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Charter Communications Inc - Class A

Exchange: NASDAQSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Telecom Services

Charter Communications, Inc. is a leading broadband connectivity company with services available to 58 million homes and small to large businesses across 41 states through its Spectrum brand. Founded in 1993, Charter has evolved from providing cable TV to streaming, and from high-speed Internet to a converged broadband, WiFi and mobile experience. Over the Spectrum Fiber Broadband Network and supported by our 100% U.S.-based employees, the Company offers Seamless Connectivity and Entertainment with Spectrum Internet ®, Mobile, TV and Voice products.

Current Price

$144.61

+1.48%

GoodMoat Value

$927.37

541.3% undervalued
Profile
Valuation (TTM)
Market Cap$18.31B
P/E3.71
EV$123.76B
P/B1.14
Shares Out126.63M
P/Sales0.34
Revenue$54.64B
EV/EBITDA5.57

Charter Communications Inc (CHTR) — Q1 2019 Earnings Call Transcript

Apr 4, 202613 speakers8,376 words73 segments

AI Call Summary AI-generated

The 30-second take

Charter had a strong quarter, adding a lot of new internet and mobile phone customers. Management believes their years-long effort to combine and improve their services is now paying off, leading to better growth and more cash flow. They are excited about their future potential, especially with their high-speed internet network.

Key numbers mentioned

  • Internet customers added over 425,000 in the first quarter.
  • Mobile lines added 176,000 in the first quarter.
  • Monthly median data usage was over 200 gigabytes per customer.
  • Cable adjusted EBITDA growth of 7% in the first quarter.
  • Consolidated free cash flow of $645 million this quarter.
  • Shares repurchased 2.9 million totaling about $1 billion.

What management is worried about

  • The video business faces challenges due to the high price of the big bundle and easy password sharing.
  • Moving enterprise customers to more competitive pricing pressures enterprise revenue per user in the near term.
  • There will be short-term pressure on working capital from financing mobile devices as the business grows quickly.
  • Programming costs are expected to grow at a mid-single-digit rate for 2019.

What management is excited about

  • Their three-year integration effort is beginning to pay off, leading to high-quality customer growth and lower churn.
  • Spectrum Mobile is ramping quickly and is expected to become profitable on a standalone basis at scale.
  • They have a clear, low-cost pathway to offer much faster "10G" internet and wireless speeds in the future.
  • They are seeing declines in customer service transactions and costs due to better products and operations.
  • The commercial/SMB business is underpenetrated and has a long runway for customer growth.

Analyst questions that hit hardest

  1. Craig Moffett (MoffettNathanson) - Wireless profitability and long-term margins: Management gave a long, layered response clarifying that mobile will be profitable under the current deal, but future network investments could improve it further, while avoiding a direct long-term margin target.
  2. Ben Swinburne (Morgan Stanley) - Broadband growth runway and video softness: The CEO gave a broad, conceptual answer about future network capabilities ("10G") and immersive services, somewhat deflecting from the near-term churn and video growth questions.
  3. Philip Cusick (JPMorgan) - De-emphasis of video for mobile: The CEO gave a somewhat defensive response, insisting video is still important and not prioritizing mobile over it, despite acknowledging operational shifts impacting video results.

The quote that matters

We performed well in the first quarter and our three-year effort to deliver better products at better prices... is beginning to pay off in our results.

Thomas Rutledge — CEO

Sentiment vs. last quarter

The tone was more confident and forward-looking, with a clear shift from discussing the completion of integration challenges to highlighting operational momentum and specific growth drivers like mobile adds and internet customer gains.

Original transcript

Operator

Good morning. My name is Michelle, and I will be your conference operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to Charter’s First Quarter 2019 Investor Call. All lines have been muted to avoid background noise. After the remarks from the speakers, there will be a question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Stefan Anninger. Please proceed.

O
SA
Stefan AnningerExecutive

Good morning, and welcome to Charter’s first quarter 2019 investor call. The presentation that accompanies this call can be found on our website, ir.charter.com under the Financial Information section. Before we proceed, I would like to remind you that there are a number of risk factors and other cautionary statements contained in our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K and also our 10-Q filed this morning. We will not review those risk factors and other cautionary statements on this call. However, we encourage you to read them carefully. Various remarks that we make on this call concerning expectations, predictions, plans, and prospects constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from historical or anticipated results. Any forward-looking statements reflect management’s current view only and Charter undertakes no obligation to revise or update such statements or to make additional forward-looking statements in the future. During the course of today’s call, we will be referring to non-GAAP measures as defined and reconciled in our earnings materials. These non-GAAP measures as defined by Charter may not be comparable to measures with similar titles used by other companies. Please also note that all growth rates noted on this call and in the presentation are calculated on a year-over-year basis unless otherwise specified. Joining me on today’s call are Tom Rutledge, Chairman and CEO; and Chris Winfrey, our CFO. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Tom.

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

Thanks, Stefan. With the most customer impacting and capital intensive developments of our integration behind us, we’re now focused on growing our business. We’re doing that by driving high-quality subscriptions, reducing transactions and churn with high-quality products and service, and maintaining and creating product superiority with a value proposition that our competitors don’t provide. We performed well in the first quarter and our three-year effort to deliver better products at better prices via a single operating entity with a unified product marketing and service infrastructure is beginning to pay off in our results. We added over 425,000 Internet customers in the first quarter and we’ve created over 350,000 new customer relationships with customer growth of nearly 4% over the last 12 months. We also added 176,000 mobile lines, over 60,000 more than we added in the fourth quarter. So Spectrum Mobile is ramping quickly as expected. Our cable EBITDA growth of 7% combined with our falling capital intensity yielded strong year-over-year free cash flow growth despite our investments in Spectrum Mobile and the one-time changes in working capital that Chris mentioned last quarter. We have an excellent path in front of us for growth in both customer relationships and cash flow. Our core asset, our powerful, flexible, and easy to upgrade network allows us to offer data-rich wireline and wireless connectivity products to both consumers and businesses. And the demand for both speed and throughput on our network continues to increase driven by more devices in the home and growth in IP video. That demand will continue to grow as new technologies and applications emerge. Monthly data usage by our residential Internet customers is rising rapidly and monthly median data usage was over 200 gigabytes per customer. When you look at average monthly usage for customers that don’t subscribe to our traditional video product, usage climbs to over 400 gigabytes per month, which compares to an average mobile usage of well under 10 gigabytes per month. Over 80% of our Internet customers are now in packages that deliver 100 megabits of speed or more and 30% of our customers are in packages that deliver 200 megabits or more. We’re also seeing strong demand for our Ultra product which delivers 400 megabits and we have gigabit service available everywhere. Despite that, we only penetrate about 50% of our passings with our Internet product today. We view that as low relative to our potential regardless of market conditions given the importance of our connectivity services and the way we price and package them, and the fact that we have a faster, better, and cost-efficient pathway to offer multi-gigabit wireline and wireless speeds in the near future. For example, in only 14 months, we launched DOCSIS 3.1 which took our speeds up to 1 gigabit across our entire footprint at a cost of just $9 per passing enabling 51 million passings to receive this service. We also have the ability at low incremental cost to expand our existing connectivity product set and in coming years through what we call 10G services as our network is bandwidth-rich, fully deployed, and fully powered. Today, our Spectrum Mobile product is being sold through our MVNO agreement with Verizon and we believe that product will help drive our connectivity customer growth. We’re currently testing the possibility to broaden the mobile capabilities of our network using a combination of Dual SIM technology with unlicensed and potentially licensed Spectrum deployed in home, in business, on strand, and across our 51 million passings. Any of that future development will be fully funded through a clear payback on incremental economics to our mobile business with a further goal to deliver unique and truly converged connectivity products more quickly and more efficiently than our competitors. We’re also investing in other new products. In video, we recently launched our TV Essentials package and continue to drive growth of our Spectrum Stream and Choice products. We just launched Cloud DVR functionality for those streaming products. Spectrum Guide is now fully rolled out to all new video connects with a set-top box in over 90% of our footprint and we’re beginning to offer in-app, on-box upgrade capabilities. We’re also working on developing a security, privacy, and control product to accompany our core Internet product which we’ll discuss in more detail in the coming quarters. And in enterprise, we recently launched SD-WAN products nationally which will help drive better selling into multisite customers. So our connectivity product set and the services we sell with them continues to expand and offer a strong penetration growth opportunity. Over the last two and a half years, we have deployed the tools we need to grow new customer relationships quickly. Our sales channels are improving their effectiveness in selling our simple, easy to understand Spectrum pricing and packaging which we modified last fall to include Spectrum Mobile. We’re also seeing an increase in frictionless sales and service delivery to our online sales portals, our growing self-installation program, and our self-service applications. Our operating model and infrastructure is also designed to reduce customer transaction volume and churn and we’re seeing declines in each of those metrics. The improvements are being driven by better product and pricing, less integration activity and the better service we’re delivering whether it be from our call centers or in the field. Our customer care and field operations in-sourcing initiative is nearly complete and continues to produce higher quality service. Our internal IT infrastructure which we’ve built over the last few years will be fully deployed by the end of this year and our self-care platform is developing on schedule. These efforts take time to fully realize but we’re already witnessing a decline in service transactions and better quality service on the customer’s own terms with first-time resolution and less churn. So we’re pleased with our progress and our operating model is designed to drive continuous improvement and long-term growth in a way that works for customers, our employees, communities we serve and our shareholders. Now I’ll turn it over to Chris.

CW
Christopher WinfreyCFO

Thanks, Tom. Turning to our results on Slide 5. Total residential and SMB customer relationships grew by 351,000 in the first quarter and by over 1 million relationships over the last 12 months. Including residential and SMB, Internet grew by 428,000 in the quarter. Video declined by 145,000, wireline voice declined by 99,000 and we added 176,000 higher ARPU mobile lines. 74% of our acquired residential customers were in Spectrum pricing and packaging at the end of the first quarter. Pricing and packaging migration transactions are slowing which together with the completion of the network upgrades last year, means that in 2019, we’re already seeing lower CPE spending, fewer service calls and meaningful term benefits. In residential Internet, we added a total of 398,000 customers versus 334,000 in the first quarter last year. The year-over-year improvement was primarily driven by a decline in churn as our product, billing, service, and collection activities improved. Over the last 12 months, we’ve grown our total residential Internet customer base by 1.2 million customers or 5.1%. Over the last year, our residential video customers declined by 2%. Similar to Internet, we benefitted from a decline in total video churn year-over-year, but that was offset by lower video gross additions. Despite some video loss, we expect to continue to grow our EBITDA and cash flow at healthy rates. As part of a bundle, video drives Internet sales and reduces churn and it remains an integral part of our business strategy for connectivity services even as it drives less standalone profit over time. We’re focused on the full profitability and returns to the customer or passing which includes video when it matters. We continue to add new services to our network and increase our revenue per passing and lower our cost per dollar revenue by adding significant value to as many customers as we can, connected to our fixed network. In wireline voice, we lost 120,000 residential customers in the quarter versus a loss of 54,000 last year driven by lower sell-in following our transition to selling mobile inside the bundle and continued fixed and mobile substitution in the market generally. Turning to mobile. As I mentioned, we added 176,000 mobile lines in the quarter which came from a healthy mix of both Unlimited and By the Gig lines. As of March 31, we now have 310,000 lines, so mobile is ramping nicely and the early results of this product launch remain promising. Over time, we not only expect Spectrum Mobile to become a meaningful driver of our connectivity sales and retention, we also expect it to be profitable on a standalone basis once it reaches scale. And we believe there will be opportunities to further improve the economics of our mobile business and offer unique connectivity services. Last month, we began including the fees and taxes associated with our Unlimited and By the Gig packages within our existing pricing rather than as an add-on making our mobile product even easier to sell and service. Our bring-your-own-device program is expanding on schedule and by the end of the second quarter, we expect BYOD to be launched across essentially all channels and the most popular devices. Over the last year, we grew total residential customers by 861,000 or 3.3%. Residential revenue per customer relationship grew by 1% year-over-year given the lower rate of SPP migration and promotional campaign roll off and rate adjustments. And we did grow subs in wireline voice and video taxes in both revenue and expense as we did last quarter with no impact to EBITDA in the past or now. Those ARPU benefits were partially offset by a higher mix of the Internet-only customers and a higher mix of choice and stream within our video base. As Slide 6 shows, our cable customer growth combined with our ARPU growth resulted in year-over-year residential revenue growth of 4.2%. Keep in mind that our cable ARPU does not reflect any mobile revenue. Turning to commercial. Total SMB and enterprise revenue combined grew by 4.3% in the first quarter. SMB revenue grew by 5% faster than last quarter as the revenue effect from the repricing of our SMB products in Legacy TWC and Bright House has slowed. Sequentially, SMB ARPU was essentially flat and over time we expect our SMB revenue growth rate to converge with our SMB customer relationship growth rate. And we’ve grown SMB customer relationships by about 10% in the last year. Enterprise revenue was up by 3.4% and excluding cell backhaul and Navisite, enterprise grew by 6.1% with 11% PSU growth year-over-year. Our enterprise group is at an earlier stage of its own pricing and packaging similar to what we’ve done in our SMB and residential businesses over the last two years. The process of moving customers to more competitive pricing pressures enterprise ARPU in the near term, but ultimately the revenue growth will follow the unit growth as it’s beginning to do in SMB. First quarter advertising revenue declined by a little over 3% year-over-year due to less political revenue in the quarter. Mobile revenue totaled $140 million with $116 million of that revenue being EIP device revenue. So in total, consolidated first quarter revenue was up 5.1% year-over-year with cable revenue growth of 3.8% or 4.1% when excluding advertising. Moving to operating expenses on Slide 7. In the first quarter, total operating expenses grew by $387 million or 5.7% year-over-year. Excluding mobile, operating expenses increased by 2%. Programming increased 4.1% year-over-year as we had a small programming benefit in the first quarter. And as I mentioned last quarter, a mid-single digit growth rate is probably a good baseline for 2019 programming cost growth. Regulatory connectivity and produced content grew by 5% driven by the same voice and video tax and fee gross up in revenue, video CPE devices sold to customers partly offset by a year-over-year decline in content cost given fewer Lakers games in the first quarter of 2019 versus the first quarter of 2018. Cost to service customers declined by 1.7% year-over-year compared to 3.8% customer relationship growth. And even when excluding some bad debt improvement, cost to service customers were down slightly year-over-year. So we’re meaningfully lowering our per-relationship service cost which is core to our strategy. Whether through in-sourcing, training, business process, and system changes, these are all a series of small improvements which together with our pricing and packaging promotion structure generates improvements which take time but ultimately drive momentum. Cable marketing expenses declined by 2% year-over-year and other cable expenses were up 4.8% driven by insurance and software costs. Mobile expenses totaled $260 million and were comprised of mobile device cost tied to the EIP device revenue, market launch costs and operating expenses to stand up and operate the business, including our own personnel and overhead costs and our portion of the JV with Comcast. Cable adjusted EBITDA grew by 7% in the first quarter. And when including the mobile EBITDA startup loss of $120 million, total adjusted EBITDA grew by 4.2%. As we look to 2019, annualizing our fourth quarter 2018 mobile EBITDA loss is a good starting place for estimating our 2019 mobile EBITDA losses subject to the same assumptions we laid out on the last call. Turning to net income on Slide 8. We generated $253 million of net income to Charter's shareholders in the first quarter versus $168 million last year. The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by higher adjusted EBITDA, lower depreciation and amortization expense, and lower merger and restructuring charges and that’s partly offset by higher GAAP tax expense and non-cash write-down of a Legacy TWC investment and higher interest expense. Turning to Slide 9. Capital expenditures totaled just under $1.7 billion in the first quarter with our cable CapEx declining by about $600 million year-over-year that was driven by lower CPE with less SPP migration and as we finished all digital last quarter. We also had lower scalable infrastructure primarily driven by the completion of our DOCSIS 3.1 upgrade in the fourth quarter and lower support spending within cable. That was partly offset by higher spend on line extensions as we continue to build out and fulfill our merger conditions. And we spent $88 million on mobile-related CapEx this quarter which is mostly accounted for in support capital and was driven by retail footprint upgrades for mobile and software, some of which is related to our JV with Comcast. Annualizing our fourth quarter 2018 mobile CapEx figures remains a simple way to estimate our full year 2019 mobile CapEx. We expect mobile CapEx for the launch of our MVNO service will decline following the upgrade of our retail footprint. As a reminder, for the full year 2019, our internal plan calls for roughly $7 billion of total cable CapEx in 2019 despite the usual first quarter seasonality. If we find new high ROI projects during the course of the year or that accelerated spend on existing projects would drive faster growth, we would continue to do so. An example in mobile would be a clear payback on moving traffic onto our own network and while that’s probably not a 2019 event, it is something we’ll evaluate as our mobile network develops the capabilities Tom outlined. Slide 10 shows we generated $645 million of consolidated free cash flow this quarter, including about $290 million of investment in the launch of mobile. Excluding mobile, we generated $936 million of cable free cash flow, up nearly $1 billion versus last year’s first quarter. The year-over-year growth was driven by higher adjusted EBITDA and lower cable CapEx. And as expected, we had a negative change in cable working capital during the first quarter primarily due to a meaningful decline in our cable CapEx accruals and payables. Although I expect our full year change in cable working capital to be negative primarily because of Q1, as we move through the year, the cable business should exhibit more typical quarterly working capital seasonality. And as we move to 2020, I would expect changes in our cable working capital to be neutral to beneficial to our full year free cash flow results. On the mobile side, we continue to add mobile customers, which drives handset-related working capital needs as we accelerate growth rates and we should expect to see that trend continue for the foreseeable future. On the balance sheet, we finished the quarter with $73.4 billion in debt principal. Our current run-rate annualized cash interest including the impact of repaying $2 billion of TWC 8.25% notes on April 1st that is now $3.8 billion. As of the end of the first quarter, our net debt to the last 12 months adjusted EBITDA was 4.43x. We intend to stay at or below the high end of our 4x to 4.5x leverage range and we include the upfront investment of mobile to be more conservative than looking at cable-only leverage and that cable-only leverage was 4.34x at the end of Q1 and it’s declining. We have strong visibility on EBITDA growth and accelerating cash flow growth, tax assets, long-dated maturities, and attractive weighted average cost to debt and we naturally delever as much as a half turn per year absent buybacks. All of that suggests our current leverage is prudent and if we see a permanent increase in our refinancing costs, a change in business outlook, or investment opportunities, we can reduce our total leverage quickly and efficiently. During the quarter, we also repurchased 2.9 million Charter shares and Charter Holdings common units totaling about $1 billion at an average price of $330 per share. And since September of 2016, we’ve repurchased 20% of Charter’s equity at an average price of $328 per share. So our operating model network capabilities now in the future and our balance sheet strategy all work together over long periods of time and we expect our results to reflect a growing infrastructure asset with a lot of ancillary products to sell on top of our core connectivity services with good value and service to our customers to grow cash flow with tax advantaged levered equity returns.

Operator

Your first question comes from Vijay Jayant from Evercore. You may proceed.

O
VJ
Vijay JayantAnalyst

Thanks. Tom, you’ve talked about the strategic interest in firstly getting some mid-band spectrum and you talked about trying to get mobile traffic on your network. Can you just talk about what the opportunities are and what the investment opportunity can be? And I don’t think it’s a 2019 event per se, but anything on that front would be helpful. And then very quickly for Chris, you talk about the shift in working capital. Is that something we should start seeing in 2Q given this is a massive use of working capital in 1Q and going forward becoming a tailwind? Thank you.

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

As I said in my remarks, it probably isn’t any time issue. We are doing experiments with the capability of moving traffic in an efficient way where it’s economically viable to do so, which means that whatever capital investment we would make would be offset by a reduction in MVNO cost and therefore would be a higher return than we would get by just spending MVNO cost. So it’s really at least by build analysis. So from a technical point of view, there are multiple spectrum opportunities, some of which are free and some of which are licensed. CBRS is what we’re experimenting in and that will be available to us at no cost, at least part of it will be. And we also continue to develop WiFi and WiFi capabilities. And so there are a mix of WiFi licensed and unlicensed opportunities and they can be used in different locations. We look at really sort of three physical infrastructure zones; one is the home, one is on the physical plant and the other is potentially macro-tower type spectrum capabilities. We think that the most significant opportunity may be on our strand, but we haven’t completed any of the experiments yet and we haven’t decided to deploy any capital, but that’s the opportunity.

CW
Christopher WinfreyCFO

Vijay, on the working capital question taking a step back and a growing cable business because it has longer DPO than DSO should actually contribute cash to working capital. And so since we’re in the cable business, we expect over the longer term and full year cycles to actually generate cash flow from working capital. That wasn’t the case in Q1 as we had a big step down in our capital expenditure, a big step down in our payables and accruals related to that. And so you have the one-time hit associated with unwinding that CapEx cycle. We also had the one-time benefit on the windup if you look back in 2016 and 2017, we actually generated $2 billion of cash flow from working capital some of which was permanent due to balance sheet management practices, some of it was simply just by stepping up the level of capital expenditure through the integration. But now that we’re done through that, it doesn’t mean that quarters won’t have seasonality. They do. There’s large seasonality in cable inside the quarters, but the seasonality will start to look a little bit more normal like it has in the past beginning into Q2. We’re still making some minor changes inside the business that could have small impacts. I’ll give you one example. In a business of this size we’re collecting well over $100 million a day for customer receipt. So how you end the quarter, whether it’s on a weekend or not can have a bit impact one year or for another. But all that aside, the normal seasonality should start to look the same really from Q2 going forward. And when you get into 2020 in the cable side of the business, working capital to the extent we’re growing should actually be neutral if not actually creating cash flow to free cash flow. That doesn’t include mobile and mobile’s a function of how faster you’re growing your devices. And the amount of payments that you’re receiving on these devices that we’re financing is also a function of how much BYOD that you’re taking on. Clearly bring-your-own-device not only makes it easier for consumers and makes it easier to point of sale, but it also reduces the load on us to have to go finance the device for that customer. And so we’re pretty excited about BYOD being introduced. But if you’re stepping up the amount of gross additions and some of that is including EIP type device financing, there’s going to be a short-term pressure on working capital which relates to mobile. It’s not a question of value. You get the money back over time. It’s just a question of timing.

VJ
Vijay JayantAnalyst

Thank you both.

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

You’re welcome.

CW
Christopher WinfreyCFO

Yes.

Operator

Your next question comes from Craig Moffett from MoffettNathanson. Your line is open.

O
CM
Craig MoffettAnalyst

Yes, hi. Thank you. Two questions if I could. First, I just want to clarify your comment earlier that the current wireless or the wireless business will be profitable once it reaches scale. Should we assume that means under the current deal or is that only given some of the network enhancements and moving traffic onto your own network that you’ve been describing in the last couple of minutes? And then if you can also just talk about the longer-term margin and CapEx trajectory for the business, Chris? I think with the CapEx guidance for this year obviously being quite a bit lower than what people might have thought a few months ago and with margins continuing to expand, where do you think those can go longer term?

CW
Christopher WinfreyCFO

So the comments that we’re making about the ability to improve the economics of the mobile business really would be opportunities. We expect Spectrum Mobile to be profitable on a standalone basis without considering any of the benefits to cable and under the existing arrangement that we have with Verizon which we quite like. We expect that all to be profitable on a standalone basis and to add value to cable. So some of the opportunities that we’ve been talking about would be opportunities to make it even more profitable, maybe even faster and to create a unique product out there that doesn’t exist today. But as Tom mentioned, we’re traveling trials all across the country with different versions of Spectrum; fixed, mobile, et cetera. And we’re working with Dual SIM. But it’s probably not a 2019 event. So when I talk about profitability of the business, it’s sort of the agreement we have, the relationship we have that’s extremely well. We expect mobile to be profitable on a standalone basis with or without any of those opportunities.

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

And profitable to Verizon as well.

CW
Christopher WinfreyCFO

Yes, and we think it’s very accretive to Verizon over time as well. As it relates to longer-term CapEx guidance, we haven’t given any and we’re not known for doing that either. But what I would tell you is that the capital expenditure for cable as a percentage of revenue, we don’t see anything on the horizon that doesn’t cause it to continue to decline in capital intensity as a percentage of revenue. All of that comes about because the CPE environment has gotten much more efficient, meaning we need less of it particularly on video. A lot of that is because the integration capital is now largely behind us and because the video product which has lower set-top boxes for traditional video household and we have streaming products and we just populated in our entire base of customers with new brand new CPE that has DOCSIS capabilities means that the intensity of that is going to decline. So could it get into the low-double digits? For sure and I think that’s what our plans internally contemplate. I will tell you, Craig, you think about this a lot, cable has the ability to continue to invent new products. And so we’ll work our way down on cable intensity, but there’s probably revenue streams out there that nobody is modeling today that nobody’s thought of today that’s aren’t in their own business plans today and that’s been the opportunity in cable really for decades and I don’t think that goes away either.

CM
Craig MoffettAnalyst

All right. Thank you. And just one clarification. Is this probably the peak spending year for wireless or at least the peak – the year for peak losses or is that more likely to be 2020?

CW
Christopher WinfreyCFO

The losses is a trickier question because it depends on how fast you’re growing. And so to the extent that you’re growing fast in any subscription business that’s coming from the standing start, you’re going to have more EBITDA losses. So I don’t want to sit here today and forecast which I could from an economic standpoint. If we were at a standstill, we weren’t throwing. Then the answer to your question would be yes. 2020 will be a better year. But we actually have to grow faster and so that may put more sales and marketing pressure on us and the ability to go acquire customers. As it relates to CapEx, the bulk of the capital expenditure should be through this year maybe a little bit bleeding into next year as we finish our retail footprint. That’s our base plan. That’s the agreement that we have with Verizon. To the extent there are opportunities to build on wireless to have a clear payback and an ROI to expand our fixed-line network, our WiFi network to move into small cells, to the extent that comes about we’ll articulate it really clear and there may be an investment if we end up doing that there to be tied to an ROI and a payback as well as just on the cost side. And then to the extent you get a unique product, clearly you have revenue synergies from that as well.

CM
Craig MoffettAnalyst

All right, that’s helpful. Thank you.

SA
Stefan AnningerExecutive

Thanks, Craig. We’ll take our next question, Michelle.

Operator

Okay. One moment please. Your next question will come from Jonathan Chaplin from New Street. Your line is open.

O
JC
Jonathan ChaplinAnalyst

Thank you. So I think the residential results really speak for themselves with the acceleration we’re seeing in broadband, better than expected EBITDA and the context you gave around usage for non-video subs I think really helps put the wireless substitution and the fixed wireless broadband thread into context for people. I’d love to just focus a little bit more on the enterprise business. So, Chris, I think you said that subscribers in SME are growing at 10% and revenue growth should converge with subscriber growth. Is that 10% subscriber growth sustainable? Is that where you expect revenue growth to accelerate towards? And how sort of quickly over the course of this year should we see that acceleration happen? And then can enterprise achieve a similar kind of growth profile as SME? And then I guess finally on the enterprise business, are the incremental margins for that business similar to the residential business or is there more cost associated with it? Thanks.

CW
Christopher WinfreyCFO

There’s a lot in there. In SMB, clearly our goal is to continue to grow at those type of rates for SMB as the business gets larger, a lot of percentage just means that it’s a little bit harder to do. But whether it’s high-single digit or low-double digit, I think our view is that the SMB market is underpenetrated by us and that we’ve converted a lot of value there.

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

It’s clearly underpenetrated relative to residential too and therefore you would think that it has a number of years of growth in front of it.

CW
Christopher WinfreyCFO

I agree. Regarding the timing of the revenue growth rate, you can clearly see the year-over-year growth rates, how they reached their lowest point, and how they are now increasing. Unlike the residential segment, this area does not experience rapid changes. However, revenue growth is picking up. While we may not fully recover to the same growth rate as our unit growth rates by the end of this year, we expect it to improve significantly. As you look to 2020, the growth could align more closely with customer growth rates and potentially open up pricing opportunities over time. The enterprise segment will take even longer to navigate. I’m not sure if we are currently at or nearing the lowest point for enterprise, but we anticipate it will follow a similar cycle. Those contracts typically span a longer term. This business is growing at an 11% PSU growth rate, and our core fiber connectivity is expanding even faster than that. When it comes to the economics for SMB, the ROI or payback model resembles that of the residential sector. It is a high transaction business with larger ARPUs and a lower term rate, but it also features lower upfront costs, which inflates the payback metrics. On the enterprise side, it is a very profitable business with a multi-year payback period mainly due to initial construction costs, especially when new fiber installations are required. However, it has a significantly higher operating margin.

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

Higher capital, higher operating margin.

CW
Christopher WinfreyCFO

That’s right. And so what that means is that you end up with a multiyear payback as opposed to 18 months payback. As a result, you end up with physical network infrastructure going into building that allows the acquisition of the next customer to be acquired at a higher ROI and a better payback.

JC
Jonathan ChaplinAnalyst

That’s great. Thank you.

SA
Stefan AnningerExecutive

Thanks, John. Michelle, we’ll take our next question please.

Operator

I’m going to try to open the line of John Hodulik again. Your line is open.

O
JH
John HodulikAnalyst

Great. Thanks. Can you guys hear me?

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

Yes, John.

JH
John HodulikAnalyst

Okay, great. Maybe another question on the cost side. You guys have some guidance out there for programming cost growth. On the non-programming cost growth side you’ve seen some declines. Can that continue to come down? And is there any sort of granularity you can provide us on some of the opportunities? You talked about moving more towards digital transactions. Anything else you can give us on that line item? And then although it’s small, I noticed that Navisite is providing a little bit of a headwind in terms of revenue growth, a lot of other carriers have sold their data center operations. Any chance that you guys could look to monetize that asset? Thanks.

CW
Christopher WinfreyCFO

On the cost to service you mentioned, we have several factors at play. One is lower bad debt, which I discussed earlier. Additionally, we have successfully completed the customer-facing integration, resulting in fewer calls, reduced truck rolls, and lower churn, and we believe this is just the beginning of the positive momentum we’re generating. Tom has often highlighted our shift towards self-installation and online service, which can significantly reduce costs. I believe there is substantial potential for ongoing productivity improvements. Our customer relationship growth rate is approximately 4%, and even with a 1.7% decrease in the cost to service customers, we're looking at nearly 6% productivity growth, despite wage increases, which is considerable given the size of our business. While I can’t predict if this growth will continue at the same pace, I do expect improvements on a per-customer basis. However, we have separate sales and marketing costs. With accelerated growth, you'll notice those expenses will increase as well. For new customers, the cost to provision them affects our overall cost structure; thus, an increase in newly acquired customers during growth can negatively impact our cost to serve. Your second question was regarding enterprise opportunities. We are exploring various options. Navisite was an asset gained through TWC, but we typically refrain from commenting on M&A related to our various assets.

JH
John HodulikAnalyst

Okay. Thanks, guys.

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

I believe the cost to serve presents a greater opportunity than we initially realized a few years back. We always intended to reduce costs by enhancing wages, improving the quality of every service interaction, and boosting the skills of our team, along with the tools and equipment they use, to extend customer lifetimes through increased satisfaction. This, in turn, leads to reduced operational activity. A business with lower customer churn incurs fewer costs than one with higher churn. To achieve this, we need to invest more in each transaction to elevate their quality. We are seeing a rapid decline in transaction volume, which is attributed to improved customer satisfaction and reduced service activity due to enhanced operations, creating a positive cycle that further boosts satisfaction. This was always part of our strategic thinking and informs how we approached our integration. Additionally, we are gaining advantages through digital self-service capabilities, such as allowing customers to directly receive and self-install their equipment, which is beneficial for us and was not originally included in our operational planning model.

SA
Stefan AnningerExecutive

Good. Thanks, John. Michelle, we’ll take our next question please.

Operator

Your next question comes from Ben Swinburne from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

O
BS
Ben SwinburneAnalyst

Thank you. I have a question for Tom on broadband growth and then a question for Chris. Tom, you guys are doing I think you said 5% broadband customer growth in the last 12 months. You called out churn being a driver of that growth. When you look out, can you talk about the runway you see ahead of the business to keep that growth rate going or at least to continue to drive down churn from where you are today? And you called out something I think you referred to as 10G services. I think I got that right tied to connectivity. Since you mentioned it in your prepared remarks, I wanted to see if you had more color on the product roadmap? And then just for Chris more near term, you’re lapping last year’s billing system stuff which I think impacted both customer adds and bad debt. Could you just help remind us how Q2 compared to Q1 last year so we can think about the impact in the quarter we just saw versus what’s coming up? Thank you.

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

So, Ben, I’ll do the 10G question. Chris can talk about our year-over-year comps. The 10G notion is really connected to what we just accomplished in going to 1 gig and it’s the capability of a relatively inexpensive upgrade to our physical infrastructure and to provide a whole new level of service. And 10G is a set of specifications that we’ve actually completed at CableLabs for the whole traditional cable TV broadband industry that creates a technical pathway to upgrade plant at reasonable costs to 10 gigs symmetrical service. And it will ultimately allow us to have 10 gig wireless service. In fact, all the devices we anticipate in the future being connected to our network will most likely be wireless products. And so 10G is a set of specifications that take us to a new platform. And we can build that platform incrementally through time going to 3G or 5G or 10G and actually a whole new set of specs are being developed to go to 25 gig capability and we’ve been able to expand realistically through testing and specifications the capacity to our network by 4x. So we’re 750 megahertz capacity platforms today but we can see ourselves going to 3 gigabit capability in terms of breadth spectrum available in our infrastructure. So it’s really designed as a notion to show that we have a great infrastructure platform that we can build new infrastructure platform capabilities on top of what we already have at low incremental costs and create new industries. Now I don’t know who needs 10 gig symmetrical today, but that probably means that we have a very high compute low latency, high capacity network. And what are the services that require that gaining new forms of entertainment that are very immersive and new forms of education in medicine that are very immersive. And we think we are the platform of choice for the development of those future products.

BS
Ben SwinburneAnalyst

And just on churn, Tom, any comment on runway to keep driving that down and keep this level of broadband growth going?

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

Well, yes. We still think we’re underpenetrated both in residential and in commercial and we think that there’s a lot of opportunity for growth with superior products and high-quality products and superior service and pricing impacting of those products. And our primary objective to grow market share through quality and we think there’s lots of upside.

CW
Christopher WinfreyCFO

So, Ben, that was the longer-term outlook and clearly if you take a look at the results in the past couple of quarters, we have momentum and we had a strong quarter in customer relationship and Internet net adds. They improved meaningfully year-over-year. In part that was driven as you mentioned by the high level of integration activity and disruption that we have and much of which we planned for in 2018. So in the shorter term, our goal is to accelerate relationships and financial growth in 2019. But as you think about the rest of the year, keep in mind that the 2018 quarters were less impacted by integration activity as the year progressed. And so to your point, does that mean it becomes a slightly more difficult comp over the year? Yes, but we also have the benefit of the changes that we have made, the momentum that we’re creating that clearly Q1 we had a strong quarter in our goals to continue to get better throughout the year and longer term for all the reasons that Tom mentioned.

SA
Stefan AnningerExecutive

Michelle, we’ll take our next question please.

Operator

Your next question comes from Bryan Kraft from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

O
BK
Bryan KraftAnalyst

Thanks. Good morning. You obviously had a strong first quarter as far as broadband sub growth. Can you just comment on a competitive environment broadly, are you seeing any change in competitive behavior or promotional intensity from any of your large competitors or are things pretty much stable? And then I also wanted to ask a follow up on margins. Excluding mobile, cable EBITDA margin improved by about 110 basis points year-over-year. Was there anything in the quarter that was temporary or unusual in this quarter’s numbers relative to how you’re thinking about the rest of the year? Thank you.

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

So, Bryan, I think that the competitive environment hasn’t changed significantly. This year it’s still very competitive. And what we’re doing is improving our own products and the way we operate. And I think the change in our growth rate is primarily because of things we’re doing not because of the way the marketplace is behaving.

CW
Christopher WinfreyCFO

And on margin, there’s seasonality each year inside of cable business based on the quarterly connects. So if you think about Q2, it’s a heavy disconnect quarter; Q3 is a heavy connect quarter. Both of those have been impacting margins, but that’s the same year-over-year. The only thing that was unique inside of Q1 this year, we had I mentioned as we think about future quarters programming costs, we had a small benefit that wasn’t particularly large but a small benefit in programming. And the comments I made about our expectations for programming for this year would be in mid-single digits or close to that 4%. It’s a pretty small difference but that’s the only thing that was inside the quarter that I would highlight in that respect. The business is getting more efficient for all the reasons that we talked about earlier on the cost to serve primarily.

BK
Bryan KraftAnalyst

Thanks very much.

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

Thank you.

SA
Stefan AnningerExecutive

Michelle, we’ll take our next question please.

Operator

Your next question comes from Philip Cusick from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

O
PC
Philip CusickAnalyst

Hi, guys. I guess a little bit of a follow up. Obviously the broadband results were great but the video sub number’s softer year-over-year. And despite the TV Essentials launch, you mentioned video gross adds were down year-over-year. Should we see this as the company deemphasizing video in some way or has there been a shift away from the video broadband double play that you were focused on in the fourth quarter? Thanks.

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

The video business has its challenges. We’ve talked about a lot over the last several years and we’ve said we’re sort of financially indifferent to what’s going on in the video business, but we still believe that video is an attractive product that we should sell and it should be integral to our product and helps drive our core relationships. All the trends in video that have been going on continue to go on and the issues that are knocking video growth down are the price of the big bundle and the security of the big bundle and it’s easy to get with password sharing and we still think a high priced, easy to get for free service is a hard thing to sell off. And that we continue to develop new video products and we’re trying to serve the whole marketplace and be available as a video provider with high quality integrated video service for all the customers that want to buy that service from us. So where we stand in the continuum and what our operational issues are as we begin to emphasize mobile in our packaging? Yes, those things have small effects on the general performance of the company and they probably do on our video game, but the macro trends I think are that video is going to decline and the question is how fast. And I think with satellite declining at the rate it is but there are opportunities for us to convert those customers into our customers along with making them our broadband customers. And so we still think that video is a driver for us in terms of customer creation. But it’s prioritized in our internal operational tactics appropriately based on everything I just said.

PC
Philip CusickAnalyst

So as you sell a product to a new customer, obviously broadband first. Now mobile seems to have taken some precedent in that selling process versus video.

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

I wouldn’t say it takes a precedent but mobile has its own – we’re still ramping mobile into our operation. And we’re changing the nature of our triple play and the price value relationship of our triple play as a result of mobile. And it impacts the overall performance of the individual components. But video is important to us and mobile’s important to us. But they’re important really as drivers of the whole relationship. And so I wouldn’t prioritize one over the other.

PC
Philip CusickAnalyst

Got it. Thanks, Tom.

SA
Stefan AnningerExecutive

Thanks, Phil. Michelle, we’ll take our next question please.

Operator

Your next question comes from Mike McCormack from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.

O
MM
Mike McCormackAnalyst

Hi. Great. Thanks, guys. Maybe just a quick comment. I noticed you said taxes and fees are not included in the mobile plans. How much of an impact does that have on profitability? And I guess, Chris, if you could just sort of walk through where that’s being accounted for? I presume it’s just the contra-revenue line? And then secondly just on the buyback, is this pace staying in 1Q something we should expect to continue for the balance of the year? Thanks.

CW
Christopher WinfreyCFO

Sorry, what was the second question that you had?

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

Buyback pace.

MM
Mike McCormackAnalyst

The buyback pace staying in 1Q is the correct run rate.

CW
Christopher WinfreyCFO

Regarding profitability, our goal has always included all-in taxes and fees, and it has been part of our plan from the beginning. This was not a new concept for us, as we intended to implement it. When considering our pricing of $14 per gig and $45 for unlimited, we always planned for this to extend to both existing and new customers as previously stated. This has been included in our financial plans. It functions similarly to our voice product, particularly our fixed line and wireline services, which follow the same strategy as most of our other products, being accounted as contra revenue. In terms of mobile revenue, this quarter we reported a total of $140 million, with $116 million coming from device sales. The impact from our recent implementations on current subscribers is not significant, and it has been part of our forward strategy. We believe this approach helps differentiate us in the market compared to competitors. As for share buybacks, we do not provide guidance on them. We avoid setting a numeric target that could create a rigid goal. If a better investment opportunity arises, it would be unproductive to pursue a previously established target. We don’t believe that fixed buybacks are the best approach to enhancing shareholder value. In the first quarter, the mobile investments we are making, along with the working capital from our cable business, influenced the amount of buybacks. It was primarily because we lacked a better use for capital during that quarter.

MM
Mike McCormackAnalyst

Makes sense. Thanks, Chris.

SA
Stefan AnningerExecutive

Yes.

Operator

Your last question for today is from Jason Bazinet from Citi. Your line is open.

O
JB
Jason BazinetAnalyst

This is maybe a little bit of a strange question given your investment in active video and what you’ve just completed on the box side, but do you mind just updating us on sort of your thinking about licensing X1? Is that still something that is unappealing to you? And if so, do you mind just reminding us your philosophy behind that? Thanks.

TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

Well, Jason, we’re down the road with our own user interface but we have a good relationship with Comcast and we’ve had discussions with them about licensing their X1 platform and their new IP video platform. And if we can make that the best platform for us, we’d certainly be willing to do that and we think they’d be a great provider. To date, we haven’t and we like our own UI and we like having our ability to change that UI at the pace we want to change it and to make it reflect our marketing strategy consistent to the extent we’re different than Comcast or anyone else out there. We want to be able to continue to have that capability. So if we can sort of check all the boxes in terms of having complete flexibility and low cost, we could become a vendor of Comcast in terms of our platform. To date, we haven’t been able to do that.

JB
Jason BazinetAnalyst

Understood. So it’s more about flexibility. All right. Thank you.

SA
Stefan AnningerExecutive

Thanks, Jason. Michelle, that ends our call.

Operator

Thank you everyone for participating in the conference call. You may now disconnect.

O
TR
Thomas RutledgeCEO

Thank you very much. Thanks everyone.