MDLZ Fair Value Estimate
$38.6734.5% overvalued
Blended fair value estimate based on DCF, Graham Number, and earnings-based models.
Mondelez International Inc - Class A
Exchange: NASDAQSector: Consumer DefensiveIndustry: Confectioners
Mondelēz International, Inc. empowers people to snack right in over 150 countries around the world. With 2020 net revenues of approximately $27 billion, MDLZ is leading the future of snacking with iconic global and local brands such as OREO, belVita and LU biscuits; Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka and Toblerone chocolate; Sour Patch Kids candy and Trident gum. Mondelēz International is a proud member of the Standard and Poor’s 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Sustainability Index. Visit www.mondelezinternational.com or follow the company on Twitter at www.twitter.com/MDLZ. About HALLS® HALLS is America's #1 selling cough drop brand that provides cough and sore throat relief when you need it most so that you can get back to doing the things you love.
Did you know?
MDLZ's revenue grew at a 6.9% CAGR over the last 6 years.
Current Price
$59.00
-0.15%GoodMoat Value
$38.67
34.5% overvaluedProfile
Valuation (TTM)
Market Cap$76.13B
P/E31.06
EV$93.05B
P/B2.95
Shares Out1.29B
P/Sales1.98
Revenue$38.54B
EV/EBITDA19.66
Mondelez International Inc - Class A (MDLZ) Valuation
GoodMoat Analysis
Mondelez International is unfavourable from a value investing perspective, as it trades at a significant premium to its estimated intrinsic value. The current price of $57.43 is 49% above the GoodMoat Target of $38.67, indicating a negative margin of safety.
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Based on the GoodMoat Investment Framework's valuation assessment, Mondelez International (MDLZ) appears significantly overvalued. The primary tool is a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, which yields a GoodMoat Target (fair value estimate) of $38.67. The current stock price of $57.43 is 49% above this target, resulting in a negative margin of safety. According to the framework's MoS bands, any result below 10% is considered 'Unfavourable,' and a 49% premium clearly fails this valuation gate. Supporting this view, the forward P/E of 30.2x is high for a company with 9.3% revenue growth and a 6.4% profit margin. This multiple suggests the market is pricing in near-perfect execution and leaves little room for error. While the 3.36% dividend yield and 4.4% FCF yield offer some return, they are insufficient to offset the high price paid for earnings. For a value investor seeking a margin of safety, the stock's current valuation does not provide an attractive entry point relative to its estimated intrinsic value and growth profile. Analysis based on data as of 2024-05-15.
MDLZ Valuation Metrics
FCF$3.24B
FCF Growth Rate0.64%
EPS Growth (CAGR)0.64%
WACC10.00%
Fair Value Models
Graham Number, PEG-based, and Earnings-based models
View Fair Value →MDLZ Valuation & Fair Value Analysis
Mondelez International Inc - Class A (MDLZ) valuation analysis using multiple fair value methodologies. GoodMoat calculates a blended fair value target using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, the Graham Number, and earnings-based valuation models.
The GoodMoat Fair Value target for Mondelez International Inc - Class A is $38.67. The current stock price is $59.00, suggesting the stock is 52.6% overvalued.
The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 31.06. Price-to-book ratio is 2.95. Price-to-sales ratio is 1.98. Enterprise value to EBITDA is 19.66. PEG ratio is -0.51.
GoodMoat's valuation models include the Graham Number (based on EPS and book value), an earnings-based model (discounted future EPS), and a PEG-adjusted valuation. The three models are averaged to produce a blended fair value estimate. Use these tools alongside the DCF calculator and reverse DCF to form a comprehensive view of Mondelez International Inc - Class A's intrinsic value.