Packaging Corp Of America
Exchange: NYSESector: Consumer CyclicalIndustry: Packaging & Containers
Packaging Corporation of America is a producer of containerboard in the United States. The Company's corrugated products manufacturing plants produce a variety of corrugated packaging products, including conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods, multi-color boxes and displays. In addition, it is a producer of meat boxes and wax-coated boxes for the agricultural industry. During the year ended December 31, 2012, the Company produced 2.6 million tons of containerboard at its mills. The Company's corrugated products manufacturing plants sold about 34.7 billion square feet. In 2012, it produced 1.6 million tons of kraft linerboard at its mills in Counce, Tennessee and Valdosta, Georgia, and one million tons of semi-chemical corrugating medium at its mills in Tomahawk, Wisconsin and Filer City, Michigan. In October 2013, the Company acquired Boise Inc.
Current Price
$224.59
+0.52%GoodMoat Value
$168.30
25.1% overvaluedProfile
Valuation (TTM)
Market Cap$20.04B
P/E27.04
EV$22.57B
P/B4.36
Shares Out89.21M
P/Sales2.17
Revenue$9.22B
EV/EBITDA13.12
Packaging Corp Of America (PKG) Stock Analysis
GoodMoat Analysis
Packaging Corp of America is a high-quality, profitable packaging business with a moderate competitive moat, but it appears significantly overvalued relative to its estimated intrinsic value. The GoodMoat Target price suggests a 35% downside, making the current valuation unfavourable for a value investor.
Read full analysis
Packaging Corp of America (PKG) is a leading producer of containerboard and corrugated packaging products, serving a diverse range of consumer and industrial end markets. Applying the GoodMoat framework, the company demonstrates a moderate competitive position, likely scoring in the 5-6 range. Its moat is built on scale privilege in asset-heavy manufacturing, strategic vertical integration from paper mills to box plants, and high customer switching costs due to the mission-critical nature of packaging and logistical ties. This is supported by solid quality indicators, including a strong 16.8% ROE, a reasonable debt/equity ratio of 0.95, and consistent GAAP profitability. The company passes the initial Moat & Quality Gate in the Decision Framework. However, the valuation assessment presents a major hurdle. With a P/E of 24.8 and a GoodMoat Target of $136.49, the stock trades at a 55% premium to that estimated fair value, indicating a negative margin of safety. This fails the Valuation & Risk Gate, as a DCF would show a margin of safety well below the 20% threshold required for a 'favourable' rating. While the business itself is sound, the price does not provide the necessary discount for a value investor. Further investigation would focus on justifying the premium through exceptional growth or margin expansion, which the current 10.1% revenue growth and 8.6% profit margin do not immediately support. Analysis based on data as of 2024-05-15.
Market Cap$20.04B
Current Price$224.59
P/E Ratio27.04
Forward P/E—
PEG Ratio-1.75
EPS$8.58
Book Value$51.54
P/B Ratio4.36
PKG Financial Charts
FCF vs CAPEX
FCFCAPEX
Forward estimates use -1.7% FCF growth (CAGR)
Cash vs Debt
Net Debt: 3.8B
Revenue
7.0B
FY19
6.7B
FY20
7.7B
FY21
8.5B
FY22
7.8B
FY23
8.4B
FY24
9.0B
FY25
Net Income
696M
FY19
461M
FY20
841M
FY21
1.0B
FY22
765M
FY23
805M
FY24
774M
FY25
PKG 52-Week Range
$182.95
$244.88
50-Day MA: $214.84200-Day MA: $209.79
Did you know?
PKG's revenue grew at a 4.3% CAGR over the last 6 years.
Packaging Corp Of America (PKG) Financial Summary
Packaging Corp Of America (PKG) is a Consumer Cyclical company in the Packaging & Containers industry, listed on NYSE. The stock currently trades at $224.59 with a market capitalization of $20.04B.
Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 27.04, price-to-book ratio of 4.36, and EPS of $8.58. The company reports a profit margin of 8.0% and return on equity of 16.1%.
PKG Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $20.04B |
| P/E Ratio | 27.04 |
| EPS | $8.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.12 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.24% |
| Profit Margin | 8.0% |
| Return on Equity | 16.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.95 |
PKG Revenue & Earnings History
| Year | Revenue | Net Income |
|---|---|---|
| FY19 | $6.96B | $696.40M |
| FY20 | $6.66B | $461.00M |
| FY21 | $7.73B | $841.10M |
| FY22 | $8.48B | $1.03B |
| FY23 | $7.80B | $765.20M |
| FY24 | $8.38B | $805.10M |
| FY25 | $8.99B | $774.10M |
Packaging Corp Of America (PKG) Valuation
Based on GoodMoat's DCF model, Packaging Corp Of America has a fair value estimate of $168.30. At the current price of $224.59, the stock appears 33.4% overvalued relative to our intrinsic value estimate.
PKG Quality Indicators
Packaging Corp Of America maintains a profit margin of 8.0% and an operating margin of 12.3%. Return on equity stands at 16.1%. The current ratio is 3.17. Debt-to-equity ratio is 0.95.
About Packaging Corp Of America
Packaging Corporation of America is a producer of containerboard in the United States. The Company's corrugated products manufacturing plants produce a variety of corrugated packaging products, including conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods, multi-color boxes and displays. In addition, it is a producer of meat boxes and wax-coated boxes for the agricultural industry. During the year ended December 31, 2012, the Company produced 2.6 million tons of containerboard at its mills. The Company's corrugated products manufacturing plants sold about 34.7 billion square feet. In 2012, it produced 1.6 million tons of kraft linerboard at its mills in Counce, Tennessee and Valdosta, Georgia, and one million tons of semi-chemical corrugating medium at its mills in Tomahawk, Wisconsin and Filer City, Michigan. In October 2013, the Company acquired Boise Inc.
PKG Free Cash Flow
Packaging Corp Of America generated $728.60M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, representing an FCF yield of 3.64%. This moderate FCF yield indicates reasonable cash generation.
PKG Shares Outstanding
Packaging Corp Of America has 0.09 billion shares outstanding at a share price of $224.59, giving it a market capitalization of $20.04B.
PKG Recent Insider Trades
Recent insider transactions at Packaging Corp Of America include:
| Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hassfurther Thomas A (President) | SELL | 12,129 | $2.80M |