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Newmont Corp

Exchange: NYSESector: Basic MaterialsIndustry: Gold

Newmont is the world’s leading gold company and a producer of copper, zinc, lead, and silver. The Company’s world-class portfolio of assets, prospects and talent is anchored in favorable mining jurisdictions in Africa, Australia, Latin America & Caribbean, North America, and Papua New Guinea. Newmont is the only gold producer listed in the S&P 500 Index and is widely recognized for its principled environmental, social, and governance practices. Newmont is an industry leader in value creation, supported by robust safety standards, superior execution, and technical expertise. Founded in 1921, the Company has been publicly traded since 1925. At Newmont, our purpose is to create value and improve lives through sustainable and responsible mining.

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Newmont Corp (NEM) — Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Apr 5, 202615 speakers7,248 words72 segments

AI Call Summary AI-generated

The 30-second take

Newmont finished 2025 very strong, hitting its targets and generating record cash flow. The company is now focused on returning more money to shareholders through a bigger dividend and stock buybacks, while carefully managing costs. For investors, this means a more predictable return of profits, even as the company plans for future growth.

Key numbers mentioned

  • Gold production from the core portfolio was 5.7 million ounces.
  • Free cash flow for the full year was $7.3 billion.
  • Proceeds from divestitures to date were $4.5 billion.
  • Capital returned to shareholders in 2025 was $3.4 billion.
  • Gold reserve base stands at 118 million ounces.
  • 2026 all-in sustaining cost guidance is approximately $1,680 per ounce.

What management is worried about

  • The company is focused on supporting the family and colleagues after a fatal incident at the Tanami operation and is investigating to strengthen safety systems.
  • Operating in a rapidly evolving geopolitical and macroeconomic environment presents ongoing challenges.
  • Production from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo is expected to be lower than previously anticipated.
  • The company has issued a notice of default to its Nevada Gold Mines joint venture partner related to operational performance and management.
  • First quarter 2026 free cash flow is expected to be lower due to large tax payments and normal working capital seasonality.

What management is excited about

  • The company introduced an enhanced capital allocation framework centered on a dividend designed to grow per share, supported by ongoing share repurchases.
  • Exploration success at Brucejack and Ahafo South points to significant new high-grade resources and potential mine life extensions.
  • The successful commissioning of the Ahafo North mine is now delivering new low-cost production.
  • Major projects like the Tanami expansion and Cadia panel caves are advancing on track, supporting future growth.
  • The company has identified a capital-efficient plan to extend mining at Yanacocha into 2027, adding low-cost ounces.

Analyst questions that hit hardest

  1. Tanya Jakusconek (Scotiabank) - Nevada Gold Mines default process: Management declined to provide details, citing confidentiality provisions in the joint venture agreement and directing the analyst to the publicly filed document.
  2. Hugo Nicolaci (Goldman Sachs) - Emphasis shift from growth to buybacks: Management gave a long answer defending the portfolio's potential but confirmed a disciplined, sequenced approach within the new return-focused capital framework.
  3. Martin Pradier (Veritas Investment Research) - Right of First Refusal on a potential NGM IPO: Management was evasive, stating they had no additional information and that it would be a "theoretical exercise" to comment.

The quote that matters

Our consistent focus on operational delivery, combined with a deliberate and patient approach to balance sheet management has positioned us to continue returning capital to shareholders.

Natascha Viljoen — CEO

Sentiment vs. last quarter

The tone is more forward-looking and assertive regarding shareholder returns, with the launch of a new capital allocation framework. There is also a new, more guarded tension concerning the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, highlighted by the disclosed notice of default.

Original transcript

Operator

Hello, and welcome to Newmont Fourth quarter 2025 Results and 2026 Guidance Conference Call. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Newmont's Group Head of Treasury and Investor Relations, Neil Backhouse. Please go ahead.

O
NB
Neil BackhouseGroup Head of Treasury and Investor Relations

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining Newmont's Fourth Quarter 2025 Results and 2026 Guidance Conference Call. Joining me today are Natascha Viljoen, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Peter Wexler, our Interim Chief Financial Officer and Chief Legal Officer; and Francois Hardy, our Chief Technical Officer. They will all be available today to answer your questions at the end of the call. Before we begin, please take a moment to review our cautionary statements shown here and refer to our SEC filings, which can be found on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Natascha.

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Thank you, Neil, and thank you all for joining today's call. At the beginning of this year, I transitioned into my new role as Chief Executive Officer of Newmont. And I want to be clear that the priorities that guided me as Chief Operating Officer and that contributed to Newmont's success in 2025 remain firmly in place. As CEO, I will continue to focus on the following key areas. Firstly, ensuring that safety remains the highest priority across the organization, embedding efficiency, including cost and capital discipline into everything that we do, demonstrating that we are the best owners and operators of our assets by driving continuous improvement and greater operational consistency; developing the highest return projects in our portfolio, ensuring our business has the runway to operate for decades to come; and enhancing shareholder returns by improving our per share metrics and returning capital to shareholders in a predictable manner, which we believe will support stronger price performance over time. Together, these priorities position us to strengthen our business, enhance returns and build value for all of our stakeholders. Turning now to our results. The fourth quarter of 2025 marked a strong finish to a year of continued progress at Newmont. We achieved our full year guidance, improved our operational performance and strengthened our financial position, reflecting disciplined execution across the business. Our consistent focus on operational delivery, combined with a deliberate and patient approach to balance sheet management has positioned us to continue returning capital to shareholders while improving our financial resilience. Building on that momentum, today, we are introducing an enhanced capital allocation framework structured to be sustainable through the cycle. At its core is a dividend designed to grow on a per share basis, supported by ongoing share repurchases that permanently reduce our overall share count. As the first step, we have increased our quarterly common dividend by 4%, with predictable future growth potential. With that in mind, on today's call, we will review our full year 2025 results, and then walk through Newmont's 2026 guidance and the enhanced capital allocation framework. But first, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the tragic loss of one of our team members, Matthew Middlebrook, following a fatal incident at our Tanami operation earlier this month. Our thoughts and deepest sympathies go out to his family, friends and colleagues, and we are focused on supporting them however we can during this very difficult time. An investigation into the circumstances that led to the incident is underway, and we are committed to fully understanding what happened and taking the necessary actions to strengthen the systems and controls we have in place to ensure that everyone who walks through our gates goes home safely every day. Turning now to our operational performance in 2025. We successfully achieved our production and cost guidance for the year. We produced 5.7 million ounces of gold from our core portfolio as well as 28 million ounces of silver and 135,000 tonnes of copper. We benefited from the cost savings and productivity initiatives implemented last year which helped us mitigate pressures associated with a higher gold price environment and supported further margin expansion. In addition to achieving our absolute and unit cost guidance for 2025, we were able to meaningfully improve our G&A guidance for 2026 by $100 million, which equates to a 21% improvement. This operational and cost discipline contributed to record earnings and free cash flow on both a quarterly and annual basis, generating $2.8 billion in free cash flow in the fourth quarter and $7.3 billion for the full year. We also generated $4.5 billion in proceeds to date from the successful completion of our noncore divestiture program. And notably, we returned $3.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Finally, at the end of 2025, we achieved commercial production at Ahafo North, bringing over 300,000 ounces of gold production into the portfolio this year. Over the last few years, Newmont has been on a transformational journey aimed at curating a world-class portfolio of operations with complementary gold and copper growth opportunities. In 2024, that transformation accelerated as we integrated new assays, began divesting noncore operations and improved our understanding of the potential of our portfolio. And in 2025, this focus shifted to stabilization and optimization with a deliberate emphasis on cost control, productivity improvements, project execution and expanded exploration activities. At the beginning of last year, we indicated that Newmont would benefit from a more stable production profile, and that is exactly what we delivered, demonstrating both the strength of our underlying portfolio and the capability of our people. And as I'll discuss in a moment, we continue to advance value-accretive growth options including the initiation of a mine life extension program at Lihir and the expected completion of Newmont's feasibility study for the Red Chris block cave in the second half of the year. Underpinning this portfolio is the industry's strongest reserve and resource base, providing long-term visibility and confidence. And with this, I will turn it over to Francois to review our 2025 reserves and recent exploration success.

FH
Francois HardyChief Technical Officer

Thank you, Natascha, and hello, everyone. Today, we announced that our gold reserve base stands at 118 million ounces, supported by an additional 149 million ounces of gold resource, together, representing approximately 40 years of production life with meaningful near mine upside potential at many of our operations. In addition to holding the industry's largest gold reserve and resource base, Newmont also has one of the largest copper endowments within the gold industry, providing significant organic optionality to further diversify the portfolio over time. Following a thorough review, we have increased our reserve price assumption for 2025 from $1,700 per ounce to $2,000 per ounce. Even with this increase, our reserve price assumption remains conservative at more than 20% below the 3-year trailing average and well below spot. And our reserve grade remained unchanged year-over-year when adjusted for the assets divested in 2025. It is worth noting that while our reserve price assumption may not change every year, we conduct a disciplined annual review process to ensure it remains appropriate and reflective of evolving views on near- and long-term price. While the divestment of noncore assets was the primary driver of the year-over-year change in reserves, there are a few additional movements worth highlighting. At Yanacocha, we reclassified approximately 4.5 million ounces from reserve back to resource following the decision to indefinitely defer the Yanacocha Sulfides project, better aligning the reserve base with our updated development strategy, as we prioritize other opportunities at and around the sites and continue advancing closure activities in non-operational areas. This was partially offset by several meaningful reserve additions unrelated to gold price or cost escalation, including at Tanami and Lihir. And in Brucejack, where we are seeing significant exploration success, converting approximately 740,000 ounces from resource to reserve. Our exploration activities also delivered promising results at Ahafo South, where we added approximately 2 million ounces to resource in 2025. Exploration remains one of the most strategic levers to extend mine life, grow reserves and create long-term value, which I'll expand upon as we turn to the next slide. Newmont's exploration program is tightly integrated across our 12 managed operations with approximately 80% of activity focused on near-mine and brownfields programs, which are designed to replace reserves, extend mine life and leverage our deep ore body knowledge to unlock future upside. The remaining effort is targeted at select greenfield opportunities that provide longer-term optionality for Newmont. While we're seeing encouraging results across the portfolio, I'll focus today on Brucejack and Ahafo South, where the work underway clearly demonstrates the strength of our approach. At Brucejack, our focused near-mine drilling guided by extensive ore body knowledge delivered a meaningful result in 2025. So in addition to the reserves I mentioned earlier, drilling activities also delivered new resources adjacent to where we're currently mining. And importantly, we have made a new discovery in the Dozer zone as highlighted on the slide, with several significant intercepts, including 20.9 meters at 154 grams per tonne downhole, representing another potential high-grade mineral zone and a key focus of our 2026 growth program. Together, these results reinforce the value of targeted exploration around existing infrastructure. They increase our confidence in Brucejack's longer-term potential and highlight the broader district scale opportunity within the golden triangle. Shifting now to Ahafo South, exploration beneath the Subika and the Apensu open pit continues to point to the next phase of high-grade underground growth. Based on current results, which are indicating grades higher than the current mine average, we anticipate exploration activities will deliver approximately 4 million to 5 million ounces of new gold reserves in 2026. This would meaningfully extend the life of Subika underground mine and support the potential development of a new underground mine at Apensu, both leveraging the existing surface infrastructure and processing capacity at Ahafo South. Looking at our broader portfolio, we're also seeing encouraging exploration developments at Merian, which we plan to provide a more comprehensive update on later this year.

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Thank you, Francois. 2025 was a milestone year for projects, punctuated by the successful commissioning of Ahafo North, a major achievement that now enables the mine to begin delivering an average of 300,000 ounces per year, and we are pleased to report that the total capital spend for the project is expected to come in at the lower end of our estimated range at approximately $950 million. Building on this strong momentum, we continue to advance our 2 other major projects in execution towards completion. Beginning with the second expansion at Tanami, with the 1.5 kilometer concrete shaft lining now complete, we are shifting focus to equipping the shaft and completing construction of the underground crushing and associated materials handling system. Construction for the headframe and mechanical work is expected to be completed in late 2026 with full project completion still on track for the second half of 2027. At Cadia, development for both panel caves continues, and we are progressing towards cave completion at PC2-3 in the fourth quarter of this year as planned. In addition, I'm pleased to announce that in December, we fired the first drawbell at PC1-2, making an important milestone for this project and initiating the next critical phase of cave development. And we continue to advance tailings work at Cadia while progressing the necessary government approvals to support continued operations beyond the current facilities for decades to come. In addition to these major projects in execution, we received full funds approval for the nearshore barrier mine life extension at Lihir, which involves the construction of an in-ground concrete water seepage barrier, unlocking access to over 5 million ounces of low-cost ounces from the Kapit ore body and extending Lihir's mine life to beyond 2040. And we continue to advance the feasibility study at Red Chris for the block cave expansion project with full funds approval targeted in the second half of 2026 when we plan to provide a more fulsome update. With the strong progress made in 2025, we are well positioned to continue delivering value from our world-class portfolio in 2026. Now I want to take a look at 2026. And as with 2025, we are providing high confidence 1-year guidance within a plus or minus 5% range, along with a few of the key drivers supporting longer-term production growth. Beginning with production. Our 2026 guidance remains consistent with the indications provided on our third quarter call with total attributable production of 5.3 million ounces, including 3.9 million ounces from managed operations and 1.4 million ounces from non-managed operations. This outlook reflects the year-on-year changes from the planned mine sequencing at Ahafo South, Peasquito and Cadia as well as the production impact from the Boddington bushfires in December. But we are pleased to report that the recovery following the fires is going well, and our team has successfully repaired the critical water supply infrastructure and processing operations have now restarted at full levels. This guidance also incorporates lower-than-expected ounces from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo as indicated by the managing partner. And importantly, through a careful assessment of our mine plan at Yanacocha and in light of the current gold price environment, we have identified a highly capital-efficient plan, which leverages current infrastructure to continue mining operations through 2026 and into early 2027, adding additional low-cost ounces that are expected to benefit our production profile in early '27 with further potential upside. For the full portfolio, we expect production to be relatively evenly weighted throughout the year with a modest second half weighting of about 52%. And as previously indicated, 2026 represents a trough in our production cycle due to planned mine sequencing across several operations as we position the portfolio to return to production growth in 2027 and beyond, maintaining our longer-term outlook of approximately 6 million ounces of gold and 150,000 tonnes of copper annually. Turning now to our cost outlook. As mentioned at the start of the call, we have made great strides towards improving and managing the cost within our control, and this will remain a key priority in 2026, especially when operating in a volatile macroeconomic environment. Last year, we committed to measuring the success of our cost and productivity program by our ability to control absolute cost. And in 2026, the only expected increases to our cost applicable to sales are those directly linked to timing impacts and higher gold prices, including production taxes, working participation costs and third-party royalties. Importantly, even with these price-linked impacts, all-in sustaining costs are expected to be more than $100 per ounce lower than they would have been without the cost savings initiatives launched last year, demonstrating the structural improvements we've made to our cost base. As previously indicated, we are providing guidance on a byproduct basis going forward, consistent with our industry peers while continuing to report both by-product and co-product cost for comparability. On that basis, 2026 all-in sustaining costs are expected to be approximately $1,680 per ounce. This assumes a $4,500 per ounce gold price, a $60 per ounce silver price and a $5 per pound copper price. And for every $100 increase in gold price, we expect a $6 increase in our all-in sustaining costs due to taxes, royalties and profit-sharing payments. Beyond the macroeconomic impacts, the year-over-year change is primarily driven by the reasons we addressed on our third quarter call, including lower gold production from planned mine sequencing, changes in inventory at multiple sites and the timing shift of sustaining capital from 2025 to 2026. But without the $150 million shifting from 2025, we now expect sustaining capital of about $1.95 billion in 2026. Of that, roughly 52% is weighted to the second half of the year, primarily related to tailings work at Boddington and Cadia to support production capacity and future mine life as well as the advancement of the ventilation work at Tanami, which is expected to be completed this year. Turning to development capital. We expect to invest about $1.4 billion in 2026 as we advance our major projects in execution, continue the feasibility study work at Red Chris and progress the mine life extensions at Lihir and Cerro Negro. We expect 55% of total spend to be weighted to the second half of the year, primarily due to the start of the work on the Lihir nearshore barrier. We also expect a modest step-up in exploration and advanced project spend to about $525 million this year as we continue to invest in value-creating near our existing assets, including Brucejack, Ahafo South and Merian. Reclamation spend for 2026 is expected to be around $850 million, in line with 2025, primarily related to the construction of water treatment plants at Yanacocha, which are expected to be completed in 2027. Once complete, we expect total reclamation spend to return to more normal levels of between $300 million and $400 million in 2028. In the first quarter of 2026, we expect to make over $1 billion of tax payments, primarily due to accruals made in 2025. As a result and in addition to normal working capital seasonality, we expect first quarter free cash flow to be lower than the fourth quarter of 2025. Looking ahead, our longer-term production growth profile is supported by several clear and executable drivers. The continued ramp-up of Ahafo North, delivering new low-cost ounces beginning this year, the completion of the Boddington stripping campaign in 2026, enabling access to higher gold and copper grades beginning in 2027, the completion of the Tanami Expansion 2 in the second half of 2027 as planned, the ongoing development of the Cadia panel caves extending mine life into the middle of this century and access to low-cost ounces at Lihir following the completion of the nearshore barrier, extending mine life well into the 2040s. Together, these opportunities provide a clear path to renewed production growth, supported by disciplined capital allocation and a portfolio designed to deliver value through the cycle. I will now turn the call over to Peter Wexler to walk through our enhanced capital allocation framework.

PW
Peter WexlerInterim CFO and Chief Legal Officer

Thank you, Natascha, and hello, everyone. Our capital allocation priorities and commitment to discipline remain unchanged and supported by our focus on maintaining financial strength and flexibility, reinvesting in our business to ensure long-term sustainable free cash flow growth on a per share basis and returning capital to shareholders in a consistent and predictable manner. With that in mind, our enhanced capital allocation framework begins with net cash from operations and then prioritizes that cash be allocated first to sustaining capital and our dividend, which are intended to be commitments that will remain consistent throughout the commodity and investment cycle. Second, cash will be allocated to development capital and our balance sheet targets, which may flex based on our needs and priorities. Third, excess cash available after these priorities are met will be allocated to share repurchases. Starting with the two priorities designed to be consistent through the cycle. We will continue to allocate free cash flow to strengthen the longevity and integrity of our portfolio through targeted investments in critical infrastructure, which may entail elevated sustaining capital over the next few years as we work to maximize the long-term value of our portfolio. We will also pay a sustainable cash dividend of $1.1 billion per year, creating significant per share growth potential for multiple metrics as ongoing share repurchases continue to reduce our overall share count. For the fourth quarter 2025, we have declared a dividend of $0.26 per share, reflecting the per share growth potential embedded in this new approach. Following these consistent commitments, development capital spend and our net cash position may vary over time to reflect portfolio needs and broader macroeconomic conditions. We will invest development capital to advance our current projects and prepare for the next phase of growth with a clear focus on responsibly advancing our highest return opportunities while maintaining strict capital discipline and a clear commitment to value creation. At the same time, we will maintain a resilient balance sheet, anchored by a $1 billion net cash target plus or minus $2 billion and underpinned by a minimum cash balance of $5 billion. This provides the flexibility to return capital to shareholders while funding our capital programs through the commodity price cycles and driving sustainable production growth and operational efficiency. Once these priorities are achieved, we intend to deploy excess cash on a ratable basis to share repurchases. This approach is expected to drive sustained per share growth in our dividend and provide shareholders with greater exposure to the strong free cash flow generated from our portfolio, even with the recent increase in our share price. Our shares represent an exceptional value given our world-class portfolio of long-life operations and our deep pipeline of gold and copper projects. With that, I'll turn it back to Natascha for closing remarks.

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Thank you, Peter. In closing, 2025 was a year of execution and follow-through as we achieved our full year guidance, finished the year strong with a solid financial position, optimized our cost structure, advanced project capability, delivered meaningful exploration success and returned capital to shareholders, reinforcing the solid foundation we have built and the potential of this organization. Building on that, we are well positioned to drive margin expansion and generate robust free cash flow from our world-class portfolio of operations, projects and exploration opportunities. Our scale, asset quality and project optionality allow us to capture upside in favorable markets while remaining flexible through the commodity cycle. And finally, we are anchored by a resilient balance sheet and a disciplined capital allocation framework, which has enabled us to implement our enhanced approach to return capital, delivering predictable and sustainable returns to shareholders with a clear path to per share growth. As we look ahead to the rest of 2026, while we are operating in a rapidly evolving geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, our confidence comes from a clear understanding of our portfolio, a disciplined, responsible approach to investment, focused on delivering results and long-term value for our shareholders. Just before I turn to Q&A, I want to briefly address the recent announcement by our Nevada Gold Mines joint venture partner. At this time, the only information available to us is what has been publicly disclosed and as stated in our recent press release. Our primary focus remains on working with a managing partner to improve the performance of these assets and generate long-term value for Newmont shareholders. As disclosed in our 10-K, we have issued a notice of default to our joint venture partner related to operational performance and management of Nevada Gold Mines. We do not have any additional information to share at this time and confidentiality provisions in the joint venture agreement prevent further comment on the notice of default. With that said, we look forward to addressing any questions about Newmont's operational and financial performance. I will now hand it back to the operator to open the call for questions.

Operator

Our first question comes from Lawson Winder with Bank of America Securities.

O
LW
Lawson WinderAnalyst

Very solid result. It's great to see such strong performance at the end of the year. I would like to ask about capital expenditures, and I apologize for the siren in the background. It seems there might be potential upside from the Red Chris and Merian projects. Could you provide an update on those two projects and let us know if we should expect higher capital expenditures than what has currently been guided?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Lawson, it was a bit noisy, so let me clarify your question to ensure I understand correctly. You are inquiring about Capital Expenditures and whether they would rise with the Red Chris project and Merian, correct?

LW
Lawson WinderAnalyst

Exactly.

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Thank you, Lawson. We are set to provide more details on the Red Chris project in the second half of the year. Our capital guidance remains at an average of $1.8 billion for sustaining capital and $1.3 billion for development capital, which will be averaged over time. Our capital allocation framework enables us to make decisions regarding value-accretive projects as they arise, and we will be careful in how we allocate capital for further development projects. The Merian project, which Francois mentioned, is certainly a future opportunity we look forward to discussing further later in the year.

LW
Lawson WinderAnalyst

Okay. I look forward to that. And then if I could, just on a separate issue with your JV partner, Nevada Gold Mines, Barrick. Have the two entities had any further discussion on Fourmile and a potential mechanism for vending that into the joint venture? Where does that currently stand?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Lawson, our current discussions have been predominantly around the improvement of the performance of Nevada. And I think a very constructive relationship to work together to improve that performance, which we believe would be in the best interest of all of our shareholders.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Wolfson with RBC.

O
JW
Joshua WolfsonAnalyst

Just going back to the long-term growth targets of 6 million ounces. Is there any time frame that can be disclosed on when that target is expected to be achieved? And maybe what are the larger drivers for that?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Josh, thank you for that question. As I think we've indicated over the last while, we will continue to give you 1-year guidance. We have completed our asset reviews. We just completed all of our long-term plans. And as we conclude this work and it builds to maturity, we will be able to give you a better guidance of what that profile would look like. And we certainly expect to be able to do that towards the end of this year.

JW
Joshua WolfsonAnalyst

Got it. And I guess I can't ask about NGM directly, but maybe indirectly related to some of the speculation in the media about M&A. Could you clarify maybe what the company's views are on M&A today and maybe just how this plays into the current gold price environment?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

That's a great question, Josh. We are quite pleased with our asset portfolio and the projects we have lined up. As we conduct reviews of our assets, we see significant potential within our own portfolio. We continuously evaluate our assets, which is essential. We think it is the right approach. This ongoing assessment allows us to identify valuable opportunities for changes to our portfolio, which we will pursue in a disciplined manner, adhering to our capital allocation principles.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Major with UBS.

O
DM
Daniel MajorAnalyst

First one, just to clarify the capital allocation waterfall you mentioned, should we interpret it to mean that if you exceed the threshold of around $1 billion, we should assume that all free cash flow will be returned to shareholders through buybacks in our models? If so, will this be executed on a quarterly or annual basis?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Thank you for your question, Daniel. Your assumption is correct, which is why we have outlined our cash flow strategy with clear expectations for our cash position, all aimed at maintaining a strong balance sheet. As a reminder, share buybacks will be consistent. Currently, we still have $2.4 billion remaining from our $6 billion approved buyback program, and we will seek Board approval for any additional buybacks as we approach the end of this program.

DM
Daniel MajorAnalyst

Okay. That's clear. And then a follow-up on the cost guidance, you've changed the headline guidance from co-product to byproduct. So on a like-for-like basis, what is the like-for-like for CAS as well?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

We don't provide guidance for CAS, but it would be around $1,430.

DM
Daniel MajorAnalyst

Okay. And then maybe just a follow-up on that cost dynamic. On Slide 16, you provided the drivers of the inflation through the year. If we look at those buckets, inventory change, working capital and volumes, would it be fair to assume those would reverse in the subsequent 1, 2 years?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Yes, Daniel, probably worthwhile to just quickly step through that. In the prepared remarks, we spoke about volume, and I've given you the underlying drivers that will reverse the volume. Sustaining capital, you remember that a portion of that is sustaining capital that we've moved from 2025 into 2026. And we will see an elevated level of sustaining capital whilst we're still busy with Cadia and Boddington tailings. The changes in inventory, you are right, it's predominantly driven this year by the fact that we are treating stockpile material at Peasquito and that we are not adding any stockpile material at Lihir. And then we will see a change at Yanacocha going forward as well, where we're not mining anymore and putting material. So those changes of inventory are purely just a factor of where we are on our normal mining cycle. I think what is important, I want to highlight that our cost applicable to sales has stayed constant year-on-year. And I just want to direct you towards that as well and the work that we've done last year on making sure that we can keep what is in our control on cost stable year-on-year.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tanya Jakusconek with Scotiabank.

O
TJ
Tanya JakusconekAnalyst

I'm going to start, Natascha, by discussing Nevada Gold Mines. I'm curious about your thoughts on the property, especially since you've had some time to assess what needs to be done to enhance shareholder value. Could you share your perspective on what we need to address to increase shareholder value and the timeframe for those efforts?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Thank you for your question, Tanya. I'll begin by addressing it and then let Francois, who led the team involved, add any insights he may have. We appreciate the approach from our joint venture partners with the new leadership aiming to enhance the performance of Nevada Gold Mines. To this end, we have applied the same methodology we utilize for our own operations, focusing on understanding the district's potential and exploring various opportunities. We're considering the entire Nevada operations as a district, looking into immediate and short-term productivity enhancements, just as we've done in Nevada. Francois?

FH
Francois HardyChief Technical Officer

Sure. Thank you, Natascha, and thank you, Tanya, for the question. I think just to build on what Natascha said, the opportunity is to fill the mill effectively and use a portfolio approach to how we do that and also to blend the different types of material that is available there. I think there's also some short-term opportunity in terms of optimizing plans across the portfolio rather than on a site-by-site basis. But those are probably the main drivers for our potential there at NGM.

TJ
Tanya JakusconekAnalyst

And sorry, the implementation, how long do you think all of this takes?

FH
Francois HardyChief Technical Officer

Yes. Look, it's an ongoing partnership at the moment with our JV partners. We did a review in December, and we continue to work through the action plan accordingly.

TJ
Tanya JakusconekAnalyst

Okay. And then my second question on still on Nevada Gold Mines. Just want to confirm, I understand that you have on, I guess, February 3, a notice of default to Barrick. Can you just provide us just the process from this default and how we go forward and if it's not resolved? I just want to know the proceedings of what happens. I know there's a time period of where you try to resolve it. And if not, there's a court. I'm just trying to understand the timing of that and if the court is in Nevada, if there's no resolution.

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Thank you, Tanya. I'm going to hand that question over to Peter Wexler.

PW
Peter WexlerInterim CFO and Chief Legal Officer

Thank you, Tanya, for your question. You are correct that you have access to the agreement, which has been publicly filed and outlines the timelines for resolving any disputes between the partners as well as the jurisdiction for those decisions. You have all of that information available to you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Hugo Nicolaci with Goldman Sachs.

O
HN
Hugo NicolaciAnalyst

Two questions from me, please. Look, the first one, I appreciate the emphasis on share repurchases as the key use of excess operational cash flow, but it appears that some of the more medium to longer-term growth projects seem to have lost their emphasis a little bit such as the Red Chris cave and indefinitely deferring Yanacocha sulfides and some of the other resources like NovaUni n, Norte Abierto, Galore Creek, Conga, Laurentina, Wafi-Golpu, to name a few, they don't seem to be priorities for this decade. Do you see room for further divestments of resources from the portfolio? Or conversely, should we take the comment that you're exploring more opportunities in the region around Yanacocha that you're actually still acquisitive from here?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Yes, there’s a lot to unpack in that question. First, we have intentionally built this portfolio of assets with the goal of developing and growing it. It is important to emphasize that we will do this in a disciplined manner as outlined in our capital allocation framework. Regarding your question about Peru, it is still central to our portfolio. The decision to walk away from the Yanacocha Sulfides project should not be interpreted as a negative sign for the Conga project in Peru. As I mentioned earlier, we have completed the asset reviews and are developing the profile moving forward; all these projects are currently under review. We have a clear framework for evaluating these projects to sequence them appropriately. The Red Chris project specifically gained insights from the unfortunate incident we experienced last year with the decline failure, which highlighted opportunities for design improvements. There’s no implication other than that there is room for design enhancement at Red Chris.

HN
Hugo NicolaciAnalyst

Got it. And then a follow-up then maybe on costs. Great to see the cost savings initiatives you worked on last year coming through. Are you able to just provide some more detail on the magnitude of those cost savings that are hitting that 2026 outlook number? And then any further cost-out targets you're looking to try and deliver this year?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Yes, there are a couple of perspectives on this, Hugo. Firstly, as mentioned earlier, the costs associated with sales remained stable year-on-year, effectively countering inflation. Additionally, the savings we achieved allowed us to decrease costs by $100 per ounce. This implies that our all-in sustaining cost would have been $100 per ounce higher without those savings. I also want to highlight the reduction in general and administrative expenses. In our earlier remarks, we noted a 21% reduction in G&A compared to our guidance, and you'll observe that our G&A figures are consistent with last year’s. These are a few key indicators to consider. Furthermore, through debt repayment and share repurchases, we have realized a cost reduction of approximately $230 million from these two actions. Moving forward, we identified two primary areas for cost reduction: headcount and non-headcount. The headcount reduction has been finalized, and our ongoing efforts in operational productivity and discipline focus on further non-headcount reductions. We have made considerable strides in integrating these savings into our cost structure.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Anita Soni with CIBC.

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AS
Anita SoniAnalyst

I just wanted to ask about the Tanami expansion too. Just seeing the total spend to date is about $1.3 billion, and you're spending about $350 million this year. And the project total is $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion with still a significant amount of time to go. So will you hit that $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion? Or will you be near the upper end or slightly above that?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

We are right on track to hit those targets, Anita.

AS
Anita SoniAnalyst

I have a quick question regarding the capital allocation framework. You mentioned a net cash position of $1 billion, but I see a range of plus or minus $2 billion. I think someone else noted plus or minus $1 billion as well, so I’d like to clarify that. It seems like a pretty wide range. How do you decide to hold onto an extra $2 billion in cash instead of using it for share buybacks at this time?

PW
Peter WexlerInterim CFO and Chief Legal Officer

Anita, that's a very good question. That was a very disciplined approach by the Board to take a look at the ability for the company to withstand volatility across commodity cycles and ensure that our fixed dividend is always payable and we can meet our commitments. It can flex up and down depending on where we are in both the cost cycle, the price cycle as well as the other needs for some of the nearshore projects that we might want to execute on that would be cost accretive with our financial discipline fully in focus. So that's how it was arrived. It was a very thoughtful process with the Board of Directors to ensure the long-term resiliency of the company.

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

And Anita, it is $1 billion plus or minus $2 billion. So it is clearly set out in Slide 10. So the detail is really set out there for your reference.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Morgan with Barrenjoey.

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DM
Daniel MorganAnalyst

My question is gold and copper at all-time highs, you have some of the best assets in the industry. Is there an opportunity to do a bit more on debottlenecking, brownfield expansion? Is this something that should be worthy of greater consideration? I mean if I look at a lot of the messages today, you've got a new capital allocation strategy, which appears to speak to a focus on returning cash rather than growth. Can you just talk about that?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Thank you, Daniel, for your relevant question. We continuously evaluate our production to ensure it remains sustainable throughout the cycle. This is an important consideration. We are also exploring short-term opportunities, particularly at Yanacocha, where we plan to make additional cuts in the pits. Our focus is on opportunities that require low capital investment, as higher investments can lead to delays. Low capital investment allows for quicker market entry. We must also consider constraints such as tailings dam capacity, as these factors impact cost and time for long-term tailings management, which is pivotal to our economic evaluation. Additionally, there are no constraints with our processing plant, so we are keen to pursue every opportunity that allows us to bring products to market quickly and with low risk. You raised a very good point.

DM
Daniel MorganAnalyst

Are there potential assets in your portfolio that have opportunities for debottlenecking, where there is a plant that allows for capital-efficient expansion or has sufficient tailings? What assets should we consider for growth beyond Red Chris?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Daniel, you're now talking just brownfield expansion, right?

DM
Daniel MorganAnalyst

Correct, correct.

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

We are actively pursuing the underground development at Ahafo South that complements our exploration efforts. At Ahafo North, we see the potential to replicate our successes, presenting a clear opportunity. In Lihir, we have just completed 14A, allowing access to high-grade ore, while the nearshore barrier will facilitate further high-grade material access. Tanami also presents opportunities as we finalize our work there. Additionally, at Brucejack, we are considering slightly larger stope sizes to capture more value despite the lower grade surrounding the current stope sizes, and we have the necessary capacity in our plant and tailings dam. In Argentina, we are moving forward with an open pit at Cerro Negro, which we expect to start mining by the end of the year. Lastly, at Cadia, we expect PC2-3 to be fully operational by year-end, with PC1-2 closely following. There are numerous opportunities we are exploring, some already mentioned and others not yet highlighted.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Martin Pradier with Veritas Investment Research.

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MP
Martin PradierAnalyst

My first question is related to Newmont and the relationship with Barrick. So there is this news about you having a Right of First Refusal. Could you confirm that you have that Right of First Refusal? And what does it mean? Can Barrick do an IPO without your consent? Or that will be violating the agreement?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Thanks, Martin. Peter Wexler will take your call.

PW
Peter WexlerInterim CFO and Chief Legal Officer

Thank you, Martin, for the question. The rights for both parties are spelled out in the agreement. We don't have any other information than you do on the IPO and anything else would be a theoretical exercise. So we'll let you and as I noted to Anita to review the agreement and make that determination for yourself.

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Yes. About $78 million.

MP
Martin PradierAnalyst

Okay. And in terms of Yanacocha, how much is in book value of Yanacocha still there? I mean I know you're stopping the development and you did some impairment, but I'm assuming there is quite a bit more there in the book value.

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

So on sulfides, book value was in the order of $78 million, Martin, and Conga is in the order of about $900 million.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Levi Spry with UBS.

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LS
Levi SpryAnalyst

Just one quick one back to Tanami. Can you just confirm the status there currently? And what's imputed in your guidance for this year and the rest of the ramp-up?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Sorry, Levi, I don't think we've heard you properly. Would you mind repeating?

LS
Levi SpryAnalyst

What's happening right now on site at the Tanami and what's imputed in your guidance this year and next?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Okay. Levi, I assume you are inquiring about the fatality we experienced. Thanks for that, Martin. I want to clarify your question. The operational side of Tanami has been active again just four days after the incident. We shut down the entire site following the incident to ensure all our colleagues received support through our Employee Assistance Program. Our focus was on maintaining safety in operations without distracting attention. Operations are now fully back up and running. We halted all work on shaft infrastructure, but development of the underground ventilation infrastructure has returned to normal. We will resume work on the shaft infrastructure once we complete our internal investigation, understand the root cause of the incident, and ensure it doesn't recur. Our guidance reflects the normal production levels at Tanami.

Operator

Our final question for today will come from the line of Adam Baker with Macquarie.

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AB
Adam BakerAnalyst

I'm just wondering from a corporate perspective, how you considered to lift your reserve and resource assumptions, noting that your resource gold price assumption is now $2,000 an ounce and your reserves at $1,700 an ounce. Why did you determine to do this? Do you think this is still too conservative? And I guess, how did the team land on that number?

NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Thank you, Adam. I'll ask Francois Hardy to answer that question.

FH
Francois HardyChief Technical Officer

Thank you for your question, Adam. We have a thorough process for defining our gold price assumptions, considering various market indicators and trends. Typically, we align closely with the 3-year trailing average. When we set our 2026 gold price assumption for reserves, we were just above 80% of the 3-year trailing average, where we typically like to be in the low to mid-80s. Since then, the price has increased significantly. We believe that our approach is not too conservative. We carefully analyze our overall portfolio and structure our long-term mine plans accordingly. At this point, the $2,000 figure is appropriate for us, but we continually assess short-term opportunities. It’s important to note that the assumptions we make for mine plans and reserves are two distinct numbers that we optimize against.

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Natascha Viljoen for any closing remarks.

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NV
Natascha ViljoenCEO

Thank you so much, operator, and it's still Natascha Viljoen here. And thank you for everybody for joining our call today and looking forward to our next quarterly call. Thank you.

Operator

That concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect your lines.

O