Skyworks Solutions Inc (SWKS) — Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Thank you, Lina. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Skyworks' third fiscal quarter 2023 conference call. With me today is Liam Griffin, our Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that our discussions will include statements relating to future results and expectations that are or may be considered forward-looking statements. Please refer to our earnings press release and recent SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K for information on certain risks that could cause actual outcomes to differ materially and adversely from any forward-looking statements made today. Additionally, the results and guidance we will discuss include non-GAAP financial measures consistent with our past practice. Please refer to our press release within the Investor Relations section of our company website for a complete reconciliation to GAAP. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Liam.

Thanks, Kris, and welcome, everyone. The Skyworks team continued to execute well during the third fiscal quarter despite macro headwinds, delivering inline revenue, along with solid profitability and strong cash flow. Specifically, we delivered revenue of $1.071 billion, posted earnings per share of $1.73, and generated $306 million of operating cash flow. During the quarter, we continued to advance our technology roadmap and introduced new high-performance connectivity and analog solutions while supporting product launches at an expanding set of mobile and broad market customers. As a result, we expect double-digit sequential revenue and earnings growth in the September quarter. Turning to our quarterly business highlights. In mobile and IoT, we secured 5G content for Android smartphones across all tiers. We delivered Sky5 platforms for broadband CPEs of leading North American carriers. We supported Wi-Fi 7 launches, our tri-band routers for NETGEAR and TP-Link and Powered Bell's Wi-Fi 6E home gateway. In addition, we continue to gain design win momentum with our 5 gigahertz cognitive wireless audio solutions, supporting Samsung's Q-Symphony soundbars. Across infrastructure and industrial, we enabled 5G small cell deployments with a top North American operator and ramped timing solutions for AI data centers at a leading cloud provider. In automotive, we continue to post double-digit year-over-year revenue growth while capturing design for telematics applications across a broad range of manufacturers. And we extended our engagements by leveraging our power isolation portfolio with a North American EV supplier. These highlights demonstrate Skyworks' technology leadership in mobile while executing on a diversification strategy in high-growth end markets. Additionally, several disruptive market trends are now unleashing new meaningful growth opportunities for Skyworks. For example, generative AI is proliferating on a global scale with rapid adoption, sparking exponential growth in the amount of data accessed from the network edge to the cloud. In turn, this will further drive complexity in wireless infrastructure networks as AI will require higher throughput, more secure connections, lower latency, and improved power management. Skyworks is uniquely positioned to benefit from these trends with our advanced integrated solutions, supporting wireless infrastructure, cellular connectivity for mobile devices as well as other leading wireless protocols used in billions of IoT products. With that, I will turn the call over to Kris for a discussion of last quarter's performance and our outlook for Q4.

Thanks, Liam. Skyworks' revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2023 was $1.071 billion, slightly above the midpoint of our outlook. Mobile was approximately 59% of total revenue with broad content gains across our largest customer product portfolio, offset by ongoing weakness in demand from the Android ecosystem as these OEMs continue to reduce inventories. Broad markets were approximately 41% of total revenue. We have another strong contribution from the automotive, infrastructure, and industrial markets. Gross profit was $509 million, resulting in a gross margin of 47.5%, in line with expectations. Gross margin was down 370 basis points year-over-year, mostly driven by temporary factory underutilization as we right-size our inventory levels. Operating expenses of $182 million declined 4% sequentially and year-over-year, given our ongoing focus on managing discretionary expenses. We generated $327 million of operating income, translating into an operating margin of 30.5%. We incurred $8 million of other expense, and our effective tax rate was 13.2%, driving net income of $276 million and diluted earnings per share of $1.73, exceeding the guidance that we provided during the last earnings call. Now turning to cash flow. Skyworks' business model continues to deliver very strong cash generation. Third fiscal quarter cash flow from operations was $306 million and capital expenditures were $31 million, resulting in free cash flow of $274 million. In fact, for the first three quarters of the fiscal year, we've generated record free cash flow of $1.350 billion and record free cash flow margin of 38%. Also during fiscal Q3, we paid $99 million in dividends and repaid $500 million of our 2023 notes at maturity. Now let's move on to our outlook for Q4 of fiscal 2023. We expect to deliver double-digit sequential revenue and earnings per share growth in the September quarter. Specifically, we anticipate revenue between $1.190 billion and $1.240 billion, at the midpoint of $1.215 billion, revenue for the quarter is expected to increase 13% sequentially. This outlook considers the seasonal impact from major product launches, leveraging our technology leadership, deep customer engagements, and world-class in-house manufacturing capabilities. Gross margin is projected to be in the range of 47% to 48%, reflecting the cyclical impact of lower factory utilization, while we are reducing our internal inventories. We expect operating expenses in the range of $178 million to $182 million, down 6.5% year-over-year at the midpoint as we continue to optimize operating efficiencies while making the necessary investments in technology and product development to further enhance our leadership position in mobile and drive diversification and growth in our broad markets business. Below the line, we anticipate roughly $8 million in other expense and an effective tax rate of 13.5% to 14%. We expect our diluted share count to be approximately 160 million shares. Accordingly, at the midpoint of the revenue range of $1.215 billion, we intend to deliver diluted earnings per share of $2.10, an increase of 21% sequentially. Lastly, given our conviction in Skyworks' long-term strategic outlook and consistent strong cash generation, we announced a 10% increase to our quarterly dividend to $0.68 per share. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Liam.

Thanks, Kris. Skyworks continues to deliver solid financial results despite a challenging macro environment. At the same time, we have further advanced our cutting-edge technologies and product roadmaps, targeting leading market segments that allow us to both expand and diversify our customer base. In addition, we are well positioned to benefit from powerful market trends, including the electrification and automation of vehicles, the expansion of the Internet of Things, the emergence of augmented and virtual reality, and the rise of artificial intelligence, just to name a few. Looking ahead, we expect to capitalize on these opportunities and deliver growth in our highly profitable business with sustainable strong cash generation. Operator, let's open the lines for questions.

Congratulations, Liam, Kris, and the Skyworks team. Solid results and very significant leverage in the September guide. My first question was regarding your largest customer who typically comes out with a new phone in the September time frame, Liam. Can you talk about your content at that new particular phone that might be coming out this time around?

Sure, Harsh. Of course, I can't give you all the granularity here. But obviously, our engagement and our technical vectors here continue to be strong. We expect to be among the leaders with our largest customer. We have the know-how. We have the breadth of technology. We have the people and the manufacturing capabilities to execute. So we look forward to that, but we really can't give any further guidance, Harsh, as you know. But we certainly feel like our opportunities with our largest customer continue to be quite large.

That's fair enough. Liam, if I can ask about your gross margin, you're working through some inventory that's affecting your margins. But if I look – let's just say I look forward, what would be some of the drivers that you have to improve your gross margins from where they are? Would they be more sort of industry dependent such as Android and sort of handset unit dependent? Or would there be more kind of Skyworks specific actions that would be bigger drivers of your gross margin?

Yes, Harsh, I'll take that question. So first of all, we delivered 47.5% in the June quarter, in line with expectations. And at the last earnings call, I indicated that gross margins were going to trend sideways for a couple of quarters. And so we just guided September 47% to 48%, which is pretty much in line with what I said during the last earnings call. The main issue why gross margins are temporarily a little bit lower compared to the historical levels, which was in the low 50s is mainly because of the macro headwinds and the softer demand environment, especially, as you indicated, in the Android ecosystem, while those customers are themselves reducing their internal inventory levels. And so as the business over a couple of quarters, will eventually get back and stronger, especially in Android as well as our broad markets business, we will see further improvements in our gross margins. In addition to this as well, Harsh, as you know, we are also reducing our own inventory levels on the balance sheet. This is probably something Skyworks specific that will take a couple of quarters. That is also contributing to the underutilization. But once we get to the more normalized levels of internal inventory, we will increase factory utilizations and ramp up the gross margins. I do expect the gross margins, again, over time, gradually improve to the low 50s. And then we will continue to work towards our target model of 53%.

Yes. And in addition to that, Harsh, as you may know, on the plus side, if you look at the cash generation that we're putting forth, very, very strong results. We're looking at 30% to 35% free cash flow, and that's sustainable. So you've got the margin hit, which is basically underutilization, but all of that has been paid for. And we have now the upside opportunity with free cash flow.

I guess just to start, a general market question, when we've been going through an inventory correction here for a number of quarters. It looks like it be the fourth quarter of double-digit revenue declines on a year-on-year basis. So where do we stand now with that inventory correction at your customers? Are we getting to the point where those customers are getting a bit back to normal? And what does that imply for the next couple of quarters in terms of revenue outlook?

Sure, Chris. Yes. I mean we do feel that the bottom is here but most of the markets here that we address, and we should be seeing improving financials as we go forward. And if you look at our guide today, it's pretty strong relative to the peers. But also the aperture that we have, not only with the larger players in mobile, which is certainly important, and we're very well positioned. But the broad markets business continues to grow. We're doing a lot of good work in automotive. We're doing a lot of good work in data center, a wide range of customers that are engaged with us that are also going through their cycle. But what we're seeing now is a bit of a turn up. We think it's sustainable. I think it's been a tough cycle in semis and tech in general. But our view is a little bit more optimistic now than it was last quarter for sure.

Okay. And just a follow-up on perhaps, China, specifically, and that's an area where we've heard some more cautious commentary from one of your peers. Do you think that demand from your China customers has also turned the corner? And what should we expect there? What are you seeing now? And what should you expect there?

Yes. It's starting to turn up, Chris. It's not where we want it to be yet, but we've been very, very careful the way we're guiding and have put kind of pretty low vectors on top line. So I don't think that we're going to be surprised at all in any way. So you look at that portfolio, it's still bumpy. But on the flip side, you have other markets in Android that are doing quite well. Samsung has an opportunity to continue to grow. You've got a few other players out there that are important. Google is another customer that has a lot of great opportunity in mobile and other products that we work with. But it feels like what we're seeing and the dialogue we have with our end customers is more constructive.

Could you provide some insights into the broad markets business? It seems like different segments are experiencing varying cycles, especially given what the semiconductor cycle has revealed. For instance, I would expect the automotive sector to be performing better while some consumer areas may be lagging. It would be helpful if you could outline what you are observing across the different subsectors.

Yes, absolutely. I'll provide as much information as I can on that. Regarding automotive, if you look back two to three years ago at Skyworks, we had minimal revenue in that sector. Now, we are significantly above a $200 million run rate, and we anticipate substantial acceleration due to the valuable IP and technology from the Silicon Labs transaction. Additionally, there is ongoing organic work within Skyworks aimed at creating more opportunities in vehicles, which is already becoming a vital part of our business. In terms of other new markets, such as cloud, we have secured design wins and are performing exceptionally well in crucial categories like Wi-Fi 6 and Wi-Fi 7. This segment is expected to grow within the industry, and we believe it will be important for RF players, with Skyworks leading in this area. Moreover, we now offer a variety of diversified products thanks to the Silicon Labs transaction, resulting in numerous design wins across multiple categories that are also expanding. There is plenty of potential for growth in these markets, all of which present significant opportunities for us. We are excited about our strategic enhancements to the sales force designed to penetrate more of these new markets and diversify our offerings. We feel confident about our progress, and while you'll need to see it reflected in the numbers, we are certainly working towards achieving those outcomes and believe we can succeed.

Just as my follow-up, Kris, maybe you could talk a little bit about your view into OpEx in the next few quarters. I think it was a hair below where we had modeled it anyway. And with some of the gross margin pressure given the utilization, maybe that makes sense. But there's a lot of opportunity ahead for you guys as well, particularly in the broad market to invest in. So if you could just kind of level set us on the next few quarters on the OpEx line, that would be helpful.

Yes. Thanks for that question. And so we can't control the macro, right? We can control some of the softness in some of the end markets that everybody in the industry is going through, but we can control, of course, our own operating expenses and the investments that we make in the business. And there, again, we're not hesitating. We are going to continue to invest and play to win. But at the same time, we're going to continue. And Skyworks is pretty good at that, continue to focus on efficiencies and really spending the dollars where we get the biggest bang for the buck. And as you saw from the prepared remarks, we have been able to trim down a little bit the OpEx, again, without cutting into our key technology development and product road maps, just focusing on effectiveness and efficient processes. Some of that was also we reduced a little bit of the variable compensation because of the top environment that we play in. That will kick back a little bit as we start the new fiscal year in the December quarter. But overall, I feel good about the level of spending that we do in support of our growth.

A couple of questions, if I could, please. First, there's been a lot of talk earlier this year that Skyworks is going to lose some share in Wi-Fi and the high-end handsets, not the CPE units or the stuff that goes into homes with handsets. And I guess there's some basis for that given how much content you have. I think you have and have had all the remote PAs for both 5-gigahertz and 2.5 as well as some flagship phones. Maybe you could provide a little color on that. Should we expect your share to moderate a little bit in the second half of this year? Do you feel like you're not giving up anything there given kind of your dominance of that space over the last several years, actually?

Yes. Ed, that has been a stalwart within the business, and the Wi-Fi cycle is very strong. We have a great position, 6 and going into Wi-Fi 7. I mean, you know these technologies, they're not easy, and there's a big leap between those two cycles, but we're in great shape. There's certainly a tremendous amount of consumer activity that hasn't been consummated. Wi-Fi is a really important technology. I think everybody knows that. And it's used in so many different applications that we try to really deliver the best solutions. And that's been very powerful for us and our customers like the technology. And I think we've got a great opportunity over the next several years.

The transmit DRx module has quickly become one of the most profitable modules in high-end phones. Your company has a strong presence in this area, but competition has ramped up considerably over the past year. Even Avago is attempting to enter the market, and Qorvo has been involved as well. Qualcomm has also made comments about this space. Generally, incumbency carries significant weight, as we have observed consistently with the iPhone over the years. Is that still true for this module? On the other hand, incumbency hasn’t really benefited anyone in the ultra-high band, where market shares have fluctuated. Last year, Qorvo and Avago shared some of that market, and this year, Qorvo has gained a bit more. I’m trying to understand if incumbency holds more value in the transmit diversity area and whether you think you'll maintain your leading position there.

Yes, I would look at it at a high level, not necessarily any 1 specific customer, but performance wins and flexibility wins and supply chain wins and having incredible people on our team that can work shoulder to shoulder in the lab to create amazing outcomes. And I think that really is what differentiates us. And it's not just talk. I mean these are real actions, the people in our fabs. Our factories we're using our own technologies, as you know, whether it's BAW, TC-SAW. All those recipes are really homegrown. I think it makes it unique for us. Our customers love it because they have a voice in the product. And if there's any fine-tuning or tweaking, technically, we could do it. So we love that. And some of those products that you mentioned, you know probably more than anybody. These are really, really hard products, really difficult with demanding customers. But if you're able to handle that and hit that fastball, it's great for the customer, and it's great for the supplier like us. So we're looking forward to more of that. We love challenges, and we're ready to do more.

This is Blake Friedman on for Vivek. I might have missed it in the prepared remarks, but I was hoping you could provide what percent of revenue came from your largest customer. And in addition to that, if you're able to quantify the percentage of your broad market sales that come from this largest customer, that would be helpful?

Yes. In the June quarter, our largest customer accounted for about 64% of total revenue, which is relatively flat, possibly up by around 1% year-over-year. This clearly shows that we continue to succeed with this large customer. As mentioned, we collaborated with them not just for the phone but across all their products, including those they currently have and those they plan to introduce in the future. Consequently, you will see Skyworks components in the iPhone, iPad, iMac, and various other products they will launch, which represents approximately 15% of that revenue with the customer.

Got it. Helpful. And then just maybe a longer-term question thinking about the recovery of certain aspects of the business. I know you derisked your China Android exposure early into the cycle, I believe they only account for 5% of sales or so. So as the market normalizes, I'm just trying to get a perspective on how we should think about your long-term China and broad disclosure in terms of total revenue?

Currently, our revenue from China is less than 5%, and the same goes for Samsung and Google. There is an inventory surplus with most of these customers, particularly at the phone level, which needs to be resolved. While we do see a gradual improvement in demand and bookings from these clients, the progress is slow. It's difficult to predict exactly when this will be resolved, but we anticipate significant growth potential as we move into early 2024, especially since we continue to secure designs with these customers. Once the business starts to ramp up again, we believe we are well positioned to benefit from that growth.

Thanks for the question. I would love to get into inventory and DOIs and play into your gross margins and underutilization. You kind of hit on this, but would love a little bit more detail in terms of your outlook longer term. So ultimately, where do you guys want your DOIs to go? When do you think you can get there? And I believe the assumption should be gross margins would kind of hang around here for a while until you reach that level? Is that the correct assumption?

Yes. So first, on inventory, we have now two consecutive quarters where inventory came down slightly in absolute dollars despite the fact that this was our two slowest seasonal quarters. Looking forward to September and December with much stronger revenue and strong sequential revenue growth into September and further into December. We will continue to substantially bring down inventory in absolute dollars and, of course, on higher revenue as well in terms of days of inventory. The target is to try to get inventory on or about $1 billion or slightly below that. But to your point, yes, it will take a couple of quarters for us to be able to do that. And so the gross margin will trend sideways for a couple of quarters until we get through this inventory reduction on our side. And until, of course, the overall business starts picking up again, as we discussed with Android, the large customer, stronger tailwinds in the broad markets business, and then the gross margin will start picking up again.

And perhaps one for Liam. You guys haven't emphasized at least on your call, your opportunity in BAW in some time. How are you guys feeling about that? I think you guys have done well, putting it into diversity receive. But would you expect some standalone BAW opportunities to kind of move the needle this year?

Yes, we have significant customers who are in good condition, and we've seen strong collaboration and development. Additionally, there are BAW deployments in various markets that we can explore, including access points, routers, and infrastructure products. It's important to view BAW as a technology rather than just a product. This technology is complex, and only a select few companies have the capability to execute it, including the unique manufacturing and technology aspects involved. The market for bulk acoustic wave filtering is strategic and challenging, and it extends beyond handsets. We have several use cases in Wi-Fi and other infrastructure markets. It is a critical technology that not many companies can manage. While some of our peers in this call may be involved in this space, it is no easy task. However, our teams have performed exceptionally well. We have a broad scope of opportunities and continue to expand our customer base. We have also been effective in encouraging our clients to embrace the higher performance levels associated with bulk acoustic wave technology. This technology shines in more difficult and demanding operating environments, and we excel in executing in those scenarios.

I wonder if you could address any long-term ramifications from Huawei potentially coming back with its own 5G solution? Does that create long-term opportunity for you? Does that create risk to your existing Chinese customers? Just anything that we should think about that affects Skyworks.

Yes. It appears that Huawei is really off the shelf right now. So it's not even in the forecast. Having said that, there's still opportunity for the China market to grow. Kris mentioned it a little bit. We talked about the opportunity for Android to turn back up and you get the Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi players. So there's a lot of opportunity there. But Huawei itself, as it is at this stage, is really a nonstarter; it could change, but in today's environment, it's really not a customer that we're working with.

Kris, you alluded to the December quarter growing as well. So given that we're coming off of a cyclical trough in Android, should we expect December to be somewhat about seasonal? If you can talk about directionally how you're thinking about December? That will be helpful.

Yes. As you know, we only guide one quarter at a time, and so I'm going to stick to that. But directionally, yes, we do expect December to be up sequentially following a normal seasonal sequential growth patterns that we've experienced in the past.

Okay. Got it. And then maybe for Liam. Liam, there has been some news about China banning gallium and the germanium exports. Just wondering, given a lot of your products use those materials. Just wondering if there's any impact that you see in the short term on that.

Yes, we acknowledge the situation. However, I can assure you that there is currently no risk for us. We are familiar with those materials, having used them for an extended period. Our teams have thoroughly examined the issue and the opportunities it presents, and we should be fine. There is very little risk to our business; we have expertise in these solutions and the underlying materials. Therefore, we don't see it as a cause for concern.

I know the seasonality is a bit thrown out the window in the current down cycle. But I was hoping you might be able to comment, Kris, on the outlook between mobile and broad markets in September, particularly broad markets, broad markets is usually up, but I think we're going through a little bit of excess inventory. So if you could just highlight perhaps your outlook between mobile and broad markets for September? That would be quite helpful.

Yes. Obviously, September is a very strong mobile quarter, especially with the content that we have at our large customer and a big ramp that we have supported over the last 10 or 12 years. Most of the sequential growth in the September quarter is coming from our mobile segment broad markets might be flat to slightly down a couple percent on a sequential basis for the reasons that you just mentioned, right, there is a little bit of inventory overhang in some of those end markets, very similar to what our peers and competitors have indicated over the last two weeks at their earnings calls. We are obviously not immune to that. Although, again, I think our broad markets business, we are, as Liam indicated earlier, we are well positioned. There are a couple of spots, including automotive, right? That continues to grow double-digit year-over-year. But overall, there's a little bit of inventory overhang that needs to be flushed out in the next couple of quarters. And then broad markets will start growing faster as well.

Got it. I guess maybe just to follow up on that, if I may. If you could just speak broadly to how your inventory looks outside of the handset business. Again, it sounds like we have some inventory depletion that is still needed to reoccur. But the flip side of that argument then is how do you refill the channel once the channel is depleted, perhaps it's more clean channel exiting the year. Just any thoughts into 2024 at a higher level in terms of how you look at broad markets once this inventory overhang abates?

Yes. First, I want to clarify that much of the inventory issue related to Skyworks is not within the distribution channel at the component level. We usually manage this proactively to maintain a healthy inventory. The challenge arises when certain customers incorporate components into products, but those products do not sell as expected to the end customers. That inventory needs to decrease over time. I believe it will take a couple of quarters to resolve. However, once this is addressed, we can expect a return to business, likely stronger than before, as we shift from under shipping to aligning shipments with end customer demand, which will drive growth.

Liam, when you went through the segments or the various units in the broad markets piece, you didn't talk about communications infrastructure. And I think that historically, if you look at core Skyworks and then you add on top some of the timing stuff that you got from the I&A acquisition, that was probably a decent chunk of the business. And so I was wondering if I'm right about that. And then secondly, if you can give us an update on what you're seeing. It sounds like that's a pretty tough market right now and not a lot of visibility rest of this year and maybe even into next year. So would love to kind of understand how you're thinking about that business.

Yes. No, great question. Actually, I should have given that answer already. But no, we actually have meaningful numbers in the infrastructure side. And actually, in the last quarter, we actually had a record in the infrastructure side. So with all of the other chop that we see in handsets and some of the consumer products, the infrastructure business is actually quite, quite strong. There's a lot of room for us to grow into that portfolio. We have very good relationships, and the infrastructure industry tends to be a little bit cyclical, and we're starting to see more opportunity there. Now some of that is just moving further up in 5G in other markets and even some of the upgrades that we see in Wi-Fi and technologies like that. So they're all important to us, but infrastructure is still very solid, and we expect that to be a driver in '24.

Okay. Okay. And then I guess just as a quick follow-up, Liam, kind of another high-level question around sort of the macro and how you weigh that against design activity. It sounds like things are going well in some of these new areas that you're addressing, auto. Obviously, Wi-Fi has a cycle coming up. But I mean, generally, outside of mobile, if you look at broad markets, how would you assess design activity sort of as you look into the second half of the year versus maybe this time last year?

Yes. I tell you, it's really getting better. The design win activity is better; the customer engagements and discussions that we're having are getting better and more forward-looking. The portfolio is broader than it ever has been. We've got a lot more talent in the organization. Operationally, we've gone through some cyclical hits here with depreciation that we talked about with CapEx, but that's turning into a cash flow play right now that's going to really drive the business and allow us to put forth more powerful investments. So we feel good about it. And I think the pieces can really drive a great 2024. We're getting through these quarters right now, the business is starting to improve, and we expect to have double-digit performance as we go forward.

Well, thank you all for participating in today's call. We look forward to talking to you at upcoming investor conferences. Thank you.