Avery Dennison Corp (AVY) — Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Thank you. Please note that throughout today's discussion, we'll be making references to non-GAAP financial measures. The non-GAAP measures that we use are defined, qualified, and reconciled with GAAP on Schedules A4 to A10 of the financial statements accompanying today's earnings release. We remind you that we'll make certain predictive statements that reflect our current views and estimates about future performance and financial results. These forward-looking statements are made subject to the safe harbor statement included in today's earnings release. We have 45 minutes for today's call and will conclude by 11:15 Eastern time. On the call today are Mitch Butier, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Greg Lovins, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Mitch.

Thanks, John. Good day, everyone. We delivered another record in the second quarter with EPS of $2.64, well above our expectations, and are raising our full-year guidance. We now expect earnings of $9.70 to $10 per share for the year, more than 10% above last year and 50% above pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Our ability to consistently deliver impressive financial results rests both on the team's adaptability to execute amidst compounding crises and the strategic foundations we've laid to drive outsized growth in high-value categories, grow profitably in our base businesses, focus relentlessly on productivity, effectively allocate capital and lead in an environmentally and socially responsible manner. A key element of our strategy to drive outsized growth in high-value categories has been our focus on Intelligent Labels. We've invested heavily in this platform and the team, seeding new markets, adding new technological capabilities, and expanding capacity. Our strategies continue to pay off and are now accelerating. Looking ahead, we are increasing our growth outlook for this platform to more than 20% through the strategic horizon. This is a tremendous example of our strategies at work. We have refined our strategies over time, raising the bar for ourselves in the process to ensure we continue to deliver superior value creation for all of our stakeholders. Now a quick update on the quarter by business. Label and Graphic Materials posted strong top-line growth for the quarter driven by higher pricing. Volumes were down due to supply chain constraints, the lockdowns in China, and the impact of exiting Russia that we discussed last quarter. Raw material availability hampered our ability to meet demand. Paper, in particular, was tight and only began to ease at the end of the quarter, and we anticipate further improvements as we move through Q3. The team is doing a tremendous job leveraging our innovation capabilities to offset a good portion of these constraints. And as discussed last quarter, lockdowns in the Greater Shanghai area impacted our materials business' ability to produce for much of April. And while restrictions eased as anticipated, they have had an impact on output as well as end demand in China. Overall, volumes remained strong across LGM, up 4% annually versus 2019. While this is slightly lower than our pace from a quarter ago for the reasons discussed, we anticipate a bounce back as we move into the second half. LGM's margin was strong in the quarter, expanding versus prior year and sequentially. We have further accelerated pricing actions, reducing the time lag between when we experience inflation and implement pricing. We anticipate further inflation as we move into Q3 on paper inputs and energy costs in particular and are continuing to raise prices accordingly. Retail Branding and Information Solutions delivered another strong quarter with significant margin expansion and revenue growth. Strong revenue growth in high-value categories, Intelligent Labels, external embellishments, and the Vestcom acquisition was partially offset by a decline in the base apparel business. Following a robust Q4 and Q1, base apparel volumes were down low single digits in Q2 as some brands and retailers were bringing down inventories that were built up previously. Our outlook assumes further inventory reductions through the balance of the year. We are well positioned to continue to gain share while driving profitable growth in the base. As I mentioned previously, Intelligent Labels momentum is accelerating. We have a stated target of 15% to 20% annual growth in this business over the strategic horizon. And as you know, we have been delivering at the high end of that target. The growth has largely been driven by apparel. And while we continue to see significant opportunity there, long-term, we see even greater opportunity outside of apparel. As the global leader in RFID, we have been strategically investing to not only capture these new opportunities but create them. And as I said earlier, we are increasing our growth outlook for this business and now anticipate more than 20% growth in the coming years. As for the bottom line, RBIS continues to deliver strong EBITDA margins, up more than 2 points compared to last year as we continue to shift this business towards higher-value solutions. As for Industrial and Healthcare Materials, the segment delivered solid sales growth in the quarter and improved margins roughly 2 points sequentially as we accelerated pricing actions to cover inflation. Across the company, I'm pleased with the continued progress we are making toward the success of all of our stakeholders. Our consistent performance reflects the strength of our markets, our industry-leading positions, the strategic foundations we've laid, and our agile and talented team. We remain confident that the strategies we formulate will continue to enable us to generate superior value creation through a balance of GDP plus growth and top-quartile returns over the long run. And once again, I want to thank our entire team for their tireless efforts to keep one another safe while continuing to deliver for our customers during this challenging period. The team continues to raise their game each quarter to address the unique challenges at hand. Thank you. Over to you, Greg.

Thanks, and hello, everybody. As Mitch said, we delivered another strong quarter with adjusted earnings per share of $2.64, up 17% over prior year, driven by significant revenue growth and strong margins. Sales were up 17% excluding currency and 11% on an organic basis driven by higher prices. We delivered a strong adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.4%, up 100 basis points compared to the prior year and 110 basis points sequentially despite the impact of inflation and supply chain disruptions. Earnings were more than $0.20 better than our expectations from a quarter ago despite a currency translation headwind driven by strong operational results of roughly $0.05 from one-time benefits. Turning to cash generation and allocation. Year-to-date, we've generated $282 million of free cash flow with $209 million in the second quarter, up compared to prior year, driven by our strong net income growth. Our balance sheet remains strong with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio at quarter end of 2.2, modestly lower than Q1. Our consistent free cash flow generation and current leverage position give us ample capacity to continue executing our disciplined capital allocation strategy to invest in organic growth and acquisitions while continuing to return cash to shareholders. In the first half of the year, we returned $386 million to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends. Now turning to segment results. Label and Graphic Materials sales were up 15% on an organic basis driven by higher prices which more than offset a decline in volume due to raw material constraints and tough comparisons. Label and Packaging Materials sales were up high teens on an organic basis with strong growth in both high-value product categories and the base business. Graphics and Reflective sales were down mid-single digits on an organic basis. Looking at the segment organic sales growth in the quarter by region. North America sales were up high teens, and Western Europe sales were up more than 20% as demand in both regions remained strong. Emerging markets overall were up mid-single digits. The Asia Pacific region was up modestly with strong growth in India offset by a decline in China due to lockdowns in the Greater Shanghai area that constrained our operations for much of April. And Latin America grew more than 10%. LGM's adjusted EBITDA margin increased 50 basis points to 17.1% and was up 150 basis points sequentially, largely driven by accelerated pricing actions to offset inflation and positive mix. As Mitch said, while we've reduced the time between when we experience inflation and when we implement pricing, our supply chains remain tight, and our input costs continue to rise. We now anticipate inflation will be more than 20% for the year with a mid-single-digit increase expected sequentially in Q3, primarily driven by paper. We continue to address the cost increases through a combination of product reengineering and pricing actions. Shifting now to Retail Branding and Information Solutions. RBIS sales were up 27% excluding currency and 5% on an organic basis as growth was strong in the high-value categories with continued strength in Intelligent Labels and external embellishments while the base business was down low single digits. As Mitch mentioned, growth in the base moderated after a robust couple of quarters. Our performance in premium channels saw particular strength in Q2, partially offset by a decline in the value channel where inventory reductions were more highly concentrated. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the segment of 19% was up more than 2 points, where the positive benefit from higher organic volume and acquisitions more than offset growth investments and higher employee-related costs. Turning to the Industrial and Healthcare Materials segment. Sales increased 7% on an organic basis driven largely by higher prices. Health care sales were up high teens on an organic basis, and industrial categories were up mid-single digits. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.7% was down compared to the prior year and up 2 points sequentially driven by higher volume and accelerated pricing actions to offset inflation. Now shifting to our outlook for 2022. We have raised our guidance for adjusted earnings per share to be between $9.70 and $10, a $0.20 increase to the midpoint of the range despite a roughly $0.25 headwind from currency translation. The increase reflects our strong performance in Q2 and the continued operational increase in the second half. As Mitch mentioned, this outlook reflects more than 10% EPS growth versus prior year, which is 19% excluding currency translation, and a 50% increase in EPS growth compared to 2019. And we now anticipate 16% to 17% excluding currency sales growth for the full year, slightly above our previous expectation, driven by higher prices to mitigate the increased pace of inflation, partially offset by a lower volume outlook in base apparel. As I mentioned, the anticipated impact from currency translation has increased. It's now a roughly $67 million headwind for the full year based on current rates. Given the dollar has continued to strengthen through the first half of the year, assuming rates remain where they currently are, we'll have an additional headwind of roughly $25 million in 2023. Lastly, we continue to anticipate investing up to $350 million on fixed capital and IT projects and roughly $35 million in operating expense, adding capabilities and new capacity particularly in key strategic platforms such as Intelligent Labels, which is poised to grow more than 20% annually in the coming years. In summary, we delivered another strong quarter in a challenging environment. We remain confident that the consistent execution of our strategies will enable us to meet our long-term goals for superior value creation through a balance of profitable growth and capital discipline.

I’d like to start with a broad question about the macro environment. Can you outline your expectations for further destocking in RBIS over the next six months and your outlook for emerging markets, particularly China, in relation to LGM?

George, regarding our outlook, the base apparel business within RBIS saw a low single-digit decline in Q2, primarily in the value channel, where we are observing inventory reductions. This situation is not widespread, and we have accounted for further destocking in our guidance for the remainder of the year. It’s important to note the challenges currently facing the apparel market and the broader macroeconomic impacts. However, our business continues to gain market share and enhance our value proposition. A key strategic focus for us is to gradually transition our portfolio towards higher-value categories. Currently, RBIS is 50% in high-value segments, which contributes significantly to our resilience along with our ability to profitably grow our base. Concerning China, we faced challenges in getting products shipped in Q2 due to our facilities being primarily located in the Shanghai area, and we are witnessing a slow recovery in demand. We are monitoring this situation closely, but do not anticipate an immediate rebound in our overall guidance.

How should we interpret the strong growth in LGM Europe of 20% plus in context of the macroeconomic environment that is clearly taking hold in the region? Was it a function of pent-up demand given various supply chain constraints prior? And what are you seeing in the market at current? And then separately, I apologize if I missed this, but can you also give us a breakout between price and volume by segment?

Yes. Thanks, Ghansham. This is Greg. So overall, in Europe, the majority of our growth in LGM in the quarter really across North America and Europe was pricing driven. So Europe is where we've seen the most significant amount of inflation particularly in paper as we've gone through the last couple of quarters. A lot of that's driven by the increase in energy prices that are impacting our paper producers as well. So we'll continue to see the highest level of inflation across the globe in Europe, and that's where we've had the most amount of pricing actions as well as we moved through the last year or so. So that's largely pricing driven. As we look into really volume perspective, both North America and Europe, we talked about volumes being down particularly in paper due to the constraints we had in the second quarter. I think Mitch mentioned earlier in his comments that we started to see the paper supply flow in late Q2 and increasing into July. So we'll expect that to improve sequentially from a volume perspective, Q2 to Q3. Overall, I think your second question was around pricing across the regions. In line with what I just said, most of our growth in Q2 was around pricing, we're continuing to accelerate the pace of our pricing actions and close the gap in terms of the timing of when we see inflation to when pricing actions take place.

And just to build on that within RBIS specifically. So the overall growth, the vast majority of that is volume if you look at it from an organic basis. We don't usually talk price within RBIS, but we are raising prices within RBIS as well because of the inflation, particularly in Intelligent Labels just given the inflation we're seeing on integrated circuits for that business.

You raised the long-term growth target for smart labels to 20% or better for the foreseeable future. Can you discuss your pipeline and how it has evolved to support this increased target? Additionally, how should we think about the profitability of the business? Historically, you have indicated that it is better than the corporate average. Will this higher growth lead to greater operating leverage and potentially improve overall profitability? What should our perspective be on these matters?

Yes. Regarding your first question, we are increasing our outlook for this platform to over 20% in the coming years, starting next year. The pipeline is strong, and we've been discussing it regularly. We have invested in various areas including food, logistics, and general merchandise, alongside our apparel segment. We noticed growing momentum, particularly during the pandemic over the past couple of years, but it takes some time for these efforts to fully ramp up. Additionally, we indicated that it would be challenging to exceed the 20% target this year due to chip supply issues. Looking ahead to 2023 and 2024, while chip supply will still face constraints, we have been able to secure additional incremental supply that should help us surpass the 20% target. A significant change we anticipate for next year is that the largest contributors to unit volume will come from outside of apparel, even though apparel, which constitutes about three-quarters of our business, will still show strong growth. Food, particularly quick-service restaurants, is gaining momentum, and we are experiencing notable growth in general merchandise categories like home goods and toys as retailers apply insights from apparel to other segments. We are also excited to announce a new pilot with a major grocery company, leveraging the sales channel and data management capabilities from our recent acquisition of Vestcom. In logistics, we are exploring numerous opportunities with various companies. Overall, we have strong momentum and a robust pipeline, and we believe we will achieve growth over 20%. However, supply chain challenges persist, contributing to inflation, and we are passing necessary price increases to address that. In terms of profitability, this business maintains an above-average level. Even with the significant growth in revenue, we will keep investing in the business because we see substantial long-term opportunities in this sector.

This is actually Bryan Burgmeier sitting in for Anthony. I was just wondering, we're more than halfway through the year now, if it's possible to provide a range for free cash flow guidance. I think in years past, you've been maybe 90% to 100% of net income. Do you think that's a fair range to use this year? And then on the FX headwind that you called out in the slide, is it possible to say how much of that headwind has already happened in the first half and how much you're expecting for the second half?

Sure. So on your first question, last year, we delivered a bit more than 100% from a cash flow conversion perspective. I think our expectation for this year, given some of the increased pace of CapEx as well as some working capital increases with all the inflation and pricing actions, we expect it to be a little bit lower than 100% but still in that 90% to 100% range for this year as well. On the FX headwind, we've got about a $0.25 increase versus our previous guidance. About $0.05 of that was in the second quarter, and the other $0.20 is in the back half.

Just curious on LGM and the margin outlook here for second half. I mean you guys have continued on really well offsetting the higher cost with pricing and talked about some new initiatives that you've done to speed that up. It seems like your guidance implies that margins might slip 100 basis points plus in second half. Obviously, there's some end market weakness. But curious if you can draw some color there about what the major factors would be and why you wouldn't stay at kind of that recovered type level here in the second half.

There are several factors contributing to our strong margins across the company, particularly in LGM during the second quarter. One key factor is our favorable product mix, as our specialty business experienced significant growth, increasing over 20% with volumes also rising. Conversely, our bulk paper business faced a decline due to paper constraints. In Q2, we saw a positive mix impact. Additionally, we have been accelerating our pricing strategies, allowing us to align more closely with real-time inflation trends. In fact, Q2 presented the most substantial inflation we've encountered since this cycle began about a year ago. Some of this inflation is still reflected in our inventory at the end of the quarter and will impact our sales in the third quarter as that inventory sells. There were also some smaller, one-time items that influenced Q2 results. Looking ahead, we anticipate a slight mix effect from Q2 into the latter half of the year as base paper volumes return in Q3, along with a sequential increase in inflation. We've previously mentioned that paper prices continue to pose a challenge, especially in Europe and North America. Despite some short-term impacts, we remain optimistic about the long-term growth of this business. Our margin expectations remain strong, and we expect to sustain solid top-line growth with strong margins and capital efficiency. This will continue to generate robust EVA over time, driving sustained EVA growth across the business.

Congratulations on another solid quarter. I have a question regarding your backlogs and their current status. Have they extended further compared to the first quarter? Additionally, given the ongoing inflation, do you still mark your backlogs to market? If so, what has been the customer response to that approach, and will you continue to use it moving forward?

Yes, we do adjust our backlogs. Typically, this business does not have a backlog, and we don't usually discuss it in this context. However, due to quick delivery times and high demand in the market, backlogs started to increase a couple of years ago. We are observing a slight decrease from Q1 to Q2 and hope this trend continues in the second half. Part of this is related to customers re-entering the queue because of uncertainty surrounding the availability of raw materials. We had mentioned this before and expect to see it reduce in the latter part of the year. Especially as we've noted, the constraints around paper and other materials have been easing since the second half of Q2 and are continuing to improve in Q3. The demand remains extremely high, though we haven't specified its scale. Ideally, this business should not have much of a backlog, and we aim to return to that situation in the next few quarters.

So in your RFID business, given that you are raising prices, how much of the improved long-term outlook is due to pricing versus volumes?

We will not discuss pricing, volumes, or dynamics, but the increase can be fully attributed to volumes.

My question is focused on LGM and your commentary about second half volumes recovering after being down in the second quarter. Just curious how the current volume trends look thus far into the third quarter and how you see the second half recovery that you anticipate being manifested. Will the recovery skew towards certain business units or product lines? Or do you expect it to be more or less pronounced in certain geographies? Any color there around that commentary would be helpful.

So just high level, the volume trend had been improving throughout the course of Q2, and we see that continuing into Q3. The volumes are still down at the beginning of Q3, but that's as we expected as the raw material constraints continue to free up and so forth. So we are starting to see here very recently getting to the levels that we would expect. So it's completely consistent with our guidance that we provided, and we're seeing an upward trend as we've commented on. Okay. Great. Well, another great quarter and another great performance by the team. So I just want to thank our entire team once again for their tireless efforts, dedication, and focus. It's truly remarkable. We continue to raise the bar for ourselves and deliver. So thank you to the entire team, and thanks to everybody who joined the call here.