VTR Fair Value Estimate
$29.2065.6% overvalued
Blended fair value estimate based on DCF, Graham Number, and earnings-based models.
Ventas Inc
Exchange: NYSESector: Real EstateIndustry: REIT - Healthcare Facilities
Ventas, Inc. is a leading S&P 500 real estate investment trust enabling exceptional environments that benefit a large and growing aging population. With approximately 1,400 properties in North America and the United Kingdom, Ventas occupies an essential role in the longevity economy. The Company’s growth is fueled by its approximately 850 senior housing communities, which provide valuable services to residents and enable them to thrive in supported environments. Ventas aims to deliver outsized performance by leveraging its operational expertise, data-driven insights from its Ventas OI™ platform, extensive relationships and strong financial position. The Ventas portfolio also includes outpatient medical buildings, research centers and healthcare facilities. Ventas’s seasoned team of talented professionals shares a commitment to excellence, integrity and a common purpose of helping people live longer, healthier, happier lives.
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A large-cap company with a $39.9B market cap.
Current Price
$84.96
+0.01%GoodMoat Value
$29.20
65.6% overvaluedProfile
Valuation (TTM)
Market Cap$39.91B
P/E158.76
EV$50.88B
P/B3.19
Shares Out469.73M
P/Sales6.84
Revenue$5.83B
EV/EBITDA23.49
Ventas Inc (VTR) Valuation
GoodMoat Analysis
Ventas Inc appears deeply overvalued from a value investing perspective. The current price of $82.7 is 183% above the GoodMoat Target of $29.20, indicating a negative margin of safety. The P/E of 154.5x is extremely high, especially for a company with modest profitability metrics.
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The valuation assessment for Ventas Inc is unequivocally unfavourable. The primary tool in the GoodMoat framework is the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, which yields a GoodMoat Target of $29.20. At the current price of $82.7, this represents a -183% margin of safety, which falls deep into the 'Unfavourable' band (defined as <10%). This suggests the stock is priced far above its estimated intrinsic value. The P/E ratio of 154.5x is extraordinarily high, particularly when compared to the company's 4.3% profit margin and 2.0% ROE. Such a multiple is typically reserved for hyper-growth companies, not a REIT with 21.4% YoY revenue growth and a negative Free Cash Flow Yield of -2.8%. The P/E also appears extreme relative to the broader REIT sector, which generally trades at much lower earnings multiples. The negative FCF Yield and high Debt/Equity ratio of 1.06 further complicate the valuation picture, as they indicate the company is not generating surplus cash for shareholders and carries significant leverage. For a value investor seeking a margin of safety, the current price offers none based on the provided fair value estimate and financial metrics. Analysis based on data as of 2024-05-15.
VTR Valuation Metrics
FCF$-1.08B
FCF Growth Rate—
EPS Growth (CAGR)—
WACC10.00%
Fair Value Models
Graham Number, PEG-based, and Earnings-based models
View Fair Value →VTR Valuation & Fair Value Analysis
Ventas Inc (VTR) valuation analysis using multiple fair value methodologies. GoodMoat calculates a blended fair value target using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, the Graham Number, and earnings-based valuation models.
The GoodMoat Fair Value target for Ventas Inc is $29.20. The current stock price is $84.96, suggesting the stock is 190.9% overvalued.
The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 158.76. Price-to-book ratio is 3.19. Price-to-sales ratio is 6.84. Enterprise value to EBITDA is 23.49. PEG ratio is 22.23.
GoodMoat's valuation models include the Graham Number (based on EPS and book value), an earnings-based model (discounted future EPS), and a PEG-adjusted valuation. The three models are averaged to produce a blended fair value estimate. Use these tools alongside the DCF calculator and reverse DCF to form a comprehensive view of Ventas Inc's intrinsic value.