O`Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) — Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Thank you, Matthew. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. During today's conference call, we will discuss our second quarter 2025 results and our outlook for the remainder of the year. After our prepared comments, we will host a question-and-answer period. Before we begin this morning, I would like to remind everyone that our comments today contain forward-looking statements, and we intend to be covered by, and we claim the protection under the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as estimate, may, could, will, believe, expect, would, consider, should, anticipate, project, plan, intend or similar words. The company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements due to several important factors described in the company's latest annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, and other recent SEC filings. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call. At this time, I would like to introduce Brad Beckman.

Thanks, Jeremy. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the O'Reilly Auto Parts second quarter conference call. Participating on the call with me this morning are Brent Kirby, our President; and Jeremy Fletcher, our Chief Financial Officer; Greg Henslee, our Executive Chairman; and David O'Reilly, our Executive Vice Chairman, are also present on the call. It is once again my pleasure to begin our call today by congratulating Team O'Reilly on their performance in the second quarter and the solid results they have delivered in the first half of 2025. Our team's proven ability to provide superior value and excellent customer service drove our second quarter comparable store sales increase of 4.1%. These solid results contributed to a year-to-date comp growth at the high end of our expectations, and we are pleased with our team's ability to generate this level of sales momentum in the first half of 2025. Our second quarter sales growth drove an 11% increase in earnings per share to $0.78 and I'd like to thank our over 92,000 team members for their unwavering commitment to executing our business model at an extremely high level and providing the best customer service in our industry. The composition of our comparable store sales growth in the second quarter was similar to the first quarter with solid contributions from both sides of our business. Our professional business was once again the more significant driver of our sales results with an increase in comparable store sales exceeding 7%, fueled by continued strong ticket count growth. Our teams continue to set the standard for how seamlessly and effectively they partner with and support our professional customers to grow their businesses. Our continued robust share gains in our professional business are a testament to the close relationships we have fostered with our customers and our continued efforts to enhance our service levels to earn a greater share of their spend. DIY was also a contributor to our sales growth in the quarter with a low single-digit comp. From a traffic standpoint, we did see pressure to DIY ticket counts as we exited the quarter in June that resulted in a small decline in DIY ticket count for the full year but we were pleased to see positive overall sales growth in DIY in the quarter, driven by growth in average ticket size. Average ticket continues to be a contributor to our sales growth on both sides of the business, driven by increasing complexity in vehicle repairs. We also saw a modest benefit from effective pricing management in the second quarter. The contribution to our average ticket from same SKU inflation for the second quarter was just under 1.5% and reflects the early stages of the impact of changes in the tariff environment in our industry which I will discuss more in a moment. Turning to the cadence of our sales performance. Results were reasonably steady throughout the second quarter. As I noted previously, our comparable store sales for the quarter landed at the high end of our expectations and we saw this outperformance primarily in the first two months of the quarter. As we remarked on last quarter's call, favorable spring weather supported strong volumes in our business as we exited the first quarter and that momentum continued through April and May. Business normalized somewhat in June but was still in line with plan. The moderation at the end of the second quarter was driven at least in part by minor pressure in hot weather-related categories where we were up against a tough comparison to a strong performance in June last year. On balance, we think weather impacts evened out over the quarter and were ultimately neutral to our full second quarter results but did contribute to some minor differences in the month-to-month cadence. Thus far in July, summer weather has been typical for the season and we have been pleased with the continued solid trends in our business to start the third quarter. From a category perspective, our second quarter results reflected trends similar to what we've seen over the last few quarters. We continue to generate strong performance in maintenance categories, including oil, filters, and spark plugs, and we're also pleased with solid performance in undercar hard part categories, particularly on the professional side of our business. We are encouraged by the resiliency of performance in these categories and believe it reflects favorable vehicle dynamics in our industry as well as continued willingness of consumers to prioritize the care of their existing vehicles. However, we also saw continued softness in discretionary categories in line with trends we have seen over the last year. As we have noted in the past, discretionary products make up a small subset of our total sales, primarily on the DIY side of our business. While not a substantial headwind to our overall results, the continued sluggishness in these categories is an indicator to us that consumers are still remaining cautious and conservative in how they are managing their spend in the current environment. Next, I would like to provide some color on our revised full-year comparable store sales guidance. As noted in yesterday's press release, we updated our guidance from the previous range of 2% to 4% to a range of 3% to 4.5%. It isn't typical for us to revise our guidance to a range of 1.5% at this stage of the year, but we feel this update is appropriate for a few reasons. The midpoint of our revised comp range represents a 75 basis point increase over our previous midpoint and is in line with trends we have seen in our business in the first half of the year. The increase in our guidance range at the top end also reflects the potential for incremental benefit we could realize from the effective price management that we talked about earlier as we navigate the challenging tariff environment. As I previously noted, we have begun to see some incremental same-SKU benefit filter into our numbers from industry-wide pricing actions spurred by the first round of tariffs. Brent will discuss more of this in detail during his prepared comments, but we continue to be successful in working with our supplier partners to respond to and mitigate the impacts from tariffs. Likewise, we have begun to see industry adjustments in response to the incremental pressures to product acquisition costs and anticipate our industry will continue to behave rationally. However, in establishing our outlook for the remainder of 2025, we remain cautious as to the uncertainty of the timing, magnitude, and ultimate impact of changes in the pricing environment in our industry. We are also cautious concerning the potential adverse impact to consumers and their resulting response in the face of rising prices. Our stance is driven in part by our current assessment of the health and confidence of consumers. We continue to view the consumer as relatively healthy, buoyed by strong employment and wage rate growth. We also believe the strong value proposition of maintaining and repairing an existing vehicle, coupled with the high quality of vehicles, creates a very compelling incentive for our customers to prioritize their auto part spend. However, as I noted earlier, we also think that consumers in our industry remain cautious in a very uncertain environment and are remaining conservative in the management of their overall household spend. Should consumers face rapid broad-based price increases in the back half of the year, we could encounter short-term reactions, particularly by lower-income DIY consumers who may look to ease pressure in the face of these shocks by cutting back on spending wherever possible. As a result of these factors, our forward-looking guidance expectations do not incorporate a significant net benefit from tariff-induced inflation beyond the modest price changes we have already seen thus far. While we are cognizant that these macroeconomic factors could cause volatility in our industry in the remainder of 2025, we are also confident the disruptions to consumer demand will be short-lived. Over the course of many economic cycles, consumers in our industry have proven their resilience in responding to short-term shocks, whether caused by tariff-driven inflation, spikes in gas prices, or other factors. The core fundamental drivers of demand in our business remain very solid, underpinned by the increasing age and quality of the vehicle fleet and the growth of the North American car park and the corresponding steady annual increases in miles driven. We also view periods of acute challenges in our industry as opportunities to leverage our strategic advantages and enhance our competitive positioning. We currently hold just a fraction of the addressable market share in a fragmented industry. Our primary growth vehicle is centered on our ability to provide constantly improving value to our customers to earn a larger share of auto parts demand. This relentless focus on excellent customer service is imperative every day in each of our markets regardless of the broader macro conditions. In challenging environments, our teams of professional parts people dig even deeper to distinguish the value we provide to our customers, knowing there are always more market share gains to be earned. Before I wrap up and turn the call over to Brent, I wanted to call out the update to our diluted earnings per share guidance. As noted in our press release yesterday, we have updated our EPS guidance to a range of $2.85 to $2.95. We were pleased to complete our Board and shareholder-approved 15-for-1 stock split in the second quarter. So this quarter's press release is the first reporting period where we provided EPS results and guidance factoring in the increased share count. At the midpoint, our updated guidance is an increase of approximately 1% from the midpoint of our previous guidance adjusted for the stock split with the increase reflecting our second quarter results and expectations for the remainder of 2025. As I wrap up my prepared comments, I would like to once again thank Team O'Reilly for their strong performance in the second quarter. Now I'll turn the call over to Brent.

Thanks, Brad. Before I dig in further to our results, I would like to echo Brad's comments on the dedication of Team O'Reilly. The sales momentum we have generated in the first half of 2025 is the direct result of the hard work of each of our team members in our stores, distribution centers, and offices, and I want to thank the entire team for their commitment to our customers. I would like to begin my comments this morning by discussing our second quarter gross margin results and our outlook for the remainder of 2025. Over the quarter, our gross margin of 51.4% was up 67 basis points from the second quarter of 2024. In establishing our full-year gross margin outlook, we assumed a slightly lower gross margin rate in the second quarter as compared to the first, third, and fourth quarters, which is typical for the seasonal composition of our product mix and consistent with our results in 2024. So while our second quarter gross margin performance fell in the middle of our full-year guidance outlook, it handily exceeded our expectations for the quarter. Our performance in the quarter was driven by continued strong management of our supply chain environment and solid distribution productivity coupled with the timing benefit from the impact of tariff-related costs and pricing adjustments. On the tariff front, as Brad discussed in his comments, we did begin to see some impact on our business in the second quarter. As we've discussed at length in the past, the process by which we respond to any changes in the acquisition cost environment, including increases spurred by tariff modifications begins with close coordination with our supplier partners to mitigate the impact on our customers. As we have worked through the changing tariff landscape over the last several months, we believe that coordination has been very effective and has allowed us to negotiate appropriate cost increases that do not reflect the full impact of incremental tariff rates while also temporarily delaying the timing of the application of those cost changes where possible. In anticipation of the impact of tariff cost pressures, we closely monitored the pricing environment in our industry as we moved through the second quarter and, where appropriate, made adjustments to selling prices. Our industry has historically been very rational in its response to changing input costs and pricing, and we believe those same dynamics are prevailing in the current environment. Typically, in our industry, we see changes in acquisition costs and any corresponding price movements sync up fairly closely but can sometimes experience temporary timing differences that create short-term headwinds or tailwinds within a quarter. In these instances, we can realize a short-term benefit from the timing of pricing changes that are slightly out ahead of when the corresponding cost increases filter into our income statement. Within the second quarter, we did realize a benefit from this timing dynamic which contributed to our positive gross margin results. As we look to the back half of the year, we aren't currently projecting significant further incremental benefit or pressure to gross margin rates from tariffs but the environment remains fluid, both as it relates to the exact timing and magnitude of any tariff revisions that have yet to be implemented as well as the timing of market responses in our industry. Given the existing tariff landscape and our ongoing work with our supply chain partners, we do anticipate further impacts to acquisition costs and are cautious that we could encounter short-term timing headwinds to gross margin rate in the back half of the year depending on the speed with which our industry digests inflation pressures. Ultimately, we believe these short-term timing differences will even out over the long run and our industry will settle at an equilibrium that is in line with the rational pricing dynamics that have persisted over many cycles in many different environments in the automotive aftermarket. Independent of these tariff-related impacts, we are pleased with our gross margin performance in the quarter and the trends we continue to see in our business. We believe our consistent results despite facing a mix headwind from a faster growth on the professional side of our business reflect continued strong management by our supply chain teams, working closely with our supplier partners. Given our experience thus far in 2024 and 2025 and factoring in that we could see tariff-induced choppiness in gross margin results in the back half of the year, we are leaving our full-year gross margin guidance unchanged at a range of 51.2% to 51.7%. As Brad discussed earlier, we remain cautious as to the potential adverse impact our customers could face from the heightened inflation in the remainder of 2025 but remain confident that we will still be able to profitably earn our customers' business by delivering a strong value proposition driven by our professional parts people and industry-leading parts availability, even in an environment of rising prices. Turning to SG&A. Our second quarter average SG&A per store growth of 4.5% was above our expectations and reflects a combination of the incremental spend to deliver excellent customer service in support of our above-plan sales performance and inflation pressure in our cost structure, particularly in areas more challenging to manage in the short term, such as expenses pertaining to our medical and casualty insurance programs. Based on the inflation pressure we are currently seeing, coupled with our top line outlook for the remainder of the year, we are revising our full-year guidance for average SG&A per store growth to a range of 3% to 3.5%. While the pressures we are seeing have driven SG&A above our expectations, we continue to believe that the initiatives that we are executing and the enhancements to customer service we have been able to generate are integral factors in the market share gains that we are capturing on both sides of our business. As such, we will continue to diligently manage our SG&A spend to prioritize a high standard of excellent customer service and take advantage of the opportunities to fuel growth. Based on our SG&A expectations and projected gross margin range, we continue to expect our full-year operating profit to come within our guidance range of 19.2% to 19.7%. We successfully opened 105 net new stores across the U.S. and Mexico in the first half of 2025. And we continue to be pleased with the performance of our new stores. We continue to see solid growth in greenfield expansion markets, but we are also capitalizing on great growth opportunities across our footprint. As a result, our store growth thus far in 2025 was spread across 34 different U.S. states, Puerto Rico and Mexico. Underpinning our very successful new store expansion efforts are the pivotal investments we continue to make to enhance our industry-leading distribution network. We remain steadfast in our commitment to equipping our store teams with rapid industry-leading access to inventory. To that end, we are excited to announce that we have acquired a facility in Haslet, Texas, a suburb of Fort Worth that will become our 33rd distribution center. This new facility, which we will refer to as our Fort Worth DC, is approximately 560,000 square foot with an expected capacity to serve 350 stores in the South Central United States. These market areas represent some of our most mature markets, while also being strong contributors of highly profitable growth for many years. Even with the relatively high store counts we have in Texas and surrounding markets, we still see tremendous opportunity to continue growing in this part of the country in the future but are running up against constraints with our distribution capacity. The backfill addition of this facility will not only give us additional capacity and enhanced service capabilities in the important Fort Worth metro market but will also free up much needed capacity in surrounding DCs to support growth across the South Central region of the country. We are still in the early innings of development for this new DC, having just acquired the facility with substantial infill work still ahead of us. As a result, we anticipate this distribution center will be in operation in 2027. We are also excited to be nearing the completion of our Stafford, Virginia distribution center. We plan to start transferring stores to be serviced by Stafford at the end of the third quarter with the new facility servicing its initial store base by the end of this year. We could not be more excited about the store development opportunities that these two new facilities will unlock for the company in both the largely untapped Mid-Atlantic region and in strong existing markets in the South Central U.S. As I close my comments, I want to thank Team O'Reilly for their continued dedication to our company's success. Your commitment to providing consistent, excellent customer service to all of our customers each and every day continues to be the key to our long-term success. Now I will turn the call over to Jeremy.

Thanks, Brent. I would also like to begin today by thanking Team O'Reilly for another successful quarter. Now we will take a closer look at our second quarter results and update our guidance for the remainder of 2025. For the second quarter, sales increased $253 million, driven by a 4.1% increase in comparable store sales and an $86 million non-comp contribution from stores opened in '24 and '25 that have not yet entered the comp base. For 2025, we now expect our total revenues to be between $17.5 billion and $17.8 billion. Our second quarter effective tax rate was 22.4% of pretax income, comprised of a base rate of 23.2%, reduced by a 0.8% benefit for share-based compensation. This compares to the second quarter of 2024 rate of 23.2% of pretax income which was comprised of a base tax rate of 23.8%, reduced by a 0.6% benefit for share-based compensation. For the full year of 2025, we now expect an effective tax rate of 22.3%. We expect the fourth-quarter rate to be lower than the other three quarters due to the tolling of certain open tax periods. Also, variations in the tax benefit from share-based compensation can create fluctuations in our quarterly rate. Now we will move on to free cash flow and the components that drove our results. Free cash flow for the first six months of 2025 was $904 million versus $1.2 billion in the first half of 2024. The reduction in free cash flow was primarily the result of the timing of payment for renewable energy tax credits with a higher cash outflow for these payments occurring in the second quarter of 2025 versus the third quarter of 2024. For the full year 2025, our expected free cash flow guidance remains unchanged at a range of $1.6 billion to $1.9 billion. Inventory per store finished the quarter at $833,000 which was up 9% from this time last year and up 4% from the end of 2024. Broad-based inventory availability is critical to the success of our business and we have been pleased with the investments we have made in inventory in 2025. Our projected increase in 2025 in average inventory per store remains unchanged at 5%. I also wanted to touch briefly on our AP to inventory ratio. We finished the second quarter at 127%, which was down from 128% at the end of 2024, but slightly above our expectations. For the remainder of 2025, we expect to see continued moderation resulting from our planned incremental inventory investment across our store and distribution network and currently expect to finish the year at a ratio of approximately 125%. Moving on to debt. We finished the second quarter with an adjusted debt-to-EBITDAR ratio of 2.06x as compared to our end of 2024 ratio of 1.99x with an increase in adjusted debt partially offset by EBITDAR growth. We continue to be below our leverage target of 2.5x and plan to prudently approach that number over time. We continue to be pleased with the execution of our share repurchase program. And during the second quarter, on a split-adjusted basis, we repurchased 6.8 million shares at an average share price of $90.71 for a total investment of $617 million. We remain very confident that the average repurchase price is supported by the expected discounted future cash flows of our business, and we continue to view our buyback program as an effective means of returning excess capital to our shareholders. As a reminder, our EPS guidance that Brad outlined earlier includes the impact of shares repurchased through this call but does not include any additional share repurchases. Before I open up our call to your questions, I would once again like to thank the entire O'Reilly team for their continued hard work and dedication to providing consistently high levels of service to our customers. This concludes our prepared comments. At this time, I would like to ask Matthew, the operator to return to the line, and we will be happy to answer your questions.

My first question is regarding the tariff situation we began discussing 2 or 3 months ago. At that time, we anticipated various outcomes related to pricing. Given the recent changes in tariff rates, and your current discussions with suppliers, could you share whether the pressure on pricing is now similar, higher, or lower compared to when you started this journey a few months ago, without disclosing specific figures?

Yes, Simeon, this is Brent. I can start and these guys can add in. Yes, I would just tell you that the backdrop is the consumer. Brad talked about that in his prepared comments. And as far as defining as the pricing pressure greater or less than it was a few months ago, it's really hard to say. The consumer, we know at the lower end is pressured right now and has been for some time. What I would tell you is what we continue to see is we've got a very rational industry, we've got a very rational history of these kind of things in the past, certainly not dealt with some of the headlines on tariffs that we're dealing with now. It's a little bit uncharted. But if you go back a few years and look at how things behaved back in the 2018 time frame, the cost eventually do get to the price at some point in the process. Our goal is to minimize any impact to our consumer because we know they're under pressure. So we work very closely with our supplier partners. It's really hard to gauge, is the pressure greater now than it was a few months ago. I think the pressure is what the pressure is. We're going to continue to do what we do and do everything we can to keep the prices reasonable for our consumers and be fair with our suppliers as we work through this.

Yes, Simeon, just briefly. I think Brent summed it up really well. Reflecting on the beginning of the year and everything that we've experienced, along with what the consumer and our industry, including broader retail, have gone through over the past six to twelve months, I would say we’re not surprised. There’s a similar pressure relating to input costs and retail pricing that we anticipated. The pressure on consumers is also similar. We’re trying to manage the remainder of the year while considering potential opportunities, but we need to be cautious, as there could be increased pressure on consumers depending on how things develop.

Okay. Fair enough. And then the back half guide, mathematically tells us that SG&A dollar growth is going to taper a bit from the run rate. That's the math. If it doesn't, if it surprises us at the upside, what would be the cause of it? And then Brad, the age-old spending versus investment versus return. Like how do you think about that? Should there be a higher rate of SG&A going forward?

Yes, I mean, it's a fair and important question. And if you don't mind, I'm going to let Jeremy talk through kind of our thoughts to start out, and then I'll come back to more of the kind of short- to long-term question.

Yes, that's a valuable question to highlight. Looking at our updated guidance, we anticipate that for the full year, per store SG&A growth will finish in the range of 3% to 3.5%. It's important to note that this includes a comparison benefit as we approach the fourth quarter where we had to account for a charge in reported numbers. Excluding the impact of that comparison, we could see per store growth more in the 3% to 4% range for the latter half of the year. This projection reflects the spending patterns we observed in the first half and some unique pressures that occurred during that time. In response to your question, factors that could further pressure us moving forward could include ongoing inflation or cost-driven challenges within our expense structure, which can be difficult to manage. Additionally, as we assess our business dynamics, there are opportunities to stimulate top-line growth, even in a potentially disruptive market environment. We are committed to effectively servicing our customers during periods when they rely on us to provide excellent service and solve problems. Our goal is to manage the business in a way that offers high value to our customers and positions us well to capture market share and drive growth. These factors might contribute to variations in SG&A from our expectations as we progress. We have taken into account what we know so far in updating our outlook, but these elements could create variability moving forward.

Yes. Well said, there is some inflationary pressure additional to what we saw a quarter ago and two quarters ago. But the bottom line is, Simeon, we're in this for the long haul. We're very proud at O'Reilly, as you know, of the operating profit rate that we've been able to establish and grow over a long period of time. We still feel confident in the mid to long term we can continue to create leverage but we're going to do that through share gains. We're going to do that through the fact that we have 10% share in the U.S. and even less in Mexico and Canada with these new platforms. And we feel like these years, last year, and even this year continue to show us that there's some volatility with some of our competitors, mainly on the independent WD type side. And we're going to continue to play from a position of strength. We're going to make solid, decisive long-term decisions. In any of these quarters, as you know as well as anyone, there's things that we could have done to bring in the quarter, but it wouldn't have been the right thing to do for the mid- and long term, and that's what we're focused on.

Well done, good luck.

Brad, has the cost of doing business within the auto aftermarket simply increased perhaps as a result of a lot of the weaker marginal competitors having already gone away. So the industry is left with stronger players, and it's more expensive to gain that share. And that's caught O'Reilly a bit off guard, has it been a surprise. And that's why these SG&A dollars have been consistently under expected and have come in a bit heavier than anticipated? And if that's the case, how does the model need to change in order to navigate through this moving forward?

Michael, fantastic question. So really kind of back to a couple of points that we made on Simeon's question I think the direct answer to your question, quite frankly, is a little bit of both. Is there going to be times, like it always has been in our industry where we do feel like expense pressure is understandable and needed along with investments. I think there's going to be cycles like that. And I think to some degree, we're in a cycle like that where we are going to see the cost of doing business for the long term, have pressure on it. What we don't think has changed to kind of the middle and latter part of your question is the long-term focus for us on our operating profit rate on what we built over a long period of time. We don't feel like that's necessarily changed. And the reason I say that and the reason we have conviction about it, Michael, is when I look back at the top 10 chains, specifically in the U.S. today versus 10 years ago versus 20 years ago or versus almost 30 years ago when I started in this business and with O'Reilly. As you know, consolidation has continued to take place, and we see consolidation going to continue to take place. And we feel like, again, to what I said about Simeon's question, we feel like we continue to operate in a unique time where there is still some volatility with some of our weaker smaller players. And so again, the answer is a little bit of both. We feel like there continues to be an opportunity for us to invest and not react to short-term things that we could do from an expense standpoint. But we feel like the basic fundamentals of our industry our ability to turn our 10% share into a much larger number over the mid- to long term that we feel confident we can continue to have O'Reilly standards when it comes to leveraging our overall expense structure and continuing to maintain and incrementally grow our operating profit percentage over time.

Got you. My follow-up question is, given your experience in June where the DIY business was a bit softer, does that give you pause as we move throughout the rest of the year, either in the consumer's ability to absorb all this inflation and how it's going to respond in terms of elasticity or some other factors, whether it's immigration policy reform or anything else that might be impacting your core consumer, and we should have more moderate expectations as a result of that experience? Or is that just a one-off situation that we shouldn't expect like moving forward?

Yes. Another great question, Michael. I'll start this off and then see if Jeremy and Brent want to jump in. But we want to answer that balance because there is still so much caution and just pause for us to get too far over our skis with how the consumer is going to react to the remainder of the year as there continues to be pressure. So I want to balance this out. Directly to the question about June, we don't think that signals anything beyond what I just said. And what I mean by that is when we got into June, quite frankly, when you look at our southern markets and really all our markets to some degree, it was very wet. We've really had a hot summer and it's getting hotter which is generally a good thing for us but it was a very wet June. And when we look at category performance and we look at geography performance, it wasn't that there were stark differences, but there were some minor differences that really convicted us that some of the pressure in June, if not all of it, was kind of normal pressure that we saw that we think more offset maybe the remainder of the quarter. We look at the quarter very balanced and still very early in July, but we feel good about the start of July.

Increases related to the tariffs. Is there any difference on how you price or maybe even the timing between your DIY and commercial segment? Just trying to get a feel here for if the...

Scot, for some reason, you're cutting in and out. We're not getting all of your question.

I think maybe you were pointing towards a question around just how we think about the tariff and managing through the tariff does it differ on the DIY and professional side?

Correct.

So really, I'll maybe start there and Brent and Brad can chime in from their perspective. I would tell you, we actively manage that process. It's a very in-depth and involved process, and it's one that we're going down from a category-by-category basis and even how we think about the professional side of our customer base we're trying to understand the different ways we compete in that space and the different types of customers we have. So I think it'd be a little bit of a simplification to say that they both look exactly the same just because it's a fairly complex process. And for sure, there are times at which we have better visibility on the DIY side. It's a little bit simpler of a change there to think through what those modifications would be, whereas we're going to have a different process to understand where the market sits and how the market is moving in a little bit more diversified way with our professional customers. Having maybe laid out those dynamics a little bit, our approach and what we think we see is relatively consistent on both sides of our business. That can differ a little bit category-to-category. And particularly as we think through this kind of timing component. But ultimately, as we kind of work through to get to that equilibrium that Brent talked about, that does tend to work in pretty close parity on both sides of our business.

When you think about the typical consumer reaction to rising prices in the category historically, can you help level set us on the mix of your business that you would say requires immediate action like a dead battery versus what mix is deferrable or discretionary?

Yes, Zack. Thank you for your question. We haven't specifically defined that split very clearly. Honestly, there are quite a few items that fall into an in-between category. A large majority of what we sell requires either an immediate fix or can only be postponed for a very short time. In response to your first question, I'll start there and then Brad and Brent can add their thoughts. Interestingly, our industry usually does not experience significant price sensitivity regarding individual jobs or customer tickets, mainly due to the nondiscretionary nature of the services we provide. If you need an alternator or have a failing battery, those are essential repairs. You rely on your vehicles for work and family activities. From our perspective, what makes us more cautious is not necessarily the elasticity around the prices we set, but rather the broader impact of inflation on our customers' overall spending. This can influence their decisions about deferrable expenses, such as postponing an oil change or delaying an air conditioner repair, or even opting for less expensive alternatives. These are the factors that create more consumer shock within our industry than the individual pricing pressures on our products. We have noticed short-term pressures that can lead to deferrals, but typically, consumers adjust their purchasing behaviors, and things normalize over time.

Yes, Zack, I think just real quick, Jeremy said it very well. The lines in our business between failure maintenance and discretionary, aren't always just black and white. There's some gray area kind of in between. And I think Jeremy kind of walked through the way we look at it very, very well. I think we just continue to try to stay balance that though we haven't seen hardly any, we may have seen a little bit over the last couple of quarters in terms of deferral. We're still very positive about our maintenance categories, obviously, failure categories, the way we see them are performing well, and we continue to see pressure in the discretionary. So we're still positive and constructive. But we also want to stay constructive in terms of just the back half of the year. And if pricing continued to pipe through, do we get to a point where the consumer is at a point like we've seen in years past where they just need to defer a little bit, like we mentioned in the prepared comments, when we've seen those types too times, even though I think what we're going through right now is unprecedented in a lot of ways. When we have seen that type of shock to the consumer, it is fairly short-lived in our industry.

Yes, Zack, that’s a great question. This is Brent. I can start, and Brad and Jeremy can join in. We are really excited about the distribution center and the additional capacity it will provide. We've faced some challenges with our distribution capacity in the Southeast and the Eastern Mid-Atlantic for several years as our store count and volumes have increased. Getting this distribution center operational is something we're very enthusiastic about. When you consider the I-95 corridor, the number of vehicles and people along that route, it represents a significant opportunity for our domestic expansion. While we will relocate some stores from existing distribution centers, we will have ample capacity to grow in the Mid-Atlantic region. Our real estate and operational teams are focused on this, and we see it as a major growth opportunity for us.

Yes, Zack. Brent said it really well. We couldn't be more excited about our opportunities kind of in that upper mid-Atlantic market, very competitive markets, but it has all the market share opportunities to go along with it. And so as we continue to look at kind of that upper Northern Virginia, getting into DC, Baltimore, eventually Philly and New York City, depending on where you draw the line in some of those regions, you can almost come up with one-third of the population of the U.S. to Brent's point, on population, car park, vehicle registrations, et cetera. And so it's going to be a big opportunity to take a little bit of pressure off some existing DCs, but also more importantly, to really get after that part of the country where we have a lot of opportunity.

Great. I wanted to ask just given the disruption in the industry from tariffs and stuff of that nature, do you see this as an opportunity to really accelerate share gains, work closer with the vendors, kind of take some share from customers out there? Just how do you think through that ability to accelerate share gains?

Yes, thank you, Steve. Firstly, while we are experiencing some disruption, we operate in a resilient industry where both consumers and competitors have shown strong resilience. It's important to acknowledge that our larger, well-established competitors, as well as some of the smaller, independent ones, are likely to navigate through this situation effectively. We should not underestimate that. On the other hand, when there is complexity in our industry, I want to highlight the exceptional efforts of our supply chain team led by Brent, along with our merchants, inventory control, purchasing teams, and distribution operations, particularly the merchandise team, who are managing these challenges well. Our experience in this field, our long-standing presence, and our promote-from-within culture have equipped us to handle similar situations in the past. Although the current scenario is somewhat unique, we believe there are opportunities for disruption, particularly among less sophisticated competitors who may already be struggling independently. We recognize the potential for opportunity, but we also understand the importance of executing our strategies effectively because of the complexity involved. We have significant work ahead, and we respect the capabilities of our competitors. Overall, we are optimistic about our industry's resilience and that of our consumers, provided we collaborate effectively to navigate these challenges.

Okay. Understood. And then just a follow-up I had on same-SKU inflation. What should we anticipate as a level of same-SKU inflation in the second half of the year? Sounds like second quarter was up just a little under 1.5%.

Yes. The specific answer to that question is, as Brad mentioned in his prepared comments, we are not expecting a significant increase in the net benefit from inflation in the latter half of the year based on our updated guidance. As we consider our outlook for the rest of the year, we have multiple scenarios in mind. We recognize that the potential for same-SKU inflation in the latter half of the year could be considerably higher due to various factors, including tariffs and industry trends. However, we are cautious about anticipating a significant boost to our revenue from this, given our concerns about the broader impact on consumers. This approach aligns with how we have historically managed our inflation forecasts. While we acknowledge that the environment is dynamic and changing regularly, we remain cautious about projecting future outcomes until we have more clarity.

Great. So we get the sense that peers are taking different stances on the level of price that they're pushing through. So just curious, do you think that your price spreads are similar to historic levels, especially against the WDs or are you noticing any changes there?

I appreciate the question. I think we have a somewhat different view on how the industry is reacting during this time. We spend time analyzing it and feel we have a good understanding of what we're observing. One challenge is that we don’t all enter the market at the same moment to learn about price changes. There is a complex process for how this unfolds throughout the system. Due to similar supplier bases but different manufacturers, the timing can vary. In some cases, we may follow a competitor's move or, more often, we may lead the way. Overall, we believe that market behavior in this environment, though a bit more volatile due to current tariffs, is still largely in line with historical patterns. We don’t expect to encounter anything unusual compared to our past practices.

Yes, well said. Max, this is Brad. We're not seeing anything that indicates changes in the general spreads between independent competitors and our larger public national competitors.

Okay. Great. And then just on SG&A, any specific callouts that you can make as far as the areas that you're investing to capitalize on the market share opportunity?

Yes, we don't like to dig down too deep into details there. But I don't think the answers would surprise anyone, Max. It's the things that are most impactful to the service we provide to our customers which really starts with our teams and how do we think about putting our teams in the right position to be successful in taking care of their customers. How do we make sure that they've got the inventory availability in their hand are supported by access to inventory that's faster than the industry in every instance that you can. You could put those two umbrellas over a big swath of what we do. And I think you'd be pretty far along the way. And so those are always going to be the things that I think are prioritized and important to us in conjunction with some of the technological things that we are continually evolving and modernizing to be sure that we're equipping our teams with the tools that are going to make them most effective in taking care of our customers.

Yes, Max, it’s not always just about outperforming in sales incentive compensation, which we welcome. It also involves the basic strategies we see as opportunities. It’s not only when results exceed expectations; it can also happen during tougher months when conditions normalize or short-term challenges arise, like weather impacts or other business fluctuations. In those situations, we won't overreact to our scheduling approach. If our shops experience a slowdown, we might enhance our delivery service to remain memorable for when business picks up. It's about finding the right balance not just when performance is strong, but also when we face challenges regularly, and we'll make the effort to stay ahead of the competition.

Can you provide some clarity on the expense pressures related to medical casualty self-insurance? What is the growth rate pressure, and is there a potential resolution in sight? Additionally, concerning the operational challenges that teams are encountering, are the field teams experiencing more friction in their territories? Is that the focus of your strategy, and what steps are you taking to address it? Are there any changes in management structure, or any broader insights on the current opportunity to increase market share?

I appreciate the question, Steven. I'll address the second part first. Our business, as Brad mentioned earlier, demonstrates significant resiliency and stability. You may not notice any major shifts, as our field teams are always engaged with their markets. If you visit one of our stores and interact with the team, you'll find they constantly identify opportunities. This proactive approach is ingrained in our culture. However, when we do see changes, it typically means we're effectively capturing opportunities rather than any new incremental business. We ensure that we can handle growth in specific markets without stretching our resources too thin. Additionally, regarding broader inflation concerns that Brent highlighted, we are currently facing some pressure. These factors don't always develop in a linear fashion, and we expect to continue seeing some inflationary effects as we progress through the year. Ultimately, these conditions typically return to long-term averages for costs in such environments, so it's not a long-term worry. However, unique pressures may linger for a few quarters.

Yes, Steven, thank you for the question. This is Brent. When considering our distribution centers, they are located where the people and vehicles are, primarily in major metropolitan areas, and we have varying capacities across our network. Some of our distribution centers are designed to serve 250 or 225 stores, while larger regional centers can serve up to 350 stores. In Stafford, we plan for it to be a regional distribution center serving 350 stores. By the end of this year, we expect to have about one-third of its capacity, possibly a bit more, transferred from other locations, with the remainder representing growth opportunities for us.

Thank you, Matt. We would like to conclude our call today by thanking the entire O'Reilly team for your continued dedication to our customers. I would like to thank everyone for joining our call today, and we look forward to reporting our third-quarter results in October. Thank you.