Exelon Corp
Exelon is a Fortune 200 company and one of the nation's largest utility companies, serving more than 10.7 million customers through six fully regulated transmission and distribution utilities - Atlantic City Electric, BGE, ComEd, Delmarva Power, PECO, and Pepco. Exelon's 20,000 employees dedicate their time and expertise to supporting our communities through reliable, affordable and efficient energy delivery, workforce development, equity, economic development and volunteerism. Source: Lendistry
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21.9% overvaluedExelon Corp (EXC) — Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
AI Call Summary AI-generated
The 30-second take
Exelon reported stronger-than-expected earnings for the quarter, driven by mild weather and good cost management. The company is focused on connecting a huge wave of new large power customers, like data centers, while also advocating for states to take more control over ensuring future power supply is reliable and affordable. This growth in demand is setting the stage for significant future investment in the grid.
Key numbers mentioned
- Q3 2025 earnings per share of $0.86
- 2025 operating earnings guidance of $2.64 to $2.74 per share
- Large load pipeline of over 19 gigawatts (high probability) and at least 27 gigawatts in active studies
- Rate base growth of 7.4% through 2028
- Pepco Maryland rate case request for a net revenue increase of $133 million
- Annualized operating earnings growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2028
What management is worried about
- There is a significant anticipated shortfall in power supply, and hoping that markets alone will fill it puts too much risk on customers.
- The disclosed capacity levels for new energy supply in Maryland have fallen short of the state's target.
- Customers have voiced very strongly that they're frustrated with high energy costs.
What management is excited about
- The company's utilities are now ranked 1, 2, 4, and 7 for reliability among their peers, improving from last year.
- Illinois passed the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act, which supports resource adequacy and sets a goal of 3 gigawatts of storage by 2030.
- The innovative Transmission Security Agreement (TSA) approach ensures the right balance in prioritizing large loads while protecting existing customers.
- The demand for power is not slowing down, with a large load pipeline now standing at over 19 gigawatts.
Analyst questions that hit hardest
- Shahriar Pourreza (Wells Fargo) - Competing resource adequacy solutions in Maryland: Management responded by commending the state's process but emphasized that the proposals fell short of what's needed and reiterated their willingness to step up with utility-owned solutions.
- Nicholas Campanella (Barclays) - Timeline and outlook for the Atlantic City Electric rate case: Management gave an unusually detailed account of the lengthy settlement process, crediting ongoing transparency with regulators but noting the case's interim rate status keeps settlement talks alive.
- Jeremy Tonet (JPMorgan) - Opportunities to lift growth outlooks amid peer increases: Management responded defensively, stating they prioritize "certain and reliable" elements in their plans and will only update guidance once they have clarity on pending transmission proposals.
The quote that matters
There is a significant anticipated shortfall in supply, and hoping that markets alone will fill it puts too much risk on customers.
Calvin Butler — President and CEO
Sentiment vs. last quarter
Omitted as no previous quarter context was provided.
Original transcript
Operator
Hello, and welcome to Exelon's Third Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Gigi, and I'll be your event specialist today. Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Andrew Plenge, Vice President of Investor Relations. The floor is yours.
Thank you, Gigi, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our 2025 third quarter earnings call. Leading the call today are Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeanne Jones, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. Other members of Exelon's senior management team are also with us today, and they will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. Today's presentation, along with our earnings release and other financial information can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. We would also like to remind you that today's presentation and the associated earnings release materials contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. You can find the cautionary statements on these risks on Slide 2 of today's presentation or in our SEC filings. In addition, today's presentation includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations between these measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of our presentation and in our earnings release. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and CEO.
Thank you, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. We are happy to have you with us today for our third quarter earnings call. As we reach the last months of 2025, the 25th year since Exelon's founding, our employees continue to execute with excellence, serving our customers, communities, and shareholders. We reported earnings of $0.86, which was stronger than anticipated due to slightly warmer weather and a mild storm season, along with timing-related drivers. We continue to reaffirm our operating earnings guidance for 2025 of $2.64 to $2.74 per share, and we look forward to closing out the year strong. We also continue to deliver some of the best operational performance in the industry. In fact, we now have the final results of our reliability benchmarking for last year, and our four utility operating companies are ranked 1, 2, 4, and 7 out of our peer set, improving upon last year's already stellar 1, 3, 5, and 8 rankings. I could not be prouder of the way our employees show up every day, whether it's selecting, planning, and operationalizing the right investments to avoid outages or being the fastest to get customers back online if the power does go out. This performance has real value, particularly when you consider that a typical major storm can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars for the average customer, depending on its size. Our operational North Star is to continuously improve upon this performance, offering above-average performance at below-average rates to the communities we have the privilege and honor of serving. Results like that show we're living up to that standard. As it pertains to rate cases, we remain on track for our gas distribution rate case at Delmarva Power and our Atlantic City Electric rate case. We also filed a rate case at Pepco, Maryland with a decision required per statute by August of 2026. The filing supports the company's commitment to delivering safe, reliable, and resilient service while further preparing the local grid for future clean energy demands. Our filing also demonstrates true focus on customer value, reflecting strong O&M cost containment and robust projected benefits from specified reliability investments that significantly exceed their cost. Outside of rate cases, we have seen more progress in our states and at PJM when it comes to advancing solutions to meet the growing need for reliable and resilient power. Last week, Illinois passed the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act, which directly supports resource adequacy by expanding the annual budget for energy efficiency, broadening the types of assets eligible for the distributed generation rebate, and creating an energy storage procurement plan. It also requires the commission and other state agencies to develop four-year integrated resource plans and gives the ICC discretion to facilitate transmission projects that support state goals. This marks the next chapter in Illinois energy transition, and we look forward to working with policymakers on implementing this next set of programs. In Maryland, the commission initiated a request for merchant generator proposals for up to 3 gigawatts of new energy supply. The process attracted several submissions, though the disclosed capacity levels have fallen short of their target, and we will learn in December which of those projects the Maryland Department of Natural Resource Power Plant Research program might recommend. And PJM is working through its Critical Issue Fast Path process for options to better accommodate new large loads, assisting our states as they navigate unprecedented levels of growth. We are encouraged by the breadth and amount of engagement in that process, and we look forward to finding solutions that ensure customers can rely on cost-effective power supply. And as we have stated, these efforts are welcomed and necessary, but they are not enough. There is a significant anticipated shortfall in supply, and hoping that markets alone will fill it puts too much risk on customers who increasingly depend on affordable power to power their lives. All states need to leverage all available options to bring control, certainty, and customer benefits to securing power. These options help ensure that all customers continue to have reliable access to energy and that the states can participate more fully in the economic development opportunities from artificial intelligence and onshoring. The supply challenge is real, and we know utilities can be a key partner in helping the state solve it, whether it's supporting investments in demand-side solutions like energy efficiency, distributed and community solar and storage, or even owning more traditional generation plants. We stand ready to work with our states as they seek opportunities to address growing energy security needs in a manner that fits their goals. The demand for power is not slowing down. Our large load pipeline now stands at over 19 gigawatts as we have finalized our cluster study approach and now account for our first transmission security agreement at PECO. The innovative TSA approach ensures we strike the right balance in prioritizing large loads while ensuring our existing customers are protected. Furthermore, we now have at least 27 gigawatts either waiting for signed TSAs or in active cluster studies with many more behind those. Additional details on our large load outlook can be found in the appendix. Connecting new businesses is expected to be just one of the drivers of the anticipated growth in transmission investment in our next four-year plan. This new business will also drive broader needs for the grid, which get identified in reliability assessments like PJM's open windows, and it helps drive inter-RTO opportunities like the MISO Tranche 2.1 segment running through ComEd's territory. We will be monitoring the recommendations coming out of PJM's latest open window over the next three months to determine if any of the solutions we have proposed either individually or with partners are selected. With no project greater than 3% of our four-year plan, we are focused on bringing all of our customers along at the appropriate pace while also ensuring we can earn a fair return of 9% to 10% on the equity capital provided by our investors. With rate base growth of 7.4% through 2028 and a balanced financing plan, we expect to grow our earnings at an annualized rate of 5% to 7% with the expectation of always delivering at the midpoint or better of that range. I will now ask Jeanne to cover more details on our regulatory updates and financial performance. Jeanne?
Thank you, Calvin, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover our third quarter financial update, along with our financial and regulatory outlook for the remainder of 2025. Starting on Slide 5, we present our quarter-over-quarter adjusted operating earnings walk. Exelon earned $0.86 per share in the third quarter compared to $0.71 per share in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting higher results of $0.15 over the same period. Earnings are higher in the third quarter relative to the same period last year, driven primarily by $0.12 of higher distribution and transmission rates, net of associated depreciation, and $0.06 associated with the ability to seek deferral treatment of the PECO extraordinary storms earlier this year and favorable storm conditions at BGE. This favorability is slightly offset primarily by interest expense. These results are ahead of the expectations noted in our prior quarter call, primarily due to better-than-normal storm conditions, timing of O&M spend, and tax timing at PECO. As we close out the year in the fourth quarter, we remain on track to achieve operating earnings of $2.64 to $2.74 per share with the goal of delivering at midpoint or better. Our fourth quarter guidance assumes a reversal of timing, including O&M, distribution earnings at ComEd, and PECO taxes; fair and reasonable outcomes for open rate case proceedings, including reconciliations at BGE, Pepco, Maryland, and ComEd; and normal weather and storm activity. Finally, we reaffirm our annualized operating earnings growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2028 with the expectation to be at the midpoint or better of that range. Turning to Slide 6. I will now review the regulatory activity across our platform. Starting with the base rate case activity, we continue to make progress on the Delmarva Power gas distribution rate case filed last September, with the final settlement conferences held in October. As a reminder, the filing seeks to recover reliability investments such as aging pipe replacements, and it also seeks recovery of LNG plant upgrades, which would protect customers from price volatility during peak periods. We anticipate an order in the first quarter of 2026. At Atlantic City Electric, settlement discussions continue as we seek recovery for grid improvements and modernization investments in line with New Jersey's Energy Master Plan and the Clean Energy Act. We continue to anticipate an order by the end of the year. Finally, on October 14, Pepco filed an electric base rate case in Maryland, requesting a net revenue increase of $133 million, utilizing a fully forecasted test year. The request supports key infrastructure investments to modernize aging infrastructure and improve reliability while also supporting Maryland's clean energy goals. As part of the filing, Pepco through an independent firm found that $38 million of investments generate nearly $262 million in benefits to customers through avoided outage and restoration costs, as well as avoided O&M expenses over the next 20 years. The filing also offers a suite of programs and resources that help manage rising energy costs, increase awareness of energy usage, and provide direct assistance to those who need it most. Per statute, an order is expected from the Maryland Public Service Commission in August of 2026. Beyond base rate cases at ComEd, we remain on track for our first reconciliation under the new multiyear plan framework, where we continue to robustly support the spend submitted for reconciliation throughout the final briefing process. An ALJ-proposed order is expected later today, and the ICC will issue a final order by December 20. In Maryland, we continue to await decisions on our final reconciliations from the first PGE and Pepco Maryland multiyear plans, along with the commission's order on the lessons learned proceeding to support future filings. We look forward to moving forward with an approach that best aligns stakeholders' interest in balancing affordability, reliability, and the state's economic development and energy policy goals. Finally, turning to Slide 7. I will conclude with updates on our balance sheet activity, where we've continued to derisk our financing plan and ensure cost-effective capital to invest for the benefit of our customers. In September, PECO issued $1 billion in debt, completing all of our planned long-term debt issuances for the year. The strong investor demand and attractive pricing we've achieved in our debt offerings is supported by the strength of our balance sheet and by the low-risk attributes of our platform. We continue to seek opportunities to take advantage of current market dynamics to derisk our plan. This includes utilizing our pre-issuance hedging strategy and pricing future equity needs to settle through forward agreements under the ATM, reducing interest rate and share price exposure. Through the third quarter, we have priced nearly half of our equity needs through 2028, including all of our annualized equity needs in 2025 and $663 million or 95% of our 2026 annualized equity needs, which we expect to settle next year. In line with our last earnings call, we continue to project 100 to 200 basis points of financial flexibility on average over the Moody's downgrade threshold of 12%, approaching 14% at the end of our guidance period. We also continue to advocate for language that incorporates all tax repairs for calculating the corporate alternative minimum tax. As a reminder, favorably addressing all repairs in the minimum tax calculation will result in an increase of approximately 50 basis points in our consolidated credit metrics on average over the plan. Thank you, and I'll now turn the call back to Calvin for his closing remarks.
Thank you, Jeanne. As we approach the end of our 25th year as Exelon, we are working to add to our legacy of excellence, delivering on our commitments to our customers, our communities, and our investors. Many of you may have seen us ring the opening bell at NASDAQ last month, and I was honored to represent our company alongside some of our longest tenured employees. Standing next to me were just a few of our more than 2,500 employees who have been with us and our local energy companies for 25 years or more. Our operating companies have over 800 years of collective experience delivering energy to customers provided by dedicated employees who keep the lights on and the gas flowing day in and day out, no matter the conditions. And they are the reason our utilities are ranked as the best or among the best in the business for reliability. They also can't do it without smart, targeted investments in our grid. It's why 98% of the net profit earned at our utilities generated with fair returns on the shareholder dollars entrusted with us have been reinvested back into the system over the last five years. Those investments not only deliver top-notch service, but they also boost local economies with every $1 million creating 8 jobs or $1.6 million of economic output. So we don't take this performance or the responsibility of supporting our communities for granted, and we know it will take continued discipline to ensure that we can provide high levels of service at below-average prices for another 25 years and beyond. We will continue to advocate that our jurisdictions provide fair recovery for our investments with the expectation that service remains high, that we treat all users of the grid fairly and equitably, and that we put our customers first. Our priorities this year do just that, ensuring we earn that right to provide our customers top-notch value every day. For example, we continue to focus a dedicated team on pulling costs out of our business to keep cost growth below inflation. We push our business lines to work smarter and leverage technology, providing better service at lower cost. We advocate for rate-making constructs that ensure we can plan, invest, and operate as efficiently as possible, benefiting from alignment and forward-looking planning. We continue to support and leverage customer assistance programs like LIHEAP and to advance rate designs that support the customers who need it most. And we advocate for fair policies that can equitably serve growing load while instilling greater confidence in resource adequacy. That includes developing our innovative TSA approach, which we have filed for our first customer with FERC and are proposing as part of tariff adjustments at ComEd. And it's why we're increasingly advocating that our jurisdictions take more control over their power supply. They can complement supply induced by better-designed markets with solutions like utility-owned generation that regulators oversee, giving them control, certainty, and cost benefits for customers that markets alone don't offer. We look forward to closing out 2025 strong, earning an ROE aligned with allowed levels in the 9% to 10% range, and delivering against our guidance of $2.64 to $2.74 per share, always with the goal of midpoint or better while maintaining a strong balance sheet. There would be no better way to celebrate our 25th year as Exelon and further cement our foundation to deliver consistent growth and long-term value for another 25 years. Gigi, we are now ready for questions on the line.
Operator
Our first question comes from Shar Pourreza at Wells Fargo.
Appreciate it. Luckily, there's no news flow in the space, and it's been kind of relaxed.
That's just our way of saying we missed you.
Yes, I missed you, too. So Kevin, just obviously, resource adequacy was very topical in your prepared remarks. Maybe just starting with Maryland. Just your broad thoughts around the RFP. I mean you've been out there talking about regulated solutions to solve the needs there, and now Constellation just came out with their own solutions ironically this morning. Can we just get a sense of how you're thinking about the process, the timing, and then your views on sort of these competing options that were proposed this morning.
Yes, thank you, Shar, and I appreciate the question. Let me first begin by saying that we commend the state of Maryland for initiating the process. And while we appreciate that they received some responses, our view is that they fall short of what's needed for the state and for PJM more broadly. Having said that, we're happy to see several parties step up and actually talk about adding supply. Let's be clear, this is all about solving the problem and bringing energy costs under control for our customers. And that's what we're focused on, affordability and reliability each and every day. Customers have voiced very strongly that they're frustrated with high energy costs, and we are frustrated too. But overall, we are encouraged to see a reply to the RFP. And like I said, the disclosed need fell short of the goal, and we'll have to see what the Maryland Department of Natural Resources and other stakeholders recommend to the PSC, but we are more than willing to step up. And as we've said before, Shar, if the competitive market is willing to step up and fill this need to meet us where we are at this time and not relying on the old rules of the past, we're okay, but it's time to move forward and continue to be progressive and aggressive in what we're trying to do for the state.
Got it. That's perfect. That's actually consistent with what you've been saying. And then maybe just, Calvin, shifting to Pennsylvania. There's obviously two bills sitting at the House and Senate around resource adequacy. I think they reconvened in November. I guess thoughts there. And more importantly, can the wires companies kind of strike a middle ground with the IPPs maybe around a long-term resource adequacy agreement structure that is also being proposed in the legislation versus this kind of push-pull around rate basing generation or doing nothing and letting the market dictate new bills. So I guess how are the discussions in Pennsylvania going? Do you think you could strike a deal there?
First off, we are committed to working with all the parties, from the governor's office to the IPPs and, of course, with our peers in the state. Mike Innocenzo, our Chief Operating Officer, is here, and I know he's been as former CEO of PECO, he's been very engaged in that discussion as well. Mike, anything to add?
Yes, sure. Thanks, Calvin, and thanks, Shar, for the question. Discussions in Pennsylvania continue to go very well. As you're aware, Pennsylvania is a little different space in that they continue to be an exporter, continuing to see the value of being an exporter, leveraging our natural resources in Pennsylvania and continuing to see the advantage of being an exporter in terms of economic development and look at that as an opportunity to solve that. There are two active bills, one in the Senate, one in the House that are being discussed. At the same time, we're talking with the governor's office about all of the above solutions, including longer-term PPAs and contracts. So I think you'll start to see more activity, probably more likely in the spring. Candidly, they're in the middle of budget discussions in Pennsylvania right now, which is taking most of the legislative space. But we've seen some active discussions with the governor's office. In addition, I don't know if you saw that the PUC hired a party to do a third-party study on that, and I think that will also inform where we go in the spring.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Paul Zimbardo from Jefferies.
I was hoping you could unpack the new Illinois legislation a little bit just in terms of what you see the investment opportunities, energy efficiency, and transmission for some of these distributed resources. If you could just kind of unpack that a little bit, that would be helpful.
Sure, Paul. I'll start and then bring in my colleague, Jeanne, for further insights. As you know, during the last night of the Fall Veto session, Illinois passed Senate Bill 25, the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act. This legislation is focused on new customer programs and state policy regarding resource adequacy. It enhances the energy efficiency program, which is an effective strategy to improve resource adequacy, and sets a goal of 3 gigawatts of storage by 2030, which is significant. Additionally, it broadens opportunities for consumers to access distributed generation rebate programs, promotes virtual power plant initiatives, and requires time-of-use rate options, which ComEd already offers. This is part of our commitment to evolve in that direction. Furthermore, it emphasizes the state's role in developing an integrated resource plan, which I mentioned earlier. We believe this offers the state a chance to showcase leadership in energy policy while also fostering economic development. From ComEd's and Exelon's perspectives, we aim to invest in the grid to maintain our top position in reliability and resiliency, as well as to spur job creation and economic growth in the state. Our CEO, Gil Quiniones at ComEd, has been actively discussing the next steps with both the commission and the governor, and we are fully engaged in this process.
Excellent. And as we all start to think about the fourth quarter and maybe a little bit of a sneak peek, I like that transmission slide where you showed the large step-up in rate base in 2028. And obviously, that doesn't all add earnings in '28. As we think about 2029 and that roll forward, is it fair to think about the stronger growth year than 2020, you say below the midpoint of the range. Is it fair to think 2029 is stronger within the range?
Yes. We'll provide formal guidance during the Q4 call, Paul. It seems you're on the right track. We have numerous transmission opportunities to meet the increasing demand we're witnessing. We're quite enthusiastic about the competitive aspect of transmission as well. You may have noticed that we've been active in the open window, partnering with others and also developing solutions from Exelon’s standpoint. We expect to have more clarity on this by the end of the year, which we will include in the Q4 update. This is not part of our guidance nor is it included in the $10 billion to $15 billion of transmission we discuss outside the window. Additionally, I want to emphasize that all of those solutions are targeted for 2030 to 2032. So the expenditures are just around the corner, outside the current planning period. However, this reflects the strength and longevity of our ongoing growth in our rate base. We consistently aim for a growth rate of 7% to 8% to support a target of 5% to 7%. I believe this positions us effectively to perform well within the upper range of that 7% to 8%.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella from Barclays.
Could you clarify whether you'll have more information about repairs and the CAMT by year-end, and how that might influence the financing outlook as we prepare for disclosures up to 2029? What is the timeline for getting that clarification?
Yes, we're hopeful we get clarity by the end of the year. We know the IRS is working on additional guidance for CAMT. And so hopeful we get that clarity by the end of the year. We do know some guidance was put out. The way it was written didn't achieve the full intent. And so we're still working on that. But what I would say, though, is that, as we've talked about, that would be incremental cushion into the balance sheet and would be factored into the full update for our financing plan on Q4. But pleased to see progress there. I just want to hopefully close it out here in this year.
And I guess like if you had the opportunity to use that cushion, is it less equity needs or accelerate CapEx further, just cognizant of the different pushes and pulls there?
Yes, we aim to reach 14%, as previously mentioned. This momentum will help us achieve that target by the end of the planning period. We have equity, hybrids, and additional capital coming in, which we will combine to ensure an efficient plan while maintaining at least 14% and ideally driving towards a midpoint of 5% to 7% or better. All these factors will be considered, and this provides us a helpful cushion towards reaching 14%.
That's great. And then just if I could really quick. I know it's small, but just the ACE rate case has been going on for a long time. And you're still saying that you're on track to settle this case. And maybe you can kind of talk a little bit about what's kind of informing the view that settlement is still on the table and why this wouldn't just go to a final order in the coming months here.
Thank you, Nick. To your point, that case was filed in November of 2024. And I need to give the Atlantic City Electric team and Tyler Anthony, the CEO of Pepco Holdings, a lot of credit because they've been working with the commission and all stakeholders, including our governor, and just making sure that we're being transparent, talking about each and every investment where it's needed and what the shared goals of the parties are. And that's why we're encouraged that we can get to settlement, but it is a process. And we do anticipate that, that will happen by the end of the year. But at the same time, they do have the right to implement the interim rates subject to refund. So I believe that keeps all of the discussions moving forward and the settlement on the table because under law, once you implement it, then it's subject. So they're saying, let's get it right, right out of the gate. And that's what they've been working on from day one. And I know we've been talking to both gubernatorial candidates on where we're going and what we're trying to do in that partnership. So that's why we're encouraged.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan Securities LLC.
Just want to pivot a little bit here, if we could, towards the Amazon TSA. It seems like there's been some developments there. Just wondering if you could provide us, I guess, your most updated thoughts on this part of the business.
We have begun implementing what we refer to as a transmission services agreement for our large load customers. The first agreement was established with the PECO data center in PECO's territory. This strategy is beneficial for a couple of reasons. Firstly, it helps to solidify projects, potentially eliminating any speculative initiatives. Secondly, it offers protection for our other customers. It resembles our traditional practices on the distribution side, where we require deposits and letters of credit to safeguard other customers in case the anticipated demand does not materialize. While we executed our first agreement in the PECO territory, we have also filed for a large load tariff in the ComEd service area, requiring all large loads exceeding 50 megawatts to sign these agreements. We believe this approach ensures stronger commitments while also protecting other customers if demand does not increase. Additionally, on Slide 13 of the presentation, we illustrated how the pipeline of large loads is transitioning into the high probability category. You can see the 47 gigawatts we are examining, indicating which projects are still under review and which ones have been studied and are awaiting a TSA. Once we finalize a TSA, we will categorize it as high probability, allowing us to track the progression of various loads and megawatts.
Got it. That's helpful. And just wondering, I guess, any thoughts, I guess, on the $10 billion to $15 billion of transmission CapEx and thinking about probability weighting all this and everything as you outlined there, we've seen a number of your peers across the space lift their growth outlooks. And just wondering, I guess, what opportunities Exelon sees to stay kind of competitive with those type of growth rates?
Yes. I believe we are managing our core business effectively. Our transmission and distribution operations are performing at a high level, consistently exceeding guidance while maintaining competitive rates. As we consider growth, we will look at transmission and energy security solutions. However, at Exelon, we prioritize including only certain and reliable elements in our plans. Regarding transmission, we currently have proposals submitted to PJM, and we will have updates on those by the end of the year. Once we have clarity, we will incorporate them into our plans so you can trust their viability. For now, we are focused on executing our current commitments. As new opportunities arise later in our planning, we will evaluate them, but our immediate goal is to ensure what's executable is in place before discussing further expansion.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.
Let's see, I had a quick question on that large load pipeline that you've laid out on Slide 13. I was just wondering if you could just maybe characterize how you probability weight that 47-gigawatt pipeline. I appreciate the extra detail you provided there. But like in aggregate, are those still less likely to move forward? Or for some of those, is it just more of a matter of timing where eventually those could become more advanced stage projects?
I believe it's primarily a timing issue. What we aim to do before moving it to that column is two-fold. First, we need to complete the cluster study, which involves analyzing all the loads in a cluster format. This will enable us to provide our customers with more certainty regarding timing, connection, and other related questions such as location. We want to accomplish this first. After we provide that information to the customers, the next step is to have them sign the TSA agreement. So it’s a two-step process. Once this is completed, both our team, the states, and our customers can have much greater confidence that it is highly probable and will be included in the 18-plus column. That's our approach. I can assure you that it’s all real and continues to grow. If you look at the chart, six projects have already been studied and are just awaiting TSA signing. There are 20 projects in the Mid-Atlantic and Illinois that are currently being studied, and another 20 are set to enter the next cluster study. Over the past couple of years, we've seen growth in this from 6 gigawatts to 18 highly probable and 47 that have been studied or are pending study. This demonstrates that there is significant certainty here. However, until we complete those two steps, we won't classify it as highly probable. That's the process we're currently implementing.
And David, I would just add that what's significant about that is you've probably heard discussions about a lot of double counting that may be happening across the country and the industry. Our process helps eliminate that and really focuses on who's real and who's not.
Yes, absolutely. That makes sense. And I guess on that time to connect, I guess, what is the time to connect that you're seeing for new data center projects that are kind of getting into that 47-gigawatt, getting into the cluster study process? What is the maybe wait time or when are you able to offer power in your service territory for new data centers?
I'll start with that general it depends; it depends on size, location, and the ramp-up period. But Mike Innocenzo and his CEOs have been involved in this process from day one, and I'll look to Mike to give any further clarity.
Yes, I would like to elaborate on that. It varies depending on several factors. We recognize that speed is crucial, so we begin by assessing where we have capacity on the grid. Our initial conversations with any data center focus on identifying existing capacity and infrastructure. For instance, the NorthPoint location in PECO's territory utilized a site from a former facility. They finalized the TSA agreement a few months back, and by spring, it will become PECO's largest customer at that site. Whenever possible, we leverage existing infrastructure and capacity to facilitate connections. We're collaborating with our customers to minimize ramp-up time so they can connect quickly, within a year or even less, like in the case of NorthPoint using current facilities. Additionally, we are coordinating with PJM to expedite necessary long-term investments to upgrade the grid for larger loads.
And if I can, David, let me share with you; you've got the back end of what operations takes over. Over 1.5 years ago, we centralized all of our large accounts, our data center accounts to really work with the customers in the strategic planning process. Just last month, we had our 25 largest customers in Chicago and really started talking to them about what you need, where you're going, and what is your ramp-up time on certain things across our jurisdictions. So it's not just one state. We're working with them about what we have across our footprint, which once again elevates the size and scale of Exelon because we're in multiple jurisdictions, and we can help meet that need. So we started this process a long time ago, and we get up in the strategic planning process before we even start talking about shoveling ground. Well, first off, let me just say thank you. Thank you for taking the time today and for being part of our 25-year journey at Exelon. We appreciate your support, and we look forward to seeing many of you next week at EEI. We're looking forward to the discussion, and just the constant dialogue means a lot to us, and I know for our employees to be engaged in. And so with that, Gigi, this concludes the call.
Operator
Thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.