Allegion plc (ALLE) — Q1 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

Thank you, Jason. Good morning everyone. Welcome and thank you for joining us for Allegion's first quarter 2020 earnings call. With me today are Dave Petratis, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Shannon, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Allegion. Our earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning and the presentation which we will refer to in today's call are available on our website at investor.allegion.com. This call will be recorded and archived on our website. Please go to slides two and three. Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of federal securities law. Please see our most recent SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from our projections. The company assumes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Today's presentation and commentary include non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the reconciliation in the financial tables of our press release for further details. Dave and Patrick will now discuss our first quarter 2020 results, which will be followed by a Q&A session. Given the high uncertainty around the duration and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, we had previously pulled our outlook for 2020 and will not be providing an update during this call. For the Q&A, we would like to ask each caller to limit themselves to one question and one follow-up and then reenter the queue. We will do our best to get to everyone given the time allotted. Please go to slide 4 and I'll turn the call over to Dave.

Thanks Tom. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Like all responsible global companies, Allegion is closely monitoring and assessing the COVID-19 outbreak, which continues to evolve. We are focused on doing what's right for our employees, customers, and communities. We're also maintaining our business health and supporting a central critical infrastructure around the world. Allegion operates within several different critical infrastructure sectors, making our work essential to our customers, and in many cases, their customers. Our people create the security and life safety devices so many others depend on, whether for private homes, government buildings, or medical facilities. We are regularly called on to provide our products and solutions for hospitals and health care facilities, most recently new construction for laboratories that will support the fight against COVID-19. This work gives us clear purpose, especially in these unprecedented times. With the exception of Italy and Mexico, where government health decrees have temporarily paused production, our manufacturing sites may operate. We monitor for demand and material shortages related to COVID-19, taking necessary short-term actions such as adjustments to production to protect the long-term future of Allegion. Such measures are being implemented in a way that minimizes disruption to customers and the overall business. In the case of Italy, we are shipping orders for finished goods with government approval and continue to engage in dialogue with Mexican authorities to open prior to the lifting of its general decree. In the meantime, we are working with our supply chain, existing inventory, and channel partners to fulfill customer requirements for goods normally coming out of Mexico. It remains our intention to continue to serve our customers to the best of our abilities. You've heard me say before, but it bears repeating. We have one of the safest workforces in the world. I could not be prouder of our company of experts who have leveraged our strength and safety to adapt to the current reality. We have faced COVID-19 since mid-January in China and developed operational practices that keep our people safe. We're modeling best practice safe hygiene guidelines based on standards from the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We're conducting deep cleaning of our facilities on a regular basis. We're social distancing where we can and we're limiting crowds. We've increased our personal protective equipment and supplies. There's additional cleaning solution, wipes, hand sanitizers throughout our facilities. Employees can ask for PPE supplies like gloves and we're requiring face masks in manufacturing and distribution facilities. We paused all nonessential meetings and visitors, as well as air travel early in the crisis. Essential meetings are encouraged in virtual ways. We're adhering to government decrees and orders and monitoring health conditions, and wherever possible and where necessary, employees are working from home. The strength of Allegion's global supply chain is a major asset and allows us to continue servicing our customers. We have many levers to pull from utilizing safety stocks and inventories to leveraging dual and alternate supply to sharing components across our own facilities and regions. Without a doubt, these options that our team have in place are increasing Allegion's credibility and customer loyalty in the marketplace. Of course, our business must be healthy to continue to support our employees, customers, and communities. We have proactively taken actions to mitigate financial implications associated with COVID-19. These actions include reductions in discretionary spending, elimination of nonessential investments, a hiring freeze and reprioritization of all capital expenditures, including a temporary suspension of share repurchases. Importantly, we believe Allegion has an extremely strong balance sheet and liquidity that provides flexibility and positions us well throughout this time. Our net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio was 1.6 times at December 31, 2019. We have an undrawn credit facility of up to $500 million if needed and no principal payments due on an outstanding debt until September 22. Our business generates significant cash flow due to industry-leading EBITDA margins and low capital intensity. Allegion's available cash flow conversion to earnings ratio has averaged over 100% as a stand-alone company. Yet there will be challenges ahead. The start of 2020 has made that clear. Allegion can take on great challenges with an engaged, safe, and healthy workforce, financial strength, legacy brands that have stood the test of time, and a steady focus. Allegion will remain true to our values and strong business fundamentals. Please go to Slide 5. Let's turn to the results for the first quarter. We have a strong disciplined supply chain, and our team did an outstanding job navigating the early challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic as evidenced by the revenue growth we experienced in the quarter. In particular, the Americas had a stellar quarter offset by weakness in Europe and Asia Pacific. The Americas region had reported growth of 7.7% and organic growth of 8.2% in the quarter, driven by both nonresidential and residential businesses. EMEIA markets continue to be soft through the quarter, and our business was further impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic beginning in March. For Asia-Pacific, Asian markets remained weak, and the region as a whole experienced the COVID-19 impacts as well. Electronics growth in the Americas came in at 12% in the quarter. We continue to see electronics as a long-term positive trend as more and more products become connected for ease of access. The underlying fundamentals of the business are strong and will serve us well as the global pandemic subsides. Adjusted operating margin was up 190 basis points in the quarter. Margin expansion was led by the Americas region, which saw adjusted margins up 270 basis points. EMEIA and Asia-Pacific margins were down due to volume declines in both regions. EMEIA margins were further pressured by continued operational inefficiencies from the move of our operations from Turkey to Poland. We highlighted last quarter our expectation that the impact would carry over in the first half of this year. In the first quarter, adjusted EPS growth came in at a robust 18% and available cash flow was up nearly $44 million versus the prior year. Overall, I'm very pleased with our Q1 2020 results. That said, the near-term future will be more difficult as we continue to navigate the uncertainty brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, and I expect financial headwinds. Beyond the expense and cash management actions previously discussed, we are implementing cost reduction actions to optimize and simplify the European and Asia-Pacific regions. These actions are intended to address weaker end market fundamentals, enable enhanced customer focus, and will help position these regions for future success. And there's one accounting item to mention. We recognized a $96.3 million non-cash charge related to goodwill and indefinite-lived trade name impairments for our non-U.S. operations predominantly related to COVID-19 and the expected future impacts. Please go to Slide 6, and I'll take you through the first quarter financial summary. Revenue for the first quarter was $674.7 million, an increase of 3%, inclusive of 4.3% organic growth. Currency headwinds and the impact of the divestitures of our business in Colombia and Turkey offset some of the organic growth. The Americas led the way on revenue growth, offsetting the weakness we experienced in EMEIA and Asia Pacific. Patrick will share more detail on the regions in a moment. Adjusted operating margin increased by 190 basis points in the first quarter. As I stated earlier, we saw a significant margin expansion in the Americas with declines in Europe and Asia. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.04 increased $0.16 or just over 18% versus the prior year. The increase was driven primarily by higher operating income, favorable share count and tax rate offset the increase in other expense. Available cash flow came in at $19 million, an increase of nearly $44 million versus the prior year. Increased adjusted earnings and improvement in net working capital were the driving factors for the increase. Patrick will now walk you through the financial results, and I'll be back to wrap-up.

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today's call. Please go to slide number 7. This slide depicts the components of our revenue growth for the first quarter. I'll focus on the total Allegion results and cover the regions on their respective slides. As indicated, we delivered 4.3% organic growth in the first quarter led by the Americas region with strong growth in both the non-residential and residential businesses. Price realization was again solid in the quarter more than offsetting material inflation. The impact of the divestiture of our businesses in Colombia and Turkey along with continued currency pressure in EMEIA and Asia-Pacific were headwinds of total growth. Please go to slide number 8. Reported net revenues for the first quarter were $674.7 million. As stated earlier, this reflects an increase of 3% versus the prior year up 4.3% on an organic basis. We delivered good price realization and saw solid volume driven by the Americas region. We experienced an estimated $10 million revenue loss related to COVID-19 during the quarter primarily in our international regions as a result of business closures. Adjusted operating income of $128.2 million increased more than 14% over the same timeframe from last year. Adjusted operating margin of 19% increased 190 basis points. The margin expansion was primarily driven by solid operating leverage on incremental volumes in the Americas along with pricing and productivity outpacing inflation. Headwinds of margin performance include incremental investments which had a 30 basis point impact on adjusted operating margins and an estimated $4 million impact to adjusted operating income related to COVID-19. Please go to slide number 9. This slide reflects our earnings per share reconciliation for the first quarter. For the first quarter of 2019, reported earnings per share was $0.84. Adjusting for $0.04 for the prior year restructuring expenses and integration costs related to acquisitions, the 2019 adjusted earnings per share was $0.88. Operational results increased earnings per share by $0.16 as favorable price, operating leverage on incremental volume and productivity more than offset inflationary impacts and unfavorable currency. A year-over-year decrease in the adjusted effective tax rate drove another $0.04 increase. Favorable year-over-year share count increased adjusted earnings per share by another $0.02. The impact of incremental investments in the quarter was a $0.02 reduction and an increase in other expense drove another negative $0.04 per share impact. This results in adjusted first quarter 2020 earnings per share of $1.04 an increase of $0.16 or 18.2% compared to the prior year. Lastly, we had a $1.04 per share reduction for charges primarily related to goodwill and indefinite live trade name impairments. These charges were related to COVID-19 and its impact on expected future results. After giving effect to these onetime items, you arrive at first quarter 2020 reported earnings per share of $0. Please go to slide number 10. First quarter revenues for the Americas region were $502.1 million, up 7.7% on a reported basis and up 8.2% organically. The growth was driven by solid price realization and strong volume. Both the non-residential and residential businesses grew high single-digits. The business saw growth across all product segments and verticals particularly in institutional end markets. The electronics growth for the quarter was 12%. Electronic products continue to be a long-term growth driver as consumers and end users value the connectivity and convenience they offer over their mechanical counterparts. The overall growth in the Americas reflects the company's strong position in the market as well as the returns associated with incremental investments in new product development and channel strategies. Americas adjusted operating income of $146.6 million increased 19.1% versus the prior year period, and adjusted operating margin for the quarter increased 270 basis points. Volume leverage on the revenue increase along with price and productivity significantly exceeding inflation drove the substantial margin expansion. The team continues to deliver solid cost leverage and productivity to further improve operating performance in our competitive position. Lastly, incremental investments were a 40 basis point decrease on margins. Please go to slide number 11. First quarter revenues for the EMEIA region were $129.9 million, down 9.1% and down 6.2% on an organic basis. The lower volume was driven by continued weakening in end markets across the region and COVID-19 impacts, primarily, in the southern region. The impact of the divestiture of the business in Turkey and currency headwinds also contributed to the reported revenue decline. EMEIA adjusted operating income of $3.3 million decreased 71.8% versus the prior year period. Adjusted operating margin for the quarter decreased by 570 basis points. Also, during the quarter inflation exceeded price plus productivity. Revenue declines had a negative impact on operating margin, and we continue to experience cost pressure associated with the plant relocation from Turkey to Poland. Earlier in April, we announced cost reduction initiatives aimed at optimizing and simplifying our operations, improving our customer service, as well as addressing the cost structure in our non-U.S. locations. These are not specific to the COVID-19 pandemic, but part of our long-range business planning process. Please go to slide number 12. First quarter revenues for the Asia-Pacific region were $32.7 million, down 11.1% versus the prior year. Organic revenue was down 4.9%. The decline was driven by continued weakness in Australian end markets, primarily residential as well as impacts related to COVID-19. Total revenue continued to be affected by currency headwinds. Asia-Pacific adjusted operating loss for the quarter was $1.6 million, a decrease of $0.9 million with adjusted operating margins down 300 basis points versus the prior year period. Significant volume declines and unfavorable mix had a large impact on the reduced income and margin. Of note, we did have approximately $95 million in impairment charges for goodwill and indefinite live trade names. These charges were related to COVID-19 and its impact on expected future results. As with the EMEIA region, the cost reduction actions announced earlier in April will have a favorable impact on operations in Asia-Pacific. These actions are also the result of our long-range business planning and not specific to COVID-19 impacts. Please go to slide number 13. Year-to-date available cash flow for the first quarter of 2020 came in at $19 million, which is an increase of nearly $44 million compared to the prior year period. The increase was driven by higher adjusted net earnings and improvements in net working capital. Looking at the chart at the bottom of the slide, it shows working capital as a percent of revenues decreased based on a four-point quarter average. On a year-over-year point in time basis, working capital as a percent of revenue is down 220 basis points. This was driven by accelerated turnover in both inventory and receivables. As always, we remain committed to an effective and efficient use of working capital. We will continue to evaluate opportunities to minimize investments in working capital to continue to drive substantial cash flow conversion. Please go to slide number 14. This slide provides an update on our capital structure. As you can see, our leverage has dropped steadily over the past five years, and we ended 2019 at 2.1 times gross leverage and 1.6 times net leverage to adjusted EBITDA. In looking at our debt maturity profile, we do not have any loans maturing until September 2022. We also have a $500 million untapped credit facility should we need additional liquidity. Our balance sheet is in a strong position, and our high level cash flow conversion provides us flexibility and optionality to run the business going forward. These same strengths have led Allegion to six consecutive years of annual increase in dividends, and our most recent dividend increase of nearly 19% announced in February remains intact. During the first quarter, the company repurchased approximately $94 million of stock. Due to the uncertainties related to the pandemic, we have placed repurchase plans on hold, and we will review further as the year progresses. I will now hand it back over to Dave to wrap-up.

Thank you, Patrick. Please go to slide number 15. We recently announced that we were withdrawing our outlook for 2020 based on the magnitude and uncertainties surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. We respect the need for financial guidance for the analyst community and shareholders. However, the COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing. Health care experts are still learning about the virus and there is tremendous speculation on the economic recovery and the path it will take. The many unknowns include the scope and effect of further government regulatory, fiscal monetary, and public health responses. Our update will come when we release Q2 2020 results. The fundamentals of Allegion are strong. And as the world adapts to the new normal, we should have more clarity on the rest of 2020 at that time. We do expect that COVID-19 will have a near-term negative financial impact on the business, including the reduction in year-over-year revenues, operating profit, and cash flow due to government decrees and softening demand. With that said, Allegion's sound fundamental business strength provides some resiliency in times of economic downturn, and our long-term investment thesis remains unchanged. For the past several years, we have delivered above-market organic growth; the strength of our channel relationships, new product development, large installed base brand, and market positions have helped us continually drive higher organic growth than the market. Since spin, Allegion has delivered a 5.4% organic revenue CAGR. In the first quarter, the company grew organically at 4.3% with the Americas at 8.2%. Our strategy of seamless access takes full advantage of the keyless and connected technologies increasingly demanded in our industry. The electronic products needed to facilitate these demands continue to be a long-term growth driver for the company. The Americas business experienced 12% growth in electronics in Q1. Even with the growth we have seen in these products, since we became a stand-alone company, adoption is still in the early stages. Therefore, the industry conversion opportunity remains robust. Although, Allegion has industry-leading EBIT margins, our focus on price realization, productivity, and cost management allows us to expand margins when volumes are up like the 170 basis point increase we produced in Q1, but also facilitates the margin profile to be resilient through economic cycles. Our strong balance sheet, low capital requirements in tandem with the high level of cash flow conversion our business generates allows us to have capital allocation optionality. We are well within our debt covenants and have no near-term debt repayments. For the six full years that Allegion has been a stand-alone company, the conversion of net income to available cash flow has on average exceeded 100%. The COVID pandemic has caused worldwide disruption in economic markets, whether halting growing economies or furthering softening ones that were in decline. Nonetheless, we feel that our company is set up well to weather the storm and our strong fundamentals will serve us well when the pandemic subsides. Allegion has the right people in place to help ensure this. Our employees have shown a great deal of adaptability during these uncertain times. I could not be prouder of our people. Our management acted early to mitigate the economic impact. Our supply chain has proven itself to be flexible, proficient, and dependable and we are positioned to continue leveraging as a strength moving forward. And of course, our legacy brands have stood the test of time and delivered incredible value. Allegion is strong, its people are resilient and we remain focused and disciplined. I do want to thank every member of the Allegion team for a successful Q1 2020. Everyone stay safe and healthy. And now Patrick and I will be happy to take your questions.

Hey, gentlemen, good morning. Hope everybody is well.

Good morning.

Good morning.

Could you provide some insight into how the demand in the Americas has trended throughout the quarter? Additionally, can you share how April has been performing to give us an idea of what to expect for Q2 and the near future?

Glad to share that. I believe the company responded to COVID-19 early by focusing on our supply chain and ensuring the safety of our employees, which positioned us to gain market share in the first quarter. We performed strongly throughout that period, as reflected in our results in the Americas, demonstrating our robust supply chain. However, towards the end of March, we experienced a minor decline over the last two weeks. Nonetheless, we maintained our momentum and communicated effectively about it. Now, as we are in April and 17 days in, we are observing some predictable trends. There is softness in the overall residential sector, with point-of-sale data showing a drop in the low teens, which seems reasonable. On a positive note, while we see a decrease in bookings within the commercial and institutional sectors, our backlog remains healthy. Construction projects are ongoing, and we believe that as long as ground is broken and permits issued, these projects will proceed. This morning, I noticed construction continues to progress. Lastly, our specifications and quotes remain very encouraging. Even though it's possible to over-spec and quote ourselves into a difficult situation, these metrics are a positive sign as the work continues to flow.

As you consider the second half of this year and looking into 2021, do you see any leading indicators that provide confidence that COVID is more of a temporary issue rather than a more cyclical challenge for non-residential construction overall?

I think you've got to be more critical than people would call it a V. I think the construction pipeline that we have today again, projects that are approved and are in progress will roll. I've got uncertainty about 2021 commercial and institutional. Commercial is going to be soft. I think that's where the strength of our spec writing, our wholesale channels, whatever the market gives us at Allegion, we expect to do better than the market.

Thanks, Tim.

Thank you. Good morning everyone. I hope everyone is doing well. In considering the situation, could you provide some additional insights on decrementals and the nature of their relationship? Specifically, if revenues decline by 10, what decrementals do you anticipate? And if they drop by 20, what might those decrementals be? Feel free to frame your response as you see fit, but it's important for us to make some educated guesses about what lies ahead and establish a basis for our earnings estimates.

Yes. The main uncertainty concerns future demand. As we mentioned, predicting this is challenging due to government actions, and currently, some plant closures might slightly limit our output and create cost pressures from underutilization in the short term. While some parallels can be drawn to previous cycles, such as the drastic changes in 2008, I believe it’s premature to make those comparisons now. We are gathering data from economists, who have varying perspectives. However, I want to highlight a few points that suggest Allegion is better positioned than we were during the last downturn. Firstly, we have a significantly stronger business franchise and a more resilient portfolio since we've divested from underperforming businesses and acquired those better suited for economic downturns. The convergence of electronics has become a major driver for us, growing at 1.5 to 2 times the market rate, and we are performing well in that area. This will continue to grow and remain a priority for us as it has a higher average selling price and similar margins, leading to increased EBIT dollars. Additionally, our investments in the repair and retrofit market have provided us access to a wider product range for our customers, positioning us better than we were at the time of our spin. Regarding our margin profile, historically, we’ve been able to adjust our cost structure quickly. While we expect some margin pressure, it should not be significant compared to our current position. We have recently achieved a record Q1 performance, with margins up 190 basis points, and we will continue to take necessary actions to maintain our cost base. This includes cutting discretionary spending, implementing a hiring freeze, and refocusing on essential investments, which may result in reduced incremental investments, but our long-term focus remains. Ultimately, how demand evolves will dictate our approach to adjusting our costs at both the factory and SG&A levels.

Thanks for taking my question. Regarding the goodwill, it's quite early in the COVID situation, and it seems like you're using that as a reason to write off that goodwill. It appears you've made a definite decision that those acquisitions have not performed as expected. I'm curious if any of the other acquisitions in Europe are close to facing similar challenges with goodwill testing.

So Asia-Pacific as we indicated a write-down there goodwill and indefinite-live assets which pretty much releases the entire balance there. I think there's a de-minimis amount that remains. As we kind of talked about in Q4 the pressure there really given from the Australian market and just weak end-market fundamentals. And so we re-looked at that particularly given the COVID-19 which really accelerated the market decline, kind of as we look at it going forward and so put us in a position to kind of do that analysis which is kind of a discounted cash flow et cetera. When we look at Europe there is some cushion left there. We didn't need to take an impairment. I think hopefully, we took a conservative view on the discounted cash flow and hopefully, we're okay. But time will tell and we'll see where this pans out going forward. But again, end markets continued weakness particularly in Southern Europe. But I feel really good about our electronics business there in the Germanic area. You mentioned acquisitions. SimonsVoss has been a home run for us. And I think there's some good growth opportunity there going forward. So again we'll kind of reevaluate as the year progresses and we'll see what happens when the fog lifts.

I'd add one other comment. If you think about the Asia-Pacific, our acquisition profile has been Australia and one acquisition in Korea. All of those markets were in free fall in the second half of 2019 through the COVID-19 and it's hard to retain that goodwill on the books.

Okay. Thanks for the color. Thanks a lot.

Thank you.

Hi, good morning.

Good morning, Andrew.

I'm just wondering so the first question I have, how should I think about your ability to release working capital in this environment because a lot of companies are telling us that they're going to run-off inventories run for cash. But my understanding also is that a lot of your product in the U.S. is highly customized. So how should I think about your ability to release working capital in second and third quarter as the COVID-19 sort of sweeps through the U.S. as well I guess?

Yes. Most companies with downturns would show a higher cash conversion net earnings because of the runoff in working capital. I think we'll be no different in that situation. However, I just remind everyone our working capital as a percent of revenue is fairly low; four-point average, we're at like 6% of revenue. So there's not a lot of room there for significant cash flow conversion on further reductions in working capital. And actually, Q1 we made substantial progress in both inventory turns and receivable DSO. So there's probably a little improvement there, but I wouldn't look at it as a significant opportunity for further cash flow generation for us, just kind of given where we are relative to maybe other industrial companies.

I'd add to that too. That one of our objectives coming through the first quarter was to have the right inventory. And we made some investments there. As we go through the summer here, we'll probably run a little stronger on finished good inventories as an opportunity. The strength of our supply chain and the ability to get the component parts into the right products where we need them, I think gives us an advantage. And then I'll use that advantage in some inventories to try and get orders to help the business.

I have a second question that is somewhat unrelated. With many municipalities shut down, how is the industry managing the permitting process? What impact will this have on construction activity this summer in both residential and institutional sectors? Thank you.

I think it's important to monitor permits closely. It's reasonable to expect that the permitting processes managed by government will slow down. However, regardless of whether it's institutional or commercial housing, when people are ready to invest capital, they will push that process forward. As you know, permits are a crucial indicator for us, and we will continue to watch it and track its trends. Currently, if we do enter a recovery phase, we can anticipate that the permit process may become more flexible. The focus is on how capital is allocated to stimulate this industry.

So, you think its economic activity driving permitting process. And if economy improves permitting logjam will improve as well.

Yeah.

Thank you very much.

Good morning, everyone. I hope you're doing well. I wanted to inquire about the strength of North American volume in the first quarter. There have been various observations from different people in the industry regarding a pull forward, especially in education and possibly in some healthcare applications. I'm curious if you could describe how much revenue you may have pulled forward from the summer quarters into the first quarter.

We announced a price increase. So we would get some natural pull through as a result of that. But I'd say, generally if you look could across North America a rather mild winter, I think and we executed, at a high level. And we picked up opportunities, in the quarter that others could not serve. So I'd say a robust market, really in Q4 and Q1, you've got the electronics driver. And I think the strength of Allegion is shown hard. And the price increase pulled forward slight demand which I like, as we go through Q2 to be able to serve the local markets.

I have a follow-up question regarding your restructuring efforts in Europe. I know you've been focused on Turkey for some time, and we've discussed that in previous quarters. These changes often take time. Considering the differences in scale, profitability, and growth between your North American operations and what you're doing in Europe and Asia, do you believe it's necessary to maintain a presence in those regions? Would your business be stronger if it focused solely on North America? Additionally, can you elaborate on how the North American results might benefit from your operations in Europe and Asia? Thank you.

I believe that the adjustments we made this quarter, along with the restructuring announcement, will strengthen our franchises. I want to emphasize that we are lacking scale outside of North America. The steps we are taking will help us concentrate on areas where we can succeed, reduce costs to simplify our operations, and maintain our focus on what we refer to as seamless access. There is a complementary aspect to the Australia/New Zealand business, particularly in residential, which is still evolving. Our SimonsVoss and Interflex businesses, which we are very pleased with, provide insight into a seamless access strategy. Moving forward, we plan to direct more human and financial resources into enhancing the seamless access experience as we compete globally.

Great, thanks very much gentlemen. Stay well.

Hi. Good morning, guys.

Good morning.

Dave, just on the pipeline of spec writing that you mentioned was fairly strong. Did folks use this opportunity, or if you look back at other points in time where we've had kind of pauses in activity? Is there kind of a natural lag where, everyone says, okay, here's something I was working on. But I'm going to rethink it and maybe that adds three or six months to kind of the recovery time frame where there is just an air pocket. Is that the way you guys have experienced it in the past? And how should we think about kind of like a natural delay as folks kind of get back to work. And the economy reopens, or does activity continue throughout on the spec writing side?

So Josh, this is my seventh little disruption in the economy since I began my career in 1980. So I think the experiences give you some strength as you go through this. There will be an air pocket. And that's what we're trying to understand. Our bids our quote activity specs we track that in terms of the dollar level of activity. But you can actually have specs kick back and say, 'Hey let's revalue engineer this.' You can't look at this current situation and say, 'Hey there's going to be an air pocket of demand activity because of all supply chain factors, spec writing quotation, wholesale activity, construction, and other supply challenges on the construction side. So, it's a part of our thinking. But I think as a lead indicator that spec writing is a clear strength of Allegion and it will help us as we navigate through this.

That's helpful. Returning to Jeff's question about decrementals, if I reflect on the same business, or at least most of it, under Ingersoll's ownership back in 2009, the margin growth during that period, despite a significant revenue decline, was impressive, achieving hundreds of basis points. Today's starting point is obviously higher, so not all those levers are accessible now. Dave or Patrick, could you remind us what transpired since then? Additionally, could those strategies be revisited or reevaluated today compared to actions that were more of a one-time realignment of the cost structure?

I would characterize it this way entering the 2008 financial crisis there was probably more options to reduce the cost profile particularly on manufacturing footprint. I think IR at the time was fairly aggressive in closing certain factories related to the security technologies business at that time that helped protect the margin profile. Pricing was another lever I think was pushed pretty hard. You kind of have to look at it over the 2008-2010 timeframe. And if I remember correctly, it showed a slight margin decrement over that time period. I would characterize today relative to going into the situation where a better franchise stronger portfolio of businesses that you can maybe protect ourselves more on the topline side. And again we are taking the appropriate actions to reduce our cost structure. Dave talked about actions we're taking in the international arena. Yes, we're doing things here to tighten the belt. Obviously, in the Americas, we'll continue to do that and adjust to future demand. I would say quite frankly we don't maybe have as many levers to pull. But having said that, I wouldn't expect a significant margin degradation relative to where we are today. So, dollars will come down basis of demand, i.e. topline, but margin percent we'll do what we can to try to maintain that.

Got it. Appreciate the color and best of luck guys.

One other quick point worth mentioning is that in the short term, due to government mandates and the closure of some of our facilities, conditions are likely to be quite volatile. When considering the margin profile, it's important to view it over a 12-month period. Initially, we will experience some impact as we make adjustments, but over time, things should stabilize. Keep this in mind as you think through the situation.

Got it. Will do. Appreciate that.

Good morning John.

Hi, good morning and glad to hear everyone is well. I wanted to follow up on that question. Clearly, you're proactively managing costs. Is there a way to quantify how much of this is structural? You mentioned that some actions would have been taken regardless of COVID-19, and then there are the variable cost actions. I'm curious about what might return as volume increases, such as paying employees and similar expenses.

There are variable components in our cost structure, as is typical for any business. This includes factors like our pricing structure and volume rebates. Elements such as salesman commissions will naturally decrease in line with a drop in volume. Currently, we are reassessing some discretionary spending and investment priorities to ensure we focus on the most critical areas that will help us emerge stronger, especially regarding revenue growth opportunities in electronics. We are considering these factors as we move forward. Collectively, these variable costs amount to tens of millions, which gives you an idea of the scale. We will provide more details in Q2 when we have a clearer revenue outlook, and it's quite significant.

I would add the announced restructuring we saw significant softening in Asia Pacific and in areas of Europe as we exited the second half of 2019. We were not pleased with our position and we took actions regardless of the COVID-19 and a pandemic does not. The other thing I would say, when you're in the construction-related industries you do have variation in demand and Allegion's ability to adjust our cost structure, I think can be seen over the last 20 years and we'll be making the moves that help keep this business strong.

Great. And then maybe one about end markets. So I guess the Cares Act fixed somewhat of a bonus depreciation glitch that wasn't part of the tax plan. Wondering if you're hearing from folks that with the QIP adjustment that they're more willing to do interior improvements or if that's something that's nice, but just given the severity of what's happening right now it's not enough to kind of offset some of the demand?

I'm not aware of that feature of the Cares Act. I'm sure that if we feel that's an opportunity we'll go after it. So I can't give you a good response to that one.

Okay. Thanks for the color. I appreciate it.

Okay, John. Thank you.

Thanks. Good morning, everyone.

Good morning.

Yeah. To start, I know a lot of the questions so far have focused on the future. However, regarding the first quarter, the margins in the Americas were notably the best we've seen for that period. I'm curious if there was anything that could be considered one-time in nature during the quarter, or if you could provide more details on pricing for this quarter and your expectations for it as the year continues.

Yeah. So nothing unusual in the quarter that accelerated the margin improvement. It's the old blocking and tackling and execution. The team did a great job. We went into the year, I'd say with a really healthy pipeline of productivity activity around both material and the factory. We got great volume leverage on the incremental volume. And then you add on top of that price was good particularly in the commercial segment we're going to continue to drive that. And so everything played out, and again no real big surprises, but the team really kind of continued to drive good execution all around.

I'd go back even farther Joe. As we exited 2018 as a leadership team, we felt we left margin on the table. We put a pipeline of activities in 2019 that we worked on throughout the year and we picked up strength as we went into the second half of 2019 and 2020 that strengthened the business.

The other comment I just mentioned too on the input costs. So think about commodity prices, they've come down. So year-over-year there was some benefit there where we didn't have any inflation on the material side.

Got it. That makes sense. But Patrick, will that trend continue as the year goes on? I'm also curious about how lasting you think the pricing will be.

Yeah. Basis of the current cost for steel, zinc, copper, brass, et cetera that will continue throughout the course of the year, yes.

That's helpful. I have a follow-up question. If I look back over several years and quarters, the outgrowth you achieved this quarter compared to your largest competitor in Europe and the Americas appears to be the highest we've ever seen. I'm curious if you can explain what you are doing or the impact of the market share gains you are experiencing this quarter. Also, as we all try to understand the demand environment, do you expect to keep outpacing your competitors during this downturn?

I think to start, I'll use a sports analogy. The Patriots won six championships with the same head coach, a strong quarterback, and a solid offensive strategy. In contrast, our competitors have experienced significant management turnover over the past two years. One of Allegion's strengths is our experience; we have a disciplined management system in place. While it's not perfect, the strength of our leadership team and the knowledge that flows throughout our business, along with favorable regional markets, have contributed to our sustained growth over the past six years. Additionally, the electronics trend in our industry is something we prioritize in our investments to capitalize on that opportunity, which I believe will continue to yield positive outcomes for us.

And I'll add Joe too, to be fair on the analysis. So we did have a little bit easier comparison on residential. You may recall, we had some channel difficulties in Q1 last year. Those obviously have been worked through. We continue to get really good electronics growth. And we added a substantial customer on the new construction Lennar that helped our year-over-year comparisons as well.

Yeah. That makes a lot of sense. Thanks guys.

Thank you.

Hi, good morning. I wanted to confirm the business mix within the Americas. Could you remind us about the 2019 split regarding how much of the residential and non-residential parts of the business were related to new construction versus aftermarket or replacement activity for Allegion?

So we would say it's around 50-50 collectively across the entire portfolio.

Hey, Julian, you'd want to think that the non-residential is a little heavier I think on the new construction versus the aftermarket and then it's flipped on the residential, but then it nets out to about 50-50.

Thank you. And how much related to that of your resi sales are going via the big box channel nowadays?

So it's about a third 40% of the business 50% maybe up to 50%.

Thanks very much. And then my second question would be following up on that question from Joe around pricing and productivity. So those items were I think almost a 200-point tailwind to margins in the first quarter year-on-year. Based on your comments, should we assume that that remains a very strong tailwind for the next nine months, perhaps not quite at the level of Q1, but should be a material contributor?

Yes, I believe we will continue to see a positive impact there. However, some of the challenges related to the closure and reduced demand will create some pressure on those comparisons.

Thank you. Hope you guys are doing well.

And you too.

I have a question regarding the integration and installation channel. We are noticing that significant projects are still ongoing. However, there are challenges in getting personnel to job sites, especially for some of the midsized projects. When they do arrive, they must adhere to the local laws concerning personal protective equipment. Additionally, it appears that the smaller SMB market has effectively come to a standstill. Could you provide some insights on the feedback from your installers and integrators about their capacity to work on projects, what work is still moving forward, where there are restrictions on accessing job sites, and which areas are completely closed off?

I think it's clearly a step back in terms of being able to go in service install. Here at Allegion, we have a policy. Visitors are highly controlled. We don't want infection. With that said, it depends on where you're at. The Dallas market continues to be very active. We are moving around college campuses, but it's not going to happen in New York City. It certainly could happen in Denver. So again, it depends on where you're at and it puts an air pocket into the work. So I actually think if things straighten themselves out, there'll be a pickup in intensity short term. And over time, it schedules itself out. I do think the normal project activity that we have typically that goes on college campuses will roll to schedule, which is really May through August. It's an important driver for us. Could be moved up a little early, if access is there, but it depends on where you're at geographically Jeff.

Okay.

Higher infection rates, more difficult access.

I see. We'll monitor the situation at West over the next few weeks. The second point is regarding your investments. I know you've made past investments in areas like collaborative spec writing and touchless access technologies such as NFC. Are you in a position to capture market share through these touchless access solutions and the newer investments aimed at simplifying the process for your customers? Can this lead to continued market share growth, at least in the Americas for now, since it seems to have been effective over the last year?

I believe if you look at our overall growth, the investments that we're making in collaborative tools Overture, which we'll continue to invest and develop. Overture has been rolled out in the bulk of the world as a collaborative working tool and it's been extremely well received by our partners, spec writers, architects and they have been collaborative in the creation of Overture. So I really give Tim Eckersley credit to creating that. We continue to invest in the electronics side of this. I think you may have seen Jeff our investment in open path as a partnership and investment that we think will help expand the world of seamless access. Schlage Sense would be another and our continued investment in electronics and new products. We also brought together SimonsVoss and Interflex under one leadership team, because we believe that that's a looking glass into seamless access. And our growth there in electronics in the DAC region is gaining share. So I think you've got the right sense in that collaborative tools, electronics and seamless access is going to help us as we go through this crisis and come out the other end.

Is that at the margin, or is that something that can actually really move the needle as we come out of this recession?

I think the drivers of seamless access keyless activity simplifying the world that our customers live in eliminating master keys and intelligence that goes with seamless access is going to be a driver for the next two decades.

Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Thank you.

Hey, good morning. Dave you touched a little bit on the restrictions on construction site actually impacting project activity, especially you mentioned institutional. Now institutionally we've always considered it long tail in nature and more defensive as we go into a down cycle. Now, does that dynamic now make it less defensive this down cycle? And the other – extending that question, if site access continue to be restricted through this construction selling season, does it mean you can – you're able to recover beyond fall or in winter season, or you think that's been now pushed to the next construction season which is next summer?

So I like our position in institutional. I was looking last night. 22 of the states have – are generally in pretty good financial shape. Infrastructure has aged. We still have the driver of security in public settings. So you got to like that. And then our spec activity would also suggest that this whole market continued to develop. With that said, an earlier question described an air pocket, we're going to have to have our eyes wide open and understand that air pocket. Part of it is you get some immediate shock. Second is it's that snowplow effect that we've talked about in the past, projects will get pushed out but we may see that air pocket again as we moved into 2021 because budgets are a little bit tighter. So to be seen, I like our institutional position. It's been – in my 40 years, the institutional markets have always been a good place to operate and we'll try and get more than our share out of whatever market is there.

Got it. So can you talk about your Mexico and the Italy plant closures, I mean what percent of sales is coming from those two regions? And when you talk about working with your channel partners to ensure demand is wholesale, does it entail higher costs?

I'll address the revenue situation. To give you some context about Mexico, it primarily supports our residential business in the Americas, which we estimate constitutes about a third of our overall portfolio in the region. The decree has been extended until the end of May. However, we have inventory available and are collaborating with our distribution partners to meet customer demand. Once the situation normalizes, we anticipate a restocking process to address any inventory depletion. So, in the short term, we expect a drop in revenue, especially in Q2. Regarding Italy, the current decree is effective until May 3, but this could change based on government decisions. This region might represent approximately 20% of our European portfolio. We're currently shipping finished goods from our warehouse in Italy, but production and manufacturing are restricted at the moment. This doesn't mean we're losing business; it just indicates delays and deferrals. The reality is that our customers are also closed and unable to receive inventory, which points to deferrals. We'll see how quickly the situation improves in the latter half of the year.

Pete, I have to give a shout out to our Italian teams. We operated safely longer there than many manufacturers. Same in Mexico. We got a few extra days until that decree came down working hard to petition the government now to consider it's essential. I believe in Mexico we can keep our people safer than they are on the streets. And so we're pushing that. Again, we've got a good supply of residential inventory on the shelf. And if we can cut through this, we're going to be in good shape.

All right, Jason?

I appreciate it. So we'd like to thank everyone for participating in today's call. And today more than ever please have a safe day.