ON Semiconductor Corp
ON Semiconductor is driving energy efficient electronics innovations that help make the world greener, safer, inclusive and connected. The company has transformed into our customers’ supplier of choice for power, analog, sensor and connectivity solutions. The company’s superior products help engineers solve their most unique design challenges in automotive, industrial, cloud power, and Internet of Things (IoT) applications.
Free cash flow has been growing at 50.0% annually.
Current Price
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$79.13
22.5% overvaluedON Semiconductor Corp (ON) — Q1 2020 Earnings Call Transcript
AI Call Summary AI-generated
The 30-second take
ON Semiconductor's business was significantly hurt by the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter. Factories were shut down, hurting their ability to make and ship products, and customer demand fell sharply, especially from car companies. Management is cutting costs and believes business will start to recover in the second half of the year.
Key numbers mentioned
- Q1 2020 revenue was $1.278 billion.
- Q1 2020 non-GAAP earnings per share was $0.10.
- Q1 2020 gross margin was 31.5%.
- A period charge for factory underutilization was approximately $19 million.
- 2020 capital expenditure is expected to be approximately $425 million.
- Cash and cash equivalents at quarter end was $1.982 billion.
What management is worried about
- Demand from the automotive end market has been impacted severely due to the closure of manufacturing plants and extremely challenging global macroeconomic conditions.
- We will likely continue to face operational and logistical challenges due to government mandates.
- Demand from the US and Europe has significantly softened due to a pause in most economic activities because of government-mandated quarantines.
- Demand from smartphone and consumer end markets continues to be soft due to a massive slowdown in global macroeconomic activity.
- The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected our operations and impacted our ability to supply products to many of our customers.
What management is excited about
- We now expect to begin initial production at our 300-millimeter fab in the middle of 2020, and the results and yields of initial wafer runs have been spectacular.
- Our momentum for Silicon Carbide and silicon power products for electric vehicles continues to increase at a rapid pace.
- We expect our 5G infrastructure to grow at a robust pace quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter.
- We are seeing good strength in a few end markets in the second quarter, most notably, activity in the industrial end market appears to be strong across most geographies.
- Our server business grew at a very impressive rate year-over-year as corporations rushed to augment their IT infrastructure to support a remote workforce.
Analyst questions that hit hardest
- Ross Seymore — Analyst on near-term bookings and guidance vs. peers. Management responded by highlighting their unique supply constraints and asserting that demand is exceeding their ability to service it in Q2.
- Christopher Brett Danely — Analyst on the plan to drive gross margins if revenue stays low. Management responded by mentioning the potential sale of a fab and readiness to take more actions if conditions worsen, without providing a clear structural path.
- Ambrish Srivastava — Analyst on the detailed bridge for gross margin between Q1 and Q2. Management gave a fragmented answer focused on decremental fall-through and the persistence of underutilization charges, lacking precise quantification.
The quote that matters
The year-over-year decline in revenue was primarily driven by a slowdown in macroeconomic activity and supply constraints resulting from COVID-related government mandates around the world.
Bernard Gutmann — CFO
Sentiment vs. last quarter
This section is omitted as no previous quarter context was provided.
Original transcript
Operator
Thank you, Doranda. Good morning, and thank you for joining ON Semiconductor Corporation’s first quarter 2020 quarterly results conference call. I’m joined today by Keith Jackson, our President and CEO; and Bernard Gutmann, our CFO. This call is being webcast on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.onsemi.com. A replay of this broadcast, along with our 2020 first quarter earnings release, will be available on our website approximately one hour following this conference call. And the recorded broadcast will be available for approximately 30 days following this conference call. The script for today’s conference call and additional information related to our end markets, business segments, geographies, channels, share count and 2020 fiscal calendar are also posted on our website. Our earnings release and this presentation include certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable measures under GAAP are in our earnings release, which is posted separately on our website in the Investor Relations section. During the course of this conference call, we will make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. The words believe, estimate, project, anticipate, intend, may, expect, will, plan, should or similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We wish to caution that such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from projections. Important factors, which can affect our business, including factors that could cause actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements are described in our Form 10-K, Form 10-Qs and other filings with Securities and Exchange Commission. Additional factors are described in our earnings release for the first quarter of 2020. Our estimates or other forward-looking statements may change, and the company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect actual results, changed assumptions or other factors, except as required by law. Given the current restrictions on travel and gatherings due to COVID-19 pandemic, the previously announced Strategic Business Update scheduled for August 18 in New York has been postponed. We will provide you a new date and location for the event as we get further clarity. Now, let me turn it over to Bernard Gutmann, who will provide an overview of our first quarter 2020 results.
Thank you, Parag, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. As is the case with most of our peers, our results for the first quarter of 2020 and outlook for the second quarter have been meaningfully impacted by COVID-19. Although our near-term results have been impacted by the pandemic, we believe that long-term drivers of our business remain intact. We expect to show progress towards our target financial model as global macroeconomic environment recovers and we continue to implement structural changes to drive margin expansion and higher free cash flow. In the face of challenging business conditions, we have taken measures that should strengthen our balance sheet and free cash flow. These steps include the drawdown of approximately $1.17 billion from our revolving line of credit. This step was taken out of an abundance of caution to ensure that we have an adequate level of liquidity, should the global macroeconomic conditions unexpectedly and sharply deteriorate due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, we have taken certain tactical and temporary actions, which should result in cost savings of approximately $50 million throughout the rest of the year. These measures include a reduction in executive salaries and compensation for board members, the suspension of our 401(k) company match program in the U.S., deferral of merit salary and wage increases and staggered furloughs of certain employees for three weeks during the year. The cost savings of $50 million throughout the rest of 2020 are in addition to those from our $115 million restructuring programs announced earlier. We anticipate that our capital expenditures for 2020 will be largely focused on enabling our 300-millimeter fab in East Fishkill. At this time, we expect capital expenditure to be approximately $425 million in 2020. Furthermore, to preserve our balance sheet strength, we do not intend to buy back our shares until business conditions improve. Now, let me provide you additional details on our first quarter 2020 results. Total revenue for the first quarter of 2020 was $1.278 billion, a decrease of 8% as compared to revenue of $1.387 billion in the first quarter of 2019. The year-over-year decline in revenue was primarily driven by a slowdown in macroeconomic activity and supply constraints resulting from COVID-related government mandates around the world. We drastically curtailed operations at a few of our factories to ensure the safety of our employees and to comply with local regulations. GAAP net loss for the first quarter was $0.03 per diluted share as compared to a net income of $0.27 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2019. Non-GAAP net income for the first quarter of 2020 was $0.10 per diluted share as compared to $0.43 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2019. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin for the first quarter of 2020 was 31.5% as compared to 37% in the first quarter of 2019. The year-over-year decline in gross margin was primarily driven by lower revenue and significantly lower levels of factory utilization, as mentioned earlier. As required by GAAP, we recorded a period charge of approximately $19 million due to the significant underutilization of our factory network in the first quarter. This charge also includes the impact of a short strike at our Belgium fab. This strike was related to our announced plan to divest the fab. As utilization of our factory network improves with expected improvement in business conditions, potentially in the second half of the year, we will not be required to take underutilization-related period charges. As a result, we could see a step-function increase in our gross margin. First quarter of 2020 gross margin was further impacted by approximately $3 million of charges as a result of higher logistics and freight costs. Our GAAP operating margin for the first quarter of 2020 was 1.5% as compared to 12.9% in the first quarter of 2019. Our non-GAAP operating margin for the first quarter of 2020 was 6.6% as compared to 15.5% in the first quarter of 2019. The year-over-year decline in operating margin was largely driven by lower revenue and gross margin. GAAP operating expenses for the first quarter were $384 million as compared to $334 million in the first quarter of 2019. First quarter GAAP operating expenses include approximately $31 million associated with restructuring programs announced earlier. Non-GAAP operating expenses for the first quarter were $319 million as compared to $299 million in the first quarter of 2019. The year-over-year increase in non-GAAP operating expenses was primarily due to the acquisition of Quantenna. First quarter free cash flow was $34 million, and operating cash flow was $166 million. During the first quarter, we used approximately $65 million to repurchase 3.6 million shares of our common stock. Capital expenditures during the first quarter were $132 million, which equates to a capital intensity of 10.3%. Given the current macroeconomic environment, we are directing most of our capital expenditures towards enabling our 300-millimeter fab at East Fishkill. As indicated earlier, we expect capital expenditures for 2020 to be approximately $425 million. We exited the first quarter of 2020 with cash and cash equivalents of $1.982 billion as compared to $894 million at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019. At this time, with a cash balance of approximately $2 billion, we are very comfortable with our liquidity position. At the end of the first quarter, days of inventory on hand were 131 days, up by 8 days as compared to 123 days in the fourth quarter of 2019. The increase in days of inventory was driven primarily by lower expected revenue. Distribution inventory increased slightly in terms of weeks of inventory due to lower resales. In terms of dollars, distribution inventory declined quarter-over-quarter. Now, let me provide you an update on the performance of our business units, starting with Power Solutions Group, or PSG. Revenue for PSG for the first quarter of 2020 was $624 million. Revenue for the Advanced Solutions Group, previously known as Analog Solutions Group, for the first quarter was $467 million. And revenue for our Intelligent Sensing Group was $187 million. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Keith Jackson for additional comments on the business environment.
Thanks, Bernard. At the outset, I thank all of our employees for their dedication in supporting our first responders and customers in the face of very challenging conditions. Our employees went well beyond what is required of them to ensure the supply of critical components for ventilators and other medical equipment. In countries where governments instituted lockdown measures to control the spread of the virus, many of our manufacturing and support teams stayed at the factories to ensure supply of critical components to our customers. Safety of our employees is of paramount importance to us. Consistent with that commitment, we have suspended all non-essential travel. Globally, the teams are working remotely in compliance with local rules and are following strict social distancing guidelines in case they are required to visit a work facility. Our IT organization has done an outstanding job of enabling thousands of our employees to work remotely. We are actively supporting local communities by donating medical supplies and personal protective equipment and matching employee donations. We continue to step up on short notice. When the state of California requested one of our customers for a quick turnaround on ventilators, our supply chain and manufacturing teams responded with extreme urgency to provide critical components immediately. These teams, like many others in ON Semiconductor, exemplify the spirit of collaboration and being a good corporate citizen. Despite the current challenges, key secular megatrends and long-term drivers of our business remain intact. In automotive, we expect the key secular trends, such as ADAS, vehicle electrification, and fuel efficiency, will continue along a steep upward trajectory. In industrial, we expect to see acceleration in factory and warehouse automation, robotics, energy efficiency, and personal medical devices. In cloud-power, along with growth in data-centric applications, we expect to see increased spending on servers and communications infrastructure as companies put in place a robust infrastructure to enable a remote and distributed workforce. We believe that the global community should be able to overcome the current health crisis in a timely manner. And we expect business activity to improve soon thereafter. While we are taking measures to mitigate the impact of soft business conditions, our long-term goals and strategy remain unchanged. We are aggressively working to enable our 300-millimeter manufacturing capability. Our product development programs and customer engagement on key strategic projects are continuing as planned. We continue to strengthen our leadership by investing in the fastest-growing segments of automotive, industrial, and cloud-power end markets. We expect that our contact in these will continue to grow at a healthy pace, despite the current crisis. Along with continued execution on our key strategic initiatives, we are making structural and tactical changes to align our business with current conditions and to drive long-term growth in profitability and free cash flow. Our business realignment programs remain on track. We have taken actions to complete the previously announced restructuring programs. These programs should result in the cost savings of approximately $115 million a year. As announced earlier, we should be able to achieve these savings by the fourth quarter of 2020 on a run rate basis. We believe that, with these actions, the company is well positioned for accelerated progress towards our target model as the global macroeconomic environment recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. As mentioned during the previous results conference call, we are making strong progress towards ramping production at our 300-millimeter fab at East Fishkill. At this point, we are tracking significantly ahead of schedule, and we now expect to begin initial production in the middle of 2020. The results and yields of initial wafer runs have been spectacular. Based on our experience thus far with the East Fishkill fab, we are even more confident that transition of production to this fab will be a major inflection point for our manufacturing cost structure as we consolidate our front-end network. Let me now comment on the current business environment. On the demand front, it is a mixed picture. Demand from the automotive end market has been impacted severely due to the closure of manufacturing plants and extremely challenging global macroeconomic conditions. We expect the automotive weakness to continue until automotive manufacturing plants reopen and global production restarts at least at a moderate pace. We are seeing good strength in a few end markets in the second quarter. Most notably, activity in the industrial end market appears to be strong across most geographies. Server and 5G infrastructure-related demand continues to grow at a healthy pace. Demand from smartphone and consumer end markets continues to be soft due to a massive slowdown in global macroeconomic activity. From a geographic perspective, after the slowdown early in the first quarter, demand from China has improved meaningfully. Japan is another area of moderate strength. Demand from the US and Europe has significantly softened due to a pause in most economic activities because of government-mandated quarantines and other regulatory action aimed at reducing the spread of COVID-19. Both in the US and Europe, automotive is an area of conspicuous weakness. It appears that customers are preparing for a recovery in the second half and are placing orders to ensure supply. At this time, we are seeing significantly higher order activity for the second half of the year as compared to that in the first half of the year. The orders are broad-based in terms of end markets, geographies, and channels. During the first quarter, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected our operations and impacted our ability to supply products to many of our customers. These disruptions have continued into the current quarter, and we expect to resolve them by the end of this week. Early in the first quarter, our manufacturing facilities in China were closed for longer than planned for Lunar New Year holidays in compliance with government mandates. Following the extended shutdown, our China factories resumed production and are now running at close to full utilization. Subsequently, in March, our facilities in Malaysia and the Philippines, where a sizeable part of our back-end operations are located, were severely impacted due to lockdown mandates by various governments. Our Malaysia and Philippines manufacturing plants ran significantly below capacity for most of March. Underutilization of these facilities continued in April and into May. Most of our facilities worldwide are expected to be running at required levels of utilization by the end of this week. Now, I’ll provide details of the progress in our various end markets for the first quarter of 2020. Revenue for the automotive market in the first quarter was $439 million and represented 34% of our revenue in the first quarter. First quarter automotive revenue declined 6% year-over-year. The year-over-year decline in the automotive market was primarily driven by the closure of automotive production factories in various parts of the world and supply constraints driven by reduced levels of operation at our partners’ manufacturing facilities. We saw weakness in China automotive and industrial markets earlier in the first quarter, but business activity has since picked up as factories have reopened in China. Currently, we are seeing significant weakness in the US and European automotive markets due to the closure of automotive factories. Based on comments by major automakers, it appears that many European factories are now gradually restarting. In the US, automakers are planning to reopen factories starting in the latter half of May. Based on third-party reports, we expect global light vehicle production units to decline by approximately 20% to 25% year-over-year in 2020. Despite a massive decline in light vehicle production units, we expect semiconductor content in automotive applications to continue to increase at a healthy pace. Key secular megatrends driving increased semiconductor content in automotive applications, such as vehicle electrification, ADAS, fuel efficiency, and LED lighting, remain intact. And we are well-positioned through our technology leadership and customer relationships to capitalize on these trends. During the first quarter, we secured a major design win for ADAS image sensors with a Japanese OEM. This OEM is one of the largest automakers in the world. This win underscores our global leadership in ADAS image sensors and highlights customer confidence in our technology in a high-safety critical application. Our momentum for Silicon Carbide and silicon power products for electric vehicles continues to increase at a rapid pace. With a solid product portfolio of Silicon Carbide devices and modules, we are seeing strong growth in revenue from electric vehicles. At the same time, the breadth and depth of our engagement with leading participants in the electric vehicle ecosystem is expanding very significantly. We expect to see strong revenue growth in our IGBT modules for EV traction inverters as our design wins ramp in China this year. Extension of subsidies for electric vehicles in China until 2022 is likely to be a significant boost for our Silicon Carbide and IGBT business in China. Our power products continue to grow in many automotive applications. Electrification of various vehicle systems to conserve energy and to improve performance is a key driver of the increasing content of power devices in vehicles. During the first quarter, we also secured a major design win for our mid-voltage MOSFETs for 48-volt systems. Revenue in the second quarter of 2020 for the automotive end market is expected to be down steeply quarter-over-quarter due to the closure of most US and European automotive factories for a significant part of the quarter. The Industrial end market, which includes military, aerospace, and medical, contributed revenue of $315 million in the first quarter. The industrial end market represented 25% of our revenue in the first quarter. Year-over-year, our first-quarter industrial revenue declined 12%. This decline was driven by a swift and sharp decline in global industrial activity and supply constraints due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, we continue to make progress towards our key strategic initiatives. In the industrial power segment, momentum for our Silicon Carbide and silicon devices remained robust. We are seeing strong customer interest for our Silicon Carbide devices for fast-charging stations for electric vehicles. During the first quarter, we secured an important design win for our high-voltage super-junction MOSFETs for electric vehicle charging stations. On the medical front, our teams are working very hard to support the medical community in the fight against COVID-19. The entire organization is focused on supporting increased demand for components for critical medical equipment such as ventilators, infusion pumps, patient monitoring systems, cardiac assist systems, and medical imaging equipment. Our engagement with e-commerce customers is growing at a rapid pace, and we expect e-commerce related applications will be a strong driver of our industrial image sensor business. We believe that growth in our e-commerce related business will be driven by increasing e-commerce volumes, increasing warehouse automation, and adoption of delivery robots. Through our early engagement with industry leaders in e-commerce, we have built a strong design win pipeline for our CMOS image sensors for warehouse automation and delivery robots. Revenue in the second quarter of 2020 for the industrial end market is expected to be up quarter-over-quarter, driven by strong recovery in the demand from all regions. The communications end market, which includes both networking and wireless, contributed revenue of $254 million in the first quarter and represented 20% of our revenue during the first quarter. First quarter communications revenue declined 1% year-over-year. The decline was primarily due to weakness in our smartphone-related business. We saw solid year-over-year growth in our infrastructure business, driven largely by 5G. We further solidified our position in the 5G infrastructure market by winning new designs for medium-voltage MOSFETs. Revenue in the second quarter of 2020 for the communications end market is expected to be down quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to softness in the smartphone market. We expect our 5G infrastructure to grow at a robust pace quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter. The computing end market contributed revenue of $136 million in the first quarter. The computing end market represented 11% of our revenue in the first quarter. First quarter computing revenue declined 7% year-over-year, primarily due to our selective participation in the client-related business. Our server business grew at a very impressive rate year-over-year. We experienced better-than-expected results in our server business as corporations rushed to augment their IT infrastructure to support a remote workforce. Our power management products for server processors and IGBTs for uninterruptable power supplies were key drivers of strength in our server business. Revenue in the second quarter of 2020 for the computing end market is expected to be up quarter-over-quarter. We expect growth in both server and client parts of our computing business. The consumer end market contributed revenue of $134 million in the first quarter. The consumer end market represented 10% of our revenue in the first quarter. First quarter consumer revenue declined by 17% year-over-year, and the year-over-year decline was due to broad-based weakness in the consumer electronics market due to the COVID-19 pandemic and our selective participation in this market. Revenue in the second quarter of 2020 for the consumer end market is expected to be down quarter-over-quarter. In summary, COVID-19 has had a sizable impact on both demand for our products and our ability to supply. We expect that, during the second quarter, by the end of this week, our supply capabilities will improve significantly. Based on order patterns, it appears that our customers are planning for a recovery in the second half of the year, and we are encouraged by the gradual resumption of global activity. Despite current challenges due to COVID-19 pandemic, our long-term goals and strategy remain unchanged. We have taken previously announced restructuring actions to optimize our investments and cost structure, and we are well positioned to make accelerated progress towards our target model as the global macroeconomic environment recovers. We continue to work aggressively to enable our 300-millimeter fab in East Fishkill, and we remain on track to start our 300-millimeter production by the middle of this year. Despite the current macroeconomic disruptions, key secular megatrends driving our business remain intact, and we are upbeat about our medium- to long-term prospects. We are focused on the fastest-growing end markets of the semiconductor industry, and with our design wins, we expect that our content in automotive, industrial, and cloud-power applications will continue to grow. Now, I’d like to turn it back over to Bernard for forward-looking guidance.
Thank you, Keith. Before I get into the details, let me highlight the key drivers of the guidance for the second quarter. Our guidance for the second quarter is based on the assumption that the global macroeconomic environment will not further deteriorate due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We will likely continue to face operational and logistical challenges due to government mandates. Also, this is a period of extreme uncertainty and volatility, and future results of our business will not only depend on the course of the pandemic but also on government actions and the pace of recovery in global macroeconomic activity. Therefore, our ability to forecast our business performance is limited, and the range of our guidance for various financial metrics for the second quarter is wider than what we have provided historically. Based on product booking trends, backlog levels, and estimated turn levels, we anticipate that the total ON Semiconductor revenue is expected to be in the range of $1.1 billion to $1.26 billion in the second quarter of 2020. As noted earlier, we will likely continue to face operational and logistical challenges due to government mandates in the second quarter. For the second quarter of 2020, we expect GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin between 29% and 31%. Lower revenue in the second quarter as compared to that of the first quarter is the primary driver of the quarter-over-quarter decline in gross margin for the second quarter. We expect to record marginally lower period underutilization charge in the second quarter as compared to that of the first quarter. We expect total GAAP operating expenses of $340 million to $360 million. Our GAAP operating expenses include amortization of intangibles, restructuring, asset impairments and other charges which are expected to be between $43 million and $47 million. We expect total non-GAAP operating expenses of $297 million to $313 million in the second quarter. We anticipate the second quarter of 2020 GAAP net other income and expenses including interest expense will be in the $42 million to $45 million which includes non-cash interest expense of $9 million to $10 million. We anticipate our non-GAAP net other income and expenses including interest expense will be $33 million to $35 million. Net cash paid for income taxes in the second quarter of 2020 is expected to be $10 million to $13 million. For 2020, we expect cash paid for taxes to be in the range of $50 million to $60 million. We expect total capital expenditures of $80 million to $100 million in the second quarter of 2020. We are currently targeting an overwhelming proportion of our CapEx for enabling our 300-millimeter fab at an accelerated pace. For 2020, we expect total capital expenditures of approximately $425 million. We also expect share-based compensation of $19 million to $21 million in the second quarter of 2020, of which approximately $2 million is expected to be in cost of goods sold and the remaining amount is expected to be in operating expenses. This expense is included in our non-GAAP financial results. Our GAAP diluted share count for the second quarter of 2020 is expected to be 413 million shares based on our current stock price. Further details on share count and earnings per share calculations are provided regularly in our quarterly and annual reports on Form 10-Q and Form 10-K, respectively. With that, I would like to start the Q&A session. Thank you. And, Doranda, please open up the line for questions.
Hi, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a question. I guess, first, on the revenue side of things, can I get a little more color on what you’re seeing in the near-term bookings and how you’re guiding versus that? Because, I guess, the impression I have from your script is more that you’re not seeing as much strength as some of your peers in the very near term but you’re more confident in the back half of the year. And it seems like a bit of a dichotomy where they’re guiding well below currently strong bookings for fear that the macro economy is actually going to weaken further, where your guidance seems to take the opposite tact.
Yeah, interesting comparison. I think the two things that impact that, one, when we’re talking about revenue strength, the impact that we have in the Philippines and Malaysia is perhaps more significant than much of our competition. And so, you’re hearing us talk about supply constraints in the near term. On the demand side, the automotive piece is very significant for us, but it is picking back up for Q3. And so, again, I don’t have any specific comparatives other than to say that what we’ve seen is more demand than we can service in the second quarter. And the rate of that pace is going up significantly in the third quarter. But we think we’ll be able to have all of the supply constraints behind us.
Thanks for that. And then, I guess, my second question would be on the gross margin side of things. It continues to be a source of headwind. I think, directionally, everybody understands why. But the magnitude is bigger than I even thought. So, I guess, kind of, two points on that. Weren’t there a number of one-time issues that hit you in the fourth quarter and first quarter that should have been a bit of a tailwind in the second quarter? And then, as we think about that second half trajectory on gross margin, are there some structural changes that are going to kick in? Or what’s the stair step you’re talking about? Is it just utilization popping up?
Thank you, Ross. So, you’re correct, we did have some one-time items that affected us in Q4. And basically, those have been resolved. We don’t see those anymore, same with the OSA that will go away in Q2. Definitely, as Keith mentioned earlier, we were substantially affected by the abnormally low utilization for the periods in which we had lockdowns in our factories and that caused us to book the abnormal one-time $19 million hit to our gross margin, which we expect will continue maybe a little bit marginally lower, but will continue throughout Q2. Once that goes away, we’re back to eliminating that and gross margin should step up nicely if, obviously, the markets continue behaving. And our fall-through should be pretty nice as we go back to doing that. So, it is primarily the fact that we have had the significant hit to our operations to the supply constraints.
Thank you.
Hey. Thanks, guys. Just to follow up on Ross’ question. So, if the revenue levels don’t get back to 2019 levels for quite some time, what’s the plan to drive to the gross margin target, especially considering the manufacturing capacity you have right now?
Well, we have already announced the intended sale of our Belgium fab, and we will continue doing that fab. And if things continue getting worse, there will be other actions that would be along the same line. We continue to focus on cash and we also - not that much on the gross margin but across the spectrum, we took some temporary actions to shore up our numbers. We had announced the $115 million previously of permanent restructuring actions. And then, we announced this time another $50 million of various tactical actions that will shore up the cash. If conditions continue worsening, we’ll be ready to take more actions.
Thanks, Bernard. And then, as my follow-up, just to go along with the restructuring actions, can you give us a sense of how these things are supposed to trend in terms of OpEx versus cost of goods for the rest of this year? And will there still be some savings next year? Or will you realize all the savings by the end of this year?
For the $115 million that we announced earlier, we expect to achieve the exiting diversity in Q4. It is primarily OpEx driven. There is a little bit - a small piece of it that goes to comps, but most of it is OpEx driven. The $50 million of temporary actions is by nature of being temporary is just between now and the end of the year is about close to $50 million. Heavier focused on OpEx, but there is still a good participation of COGS that will help us.
Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.
Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. Just a question on the supply disruptions and you talked about that was pretty severe in the second quarter. What’s, one, what’s the status of that - I’m sorry, as you go into the second quarter, what’s the status of those supply disruptions? What’s the percentage of your capacity that’s back online? And then, naturally, when you have those supply disruptions, there’s some incentive on the part of customers to layer in some orders they might not necessarily need. What’s your visibility on that? I know it’s always something difficult to judge. But how are you, I guess, judging down the orders that you have to avoid the potential of double ordering?
Yeah. So, the supply disruptions have improved as we got into May. They were still quite severe in April, and we don’t expect to be at full capacity until the end of this week. So, a very sizable part of the second quarter has already been impacted. Relative to the demand things, I will just tell you that the orders we have make sense based on the end market data that we’re getting. We don’t see anything that’s abnormal relative to what’s going on in the end market. So, the areas that are weak are weak in our backlog and the areas that have picked up primarily due to China coming back online are the ones that have picked up.
Okay. Thank you. As a follow-up, with regard to CapEx - and I understand there’s some elevated CapEx right now because of what you’re doing with the Fishkill facility. Can you talk about how long that continues? At what point is the spending on Fishkill over? And then, once that’s the case, what’s a more normalized level of CapEx spending that we should expect when Fishkill is over and presumably as we go into 2021?
So, basically, we have said, once we made the acquisition of this Fishkill that our long-term goal is 6% to 7% on CapEx. We will be moving towards that target as time goes by. I’m not sure it will be exactly at the beginning of 2021, but we’ll be moving towards that as we go in time.
Yes. Thank you. A question on the - this comment about the gross margin stepping up significantly in the third quarter. How are you stepping up? Wanted to kind of discuss that in a little bit more detail, obviously, the underutilization charges will go away. But what else would drive that step-up function? Are you expecting a better mix shift in the third quarter, if auto comes back online? Any other details in terms of what you think will be the drivers for the step-up in margins in the back half of the year?
So, as Keith mentioned earlier, we are seeing better demands for the back half. So, we expect the help from incremental revenue and the fall-through should be pretty nice. We also should be seeing mix as our markets that drive better gross margin should be coming back up particularly on holding.
And in terms of the end markets, you had mentioned that Europe and the US are starting to bring back manufacturing online. This is based on the commentary from those companies that you cited. In terms of tangible evidence, from your perspective, on the automotive side, how would you characterize the orders in automotive as we go into kind of - if you look at the third quarter? And then, also, have there been any delays of more advanced ADAS programs because of the drop in demand? Any thoughts there in terms of the current ADAS programs or the EV programs that are on track?
Yeah. We saw a very steep decline in demand from automotive, as we got through the first quarter and into the first part of the second quarter. That free fall, if you will, has levelled off and is no longer declining. So, that’s certainly a good sign. And then, we have specific requests from our large OEMs, letting us know that they are expecting to have more demand in the second half. And we need to be ready. From demand on things like ADAS and electrification, those continued quite on track. And what we’re seeing is that some companies are using this dislocation in the market to kind of reposition themselves upscale with both their electric vehicles and their ADAS content. So, we’re actually seeing potentially an accelerator in those two parts of automotive, as it recovers.
And just last question on the smartphone side. You mentioned the drop in smartphones is going to be offset partially by 5G infrastructure. There’s been an indication that smartphones are recovering in China. I just wanted to get your thoughts on your - maybe your dollar content opportunity in smartphones, any view there in terms of how we think about the second half.
So, dollar content is around $9 for smartphones. We have indeed seen a pickup in China, but only with the China brands at this stage. But we are expecting to see global brands launching new models in the second half. So, our expectation is that the second half will be much better for smartphones than the first half.
Hi. Sorry about that. I know you guys mentioned some long lead orders that came in for the second half. Just wondering if it’s slanted disproportionately due to automotive or industrial or how you’re seeing that.
Yeah. It’s very broad in the second half. Demand there is looking good. We just mentioned smartphones look like they’re going to be up. Automotive is up from a very low number so it’s - I don’t want to get too excited. But the industrial piece continues to build. And our server and cloud business continues to show great strength. So, China is certainly the strongest pickup there. But we really never saw much of a decline outside of China. So, it continues to be healthy.
Hi, everyone. I understand we may not be close to any mergers and acquisitions, but it's been a priority for you in the past. You've discussed pursuing more strategic options or higher gross margin. Considering the underutilization and your expanding footprint, have you started to believe you need to increase volume across your infrastructure? Also, could you share any other strategies you might employ regarding underutilization? You've mentioned scaling down your older footprint, but what about increasing internal and external volume? Thank you.
So, I guess, two questions on that. From an M&A perspective, we’re not sure this is a prudent time. And so, really nothing new to report there. And as far as utilizing the network, we clearly are looking at bringing more manufacturing inside. Those are actions that are underway and should help us in the second half of this year. Yes. So, a couple of commentary, one, the products we’re putting into EFK first are the power products supporting most of our automotive and cloud-power type applications. And so, the good news is those volumes continue to grow. And so, we feel pretty good about that. We have intended to ramp that and not empty other factories, and we continue to think that we’ll be able to keep our factories full while ramping EFK. And from on track or ahead of schedule perspective, it’s roughly looking like we’re about six months in advance of where we thought we would be, and we work with customers that are specifically growing power content with us to qualify those factories and start running here in a matter of weeks.
Yeah. Thanks for that. And I’ll just ask a follow-up to the last question. So, if you’re getting good engagement with customers on East Fishkill, what would you expect the percent of ON’s production to be out of that facility exiting this year? And if you have another six quarters under the belt exiting calendar 2021, what’s the percent of total sales that could come out of East Fishkill with its lower cost footprint than what you have elsewhere?
So, I don’t actually have prepared quarter-by-quarter breakdown for you, Craig. We talked about having the ability to do about $2 billion of revenue from the factory. That won’t happen in 2020 or even 2021. But by the time we get to 2023, we should be able to do that.
Okay. That’s helpful. And then, auto obviously has been a big focus on this call as it has many others, given the impact to units this year. As we look at auto, I think we’re probably in the second quarter going to be tracking about $120 million below prior highs. How much of that volume can be made up with increased content over the next year or two, Keith? And how much of what had been automotive volumes in the factory network will need to be absorbed by things like cloud power or other growth initiatives or areas where you’ve got secular content in? Thank you.
Yeah. So, I mentioned before the things we’re watching carefully are the electric vehicle ramps in China. They put back incentives to focus there. The content, as you know, is several hundred dollars higher in electric vehicles. And so, the simple answer is, if they really ramp mostly electric as we go forward in China, there’s a substantial opportunity to overcome any unit losses. And then, ADAS, similar kinds of situation there. They’re becoming consumers who are more safety conscious. And so, we’re seeing the contents there go up $20, $30 a car at a time. And so, I think the question will be, as we come out of this downturn, what the strategy is going to be? And right now, at least, we’re looking at more electric vehicles and more focus on safety. So, we think most of that, if not all of that, will be offset as we exit this year.
Thanks very much. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to come back to the gross margin side, Bernard. And I’m sorry you were cutting out when you were answering the question, at least for me. I wanted to understand the bridge between Q1 and Q2. So, how much of the costs would go away? How much of it is one-time in nature? And then, kind of, related to the recovery part is you talked about fall-through and you’re also talking about a step-function increase and then there’s a third factor coming in which is your 300-millimeter fab. So, what’s the right way to think about fall-through as margins recover as a result of revenues coming back? That would be helpful. So, A, just kind of help us bridge the gap; and, B, how should we think about fall-through? Thank you.
So, the fall - the bridge for Q1 to Q2 is pretty straightforward. It’s mostly the decremental fall-through of 50% on the revenue going from $1.278 billion to $1.180 billion at the midpoint. The one-off period charges that we saw in Q1 will continue in Q2. Keith mentioned the fact that we had during the month of April continued shelter-in-place mandates, government mandates in most of our locations. And then, we expect to be getting close to being out of that by the end of this week. So, it has had a significant effect in this quarter, which is going to be similar in nature - maybe a tad bit less, but similar in nature to what we had in Q1. That’s the one that when we go into Q3, assuming that there is - that the - all these supplier issues, i.e. the mandates from the government have - would have been eliminated, that approximately $20 million goes away completely as we go into Q3. And then, we have the normal fall-through on whatever revenue comes through. That’s the high level...
And how does fall-through change because 300-millimeter should be helping you? And this is not a question for this year. Obviously, you’re just starting to ramp it. But steady state, how should 300-millimeter have a positive impact for margins?
We expect that the unit costs will improve this year. However, this will depend on how quickly our customers qualify the products, and any significant impact on gross margin is more likely to be realized in the longer term, around 2021 or 2022. We are also taking cues from what others have achieved as they transition to 300-millimeter, and we anticipate similar outcomes for ourselves.
Thanks. Good morning, guys. I just want to go back to the industrial comments and specifically the strength in China. I was wondering if you can give us some more color. I think you mentioned indications of increased automation and robotics. Do you see the current pandemic kind of essentially putting the seeds for a secular change in that industry and to your point seeing that increase in automation, if you can comment? To what level of the demand in China and industrial is coming back to compared to pre-COVID levels?
Yeah. So, first, I’ll talk about trends. We do see this pandemic as accelerating people’s thoughts and investment in automation. And so, we are seeing that industrial automation piece pick up quite nicely. And we think that, that will be a continued trend because, again, just from a rational business perspective, the biggest impact we’ve had is on the people sort of the more automation we have, the less expectation for further disruption. But broadly beyond just that secular trend, we do see a pick back up. And the factories closed in the first quarter in China. The orders completely stopped. And what we’re seeing now is just a return to a more normal environment that we had pre-Chinese New Year, so not excessively greater than we had pre-Chinese New Year, but very similar to that.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.