Pentair plc (PNR) — Q1 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Thanks, Stephanie, and welcome to Pentair's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. We're glad you could join us. I'm Jim Lucas, Senior Vice President, Treasurer, FP&A and Investor Relations. With me today is John Stauch, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Fishman, our Chief Financial Officer. On today's call, we will provide details on our first quarter performance, as outlined in this morning's press release. Before we begin, let me remind you that any statements made about the company's anticipated financial results are forward-looking statements subject to future risks and uncertainties such as the risks outlined in Pentair's most recent Form 10-Q, Form 10-K and today's press release. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from anticipated results. Today's webcast is accompanied by a presentation, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Pentair's website. We will reference these slides throughout our prepared remarks. Any references to non-GAAP financials are reconciled in the appendix of the presentation. We will be sure to reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to John.

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 4 titled Executive Summary. I would first like to start by thanking the entire Pentair organization and the contributions they have made to help deliver on our commitments to all of our stakeholders. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank all of our global channel partners and suppliers for their patience and efforts in working with us and our consumers to meet our commitments despite the effects of decreases in the South, canal blockages, supply chain constraints and, of course, the ongoing pandemic. Building off the momentum from last year, we started 2021 strong, with sales up 22%, adjusted EPS increasing 56% and free cash flow improving significantly from the comparable period last year. Our residential business has led the way as Consumer Solutions experienced a 34% increase in sales. Encouragingly, we saw sales in all three businesses in Industrial & Flow Technologies return to growth for the first time in over a year. We announced the acquisition of Ken's Beverage earlier this week. This is a strategic bolt-on acquisition that provides Pentair a valuable national direct service network to expand our commercial water treatment business. We believe we will be in a position to seamlessly manage the full customer experience from product development, sales, installation, and service to ensure the best quality products are matched with the most reliable and dedicated service network for all commercial applications. We believe Ken's provides us a platform to grow from as well as an opportunity to continue to expand our products offered to this important channel. Our balance sheet remains in excellent shape, and we are well positioned to fund organic growth and inorganic growth opportunities and return capital to our shareholders through dividends and opportunistic share repurchases. With a strong start to the year, we are raising our full year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $2.80 to $2.95. While inflation remains high, we have instituted a number of selling price increases across the portfolio that we expect to help mitigate inflation in the second half of the year. The strong start to the year and continued strength in our Residential businesses gives us confidence that we will have another strong year of growth for Pentair. Equally important are the signs of recovery in our commercial and industrial businesses. We plan to continue to invest in our strategic growth initiatives, and we will remain disciplined with our balance sheet. Please turn to Slide five labeled 2021 Execution Expectations. As we highlighted at the end of last year, we understand the importance of delivering the core while we also build our future. The focus has been and will remain on consistently making our commitments. Our actual results for the past three quarters have come in significantly better than our expectations as residential demand has been very strong. While we have experienced robust sales and EPS growth, we have also improved our cash flow and our balance sheet is the strongest it's been in years. Building our future means focusing on the things that are within our control. We look forward to providing more depth on this topic at our June 10 Investor Day. However, this is a continuation of the hard work we have been undertaking for the past several years. It starts with our focus growth initiatives primarily in our Consumer Solutions segment. We are a leader in the pool industry, and we continue to build on our leading position. Investments in this area include automation, smart and connected solutions, energy efficiency offerings and now better filtration solutions. Within water treatment, we have expanded from components into systems and services within both residential and commercial. We have made significant investments in digitally building our brand and expanding our reach. We recently created a transformation office as we embark on the journey to drive growth while being more agile and flexible. Transformation can have many meanings. But to us, it means that we will have the right strategy, organization, leadership and culture while accelerating growth and driving margin expansion by leveraging our internal capabilities and reducing complexity. This is not an either or but a both and. We recognize that we must grow and drive productivity in order to maximize our ability to deliver for customers and create value for shareholders. We plan to continue to accelerate our digital innovation, technology and ESG investments, and we expect to fund many of these initiatives through our complexity reduction efforts. We believe that we are better positioned to deliver consistent growth and margin expansion while also generating strong cash flow. Our goal has been and continues to be delivering consistently for our customers, employees, shareholders and the environment. I would now like to turn the call over to Bob to discuss our performance and our financial results in more detail. After which, I'll provide an update on our overall strategic position.

Thank you, John. Please turn to Slide 6 labeled Q1 2021 Pentair Performance. First quarter sales grew an impressive 22%, with core sales increasing 19%. Consumer Solutions grew in excess of 30%, and Industrial & Flow Technologies returned to growth for the first time in five quarters. Segment income was up nearly 50% as we saw strong drop-through, and return on sales expanded 330 basis points to 19%. Adjusted EPS jumped 56% to $0.81. We saw price and productivity offset inflation in the quarter. This was the third consecutive quarter of strong double-digit sales growth within our residential businesses. But just as encouraging was our commercial and industrial businesses showing sequential improvement and some pockets of growth. We were very pleased with our first quarter performance, and we believe the momentum should continue. Please turn to Slide 7, labeled Q1 2021 Consumer Solutions Performance. Consumer Solutions sales growth was 34% as both businesses delivered double-digit growth. Segment income increased 54%, and return on sales expanded 330 basis points to 25.1%. Pool experienced remarkable growth of almost 50% in the first quarter. Traditionally, the first quarter is preparing for the upcoming pool season, but we saw strong demand flow through the channel as we believe pool dealers continue to do their best to keep up with robust demand. The theme of consumers investing in the backyard as part of their home oasis continued. Demand for new pools remained strong as many builders saw bookings well past the current pool season. An already strong pool maintenance space grew only stronger as the freeze earlier this year in the Southern U.S. caused many premature equipment failures due to water freezing within the equipment. Pool has experienced strong double-digit sales growth for three consecutive quarters, and this would not be possible without our operations and supply teams and their ability to continuously increase capacity and execute at historically high-volume levels. We saw strong demand for pumps during the quarter and continued to see broader adoption of our variable speed pumps as a new DOE regulation goes into effect later this year. Demand for heaters remains quite high, and we have significantly increased our production capacity. Water treatment delivered 12% sales growth as residential demand remained robust and the decline in commercial volumes showed further sequential improvement. Within residential products, we saw strong growth in valves, tanks, pitchers, and faucets. We experienced strong growth in the U.S., Europe, and especially in China. We're in the early stages of integrating Rocean, but we believe the acquisition will enhance our product offerings going forward. Within residential services, we continue to experience strong demand and healthy conversion of leads into actual orders. We've made good progress on our journey to become the trusted, nationally branded experience, led in part by our brand transition to Pentair Water Solutions. We are launching a number of new recurring revenue services, including preventative maintenance programs, service bolt-ons for plumbing services, cartridge change-outs, and extended warranty programs. We are seeing continued signs of these foundational building blocks coming together, leading to more consistent, predictable growth. We believe that commercial demand is finally finding a bottom and expect comps to get easier going forward. We continue to build a strong new business funnel, particularly for our total water management offerings. We believe the addition of Ken's Beverage will help strengthen these offerings. Please turn to Slide 8 labeled Q1 2021 Industrial & Flow Technologies Performance. Industrial & Flow Technologies sales increased 7% in the quarter, led by another quarter of double-digit growth in residential flow, and both commercial flow and industrial filtration encouragingly posted modest growth in the quarter. Segment income increased 12%, and return on sales expanded 60 basis points to 14.5%. Residential flow grew at a double-digit rate for the second consecutive quarter as demand remains strong across residential, irrigation, and ag spray. We also experienced strong growth across retail, Pro, and OEM channels. Commercial flow returned to growth, with backlog growing for the first time in many quarters. While infrastructure remains soft, we were encouraged by a growing backlog within commercial. We were pleased to see industrial filtration return to growth in the first quarter and improve its backlog both year-over-year and sequentially. While headwinds remain in our longer-cycle businesses due to caution in larger capital investments, we saw solid improvement in short-cycle component demand. Within our food and beverage business, we are beginning to see orders for our beer membrane filtration systems, including a new system for beer stabilization. In addition, we continue to expand our IoT offering with existing beer customers. Finally, we have seen a substantial increase in backlog for our biogas systems. Industrial & Flow Technologies remains focused on reducing complexity, selective growth, and margin expansion, and we are encouraged by the improving top and bottom line to start the year. Please turn to Slide 9, labeled Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. While the first quarter is historically a period of cash flow usage due to seasonal working capital being built, we were very pleased to see only minimal usage this year and over $150 million year-over-year improvement. This was driven primarily by our pool business and improved linearity. We expect another good year of free cash flow driven by strong demand and continued disciplined working capital management. We ended the quarter at 1.3 times leverage, and our return on invested capital was a strong 16.3%. As we look at our cash flow needs going forward, we have a bond maturing in the second quarter, and we will be paying our quarterly dividend. Beyond that, we will continue to be disciplined in our capital allocation as we continue to work the M&A pipeline, and we continue to have in our plan a buyback of at least $150 million of our shares this year. Please turn to Slide 10 labeled Q2 and Full Year 2021 Pentair Outlook. We are initiating second quarter and updating our full year 2021 guidance. For the second quarter, we expect sales to grow 13% to 16%, segment income to grow 12% to 20% and adjusted EPS to grow 17% to 25% to a range of $0.69 to $0.74. For the full year, we expect sales to grow 6% to 11%, segment income to increase 10% to 16% and adjusted EPS to grow 12% to 18% to a range of $2.80 to $2.95. We continue to work through material shortages and inflation that is impacting the second quarter. We believe that our pricing actions taken in the first half will help mitigate full year inflationary pressures. We have not factored in Ken's Beverage into our forecast as we are awaiting finalization of the transaction. Embedded in our full year sales guidance is anticipated low double-digit growth in Consumer Solutions, with pool expected to be up mid-teens and water treatment up high single digits to low double digits. Within Industrial & Flow Technologies, we expect the top line to be up low-to-mid single digits, with residential above the segment average. While we are experiencing an increase in orders for the short-cycle parts of our commercial and industrial businesses, we have not yet seen larger capital spending materialize. Below the operating line, we expect corporate expense to be around $65 million, net interest to be in a range of $16 million to $18 million, our tax rate to be around 15%, and the share count is expected to average between 167 million and 168 million shares for the full year. Capital expenditures are expected to be around $65 million, while depreciation and amortization is anticipated to be about $80 million. We continue to target free cash flow to be greater than or equal to net income. I would now like to turn the call over to Stephanie for Q&A. After which, John will have a few closing remarks.

Good morning, guys. Nice quarter.

Thank you.

John, just focusing on your Q2 guide for a second, I think we all understand that pool was unusually strong in Q1 versus normal seasonality, but is there any reason why pool would be down sequentially in your usually seasonally strongest Q2? How much of a boost did you see from Texas weather-related issues in Q1? Or are you worried at all that supply constraints could get worse? Maybe just give us some more color because for the overall company, you're still forecasting lower year-over-year growth in Q2 than Q1 despite easier comparisons.

Andy, I totally understand. I'm going to have Bob answer that one.

Yes. While we're pleased with the Q2 guide versus the prior year, it's not lost on us that with the demand that we're seeing in the overall business, not just pool, why couldn't we have done as well sequentially versus Q1. We look at that, and we do face some material shortages in key components, resins, motors, circuit boards. And while we have shown an improvement over the last couple of weeks, it is an impact to the second quarter. We're also facing some inflationary pressures in the second quarter. And while we have increased prices, most of that will read out in the back half. So we're doing everything we can to catch up and basically satisfy this increased demand, but there are some supply challenges that we are facing in the second quarter.

Thanks, Bob. And then just focusing maybe on that inflation, it looks like you got a nice uptick in productivity in Q1 and productivity plus prices more than offsetting inflation. It seems you've been able to get over the labor availability issues you talked about in the past. And we know your guidance in the past was for price and productivity to offset inflation, but is it possible for you to actually stay ahead of the inflation despite all these constraints?

That is certainly our goal. Obviously, in the second quarter, we have the inflation challenge. But for the back half of the year, what you just mentioned is our goal. I did want to congratulate the operations team, the supply chain. A lot of the issues that we saw in 2020 as we ramped up production, we really addressed head on and did a nice job. So a lot of that productivity improvement is driving the leverage over a fixed cost base and driving the efficiencies in a really cost-effective manner.

And Bob, you're able to get the labor you need to meet this ramp up?

Labor continues to be a challenge, and it's something that we need to address. In many places of the business, it's a challenge, to be totally honest. But our guidance should not be impacted by that, but it's certainly on our radar screen.

Appreciate it, guys.

Hey, guys. Good morning and thanks for taking the questions. Great job on the quarter.

Thank you.

You alluded to this, John, during the prepared remarks, but can you quantify a bit what your exposure is to Texas? We know it's one of the top three pool markets in the country, but specific to kind of your, I guess, indexing there versus other parts of the country, can you give us some sense? And it sounds like that's driven some near-term demand, just the winter freeze and the fallout of that. But do you see kind of with pool backlogs and how busy dealers are that some of that's even having to push into 2022 for people that are needing to go to their pools in Texas and fix things or outright replace them?

Yes, it's accurate to say that there is an industry capacity limitation regarding the overall pool supply that we're continually addressing with dealers and pool builders in relation to consumer demand. In Texas, we encountered some immediate issues with repairs that occurred in the first quarter, but most of these will be resolved in the second quarter through our regular shipping processes. Additionally, the situation in Texas was largely due to material supply chain challenges, as many resins are sourced from that region. That capacity is gradually being restored and improving each day, which Bob also mentioned. Therefore, I can't categorize Texas as a success for either the first or second quarter. It simply reflects the overall demand in a major pool state that we consistently cater to.

Okay, that's helpful. I have another question to ask. Clearly, the housing market has been strong, and the number of new pools has been steadily increasing over the past few years, especially recently. Can you provide insight on the percentage of new pool installations compared to retrofits, and how this has changed lately? Additionally, do you anticipate this trend continuing to shift more towards new pools for the remainder of this year and into next year?

Yes. I can take that one. Our mix remains fairly constant: roughly 20%, new pool; 20%, remodel; and roughly 60%, aftermarket.

The new pools are definitely up large on a year-over-year basis, and we still see that trend continuing. But as an overall impact to the business, it's not as beneficial as continuing to build the aftermarket growth and the remodeling growth for us. That being said, every new pool that goes in, we want to convince those consumers and the pool dealers to put all the new content in and make those smart automated pools. And that adds to the aftermarket opportunity later as well.

Alright. Thanks a lot, guys.

Thank you.

Hey. Good morning, everyone.

Hey, Mike.

So just some questions on the guide here, the first one at least. Obviously, good answer to understand why 2Q may be a little bit more muted relative to what 1Q would imply from a pool perspective. But inventories, lean in the channel, I mean, how do you think that plays out through the balance of the year then? I mean it seems like you're implying that there's some pushouts into the second half of the year. Supply chain constraints are kind of rampant throughout the industry. Not like that demand goes away. So maybe just help with some of the cadencing and how you're thinking about the year and what all of these challenges can equate to as you move over the next few quarters, not just 2Q.

Looking at the year, our guidance for Q2 indicates slight revenue growth compared to significant figures from the previous year. The business performed well in the latter half of last year, so we are encouraged by this growth. Is there room for improvement? Possibly. Our focus also remains on margins. While we are competitive in managing price costs, our strategic growth investments in the second half are slightly affecting our overall margin expansion. We believe this investment will yield benefits in 2022 and beyond, particularly in the pool and water treatment sectors, but it does impact our margin expansion.

Just a point of clarification on the first part of that. Are you implying pretty normal sequentials from 2Q into the back half of the year on the pool side?

I think we're still trying to catch up. The inventory in the channel is relatively low. We've been working on this since last year. In Q1, we probably met sell-through demand. We need to focus on Q2, Q3, and Q4 to catch up with the channel's demand and continue rebuilding our inventory levels.

Thanks for that. And then switching gears to a different part. The more cyclical parts of your business where you've had a few more headwinds, how are you thinking about the recovery curve where you sit here today? Obviously, prepared remarks imply that trends are starting to get a little better. Aren't seeing the bigger stuff yet, but at least we're starting to see some progress. Maybe just some thoughts on that cyclical progression and what level of optimism there is right now.

Yes. I think the biggest level of optimism we referenced is it's nice to see commercial filtration starting to at least move sequentially better. And I think we said for this particular full year, it's still not going to catch up to where it was, but it is good to see the openings and things starting to drive that commercial filtration space again. So that was encouraging in the quarter. We saw some sell-through better than Q4, and we think that continually sequentially gets better throughout the year. As far as Industrial & Flow, I think we saw more break and fix and certainly, the recovery of some of the break and fix in those spaces. But we also started to see quote activity, order activity and backlog start to really move sequentially, Mike. So I think those are definitely where I was referring to encouraging, and we weren't ready to call that earlier, and I think we're now saying that we're sequentially seeing ourselves come off the bottom in the IFT side.

Good stuff. Appreciate it. Have a good one.

Thank you.

Hi, guys. Congrats on the execution in a kind of a challenging supply environment, I guess. Just first of all, what are you assuming for price for the year?

We should see an improvement in price to, call it, 2.5% to 3%. I think earlier in the year, we were probably down in the low 2s. So we are seeing a nice uptick there.

When will the price increase take effect? Will there be multiple opportunities for adjustments, or is it a one-time increase in the spring? What is the timeline for these price changes?

Yes. Steve, I'll take the first part. I'll have Bob give you a little bit more of the details, but we've increased those prices across the board where we're going to. But we're still servicing some backlog on the old pricing that works its way through in Q2. So we don't expect to realize those price increases fully until Q3 and Q4.

Yes, I would agree with that. We'll start to see them, Steve, in Q3.

When will you implement that? When will it be available in the channel?

We have already implemented it, Steve. However, we're still fulfilling the backlog from orders placed before the price increases, so that will continue into Q2.

It seems that in the second half, the projections appear to be flat overall, with steady sales and profits. In fact, margins could be slightly lower compared to last year. Given the pricing changes expected in the second half, I would have anticipated improvements in margins. Can you clarify if you expect the pricing and inflation factors to balance out over the year? What are your expectations for that overall?

Yes. For the back half of the year, so the headwind we are facing is continued higher inflation. But when you look at what we've done with price and the productivity that we're seeing, we will offset the inflationary headwind. So really, what it comes down to is if the higher end of our guidance does show some revenue growth, but the margin expansion is really impacted by the strategic growth investments that we're making in the back half.

Got it. And then one just last one for you. I guess this kind of complexion of the second half, if you're going to be reasonably flat, the toughest comps are obviously in consumer. So if your business is flat, should we think about the IFT business as being up and consumer being down? Is that kind of the right profile for second half?

Yes. For the second half, overall, again, if you take the higher end of guidance, you will see our Consumer Solutions grow. And then IFT, as we mentioned, will grow in the back half and for the full year, which is good to see. The question, I think, we have right now is can we drive have a better back half. And so again, not wanting to get ahead of ourselves, we have the natural demand that continues in many of our businesses. So at this point, I think our guidance is very prudent on the top line. And the question is can we do better.

Yes, great. Thanks, guys. Appreciate the details.

Thank you, Stephen.

Hey, Josh Pokrzywinski. Happy Earth Day.

Happy Earth Day, John. Thanks for taking the question.

To start off on the pool front, it's no surprise that we should discuss what's happening beneath the surface regarding replacement versus new installations or wallet share versus like-for-like comparisons. While 50% growth is significant, it's important to acknowledge that the past year has presented a unique environment, and comparisons play a role. Ultimately, I’m not sure we’ve observed substantial increases in breakage utilization. In theory, the potential is always there, but how much of the current strength reflects the upsell of the pool pad that you've mentioned compared to the volume aspect?

Yes. That's a good question, Josh. And it's mostly on the upgrades, candidly. I mean we've got two things happening. We've got the sale of homes in warm weather climates have done really well, right? So we've seen a change and a big push to get to warm weather climates. And I think people are not traveling as much and using their backyard more as their vacation destination spot so they become more aware. Without a doubt, and we shared this, we've seen a lot better penetration than we've ever seen before as people want to extend the season and make sure that their pool water is the temperature that they want. But where we've been excited is we've seen the upgrades around the energy-efficient lighting, the automation and also the self-chlorination and the self-saltwater capability. So the maintenance of the pool side is well, Josh. So it's been a really good situation because the more we made those consumers aware, the more they were able to expand the offering. And we think the more that expands, the more people talk about it, and I think we believe that's a trend that's going to sustain.

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe a question or a toss-up between you and Bob on the supply chain element for 2Q. Might be a little hard to answer, but if you guys could get infinite supply, what is that worth? Like how much is that bottlenecking holding back near-term results?

Yes. I think we will address that together, Josh. First, I want to express my gratitude to our supply team. We are making every effort to access the materials and raw materials we require. I mention this because we are experiencing two developments. We are focusing on getting the volume out rather than on negotiations. Our primary concern is securing available material, which ties into the inflation issues Bob mentioned earlier. Bob will provide more insights on what is achievable.

Yes. We began with the $866 million that we achieved in Q1. Given the backlog and demand, the question arises as to why our top guidance is closer to $830 million. We believe that the potential range of $30 million to $35 million reflects what could be possible if there were no supply shortages. I want to acknowledge the supply team for their efforts; just two weeks ago, that number was double, and they are improving the allocation of materials we are receiving. This is how I perceive the situation. Additionally, we are facing inflationary challenges in the second quarter.

Got it. That is awesome detail. Really appreciate the color there, guys.

Hey, good morning, everybody.

Hey, Rob.

So a lot of things went right in the quarter. I know managing through this isn't easy. I just wanted a little bit more breakdown on water treatment, which is growing nicely. I don't know if you can characterize or split resi and commercial stabilizing, you said, I think. And just whether you're on a sustainable path there on penetration, et cetera, just talk about the drivers there. Thank you.

Yes. I appreciate it, Rob. Thank you. I mean I think water treatment has been doing really well and also is residentially exposed. I would say our R&I flow business has also seen a nice pop on the IFT side relative to demand. And obviously, they're being overshadowed by the strength in pool and the success of pool. So it's great to talk about it, Rob. I mean I think we've got several things going on. We've definitely spent a lot of time upgrading our capability around our products to sell to the independent dealer channel. And people are more aware of the water in their home these days, and they're doing things to try to make it better, either for base reasons or trying to improve the overall benefits regarding their water. So we've got a lot of interest, and we've been expanding our portfolio to be more consumer-friendly. We've also, through the acquisitions that we purchased, through Pelican and RainSoft, have the direct access to the consumer through the affiliate channel and/or building out the services network ourselves. And so thank you for noticing that growth. We feel we're making great progress there, and we're excited. And that's why I'm excited about Ken's. I mean we just now put a services extension on top of our ability to sell products into the foodservice space, where we've always had a nice product offering. And that allows us to create end-to-end solutions, inclusive of the service and the ability to take care of the customer when the customer needs us to show up. So really building out that part of the portfolio, and we really like the momentum, and we're seeing the fruits of the work.

Hey, guys. So a lot of moving pieces around inflation and supply chain investments. Can you just remind us how you're thinking about incrementals in Consumer Solutions before and how you're thinking about them now, kind of given all that, those moving pieces? Is it same, better or worse?

It's generally the same, Jeff. We're comfortable in that 35% drop-through, which we actually did in Q1. And it might vary a little bit based upon the price-cost squeeze. And then the only thing that's different in the back half of the year is those accelerated investments as Bob mentioned. So that's it. And you might ask why is those investments delayed. It's not like we did anything differently. We're trying to get those people in place and the assets that we're at to, digital, IoT, smart connected solutions. I mean, those are tight labor markets with a lot of people chasing the same skill set. So it's just more of a timing issue to put them in. And then we're also expanding the markets that we're serving. And so that's the investments that we're really talking about in the back half of the year. We think about it as that 35% is drop-through, and then it's only muted by any incremental investment that Bob mentioned.

Okay. Great. And then it seems like the early buy shifted for the industry from 4Q to 1Q. Is that more a function of just the demand environment we're in today? Or do you think this is kind of a new paradigm or a new structure where you kind of persistently do the early buy a little bit later? And just on the $35 million, is that just shift into 3Q as you catch up?

The answer to the second one is yes. We're hopeful we catch up throughout the quarter. And if we're not, we're expecting that to be early Q3 when we get that supply chain. As Bob said, the supply chain issue is getting better every single day. It's just a matter of how we muted them or mitigated enough to be able to solve it by the end of Q2. As far as the early buy, I mean, just remind you, I mean, this is a seasonal business. It's not necessarily cyclical where we do the early buy in pool. And we're trying to manage our capacity levels. So we're not spiking our labor and then laying the labor off. So we work to trying to fulfill those labor outlets. And basically, when you get this type of demand, there really isn't room for that early buy because you're full out trying to meet the ongoing demand and you're working through that season, Jeff. So you're right. I mean it feels like it didn't necessarily happen, and I would just say that it didn't shift. It just got to the need to sell to the market need.

Hi, good morning. Maybe I just wanted to circle back to the investment spend. You've mentioned it a bunch of times. And you gave some good color about some of the areas those funds are being dispersed toward. But perhaps maybe just help me understand the scale of that investment spend in the second half. Or is it just a sort of toggling function to sort of solve for that incremental margin that you're looking for? That's what I wanted to sort of better understand. And whether that deferral of investment spend, is that pushing much into next year as well? Or do you think the catch-up this year gets you to the right level medium term?

Yes. So let me tell you where we're spending it and strategically why. So in pool, it's really around how do we be a destination site through our pool brands on the pad to bring you into Pentair, help you understand what's available and then connect you to our channel. So there's no desire to work around our channel. We want to go directly through our dealers and our distributors to continue to service you, but we want you to come and learn what's available to you to help pull demand. And that's where the investment has been going in pool as well as making sure that we've got a consumer services mindset around both services that you might need as well as making sure there's someone to answer the phone or chat with you upon your particular challenges and then connecting you with the dealer to solve that for you. And we've been steadily seeing more consumer inquiries into our service network than we've traditionally seen the dealer network. So we've had to augment that and build that up. In water treatment, it's about accelerating our residential services offering, building our brand and again, being more effortless to do business with, which you should read into as digitally transacting. And that's where those investments have been. And then on the IFT side, as we mentioned before, we believe we've got a nice biogas upgrading capability and sustainable gas. And we want to shift the investments to North America, which traditionally been on the European side. And we think that we've got a nice run rate ahead of us to grow that sustainable gas offering over the next several years. So that's where the investments are focused. And then obviously, one of those categories, we just filled in with the acquisition of Ken's, which was a buy investment platform instead of trying to do it on our own. And as far as the actual dollars, Bob?

Yes. Just to help you quantify that, on our last call, we talked about that spend being roughly 1% of revenue. We spent a little bit of that in the first quarter. But as John mentioned, it does ramp as we head toward the back of the year. So think about a little bit more in Q2, but the majority of that spend, in Q3 and Q4.

I see. And then at that point, you're at the right level sort of medium term? Or does it go up again next year?

No. I think at that level, we would expect to see that more flatten from a year-over-year standpoint because then, we've jump-started these programs, got the right people in. And then we're in more of a percentage of sales basis. Thank you, Stephanie, and thank you for joining us today. We believe Pentair is in the right space for the future. We believe we have great well-positioned businesses. We are accelerating investments in focused, higher-growth, strategic priorities. This includes our leading pool business and our growing water treatment business. Transformation is important to us, and we believe that our focus on our transformation efforts will drive higher levels of accountability and performance. Transformation should help us better allocate our resources as well as drive longer-term margin expansion. Our balance sheet remains quite strong, and we believe this provides an additional lever of value creation. Thank you for your continued interest, and we look forward to sharing more of our story at our Investor Day on June 10. Stephanie, you can conclude the call.