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Simon Property Group Inc

Exchange: NYSESector: Real EstateIndustry: REIT - Retail

Simon Property Group, Inc. is an equity real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets across the globe. It engages in investment, ownership, and management of properties. It primarily invests in regional malls, Premium Outlets, The Mills, and community/lifestyle centers to create its portfolio. Simon Property Group, Inc. was founded in 1960 and is based in Indianapolis, Indiana, with additional offices in Delaware, United States; and New York, New York.

Did you know?

Generated $3.4 in free cash flow for every $1 of capital expenditure in FY25.

Current Price

$202.44

-0.62%

GoodMoat Value

$284.99

40.8% undervalued
Profile
Valuation (TTM)
Market Cap$66.09B
P/E14.29
EV$88.60B
P/B12.69
Shares Out326.47M
P/Sales10.38
Revenue$6.36B
EV/EBITDA13.13

Simon Property Group Inc (SPG) — Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Apr 5, 202618 speakers6,086 words106 segments

AI Call Summary AI-generated

The 30-second take

Simon Property Group had a solid start to 2025, with results beating their plan. The company is doing well, but management is being cautious because new tariffs on imported goods could disrupt retailer inventories and sales later this year. They are watching the situation closely but remain confident in their long-term strategy.

Key numbers mentioned

  • Real estate FFO per share was $2.95 for the first quarter.
  • Malls and Premium Outlet occupancy was 95.9% at quarter-end.
  • Retailer sales per square foot for Malls and Premium Outlets were $7.33 for the quarter.
  • Dividend per share for Q2 is $2.10, a $0.10 year-over-year increase.
  • Full-year 2025 real estate FFO guidance is reaffirmed at $12.40 to $12.65 per share.
  • Signed leases in the quarter totaled 1,500 for more than 5.1 million square feet.

What management is worried about

  • Tariff uncertainty, particularly on goods from China, could impact retailer inventory levels and sales.
  • There is potential pressure on local "mom and pop" retailers if trade tensions do not stabilize.
  • The company is seeing some softness in traffic at border assets in Canada and Mexico due to current tensions.
  • The overall economic environment feels uncertain, making sales difficult to forecast.
  • Management is instinctively more cautious about capital allocation and development starts due to macroeconomic headlines.

What management is excited about

  • Leasing demand remains strong and is essentially "business as usual" despite tariff talk.
  • The company has already re-leased over half of the former Forever 21 spaces and expects to more than double the rent from those spaces.
  • Their international portfolio in Europe and Asia is performing very well and is stable.
  • The Catalyst brands (like JCPenney and Brooks Brothers) are showing notable improvement and are on track for positive EBITDA this year.
  • The recent change to the de minimis rule is seen as a positive that will help defend their retailers against direct-to-consumer competition from China.

Analyst questions that hit hardest

  1. Steve Sakwa (Evercore ISI) - Tariff impact on leasing and sales: Management gave a very long, detailed response acknowledging significant uncertainty, the material impact of even reduced tariffs, and that it could push results toward the midpoint of guidance.
  2. Greg McGinniss (Scotiabank) - Adjusting capital plans for uncertainty: The response was notably cautious, with David Simon stating they are "instinctively more cautious right now" and even delaying a non-material development because "it just didn't feel like the right time."
  3. Vince Tibone (Green Street) - Department store closure outlook: Brian McDade gave a complex, non-committal answer about varying impacts by retailer and wholesale relationships, concluding he didn't anticipate "any significant changes at this moment."

The quote that matters

Our A-rated fortress balance sheet with over $10 billion in liquidity sets us apart.

David Simon — Chairman and CEO

Sentiment vs. last quarter

This section is omitted as no direct comparison to a previous quarter's transcript or summary was provided.

Original transcript

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Simon Property Group First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Tom Ward, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

O
TW
Thomas WardSenior Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you, Joe, and thank you for joining us this evening. Presenting on today's call are David Simon, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President; and Brian McDade, Chief Financial Officer. A quick reminder that statements made during this call may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and actual results may differ materially due to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and other factors. We refer you to today's press release and our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of the risk factors relating to those forward-looking statements. Please note that this call includes information that may be accurate only as of today's date. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included within the press release and the supplemental information in today's Form 8-K filing. Both the press release and the supplemental information are available on our IR website at investors.simon.com. Our conference call this evening will be limited to one hour. For those of you who would like to participate in the question-and-answer session, we ask that you please respect our request to limit yourself to one question. I am pleased to introduce David Simon.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Thank you, Tom. Good evening, everyone. We're off to a good start for 2025 with results that exceeded our plan. We completed the acquisition of The Mall Luxury Outlets in Florence and Sanremo, Italy and opened our first outlet in Jakarta, Indonesia. We continue to enhance our retail real-estate platform through development, redevelopment and acquisitions. Our A-rated fortress balance sheet with over $10 billion in liquidity sets us apart, and we have the lengthy track record of adapting our capital allocation and operating strategy to confront and take advantage of diverse macroeconomic cycles. And now I'm going to turn it over to Brian, who will cover our first quarter results and we'll take it from there.

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

Thank you, David and good evening. Real estate FFO was $2.95 per share in the first quarter compared to $2.91 in the prior year. Domestic and international operations had a very good quarter and contributed $0.14 of growth, driven by a 5% increase in lease income. As anticipated, interest income, land sales and lease settlements were $0.10 lower year-over-year. We signed 1,500 leases for more than 5.1 million square feet in the quarter. Approximately 25% of leasing activity for the quarter were new deals and approximately 80% of the leases expiring through 2025 are complete ahead of last year at this point in time. Malls and Premium outlet occupancy at the end-of-the quarter was 95.9%, an increase of 40 basis points compared to the prior year. The mills occupancy was 98.4%, an increase of 70 basis points compared to the prior year. Average base minimum rents for the malls and outlets increased 2.4% year-over-year and the mills increased 3.9%. Malls and Premium outlet retailer sales per square foot were $7.33 per foot for the quarter. Occupancy cost at the end of the quarter was 13.1%, driving domestic NOI, which increased 3.4% year-over-year for the quarter and portfolio NOI, which includes our international properties at constant currency grew 3.6% for the quarter. First quarter funds from operation were $1.0 billion or $2.67 per share compared to $1.33 billion or $3.56 per share last year. As a reminder, the prior year results include $0.81 per share in after-tax net gains primarily from the sale of the company's remaining ownership interest in ABG. First quarter results include a $0.17 per share loss primarily from the non-cash unrealized mark-to-market in fair value adjustments on the Klepierre exchangeable bonds. This was offset by a $0.07 gain on the sale of securities. The non-cash loss on the derivative is due to the outperformance of Klepierre stock price, which increased 11% in the first quarter. The first quarter also includes an after-tax loss of $0.05 per share related to Catalyst Brands restructuring costs. Turning to our development activity. At the end of the quarter, development projects were underway across all platforms, with our share of the net cost of $944 million to a blended yield of 9%. Approximately 40% of net costs are mixed use projects. We expect to begin construction on additional projects in the coming months, including a residential development at Brea Mall and new retail, dining and outdoor spaces at the Shops at Mission Viejo both in Orange County, California, as well as the redevelopment of a former department store at the Fashion Mall at Keystone in Indianapolis into dynamic mixed uses. Starts for this year will be approximately $500 million. Turning to the balance sheet. We were active in the first quarter where we completed 12 secured loan transactions totaling approximately $2.6 billion. The weighted average interest rate on these loans was 5.73%. At the end of the quarter, we had net-debt to EBITDA of 5.2 times and our fixed charge coverage ratio was incredibly strong at 4.6 times. As David mentioned earlier, we are well positioned to allocate capital and be opportunistic through various economic cycles. Turning to the dividends. Today, we announced our dividend of $2.10 per share for the second quarter, a year-over-year increase of $0.10 or 5%. The dividend is payable on June 30th. Turning to guidance for '25. We are reaffirming our full year 2025 real estate FFO guidance range of $12.40 to $12.65 per share. As we stated in February, when issuing our initial full-year 2025 guidance, our range reflects real estate FFO and does not include OPI. We expect the results to trend towards the middle of the range given the current macroeconomic and tariff uncertainty potentially impacting retailer sales. With that, thank you to everyone. David and I are available for your questions.

Operator

Thank you. And the first question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. Please proceed.

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SS
Steve SakwaAnalyst

Yes, thanks. Good evening. David and Brian. I guess I know the tariff situation has certainly been de-escalated, but I'm just curious what sort of conversations you are maybe having with retailers kind of leading up to today's announcement and how do you think it impacts, if at all the leasing? And I guess, Brian, you sort of talked about sales, but I guess what are you baking in for sales today maybe versus three months ago?

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Yes. Hi, Steve. So let me take that and Brian can add color. So it just on the new leasing, when we ask obviously every week to the leasing team, but it's only affected four deals that I am aware of from one European retailer because they were worried about the import cost bringing over goods from Europe and it wasn't big deals but that's the only one. Other than that, at this point, it hasn't really affected any demand. And we're hopeful that it won't because, as you know, retailers are looking long-term on these stores and at some point, we're all hopeful that this stabilizes. Projecting and predicting sales is really difficult because to the extent that there is a retailer that imports goods from China, even with today's kind of reduction in kind of tit for tat, you're still talking about 30% tariff, which is material. And at this point, many retailers are either holding off, offering new goods from China, which could affect their inventory levels, or trying to source it elsewhere, which they may or may not be successful with. And so it's a relatively big unknown to the extent that there is a reliance on China even on today's recent news. And given margins those tariffs in the 30-ish percent, I think are going to give retailers pause whether or not they can afford to have goods shipped to them from China. To the extent that it is, in the more flat 10%, I think it's really retailer dependent. I think they're going to probably operate business as usual. I think they'll try to pass a little bit on to the consumer, they'll try to get the manufacturers to take some of it and they may take some of it as well. But it shouldn't affect how they operate and how they inventory their stores, but China still is a big unknown and so that's why, as Brian said in his comments, look, our sales were relatively flat. If we were relatively flat, as you know, we have a history of certainly beating the midpoint and always trying to achieve the upper end and even higher, it's impossible for us to say what sales are right now just because we don't know inventories. I mean, I think we're going to obviously land within our original guidance, which is good given all the uncertainty, but we're thinking that inventory levels could be affected because of the China tariffs, even with these reduced ones as I went through. And so I think it has the potential to affect sales. And that's why we're being a little more conservative and we're thinking it's probably going to be more in the midpoint, one quarter into a very uncertain volatile thing. But I'd also say to you, the good news is other than this one anecdote on some small deals from one European retailer. Demand is still strong and we haven't seen across the board by any stretch of imagination reduction in the leasing demand. And so that in a nutshell is the latest and greatest, I'm sure if you ask us in a couple of weeks we might have something new, but you've got retailers that are scrambling. Now remember the way this thing works is that for retailers, the US retailers pay the tariff, so they can't get the goods on the boat unless they pay the tariffs at the time, it's delivered to the boat. So that's why you're probably seeing a lot of boats not make the journey over or a lot of inventory at the shores in China. And so it's an unusual situation that we're just going to have to see how it shakes out. Now we're obviously pleased to see that at least the relationships seem to be thawing and seem to be on a more constructive path. But how it all shakes out, I mean our guess is as good as yours or your economist or anybody else.

SS
Steve SakwaAnalyst

Thank you. That's it from me.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Sure. Thank you, Steve.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Craig Mailman with Citi. Please proceed.

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CM
Craig MailmanAnalyst

Hey, good afternoon. Just as a follow-up there, David, that was really helpful providing your thoughts. I'm just interested in where you think kind of retailers stand from an inventory perspective in terms of when they do start to run-out to the extent shipments from China don't kind of reaccelerate here following the thawing. And have you seen that kind of pull-forward the demand in your traffic data here in April and May as consumers kind of pull-forward to get ahead of the tariffs? Just kind of curious how you think that plays out for just a cadence of retail sales this year. And the last piece just how you think the de minimis rule impacts some of your retailers too. Do you feel like they get a market-share boost from the loss of that kind of avenue for retail for customers to some extent.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Yes. So let me address this because I can recall it better this way. Tom took notes. The de minimis rule is beneficial for American companies, but it negatively impacted many retailers who paid tariffs and couldn't escape that loophole. A couple of Chinese companies exploited this situation, so it's a positive outcome that I want to commend the administration for addressing this loophole. I hope it continues, as it will significantly help our retailers defend against Chinese companies selling directly to consumers. That was extremely important. Regarding Forever 21, I wish this change had come a few years earlier since it would have equalized the competitive landscape, but it is what it is. As for your second question, or possibly the first, we haven't observed any significant pull-forward in sales from our retailers. Looking at the data through April, which we will receive soon, there were a few factors to consider. Firstly, Easter fell in April this year instead of March, which affected last year’s sales figures. Additionally, we experienced severe weather in February affecting outlet centers. Overall, traffic for the quarter was slightly down, but if we compare year-to-date figures through April, traffic is actually up, thanks to the inclusion of April data. Malls are performing well, while outlets are relatively flat. However, we've noticed some decline in traffic regarding our border assets in Canada and Mexico, likely due to current tensions. As those tensions ease, I hope traffic returns to normal. Now, addressing your first question about retailers and their exposure to China, I believe they have another month or so to determine their strategy for Q4 inventory. Many have already cut back their reliance on China substantially. Generally, retailers are considering how to manage this 10% tariff approach, and they are either looking to source goods elsewhere or delaying decisions related to China. They likely have about a month to decide whether to move forward, and this could impact inventory levels in Q4, but it's challenging to make a general statement because it varies by retailer. European retailers, on the other hand, appear to have better control over their production processes, and I don't anticipate any major changes from them; their focus will likely remain on pricing strategies for consumers. I hope this answers your questions comprehensively.

CM
Craig MailmanAnalyst

Yes. You got it. Thank you.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Samir Khanal with Bank of America. Please proceed.

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SK
Samir KhanalAnalyst

Good afternoon, everybody. David, I guess given the uncertainty out there and kind of what you said retailers scrambling to make sort of long-term decisions, has your approach changed in kind of how you're dealing with your tenants, whether when you're negotiating leases, whether it's on new deals, whether it's pricing or TIs. I mean how are you approaching the situation sort of here given the uncertainty out there for tenants to make long-term decisions? Thanks.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Well, like I said, the only anecdotal thing is one retailer backing out of four outlet deals that, but that's not a big deal to us because they were replacement tenants that we already have leased. Honestly, as I said earlier, it's business as usual. So supply is still very much constrained, demand is still strong and the reliance, as I said earlier from China is much reduced. So right now, I can't guarantee it, but right now it's business as usual. I don't think we're doing really anything out of the ordinary in dealing with them. Obviously to the extent they have a specific issue, we'll try to address it, but they have come a long way on their supply chain and been reducing the Chinese imports for a long time. I do worry a little bit about, not the bigger ones. Again, we haven't seen I think the bigger retailers have sophisticated supply chains and long-term relationships with suppliers everywhere. I do think the main street retailers, local moms and pops, we all need as a country to be focused on. I think they could have more, again, we haven't seen it, but if I had to venture if things don't stabilize, which today is a good step, but if they don't ultimately stabilize, I think you'll have potential pressure points on the local mom and pop retailers that are important to the country and obviously we do lease space to them. So again I'm not hopefully I'm not anticipating we're not seeing a problem, but I do worry about that a little bit more than say XYZ that has 100 stores.

SK
Samir KhanalAnalyst

Thank you, David.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Sure.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please proceed.

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MG
Michael GoldsmithAnalyst

Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Can you talk about the back leasing of those Forever 21 boxes? What types of tenants are you seeing interest in taking the space? Those are tend to be bigger boxes. So probably you need to break them up? And how quickly can you get lead paying tenants today?

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Yes, look, I think the demand has been really good. We've got basically over half of them leased. With those economics, we've already replaced the rent that Forever 21 was paying us. So and I think it's a combination of, we're doing a lot of business with Primark, Zara's of the world, they're in some cases splitting it up and we're very focused on it. But we will more than double at the end of the day and it will take a couple of years, but all-in to at least basically 100 stores. But we'll more than double the rent at the end of the two-year process. Brian, do you agree with that?

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

Yes, no, absolutely. We got about 50 of them addressed. We think those 50, about half of those start commencement of rent this year, the other half next year with the balance kind of finishing out as we complete our leasing efforts, Michael. But to David's point, we do think rents are going to at least double.

MG
Michael GoldsmithAnalyst

Thank you very much. Good luck in the second quarter.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Thank you.

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

Thank you, Michael.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please proceed.

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AG
Alexander GoldfarbAnalyst

Hey, good afternoon out there. And David I appreciate your comment about the mom and pop retailers. Pretty interesting especially given your platform. So a question, if I hear you correctly, it sounds like the consumer is fine despite what we read in online in the newspapers, et cetera of recession, job loss, whatever. But it sounds like the consumer is fine, the shopper is fine. It sounds like the real wildcard are inventory levels. So it sounds like restaurants and the other similar services that aren't impacted by tariffs are doing well. So is that correct that we should, the real concern to earnings is really about inventory levels and whether they can sell out products and hit percent rents or are there other things that are playing into your outlook?

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

No, I would say it's primarily about sales. Sales involve more than just inventory levels; they also reflect consumer sentiment, which is difficult to predict. Currently, I'm seeing decent performance, with our sales remaining flat. Two retailers are also experiencing flat sales. While we don't yet have April sales data, it's been flat through the end of March. Additionally, I previously mentioned that Easter falls in Q1 instead of Q2 this year. Therefore, I anticipate that when I receive the April numbers, they will show an increase in sales for the first four months compared to last year. I believe consumers are generally doing well, but they seem to be exhibiting a bit more caution. I also feel that tourism may be slowing down; whether it’s from Mexican nationals, Canadians, or Europeans, I expect a cautious approach this year. We’ve noticed some trends at the border. On the flip side, the weaker dollar might compensate for that. However, I think we should proceed with caution regarding sales generated by non-US consumers. Overall, the economic environment feels somewhat uncertain, making it challenging to forecast sales. That said, we anticipate a cautious outlook, which is why we are being realistic about our expectations given the current circumstances. Ultimately, sales are the key variable that could influence our results to a certain extent.

AG
Alexander GoldfarbAnalyst

And David, if I could just ask clarification, your comments on the US consumer is that the same for your European and Asian portfolios or those consumers are experiencing different trends in the US?

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

There's actually our portfolio, our investment in Klepierre. Japan is all internationally, it's all very good, right? So their playing field there hasn't changed. We don't expect that whole business, whether it's Europe or Asia, to change significantly for us; it's basically stable. We're outperforming in Europe and in Asia. Obviously, there are fluctuations—Korea could be up, Japan could be down—but generally, it's proceeding according to plan. I don't expect any change there. The US consumer visiting these places doesn't really drive our business.

AG
Alexander GoldfarbAnalyst

Thank you.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

It's more of the Germans going to Italy and that kind of stuff. Certainly more likely the Chinese go to Europe than they come here. Okay? Operator, I think we are ready for next.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

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CB
Caitlin BurrowsAnalyst

Hi, everyone. Maybe one thing that's tougher to predict than the tenant sales results is OPI. But with that in mind, I guess wondering, David, if you could go through some of the OPI performance in 1Q kind of talk about what's going on there. And I know they aren't part of guidance, but just trying to understand how some of the revenue and cost synergies that were planned for 2025 are going expectations for those to progress throughout the year? And then I guess separately would be how the tariff situation could impact JCPenney and the other Catalyst brands this year?

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

OPI showed improvement, comprising three main businesses: our e-commerce venture, RGG, and ShopSimon, where we own about 45%; our investment in Catalyst Group, which includes brands like Penny, Brooks Brothers, and Lucky, where we hold a 39% stake; and our 50% share in Jamestown. OPI is straightforward and not the core focus of our everyday operations, although we are devoted to creating value there alongside ABG and our other investments. In response to your question, we observed quarter-over-quarter growth, while the other two businesses are performing steadily. The Catalyst brands experienced notable improvement this quarter, partly due to the synergies from their merger and the bankruptcy of F21, which has now concluded, allowing them to benefit from these synergies. Penny is working on sourcing goods with reduced dependence on China, though they still have some reliance there, and they need to make sourcing decisions in the coming weeks while negotiating with suppliers. They have leverage in these negotiations because the US is a significant market, yet they face challenges in predicting sales, much like other retailers. However, brands like Brooks Brothers are thriving, achieving their targeted synergies, and their business is on track. Despite the current uncertainties, we anticipate Catalyst will achieve positive EBITDA this year, even considering the impact of tariffs and economic fluctuations moving forward. We encourage you not to be overly concerned about this. We are open to addressing all inquiries, except for the price of a cotton short from Brooks Brothers, which I might know but prefer not to be overly detailed.

CB
Caitlin BurrowsAnalyst

Thanks, David.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

And Tom wearing. Actually he is wearing, Tom, you look very nice. Okay, that's a good looking shirt actually.

TW
Thomas WardSenior Vice President, Investor Relations

Brooks Brothers.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

It's better than those. You used to wear those weird shirts. Okay. So I think he's a Brooks Brothers consumer.

CB
Caitlin BurrowsAnalyst

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Greg McGinniss with Scotiabank. Please proceed.

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GM
Greg McGinnissAnalyst

Hi. Hey, David. Hey, Brian. The balance sheet continues to be in great shape. But has macroeconomic uncertainty reached a point where you're making adjustments to capital plans to maybe become a bit more defensive, whether that's reconsidering certain development activity, CapEx or your appetite for acquisitions or otherwise?

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

That's a great question. We're still making a long-term decision. We feel fortunate because, as far back as I can remember, even with challenges like COVID and the financial recession, we have never overextended ourselves. In fact, we haven't even begun our major initiatives recently. We've been cautious from the start. While we have many opportunities and are carefully considering them, I would say we're instinctively more cautious right now. Our development pipeline is in place, but we are not rushing into anything. We anticipate that construction costs will rise. Therefore, we won't commence construction until we can ensure maximum pricing. For projects that are set to start, we are waiting until all costs are finalized before making any commitments. Caution is important for us right now, but that doesn't mean we won't pursue acquisitions or continue with our pipeline. However, it would be unwise not to be a bit more cautious.

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

Hey, Greg, I think the only thing I would add there is, as you know, as volatility increases, sometimes for us, opportunities increase. So we have a strong pipeline and we are clinical with our capital as you know. So nothing really materially changed, but obviously, a bit more caution relative to the headlines these days.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

I'll give you a simple example. I was just thinking out loud, but we had one development in Asia. I was going to say it, but it just didn't feel like the right time to do it just because it wasn't material. And it just feels like we should be a little more cautious. And again, I don't want to say that we aren't going to do a couple of deals here that could even be non-trivial. But caution is the word of order right now.

GM
Greg McGinnissAnalyst

Okay. So if I'm looking at the development pipeline, maybe we don't go much above this kind of $1 billion level for now and acquisitions still on the table, but of course, everything depends on the underwriting.

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

Well, Greg, I would say, as you heard me in my prepared remarks, we ultimately believe that we're going to start about $500 million of projects that are not included in that $1 billion spend level. So we are still advancing our projects that are ready to move forward, but we're just doing so thoughtfully.

GM
Greg McGinnissAnalyst

Okay. Thank you, Brian. Thanks, David.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Floris Van Dijkum with Compass Point. Please proceed.

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FD
Floris Van DijkumAnalyst

Thank you. David, you sound very chipper. I'm glad to hear your voice. Can I ask you about the SNO pipeline, where it stands today? I think end of the fourth quarter was the 250 basis points. Has that grown? And how do you see that, can you quantify that for us, and what's the timing of those rents coming online?

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

You may ask, but I'm going to have Brian answer that.

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

Floris, it's about 300 basis points today. From a SNO pipeline, we're spending about 300 basis points when you run the math on that. About $150 million worth of rent at our average rents. But again that's not all incremental to the existing kind of space. So it's not all going to be additive. We probably believe that the back half of this year, you're probably going to see 30% to 40% of that.

FD
Floris Van DijkumAnalyst

And the bulk of that will hit in '26 or is there also some spillover into '27?

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

'26 is sub '27. We are seeing some tenants looking out further or have been looking out further. So some of that is included in that as well.

FD
Floris Van DijkumAnalyst

And that includes the Forever 21 spaces as well?

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

It does, yes.

FD
Floris Van DijkumAnalyst

Great. Thank you.

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

The ones that are least signed up.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Vince Tibone with Green Street. Please proceed.

O
VT
Vince TiboneAnalyst

Hi. Good evening. Could you discuss trends in tenant sales in a little bit more detail? I'm curious if there are any specific tenants or categories that are having an outsized impact on the decline in trailing 12-month portfolio sales results?

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

I mentioned that one of the decreases is marginal, but we had two retailers that were essentially flat if we exclude them. Additionally, Easter was not accounted for in this comparison to the last 12 months. So, Vince, when you look at it closely, it’s relatively flat overall. Malls performed slightly better, while outlets were down a bit, partly due to the weather. We faced some tough conditions that you might not have encountered being in Southern California, where it's mostly sunny, but there are issues like earthquakes and fires. We also experienced some softness in certain border activities. Overall, though, our top 25 retailers are doing adequately, and aside from that, there’s nothing unusual regarding sales.

VT
Vince TiboneAnalyst

No, that's great to hear. I appreciate the color. And then one more, switching gears. You didn't mention department stores as it relates to any tariff related or inventory concerns. But I would imagine many of their products are sourced from China. I'm just curious, what is your current outlook for department store closures over the next few years? Has it changed at all with any of this macro uncertainty?

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

It really depends on the specific department store. For example, if a store doesn’t have a private label, it’s not sourcing its own goods and doesn’t face the tariff exposure from China that you might expect. The impact varies based on the department store in question and the size of its private label business. If they primarily sell branded products, their relationship with wholesalers is crucial. Wholesalers are responsible for paying the import fees for goods from China or elsewhere, and how they choose to negotiate and pass those costs on to the department store adds complexity to the situation, including what the consumer ultimately pays. Therefore, it's difficult to predict the overall outcome. Regarding department store closures, we haven't seen significant changes; for instance, the recent Macy's announcement did affect some stores. While it wouldn't be surprising to see some pruning like most retailers do at the store level, I don't anticipate any significant changes at this moment. The tariff situation really varies by department store and mainly affects those with larger private label businesses.

VT
Vince TiboneAnalyst

Great. Thank you.

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

Sure.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Mike Mueller with JPMorgan. Please proceed.

O
MM
Michael MuellerAnalyst

Yes, hi. Going back to sales for a second. I know you flagged Easter and two retailers, but would your recent sales trends be materially different, either positively or negatively if you look at things on an NOI-weighted basis?

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Yes, I would say we used to always do that. I didn't see it. We haven't. We don't do it by waiting anymore. We should do that, by the way. But that's just me telling my team. When I look at it, there’s no question that the better properties are improving. The simple answer is that sales would be up, and we can provide you with the specific numbers, but sales would definitely increase if you look at it on an NOI-weighted basis.

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

100 assets are up about 1.5%.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

And that doesn't include, that again, has Easter in March of last year, not April this year.

MM
Michael MuellerAnalyst

Got it. Okay, great. And maybe one other one. On the $500 million of development starts, I think, Brian, you mentioned mixed use components in there. How much of those dollars or even the overall redevelopment pipeline of those dollars are directly retail versus some other property type, whether it's office, hotel, resi?

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

I mean, effectively, the 60% that isn't mixed use, quite honestly, Michael.

MM
Michael MuellerAnalyst

Okay.

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

So 60% is retail and the other 40% would be mixed use all the other components.

MM
Michael MuellerAnalyst

Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

We have a significant residential development planned at Brea Mall, where we will be collaborating with a partner. Our portion of that project will contribute to 500 new starts. Overall, our total pipeline is larger than just this project, but we are focusing on our share of it.

MM
Michael MuellerAnalyst

Got it. Thank you.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Sure.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Ron Kamdem with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.

O
RK
Ronald KamdemAnalyst

Great. Hey, just wanted to go back to the guidance and I think some of the assumptions and inputs that have come into the last time. I appreciate it's still early, but how are you guys thinking about sort of domestic property NOI, bad debt as well as the $0.25 and $0.30 interest cost headwind for this year? Just how has those sort of changed since the last three months? Thanks so much.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

No change really.

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

Yes. No, no change in any of those masses. You can see the interest income starting to come down. It's about $0.06 in the quarter. We would expect that to carry forward through the balance of the year. You will also see some more interest expense come through as we refinance our debt later this year, slightly higher coupons on. But no material change to the other elements of the guidance used out in the beginning of the year.

RK
Ronald KamdemAnalyst

Great. Thanks so much.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Sure. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho Securities. Please proceed.

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RV
Ravi VaidyaAnalyst

Hi, this is Ravi Vaidya on the line for Haendel. I hope you all are doing well. I wanted to ask about your luxury tenants. What feedback are you receiving from them regarding sales and foot traffic? Has there been any pause or pullback in leasing demand from luxury tenants specifically?

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Not really. It really depends on the brand. Some brands are performing exceptionally well while others are in the process of bringing in new designers and refreshing their identity, but overall, this has been consistent with our expectations. They share a long-term perspective similar to ours, so there hasn't been a shift in attitude or dedication from these brands. In general, the business has its fluctuations, but sales have remained relatively stable. We haven't experienced significant sales growth, and much of that can be attributed to a few brands currently updating their designers and brand image.

RV
Ravi VaidyaAnalyst

Got it. Thank you.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Sure.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Please proceed.

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LT
Linda TsaiAnalyst

Yes, hi. In terms of not seeing pull forward in demand now, do you think there's a scenario where a pull-forward demand materializes in 3Q if consumers shop earlier for the holiday season, if there's concern that inventories are low or product is more expensive?

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

We have seen this happen historically. It's possible that margins could remain stable because prices for retailers might increase. I think we cannot dismiss this possibility since we've witnessed similar situations before. It remains to be seen, but I think it's feasible.

LT
Linda TsaiAnalyst

Thank you.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Sure.

Operator

The last question comes from the line of Omotayo Okusanya with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

O
OO
Omotayo OkusanyaAnalyst

Yes, good afternoon. Just a quick question on the $2.8 billion of debt refinancing. I wonder if you could just talk a little bit about what that market looks like today, any big change in terms of LTVs or how lenders are generally kind of looking at the asset class at this point?

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Lenders are quite comfortable with the asset class. We have received an upgrade and are remaining positive.

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

Look, from an S&P perspective. From an unsecured perspective, $1.6 billion of maturities here, we will refinance that back in the unsecured market throughout the balance of the year. And on the mortgage side, you continue to see vendors, CMBS, life insurance companies and other looking at the asset class and looking to deploy capital given our leverage levels. We are relatively conservative from a financial point of view as you know. And so that opens us up to an opportunity to refinance what we did earlier in the year was representative of that. Home loans done in the first quarter. I think the market is up for us to continue to refinance. But importantly we're rolling over our debt. We're not looking for incremental capital. We're not looking to extract excess proceeds to redeploy to our business. We're doing that with our free cash flow.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

But the good news is good retail real estate as people are very financially comfortable financing it and certainly our company.

OO
Omotayo OkusanyaAnalyst

Thanks, David.

DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Thank you.

BM
Brian McDadeChief Financial Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to David Simon for closing remarks.

O
DS
David SimonChairman and CEO

Okay. Just thank you, everybody. I think we'll talk soon. And I believe at least I do think the mood is getting more certain and more stable. So we're optimistic about this uncertainty resolving itself shortly.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

O