Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) — Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Welcome to Marathon Petroleum Corporation's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. The slides that accompany this call can be found on our website at marathonpetroleum.com under the Investor tab. Joining me today on the call are Maryann Mannen, CEO; John Quaid, CFO; and other members of the executive team. We invite you to read the safe harbor statements on Slide 2. We will be making forward-looking statements today. Actual results may differ. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included there as well as in our filings with the SEC. With that, I'll turn the call over to Maryann.

Thanks, Kristina, and good morning, everyone. We remain committed to peer-leading operational excellence, commercial performance, and profitability per barrel in each of the regions in which we operate, while being steadfast in our commitments to safely and reliably operate our assets and protect the health and safety of our employees. The global macro environment continues to exhibit refined product demand growth, and we expect 2024 will be another year of record refined product consumption. Within our domestic and export businesses, we have seen steady year-over-year demand for gasoline and diesel and growth in demand for jet fuels. Refining margins were volatile in the third quarter as the market digested the implications of a light turnaround season, less seasonal supply interruptions than anticipated and the uncertainties around global economic growth, particularly the pace within China. By leveraging our fully integrated refining system and geographic diversification across the Gulf Coast, Mid-Con and West Coast regions our portfolio of assets is well positioned to perform in this dynamic market environment. Beyond 2024, we expect demand growth to exceed the net impact of capacity additions and rationalizations through the end of the decade. These fundamentals support an enhanced mid-cycle environment for refining. The availability of low-cost energy, the complexity of our facilities and our domestic and international logistical capabilities further increase our global competitive advantage. The U.S. refining industry will remain structurally advantaged over the rest of the world. Operational excellence and commercial execution have driven sustainable structural benefits. Our disciplined long-term strategic and quick-hit investments are allocated to projects that we believe will achieve attractive returns. These projects are expected to strengthen our competitiveness and position MPC well into the future. We believe prioritization of these capabilities will ensure that our assets will remain the most competitive in each region in which we operate, positioning us to deliver the strongest through-cycle cash generation and lead in capital allocation. In Midstream, MPLX continues to execute attractive growth opportunities anchored in the Permian and Marcellus basins. In the third quarter, MPLX began operations at Preakness II, a gas processing plant located in the Permian Basin and today announced an additional processing plant in the Northeast. The Harmon Creek III project will bring Northeast gas processing capacity to 8.1 billion cubic feet per day and fractionation capacity to 800,000 barrels per day once completed in the second half of 2026. Executing its wellhead-to-water strategy, MPLX progressed its natural gas and NGL pipeline projects including the capacity expansion of the BANGL natural gas liquids pipeline and Blackcomb natural gas pipeline in collaboration with its partners. MPLX is strategic to MPC's portfolio, and therefore, its value proposition. Our Midstream segment, which is primarily comprised of MPLX, has grown its adjusted EBITDA by over 6% on a 3-year annual compound basis through 2023. This growth and the durability of its cash flow profile supported a 12.5% increase to its quarterly distribution increasing the expected annual cash distribution to MPC to $2.5 billion. As MPLX is able to grow its distribution, the cash flow MPC receives is expected to fully cover MPC's dividend and all of our capital programs in 2025. MPLX's growing portfolio and financial flexibility are expected to support this level of annual distribution increases in the future, strengthening the value proposition to MPC. MPC's total capital return since May 2021 has reduced MPC's share count by over 50% and following last week's announced 10% increase to MPC's dividends. Over the past three years, we have grown our quarterly dividend at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6%. We announced an additional $5 billion share repurchase authorization. This will provide us flexibility to execute our peer-leading capital return commitment. Given our highly advantaged refining business and the $2.5 billion annualized distribution from MPLX, we are positioned to lead peers in capital returns through all parts of the cycle. MPC generated third quarter earnings per share of $1.87. This quarter, we delivered refining utilization at 94%, reflecting our operational excellence and value chain optimization. Utilization in the West Coast and Mid-Con regions was in the upper 90s, demonstrating strong reliability. Utilization in the U.S. Gulf Coast region reflected execution of turnaround activity. The team executed to deliver a capture of 96%, reflecting strong commercial performance in a volatile market. Our capture improved by 2%, exceeding the rate of improvement achieved by our closest peers. This performance drove R&M segment adjusted EBITDA of $3.82 per barrel and cash from operations, excluding the impacts of working capital of $1.9 billion. And in the third quarter, we continue to lead our peers in capital return. The capabilities we have built provide a sustainable advantage, and we expect to continue to see the impact on our quarterly results. Let me turn the call over to John.

Thanks, Maryann. Slide 5 shows the sequential change in adjusted EBITDA from the second to third quarter 2024 as well as the reconciliation between net income and adjusted EBITDA for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was lower sequentially by approximately $900 million, driven by decreased results in our Refining and Marketing segment. The tax rate for the quarter was 10%, reflecting the earnings mix between our R&M and Midstream businesses. Moving to our segment results. Slide 6 provides an overview of our Refining & Marketing segment for the third quarter. Lower crack spreads reduced per barrel margin sequentially, our refineries ran at 94% utilization, processing nearly 2.8 million barrels of crude per day. Refining operating costs were $5.30 per barrel in the third quarter, higher sequentially primarily due to lower throughputs and higher project-related expenses associated with increased turnaround activity. Slide 7 provides an overview of our Refining and Marketing margin capture of 96% for the quarter, an improvement of 2% from the second quarter. The improvement was primarily driven by our operational and commercial team's execution of value-driven secondary product strategies as prices strengthened relative to gasoline quarter-over-quarter. This was partially offset by clean product margins declining sequentially, and we also continued to see headwinds from our renewals business during the quarter. Slide 8 shows our Midstream segment performance for the quarter. Our Midstream segment continues to deliver cash flow growth. Segment adjusted EBITDA was flat sequentially but increased approximately 6% year-over-year, primarily due to higher throughputs and rates. MPLX remains a source of durable earnings growth as it advances projects targeted to enhance our natural gas and NGL value chains. Slide 9 presents the elements of change in our consolidated cash position for the third quarter. Operating cash flow, excluding changes in working capital, was $1.9 billion in the quarter, driven by both our refining and midstream businesses. Working capital was a $179 million use of cash for the quarter, primarily driven by decreases in crude prices. This quarter, capital expenditures, investments, and acquisitions were $922 million, including $210 million for MPLX's acquisition of an additional 20% interest in the BANGL pipeline. MPC utilized cash to repay $750 million of debt due in the quarter, which we plan to refinance. MPC returned $2.7 billion through share repurchases and $273 million in dividends during the quarter and in October, we repurchased $500 million of MPC shares. At the end of the third quarter, MPC had approximately $5.1 billion in consolidated cash and short-term investments, including MPLX cash of $2.4 billion. Turning to Slide 10. Our capital allocation priorities remain consistent. Our number one priority is sustaining capital. We remain steadfast in our commitment to safely operate our assets and protect the health and safety of our employees and the communities in which we operate. We are committed to paying a secure, competitive, and growing dividend. We will invest where we believe there are attractive returns, which will enhance our competitiveness and position MPC well into the future. After meeting those requirements, we will return all excess capital through share repurchases even as we approach a more normalized balance sheet. And including the additional $5 billion announced this morning, we currently have $8.5 billion remaining under our share repurchase authorizations, highlighting our commitment to superior shareholder returns. As Maryann highlighted earlier, with our highly advantaged refining business and the $2.5 billion annualized distribution from MPLX, we are positioned to lead peers in capital returns through all market cycles. Turning to guidance on Slide 11. We provide our fourth-quarter outlook. We are projecting crude throughput volumes of just over 2.6 million barrels per day, representing utilization of 90%. Turnaround expense is projected to be approximately $285 million in the fourth quarter with activity focused in the Mid-Con region. Operating costs are projected to be $5.50 per barrel. Distribution costs are expected to be approximately $1.5 billion, and corporate costs are expected to be $200 million in the quarter. In summary, on Slide 13, this quarter, our R&M segment generated $1.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and our Midstream segment delivered $1.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA. We invested $922 million in the business and returned $3 billion of capital. With that, let me pass it back to Maryann.

Thanks, John. We are unwavering in our commitment to safe and reliable operations through operational excellence, commercial execution, and cost competitiveness yields sustainable structural benefits and position us to deliver peer-leading financial performance in each of the regions in which we operate. To deliver this, we will optimize our portfolio to deliver outperformance now and in the future. We'll leverage our value chain advantages and ensure the competitiveness of our assets while continuing to invest in our people. Our execution of these commitments position us to deliver the strongest through-cycle cash generation. Durable midstream growth is expected to deliver cash flow uplift. Investing capital where we believe there are attractive returns will enhance our competitiveness now and for the future. We are committed to leading capital allocation and will return excess capital through share repurchases. MPC is positioned to create exceptional value through peer-leading performance, execution of our strategic commitments, and its compelling value proposition. Let me turn the call back to Kristina.

Thanks, Maryann. Sheila, we are ready.

Good morning, Maryann and team, thanks for the rundown and good quarter here. I thought on the first topic, it would be good to get your perspective on capital returns. As we think about 2024, you've been kind of running to $0.5 billion of buybacks a quarter. As you think about 2025, the forward curve and your view of the enhancement cycle relative to your cash balances, just curious on your perspective on the level for 2025 it seems like $1.5 billion is what most investors are calibrating to and that ties into the $500 million you did in October, but just your perspective on the quarterly run rate of buybacks would be helpful.

First and foremost, we are committed to leading our peers in capital returns through all parts of the cycle, and that means returning all cash after our requirements to shareholders. When we think about mid-cycle, there's no doubt we see volatility. We've seen it in the last quarter and that volatility could continue. But we remain constructive on the long term when we look at the demand profile over the next decade. We look at the net impact, if you will, between capacity additions that are coming online. We don't see anything beyond 2026, and you look at sort of the capacity that is actually coming offline as well. We think over the long term, that remains an extremely constructive environment for us to operate. You mentioned a comment about how we think about share repurchase beyond that period. Look, one of the things that we are trying to achieve is our peer-leading performance in all of the regions we operate. We're going to do that through commercial performance, we're going to do that through our operational excellence. Therefore, we should have the strongest cash flow through the cycle. And when we do that, we should then have the ability to lead our peers in capital allocation. Contributing to that, as I was mentioning in my comments, is the durability of that midstream business. We saw the 12.5% increase in the distribution that we announced a few days ago, and that brings about $2.5 billion to MPC on an annual basis, which covers the MPC dividend, which, as you know, we just increased. And although we haven't given our capital guidance for 2025, it's highly likely it’s going to cover our capital for 2025 as well. So again, just summarizing here, we expect that when we perform in this manner, we will have the strongest through-cycle cash flow and we'll be able to lead our peers in our capital allocation through share repurchase.

Okay, Maryann. The follow-up is about the West Coast, which has been very volatile and challenging in Q3. However, it seems to be improving in Q4, and there was a significant announcement in L.A. regarding retirement. What are your thoughts on the West Coast situation and the various factors involved as we move into the next year?

Yes. Thanks, Neil. First, I think as we've been sharing over the last several quarters, we believe in our West Coast; we have one of the most competitive assets in the region. If you take a look at our performance in this quarter, we think the results on the West Coast demonstrate that. We've got a fairly sophisticated set of assets in that region; it's a region where we have been monitoring for a long period of time. Frankly, if you go back to as early as 2020, we have been assessing the performance in that region and our ability to be profitable. We made a decision at that point in time to shutter the Martinez asset as a traditional fossil fuel refinery. So again, when we look at the capability of that asset, we look at the access waterborne, we look at our crude sourcing, we look at the capability for Canadian coming out of TMX. We think over the long term, those decisions that others are making also bode well for us, and we remain committed to that West Coast region.

Maryann, I apologize for following up on the cash return question. But post-2026 is two years away for a rebalancing of global capacity, let's assume things remain soft on a margin outlook for a period of time, how much tolerance are you prepared to have on your balance sheet at the MPC level to fund your cash returns? I wonder if you could put a limit on where you would allow your balance sheet to get to?

Yes, one of the things we've shared for a period of time is the comfort that we have with our cash balance. And we remain comfortable, as we've shared in the past that about $1 billion is where we think our cash balances need to be on the MPC side. And again, part of that comfort comes from historical experiences as we weathered other events like COVID, et cetera, and liquidity evaluations. Second, as I mentioned, we do have the benefit of our midstream cash flow, that durability of that stream, $2.5 billion coming to MPC. When we think about cash allocation, and therefore, capital allocation, again, we intend to lead in capital allocation as we execute on the things that I mentioned, we should be able to have the strongest performance, peer-leading in each of the regions we operate, generating the strongest cash flow, and then we'll return that cash not necessarily for other requirements via share buyback. So again, while the total may look different, the commitment and the framework that we have been implementing doesn't change as we watch that mid-cycle return.

So just to be clear, where would you like to see your net debt? Is there a limit?

Yes. On the MPC side, we've always talked about being in a range of 25% to 30% debt to capital, and that's a gross number, and we remain comfortable in that position. Today, we're sitting on under $6.5 billion of debt. That's simply because we've got about a $750 million refinance, and we intend to refinance that. We felt like when we looked at the market environment and other volatility happening, it was beneficial for us to evaluate that. So that $750 million is intended to be refinanced, it was a shorter-term decision as we look for opportunities to put that debt back on the balance sheet at their rates.

Thanks for the clarification, Maryann. I guess my follow-up is related to your prepared remarks. I don't think I've heard you say this before, so I wonder if I could ask you to elaborate. We will optimize our portfolio to obviously maximize returns. It sounds like under your leadership, there's a portfolio review underway? Is there something that you're not happy with in the asset base? And I guess specifically, you still have an additional amount of equity interest in multiple pipelines, I guess could potentially be monetized. So I wonder if you could just elaborate on what you meant by optimize our portfolio.

Yes. Certainly, Doug. No, nothing different. One of our strategic pillars for a long time is ensuring the competitive nature of all of the assets in our portfolio. And so my comment there is our commitment that we are going to continue to evaluate those assets in the portfolio. Today, all of those assets are cash flow positive. But we'll ensure that the competitive nature of those assets continues both today and in the future. So it is merely our commitment to ensure the competitive nature of our assets, not anything different intended by that comment.

My question is around the capital investment you're making. You've highlighted high-return investments in Los Angeles and Galveston Bay refineries. Can you help us remind exactly what kind of projects you're doing over there? And obviously, to follow up a little bit on Neil's question. Your competitors are looking to shut refineries on the West Coast, and you're actually making an investment in Los Angeles. So help us understand that.

Certainly. I'll begin with the West Coast. Earlier this year, we discussed our investment in our L.A. assets. We believe this investment, which has an approximate 20% return, will help us reduce Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions, enhance operational efficiency, lower costs, and ultimately strengthen our competitive position in that region, as well as ensure compliance with NOx emissions. Considering the strength of our asset on the West Coast and its competitive nature, we view a 20% return as a suitable investment in that area. The other project you mentioned is the DHT in Galveston Bay. We also spoke about this earlier this year as part of our STAR project. This initiative allows us to convert high sulfur diesel into ultra-low sulfur diesel with a similar return in the 20% range. Given the future trends, we believe this will further enhance our competitive edge in the U.S. Gulf Coast, thanks to the strength of our asset there. Let me pause to see if this addresses your question.

No, that's perfect, Maryann. For my follow-up, regarding the midstream side, 12% to 12.5% distribution growth is approaching a point where you can increase MPC distribution while also covering the CapEx. I'm trying to clarify if the opportunities you are considering are solely organic. Your press release indicates you can achieve a 5% EBITDA growth organically, but are you also open to pursuing small bolt-on deals, joint ventures, or minority interests in projects to expand your midstream business?

Thank you for the question. You're correct that we raised the MPLX distribution by 12.5% just a few days ago, driven by the stability of our cash flows. Over the past three years, we've seen EBITDA growth of just under 7% and distributable cash flow growth of just under 8%. We have several organic projects that we believe will drive mid-single-digit growth. It's important to note that while the amount of capital we're investing in MPLX may not reflect it, the strength of our joint ventures contributes significantly. As we expand these joint ventures, their value isn't included in our capital investments, providing another avenue for growth. Regarding our growth strategy, our wellhead-to-water approach exemplifies this. The increase in our BANGL ownership supports our NGL, natural gas, and crude value chains. Our strategy is primarily focused on the Permian Basin, where we see significant opportunities to capture the entire value chain, aligning well with our goal of maintaining mid-single-digit growth for MPLX. We are also considering other bolt-on opportunities. For instance, in the Utica region, we see potential to enhance utilization. We recently completed a transaction to buy out our JV partner there in the first quarter, demonstrating our commitment to pursuing mid-single-digit growth.

Maryann, it looks like in the third quarter, your full utilization is really good, much better than your previous guide, and then your turnaround expenses. Just curious, do you have a breakdown? How much of the better-than-expected throughput is due to better execution of the turnaround? And how much is just the base operation or lesser unplanned downtime than you expected? And also from that standpoint, is the turnaround have you changed the process, how you're doing? In other words, the improvement we see in the third quarter, is that repeatable?

Yes. Thanks for the question, Paul. One of the things that I wanted to be sure that we talk about is our commitment to our operational performance. And you can see, as we've shared our commitment to peer-leading operational performance as well. We talk about commercial performance, giving us sustainable benefits, clearly; our operational performance, including our safe and reliable operations, has given us sustainable benefits as well. I'm going to ask Tim to talk a little bit about the strengths of those capabilities and what it's done, frankly, with respect to our turnaround capabilities.

Hello, Paul. We're routinely in the first quartile of Solomon on the turnaround performance. I think you probably recognized that in the past. And that's really based on our best-in-class procedures and processes that we have. But we're not standing still at all, we're continuing to improve and tweak these processes over time. And what we found really is that when we execute our turnaround outages using this consistent approach, we do so across all of the facilities, and that leads to good results. I'd also point out that our large scale really allows us to assist the smaller plants, which then enables us to achieve consistent performance regardless of the location. So I think that's another key benefit that you're seeing come through. And I’d also like to maybe take the opportunity to give a shout-out to our teams as we had outstanding safety and environmental performance during our four fall turnarounds. So we had like zero OSHA recordables, zero lost-time injuries, no significant environmental events all during these turnarounds this fall. So I think this is just yet another example of our safe and reliable focus and our operational excellence mindset. So hopefully, that helps.

That's great. Maryann, can I ask about the renewable diesel business? I think you are probably not making money in Martinez at least. And if we assume the margin environment remains flat at this level, what is the path to profitability after considering the margin loss due to some BTC transition to PTC? What are you doing that will allow you to bridge the gap and push it back up to making money?

Yes. Thanks for the question, Paul. So on Martinez, first of all, as we have shared, we expect that by the end of the fourth quarter, we will have Martinez returning to full nameplate capacity on plan, right, and that's in the range of about 48,000 barrels a day. When you talk about profitability, actually make a comment here on the West Coast; as we are ramping up, the challenges of profitability are there. If you exclude the impact of Martinez in our West Coast performance, our West Coast performance is actually positive in the quarter. As we go forward, we certainly believe that at full nameplate, we will be profitable, frankly, one of the more profitable renewable diesel facilities. I'm going to pass it to John because I think you had some questions also around BTC, and John is going to take you through that.

Yes, thanks, Maryann. Maryann really covered it well. The primary goal for our Martinez facility, which we are on track to achieve, is to restore it to full capacity while utilizing the advantageous feedstocks available there. Regarding the transition from BTC to PTC and the current expiration, we are still waiting on regulations and will prepare for all possible scenarios. However, we expect that the market will eventually reach a balance. For us to maintain profitability on the West Coast, getting back to full capacity is essential.

Yes, thanks. Maybe a couple of operational questions with some of the changes here. As we look at the West Coast and the changes coming here in, I guess, early '26, but maybe even a little sooner with some sort of unplanned downtime type items. How do you think about the incremental barrels coming to California? We've heard talk about it would be an Asian barrel. Historically, I would have said maybe Gulf Coast or even parts of Europe can bring California spec in, but we've got closures coming in both of those locations. California, though, relative to the rest of your fleet and really the U.S. in general is a pretty expensive place to operate. So what do you think about in terms of an incremental margin as California becomes more dependent and more dependent, excuse me, on an imported barrel?

Roger, it's Rick. I won't speak for our competitors, but looking at what has happened before, we believe it will likely be an Asian barrel. South Korea is a logical choice, and I believe this will introduce new nuances to California. This could lead to increased volatility due to longer transit times and additional transportation costs for bringing in a barrel. Specifically, we think South Korea and Asia will be the main sources for imports.

Yes. Great question, Roger. They are a big buyer of Canadian crudes. And as you know, the Gulf Coast market has a large appetite for it. When you rebalance the market, there will be winners and losers, and I will say that more incremental capacity into the Gulf Coast is a very good thing for the spread, we believe, and we should reap the benefits of that, especially at our Galveston Bay refinery.

So my first question is just on seasonality within capture rates. You're tracking somewhere in the mid-90s on capture year-to-date. And when I look at the past couple of years, there's obviously always some quarter-to-quarter volatility, but that's not out of the ordinary for 1Q through 3Q. But 4Q has historically tended to be a big quarter from a capture perspective. So my question is, do you consider the year-to-date capture to be generally in line with what you would typically expect. And recognizing that there are a lot of moving pieces, but if you have a more kind of seasonally normal 4Q, could we expect the full year to average somewhere around that 100% range?

Yes. John, thanks for your question. I think you know when we talk about capture, we think our commercial performance is a key deliverable particularly as we try to execute to be the most competitive in each region where we operate. To your point, if you look at the last several fourth quarters of our performance, our capture in the fourth quarter has been greater than the capture in the prior three quarters. There is nothing in the fourth quarter of 2024 that would tell us that behavior should be anything different at this point in time.

Great. That's exactly what I was looking for. And the next one is maybe for John. If you could maybe talk a little bit about the potential timing for refinancing of the debt that you took out at the MPC level and what the use of proceeds could be there. Should we think about the 3Q buyback as maybe being held back a bit by that cash outflow and therefore, by the same token, maybe we could expect the proceeds to go back to buyback?

Yes. Thanks for the question, John. I mean, as we discussed before, that was a maturity. We took the advantage of the flexibility of our balance sheet to opportunistically look to refinance that at the right time. We want to get maybe past an election and some other things before we look to do that, but we'll do that at the right time. Again, to the earlier comments, we'll be comfortable with that level of debt as we look out longer term. So again, just trying to leverage some of the flexibility of the balance sheet to get the most optimal cost of that debt and we look to refinance it.

I want to return to the topic of shareholder returns and focus on the minimum cash balance of $1 billion. My question is about the timing of reaching that $1 billion. As we anticipate entering a weaker environment next year, are you considering retaining a bit more cash above that balance so you can use the excess cash for buybacks during a downturn? How are you thinking about the timing of tapping into that funds?

Jason, it's John. I'll address that. When we consider the $1 billion target, we see it as the minimum cash needed during a downturn. We are confident in maintaining that level for several reasons. Throughout the call, we've discussed our strong operational competitiveness across all regions and our initiatives aimed at fostering positive cash flow. Additionally, our significant midstream investment in MPLX is thriving, yielding $2.5 billion in annualized distributions back to MPC. These factors contribute to our comfort with the $1 billion target, which may set us apart from some peers lacking this business structure. I hope that clarifies things.

Yes, it does. The other question just on the quarterly results, you had mentioned that your capture trended better than peers. Just wondering if there's anything specific that drove that, that you could call out in the quarter or if it's something more structural?

This is Rick. I really would have to give a huge shout out to our Specialty Products teams. So oftentimes, Specialty Products is a headwind, but when a market turns it's only as good as your team executing on the market turning. And when I think of some specific commodities that we don't often talk about, when I think of asphalt, pet chems, butane, and propane, we really did a great job. The team was phenomenal at capturing that market when it was there within the quarter. And I really am proud of them, and I truly believe they outperformed our competition. That, I would say, is the largest single call-out.

Great. Thank you so much for joining us on our call today. If you should have follow-up questions, please reach out. The IR team is available all day to help you with your questions. Thank you, everybody.