Caesars Entertainment Inc (CZR) — Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Thank you, Tanya, and good afternoon to everyone on the call. Welcome to our conference call to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings. This afternoon, we issued a press release announcing the financial results for the period ended December 31, 2024. As usual, a copy of the press release is available in the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.caesars.com. Joining me on the call today are Tom Reeg, our Chief Executive Officer; Anthony Carano, our President and Chief Operating Officer; Bret Yunker, our Chief Financial Officer; Eric Hession, President of Caesars Sports and Online Gaming; and Charise Crumbley, Investor Relations. Before I turn the call over to Anthony, I would like to remind you that during today's conference call, we may make certain forward-looking statements under safe harbor federal securities laws, and these statements may or may not come true. Also during today's call, the company may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by SEC Reg G. Please visit our Press Release located on our Investor Relations website for a reconciliation of the differences between each non-GAAP financial measure and the comparable GAAP financial measure. I will now turn the call over to Anthony.

Thank you, Brian, and good evening to everyone on the call. During our fourth quarter, regional performance improved sequentially as we opened our Caesars New Orleans expansion in October and Caesars Virginia in December. In Las Vegas, we posted roughly flat year-over-year results despite a tough comparison versus last year’s inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix F1 race. Excluding customer outcomes from our digital segment in October and December, consolidated EBITDA in Q4 would have been flat year-over-year. For the full year of 2024, the company delivered consolidated same-store results of $11.2 billion in net revenues and $3.7 billion in EBITDA, delivering an EBITDA margin of 33.2%. Moving to our segments and starting with Las Vegas. Same-store net revenues during Q4 were $1.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $478 million, down 1% versus last year. We were pleased with results in Las Vegas, especially when compared against the inaugural F1 race held in 2023. Margins in Las Vegas were 44.4% in line with expectations. Occupancy for the full quarter was 96%, down slightly compared to last year against F1 Comp. Our group business delivered another great performance representing 16% of occupied room nights, and recent investments in our Las Vegas room product and gaming offerings have delivered some of the strongest returns in our Las Vegas portfolio's history, driven by strong cash ADRs and increased gross gaming revenues. Turning to our regional segment in Q4, net revenues declined 1% and adjusted EBITDA declined 5% with improvement sequentially in the rate of EBITDA decline versus the second and third quarters in 2024. During the quarter, we finished a complete remodel of Caesars New Orleans on October 22nd and opened the permanent facility in Danville, Virginia on December 17th. Results in our regional segment were driven by continued competitive pressures in certain markets, offset partially by contributions from the two new facilities we opened later in the quarter, with both new properties exhibiting strong early results. We are excited to capture a full year of results from both New Orleans and Danville in 2025. 2024 was the conclusion of an intensive capital investment cycle that began at the close of merger in July of 2020. We completed several large CapEx projects that will have meaningful contributions in 2025 and beyond, and we are cycling through competitive pressures in our regional segment that are becoming less negative. Our investments in our property portfolio are evident and our properties have never looked better. We expect that the returns on our investments and continued strength in both brick-and-mortar properties and Caesars Digital will produce a dramatic increase in free cash flow in 2025 and 2026. Finally, I want to thank our team members for continuing to execute at the highest level and delivering on our commitment to exceptional family-style service. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Eric for some detail on our Caesars Digital segment.

Thanks, Anthony. 2024 delivered all-time records in net revenue, EBITDA, and cash flow within our digital segment. Total net revenue was $1.2 billion, up 20% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA was $117 million versus $38 million a year ago. For the quarter, we generated net revenue of $303 million and $20 million of adjusted EBITDA. Absent low hold in Q4, our digital segment would have generated approximately $370 million of net revenues and approximately $60 million worth of EBITDA. Turning to segment results, iGaming delivered exceptionally strong performance all year, culminating with 65% net revenue growth during Q4. Our iGaming franchise continues to deliver industry-leading net revenue growth driven by our improved product offerings within the Caesars Palace online app and our new Horseshoe app, which is now available in all the jurisdictions in which we operate. In January, we announced the launch of our first branded online Caesars Casino live dealer studio in Pennsylvania, and we plan to roll out similar branded studios in New Jersey and Michigan later in the first half. We also announced a partnership with Bragg Gaming to develop Caesar's Own slot and table content that will help differentiate our offering versus peers. Turning to sports betting during Q4, net revenue declined during the quarter as a result of customer-friendly outcomes in October and December. In addition, our overall volume declined slightly as we limited activity and reinvestment in unprofitable customer segments. Our parlay, SGP, and cash-out percentages achieved all-time records during the quarter, and absent the sports-friendly outcomes to customers, this would have resulted in a record hold percentage. The increases in these types of wagers, along with our improved customer user experience, support our belief that we will achieve in excess of 10% hold over time. As we look to 2025, we're excited to complete the rollout of our proprietary player account management system, which will lead to a single wallet across all of our sports jurisdictions. Continued improvements in technology, structural hold, and customer experience will drive another strong year of revenue and EBITDA growth in 2025 and keep us on track for our $500 million EBITDA goal. I'll now pass the call to Bret for some comments on the balance sheet.

Thanks, Eric. We had a productive fourth quarter utilizing non-core asset sale proceeds from WSOP and LINQ Promenade to repay $500 million in debt and repurchase additional stock. During calendar year 2024, we acquired 5.1 million shares for $190 million at an average price of $37 per share. Our 2024 debt refinancings have positioned the company to take advantage of a lower cost of debt, driving significant interest expense savings in 2025. We also extended our nearest maturity out to 2027. Over to Tom.

Thanks, Bret, and thank you everyone for being here. I'll provide some insights on the fourth quarter, discuss full-year 2025, and share our observations so far in the first quarter. As Anthony mentioned regarding the fourth quarter in Las Vegas, we were pleased with our performance compared to last year’s first F1 event. We maintained roughly flat results, with our volume indicators remaining stable. Room revenue for the quarter declined less than 1%, even without the F1 business. Food and beverage revenue also saw a minor decrease of less than 1%. In gaming, our indicators improved — notably, our slot coin-in reached an all-time record in Las Vegas, and table win was up year-over-year, aided slightly by a better hold. For Regional, remember there’s about $500 million of trailing EBITDA contributing to our $1.9 billion, while we face new competitive threats in those markets, with approximately $200 million of properties benefiting from tailwinds. In the fourth quarter, our year-over-year performance in Regional dropped about 5%, as previously discussed regarding headwinds and tailwinds. However, since the last call in October, we have been pleasantly surprised that the competitive impacts were not as severe as expected, and our newly opened properties have performed better than projected. I anticipate Regional to be flat on the lower end and slightly up on the higher end year-over-year in EBITDA. As Eric highlighted, digital has shown significant momentum; our iCasino revenue increased by 64% in the quarter, following a strong performance from Caesar's Palace online, which saw over 50% growth last year. We're stacking these positive quarters together. Although we faced unfavorable sports outcomes in the fourth quarter, our structural hold efforts are yielding positive results. The first quarter is off to a promising start, and I'll elaborate further as we proceed. Looking ahead to 2025, I mentioned expecting EBITDA in Regional to be flat to slightly up. Currently, we are tracking closely to last year. Keep in mind we lost a day due to the leap year last year, which might impact our performance slightly, making us either flat or down a couple million dollars. Our regional business is steadily improving, and we're engaging with newly opened properties. Typically, in the first quarter or two, we don’t spend heavily, but as customers experience our offerings, we'll be increasing our investments in competitive markets. I encourage you to review state revenue reports from Iowa and Indianapolis, which illustrate how we're competing for market share post-competitive openings. As we look at Regional moving forward, Virginia has exceeded our expectations in terms of performance. Usually, when you double gaming capacity, revenue does not keep pace, but Virginia has effectively doubled its revenue along with its capacity. While margins aren’t as robust as the over 60% we had at our peak, we are still achieving mid-40s in EBITDA margin, contributing to strong results. New Orleans had a remarkable Super Bowl and a solid fourth quarter, though January was challenging due to a terrorist event near our site and an unusual snowfall. We have almost four months of fluctuating performance in New Orleans, but we are proud of the property we’ve built. It has been well received by our top customers during events like the Taylor Swift show and the Super Bowl, despite the surrounding issues. We’re optimistic about the trajectory of both properties leading into 2025. In Las Vegas, regarding 2025, by the end of 2025, the only remaining significant competitive opening that we will face is PENN’s second move in the Chicago area. Most of the challenges that impacted us in 2024 will be behind us, with little else expected on the horizon. Therefore, I feel more positive about 2025. Looking further, 2026 should improve even more as competitive pressures lighten, and both New Orleans and Virginia continue to thrive after our investments. In Las Vegas, although we had the Super Bowl last year, our peers have noted challenges due to its absence this year. Last year, we were on the downside of our typical hold range, struggling at the tables in this quarter. Now, we are back within our normal range. While not exceptional, we are currently on the lower end of that range, but the recovery towards normal hold should balance out the loss of Super Bowl room revenue. Depending on March's performance, we may end up flat in the first quarter, which contrasts with what you may have heard elsewhere in town. Additionally, group business will see increases this year compared to last, with a notable rise expected in 2026 due to the citywide and the State Farm Conference, which is exclusive to Caesars. Digital has had an outstanding start this quarter. For January, iGaming revenue was up 64%, while last year it increased by 54%. February is tracking similarly, though with one less day, so I anticipate growth rate will approximate the 50s. Cash flow is on the rise, and we expect to report our best quarters soon. Our targets remain unchanged since we established them four years ago. As previously outlined, we aim to reach $500 million in EBITDA, and we're progressing well towards that goal. By the end of 2025, we expect some large partnership contracts to roll off in early 2026, after which we’ll be on track to meet our targets. Additionally, our capital expenses have decreased notably, with our total outflows for interest, lease, capital expenditures, and cash taxes in 2025 projected to be around $3 billion. This provides a basis for calculating our free cash flow. We began stock buybacks in 2024 and plan to use the majority of our free cash flow to reduce debt, aiming to further lower leverage since closing the transaction in July 2020. However, we are incorporating share buybacks into our strategy. Now, I’ll turn it back to the operator for Q&A.

Hey, guys, thank you for taking my question. Tom, Anthony, Brett, you guys. Tom, you just laid out kind of rough guidance for 2025 for both Vegas and the regionals. And obviously, if you look at Las Vegas in 2024 and you look at the regionals in 2024, I think regional labor expenses were down almost 1% year-over-year. Same-store, Las Vegas looks like it was up, but certainly not as much as some of the contract hit and stuff from the labor union negotiations. Within the context of how you're thinking about 2025, how do you kind of foresee the expense side for both Las Vegas and the regionals?

Yes, Carlo, Anthony and team did a fantastic job fading that $50 million increase this year; it's a smaller increase in the contract for 2025 in Las Vegas. There's also a smaller increase in Atlantic City union contract in 2025 as well. That coupled with our operators who do an amazing job on the efficiency side, I think we'll be in a very good position on expenses in 2025.

Keep in mind that there was an increase of 50 million in labor costs in Las Vegas. There were around a dozen or more food and beverage outlets and bars that opened in 2024 that were not available in 2023. This obviously led to increased expenses. However, Anthony, Sean, and the team did an excellent job managing costs while enhancing our offerings to customers.

Afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I do want to just double-click on the discussion about stock buybacks for the moment and how we think about that rolling forward and frankly, balancing it with leverage reduction along the way.

Sure. We have talked since the merger that we want to get our lease adjusted leverage toward four times, and that remains our number one priority. Where you have seen us start to buy back stock has been in asset sale transactions where we were trading assets out at significant premiums to our current trading multiple and current leverage multiple. You shouldn't expect to see us do any share buybacks that are leveraging and really nothing that's close to that. You should expect that if you're looking at something in the neighborhood of a billion dollars of free cash flow in 2025, the vast majority of that would go toward debt pay down.

Thanks for taking my question. So Tom, on Las Vegas, you guys gave some helpful stats on the convention calendar and strength you're seeing in those bookings. Wondering if you could look at the bigger picture for Las Vegas. I know you guys, you talked about 1Q, but for the full year, what are the puts and takes in terms of the 2Q through 4Q seeing growth in that market and EBITDA?

It's really going to be driven by increased yield out of our room product that's part of the building of group business or the increase in group business will replace lower-value business. We've got a number of projects that are coming online or have recently come online. We opened Gordon Ramsay's Burger and Pinky's at Flamingo, activating the Strip frontage at Flamingo for the first time since we've owned Caesars. We opened Caramella's at Planet Hollywood. There's a number of food and beverage products that have come online. We've still got returns from our hotel projects. We have an anniversary, the opening of the balcony rooms at Versailles. So we feel very good about what 2025 looks like.

We also just opened a beautiful new high-limit slot area at Caesar's Palace. The previous high-limit space hadn't been touched in about 25 years. The response has been tremendous out of that room. And in addition to that, we opened a new high-limit pit area that's adjacent to the high-limit slot. Again, that came out beautiful and has had great response from our customers in there as well.

Good afternoon, everyone. One more on the tax changes. I think we have a pretty good grasp on what happens when the sports betting tax rate increases just given that we've seen it before. So generally, and not related to New Jersey, but are the weathers to offset the tax increase the same for an IDM business compared to a sports betting business? Or is there anything in that IDM business model, do you think that will differ in terms of promos and marketing if adjusted?

The short answer is it's the same. The tax rate is part of your return calculation. Therefore, if the tax changes, the reinvestment rates will be affected from our perspective.

Hey, good afternoon everyone. Thanks for taking my question. First, taxes across both digital as well as brick-and-mortar have been very topical year-to-date. I was hoping maybe, Tom, if you could kind of just give us a lay of the land of the landscape from a regulatory standpoint and how you're thinking about that risk? And maybe kind of, I don't know, give some context this year versus prior years, if you feel like this is an increasing area of focus or just kind of the headline cycle we're in?

I believe we are currently experiencing a cycle focused on headlines. This cycle reflects the state of state budgets compared to previous years. It's clear that the news of the day captures attention. Looking back at the gaming industry, we can observe a variety of activities. Some states have raised sports betting taxes, while Illinois has permitted the placement of casinos or slot machines in numerous locations. Additionally, we have seen states legalize online casino gaming. Looking ahead three to five years, the most effective way to generate substantial revenue will be through the legalization of online casinos. I anticipate that new opportunities will arise, although there will also be challenges. For example, Maryland seems intent on increasing revenue from gaming through higher taxes, and we will adapt accordingly. However, I believe that states seeking additional tax revenue from our industry will likely lead to the establishment of more online casino jurisdictions in the future. We are successfully increasing our market share and revenue in this area at approximately double the rate of our competitors. When we acquired William Hill, we started with very limited operations and resources in this sector. Therefore, we are eager to explore what a new online gaming jurisdiction might offer us. While the current narrative focuses on increased taxes, historically, this has led to the expansion of gaming, which ultimately benefits us.

Got it. That's helpful context. And then just a follow-up on iGaming specifically. The hold really seems like it's picked up. I mean my math is right, it's probably around 4% in the fourth quarter. I mean, I guess what's been driving that? And if that level — is that sustainable? Can that move higher? And is it a function of customers or slot mix versus stable? Is there any additional detail you could share there would be great.

Yes, it has moved up. I'm not sure it's as high as you quoted; I think probably more around 3.5 or 3.6 for the fourth quarter. But certainly, our goal is to get the hold into the force. I don't think that's an impossibility at all. We're able to continually improve the product, working with the vendors on the slot side. As I mentioned, we also have our studio that's going to produce some products that will be of higher hold. And then we also have side bets and other activities that we're able to offer people on the table game side, including the live dealer with different gaming rules that will allow us to creep that hold up. But when you're talking about $11 billion or $12 billion or $14 billion worth of volume, modest hold increases really translate into significant gaming areas.

Got it. Thanks so much.

Yes, hey guys, good afternoon. So Tom, I want to go back to your comments about regionals now being flat to up slightly versus I think you said slightly down to flat. So just wondering if you could fill us in a little bit more about why you've kind of made that change? I know you gave a little bit of a comment in your prepared remarks. But while you've kind of made that change in your outlook for regionals given we're only two months into the year at this point? It seems like there's always something that pops up in terms of headwinds for regionals, weather or stuff like that. So just wondering if your new outlook for regionals maybe incorporates any of those potential headwinds to give yourself a little bit of a cushion here? Just I hope that makes sense.

Yes. Steve, as you know, I'm telling you what I know as I sit here today, and I know more than I did four months ago when we were back here before in terms of how our properties are going to respond to competition, how our efforts to claw back in battlegrounds is going to bear fruit and the returns that we're going to get from New Orleans and Virginia and line all those up. Every one of those is better in terms of where my thoughts were at the end of October when we released third quarter, so it's really a function of that. We had a poor weather quarter last year, first quarter, and the hope was that would be a boon for regional this year. And I think as Boyd told you, and we'd agree with weather really hasn't been any better, particularly this year's first quarter; it's been about the same, and yet we're still seeing that business perform better. And if you look at Consol Bluff and you look at Indianapolis, and see us starting to claw back in areas where we're now fighting for that customer after we've gone through the trial period, that bodes well for other markets that are in similar situations. So it's really just four months has elapsed. You learn a lot in four months, and a lot of assumptions that I was making in October have proven to be too conservative, and this is where I sit today.

Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. You mentioned attacking properties and battleground markets, which is great. Can you lay out the different metrics you look at to judge the team's success there?

Yes, we are examining several factors in each market. One important aspect is comparing the strength of our properties against our competitors. For instance, in Council Bluffs, we have two well-developed properties on the Iowa side that are seven minutes farther from Omaha than the tribal casinos that have opened there. However, those tribes faced funding issues, which prevented them from building properties that could compete directly with ours. Therefore, we plan to be very proactive in that market to attract visitors, as it's not a long journey, and we offer a superior product. In Indianapolis, we initially had the market to ourselves, but Fort Wayne has recently entered the scene. Nonetheless, Fort Wayne is smaller and less developed compared to our Indianapolis property. We will continue to target these markets where we believe we can make progress. It's essential to analyze county by county, assessing our investments and their effects on market share to determine if they are yielding results. We are already seeing positive outcomes in Indianapolis and Council Bluffs. However, some areas are more challenging, such as Hammond, where a competitor opened nearby amid the transition of Hard Rock to a better interstate location. This results in a locational disadvantage for us, especially as newer properties have emerged against an older one; that makes it trickier to operate aggressively. Our approach will involve evaluating how assertively we want to be in each county and what returns we expect. Our history shows that we are cautious about investing money that does not generate returns. Currently, we believe we have a clearer picture of our assets affected in 2024, and the initial outcomes make us optimistic about 2025.