General Motors Company (GM) — Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Thank you, Madison, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us to review GM's financial results for the third quarter of 2022. Our conference call materials were issued this morning and are available on GM's Investor Relations website. We are also broadcasting this call via webcast. Joining us today is Mary Barra, GM's Chair and CEO; Paul Jacobson, GM's Executive Vice President and CFO; as well as Kyle Vogt, CEO of Cruise. Dan Berce, President and CEO of GM Financial, will also be joining us for the Q&A portion of the call. Before we begin, I would like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statements on the first page of our presentation. The content of our call will be governed by this language. And with that, I'm delighted to turn the call over to Mary.

Thanks, Ashish, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining the call. During the third quarter, the GM team once again demonstrated our ability to deliver strong results while executing our growth strategy and managing multiple headwinds. The third quarter brings our EBIT-adjusted earnings for the first nine months of the year to $10.7 billion, which keeps us on track to deliver our full-year guidance. We translated improved supply chain performance into another quarter of full-size pickup and full-size SUV sales leadership with a very strong mix and pricing. The Cadillac Escalade also continues to lead its segment by a wide margin. Chevrolet and GMC unveiled new mid-size and heavy-duty pickups to help maintain our strong position when they launch. And the Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV are selling at record levels, thanks to their range, technology, and value. And in September, they outsold the Ford Mustang Mach-E more than 2:1. BrightDrop is generating revenue in the last-mile delivery segment. And later this year, CAMI Assembly is set to launch BrightDrop production, making it Canada's first large-scale EV plant. Production will ramp up in 2023 to begin fulfilling major orders from our customers, including Walmart, FedEx, and Merchants Fleet. In addition, BrightDrop launched Trace Grocery eCart last month to help speed up online grocery order fulfillment, with Kroger slated to be the first customer. And as Kyle shared last month, Cruise has begun its expansion into Austin and Phoenix, and he'll share an update in a few minutes. It has been a great team effort by everyone, and I really want to thank and recognize the GM team, our suppliers, and our dealers. While the operating environment remains challenging, our team continues to adjust quickly when and where it needs to. This is especially true of our supply chain and manufacturing teams. During the quarter, we completed and shipped nearly 75% of the unfinished vehicles we held in the company inventory in June. That's well ahead of the plan we shared at our last earnings call. As we've moved through the year, we have seen gradual improvement in the supply chain, including semiconductors. Short-term disruptions will continue to happen, but we're taking concrete steps to minimize them and build long-term resiliency. This includes signing several strategic supply agreements for mature nodes where supply is most constrained. We are also working directly with semiconductor suppliers, ensuring long-term forecasts to increase transparency and ensure their planning cycles include our volume. I'd also like to recognize the GM China team. Despite disruptions caused by COVID lockdowns, morale is strong, and the business has returned to profitability, and they are building momentum in China's fast-growing EV market. This includes strong sales of the Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV, which remains China's best-selling electric vehicle; the September launch of the Cadillac LYRIQ and the debut later this year of the first Buick EUV on the Ultium platform. As we grow EV volumes, we continue to benefit from investments we have made in new ICE products and manufacturing capacity, especially in our truck portfolio, where we are the industry leader. In fact, we took full-size pickup leadership from the Ford F-Series in 2020 and have held it ever since. We'll press our advantage with the new 2024 Chevrolet Silverado HD and GMC Sierra HD, which will be available in the first half of 2023. The far-ranging improvements to these trucks, including redesigned interiors, enhanced trailering technology, and new high-feature models like the ZR2 for Chevrolet and the Denali Ultimate for GMC, are designed to support continued strong pricing. We are also launching all-new Chevrolet Colorados and GMC Canyons in the first half of 2023, which will include new premium off-road offerings. Importantly, the launches will be accompanied by significant reductions in complexity. For example, we reduced the number of cab and bed configurations from 3 to 1 to focus on the fastest turning model, and we've also reduced our engine options from 3 to 1. Going forward, all Colorados and Canyons will be powered by the Silverado and Sierra's high output 2.7-liter turbo engine, which is a great solution for customers and our business. The new engine offers more horsepower and torque than the outgoing gas powertrains, and we expect a one to two-mile per gallon fuel economy improvement on most models. Let's turn next to our EV supply chain and manufacturing base, where we are vertically integrating and scaling. To meet strong demand, we will soon be transitioning production of the Cadillac LYRIQ and GMC HUMMER EV from using imported cells to cells produced at our Ultium Cells joint venture plant in Ohio. At the same time, work is underway for higher production at Factory ZERO as well as volume production at CAMI Assembly in Ramos Arizpe starting in 2023 and Orion Assembly in 2024. Construction is also underway on two more Ultium cell plants that will open in 2023 and 2024, respectively. This will help us meet strong and growing demand for the GMC HUMMER EV, the Chevrolet Silverado EV and Chevrolet Equinox EV and Blazer EV, along with the GMC Sierra EV and BrightDrop vans. All of our 2023 launches are progressing well. However, due to a slightly slower launch of cell and pack production than we expected, our plan is now to produce 400,000 EVs in North America over the course of 2022, 2023 and the first half of 2024. We are always gated by quality, and everything we've learned will help us scale more than to more than 1 million units of annual capacity in 2025 with even greater confidence. For growth beyond 2025, we continue to secure our future with strategic supply agreements and direct investments in natural resource recovery, processing, and recycling. The most recent example is the strategic investment we made in Queensland Pacific Metals of Australia to secure cost-competitive nickel and cobalt. The new clean energy tax credits of the US certainly validate our strategy, and they will be a strong tailwind to expand domestic supply chain capacity and drive EV adoption. As we scale the Ultium platform, we have been very intentional to position the company for volume growth, but with flexibility, efficiency, and increased EV profitability over time. This includes fully leveraging the Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV. We're planning to increase Bolt production from about 44,000 vehicles in 2022 to 70,000 vehicles next year, because demand is at record levels. We will use our industry-leading loyalty to move Bolt customers into one of our new EVs, like the Chevrolet Equinox EV for their next purchase. Our Bolt EV and EUV owner base should surpass 200,000 at the end of next year. If we retain them at our average customer loyalty rate of 64%, that's more than 100,000 future customers for Ultium platform vehicles. I believe we can do even better because our new EVs are that good. As I've said, customer demand is strong and growing for the LYRIQ, the HUMMER EV, the Silverado EV, the Blazer EV and the early customer and media response to the Equinox EV and the GMC Sierra EV we just unveiled have been overwhelmingly positive. Electric.com wrote that affordability makes the Equinox EV a win for the company and EV buyers everywhere. And MotorTrend said it could be one of the first vehicles to trigger a tidal wave of EV demand. And with the Sierra EV, GMC will be the only brand with three all-electric trucks in the market, and they are all incredibly distinctive, thanks to the flexibility of the Ultium platform. The Sierra EV Denali's Edition 1, 400 miles of range; 350-kilowatt DC fast charging; 9,500 pounds of towing, bold styling, and luxurious refinements make it unlike anything else in the market. In addition, the agreement we struck with Hertz to deliver as many as 175,000 EVs over the next five years will build on this momentum. Huge segments of the US population have never driven an EV, and renting one for personal or business travel will be far more immersive than a test drive at a dealer. These customers, as well as experienced EV drivers, will see just how exciting and well executed our products are, and this can help increase purchase consideration and sales for GM EVs. There have been many other exciting developments this summer and fall, and I'd like to briefly mention two that speak directly to the power of our brands and the new business opportunities ahead of us. The first is the Cadillac CELESTIQ that we revealed just days ago. It is a completely bespoke work of automotive art, built around the most advanced and innovative technology we have ever engineered. Media described the CELESTIQ as the most advanced, most luxurious, and one of the most important vehicles Cadillac has ever made. But one headline really captured its essence. Cadillac outrolls Rolls Royce. The second is the growth of Super Cruise. Our customers have now traveled 40 million miles with Super Cruise engaged, and the numbers are growing very quickly. We recently doubled its road network to more than 400,000 miles of interstates and non-divided highways, making it even more valuable to customers who are already highly satisfied with the technology. By the end of next year, it will be available on 22 models globally. While we are expanding the competitive advantage we have in advanced driver assistance systems with Super Cruise, the Cruise team in San Francisco continues to make rapid progress in autonomous vehicles. Kyle is with us, so I'd like to invite him to share an update with you.

Thanks, Mary. Overall, we remain largely on track for our goals this year, including expansion in San Francisco and the goal we announced in September to begin commercial driverless operation in two new markets. We've now driven well over 400,000 fully driverless miles in San Francisco and given thousands of rides to members of the public, and we expect to expand our service area and hours of operation soon. We believe this is now the largest, fastest-growing, and most successful commercial robotaxi service in existence and by a large margin. We've done this while building up a solid track record around safety, especially our safety culture, which drives our decision-making and approach to responsible EV deployment. Our product experience is getting better all the time, and we see this reflected in increased adoption and in many rave reviews we receive across both our ride-hail and delivery operations. As you may recall, we plan to do early commercialization in 2021 and 2022, and we have. Next year marks the beginning of our rapid scaling phase where we plan to churn through the backlog of users waiting to use our service, ramp up our operations and start to generate meaningful revenue. As for our new markets, Austin and Phoenix, we remain on track to complete our first commercial driverless public rides and deliveries by the end of the year. This will begin at limited scale initially and ramp up as we produce more vehicles. Our current status is that our mapping systems worked as expected, and we've started supervised testing in Austin with more than a dozen vehicles. As we had hoped, we're finding that most of our AV systems generalize well to new markets and for the handful of things that are unique to Austin, I've seen donkeys, pedicabs, police on horses, our continuous learning machine is able to automatically mine for these unusual things and then retrain our neural networks to better handle those situations. The same technology is already in use in San Francisco and will be used in all other markets, so that our AV system will continuously adapt to changes that occur within that market, such as new kinds of scooters or a predominance of HUMMER EVs or however else cities might change. As for the industry, we're seeing increased separation between the company's operating commercial driverless services and those that are still stuck in the trough of disillusionment. What's happening here is that the companies with the best product have pulled ahead and are accelerating. The best talent follows the best products, and those people are what makes a company great. They have a highly vested interest in identifying and moving to the clear winners, and they're good at it. This virtuous cycle fuels the growth of the leaders and stunts the progress of the laggards. And you've seen this play out at Cruise with us pulling in timing and expanding scale, which is an anomaly in an industry that is dominated by delayed milestones and missed targets. Thank you. Back to you, Mary.

Thanks, Kyle. I appreciate the update and all the work the team is doing at Cruise. So before I turn the call over to Paul, I want to encourage all of you to join our Investor Day on November 17. We plan to use this time to go deeper into the second phase of our EV growth strategy. Phase 1 was focused on technology innovation, specifically the development of our proprietary Ultium and Ultifi platforms. Phase 2 is the rapid scaling of our product portfolio based on Ultium and Ultifi while leveraging ICE vehicles to maintain strong margins. And in Phase 3, we'll drive rapid revenue and margin growth across the entire ecosystem through software-defined vehicles, crews, and other initiatives to create a flat-wheel effect. Phase 2 has already begun and Mark Reuss, Doug Parks, Travis Katz, Paul and I will show you how it accelerates through 2025. We will include KPIs to help you track our EV progress, including margin improvement. Then in the first half of 2023, we are planning a deep dive into our software-defined vehicle strategy to show you how we will leverage Ultifi to help expand revenue and margin. We also plan to share new details about the expansion of Super Cruise, the launch of Ultra Cruise, and other high-return technology initiatives. Both events are going to be exciting and compelling. With that said, I'll turn the call over to Paul. Thank you.

Thank you, Mary, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the time to join us. We've stressed that this year is about executing. In the beginning of the year, we highlighted $5 billion of inflation impact on the business, but set out to perform at or near the record levels that we achieved in 2021. Now that we are more than three-quarters of the way through the year, I'm extremely proud of the progress that our global team has made. We remain well on our way to achieving the commitments we outlined in February. Volumes were up 80% year-over-year as we successfully completed and shipped nearly 75% of the vehicles built without certain components held in company inventory at the end of Q2. This tailwind was partially offset by logistical challenges we have seen, particularly from Mexico, which has impacted our ability to recognize revenue on certain in-transit vehicles, along with some spot plant downtime. Overall, parts availability and supply chain issues continue to slowly trend in the right direction, with the team working tirelessly to navigate the dynamic environment. As a result, we remain on track to increase full year 2022 wholesales by 25% to 30% year-over-year and delivered North American EBIT margins of 10%. Q3 revenue of $41.9 billion was a record for the company. We achieved $4.3 billion in EBIT-adjusted, 10.2% EBIT-adjusted margins, and $2.25 in EPS diluted adjusted. We generated $4.6 billion in cash flow during the quarter and continue to expect $7 billion to $9 billion cash flow for the full year. Our strong cash generation allows us to continue investing in our future while at the same time returning cash to shareholders. The confidence in our longer-term outlook informed the Board's decision in August to reinstate a corporate dividend and increase our share repurchase authorization to $5 billion. During the quarter, we bought back $1.5 billion of stock, retiring 38 million shares. North America delivered Q3 EBIT adjusted of $3.9 billion, up $1.8 billion year-over-year, and EBIT-adjusted margins of 11.2%, primarily driven by higher volume and pricing, partially offset by higher commodity costs, as well as investments in growth. Q3 EBIT was positively impacted by the completion of a substantial amount of the vehicles that we built without certain components, which we said last quarter were primarily full-size trucks and SUVs. As production improves, we're closely monitoring dealer stock and inventory turns to appropriately match supply with demand. The number of vehicles physically on dealer lots is well below historical levels and continues to be tight at around 20 days. Importantly, demand remained strong for our highest margin projects with very fast turn rates. These included HD pickups, like the Sierra, which is turning in about 10 days, and our full-size SUVs are turning even faster. Total dealer stock, including in-transit vehicles, increased due to a combination of higher production, clearing out the portion of company inventory, and logistical challenges that have lengthened the time vehicles take to arrive at dealers. Pricing in Q3 was favorable versus Q2 and well above Q3 last year. Costs were up year-over-year, primarily due to increased commodity and logistics expenses; engineering, software development costs; and the absence of a favorable Bolt recovery in the third quarter last year. GM International delivered third quarter EBIT adjusted of $300 million, up $100 million year-over-year, as the team continued to navigate a volatile and dynamic environment. This included $300 million of equity income in China, up slightly year-over-year, as production levels have continued to improve from COVID-related impacts earlier in the year. EBIT-adjusted in GMI, excluding China equity income was breakeven, also up slightly year-over-year with results driven by favorable pricing and volume, partially offset by the same mix and commodity costs. Year-to-date EBIT adjusted is $400 million, reflecting the tremendous work the team has done over the last several years to strengthen this business. GM Financial once again delivered strong results with Q3 EBIT adjusted of $900 million, down $200 million year-over-year, primarily due to lower net leased vehicle income. Overall, GM Financial's balance sheet and credit metrics remain healthy, reflecting the strong underlying credit quality of the portfolio. Although moderating off historically strong levels, net charge-offs remain below pre-pandemic levels as credit mix has shifted towards prime customers. Corporate expenses were $350 million in the quarter, up $100 million year-over-year, primarily driven by growth initiatives. Corporate also included $100 million gain relating to the disposition of our Stellantis warrants, which we exercised in Q3 when the lockup period expired and resulted in approximately $1.1 billion of cash proceeds. Cruise expenses were $500 million in the quarter, up $200 million year-over-year, driven mainly by modifications to share-based awards, resulting in an accounting change in compensation expense. Now let me provide a few forward-looking comments. We continue to track to the midpoint of the $13 billion to $15 billion EBIT-adjusted range we laid out at the beginning of the year. Year-to-date, we're at $10.7 billion EBIT adjusted, which implies Q4 EBIT adjusted in the low $3 billion range. Slightly higher wholesale volumes from completing the remaining vehicles held at company inventory are expected to be more than offset by a normalizing mix, launch-related costs, and typical seasonality we see in Q4. We estimate commodity and logistics costs to be around $5 billion headwind year-over-year, consistent with prior expectations. Earlier in the year, raw materials were driving around two-thirds of this $5 billion increase. They have come down and are now closer to half, but this benefit has been offset by other costs such as logistics and supplier claims. We're working collaboratively with our suppliers to jointly identify efficiencies to help mitigate these headwinds. As we move into 2023, we continue to see the dynamics between commodities and pricing as a natural hedge that should trend in similar directions, helping to maintain the earnings power of the company. We also continue to see strong demand for our products, and we'll remain thoughtful in our approach to pricing. We've been agile through this volatile environment over the last couple of years. And as we said last quarter, we're already taking proactive steps to manage costs and cash flows, including reducing some discretionary spending and limiting hiring for critical needs and positions that support growth. In summary, we continue to execute on our near-term financial goals. But more importantly, we're making great progress on the milestones we shared last year. And we will have the opportunity to update you at our Investor Day in New York on November 17. This concludes our opening comments. We'll now move to the Q&A portion of the call.

Good morning, guys. And thanks for all the detail. Just a first question around inventory, and I'll promise to state a one follow-up to this. I mean, if we think about 359,000 of units on dealer lots right now, you're saying that's about 20 days supply. I mean, just curious how you think about governing that going forward, so you maintain this very strong price environment, which is driving record profitability. I'm just trying to make sure we stay at tight levels. And how do you think about staying tight to support pricing.

So, Mary, I’ll take…

Yeah. Go ahead, Paul.

Apologies. Well, thanks for that question, John. So we're watching this very, very closely as we've said, looking at dealer turn times, looking at grounded stock. As we've talked about, logistics remain a bit of a challenge for us, whether it's vehicles that are completed, waiting transit to dealers, or even some vehicles that we've had some challenges getting across the next quarter from our facilities down there. So a lot of this inventory still is in transit. The grounded inventory, we continue to speak to our dealers. They say demand is really strong, and many dealers are saying that the only time vehicles sit there is when a buyer opts out of a transaction they already had. And it's not very long before they go through their list and find somebody to purchase them. So this is something that we're watching very closely. I think there's a little bit of a surge right now as we complete the vehicles that were partially built at the end of June. But we watch this. We're seeing no signs of concern in the short run.

Okay. Just to follow up on tightness, during the quarter, I believe cap utilization in North America was 103.3% with two shifts of straight time, which implies a capacity of about 3.1 million units. If we compare this to a relatively normal period in the third quarter of 2020, when cap utilization was at 112% and your GM&A EBIT margins were at 15%, this quarter's margins were over 11%. As you consider ramping up that capacity utilization curve, Mary, you have significant experience in this area. Do you think there is potential for margin improvement, all else being equal, as volumes recover and capacity utilization increases? At what point does that trend begin to reverse? Would it be at 110%, 115%, or 120% capacity utilization? Additionally, would you consider adding more capacity to mitigate that backward bend?

Overall, we plan to stay disciplined. I see an opportunity to achieve strong margins, especially with our full-size truck mix, which consumers are increasingly favoring. We believe this trend will extend to electric vehicles as well. As we advance with our EV launches and get our battery plants up and running at scale while making improvements, we anticipate achieving another level of strong margins. Additionally, there's potential from a software perspective. Beyond traditional vehicle sales, our work with CarBravo and growth in areas like GM Defense, BrightDrop, and Cruise presents significant margin opportunities for the company. We will strive to be as disciplined as possible, while also being responsive to the competitive landscape. However, we have gained valuable insights over the past couple of years on enhancing our efficiency together with dealers and ensuring effective customer service.

Okay. Thank you very much, guys.

Thank you very much. Good morning everyone. Mary or Paul, could you provide some additional details about what's happening with the battery factories? It seems there might be a slight delay. Is this related to the timing of equipment arriving or some extra steps needed to ensure quality? I would appreciate any further insights you can share.

Sure, Joe. Well, one, I think we had a very aggressive launch plan when we started to build the plant. Let's step back and recognize that the Ohio plant is the size of 30 football fields, and it will employ over 1,000 people. Making sure we had all our people there and trained has taken a little longer than expected. Also, this is the first facility that we're working with LGES, and we're working together effectively to really leverage not only the expertise that LGES has but what GM brings. And so there's no one thing, but it has just taken a little longer to make sure that we're able to produce with quality. I'm very confident in the team and how they're working together. And I think we're in that ramp, but because it's taken a little bit longer. Also from the battery pack assembly as well, both of those, as we've ramped up are taking a little bit longer. And that's why instead of hitting the 400,000 mark at the end of 2023, it's going to seep into 2024. But with everything that we're learning, it gives me great confidence that we're going to be able to start plant two, three, and beyond on time. And I have greater confidence in our ability to scale to the 1 million units of annual EV capacity in 2025 in the US and similarly in China. So it really is just that first plant up and going, recognize the size and complexity of it. But I'm really proud of the team of where they're at right now.

Okay. Thanks for that. And maybe somewhat related, but Paul, I know CapEx was sort of reiterated at $9 billion to $10 billion for the year. You're trending well below that through nine months. So is that still correct? I mean, is there any incentive to push some of that to next year because of maybe some of the policy changes? And also, I guess, with the policy changes, any thoughts on if that $9 billion to $10 billion is still the right rate for the next couple of years, or are you actually incentivized to maybe try to accelerate some of that now?

Well, Joe, I think when you look at our historical spend rates, we tend to have CapEx that it's a little bit back-loaded from that standpoint. And I think we're still on track for the $9 billion to $10 billion going forward this year. As we look at the future years, obviously, we've had some pretty steep acceleration in EV volumes, etc. And we'll provide some more updates at Investor Day. But I think we're well within our ability to fund our expansion, our transformation through internally generated funds when you look at the health of the business. And I think when you look at cash balance, when you look at cash flows, when you look at our ability to repurchase some shares during the quarter, that signals our confidence about being able to balance the spending, be aggressive where we can, as you've seen us over the last couple of years, but also keep that balanced within our means. And you're going to continue to see that from us.

Thanks very much.

Good morning. Wanted to ask first, Mary. I overheard you say in an interview this morning that GM is well positioned for the IRA. I was hoping you can give us maybe some color on the magnitude of the North America content and critical mineral sourcing or the manufacturing credits as you look out to next year? And related to this, your original margin targets sort of mid-term and long-term, the 10% and 12% were pre-IRA. And I'm curious, if you have any thoughts on whether this could be accretive to that.

Sure. Well, just to maybe touch on that last point. We believe we are very well positioned. And we think we're waiting for the treasury rules to be finalized, but we think it will accomplish. So it positions us with our strong EV portfolio covering the important segments to really drive affordability to spur adoption. So overall, we feel very well positioned. But if you look at it right now, over the 10-year life cycle of the credit, we will offer a number of models in the segments and price ranges that will be eligible for the full $7,500 credit. And for us, many of these are going to be high-volume entries. We do think some of the vehicles will be eligible for the $3,750 credits starting in January, and then we'll ramp toward full qualification across the broad portfolio in two to three years as some of the different supply comes online in North America or in the United States. We also think there's a significant opportunity to potentially leverage the tax credit of up to $45 per kilowatt hour with respect to battery cells and battery modules produced in the US. So that's another opportunity where, again, I think we're better positioned than most because of our aggressive plan to get the battery plants and the pack assembly in this country. And then, we do think we see an opportunity for our suppliers to leverage a tax credit for up to 10% of the cost of the US source battery electrode active materials, starting in January of next year. So that's just a little bit more color. Again, we're waiting for the final rules from treasury, but I think you can see this will really go a long way to helping us drive affordable EVs and drive our profitability while even hitting some of the lower MSRPs.

Thanks, Mary. That's helpful. And Paul, on your last call, you mentioned that the next recession would be characterized by risk to pricing as opposed to volume. I mean, since then, rates have obviously gone up and trade-in values have moderated. And even though you have a lot of in-transit inventory, it looks like the aggregate inventory is probably climbing in the 50 to 60-day range. I was hoping maybe that you can give us a little bit of additional color on how you see that playing out? Whether you think we shift from supply constraints to demand constraints or any color on this commodity hedge that you mentioned during your prepared remarks?

Yes, thanks, Rod. We've noticed some increases in inventory, which isn't unexpected. We wholesaled about 1 million vehicles during the quarter, indicating we're both producing and clearing out the vehicles that were unfinished in June. We are currently addressing this situation. It's too early to draw any conclusions about trends, but we are aware of significant pent-up demand from the past couple of years, reflected in MSRPs and turn rates. We are monitoring this situation closely, but I haven't reached any conclusions regarding any softening or changes in demand. When looking at dealer statistics and GMF, there's still a strong interest in our vehicles, especially full-size trucks and SUVs.

Thanks. Can you provide any details on the commodity hedge you mentioned? Have you completed your steel negotiations? Do you have an estimate of the size of that offset?

Yes, nothing specific today, Rod. I mean, keep in mind that obviously, when you look across all of the commodities, they've come off their highs, which will benefit some tailwind next year. As it relates to steel, remember, we've got a portfolio approach where some is on spot rate, some are on term contracts. We benefited from that as steel was spiking over the last couple of years, but you'll see some lag, particularly in steel from some of those multiyear contracts, which is fine over the long term. But it won't provide as big of a tailwind next otherwise would. So we'll get more detail on that as we give full year 2023 guidance later, but nothing specific now.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and congratulations on the results. Paul, following up on your last point, it seems you believe that pricing, after accounting for commodities, can remain stable or neutral into next year. Could you please elaborate on that comment from your prepared remarks? Additionally, could you share your thoughts on the opportunities you see with the HD trucks and the midsized trucks that are set to launch next year? It appears that there could be some pricing opportunities for the company in that area as well.

Good morning, Itay. I didn't specifically say that it would be flat; I mentioned that there would be some changes moving forward. We are aware of some pressure expected next year due to pension accounting. Although the funded status remains unchanged, the differing rate environment is likely to present challenges for our pension plans. We will have more clarity as rates stabilize at the end of the year, and this could exceed $1 billion. There are no changes to cash or funding, just the mechanics of how it operates. We are monitoring the situation closely, which is why we are taking a measured approach to all these issues moving forward. We will provide further details with our full-year guidance. Additionally, the launches of the new heavy-duty trucks are generating a lot of interest, and we are seeing strong demand as we introduce them, both in SUVs and light-duty pickups. We expect customer demand to remain high as they seek these vehicles. Therefore, there is some positive news on the horizon. However, we must also consider the challenges others are facing, even if we are not experiencing them directly, which is why we are maintaining a cautious approach. Our primary focus is on daily execution, and I believe this quarter showcases the team's ability to achieve that.

That's very helpful. And maybe a follow-up for Mary and Kyle. Any update on when we should see the deployment of the Cruise Origin next year? Is that more first half or second half? And then, Kyle, when those Origins are deployed, what's your targeted ODD in San Francisco at that time?

Kyle, do you want to take that?

Sure. No problem. So to begin with, one of the things we did just recently is we started operating the Cruise Origin on the streets of San Francisco, but being driven manually for data collection. And so that's another milestone as we ramp towards production for that vehicle, volume production next year. When we deploy initially, the ODD will probably look similar to what we're doing with our Bolts, but we're going to announce that a little later as we get closer to the deployment date for that vehicle.

Okay. That’s very helpful. Thank you.

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to ask on commodity costs. I realize it's a complicated equation with buy-ins deal in advance, compensating suppliers in the lag, some hedging. But just straight lining the latest spot prices through the end of 2023 would suggest to me a sizable tailwind next year. So, have you done any work to try to dimension this tailwind and maybe how it might compare in magnitude to any headwind you expect to face from higher non-commodity supply chain costs, such as energy, logistics, labor or other costs?

Hey, Ryan, again, I want to avoid getting into any specific commentary about 2023 guidance from that standpoint. Obviously, we are watching not just commodities, but logistics, container rates. Just overall, there's a lot of things that are moving around and changing and evolving. So if we see slowdowns in the economy, not only would we expect commodity rates to come down further, we'd expect freight rates to come down as well. We probably spend less on expedited premium freights that we've been spending because the supply chain could normalize a little bit. But those are the things that we're working through in the budget. So what I'd ask is, give us time to go through that, take our Board through that. And we'll let you know as soon as we pull it all together for a plan in 2023.

Okay. Thanks. And then just lastly, is there any color you can provide on potential settlements with suppliers to compensate them for premium non-commodity supply chain costs? Ford called this out as a $1 billion headwind during this quarter versus I didn't see anything in your release along those lines. I'm curious if you're taking a similar approach to settle more quickly, or maybe expect to spread these payments over several quarters, or just any thoughts you might be able to provide on how these negotiations with suppliers are progressing amidst the higher inflation environment and impact on GM going forward?

Yes, sure. I won't discuss specific discussions with our suppliers. As mentioned in the prepared remarks, we have been focusing on this, along with commodity prices, as part of the $5 billion year-over-year pressure we've anticipated. We've been addressing this all year, so the supplier situation isn't new to us or surprising. It is taking a slightly larger percentage of that budget than before. However, I believe we are managing this situation effectively by working proactively with our suppliers to meet both their needs and ours, along with the commitments we've made to investors. We won't get into specifics, but we've accounted for this in our budgeting and planning, and we expected what we have seen. This all reflects the quality of the guidance we've provided throughout the year.

Great. Thank you.

I guess, good morning and thank you very much for taking the questions. The first one is on mix, and the company spoke to some mix normalization in the prepared comments. What do you think is driving that mix normalization? Is it more about what GM has the supply to be able to produce and that broadening out beyond the higher end, or are you seeing any pressure on mix related to what consumers are able to afford given the macroeconomic backdrop?

Nothing from the consumer side. I'd say that comment was really aimed towards the fact that we cleared out the vehicles that had been built without the components at the end of June. We talked about 75% of those being full-size trucks and SUVs. So it stands to reason that with only about 25% of that pool left, you'd see some balance. So it's really more due to production and full-size than it is anything on the consumer side.

That's helpful. And my follow-up is on Cruise. And as Cruise is entering the scaling-out phase, and Kyle, thanks for all updates you shared on the progress Cruise is making, are you guys able to share any more color on how investors should expect investment levels accrues to trend going forward in order to support that ramp-up relative to the current level of investment? Thanks.

Kyle, I don't know if you want to comment. I mean, I'll just say, we roughly see it slightly higher than 2022 levels, and that's what we're building into the plan. Okay? Anything else, Mark?

Thank you.

Thanks. I just had a follow-up on Cruise. Again, thinking quarterly, cash consumption was $0.5 billion this quarter, rolling out though into two new cities by the end of the year, further expansion. I just want to confirm, Mary, that if we kind of continue that quarterly run rate of 0.5, maybe increase it slightly, but not dramatically. Is that a fair assumption from here?

I think, yes, that's a fair assumption. And then remember, as we start to scale, we do have a line of credit for the vehicles from GM Financial.

Thanks, Mary. I'd like to follow up on GM Financial. While delinquencies have increased slightly, they remain low at 2.5%, and net charge-offs are below pre-pandemic levels. I'm interested in your thoughts on the credit outlook for GM Financial. What adjustments are you making to your portfolio in anticipation of further rate increases and their potential impact on portfolio performance? I understand this is an unusual environment due to the significant amount of business that has been order-booked. However, please correct me if I'm mistaken; it seems like you are shifting more towards a just-in-time market model that we're familiar with. There are still some order books in play, so I would appreciate any insights you can share regarding what you're hearing from the dealers on the credit side. Thank you.

Hi. Yes, Adam, this is Dan Berce. Yes, first of all, as you point out, our credit metrics are really still quite strong. Pre-pandemic, our net losses ran in the 1.5% range. So they're less than half of that now at 70 basis points. For several years running now, our portfolio is skewed more and more to prime consumers, and that's defined as 680-plus FICOs. In fact, recent vintages have been 80% prime, and our whole portfolio now is 72% prime. It's also heavily new car finance related, which typically has been a stronger credit profile. Prime consumers, period, typically have a stronger balance sheet buffer, better income levels, and historically have been more resilient in weaker economic times. As I said last quarter, to your question, our new car portfolio continues to perform substantially better than pre-pandemic levels. Our used car non-prime book is showing more normalization. And as always, we always look for targeted ways to improve our underwriting, and now is no exception. So that would be the area of most focused, the used car non-prime book. That all being said, we overall expect some normalization in credit, especially with weaker economic conditions. But our reserve levels already contemplate that. And from a dealer standpoint, the through-the-door application flow really doesn't look different now with the on-the-run buyers as opposed to order book buyers. We haven't really seen any difference at the dealer level at all.

Really appreciate that color. Thank you.

Thank you, very much and good morning. First, a quick follow-up on the delay in the battery ramp-up. Can you please remind us which of the EV models were going to basically use cells from these plants you're ramping up? And therefore, we'll see some sort of delay in their volume ramp up? And, I guess, more broadly, how are you going to prioritize cell allocation over the next, call it, 18 months or so, when you're a bit more constrained than maybe expected?

Yes, Emmanuel. So because of the Ultium platform, we really have a lot of flexibility. So the cells coming from Ultium, which are now in production, will be flowing first to support HUMMER production. And we have over 90,000 orders there. And then LYRIQ, which we have really strong interest in both, the two model years were already sold out for the availables and we have strong interest. But then as we get into next year, they'll be spread across also Silverado, Blazer, and Equinox EVs for Chevrolet and some of our other models. So we will allocate them across all of those somewhat based on demand and as each of those plants ramp. And we'll make that somewhat dynamically as we go next year, but we'll spread them across all of those vehicles. And again, this is just a slight shift in the acceleration as we get into 2024, because we'll have a plant coming online next year and the following year, you're going to see a steeper ramp. And that's what gives me great confidence in getting to the million units by 2025.

Okay. Thanks for the color. And then, the follow-up was, if you could put a finer point on some of the demand trends you're seeing sort of real time, both in the US and China, if possible.

I think we've covered most of this. I'll start, Paul, and then if you want to add anything. I mean, again, we're still seeing very strong demand. I think what's specific to GM is we have a very strong truck portfolio. If you look at what we have right now, we've refreshed the light-duty trucks. We have now not only the heavy duties coming out early next year, but we also have an all-new midsize truck. So I think that puts us in a very strong position with trucks. Regardless of what the environment is, I think we're going to have a very strong offering from a customer perspective and choice across the full range of those vehicles. We are still seeing strong ATPs, but we're watching carefully to see if and when they moderate, also balancing against incentives. We're going to continue, we think, to see some semiconductor challenges and, I'll say, overall challenges from the supply base. It's still very tight when you look at how long we've been running at that. Even a small hiccup usually has an impact. And so we're going to continue to work those issues, but we see that improving as well. So I think the big thing that we're looking at is what will demand be. There's still a lot of different predictions on what the economic situation will be. But I think, overall, from where we are from a low inventory perspective, strong product offering. And I think we're well positioned to manage through it. I don't know, Paul, if you want to add anything.

Yes, Mary, I'll just add that we're still very much in a production-constrained world as an industry against where demand is. And as we look to 2023, we've said publicly that we're kind of planning for a 15 million SAAR year, which is kind of below where most people peg demand, but it's actually of where actuals have been for most of the year, given some of those supply constraints. So I think everything Mary said is absolutely true. We're watching it very closely. We are planning for some tightness next year, but that's because we want to be on the proper side. We don't want to get surprised if we see that trending lower. So hopefully, demand remains strong going into 2023, and we can outperform the expectations that we're putting on paper right now. But that's 2023.

And then in China and the new ones there?

In China, we have begun offering the LYRIQ since September, and we will soon introduce the Buick Ultium-based product. These are two crucial brands for us in the Chinese market. We expect to maintain strong sales of the Hong Guang MINI EV. The key opportunity for us in China is to expand our electric vehicle portfolio with the products we now have, while also keeping our costs in check. We will monitor the economic situation in the country closely. Our EV portfolio is strong, and I am proud of the team's efforts amidst the challenges they are facing, particularly related to the ongoing COVID situation.

Great. Thank you.

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Any color on pricing? I mean any color? Has it improved sequentially? I know that year-over-year, it's still quite a big tailwind. And should we expect it to stay strong? It just feels like there's an awful lot of headwinds out there. Rates are rising. Used car prices are falling. And I know you highlighted demand is strong, but a lot of the market data is a little cautionary. I think some of the dealers are saying pre-sold vehicles are sort of back to normal levels with the very few left, and inventory has ticked up and sales really haven't moved yet, which you would think the demand was there. So should we think pricing is going to have to move for you in the industry to kind of keep the demand flowing?

Colin, I’ll give it a try, and Mary, feel free to add anything. This really comes down to the question of how much pent-up demand exists, which isn't something we can precisely predict over time. Our main focus is on the trends moving forward and how we manage them, as we've done throughout this year. The customer has shown remarkable resilience, which reflects the quality of our products and what customers are seeking. I don't anticipate that aspect changing. The industry may stabilize, but I don't expect significant increases in production in the near future. Depending on how the pent-up demand develops, that could impact inventory levels. However, what we’re hearing from others in the industry highlights the lessons learned about inventory management over the past couple of years, and we have noted some of those. Even if we expect slight softness in 2023, particularly regarding SAAR, we don’t see it leading to a major upheaval.

Got it. Following up on the questions regarding the IRA, I believe you mentioned that there's potential to receive the full $7,500 over ten years. Initially, do you anticipate being able to secure $3,750 for the battery component? I was uncertain whether the $7,500 includes commercial credits or if it's solely for retail buyers. It seems that sourcing may pose the greatest challenge.

Yes. We believe that initially we will qualify for the $3,750, and we anticipate achieving full qualification in the next two to three years, reaching the $7,500. This positions us well to receive the complete credit from the consumer standpoint. The $7,500 credit is available over ten years, but it will take a few years to ramp up based on our expectations regarding supply chain adjustments that we have already implemented. Additionally, we plan to take advantage of the tax credit of up to $45 per kilowatt hour for battery cells and modules produced in the United States. We feel confident in our position there. The commercial incentives will also be significant, particularly concerning BrightDrop, our fleet, and the rental car segment. These are just some of the opportunities we believe we are well positioned for, and in fact, we feel we are in a better position than most.

Great. Thanks for taking my question.

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Just at a high level, the sequential walk to the full year adjusted EBIT midpoint of $14 billion, just curious if you could provide the major puts and takes to get to the midpoint. Obviously, it would be a sequential decline in the fourth quarter relative to a very strong third quarter. Yes, just any color there would be great.

Paul, do you want to take that?

Yes, sure. So, I would say, it starts with the wholesale, obviously, we had a really strong quarter as not only did we able to produce, but we also cleared out 75% of that. So it was a little bit front-weighted. If you recall back in the June quarter call, we talked about being 50-50 of clearing those out. So there's nothing sequentially different about the business that we're talking about. But I would expect that we cut wholesale a little bit just off of the fact that we cleared out the majority of those vehicles from June.

Okay. And just on that, in terms of the 25% to 30% wholesales growth, is there a bias towards the lower half of that range based on how supply chains are shaping up and how the third quarter came in, or how should we think about that?

Yes. I don't have specific commentary on that range. As Mary mentioned, while the chip and logistics environment is generally improving, we are still facing some short-term impacts that we continually manage. The team is doing well in addressing these challenges, but I wouldn't want to be more specific than the 25% to 30%.

Thanks, guys.

Well, thank you, Madison. And I just have a couple of comments to close the call. First and foremost, I hope everyone is hearing that the entire team is focused on meeting our commitments and just driving results that support the rapid scaling of our EV business and driving continued strong margins. I think over the last two years especially, we've demonstrated resiliency and the ability to manage headwinds, many times that have even been stronger than we've seen in the past. And going forward, we'll continue to show that agility and resiliency and adjust whenever we need to do what we need to do to stay on track. And so I'm very confident of our transformation that's underway, and I think next year is a big year for us. You'll hear at our Investor Day in November much more about the EV strategy, including the KPIs. So I hope you will attend. And Paul, Kyle, Dan, and I thank you for the questions today, and we look forward to seeing many of you there, and again, couldn't be more committed to where we are, clearly in execution mode from a GM perspective with our EV/AV strategy. So thank you, everyone. Have a good day.