MDT Fair Value Estimate
$53.3231.9% overvalued
Blended fair value estimate based on DCF, Graham Number, and earnings-based models.
Medtronic Plc
Exchange: NYSESector: HealthcareIndustry: Medical Devices
As the global market leader, Medtronic Cranial and Spinal Technologies is transforming the standard of care in spine and cranial surgery by putting patients first and addressing the complex challenges faced by spine and neurosurgeons. With a portfolio of 150 products covering more than 20 pathologies, we serve over 4 million patients annually. Building on a legacy of innovation, our AiBLE™ ecosystem integrates advanced technologies, data, and AI with a patient-centric approach, offering customizable solutions to enhance surgical precision, improve workflow efficiency, and achieve better outcomes, before, during, and beyond surgery. About Medtronic Bold thinking. Bold thinking. Bolder actions. We are Medtronic. Medtronic plc, headquartered in Galway, Ireland, is the leading global healthcare technology company that boldly attacks the most challenging health problems facing humanity by searching out and finding solutions. Our Mission — to alleviate pain, restore health, and extend life — unites a global team of 95,000+ passionate people across more than 150 countries. Our technologies and therapies treat 70 health conditions and include cardiac devices, surgical robotics, insulin pumps, surgical tools, patient monitoring systems, and more. Powered by our diverse knowledge, insatiable curiosity, and desire to help all those who need it, we deliver innovative technologies that transform the lives of two people every second, every hour, every day. Expect more from us as we empower insight-driven care, experiences that put people first, and better outcomes for our world. In everything we do, we are engineering the extraordinary.
Did you know?
Free cash flow has been growing at -2.1% annually.
Current Price
$78.30
-2.13%GoodMoat Value
$53.32
31.9% overvaluedProfile
Valuation (TTM)
Market Cap$100.38B
P/E21.76
EV$131.44B
P/B2.09
Shares Out1.28B
P/Sales2.83
Revenue$35.48B
EV/EBITDA12.87
Medtronic Plc (MDT) Valuation
GoodMoat Analysis
Medtronic appears unfavourable from a value investing perspective, trading at a significant premium to its estimated intrinsic value. The current price of $87.89 is 65% above the GoodMoat Target of $53.32, indicating a negative margin of safety. The P/E multiple is also elevated relative to its own historical context and the company's modest growth profile.
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The valuation assessment reveals a clear lack of a margin of safety. According to the GoodMoat framework, a margin of safety (MoS) of 20-40% is considered favourable, and over 40% is deeply undervalued. Here, the current price of $87.89 is 65% above the GoodMoat Target fair value estimate of $53.32, resulting in a negative MoS. This places the stock firmly in the 'unfavourable' band of the valuation framework, failing the Valuation & Risk Gate. The forward P/E of approximately 24.4x is high for a company with single-digit revenue growth (8.7% YoY) and a 9.6% Return on Equity. While the P/E may be in line with some sector peers, it is expensive relative to Medtronic's own growth and quality metrics. The dividend yield of 3.19% and a 4.6% FCF yield are positive but insufficient to offset the substantial overvaluation implied by the DCF-based target. For a value investor seeking a discount to intrinsic value, the current price does not offer an attractive entry point based on this quantitative assessment. Analysis based on data as of 2024-05-15.
MDT Valuation Metrics
FCF$5.18B
FCF Growth Rate-2.06%
EPS Growth (CAGR)0.11%
WACC10.00%
Fair Value Models
Graham Number, PEG-based, and Earnings-based models
View Fair Value →MDT Valuation & Fair Value Analysis
Medtronic Plc (MDT) valuation analysis using multiple fair value methodologies. GoodMoat calculates a blended fair value target using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, the Graham Number, and earnings-based valuation models.
The GoodMoat Fair Value target for Medtronic Plc is $53.32. The current stock price is $78.30, suggesting the stock is 46.8% overvalued.
The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 21.76. Price-to-book ratio is 2.09. Price-to-sales ratio is 2.83. Enterprise value to EBITDA is 12.87. PEG ratio is -1.83.
GoodMoat's valuation models include the Graham Number (based on EPS and book value), an earnings-based model (discounted future EPS), and a PEG-adjusted valuation. The three models are averaged to produce a blended fair value estimate. Use these tools alongside the DCF calculator and reverse DCF to form a comprehensive view of Medtronic Plc's intrinsic value.