General Motors Company (GM) — Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

Thanks, Tabitha. Good morning, and thank you for joining us as we review GM's financial results for the fourth quarter and calendar year 2020. Our press results were issued this morning and the conference call materials are available on GM Investor Relations website. We're also broadcasting this call via webcast. I'm joined today by Mary Barra, GM's Chairman and CEO; Paul Jacobson, GM's Executive Vice President and CFO; and Dan Berce, President and CEO of GM Financial. It's my pleasure to welcome Paul to his first earnings call with us today and give Paul a chance to talk about his enthusiasm for our shared vision and accelerating our path forward. Before we begin, I would like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statements on the first page of the chart set. The content of our call will be governed by this language. I will now turn the call over to Mary.

Thanks, Rocky, and hello, everyone. Thanks for joining. This morning, we shared the details of our strong 2020 financial performance, including Q4 records for EBIT-adjusted, EBIT-adjusted margin, EPS diluted adjusted, and a record year for GM Financial. These results were driven by the quick actions we took to recover from the early effects of the pandemic. Looking at the past year, our employees, suppliers, and dealers rallied with speed and agility to support our customers and our communities as well as protecting the business. The pandemic has been a catalyst for finding new and better ways to work while strengthening our resolve to win. As some of our plants suspended production in the early days, our teams rapidly turned to producing critical care ventilators and personal protective equipment for patients and frontline health care workers. After our first conversation with Ventec Life Systems, we began production in just 30 days and we built 30,000 ventilators in 154 days. And with that same speed, we developed rigorous safety protocols so we could restart our operations around the globe. This collective spirit was inspiring, and it still drives us and it's contributing to the greatest era of transformation in the history of our company. In spite of the pandemic, we accelerated mission-critical businesses like our EV and AV initiative. We maximized production of full-size trucks, and we launched our new family of full-size SUVs safely and on time. We'll sustain this culture of innovation and leadership in 2021 and beyond, and that is my focus this morning. We are fully committed to a capital allocation strategy that invests in new and existing businesses to drive growth. We're going to generate that growth through our EV portfolio as well as businesses like BrightDrop, OnStar Insurance Services, subscription services like Super Cruise and OnStar Guardian and much more to come from our growth and innovation team. The semiconductor shortage won't slow our growth plans, and with our mitigation strategies, we still expect a very good year for General Motors, and Paul will share additional details in his remarks. We have strong underlying performance and very strong momentum with customers. Last year, for example, we posted our largest year-over-year U.S. market share gain since 1990 led by full-size trucks and SUVs. In 2020, GM was the full-size pickup sales leader in the United States, thanks to gains by the Chevrolet Silverado and record GMC Sierra deliveries, and we plan to expand our capacity in early 2022. The new Cadillac Escalade, GMC Yukon, and Chevrolet Tahoe and Suburban are leading the full-size SUV market. And GM China rode the increasing market preference for large MPVs and luxury vehicles to year-over-year sales increases in these segments, including record deliveries for Cadillac. And as we look to the future, we are well positioned from a policy standpoint. I personally and members of our senior leadership team have had discussions with President Biden, Vice President Harris, and several key cabinet appointees. The Biden administration is increasingly aligned around the importance of domestic manufacturing and the need for widespread adoption of EVs. We look forward to working with the administration on policies that support safer transportation with zero emissions. When you look at the strategy we have shared, it should be clear. We will seize every opportunity to drive growth, expand our markets, and enter new ones. Our Ultium platform is core to these initiatives. It is the foundation for our upcoming global family of EVs. With our first-generation Ultium platform, we will now see a 40% battery cost reduction compared to today's Chevrolet Bolt EV. And we're already working on the next-generation of Ultium battery technology, which will deliver a 60% improvement over the Bolt EV with double the energy density. To do this work, we've hired almost half of the 3,000 expected new tech employees across engineering, design and IT, and we expect to finish hiring by the end of the quarter. What is especially exciting to me is that our vision and our commitments and our aspirations are attracting incredibly talented people to GM. They believe in what we are doing, and when they arrive, they are finding like-minded colleagues already hard at work. Since we first introduced our growth strategy and related announcements in November, we have shared even more of the aggressive steps we are taking to accelerate our plan. We have committed to increasing our EV and AV investments to $27 billion from 2020 through 2025, including more than $7 billion this year alone. With this investment, we will launch 30 EVs globally and achieve EV market leadership in North America. In addition, by mid-decade, we plan to sell at least 1 million EVs per year in our two largest markets in North America and with our joint venture partners in China. During CES in January, we revealed a new GM brand identity that honors our past but signals our future. We also introduced a new safety brand, Periscope. It describes how we will advance toward a world with zero crashes by integrating vehicle technology, research, and advocacy. And we launched a new brand campaign called Everybody In, which is our call to action to get everyone in an EV. Everybody In is a powerful idea because we must all be all in to achieve our goals. We'll offer EVs across all of our brands and at price points that span the global EV market from the Wuling Hong Guang Mini to the Cadillac CELESTIQ. As for the GMC Hummer EV, we have prototypes on the road right now, and they are undergoing cold weather testing in Michigan's upper peninsula, then they will head to Yuma, Arizona into the toughest off-road trails in Moab, Utah. In the meantime, VIN 001 is already spoken for. As part of GMC's partnership with the Tunnel to Towers Foundation, the first GMC Hummer EV will be auctioned on March 27. All proceeds will go to assisting the families of fallen and disabled soldiers and first responders. We envision a future where there is an EV offering for everyone. Our future will be inclusive and comprehensive, and it will create new businesses, and in some cases new brands. BrightDrop is a powerful example. It is a new commercial EV business that targets delivery and logistics providers, particularly those in the parcel and food delivery industries with innovative zero-emission solutions. From a revenue standpoint, we'll provide vehicles like an EV600 van, which is a substantial opportunity in and of itself because the global market for light commercial vehicles is almost 9 million units today according to IHS Markit. And we believe demand for electric light commercial vehicles will grow quickly. The market seems to agree. In fact, third-party research estimates that the addressable market for eLCVs could be $30 billion by 2025 and double that in 2030. BrightDrop also allows us to create new sources of value for our customers beyond the vehicle, driving diverse income streams from a full ecosystem of products and services. FedEx Express is slated to receive the first EV600 later this year. The EV600s will help them meet their stated fuel efficiency goals as part of their broader sustainability strategy and electrification efforts. FedEx Express has also conducted a pilot with the BrightDrop EP1 electric pallet product and has another 1 planned. In this first pilot, the EP1 demonstrated significant productivity increases in the delivery process. Similarly, Merchants Fleet, which has more than 150,000 vehicles under management, is targeting to have 50% of its mobile fleet electric by 2025 and 50% of its managed clients' fleets by 2030, and is moving forward with plans to put 12,600 BrightDrop EV600s into service. Another exciting and potentially lucrative source of growth is our Hydrotec fuel cell technology. Like BrightDrop, Hydrotec is proof that General Motors' vision of a world with zero emissions isn't limited to passenger vehicles. Less than 2 weeks ago, Navistar, GM and OneH2 announced a zero-emission long-haul transportation ecosystem that will launch in 2024. Navistar will begin building Class 8 trucks for its launch customers, GM will supply Hydrotec fuel cells and OneH2 will supply the hydrogen fueling infrastructure. It's an exciting way for us to partner in the Class 8 segment, a nearly $30 billion market in the U.S. alone and one that we haven't seen before. And we believe this is just the beginning for Hydrotec. This is a nascent multibillion-dollar hydrogen power industry for trucking, military, aerospace and stationary power applications that we are targeting directly as well as through GM Defense. Customers and shareholders will continue to see even more evidence throughout 2021 that we're executing our vision and plans for growth. One great example is right around the corner. On Sunday, GM will unveil the 2022 Bolt EUV, which arrives this summer and will be built in Orion, Michigan. The all-new Bolt EUV and refreshed Bolt EV feature unique exterior designs and new interiors. The Bolt EUV will provide nearly 3 inches more legroom than the Bolt EV and will have available wireless phone charging and wireless Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, allowing customers to easily access their music and podcasts. Like the original Bolt EV, the new Bolt EUV and refreshed Bolt EV will build on Chevy's commitment to attainable EVs. The Chevrolet Bolt EUV is the first Chevrolet and the first GM EV to offer Super Cruise technology, 1 of the 22 GM vehicles that will offer Super Cruise by 2023. Based on feedback from Cadillac customers, we're confident that we will build a steady stream of subscription revenue because our customers don't want to drive without it. In addition, GM, Cruise and Microsoft will increasingly leverage Azure, Microsoft's cloud and edge computing platform, to help commercialize self-driving vehicles at scale. And with new investment by GM, Microsoft, Honda and other institutional investors, the estimated valuation of Cruise now stands at $30 billion. And just yesterday, the California DMV released the 2020 disengagement data for autonomous vehicles, and we are very pleased with the excellent continuing improvement and leadership shown by Cruise. This fall, we'll begin building the GMC Hummer EV at our Factory ZERO in Detroit and Hamtramck. Work on our flagship EV plant is on track, and we cannot wait to start shipping vehicles to customers. Among its many advanced manufacturing capabilities, Factory ZERO will be the first U.S. auto plant equipped with 5G fixed mobile network technology. As we said in November, our $27 billion in EV and AV investments will include additional EV assembly and battery capability beyond what we've announced for Factory ZERO, Spring Hill in Tennessee and our LTM cells JV plant in Ohio, where hiring is already underway. In fact, employees will build prototypes later this year. Along the way, OnStar Insurance Services is on target to expand to all 50 states by the end of the year. What's happening inside our company and behind the scenes is also important to our success. Delivering this exciting new chapter for GM requires a special team that values diversity and inclusion, a safe workplace and the commitment to create a better, safer and more sustainable world. We aspire to be the most inclusive company in the world because it's the right thing to do and because diversity and inclusion are the foundation of a winning culture. I am deeply and personally engaged in this part of our strategy. Our strong values are a compelling tailwind for GM. They will drive creativity, agility and so much more for our future. This future also inspires us to do even more to help mitigate the effects of climate change, and we will. Less than 2 weeks ago, we announced plans to become carbon-neutral in our global products and operations by 2040. We will set science-based targets to achieve carbon neutrality, and we aspire to eliminate tailpipe emissions from new light-duty vehicles globally by 2035. We will source 100% renewable energy to power our global sites by 2035, 5 years earlier than we announced just a year ago. And we have signed the Business Ambition Pledge for 1.5-degree Celsius, a call to action from a global coalition of UN agencies, business and industry leaders. Like everything else we do, we will provide updates on our progress, and we will hold ourselves accountable. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Paul.

Thanks, Mary, and good morning, everyone. Before I get into the results, I want to take a quick minute to thank Mary, the broader executive team and really the entire organization for the warm welcome that I've received in my time so far here at GM. I'm really excited for the opportunities that we have ahead of us as we build appreciation for the innovation that we are championing right now. Whether it's in EV, AV, connected services or our overarching vision of zero crashes, zero emissions and zero congestion. We are executing well on our growth strategy and accelerating these growth opportunities with an emphasis on investing in new businesses while maintaining a strong investment-grade balance sheet. We believe we can take advantage of these once-in-a-generation opportunities to achieve strong profitable growth with a solid return on investment. Being a part of GM as it writes the next chapters of its history is a huge honor for me. I look forward to continuing the conversations I've had with the investment community thus far and getting to know those of you I have not yet had the chance to meet. Now let's get into the results. While 2020 was adversely impacted by production challenges experienced in the first half of the year, we demonstrated resilience and flexibility as we quickly moved to preserve liquidity and manage inventory while still launching an all-new lineup of our highly profitable full-size SUVs and prioritizing investments in our all-electric future. Even in the face of the pandemic, we generated results of $122.5 billion in net revenue, $9.7 billion in EBIT-adjusted, 7.9% margins, $4.90 in EPS diluted adjusted and $2.6 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow in 2020. In the fourth quarter, we continued to see strength in demand as we generated $3.7 billion in EBIT-adjusted, including the $1.1 billion charge for Takata. We far exceeded the top end of the scenario shared on our Q3 earnings call, absent the impact of Takata due to strong performance in North America and GM Financial, in particular. We also drove strong Q4 net revenue of $37.5 billion, approximately 10% EBIT-adjusted margins and $1.93 in EPS diluted adjusted and $3.4 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow. The Q4 $1.93 EPS diluted adjusted includes a negative impact of $0.59 from the Takata airbag-inflator recall and a $0.26 gain from investments in PSA and Lordstown Motor Corporation. In Q4, we fully repaid the remaining balance on our corporate revolver draw and ended the year with a strong automotive cash balance of $22.3 billion and total automotive liquidity of more than $40 billion. Let's take a closer look at North America. In the calendar year, North America delivered EBIT-adjusted of $9.1 billion, up $900 million year-over-year and a 9.4% margin. In Q4, North America delivered EBIT-adjusted of $2.6 billion, up $2.3 billion year-over-year as we moved past the effect of the 2019 strike. Continued performance from the launch of our all-new full-size SUVs and disciplined pricing on our full-size pickup trucks offset the impact of the Takata recall. U.S. retail sales have continued to recover, with Q4 GM results up 12% year-over-year despite limited inventories, closing the year strong with December retail sales up over 19% year-over-year. We have seen this strong performance continue into January, with sales up 9% year-over-year. Additionally, U.S. retail market share gains have been solid, up 1.4 percentage points year-over-year in Q4, exceeding 18% market share, driven by the newly launched full-size SUVs and high demand for large pickup trucks. And we are looking forward to retail EV growth, where we are seeing encouraging signs for demand. We're really excited about the launch of the GMC Hummer EV this fall. When we revealed that in Q4, it was the most watched auto reveal in history with 1.3 billion impressions and 370 million views. And it created the highest website traffic of any GM model ever. We wanted to kick off GM's acceleration towards EVs with something as exciting as the GMC Hummer EV, a vehicle that we are very proud of. And it's just the beginning as we roll out 30 new EVs globally by 2025, with several high volume entries in North America by 2023. Let's move to GM International. Full year EBIT-adjusted in GMI was a loss of $500 million, down $300 million year-over-year due to the effects of the pandemic on operations, particularly in China, partially offset by performance improvement outside of China. For the fourth quarter, we were encouraged by our progress with EBIT-adjusted of $300 million, up $400 million year-over-year due to positive price/mix and benefits from our cost actions, partially offset by weaker FX in South America. We delivered $500 million of equity income in China for the calendar year, including $200 million in Q4, in line with our expectations. As we progress through the year following Q1 lows, we saw market recovery and benefits from our launches and cost actions, returning to the approximately $200 million quarterly equity income run rate in Q2 through Q4. We received $500 million in dividends from our China automotive JVs in Q4, bringing total dividends to $1 billion for the year. Just a few comments on GM Financial, Cruise and our Corp segment before we turn to 2021. GM Financial posted revenue of $13.8 billion for the year and record EBT-adjusted of $2.7 billion. In the fourth quarter, GM Financial generated revenue of $3.4 billion and EBT-adjusted of $1 billion, a Q4 record, up $500 million year-over-year due to strong used vehicle prices, contributing to gains on sale of off-leased vehicles, improved credit performance and lower interest expense due to declining interest rates. Cruise costs for the year and in the quarter were $900 million and $300 million, respectively. 2020 was a huge year for Cruise. After substantial development and testing, Cruise has now reached the point where it has removed the human driver from behind the wheel and is now fully testing driverless cars on the streets of San Francisco successfully, as Mary noted earlier. We expect many more good things to come for Cruise in 2021. Cruise segment spend is projected to be about $1 billion in '21. Corp segment costs were $600 million for the year and better in the fourth quarter than the normal run rate of $1 billion due to investment gains. We expect the underlying spend in the Corp segment to be about $1.2 billion in 2021, an increase over our normal run rate as we are accounting for certain growth initiatives in the Corp segment. In late 2018, we made a strategic decision to accelerate our transformation for the future to strengthen our core business, capitalize on the future of personal mobility and drive significant cost efficiencies. Our plan included a path to achieve $4 billion to $4.5 billion in cost savings through 2020. I'm pleased to report that we have achieved $4.5 billion in savings since 2018, including $200 million in Q4 and inclusive of $200 million of savings related to the wind-down of Holden and sale of our Thailand business. Having the right cost structure that aligns with our strategy is a key focus for us. We've made great progress with the actions taken over the past several years, and we will continue to pursue incremental efficiencies. Now let's turn to the 2021 outlook for the calendar year. As we enter 2021, we see ongoing industry recovery and strong demand for our most profitable products. The underlying business has never been more robust. I want to provide some macro context around 2021 to help set the stage. With continued recovery of the U.S. light vehicle industry in '21, we expect SAAR to be in the mid-16 million unit range, with a stronger second half as we experience normal seasonality in Q1 and expect to see an inflection point in the spring as vaccination rates increase and warmer weather lifts consumer sentiment and auto demand. In China, we expect the industry to grow year-over-year as the economy continues to recover. However, we expect a continued competitive pricing environment with increased environmental compliance costs. In South America, we expect continued commercial and portfolio strength to more than offset the macro headwinds. Finally, we expect commodity prices to be a significant headwind as platinum group metals and steel prices have seen major increases in recent weeks and months. Our underlying 2021 performance is expected to be strong, including EBIT-adjusted in the $10 billion to $11 billion range as the fundamental business is robust, and we will offset significant commodity headwinds while increasing investments to support our growth strategy and EPS diluted adjusted in the range of $4.50 to $5.25. As Mary mentioned at the outset of this call, the industry-wide semiconductor supply shortage will also impact us this year, as it does many other industries. Included in the guidance I just provided is an estimated $1.5 billion to $2 billion in EBIT-adjusted full-year impact driven by loss contribution margin, partially offset by mitigation efforts through cost and go-to-market actions. We expect the shortage to be temporary, and we'll look to focus on protecting supply of our highest demand products such as full-size trucks and SUVs as well as EVs. Importantly, we do not believe this short-term headwind will affect our long-term earnings power, and we remain committed to our growth initiatives and the EV acceleration we have previously communicated. From an adjusted automotive free cash flow perspective, we estimate a 2021 impact from the semiconductor shortage in the $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion range, putting 2021 adjusted automotive free cash flow guidance in the range of $1 billion to $2 billion. We announced the extension of downtime at Fairfax, CAMI and San Luis Potosi yesterday, which is included in our numbers above. Our intent is to make up as much production lost at these plants in the second half of the year as possible. We expect 2021 CapEx to be in the $9 billion to $10 billion range, which includes approximately $2 billion of deferred CapEx from 2020 as well as accelerated investments in our all-electric future. Also included in our guidance is cash outflow from the Takata recall, which we expect to occur over the next 2 to 3 years from the expense we took in the fourth quarter. Nonoperating items included in our guidance worth mentioning include higher year-over-year net interest expense and an expected tax rate of approximately 24%, which is higher primarily from the tax deconsolidation of Cruise. Regarding earnings results cadence, we expect the second half to be stronger than the first half, primarily as a result of some of the production downtime we will take in certain plants to manage the semiconductor supply shortages. Finally, I want to spend a minute on capital allocation. The top priority for us is to invest in both new and existing businesses, including previously announced investments to accelerate EV and AV growth while reducing complexity and leveraging current architectures across the ICE portfolio to drive better productivity and customer response, which will help fund investments in our future. To support this growth strategy, in 2021, we will spend more capital on EV and AV product programs than on gasoline and diesel power development for the first time in our history. Our capital allocation plan includes more than $6 billion spending on EV and $1 billion on AV in 2021, and we will fund key growth initiatives such as BrightDrop, OnStar Insurance Services, subscription services like Super Cruise and OnStar Guardian aimed at accessing new addressable markets that we have never tapped before, representing a significant top-line growth opportunity. We will fund these growth investments with internally generated cash while maintaining our investment-grade balance sheet. In summary, we had a strong finish to the year, highlighting the underlying strength of our business. We have again demonstrated our strength, flexibility, laser focus on execution and ability to manage through a significant disruption while still generating strong results. This focus will continue in '21 as we manage the challenges of the industry-wide semiconductor shortage while continuing to launch new and exciting products and services and position GM to win in the future of mobility, and I'm proud to be a part of this team. This concludes our opening comments, and we'll now move to the Q&A portion of the call.

Congratulations on the performance. I have two long-term questions. One is that you mentioned some growth initiatives might lead to new brands like BrightDrop, but I see that BrightDrop is still using the independent dealer model. Independent dealers do earn some revenue, but they also take a portion of the gross margin and finance and insurance per vehicle, which some new entrants view as a disadvantage for existing players. I'm curious if there are any changes to the way BrightDrop’s franchise agreements work to create a more level playing field with new competitors.

So Rod, we see our dealers as a significant asset to the company. They play a crucial role in partnering with us to deliver exceptional sales and service. As the industry evolves and customer expectations shift for both retail and fleet from BrightDrop's perspective, we recognize that our dealers are adapting as well. A large number of our dealers are particularly enthusiastic about the EV transformation and the opportunities it presents. We have been collaborating extensively, especially since the pandemic accelerated our efforts, to better support our customers, meet them where they are, and reduce costs in both of our businesses. This is the journey we are on. For competitive reasons, I won’t disclose all the specific changes and transformation initiatives we are implementing, but they are significant. Our dealers are actively engaged and excited about these developments.

Okay. And just secondly, you mentioned subscription services. And actually, one of your slides mentions that your next-generation electronic architecture is going to be available on 29 different models by 2023. It sounds like you think that the vehicles that you sell have the potential to become platforms for deploying services and features that you could charge for. So I was hoping you can maybe give us a little bit more insight into the potential there. Sounds like Super Cruise is one of these things. But what is the sort of projected population of vehicles that you're going to be targeting? What are the kinds of subscriptions that you think you might be able to generate?

So Rod, we're very excited about the opportunity we have to present services, especially as we now have the vehicle intelligent platform, which is our new electrical architecture underpinning the entire vehicle. And it protects the vehicle from a cyber safety perspective as well as gives us tremendous over-the-air updates and the ability to provide services on demand. You mentioned Super Cruise, that is one that will have the ability to do. There are several other opportunities that we're exploring and frankly working on right now. Again, we haven't announced any of them publicly, but I will tell you, we have a whole team across our sales and marketing team partnering with our engineering team and software engineers. So, you'll hear more about this as we go forward, but we think it's going to be a huge growth opportunity for us.

Just had one financial and one strategic question. On the financial question, I was hoping you could quantify for the 2021 bridge just the raw material impact that you're expecting as well just the volume impact embedded in the estimates for the semiconductor shortage.

We have observed about a 120% increase in steel and PGM prices since May of last year, which amounts to a couple of billion dollars. We are making progress in offsetting these costs and will continue to target areas to drive savings, which we have factored into our estimates. However, it's important to note that there is often a delay in responding to price changes. Regarding volume, these numbers are fluctuating rapidly. We are building vehicles that we plan to retrofit with components later in the second half and managing our volumes for the latter part of the year. Therefore, it’s too early to discuss the volume figures, but we estimate a net impact of $1.5 billion to $2 billion from the initiatives we believe we can implement to help mitigate these challenges.

Great, that's very helpful, Paul. I wanted to focus on the AV aspect of the discussion, particularly regarding Cruise. Given the progress we've observed in the California reports, could you provide an update on the current thinking from you and the Cruise team about when Cruise will deploy? Do you intend to compete with rideshare networks, partner with them, or possibly both? I would appreciate your insights on this. Additionally, regarding GM's AV investments, it seems like you're accelerating those efforts as well. Mary, could you discuss the strategy around the zero crash vision? What should we anticipate regarding AV deployment in GM vehicles over the next five years? What kind of path should we expect?

Sure, Itay, thanks for the question. I'm really excited about the fact that we're planning to implement Super Cruise in multiple vehicles and the positive customer feedback we've received, which continues to grow and certainly aids in creating a safer environment aimed at zero crashes. We've discussed the next generation of Super Cruise, which will offer even more capabilities that we can provide to vehicles, and in some instances, introduce additional features over the air, marking a significant advancement by 2025. Regarding Cruise, they are consistently meeting their milestones and maintaining a strong focus on safety, which has always been our top priority. They are also ensuring that the customer experience is enjoyable. I'm very encouraged by their progress, especially as they are currently testing in San Francisco without drivers in specific situations. I won’t specify a timeline for our commercial launch, but the strides we are making suggest that it is much closer than many believe. As for partnering with existing rideshare services, we have the capability to launch our own service. We already have an application being utilized by our employees. When we reach a point where we can operate without a driver and launch commercially, we will seize opportunities that maximize shareholder value. At that point, you can think of it as a platform.

First, a financial question and then a longer-term one as well. So on the financial side, it seems like there was very strong price/mix, very strong volume contribution in North America. But then at the same time, I think that there was a bit of a cost headwind, even excluding the airbag recall. And I think your slides talk about some warranty and materials performance. And so I wanted to see if you could give a little bit more detail around what happened specifically in North American cost in the quarter. And how do you think about it in your bridge to 2021?

Emmanuel, it's Paul. You mentioned that Takata was the biggest issue, but I would also point out that the other two concerns were mainly related to content and major materials. We have deliberately focused on enhancing content in our new line of full-size SUVs. This improvement is reflected in the pricing adjustments and what we are achieving in the market. These enhancements are very appealing to consumers, who are willing to pay for them, and we are optimistic about that. Additionally, we experienced some commodity pressures in the fourth quarter, which were roughly split 60-40 between materials and commodities.

And just on this sort of thinking about 2021, is it fair to then assume in a continued pressure, I guess, from the materials cost, excluding commodities, the content cost?

Yes. I would say that content is a good reflection of where we're heading, especially in terms of the volume of full-size SUVs and trucks.

Just the first question on the chip shortage. I was wondering if you could help us think through maybe some of the cash flow and working capital timing impact. I know you gave the impact that's included in the guidance. But it would seem like with some of the strategies you're employing, it might be a little bit more of a working capital drain in the first half relative to the EBIT impact and then maybe a recovery in the back half. Is that correct?

Joe, it's Paul. I believe that's a correct assessment. We anticipate some fluctuations in the near term as we adjust our production, which includes building vehicles and later retrofitting them. Consequently, we expect a greater impact on working capital and EBIT in the first half of the year. However, we anticipate recovering from that in the second half. Additionally, our cash impact guidance was a bit broader than our EBIT guidance because we initially planned for a slight increase in inventory levels, which would be advantageous for working capital. As we ramp up production volumes in the second half, depending on how the semiconductor situation unfolds, we could end up with inventories remaining flat and not realizing the working capital benefit we expected, which is why we've factored in a greater cash impact.

Just quickly, on the fuel cell technology, Mary, to what extent do you see competition from other OEMs looking for that same fuel cell technology?

Well, I think there's certainly opportunity and demand for hydrogen fuel cells. And one of the great advantages we have at GM is the investment and partnerships we've made in that technology over the years. We've partnered with others like Honda and others in order to help drive down costs and improve the scalability of fuel cells, and we think we have a great opportunity ahead. As we develop the technology further, we expect it to be an important part of our portfolio for zero-emission transportation, alongside EVs, and we will continue to position ourselves to capture that market share.

Mary, I just wanted to ask a question. I mean you're really accelerating the advancement of your EV and AV technology much faster than people would have thought not too long ago. But there's the risk of creating some obsolescence around your core ICE products. And it seems like we're going to reach this tipping point in the next few years. So I'm just kind of trying to understand, I mean, a pessimist may say, hey, you're going to blow up to residuals and you're going to have a real problem. An optimist might say, you're going to create a real super cycle for demand. So just curious how you're thinking about that and how you might manage that.

Well, John, it's an excellent question. And I definitely think it presents a super cycle opportunity for us. When you look at our ICE business and the platforms we invested in over the last 5 years, we're well positioned and that's what puts us in a place where we can be investing more in EV and AV than we are in ICE. And so we're going to leverage the platforms that we already have. The strong franchises in full-size trucks, full-size SUVs, midsize crossovers, and I'm also super excited about products like the Chevrolet Trailblazer and the Encore. So we have a really strong portfolio of products as we make this transition that's going to need limited investment. And then we're demonstrating right now, we also have a very capable manufacturing team, manufacturing workforce. We're transitioning the Detroit-Hamtramck plant right now, Factory ZERO, to build electric vehicles. We've also announced Spring Hill. So we have a very well thought through plan of how we will transition our manufacturing facilities to electric vehicles. We can do it in a pretty short time frame. And with the shorter vehicle development process we have for EVs, those 2 go hand-in-hand. And in some cases, investment that we're making to increase our ICE vehicles, we're doing that with a mind for what it will take to then have a quicker, less expensive conversion to EVs. So it's a very well-integrated plan. We'll be customer-driven, but we're working hard to create a delightful EV ownership experience with the right range, the right charging, the services on top of it and the connectivity that we think we can grow as we make this transition and not have stranded assets.

Okay, that's really helpful. I have a follow-up question about the chip shortage. Last year, when we faced production disruptions and supply shortages, it led to tight inventory but also a strong mix and a focus on more profitable vehicles. As you work through the chip shortage, which we hope to resolve later this year, I'm interested in how you plan to reallocate chips to different vehicles and how flexible that process is. Is it possible that we might continue to see a strong mix that could counterbalance any potential reductions in production volume? Also, how much of this is factored into the $1.5 billion to $2 billion EBIT impact you're mentioning regarding the chip shortage?

John, it's Paul. What I would say is that, obviously, the situation is very fluid, and you've seen that from various manufacturers across the board. And what I would say is we're adapting to kind of focus production on two things. Number one, those vehicles that have higher margins and provide better contribution for us. But also with the full-size SUVs and the trucks, they're already operating at full capacity and projected to pretty much for the entire year. So the makeup volume in the back half of the year is harder. So where we are taking chips from are vehicles where we either have a little bit more inventory or, more importantly, we've got production gaps in the back half of the year or capacity to be able to make that up. So it's very fluid as we're managing through this but that's all baked into the numbers that we gave earlier.

Just the first question on the chip shortage. I was wondering if you could help us think through maybe some of the cash flow and working capital timing impact. I know you gave the impact that's included in the guidance. But it would seem like with some of the strategies you're employing, it might be a little bit more of a working capital drain in the first half relative to the EBIT impact and then maybe a recovery in the back half. Is that correct?

Joe, it's Paul. I think that's a fair evaluation. We do anticipate some fluctuations in the near term as we adjust our production and manage through this situation, particularly since we may need to build vehicles and then return to retrofit them. We expect to see a larger impact on working capital and EBIT during the first half of the year, but we believe we can recover in the second half. Additionally, our cash impact estimate was slightly broader than our EBIT estimate. This is partly because we were planning for some inventory buildup to support working capital. As we ramp up production in the second half, depending on how the semiconductor issue progresses, we might end the year with flat inventories and not achieve the working capital benefits we initially expected, which is why we've accounted for a larger cash impact.

Thank you. Well, first of all, I appreciate all of you joining, and thanks for the great questions this morning. I hope you know and see that it's overwhelmingly true that we are at an inflection point on sustainability, on inclusion and diversity and on growth that will deliver shareholder value not just this quarter but for many years to come. I hope that's coming into even sharper focus for all of you. Every quarter moving forward, you can expect to hear us advance our story. I believe we have the talent, the technology, the profitability and the balance sheet to lead, and we will continue to innovate and I look forward to sharing more in the months ahead. So thank you. Please take care and stay safe.