Caesars Entertainment Inc (CZR) — Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Thank you, Shannon, and good afternoon to everyone on the call. Welcome to our conference call to discuss our third quarter 2025 earnings. This afternoon, we issued a press release announcing our financial results for the period ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is available in the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.caesars.com. As usual, joining me on the call today are Tom Reeg, our CEO; Anthony Carano, our President and Chief Operating Officer; Bret Yunker, our CFO; Eric Hession, President, Caesars Sports and Online; and Charise Crumbley, Investor Relations. Before I turn the call over to Anthony, I would like to remind you that during today's conference call, we may make certain forward-looking statements under safe harbor federal securities laws, and these statements may or may not come true. Also, during today's call, the company may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by SEC Regulation G. Please visit our press releases located on our Investor Relations website for a reconciliation of the differences between each non-GAAP financial measure and the comparable GAAP financial measure. Our Q3 investor presentation has been posted to our website, and our Form 10-Q has also been issued as well. We experienced hold volatility in our reported results. Management will discuss hold normalized results in our call today, and a full reconciliation can be found in our earnings presentation posted on our website on Slide 21. I will now turn the call over to Anthony.

Thank you, Brian, and good afternoon to everyone on the call. Our diversified portfolio delivered third quarter consolidated net revenues of $2.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $884 million. On a hold normalized basis, the company reported $927 million in consolidated EBITDA. During the third quarter, our Digital segment delivered strong volume growth in both sports and iCasino. Adjusted EBITDA in our Digital segment was negatively impacted by NFL hold in September and faced a difficult comparison to last year, which included WSOP results. Our Las Vegas segment posted solid results in the face of softer market-wide visitation and adjusted for poor table games hold. We are seeing sequential improvement in operating trends in Las Vegas as we enter the fourth quarter. Regional revenues were up year-over-year, driven by strong returns in Danville and New Orleans and same-store net revenue growth, resulting from continued strategic reinvestment in our Caesars Rewards customer database. Regional EBITDA grew 4% on a hold normalized basis during the quarter. Starting in our Las Vegas segment, we reported same-store adjusted EBITDA of $379 million and hold normalized EBITDA of $398 million. Segment results were driven by 92% occupancy versus 97% last year and ADR decreased 5% as a result of citywide visitation weakness during the quarter. As we progress through the quarter, trends improved sequentially with September delivering the strongest results of the quarter. During the quarter, the group room night mix was 13%, and the segment is on track to deliver a record EBITDA year in 2025 due to our strong Q4 booking pace, where group mix should increase to 17%. Recent CapEx investments at the Flamingo in Las Vegas, including a brand-new pool experience, Pinky's by Lisa Vanderpump, Gordon Ramsay Burger and Havana 57 continue to exceed return expectations. We are excited about upcoming CapEx projects in Las Vegas, including a new Omnia Day Club by Tao at Caesars Palace, the rebrand of the Cromwell to the Vanderpump Hotel and the recently announced Project 10 by Luke Combs that will transform the vacant Margaritaville space at the Flamingo. These exciting projects continue our commitment to reinvest in our assets while elevating our guest experiences. As we look to the fourth quarter in Las Vegas, we see trends improving sequentially, driven by positive leisure trends and a strong group and convention calendar. In our regional segment, we reported adjusted EBITDA of $506 million and hold normalized EBITDA of $517 million, driven by 6% net revenue growth. Early results from our strategic customer reinvestments are promising, driven by strong rated play trends in the quarter. We will continue to refine our marketing approach as we remain focused on delivering strong returns on these investments. Margins improved sequentially this quarter, driven by better flow-through on these investments. New projects in Danville and New Orleans continue to generate strong returns, and we look forward to completing Phase 2 of the master plan currently underway at Caesars Republic Lake Tahoe in mid-2026. I want to thank all of our team members for their hard work through the first three quarters of 2025. Their dedication to exceptional guest service has been the driving force behind our accomplishments this year. With that, I will now turn the call over to Eric for some insights into the third quarter for our Digital segment.

Thanks, Anthony. During the third quarter, Caesars Digital delivered net revenue of $311 million, adjusted EBITDA of $28 million and hold normalized adjusted EBITDA of $40 million. Recall that last year, in Q3 2024, we benefited from approximately $8 million of net revenue and EBITDA contribution from the World Series of Poker. The World Series of Poker was sold in Q3 of last year, and so now we fully annualize the impact of the sale on our EBITDA comparisons. In addition to the effect of the poor hold and the loss of the World Series of Poker revenues impact on flow-through, we had a number of other headwinds this quarter that included incremental state taxes, higher acquisition marketing spend and some bad debt. As we previously noted, there will be volatility across quarters, but we're on track to exceed our 50% target flow-through for the year. Our core KPIs remained strong during the quarter. Specifically in sports, total parlay mix improved approximately 210 basis points year-over-year, and we saw growth in average legs per parlay and a higher cash out mix versus the prior year period. In addition, we realized volume growth of 6%, a notable sequential improvement, which was unfortunately more than offset by the negative sports outcomes our industry experienced in September. In iCasino, we delivered 29% net revenue growth, driven by continued strength in volume and average monthly active users. We continue to evaluate or elevate our product offering during the two quarters to include new in-house games, improved bonusing capabilities and elevated live dealer product. We look forward to a redesigned Horseshoe Online casino update in Q4. Overall, in Q3, our total monthly unique payers increased 15% to 460,000. From a tech perspective, we continue to convert new jurisdictions to our universal digital wallet and proprietary player account management system, which is now live in 22 states. The enhancement gives our customers a significant upgrade to their wagering experience. Pending regulatory approval, we plan for the Missouri State sports betting launch in December of this year to be the first state where we offer a shared wallet experience to our customers from day one. We continue to expect a complete rollout of our universal wallet product on our proprietary TAM by early 2026. As we head into Q4 and 2026, I'm pleased with the significant progress on the technology side of the business that's driving strong volumes in both sports and iCasino. The continued progress in all areas is showing up in our top line results, and our focus on spending efficiency will drive solid flow-through to EBITDA. We continue to see a business capable of driving 20% top line growth with 50% flow-through to EBITDA, which keeps us on track to achieve our long-term goals. I'll now pass the call over to Bret for comments on the balance sheet.

Thanks, Eric. In addition to redeeming $546 million of senior notes during the quarter, we repurchased $100 million of stock, including October activity. We've now repurchased close to $400 million of stock since mid-2024, shrinking our share base by 6%. Our balance sheet remains in great shape with our nearest maturity in 2028 and a floating rate debt mix that will continue to benefit from interest rate cuts. Our weighted average cost of debt currently sits at just over 6%. We expect to continue using our strong and growing free cash flow to both reduce debt and opportunistically repurchase stock. Turning it over to Tom.

Thanks, Bret. To provide more detail, we mentioned in our last call that Las Vegas would experience a soft summer, and it indeed turned out soft. Our average daily rate declined by just over 6%, and occupancy dropped by about 5 percentage points, equaling around 90,000 fewer room nights, which affects all non-gaming aspects of our business. However, on the gaming side, our volume held relatively steady, with slot handle decreasing by only 2% despite the drop in room nights. Although I usually try to avoid the topic of hold, it's important to address it this quarter as it fell by nearly 600 basis points in Las Vegas, leading to an impact of just over $30 million year-over-year. Additionally, there were over $10 million in one-time benefits from last year that we won't see again, the most significant being the cancellation of the sponsorship contract for the Planet Hollywood Live theater. The quarter improved progressively, with July being the lowest point, followed by better performance in August and September. As we anticipated at the start of the quarter, we expect a recovery in the fourth quarter, and we are observing signs of that. Our revenue from room bookings is slightly down, with cash room revenues in the third quarter declining by a little over 11%, which shows considerable improvement. This is largely due to group bookings, including some specific to Caesars, rather than across the entire market. The Oracle conference moved from Q3 last year to early October this year, and we also have BravoCon coming up later this quarter. Our Formula 1 event is looking much better than last year, although not as strong as in its inaugural year, but it is an improvement from last year. A challenge we face for the rest of the year is that New Year's Eve falls in the middle of the week, which is not ideal. Nevertheless, we see a strong rebound for Las Vegas. As we've stated previously, we expect a soft summer with recovery in the fourth quarter and continued improvement in the first quarter. Group bookings should reach a record in 2025 compared to 2024, mainly driven by strength in the fourth quarter. Moreover, the first quarter of 2026 is expected to set a new all-time record, contributing to strong performance in 2025, particularly in the first quarter. Summer was challenging, and we saw a decline in leisure demand, especially for properties that are more price-sensitive or located further from the center of the Strip, whereas premium offerings fared better. The return of group business in the fourth and first quarters will reduce rate compression, leading to a healthier market outlook for this quarter and into 2026. With regards to regional operations, we previously mentioned that we initiated increased marketing investments at impacted properties and will expand successful strategies as we assess their effectiveness. Over time, you will notice refinements in our approach as we eliminate what isn’t working and enhance what is effective across more markets. Regional flow-through from marketing is improving, and we expect this trend to continue, with solid demand in that segment. We have no complaints in regional operations. In digital, while we've had much discussion about sports outcomes, we’re pleased with our progress. Our iGaming segment is performing well, and we remain focused on achieving our goals for digital. As for free cash flow, we plan to maintain a balanced approach between debt repayment and stock repurchases. Given the current levels, our stock looks attractive, and we anticipate being active in this regard for the remainder of the year. Now, I’ll open the floor to questions.

So Tom and team, I want to start with Las Vegas. And I want to just sort of dig into some of the comments that you made, Tom, specifically around leisure demand. And I heard positive leisure recovery, but I also heard that the group fill-in is most of the sequential improvement that you are looking for or seeing into the fourth quarter. And so maybe you could highlight some other metrics in terms of how we should think about the sort of very near-term sequential leisure recovery, whether that's bookings four weeks out, occupancy, et cetera, or anything else that might be helpful there?

Yes. When we spoke last quarter, we observed the same forward booking calendar. At that time, it seemed particularly weak, which is why we anticipated a soft summer. Now, with adjustments for hold, the performance aligns with our expectations. As we consider the current quarter, being the third quarter, it is primarily focused on leisure, and there is typically less group business in Vegas during the hot weather compared to other quarters. The leisure market continued to improve throughout the quarter. July was the lowest point, then August showed growth, and that trend has carried into September and October. However, the leisure market remains weaker compared to the previous year. The key factor is that increased group activity helps us manage rates more effectively than in the third quarter, and there's significantly less deviation in occupied rooms. We recorded 90,000 occupied rooms in the third quarter, which represents about 500 basis points in occupancy. Overall, our occupancy and rate metrics are more favorable now than they were in the third quarter.

Great. Moving on to regionals, you reported a hold adjusted regional number that showed growth. You mentioned last quarter that you were increasing promotions and possibly rolling them out to less impacted markets. It seems like either those efforts have not yet begun or they are yielding good returns. My question is whether this is the kind of flow-through we can expect from the program, regardless of whether the markets are supply impacted or not, as you continue to develop these new programs.

Yes, Brandt, that's a great question. As we move through the quarters, we anticipate improving efficiency in our marketing efforts by reducing what isn't working and amplifying what is. I want to clarify that we are not entering a promotional war, a concern I’ve heard from several investors. In all our markets, Caesars Rewards stands out as the most effective customer program compared to any competitor. Additionally, in many of our markets, we have properties that offer superior experiences. This gives us a strategic advantage, allowing us to be less generous with giveaways while still performing well. However, the gap between our approach and others' became larger than necessary in some properties that weren't significantly impacted by competition. Therefore, our strategy is focused on addressing that gap without engaging in a promotional war. We haven’t observed a strong competitive response that indicates this trend will escalate. Going forward, I expect to see continued improvement in how revenue growth translates to performance, similar to what we experienced this quarter.

I just wanted to go back to Vegas and that leisure customer. I mean it sounds like things are getting a little bit better. Just group is obviously helping in terms of compression. But I mean, how do you kind of look to stimulate that leisure customer? Do you think that there are structural issues in Las Vegas that need to be addressed in terms of pricing? And then it sounds like in terms of fourth quarter, things have gotten better. So I don't know if there's any way to kind of frame kind of that bouncing off of third quarter in terms of some kind of broad estimates.

Yes. Regarding pricing, we adjust the prices of numerous items in Las Vegas daily, from rooms to restaurants and ATM fees. There are certainly areas in our business that may have seen pricing issues. However, it is important to note that during this quarter, while we discuss pricing and its effects on demand, our occupancy rate exceeded 90% and continues to strengthen as we head into the fourth quarter. Notably, despite concerns, on many days you could find rooms in Vegas for $29 plus a resort fee on the strip. Vegas offers options for everyone, as highlighted by our Regional President Sean McBurney. For example, you can see Paul McCartney for $500 a ticket or catch Donny Osmond for just $60 on the same weekend. This range of price points is evident. Even amid a quarter that was softer than last year, we are pleased to see improvement as we enter the fourth quarter. A small shift of just 5 percentage points in occupancy can lead to a marked decline in adjusted EBITDA, but similarly, recovery can happen quickly. In the third quarter, we achieved about $400 million in adjusted EBITDA, a substantial increase from the $300 million to $320 million typically seen in this quarter before our merger. The market remains robust, offering value compared to nearly any travel destination. While we adjust thousands of prices daily, it's easy to highlight specific instances of higher costs, like the price of a bottle of water, but the overall value in Vegas is significant. The range of activities and offerings here is unmatched by any other city, and we are optimistic about Vegas’s prospects moving forward. We anticipate that soon we will reflect on the summer and remember the discussions around expensive bottled water, which was not the primary driver of activity.

Right. Okay. No, that's really helpful detail. Just pivoting to regionals, this is more of a high-level one. But obviously, in terms of that more promotional strategy, and I get it's kind of more short-term oriented. But how did you kind of think through that versus maybe the puts and takes of putting more capital into the ground at some of these properties to improve the amenities if there would have been a return on that as opposed to just being more promotional?

Yes. Since the merger, we have invested $3.1 billion in our regional assets, with $2.8 billion going into 16 properties that account for 75% of our regional EBITDA. The smaller properties, which may not have hotels, have received less investment. Over the past five years, we have outpaced our peers in regional capital investment. Now, we need to leverage those investments to encourage people to visit these properties. Customers might not be aware of the improvements unless we actively promote visits to them. For instance, in New Orleans, we’ve seen organic momentum as we attract customers who notice the changes. We’ve made significant investments and want to convey the message to come and see what we’ve done. We are seeing positive follow-through from this approach. It’s important to note that these outcomes don’t materialize in short timeframes, but we are encouraged by the trends indicating that our efforts are effective and generating increased cash flow, which is our primary objective.

Shannon, for Q&A, we've got a lot of people in the queue. Can we just have everybody ask one question and then circle back if possible?

Just wanted to ask on the regional performance. From the state level data, it looked like trends deceled a little bit in September from July and August levels. Did you see that in your business? And then how do you think about the fourth quarter from a comps perspective for regionals given we saw an acceleration in the data starting October of last year?

So regarding September, remember that last year, Labor Day Sunday fell in September, whereas this year it was in August. This marks a significant change in the calendar as that weekend is crucial for summer. Therefore, I suggest looking at the numbers for August and September together. The only area that experienced a notable demand shift in September was Atlantic City, while the other markets performed as expected. On the cost side, I don’t have specific details to mention for the regions. As we refine our marketing strategies going forward, you can anticipate an increase in flow-through and margins.

I guess big picture, longer term or for next year, specifically for Vegas, it's a lot of moving pieces. You've got the capital investments you mentioned, some good guys from conferences, but also maybe one or two conferences leaving the system, macro TBD. High level, I know it's early, but just curious how you're thinking about how those kind of puts and takes play out to Vegas next year.

Yes. The big question is the consumer. Will this leisure demand continue to improve and recover, or will we plateau at a level below where we were before? That’s a tough question to answer. I believe the mix will improve for us, especially considering we have the State Farm conference early in the second quarter, which is a major event that contributes significantly to our EBITDA. There are also broader market factors at play. However, we are now four months into a decline in leisure demand for Vegas. While we are in a better position than we were in July, we are still not at the level we were a year ago. So, in my opinion, the key question for 2026 will be how quickly that recovery happens.

I just wanted to double back on digital, if I may, for the fourth quarter. I know that the sequential cadence can be tricky where there is some preseason spending in T3. I recall a comment, Tom, that indicated the fourth quarter should be super strong. We're still focused on kind of that run rate of $500 million by the fourth quarter. If you could just update us there, please?

Yes. The main factor influencing this is game outcomes. We had a third quarter that wasn't great. We're four weekends into the fourth quarter, and those outcomes haven't improved significantly. Our hold for the first four weekends was better than last year but below our projected hold, which will affect our fourth quarter results. As you've seen, sports outcomes can be quite unpredictable. Therefore, I wouldn’t consider the results from four weekends, whether positive or negative, as conclusive at this point, but that's where we stand today.

Maybe, Eric, I wanted to circle back to your prepared remarks. I think you were kind of dissecting the quarter a little bit and had mentioned, if I heard correctly, some higher acquisition marketing spend in the quarter. If I heard that correctly, I'm wondering if you could elaborate a little bit. Was that kind of expected or unexpected? And was that more customers than you thought getting on board? Just curious if you could give us a little bit more color there.

Sure. It wasn't entirely unexpected. As we progressed through the quarter, we gradually increased our spending in anticipation of football season and a robust acquisition period for the iCasino segment. This led to acquiring significantly more customers during that time. We believe that the investment will yield results in the long run with the lifetime values of those customers. However, in the short term, this spending appears as a drawback. Therefore, due to the year-over-year increase in our expenditures, I wanted to highlight that as one of the factors that affected our flow-through in the quarter.

So Tom, I want to go back to the regional reinvestment and ask that question maybe a little bit differently. But it's one of the questions we get a lot from investors is the fact that when you were at Eldorado and you were out buying things like Isle of Capri, I mean, you were kind of known as the kind of the king of cutting promotions and basically getting your peers to kind of do the same thing and understand that was kind of a smart business decision. Now you're somewhat kind of pivoting away from that, and you mentioned a lot of that decision is tied to Total Rewards and the power of that platform. So I know you said that hasn't started a promotional war yet, but just trying to get a little more color as to what gives you the confidence that, that doesn't eventually happen.

We can analyze customer behavior at a detailed level to understand their responses. My point is that in most markets, there is a noticeable difference between our spending and that of our competitors, with us spending less. This difference may have become too pronounced over time. What you’re witnessing now is a recovery, not a competitive escalation. When we adjust our approach, customers notice the efforts we make to earn their business. The reasons they initially chose our services and participated in the rewards program help retain their loyalty when they return. This situation is continuously evolving, as competition is ongoing in these markets. I believe our overall discipline in managing the business has improved significantly since we initiated this strategy, and there's nothing that indicates the need for further increases in spending. You should start to see the positive impact in our financial results over the coming quarters, with improvement in this quarter compared to the last, and I expect that trend to continue.

Some of your competitors are looking at the predictive markets. What's your view there for Caesars Digital? And have you seen any impact as these markets are starting to make inroads into sports?

Yes. To address your second question first, we haven't noticed any impact so far. I believe most of the volume generated is coming from states where sports betting is not legalized. There may also be some marginal volume from legalized states that we might not have reach to, such as customers aged 18 to 21. Regarding our overall strategy, we are closely monitoring the situation. As we've mentioned before, we can't take the lead on this matter. We will keep an eye on it to ensure we are not left out if there is regulatory clarity, and we will be prepared should that occur. For now, given the uncertainty and the letters from regulatory agencies, our best approach is to keep monitoring, establish our plans, ensure we are adequately resourced, and be ready to act if there is a change in the legalization status.

Yes. We will not jeopardize any of our licenses. We believe that what is occurring in prediction markets resembles sports gambling. If a feasible path emerges that allows us to engage without risking our licenses, we would be prepared to pursue it, and we are monitoring the situation as you are.

Tom or Eric, could you share your insights on the seasonality of the digital segment as we approach Q4, which is a peak sports season? While you mentioned some headwinds, I’m interested in how you expect the trends to develop more generally. Additionally, Eric, with the increased focus on marketing during this period, what are your thoughts on customer acquisition as we head into next year, particularly with the digital wallet now operational and your confidence in the product?

Let me address the seasonality question. The fourth quarter is typically our highest volume period due to football season, which significantly influences sports betting. We recognize that the expenses related to our partnerships are incurred during the active season. For instance, many of our significant contracts that will expire in '26 incur most of their costs in the fourth quarter. This creates more volatility, as the outcomes of sports betting become more significant due to the larger fixed costs we're facing compared to other quarters. Now, I'll let Eric continue from here.

Yes. I expect the marketing spend to return to normal levels for Q4 compared to the previous year. There won't be any additional acquisition spending in the same way we had been trending before. However, with the app performing well and the shared wallet being active in almost every state, we have the chance to increase some top-of-funnel advertising due to improved retention rates and better customer responses to the app. I view this mainly as a shift rather than an extra expenditure, but we will assess it as we proceed. If we see quick returns on certain expenditures, we might slightly increase them, but I don't foresee anything significant next year.

Shaun, that's similar to what I just talked about in regionals. Our big brand campaign in 2021 coincided with the launch of sports betting, and at that time, our app was not as competitive as it needed to be compared to our peers. We've made significant improvements to get the app up to standard. As you mentioned, we need to give our customers a reason to reconsider our offerings. This aligns with what Eric is referring to in terms of the top of funnel.

Two quick follow-ups on digital. Just given you've seen a lot of moving parts in the regulatory environment across brick-and-mortar and digital, what do you see as the key milestones you're watching for to get comfort on the prediction markets? Is it really just waiting until we get maybe all the way to the Supreme Court? Are there other things that could happen between now and then? And then given the outsized wins on behalf of consumers, are you seeing any change in how much money is being kept in accounts that might be indicative of future wagers or strength further into the football season?

I'll start with the first question and let Eric address the second. I hope we can gain some clarity and certainty about prediction markets soon. It appears the direction this will take will ultimately be determined at the court level, specifically the Supreme Court. I anticipate there will be rulings in both directions throughout this process. If a case is escalated to the Supreme Court, there’s a broader question involving state rights versus federal rights that could expedite the court's involvement. However, there is also the possibility that with numerous cases heading to the Supreme Court, this may be delayed longer than we'd prefer. I expect we will remain in a period of uncertainty for quite a while.

In response to the second part of your question, after customers have a good weekend, we notice that balances tend to increase. However, this trend doesn't last for a long time as customers usually either reduce their balances or use them throughout the week and into the next weekend. There appears to be a loose correlation between customer outcomes and volume, as expected when the hold decreases. Nonetheless, I would like to emphasize that while customer outcomes in Q3 were favorable, our core volume growth remained significantly stronger than in previous periods. So, the overall results were not solely dependent on customer outcomes.

During the quarter, I know the city ran a few ad campaigns. I'm not sure if that stimulated demand. I wanted to ask about that. Additionally, do you think this is something we might continue to see throughout 2026 to improve the perception of value for some customers who have disengaged?

Yes to both, Chad. So we participated in the sale that you're referring to. Our bookings picked up considerably during that sale. So it was effective. And we know that LVCVA intends this to be an ongoing campaign. So you should expect this not to be one shot in terms of the messaging around value in Las Vegas.

There's been some movement in the M&A market. As you think about your leverage and your footprint in Las Vegas, I just want to check your temperature around potential asset sales in Las Vegas and then also how you think about the Caesars Forum put call agreement outstanding.

The call option for the put call option should be expected to be exercised by VICI toward the end of the period. However, I don't want to speak on their behalf. We choose the rent, and we would opt for the lowest rent available. Regarding mergers and acquisitions, we are always open to discussions on any asset that makes sense for us, but we are not currently marketing the Vegas asset.

We've seen some OpEx pressure this quarter and last. And as you start budgeting for next year, are there certain expenses outside maybe the marketing that we've hit on that you all are going to spend more time thinking about for 2026?

I mean labor is always our biggest, and we're constantly looking to optimize labor across the enterprise. We're well into the union contracts in both Vegas and Atlantic City. So you're kind of at manageable increases as we move forward. There's nothing that stands out as you asked that question to me.

But if you're looking at labor in the 10-Q, specifically in the regional segment, that's not exactly same-store because you've got Danville and New Orleans in there, and there were some one-time benefits in the prior year quarter. So it's not really a same-store number if you're looking at that labor line in the Q.

Yes. Danville and New Orleans are both significant integrated resorts. Danville was not open, and New Orleans was considerably smaller last year.

Thanks, everybody. We'll see you next time.