Texas Instruments Inc
Texas Instruments Incorporated is a global semiconductor company that designs, manufactures and sells analog and embedded processing chips for markets such as industrial, automotive, data center, personal electronics and communications equipment. At our core, we have a passion to create a better world by making electronics more affordable through semiconductors. This passion is alive today as each generation of innovation builds upon the last to make our technology more reliable, more affordable and lower power, making it possible for semiconductors to go into electronics everywhere.
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58.4% overvaluedTexas Instruments Inc (TXN) — Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
AI Call Summary AI-generated
The 30-second take
Texas Instruments reported revenue growth, but the pace of the overall market recovery is slower than expected. Management is being cautious by reducing factory production to avoid building too much unsold inventory. They are excited about their growing business supplying parts for data centers.
Key numbers mentioned
- Q3 Revenue was $4.7 billion.
- Earnings per share in the quarter was $1.48.
- Cash flow from operations was $2.2 billion in the quarter.
- Capital expenditures were $1.2 billion in the quarter.
- Inventory at the end of the quarter was $4.8 billion.
- Q4 Revenue guidance is in the range of $4.22 billion to $4.58 billion.
What management is worried about
- The overall semiconductor market recovery is continuing, though at a slower pace than prior upturns.
- There is hesitancy and a "wait-and-see mode" with industrial customers due to uncertainty around final rules and tariffs.
- The recovery has been moderate, and the market is still below its trend line.
- Visibility remains low due to high customer service levels and short lead times.
What management is excited about
- The data center market is becoming a larger opportunity and is growing more than 50% year-to-date for Texas Instruments.
- Customer inventory depletion appears to be behind them.
- The company is well-positioned with capacity and inventory to support a range of demand scenarios.
- They are planning to break out data center as a dedicated market segment in Q1 to highlight its growth.
Analyst questions that hit hardest
- Timothy Arcuri (UBS) - Factory loadings and cash margins: Management responded by defending their inventory position and explaining that lower revenue and reduced factory production led to the earnings guidance.
- Stacy Rasgon (Bernstein Research) - Gross margin expectations and cost savings: The CFO gave a long, detailed answer about revenue, depreciation, and loadings but avoided giving a specific gross margin number.
- Ross Seymore (Deutsche Bank) - Gross margin flow-through into next year: Management gave a broad answer focused on free cash flow per share and long-term positioning rather than providing precise forward margin details.
The quote that matters
"This recovery has been... one of the more moderate recoveries that we've seen in history."
Haviv Ilan — CEO
Sentiment vs. last quarter
The tone was more cautious than in the prior quarter, with management explicitly noting the recovery is progressing at a "slower pace" and is more "moderate" than they had previously suggested, leading to deliberate reductions in factory production.
Original transcript
Welcome to the Texas Instruments Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Mike Beckman, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Executive Officer, Haviv Ilan, and our Chief Financial Officer, Rafael R. Lizardi. For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website. This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause Texas Instruments' results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as Texas Instruments' most recent SEC filings for a more complete description. You likely saw last week we announced that the board of directors has elected Haviv Ilan as chairman of the board beginning January 2026. Haviv succeeds Rich Templeton, who will retire as chairman after a 45-year career with Texas Instruments. I'm sure you will join me in congratulating them both. Today, we'll provide the following updates. First, Haviv will start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, he will provide insight into third-quarter revenue results with some details on what we are seeing with respect to our end markets. Lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, give an update on capital management, as well as share the guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025. With that, let me turn it over to Haviv.
Thanks, Mike. I'll start with a quick overview of the third quarter. Revenue came in about as expected at $4.7 billion, an increase of 7% sequentially and an increase of 14% year over year. Analog and embedded both grew year on year and sequentially. Analog revenue grew 16% year over year, and embedded processing grew 9%. Our other segment grew 11% from the year-ago quarter. Let me provide a few comments about the current market environment. The overall semiconductor market recovery is continuing, though at a slower pace than prior upturns, likely related to the broader macroeconomic dynamics and overall uncertainty. That said, customer inventories remain at low levels, and their inventory depletion appears to be behind us. We are well-positioned with capacity and inventory and have flexibility to support a range of scenarios. Now I'll share some additional insights into third-quarter revenue by end market. First, the industrial market increased about 25% year on year and was up low single digits sequentially following a strong result in the second quarter. The automotive market increased upper single digits year on year and around 10% sequentially, with growth across all regions. Personal electronics grew low single digits year on year and grew upper single digits sequentially. Enterprise systems grew about 35% year on year and grew about 20% sequentially. And lastly, communications equipment grew about 45% year on year and was up about 10% sequentially. With that, let me turn it over to Rafael to review profitability and capital management.
Thanks, Haviv, and good afternoon, everyone. As Haviv mentioned, third-quarter revenue was $4.7 billion. Gross profit in the quarter was $2.7 billion or 57% of revenue. Sequentially, gross profit margin decreased 50 basis points. Operating expenses in the quarter were $975 million, up 6% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing twelve-month basis, operating expenses were $3.9 billion, or 23% of revenue. Operating profit was $1.7 billion in the quarter, or 35% of revenue, and was up 7% from the year-ago quarter. Income in the quarter was $1.4 billion or $1.48 per share. Earnings per share included a $0.10 reduction not in our original guidance. This includes $0.08 of restructuring charges related to efforts to drive operational efficiencies to support our long-term strategy, including the plant closures of our last 250-millimeter fabs. Let me now comment on our capital management results. Starting with our cash generation, cash flow from operations was $2.2 billion in the quarter, and $6.9 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis. Capital expenditures were $1.2 billion in the quarter, and $4.8 billion over the last twelve months. Free cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis was $2.4 billion. This includes $637 million of CHIPS Act incentives, including a $75 million payment received in the third quarter related to the direct funding agreement. In the quarter, we paid $1.2 billion in dividends and repurchased $190 million of our stock. In September, we announced we would increase our dividend by 4%, marking our twenty-second consecutive year of dividend increases. This reflects our continued commitment to return free cash flow to our owners over time. In total, we returned $6.6 billion to our owners in the past twelve months. Our balance sheet remains strong with $5.2 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the third quarter. Total debt outstanding is $14 billion with a weighted average coupon of 4%. Inventory at the end of the quarter was $4.8 billion, up $17 million from the prior quarter, and days were 215, down sixteen days sequentially. We have executed well on building an inventory position, which we believe will allow us to consistently deliver high levels of customer service. Turning to our outlook for the fourth quarter, we expect Texas Instruments' revenue in the range of $4.22 billion to $4.58 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.13 to $1.39. Our fourth-quarter outlook includes changes related to the new U.S. Tax legislation and now assumes an effective tax rate of about 13%. In addition, expect our effective tax rate in 2026 to be about 13 to 14%. In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels, and diverse and long-lived positions. We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term. With that, let me turn it back to Mike.
Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the line for questions. In order to provide as many of you as possible an opportunity to ask your questions, please limit yourself to a single question. Afterward, we'll provide you an opportunity for an additional follow-up. Operator?
Operator
Thank you.
We will now be conducting a question and answer session.
Operator
If you would like to ask a question, please press 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press 2 to remove yourself from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Thanks a lot. Haviv, I'm wondering if you can talk about the linearity of bookings through the quarter. I know, in the June quarter, things had softened throughout the quarter, but this quarter, it seemed like things got a little better as you move through the quarter. So can you talk about that as you head into Q4?
Yes. I'll give some high-level comments, and please add anything with more details. Yeah, this quarter was kind of came in as expected, nothing not similar to what we saw in Q2. It was a little bit hectic with tensions related to trade and tariffs. We experienced a lot of change through the quarter. This was more of an expected quarter through July, August, and September. And Mike, anything to add on that one? We had talked about the turns portion of the business had started out strong at the beginning of second and had moderated near the end. We didn't see that same behavior again. And third, it really, you know, that portion kind of followed what you'd expect to see in a kind of a cyclical recovery that we're seeing in the third. Do you have a follow-up?
I do. Yeah. Ross, I wanted to ask about loadings that are assumed in the fourth quarter. I know you usually come in at the high end, but if we assume the midpoint of the guidance, and I assume that depreciation grows as it has the past few quarters, gross margin, if I exclude the depreciation, so on a cash basis, it's down to sub 67. So haven't been that low in like ten years. And you are already sitting on a lot of inventory. I don't think you want to build more. So sort of what's the path to get cash margins on a better path here? I mean, it's below where it was seven to eight quarters ago when revenue was, you know, $600 to $700 million lower than where it is today. Thanks.
Yeah. Let me try to answer that. There were several questions there, so let me see if I can hit most of them. First, your question is maybe fundamentally on inventory, so let me start there. We're very pleased with our current inventory position. The objective for inventory is to support customers to keep lead times short and have great customer delivery, customer satisfaction. So that we are achieving, and we're pleased with where the inventory is. Now given where revenue, the midpoint of our revenue, in order to continue to maintain those levels of inventory and where we want to be in inventory, we're adjusting the loadings down into the fourth quarter. We did some of that in the third quarter, and we're going to do some more in the fourth. So as we do that, and as you pointed out, when you look at the fourth quarter, you have lower revenue, you have higher depreciation, you have the hit on the lower loadings. So that's how you get to the EPS range that we have.
Alright. We'll move on to the next caller.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Danely with Citibank. Please proceed with your question.
Thanks, guys, and thanks for pronouncing my last name correctly, operator. Hey, guys. Could you just talk a little bit more about the restructuring? Maybe what was the catalyst for it? And then any benefits to expenses, either gross margins or OpEx going forward?
Chris, high-level, it's related to actually two things. First, I think we announced several years back that we are winding down our six-inch fab, the 150-millimeter fab. We have one in Sherman, the old site, and one in Dallas. Both of them have actually started the last wafer this month. And we will see a gradual reduction in cost related to this to two factories. Peru, I think by '26, we are just taking the hit on the restructuring cost in Q3 as we had predictability and the amount was clear to us in terms of the size of it. Regarding the other part of it, this is ongoing work that we're doing. We are always looking at efficiency gains. We had some areas where we felt that our R&D machines are not generating returns that we would expect in the long term, and we decided to consolidate some sites. That is also going to take place in the next couple of quarters for the company.
Do you have a follow-up, Chris?
And Rafael, is there anything that just on the OpEx side that you want to mention?
No, I would just say, technically, for the fourth quarter, expect OpEx to be about flat to third quarter and that's as Haviv alluded to the benefits from the restructuring. They don't all come in immediately, so it just takes a little while for that to happen. And there would be benefits in both gross margin as well as OpEx.
Do you have a follow-up, Chris?
Yes. Hey, thanks, Mike. I think you guys said industrial was up low single digits sequentially and auto was up, I think it was high singles or something like that sequentially. That sounds like a bit of a change from what you said last quarter and intra-quarter. Is that true? And then, you know, why do you think industrial is slowing down and auto is a little better than expected?
Let me take a first, Chris, you remember, we only guide at the company level. We don't guide by market. We did say, I think on the industrial side that we had a very strong Q2, so kind of indicated that we assume Q3 will taper off, right? And actually, to me, that low single-digit growth sequentially was good; I'm pleased with the result. Remember, very strong growth in the second quarter. The automotive side, I would say, look, automotive was kind of sequentially up and down and up and down, but all in a very similar level, right? The recovery in automotive, at least for Texas Instruments, was very, the trough was shallow, and now, you know, it's kind of back to where it used to be, so I would not read too much into it. It came in more or less as expected, I think, Mike, it grew across the regions in automotive.
It did. Yeah. I agree.
Sequentially across all the regions. All the regions. So no surprises there, Chris, from a market perspective, at least. Yeah. And regarding industrial, a second to third transition usually actually down. If you just look across the averages over history, it's actually down a little bit. So an up low single digit is actually not an unusual result if you're in a recovery.
Alright. I'll move on to the next caller. Thanks, Chris.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Great. Thank you. I guess I continue to get a lot of questions about pricing for you guys. Anything unusual happening there? I think you alluded to kind of an ongoing learning curve kind of price declines, but anything happening where any markets are sort of different on the pricing side?
Short answer is no. And again, for the year, I think our assumption coming into the year was kind of a low single-digit decline like-for-like on the pricing side, and I think that's how we are trending today. So I expect the year to end at that low single-digit price reduction in 2025.
Yeah. And just your any on lead times? Are you still in the range that you talked about? Any areas where lead times are getting longer?
I'd say across the portfolio, very consistent with what it was the quarter prior. So not much of a change in that. And, you know, our lead times right now are competitive. We worked very hard to make sure that our inventory position allows us to do that. And we're happy with the lead time position we have. Yeah, not a lot of change on a sequential basis.
Joe, just a little bit more color on lead times. I think we always talk about inventory part by part, by technology, by package type. I think as Rafael mentioned, the third quarter was a very good quarter for us because we reached our milestone of where we need to be. We had a few areas where we were still catching up. So that's now behind us and we are now prepared for any scenario. As Mike said, we are serving our customers through a growth issue of mid-teens with no issues. So very strong support from Texas Instruments. We are hitting our metrics and exceeding them even. And customer service is continuing to be very high for the company, which explains some of the low visibility we are seeing.
Right. Thanks, Thank you. Move on to our next caller, please.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. For my first one, I just wanted to dial in on the gross margin expectations explicitly for Q4. So you talked about loadings and everything else. You talked about the tax rate coming up. Seems that you're guiding it down, I don't know, maybe 250 bps, something in the ballpark of 55%. I just want to know, is that the right number to think about? And then given that baseline, like, how much cost should I be expecting comes out of the model due to the six-inch fab closures in the first half?
Yeah. So Stacy, high level in the ballpark. You know, we let the EPS guide speak for itself, but you have lower revenue, you fall that through, you have increases in depreciation, for the year is $1.8 billion to $2 billion. So you know, but it should be an increase second to third similar to third to fourth should be similar to second to third. So you do that and you have a higher level of depreciation. And then as Saviv said, we're very pleased with our inventory levels, doing what they're supposed to. So now we are moderating those wafer starts, those loadings, and as those come down, we get the impact on gross margins. Let me just also step back and stress that we run the company with the mindset of a long-term owner and to grow free cash flow per share over the long term. That is gaining momentum. On a trailing twelve-month basis, our free cash flow is up 65% from last year. And it has the potential to accelerate and grow even faster next year as we have outlined in our framework back in the capital management.
Do you have a follow-up, Stacy?
I do. Thanks. So your Q4 guide is down about 7% sequentially off the slightly higher than expected Q3 base. My math suggests that down 7% or so is pretty much seasonal, like, on a pre-COVID basis. I know post-COVID seasonality has been over the place. But pre-COVID it typically was down, call it, like, high single digits. You seem to be on a seasonal trend now, and maybe that's consistent with customers no longer draining inventory. How should I think about normal seasonality, like, pre-COVID levels for Q1? My under my feeling is it's typically down sequentially. Like, what is I'm not asking you to guide it, but just, what is normal for Q1, at least on a pre-COVID basis? If we're running more of a seasonal pattern from here.
Before we talk about Q1, let me just add a little bit more color on Q4. As you said, I look at it as a roughly seasonal guide, as you said. And the reason is, there is a recovery, but it's at a very moderate pace, right? So that's what guides our call it seasonal view into Q4. I also mentioned and that's what we're seeing. This is part of the way we do business days. More customers are direct, more customers are on consignment. Customer inventories are low, and I think they've gone through this depletion process; that's behind us. So we are going to be just seeing it real-time as it comes, and hence our guidance. Now, Q1, Mike, you could comment if you like.
It's not unusual to see, you know, fourth to first just historically. This is not a guide for what we're gonna see, but what historically has done is typically down, just slightly sequentially. It's not unusual to see.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions, and congratulations, Haviv, on the Chairman role as well. I wanted to go back to the gross margin side. Rafael, you talked about all the reasons it was going to drop and the rough range from the prior question. Just wondered how does that flow through into next year? From the perspective of depreciation? Is there any change to the range you gave before? And if you're flat to slightly down in the first quarter, does that flow through? And does the utilization dynamic have to flow through inventory, etc. and lead to a headwind as we go into the first half of next year as well?
Yes. So a couple of things. First, on depreciation, no change to our guidance, it's $1.8 to $2 billion for this year. So you come back into fourth quarter. As I answered to Stacy a second ago. For next year, we've said $2.3 billion to $2.7 billion but to be on the lower end of that range. So that should give you enough to model that. Beyond that, we'll forecast one quarter at a time. It's going to depend on revenue and demand. So this by lowering the loadings now puts us in a good position to have the level of inventory that we think is required, and I think that's to put us in a good position going into 2026.
Ross, the only color I'll add and then Rafael touched upon it, we do think that the way we run the place on free cash flow per share we have made excellent progress on ramping and qualifying our Sherman new site. We are winding down to six-inch fabs. Our investments in Utah, in Lehi 2 are continuing as planned. So our eyes are on free cash flow per share growth and starting with free cash flow, right? So when you get to the right level of inventory, when you execute on your expansion plans, I think we are now well prepared for any scenario. And as you remember, we have framed 2026 not on GPM, but on free cash flow. And that's where our site is on. Okay?
Do you have a follow-up, Ross?
Yeah. I do. I just wanted to also talk about margins, but on the OpEx side, clarification first, then the question. The clarification for Rafael, you talked about OpEx being flat in the fourth quarter. I assume that's excluding the charge in the third quarter. And then as you look forward, in the past, you've had years that OpEx was flat year over year. You had some restructuring. You're consolidating R&D sites, you said. How should we think just generally about OpEx, whether it's relative to revenue or absolute levels? Do you plan to grow at low single digits? Is it something higher than that, like this year? Any sort of color about how you're approaching OpEx as you look into next year?
Yes. So a couple of things. First, on the first part of your question, when I think about OpEx, I do not include restructuring in that. That is a separate line. So that $85 million, of course, is not going to repeat. So put that out and the OpEx, the regular OpEx, I expect it to be above flat from third to fourth quarter. Beyond that, on R&D and SG&A strategies, we have a disciplined process of allocating R&D and SG&A to the best opportunities and the best investments that both primarily on the R&D space, but even in the SG&A strategies such as ti.com to strengthen our competitive advantages.
Yes. And on the R&D side, Ross, look, today I'd like to talk about and we are seeing the data center market becoming a larger opportunity over the last several years and I think that continues into the future. So when I think about industrial, automotive, data center, the amount of opportunity to expand our portfolio is high. We have a lot of good investments to make there, and we plan to grow our portfolio in these three areas. We care about all markets; all five markets, but these three will have really a long-term growth opportunity ahead of them, and Texas Instruments can do more to sell in these markets. So I expect to see that in 2026 and beyond.
Thank you, Ross. Move on to our next caller, please.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jim Snyder with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Was wondering if you could maybe give us a little bit of color on China and what you're seeing there. I think last quarter you called out some pull-in activity. I'm curious whether you saw a reversion there in terms of orders or whether orders ended up better than you expected and sort of what you're seeing on a real-time basis heading into Q4?
High level in Q3, China came back to normal, and I expect that to continue into Q4. Mike, anything specific on the China business?
Yes. And maybe add, as we probably talked about last quarter, there was potential for pull forward in the second quarter. And if you look at industrial and China, you know, that was one of the only markets that didn't grow sequentially. But if you look on a year-on-year, still up about 40%. But I think you're looking at where it essentially didn't see that same level of pull forward, at least evidence of it. Can't confirm that with certainty, but it doesn't appear that same pull forward trend repeated itself in the third just based on that. But we'll have to see how it plays through. But that's the only thing I would add. Okay. Okay. So nothing special to report there, Jim.
Do you have a follow-up? Yes, please. I know when you get to the beginning of next year, you'll give us an update on the Capital Management Day. But I'm just sort of curious as we sit here today in light of the slower recovery you seem to be talking about right now. Can you maybe give us a sense about whether you expect that your CapEx for next year will be toward the lower end of the range you sort of outlined at the beginning of this year?
Yes. We gave you the framework, Jim. And again, we gave you a 20 to 26 framework there. But of course, it can be higher or lower. I think the probability of being lower is probably more probable than higher than $26 billion, right? So at the end of the day, we'll see what it wants to do. This recovery has been so we haven't seen even the market go back to trend line, not to mention going above trend line and customers building inventory, we just haven't seen it. It could still happen in this cycle; it could not. The good news from a Texas Instruments perspective is that we are ready for any scenario. If it wants to grow quickly, we will be able to serve it. But if it wants to continue in that moderate recovery, of course, we will be at the lower end of the CapEx and free cash flow will grow. As indicated in the framework we provided in capital management. And as February comes in, we'll have some more information. We'll have Q behind us and we'll provide more color on that, Jim.
Thanks, Jim. Thank you. We'll go to the next call, please.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Yes. Thank you. I guess first question is with regard to, you know, general conditions and the recovery. And I think the words you said were that the recovery was continuing at a slower pace. Can you talk about what changed in your mind since the last earnings call? I think earlier in the year, perhaps you were more optimistic that this would follow on to a more typical recovery, which would be stronger by now. But, you know, what sort of changed in the part of your customers and such compared to the last earnings call?
Yes, sir. And I think that's related more to the first half of 2Q. I think I might mention that, and we acknowledge that in July call that it had a very rapid start. We were thinking that we were sitting on a sharp slope. I think time taught us that a moderate recovery is what we are seeing. We are seeing the market getting back towards the trend line, but still below the trend line. And that's one of the more moderate recoveries that we've seen in history. I think you have to go back many years to see similar behavior. It could still change. And again, I don't have proof of it, but I do see when I talk with customers, on the side, and if you think about investing, building new factories, putting more CapEx, there is a bit of a wait-and-see mode with our customers. There's just hesitancy to have clarity on what exactly are the final rules. Should I put my factory in this country or another one? Even in our domain, think about it, the rules are still not finalized in terms of the rates of tariffs, for example, will they be or not? So I do see this hesitancy at the customer base, and I see it mainly on the industrial side. On the automotive side, it's the secular growth is continuing. So just content growth allows that market to go back to the level it peaked before. And the outlier is data center. Data center, again, not a large part of our revenue, but growing more than 50% for Texas Instruments year to date. That's where we see strong investment. That's the only place where we see strong growth. Where customers are investing and moving fast and Texas Instruments wants to do more there, and we are investing as well. But again, that's a smaller part of our revenue.
Do you have a follow-up, Chris?
I do. Thank you. And as a follow-up, if you could take us through your thought process with regard to the wafer starts and utilization. I mean, is it a function of what you just said that, you know, typically recovery was stronger at this point? And it's not there. So you need to moderate a bit. Can you take us through the thought process of that and for how long you would, you know, keep the loadings at a lower level, and what would you need to see to start raising those loadings again?
Yeah. So it is, you can think of it fairly mechanically. Frankly. Think of revenue was 4.7 and the change in the quarter. Now the midpoint is 4.4. If you run the factories the same way you were before with lower revenue, you just grow inventory and keep on growing inventory. We only grew $17 million in the third quarter, so it was essentially flat. But at a lower revenue, same loadings, you would grow inventory. So you need to moderate that in order to keep inventory flat or maybe slightly down as we go into the fourth quarter. The second part of your question is going to depend on revenue, right? So the higher the revenue, could be over the next six, nine, twelve months going into 2026, then the faster we could increase the loadings back up, or we may leave them at that level if the revenue is more moderate. So it's just going to depend on how revenue comes in.
Yeah. Thanks, Chris. Moving on to the next caller, please.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Hey. Thanks, guys. I added two questions. I just want to follow back up on that loading comment. I mean, you said that you would keep it kind of flat in December. I mean, I guess you're not going to guide to March, but I'm just kind of curious, you've been growing inventory for many quarters. Is this now the way to think about it? You'll keep it flat until you see a more robust recovery in the top line?
Yeah. And I think you're referring flat inventory levels. And I said flat to down. So we are comfortable with the $4.8 billion that we have that has very low obsolescence levels. We hardly ever scrap any of our inventory because it lasts a long time, both in finished goods and in terms and in chips. In chip form, in die bank, and in finished goods. So we feel very comfortable with that level, but it's about sustainability, right? If you just keep on growing, it's not just a good allocation of your cash, of your capital for your owners. It's better to moderate the loadings, where you're flat to down in the current environment, and we feel that we can do that and continue to have very high levels of customer service and metrics supporting our customers. Do you have a follow-up?
And then I guess just a follow-up, in terms of the lower loading in December, is that all reflected in the gross margin guidance? Or does that kind of spill into March? Obviously, like I said, you're not going to guide to March, but just kind of thinking about the moving pieces. Is there any kind of part of the December cut that spills into March in addition to whatever March is?
Yeah. So we're not guiding to March as you pointed out, but the lower loading that I'm talking about, some of that happened in the third quarter. There was a step down in the third quarter, second to third, and there's another step down into fourth. That is, of course, embedded in the EPS guidance that we just gave.
Alright. Thanks, Blayne. Move on to our next caller, please.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tore Svanberg with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
My first question is on the enterprise data and communications business. I get the enterprise data that's obviously tied to data center; I'm a little bit surprised to see the communications equipment being that strong. Is that also tied to data center and perhaps, you know, some of these cluster build-outs, or is there anything else going on there?
Oh, yes. I think it's a great question, and that's the reason. I think we indicated to provide more color in Q1. We are planning to break out the data center as a market for the company. Right now, our data center sits mainly in enterprise, in the compute and equipment, but also on the comm side, we have there the wire, the switches and the wired comms in a rack and rack to rack. We also have the optical module business there in comms. So they are really part of the data center market, if you will. The other part of the data center market for Texas Instruments is SIP today in industrial; think about all these high-voltage power delivery, the PSUs and all that. There is also a lot of architectural change there going to high-voltage DC and all that. So I think it's time that Texas Instruments calls out a data center at the top. We'll provide more color in Q1, but just for the year, we are in the midst of collecting all the bits and pieces. But Texas Instruments is running more or less at a $1.2 billion run rate in 2025 that what we're seeing right now. And again, we'll provide more specifics in Q1, but it's also a fastest growing market. It's growing year to date above 50% for the first three quarters, and I see customers continuing to invest, as I alluded before. That's the one market that we see CapEx going into. I'm not seeing any slowdown there in the foreseeable future, at least in our visibility.
Okay? Do you have a follow-up, Tore?
Yes. That was very helpful. Just a quick follow-up. I know you typically don't guide by market in Q4, but any sort of outliers one way or the other by your end markets into December, please?
I'd just say there's no specific outliers to call out. As you look across our businesses, some of our end markets have higher sensitivity to seasonality than others, personal electronics being probably the most sensitive to it. But overall, there's nothing specific that I call out about fourth quarter's transition. So Tore, thank you for the time, and I'll hand it back over to Haviv to wrap this up.
Thank you, Mike. So let me wrap up with what we've said. At ALCO, we are engineers, and technology is the foundation of our company, but ultimately, our objective is to measure progress and generate value to our owners is the long-term growth of free cash flow per share. Thank you, and have a good evening.