 75% process control systems and maybe 90% in PCB. Is that a fair assessment? And is there further room to growth in terms of that side of the service business?

Yes. Look, certainly, as the tools increase in complexity and the demand on uptime increases, it does create opportunities for us to drive a contract model, a subscription-like model with those customers. And so we do think there's some upside potential over time, and we'll talk a little bit about some of the longer-term drivers of our service business and its trajectory going forward at our Investor Day in June. But obviously, PCB at closer to 90%, it's hard to improve much on that, but I think that there's still some opportunity on the semi PC side given the dynamics I mentioned. One of the other opportunities we have in our acquired businesses is to try to drive more and higher attach on those tools in terms of service. And certainly, smaller players have a harder time having the infrastructure to be able to engage with customers to try to monetize that service business. And so there's opportunities for us in our specialty semiconductor business, our flat panel business and some other smaller acquisitions we've done to drive more service opportunity. We'll have a lot more to say about it in June, but hopefully, that helps for now.

Great. That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up. In terms of the WFE view you gave and sort of peers are indicating, would assume that supply issues are going to sort of ease in the second half. What sort of incremental challenges have you seen within the industry over the past couple of months? Are there any sort of specific shortages, key components? Or is it sort of an ongoing rolling issue where things pop up and are dealt with and then other things pop up?

Yes. I think the whack-a-mole analogy is applicable here. It seems that as we work certain issues, other issues materialize. The dynamic in China with the COVID lockdowns does have some potential impact on some suppliers. Although we think we've dealt with it in the guidance we've given in terms of just our assessment of the risk profile of that. But I would say they're all the same issues, and we just continue to work, and the teams have done a really good job with it.

First one for maybe Rick. If you can update us on your single beam eSL10 platform in terms of design wins and sales expectations this year. And the reason I asked that question is because we were at SPIE conference this year, and it appears that the multi-e-beam platforms are showing limited flexibility and gaps to HVM manufacturing at logic makers like Intel. And then I have a follow-up.

Yes. In general, the e-beam inspection landscape has not changed significantly. We have seen some success with the eSL10, but when looking at the overall balance between optical and e-beam inspection, it remains around an 80/20 split in favor of optical. This trend has been consistent over the years. There are more e-beam applications emerging, particularly in reticle inspection, where we are uniquely participating with our new 8xx system to capture some of the EUV opportunities. Overall, not much has shifted. While we continue to respond to the latest developments in e-beam inspection, the market remains approximately 20% for e-beam compared to 80% for optical inspection.

No, I think they're complementary technologies, and scaling into production is the challenge, as you mentioned. Even as you increase the beams, it doesn't necessarily lead to a significant increase in throughput. While there is some increase, the challenge remains, and the throughput difference is quite pronounced compared to optical solutions. Therefore, it is mainly suited for defect discovery and engineering analysis rather than being applicable to a production environment. This has been well validated by the strength we have observed in optical pattern inspection over the last few years.

Just one more example, which is important to understand. In 2021, our Gen 4 optical actually generated more revenue than our Gen 5 optical within the 80% market share. The remaining portion was split among various e-beam players. This suggests that the latest technologies do not necessarily require e-beam inspection. In fact, it highlights the ongoing relevance of optical technology, as evidenced in both 2021 and what we are observing in 2022. We anticipate that Gen 4 will continue to perform well in fulfilling overall inspection requirements. Therefore, the expectation is that e-beam and optical will be complementary, with e-beam primarily serving as a tool for engineering analysis rather than in-line inspection.

Great. And then my follow-up, Bren. Is it possible to break out the leading-edge sales, let's say, 10-nanometer or below, within your foundry logic sales?

Yes, it's about 80% is leading edge. Yes, that might include 14, 16, but that's only a few percent. So it's safe to say that pretty much 80% or so is 10-nanometer and below.

I wanted to follow up on your comments regarding reticle outgrowing the market this year. Can you explain why it fell short last year? Was it due to customer mix or just lumpiness? What gives you confidence that you will achieve faster growth than the market this year?

Last year, we experienced a strong performance in 2020, but 2021 fell short of market growth. Although it was still a positive year for the business, it did not meet market expectations. However, this year we are seeing more strength. The performance can be inconsistent, particularly with our Teron systems sold to mass shops, which generate significant revenue. These high average selling prices can distort the overall market numbers. Nonetheless, we are experiencing strength in both extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology and new layer development, primarily driven by the foundry and logic sectors, leading to increased reticle sets. There are also numerous new designs as well as revisions of older designs contributing to strong reticle demand, which is the main factor driving growth. Additionally, we have applications in wafer fabrication related to contamination monitoring, and we anticipate some revenue this year from the e-beam system mentioned by Rick as we approach year-end. These elements are contributing to our positive outlook.

Yes, Wes, I would add one thing to it also is we're talking about the reticle inspector. But if you look at the application itself of qualifying reticles, a lot of the success we had in 2021 and continue to have now is use of Gen 5 to qualify EUV reticles. So while it may not be the rapid systems we're selling, it's the application in support of those, largely because that is the most effective way to determine the quality of those reticles is to actually inspect them. And finally, we have the capability to do it on the wafers with Gen 5. And so we saw a huge push from customers, multiple customers, everyone who's essentially doing EUV to utilize Gen 5 to qualify those reticles.

Thank you, Wes, and it looks like that brings us to the end of the call. I wanted to just again remind everyone that we're hoping we can see you in person in New York, June 16. If you don't have an invitation, please do reach out to the KLA IR team, and we will get you one. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to David for any final statements.