Procter & Gamble Company (PG) — Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today is John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. This fiscal year, Jon Moeller, Chairman, President and CEO, will join the mid-year and year-end calls, and I'll be leading the Q1 and Q3 calls. Execution of our integrated strategy draws strong results in the July to September quarter. Broad-based organic sales growth across categories and regions, global aggregate market share growth, strong productivity savings enabling increased investment in the superiority of our brands while also delivering very strong earnings growth. These strong first quarter results put us on track to deliver towards the higher end of our fiscal year guidance ranges for organic sales growth and core earnings per share and continued strong cash productivity and cash return to shareholders. So moving to first quarter numbers, organic sales grew 7%. Pricing added 7 points to sales growth, and mix contributed 1 point. Volume rounded down to a decline of 1 point with overall modest volume growth outside greater China. Top-line growth was broad-based across business units with each of our 10 product categories growing organic sales. Home care grew low teens; personal healthcare was up double digits; feminine care, oral care, fabric care, hair care, and grooming, each grew high single digits. Baby care and family care were up mid-singles; skin and personal care grew low singles. Growth was also broad-based across geographies, with five of seven regions growing organic sales. Focus markets grew 6% for the quarter; organic sales in the US were up 7%, and Europe focus markets were up 15%. Greater China organic sales were down 6% versus prior year. Underlying market growth is soft and choppy as consumer confidence remains weak. SK-II was down low teens in Greater China due to soft market conditions and a temporary reduction in social retail merchandising. Enterprise markets were up 13%, with Latin America up 19%, and Europe enterprise markets up 15%. Shipment volume in the US grew 3% again this quarter, and we returned to volume growth in Europe focus markets. Mexico, Brazil, and India, some of our largest enterprise markets, continue to deliver volume growth. These gains largely offset volume declines in the Greater China, Asia Pacific, and European enterprise regions, primarily driven by underlying market contraction. Global aggregate value share was up 40 basis points versus prior year, with 32 of our top 50 category country combinations holding or growing share. In the US, all outlet value share was up 50 basis points versus prior year, with seven of 10 categories holding or growing value share in the quarter. US volume share was up 60 basis points, reflecting 3% volume growth. Value share in European focus markets was up 40 basis points over the past three months. Moving to the bottom line, core earnings per share were $1.83, up 17% versus prior year. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS increased 21%. Core operating margin increased 240 basis points, as 460 basis points of gross margin expansion were partially offset by increased marketing investments, wage and benefit inflation, and foreign exchange impacts on SG&A. Currency-neutral core operating margin increased 340 basis points. Productivity improvements were a 210 basis point help to the quarter. Adjusted free cash for productivity was 97%. We returned $3.8 billion of cash to shareholders, approximately $2.3 billion in dividends, and $1.5 billion in share repurchase. In summary, against what continues to be a challenging and volatile operating environment, a very good start to the fiscal year across top-line, bottom line, and cash. Our team continues to operate with excellence, executing the integrated strategy that has enabled strong results over the past five years, and that is the foundation for balanced growth and value creation. A portfolio of daily use products, many providing cleaning, health, and hygiene benefits in categories where performance plays a significant role in brand choice. Ongoing commitment to and investment in irresistible superiority across the five vectors of product, package, brand communication, retail execution, and value across each price tier we compete. We are again raising the bar on our superiority standards to reflect the dynamic nature of this strategy. Productivity improvement in all areas of our operations to fund investments in superiority, offset cost and currency challenges, expand margins, and deliver strong cash generation. An approach of constructive disruption, a willingness to change, adapt and create new trends and technologies that will shape our industry for the future, especially important in the volatile environment we're in. Finally, an organization that is more empowered, agile, and accountable. We continue to improve the execution of the integrated strategy with four focus areas: supply chain 3.0, digital acumen, environmental sustainability, and the employee value equation. These are not new or separate strategies. They are necessary elements in continuing to build superiority, reduce costs to enable investment and value creation, and to further strengthen our organization. Our strategic choices on portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption, and organization reinforce and build on each other. When executed well, they grow markets which in turn grow share, sales, and profit. We continue to believe that the best path forward to deliver sustainable top and bottom-line growth is to double down on these integrated strategies, starting with a commitment to deliver irresistibly superior propositions to consumers and retail partners fueled by productivity. Moving to guidance. As I mentioned, we expect the environment around us to continue to be volatile and challenging from input costs to currencies to consumer and geopolitical dynamics. We attempt to reflect these realities in our guidance ranges. Based on current spot prices, we estimate commodities will be a tailwind of around $800 million after tax in fiscal '24. This is consistent with the outlook we provided in July. However, within this estimate, there have been several moving parts. We've seen incremental relief on some commodities like pulp, which have been offset by higher costs than other commodities such as fuel. Foreign exchange rates have moved sharply against us, and we now expect a headwind of approximately $1 billion after tax, an incremental $600 million impact since our initial guidance for the year. In addition to these impacts, we are also facing higher inflation in wages and benefits, and we expect higher year-on-year net interest expense of approximately $200 million after tax. As we are just one quarter into the fiscal year, we are maintaining our guidance ranges for organic sales, core EPS growth, cash productivity, and cash return to shareholders, with each solidly on track after a very strong first quarter. Guidance for organic sales is growth of 4% to 5% for the fiscal year. The range includes a normalization in the underlying market growth rate that is likely to occur through calendar year '24 as the market laps the last wave of cost recovery pricing and as market volumes return to growth. For P&G, we expect 3 to 4 points less pricing benefit in each of the next two quarters compared to our first quarter results. On the bottom line, our outlook for fiscal '24 core earnings per share is 6% to 9% growth versus last fiscal year. We're holding the range despite the incremental $600 million after-tax headwind from foreign exchange. With now a 7-point EPS impact from FX, this outlook translates to 13% to 16% core EPS growth on a constant-currency basis. We continue to forecast adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90%. We expect to pay more than $9 billion in dividends and to repurchase $5 billion to $6 billion in common stock, combined a plan to return $14 billion to $15 billion of cash to shareholders this fiscal year. This outlook is based on current market growth rate estimates, commodity prices, and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, or major production stoppages are not anticipated within the guidance ranges. As you consider the cadence of earnings for the year, keep in mind that the back half of the year will see less pricing benefit as we progressively annualize prior year increases. We should also see less commodity benefit as we move through the year. Labor inflation continues throughout the supply chain and costs. FX headwinds will increase versus quarter one. Also, with a strong start to the year, we'll be reinvesting to further strengthen our plans and to maintain strong momentum. Finally, we'll be closely watching the health of the China market and the balance of regions; energy costs are rising as we head into fall and winter; household saving levels have reduced, especially in Europe. Slower economic growth, higher energy costs, and higher interest rates for longer have an impact on consumer confidence. To conclude, while we expect volatile consumer and market dynamics to continue, we remain confident in our strategy and the results that it delivers. We are focused on driving growth in our categories, and we are committed to delivering balanced top and bottom-line growth and value creation for our shareholders. With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

Thanks. Good morning, Andre. I guess just picking up on your comments on organic growth over the balance of the year, maybe you could talk a little bit more about how you're thinking about the progression of price versus volume versus mix over the remainder of the year. And then I'm curious as to whether your approach to balancing those various drivers differs at all between your focus markets, particularly the US and the enterprise markets where you're experiencing more of the currency headwinds? Thank you.

Good morning, Steve. As mentioned in our prepared remarks, we anticipate the market will settle into a lower, more sustainable growth rate, aligning more closely with historical growth around 4%. This is expected to enhance the volume contribution, projected to be around 1% to 2% from pricing, along with some impact from mix. We expect these changes to unfold over the next few quarters, with P&G aiming to grow at a rate slightly above the market both in terms of volume and pricing. We still believe our strategy of leveraging pricing with strong innovation will continue to drive our growth. Over the past two years, our confidence in this approach has strengthened, and we expect to maintain this model. Pricing has been crucial to our growth for 18 out of the last 19 years, and we foresee this trend continuing. Specifically, we anticipate that pricing impacts will start to plateau in the second quarter, with a likely drop in price contribution by 3 to 4 points, which we had anticipated. Subsequently, we expect to see volumes increase, partially offsetting this decline, but we do foresee a lower overall market growth rate for the rest of the year. Regarding the distinction between enterprise markets and focus markets, the primary difference will be foreign exchange, and we will continue to adjust pricing accordingly. We have successfully managed pricing for foreign exchange across various regions, such as Turkey, where we have been able to navigate the significant devaluation of the lira while still growing share, sales, and profit. We will keep applying this model. Beyond that, we will continue to execute the same business approach in our focus markets: innovating, driving superiority, pricing accordingly, and growing markets to boost sales, profit, and market share.

Hey, good morning, guys. So just to follow up on that. Can you characterize what you're seeing competitively in terms of the pricing environment? Obviously, it will be different by geography and product category. But in general, what type of behavior are you seeing from your competitors? And any thoughts around retailer pushback as commodities have turned favorable year-over-year? And just then in terms of volume growth, it sounds like we should expect a return to volume growth. Just what you think your level of visibility is around that and how much comfort you have in ultimately returning to volume growth as pricing drops off? Thanks.

Good morning, Dara. The total market remains consistent with what we've seen in previous periods, showing average market growth of around 6% to 7%. The price component continues to be a major driver, while volumes are stabilizing globally, with minimal variation depending on the region. The only notable exception is Greater China. The price dynamics and rollovers remain steady from one period to the next, without significant competitive differentiation. Promotion levels and related indicators are still below pre-COVID levels, with around 29% of volumes sold on deal in the US. Overall promotional activity is indexed against pre-COVID levels, and in Europe, promotional activities are also down and even decreasing. However, market dynamics do vary, and when aggregated, promotional activity appears to be declining over the past few quarters. This trend is understandable, especially considering limited assistance with commodity costs—we're looking at about $800 million in after-tax benefits countered by around $1 billion in foreign exchange impacts. After two years that collectively posed $7 billion in headwinds, it's clear that recovery is ongoing, which aligns with the current pricing dynamics. We haven't encountered significant retailer pushback beyond typical discussions about maximizing value for shoppers and consumers at large. Our strategy of fostering innovation and superiority, while also pricing to create value for both retailers and shoppers, seems effective. On the volume side, we are optimistic about our growth trajectory. Excluding China, we’re already observing a sequential improvement of 20 basis points in volume growth compared to previous quarters, which aligns with our expectations amid 7% pricing entering the market. We anticipate continued volume growth, especially in the strong US and European markets, as well as in Latin America and India. We see ourselves advancing on this positive trajectory.

Great. Thanks.

Great. I want to drill in on China a little bit. Number one, kind of in the short term, how is the business there progressing? Any visibility or improvement there? And when do you think that may turn positive? And then, a little bit longer term or kind of strategically, we are hearing from some of the other companies we talk to that the Chinese market may not be as profitable and attractive as perhaps they may have thought a number of years ago and that perhaps the nature of competition is changing in China again. So I'd love to get your thoughts on both China in the short term and the long term. Thank you.

Thanks, Rob. Good morning. I think we said all along that we don't expect the China recovery to be quick, extensive, or linear. And I think that's playing out. The business health in China is really all driven by market dynamics right now. So total market volume continues to be down. It has been down over the past few quarters between 7% and 9%. Value is down around 5% over the past few quarters, and that's the market I'm describing. So we're operating within a market that is still contracting post-COVID reopening. That said, we do believe that China continues to be an attractive place for us to do business. We've been there for 30 years. We have a very strong organization on the ground, R&D capability, supply chain capability, and commercial capability. The Chinese consumer is a demanding consumer. The Chinese retail environment is a demanding retail environment, and that generally plays to our strength. So we believe that, a, we can play a value-creating role in China, and we expect the Chinese market to return to mid-single-digit growth here over the coming periods. If you just look at the consumer structures, middle-income consumers, we have about 450 million, we estimate in China today. That will grow probably north of 700 million over the next five years. So there is a class of consumers that we believe are attractive for our businesses. Therefore, we believe that our business in China can create significant value over the next few years, and we'll continue to remain invested.

Great. Thanks. Good morning. You've mentioned a return to volume growth in European focus markets, which is great to see, and obviously, market shares have generally held up well. But we started to see some pickup in private label share trends across Europe. You mentioned the European consumer being under pressure. So just kind of curious maybe some more broad thoughts there on Europe on market share trends that you're seeing more real-time versus what's kind of already transpired in the reported results, more the go-forward look on European shares and volume trends? Thanks.

Good morning, Lauren. Thank you. Let me concentrate on the Western European market since that's what your question pertains to. We've experienced a 15% organic sales growth in our focus markets in Europe, which is exceptionally strong, resulting from 2% volume growth and a positive price mix. We have gained 40 basis points of market share in these regions, which is indicative of returning to volume growth, and these are generally encouraging signs. While private label shares in Europe are increasing at about 80 basis points month-over-month, we are still able to grow our share in these markets. This growth is supported by a robust portfolio across various brand tiers and cash outlays. Our presence in all relevant channels throughout Europe enables us to compete effectively, even as consumers evaluate private labels versus branded products. The dynamics continue to favor us.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, Andre. I have two related questions. First, regarding the first quarter and your guidance, which seems to lean towards the higher end of the range, could you share what improvements you've observed so far this year? Secondly, you mentioned reinvestment. Can you provide some details on the scale of that reinvestment and how those funds are being allocated?

Good morning, Bryan. In the first quarter, we are encouraged by several factors regarding consumption. While we anticipate fluctuations in China, we have managed to achieve a 7% growth overall, which is quite reassuring. The significant growth in value and volume outside of China gives us confidence that our model will continue to yield results that align with the upper end of our guidance. We will look for investment opportunities where the potential return is attractive, rather than simply based on available funds. Our main focus in this environment is to invest in initiatives that promote market growth. This includes investment in products, innovation that addresses new consumer needs, media expenditures that enhance household penetration, and communication strategies that effectively engage consumers for better satisfaction. For example, our entry into the bedwetting category with Ninjamas has proven successful, driving 60% of the 7% category growth—a significant achievement. We are also honing our media targeting worldwide, leading to improved ROI, which allows us to increase our reach and frequency. This is essential for boosting household penetration and encouraging trial and loyalty. Lastly, we are investing in supply chain resilience and productivity, which we view as key competitive advantages. We will maintain a favorable capacity-to-demand ratio and prioritize productivity investments to uphold our business model's emphasis on superiority. Rest assured, all these actions will be taken with a disciplined approach focused on return on investment.

Thank you. Good morning. Andre, I'd like to explore your comments about volume a bit further. You mentioned China, and I believe you're still projecting mid-single-digit growth, acknowledging the fluctuations in the market. You noted that SK-II is down in the low teens, so I'm assuming that you expect SK-II to gradually improve or face easier comparisons as we move through the rest of the year. When you talked about pricing and broke down your guidance for the company, which is 4% to 5% organic growth, you indicated an expected sequential decline in pricing benefits of 3% to 4%. This would suggest you had a good 7% previously, meaning we can expect a similar 3% to 4% over the next two quarters. Given this, it suggests that some level of volume improvement or at least an inflection is anticipated in the coming quarters. I’m trying to understand how this relates to your comments on China and the overall company performance, essentially whether we should expect an improvement in China as part of this growth.

Good morning, Andrea. Regarding the first part of your question, we certainly hope to see SK-II return to growth. However, the volume impact of SK-II is somewhat limited because it has a very high unit sales to organic sales ratio. We believe China will return to mid-single-digit growth, but predicting when exactly that will happen is quite challenging. We achieved 7% organic sales growth in the first quarter despite China's downturn, and we aim to continue operating without relying on a recovery in China as the primary driver of growth in the coming quarters. As for your question about volume, you are correct that the pricing contribution to organic sales growth is expected to decrease by 3 to 4 points in the upcoming quarters. We anticipate that volume will improve sequentially, although I can't predict the exact path of that improvement. However, I can say that the progress we are witnessing—from a decline of 6% to 3% down to flat, and now moving towards a potential improvement—is encouraging. We believe we are on the right track and will keep investing to enhance wholesale penetration and generate volume growth in our business.

Thank you. Good morning. Andre, you mentioned the changes in foreign exchange and how you've incorporated that into your fiscal year outlook. Can you elaborate on the consumer and economic factors included in your outlook? There are obviously rising risks or concerns related to trade downs, slower volumes, and overall macroeconomic conditions. Could you address that? Additionally, please discuss your capability to alternate between spending that affects net sales and operating expenses in light of potentially unstable conditions. Thank you.

Yeah. Thanks, Olivia. Good morning. Look, the consumer continues to be remarkably resilient. As we said in the US, the consumption levels are actually stable. Our volume share and our value share are growing. And that's true in Europe and in most parts of the world. And I interpret that as our portfolio doing exactly the job that it's supposed to do. Building a portfolio that is grounded in superiority in daily use categories that are nondiscretionary, I think is serving us extremely well. We're able to add value, bring value to the consumer. And we are doing that in every tier, not just in the premium tier, but in the mid-tier and in value tiers across the world, which allows us to serve the consumer even as their spending preferences might change. Now, we haven't seen a significant change in their preference yet. If anything, consumers that are choosing P&G products continue to trade up within our portfolio. But you can see our ability to grow in markets even when we see private label shares expand. And so we don't expect a significant change in that profile. We believe we are well set up to grow even if the consumer feels a bit of more of a pinch here going into the fall or winter season. The main intervention for us continues to be investing in innovation and continuing to invest in media support to communicate the strength and the value that our brands can provide. We don't see a significant need to drive price promotion. Our focus, if we promote, if we seek in-store support, is really to drive regimen. So we view it as a strategic tool to drive either trial or habit formation, i.e., regimen steps added to the laundry regimen or the hair care regimen for example, because that drives incremental consumption, it drives growth for our retail partners and for us. In many cases, our innovation is strong enough to get in-store support, and that's really what we're after. When the product generates enough traffic and consumption so retailers want to support it, that's the golden grade we’re after.

Hi, good morning. I was wondering if you could expand on two categories, which have been important for volume growth and seemingly should be important ahead. Just first on laundry. We've seen an improvement, a reacceleration in trend. Can you just expand on what's driving that and the durability? And then second, in personal healthcare, I believe that was an important driver of volume growth for the quarter. Can you just expand on what exactly was driving that in the quarter and if you think those trends are also sustainable going forward? So I'm just trying to get a sense of some of the volume durability that we saw in the quarter go forward, specifically in the context of potentially some volatility out of China likely to persist. Thanks so much.

Thank you, Chris. Good morning. The laundry business is performing very well globally. I want to highlight the US market, as it is our largest market and provides the most visibility. The trends here are quite positive. We are experiencing growth in both value and volume shares in US fabric care. While value share has remained stable over the past three months, volume share has increased by 1.6 points. We are advancing the laundry business significantly, achieving record high shares in fabric enhancers and seeing record high laundry consumption in the US. Most importantly, we are responsible for 70% of the category growth in laundry and 100% of the growth in fabric enhancers. This success is fueled by strong innovation, superior products, and increased consumer communication and in-store support. I firmly believe this growth will continue, and yes, it is sustainable as it aligns with our business model. Personal healthcare is performing exceptionally well worldwide, with seasonality also playing an important role. As we enter this season, we are witnessing strong results, which contribute to the volume strength you observe. Additionally, we are making significant investments to enhance our supply capabilities in personal healthcare to support ongoing growth. I'm optimistic about both businesses, and I believe the growth trajectory is definitely sustainable.

Hey, good morning, Andre. Just a question on gross margin. Clearly, very strong, the performance in the quarter. Big inflection in terms of the year-over-year increase. You seem like you have pretty good visibility in the first half, at least on the commodity front. Can you give us a sense of how you're thinking the second half will play out, especially as pricing contribution comes down? Thank you.

Good morning, Filippo. Yeah, when we talked about the cadence of earnings, I think it's important to understand the drivers of the gross margin expansion we saw in quarter one. We expect some normalization of gross margin. We were certainly benefiting from a high price contribution in quarter one. And as we said, that price contribution will ease over the coming quarters. The biggest part of the commodity help, about 33% of the $800 million after-tax commodity help has materialized in quarter one. So that's a positive to gross margin relative to the balance of the year. And the foreign exchange rate headwinds will accelerate over the coming quarters. On the other hand, we will accelerate and continue to drive strong productivity. We will continue to drive trade-up and innovation. And we continue to drive every other element of productivity, not only in gross margin but across the P&L and the balance sheet. But I want you to take away that the gross margin expansion in quarter one is very strong, but we have headwinds going into the balance of the year.

Thanks, operator. And good morning, Andre. Hope you are doing well. So I wanted to ask specifically on Latin America, 19% growth in the quarter, very strong. And you may have alluded to this, but are you already seeing a return to volume growth in the region? And then just thinking through the performance in the quarter, can you maybe just unpack what you're seeing in terms of broader category performance versus how much of this growth is a function of share gains? Thanks.

Good morning, Peter. Look, the Latin America business is on fire. I think it is on fire because we've chosen maybe opposite to the market to double down on superiority. When we saw the need to price for foreign exchange and commodity impacts in Latin America, the team made the choice to double down on innovation and price for the innovation and to offset foreign exchange rate, inflation, and commodities. That clearly has played out well. We are seeing growth in our categories, and we are seeing share growth in Latin America. The growth is both on the volume side and on the value side in the biggest markets, in Brazil, Mexico, for example. I think the biggest headwind that we have to acknowledge is Argentina, where it's very difficult to make progress at this point in time, given the level of inflation and some constraints in terms of ability to price. So outside of Argentina, I can only paint a very positive picture of the Latin America growth construction. Again, it's grounded in the superiority of our brands. I feel very strong about the sustainability of that model.

Thanks, and good morning everyone. Two sort of unrelated follow-ups. One, just on China. Given your commentary about the middle class, I think everybody's obviously aware that there's a growing middle class and that they'll ultimately consume more. But any sort of changes in your view about how quickly the middle class premiumizes purchases? Obviously, SK-II may be sort of a one-off, but any changes there in terms of how quickly you think that they can go for more premium-priced products that potentially change how Procter thinks about its product positioning or portfolio positioning in the market? And then on the gross margin versus marketing spend sort of decision tree. If gross margin moderates, how do we think about the incremental reinvestment or marketing investment from an SG&A standpoint through the year? Would that inversely kind of move with gross margin? Or I should say, would it move with gross margin, meaning less gross margin expansion, less reinvestment? Thank you.

Good morning, Mark. I don’t have additional insights on the timing of the recovery in China. The market's volatility is closely linked to consumer confidence and income levels, which will influence recovery timing. We're hopeful for a quicker recovery, but we are also prepared for it to take longer. Regarding gross margin and marketing spending, we are truly focused on return on investment. There isn't a direct link between available funds and investment levels. If we continue to see a positive response to our marketing spend and the increases we implement in the first quarter, we have a strong reason to maintain that level of investment. I also anticipate that our gross margin improvement and overall growth will allow us to continue to support strong innovation. This is integral to our business model. It’s essential that we maintain high productivity to reinvest in our superiority to expand markets, and we need to keep this cycle ongoing.

Yes, thanks very much. Another strong quarter in the US, seeing both volume and value growth. Just looking back at 2020 where you were dealing with obviously a lot of COVID headwinds, you were talking about growing about 4% to 6% as a sustainable rate of growth in the US. In light of all that's gone on in the past few years and seeing where we are in the US at the moment with the consumer, are you still comfortable with that range over the longer term?

I won't provide guidance on a market-by-market basis. What is becoming clear is that the business model we are implementing in the US is very successful. If we continue to drive market growth, this will help us achieve sales growth that outpaces that market growth, while remaining sustainable because we are creating business rather than taking it from competitors. I believe this model will be successful, and I am very confident in the growth prospects for the US. We are committed to excelling in every aspect of our market execution. Overall, my confidence in the US market's capability and growth trajectory is very high. Are there any more questions?

Thank you very much for joining us today. Again, very strong first quarter in the year and we look forward to speaking with you. If you have any questions, John and I will be available all day. So please feel free to call or e-mail. Thank you very much.