Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY) — Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Thank you, Rocco. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in Occidental's Third Quarter 2022 Conference Call. On the call with us today are Vicki Hollub, President and Chief Executive Officer; Rob Peterson, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Richard Jackson, President, Operations, U.S. Onshore Resources and Carbon Management. This afternoon, we will refer to slides available on the Investors section of our website. The presentation includes a cautionary statement on Slide 2 regarding forward-looking statements that will be made on the call this afternoon. We'll also reference a few non-GAAP financial measures today. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in the schedules to our earnings release and on our website. I'll now turn the call over to Vicki. Vicki, please go ahead.

Thank you, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. We delivered another strong quarter operationally and financially, enabling us to further advance our shareholder return framework as we made meaningful progress toward completing our $3 billion share repurchase program. We achieved our goal of reducing the face value of our debt to the high teens and plan to continue repaying debt through the remainder of this year before allocating a higher percentage of cash flow to shareholder returns next year. The excellent operational performance of our businesses was a key driver of our strong financial results, including generating the cash flow required to advance our shareholder return framework and further strengthen our balance sheet. OxyChem delivered strong earnings following a record second quarter, while our Gulf of Mexico, International, Rockies, and Permian teams set new operational records. This afternoon, I will cover our third quarter operational performance and the exciting progress our Low Carbon business has made since our investor update in March. Rob will cover our financial results as well as our updated guidance, which includes an increase in full year guidance for all three of our business segments. Our businesses all performed well in the third quarter, enabling us to generate $3.6 billion of free cash flow before working capital, with total company-wide capital spend of approximately $1.1 billion. Our oil and gas business delivered production of nearly 1.2 million BOE per day, exceeding the midpoint of guidance by approximately 25,000 BOE per day. Outperformance from the Rockies and Gulf of Mexico were key drivers of our production exceeding third quarter guidance. The Rockies' success was driven by better-than-expected base production and higher NGL recoveries. In the Gulf of Mexico, we benefited from unseasonably calm weather during most of the third quarter and better-than-expected performance from Horn Mountain West. Our ability to generate substantial free cash flow, even as oil prices declined compared to the previous quarter, positioned us to complete approximately $2.6 billion of our $3 billion share repurchase program through November 7. Over the last 12 months, we have returned approximately $3.21 per share to common shareholders moving us closer to potentially being able to begin redeeming the preferred equity in 2023. We also repaid approximately $1.5 billion of debt in the third quarter and in the period ending November 7. Providing commodity prices remain supportive, we intend to reduce the face value of our debt to approximately $18 billion by the end of this year, meaning that we will have repaid over $10 billion of debt in 2022. As we enter 2023, we expect that our free cash flow allocation will shift significantly towards shareholder returns. We intend to reward shareholders with a sustainable dividend supported by an active repurchase program, continued rebalancing of our enterprise value in favor of common shareholders, and a reduction in our cost of capital as the preferred equity is partially redeemed. Turning to OxyChem and Midstream. Both businesses benefited from supportive market conditions during the third quarter. OxyChem exceeded its guidance since chlor-alkali prices continued to strengthen and the expected softening in the PVC markets did not materialize to the extent that we had forecast. We continue to be highly encouraged by well performance across our portfolio. In the Delaware Basin, we delivered our best quarter to date for early well performance with the 46 wells online averaging peak 30-day rates of over 3,600 BOE per day, demonstrating the superior quality of our inventory and subsurface expertise. And in the Texas Delaware, we recently brought online a new Silvertip well with the highest initial oil production of any horizontal well previously drilled in the lower 48. The Python 13H well posted a 3-stream IP of almost 20,000 BOE per day and averaged over 11,000 BOEs per day over its first 30 days online, which we believe to be the strongest performance ever for a Permian well. Overall, the Python development has outperformed expectations, and we're looking forward to developing the offsetting areas over the next few months. We're beginning to see additional progress in Colorado's new permit approval process. In August, we received approval from the Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission for the state's first comprehensive area plan under the recently implemented regulations. This plan has paved the way for us to complete more than 200 new wells in Wells County over the next few years. Also, several drilling permit applications that had been pending for a period of time were recently approved, allowing us to add back a rig in the DJ Basin after reallocating one earlier this year. With the permits we have in hand and our expectations for future approvals, we have enhanced our flexibility as we formulate our activity for next year. Last quarter, we celebrated first oil from our new discovery field in the Gulf of Mexico, Horn Mountain West. While it's exciting to realize production from new discoveries, our existing fields have abundant potential that we continue to unlock with innovative technical solutions like subsea expansions. For example, our Caesar-Tonga field recently reached a production milestone of 150 barrels of cumulative oil production since the start-up 10 years ago. Caesar-Tonga is a subsea tieback to the Constitution spar and is one of the largest fields in the Outer Continental Shelf. This impressive achievement is the result of the collaboration and hard work across Oxy's Gulf of Mexico business unit including the asset development teams and offshore personnel, who focus on delivering safe and efficient barrels every day. In the years ahead, we plan to continue maximizing production capacity through projects like this one. The Caesar-Tonga subsea expansion, which is scheduled for start-up in the first quarter of next year, will address facility bottlenecks and maximize production capacity from the field, while signaling a transition into the next phase of field development. In the second quarter, I highlighted new production records at Al Hosn in the UAE and Block 9 in Oman. I'd like to congratulate our Al Hosn and Oman teams again this quarter for breaking those recently set records. We're beginning to benefit from incremental production from Al Hosn and are pleased the expansion project is on track for completion in the middle of 2023. Turning to our Low Carbon business, I'm pleased to share that we broke ground on the world's largest direct air capture plant in Ector County, Texas. The first stage of construction, which includes site preparation and road work began in September. Plant start-up is expected in late 2024. During our March LCV Investor Update, we provided an overview of the expected revenues and costs for both direct air capture and point source capture projects. Just then, we had experienced progress on legislative and commercial fronts. Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which contains several enhancements to the 45Q tax credit that will incentivize the development of carbon capture projects. Additionally, strong interest from potential customers has provided us with a clearer picture of the market for carbon dioxide removal credits or CDRs, and net zero oil in addition to other products. We believe our low carbon strategy, combined with the ability to leverage direct air capture or DAC, for the benefit of ourselves and others, uniquely positions us to lead the market in supplying CDRs to the thousands of businesses that have established net zero ambitions. We are encouraged by the passage of the IRA and previously highlighted the potential for the 45Q enhancements to accelerate our low carbon strategy. We expect the 45Q enhancements to jump-start the voluntary market for CDRs, which gives us confidence to increase the number of DACs in our current development scenario from 70 online by 2035 to approximately 100. Equally as important, we expect the accelerated development of direct air capture will enable us to reduce plant capital and operating costs at a faster pace. In March, we provided a capital cost for the first DAC plant of $800 million to $1 billion. Given the inflationary pressures felt across the economy, especially for construction materials and labor, we now expect the first plant to cost approximately $1.1 billion. The current inflationary environment will not last forever, and we will leverage our supply chain and major projects expertise wherever possible, to lower the cost of our first direct air capture as well as the ones to follow. The U.S. has taken a leadership role in moving towards net zero making it more accessible for companies to meet their net zero commitments through the utilization of CDRs. Our long-term view on the potential of direct air capture has not changed, but to reach the net zero development scenario of 135 DACs described in our March update, the rest of the world will need to rise to the challenge in the form of global policy support. We're already seeing evidence of this, such as the PACE program recently announced in the UAE, which will catalyze $100 billion in financing and investment. The Permian location of our first direct air capture will provide us multiple options to maximize the value of captured CO2. We have the ability to inject the CO2 into a saline reservoir producing CDRs or to utilize the captured CO2 to produce net zero oil from our enhanced oil recovery assets. Our conversations with many corporate partners and potential clients have highlighted the significant demand for CDRs generated through CO2 sequestration. To meet this demand and advance our own net zero ambition, we plan to develop several hubs along the U.S. Gulf Coast, where we will have the option to develop direct air capture, provide point source capture and sequestration for industrial emissions or offer both solutions. To advance our ability to provide sequestration services and generate CDRs, we have filed applications for two Class VI sequestration permits and plan to file applications in the near future. We recently secured two new locations for the large-scale development of sequestration hubs. The first location covers 65,000 acres in Southeast Texas with up to 1.3 billion tons of CO2 sequestration capacity that could support up to 20 DACs. We also reached a lease agreement with King Ranch, the largest privately held ranch in the U.S., to build up to 30 DACs and develop point source capture infrastructure. Our agreement covers approximately 106,000 acres, which is about 166 square miles with the capability to safely and permanently sequester approximately 3 billion tons of CO2. We expect to develop our second DAC at King Ranch and plan to start the pre-feed before year-end. These two new locations are in addition to the three hubs focused on point source capture that we're also developing. We have secured almost 100,000 acres in Southeast Texas and Louisiana capable of safely and permanently sequestering approximately 1.9 billion tons of CO2. In total, we have secured over 260,000 acres capable of sequestering almost 6 billion tons of CO2 compared to the target we communicated in March of securing approximately 100,000 acres by the end of the year. NET Power recently announced a plan to develop and build the world's first utility-scale natural gas-fired power plant with near zero atmospheric emissions. The plant will be located close to Oxy's operations in the Permian and will supply our operations with clean, low-cost on-demand power. CO2 generated by the power plant will be captured and permanently sequestered underground using our existing CO2 infrastructure. This plant will accelerate Oxy's plans to reduce carbon emissions to help us achieve our net zero ambitions. This first utility-scale plant will enable both Oxy and NET Power to develop best practices that use NET Power's technology to provide emission-free power for our Permian operations and future direct air capture sites.

Thank you, Vicki, and good afternoon. In the third quarter, our profitability remained strong as we posted an adjusted profit of $2.44 per diluted share and a reported profit of $2.52 per diluted share, even as commodity prices declined from the recent high set in the second quarter. The difference between adjusted and reported earnings was primarily driven by a gain on sale and a tax benefit related to foreign restructuring, partially offset by early debt extinguishment cost and mark-to-market adjustments. As Vicki mentioned, we made substantial progress towards completing our $3 billion share repurchase program in the third quarter. We have repurchased almost 42 million shares through November 7 for approximately $2.6 billion with a weighted average price below $62 per share. We intend to complete the share repurchase program by year-end and allocate any additional cash flow this year to reducing debt further. During the quarter, approximately 7.4 million publicly traded warrants were exercised, bringing the total number exercised as of September 30 to almost 12 million with approximately 104 million remaining outstanding. The warrants were a cash exercise instrument, meaning that Oxy received a cash payment from the warrant holder upon exercise, which provides them with an additional source of cash to purchase shares and reduce debt. We are very pleased to have completed our near-term debt reduction goal of lowering debt to the high teens. In addition to having repaid approximately $9.6 billion of debt year-to-date, we also retired $275 million of notional interest rate swaps in the third quarter for approximately $100 million in cash. We exited the third quarter with approximately $1.2 billion of unrestricted cash on the balance sheet and as of November 7 have reduced the face value of our debt below $19 billion. We have provided notice that the $340 million note due in February will be called on November 15, meaning that we will have less than $23 million of debt due next year. We also intend to retire the remaining $450 million of notional interest rate swaps this year, which we expect to require approximately $150 million in cash at the current interest rate curve. As I mentioned on the previous call, we believe reducing the face value of our debt to the high teens will accelerate our return to investment grade. We have made outstanding progress over the past two years to meet this objective, but understand that we cannot determine the timing of any potential ratings change. The combined impact of improving our balance sheet and reducing debt this year alone is estimated to result in a total annual interest and financing cost savings of over $350 million on a go-forward basis. Debt reduction will remain a priority, but we intend to notably redirect our cash flow priorities next year from proactively reducing debt to returning additional excess cash flow to shareholders. Over time, we intend to reduce gross debt below $15 billion. As Vicki mentioned, we are raising our full-year guidance across all three business segments due to outperformance in the third quarter and improved expectations for the remainder of the year. Starting with oil and gas, we have raised our full year production guidance by 5,000 BOE per day to 1.16 million BOE per day for 2022, while our full-year capital guidance remains unchanged. But we continue to expect to finish the year on the high end of our capital range. Our production has increased steadily each quarter of this year, which has always been expected outcome of our 2022 plan, in part due to ramp up activity in scheduled turnarounds in the first quarter. We expect this trajectory will continue in the fourth quarter with production exceeding 1.2 million BOE per day. Our Permian operations were impacted by higher-than-expected third-party downtime and lower OBO volumes during the quarter. Our strong well performance continues to exceed our expectations, but due to third-party issues in the quarter, our Permian production came at the low end of our guidance range. We have revised our fourth quarter Permian guidance down slightly from the implied guidance we provided last quarter, as our third quarter exit rate was lower than anticipated. We expect strong performance in the Gulf of Mexico and Rockies that more than offset the updated Permian projection. As our 2022 plan anticipated an increase in activity throughout the year, our fourth quarter capital spend is expected to be higher than prior quarters this year. The activity that was added in the second half of this year will place us in a strong position for 2023 as our Permian production will grow by over 100,000 BOE per day in the first quarter. Our fourth quarter production is expected to grow approximately 18% from the fourth quarter of last year. OxyChem continues to perform well, and we've raised our full-year guidance to reflect third quarter results as well as an improvement in our expectations for the fourth quarter. Fundamentals in the caustic soda market continue to be supportive, while softening in the PVC market has occurred at a slower pace than previously expected. We expect the fourth quarter to reflect seasonal trends that are typical for this business but did not materialize in 2020 or 2021.

Thank you, Rob. As we said during our March investor update, achieving our net zero ambitions will require funding outside of Oxy's historical capital allocation program. As the construction phase and technology of our first stack project advances, we will continue to consider strategic capital partnerships and structures to address financing. While we are prepared to fund the first stack plant ourselves, if necessary, we are working to de-risk the construction phase and commercialize the technology to attract financing structures that will retain the most value for our shareholders. Finally, we understand that there's a high level of interest in our 2023 capital and activity plans, which we will communicate on our next call once our plans are finalized and approved by the Board. As we formulate our plans for 2023, we will focus on retaining a high degree of flexibility in our capital and spending plans, allowing us to adapt and maximize opportunities in a changing macro environment as we do each year. Before we go to our Q&A, I'd like to thank Jeff Alvarez for his leadership with our Investor Relations. I'm sure you would all agree, he's done a tremendous job to not only share our story and to help you all understand our strategy and results, but he's also provided critical support to our leadership team. We appreciate what Jeff has done with Investor Relations and what he will do for us in his new role that he's recently accepted. That role is to become President and General Manager of CO2 Sequestration. In this role, Jeff will lead the efforts to build our CO2 sequestration business. As you've heard in my script, this is a growing and important part of our low-carbon strategy. Jeff's 30 years of engineering and leadership experience working in domestic and Middle East operations and his proven track record of creating value will be needed for this emerging business. I'm happy to announce that Neil Backhouse will replace Jeff as Vice President of Investor Relations, reporting to Rob. And you all know, Neil, in addition to Investor Relations, his diverse expertise includes experience in treasury, finance, and banking. Before we go to our Q&A, I'd like to thank Jeff Alvarez for his leadership with our Investor Relations. I'm sure you would all agree, he's done a tremendous job to not only share our story and to help you all understand our strategy and results, he's also provided critical support to our leadership team. We appreciate what Jeff has done with Investor Relations and what he will do for us in his new role that he's recently accepted. That role is to become President and General Manager of CO2 Sequestration. In this role, Jeff will lead the efforts to build our CO2 sequestration business. As you've heard in my script, this is a growing and important part of our low-carbon strategy. Jeff's 30 years of engineering and leadership experience working in domestic and Middle East operations and his proven track record of creating value will be needed for this emerging business. I'm happy to announce that Neil Backhouse will replace Jeff as Vice President of Investor Relations, reporting to Rob. And you all know, Neil, in addition to Investor Relations, his diverse expertise includes experience in treasury, finance, and banking. Prior to joining Oxy, Neil worked as a corporate banker focused on oil and gas clients for two high-profile international banks. He holds a BS from Colorado State University, a postgraduate degree in Financial Services, and a master's degree in International Business, both from the University of Manchester. I give tremendous thanks to Jeff Alvarez for his highly favorable contributions he's made to the finance organization, and please join me in extending your support to Neil and wishing him success as he transitions to his new role.

I appreciate all the commentary. Vicki, I know you don't want to give too much away on the capital program for next year, but I wonder if you could help us with the starting point. We ask you often, I guess, maybe you get a little tired of the question, but on what your sustaining capital is for your upstream business. But obviously, there's a lot of moving parts, particularly inflation and then, of course, your higher productivity that you showed with the pipeline well this quarter. So as a starting point, where do you see your sustaining capital going as you look into 2023?

The challenge, Doug, is that we really don't know what 2023 will look like in terms of inflation. We can discuss our inflation expectations later if there's interest. As for our capital, all we can provide is what we observe from an activity standpoint. We've stated before that we do not plan to increase our oil and gas production from 2022 to 2023; we will keep it flat. Over the past couple of years, there were some business units not meeting their sustaining capital. We will revert to the sustaining capital for Permian EOR and the Gulf of Mexico, which you may recall is around $500 million for the Gulf of Mexico annually. For EOR, it's at least $400 million annually, potentially closer to $450 million. These are two areas where we need to increase investments in 2023. Additionally, there are several projects we find very promising for next year, including a membrane conversion project at the Battleground plant, which we discussed last quarter. This project will boost Battleground's capacity by 80% and produce about $250 million to $350 million in incremental EBITDA while yielding strong returns. We also plan to expand Al Hosn to 1.45 in 2023. Incorporating these projects will influence our sustaining capital to some extent moving forward. Both projects promise good returns, but when you factor in inflation, things become uncertain because we still aren't certain about next year's inflation trends. Without that clarity, it's challenging to determine what our sustaining capital will be until we get closer to that timeframe.

I understand it's a challenging question, but I appreciate the way you've framed it. My follow-up inquiry is to thank Jeff as well for the many field trips we've experienced at Permian over the years. I want to refer to a couple of slides in your presentation, specifically Slide 23 and Slide 25. I'm trying to grasp whether the productivity improvements shown in Slide 23 should be viewed as the new standard, in line with the inventory depth illustrated in Slide 25. I'm looking to reconcile these two points and understand how they connect.

Okay. I'll pass that to Richard.

Thanks, Doug. This is Richard. I'll address that by starting with well performance and then linking that to the inventory we aim to highlight. Overall, this year has been positive. As we mentioned earlier, we've seen growth of nearly 100,000 barrels a day from Q1 to Q4, especially notable in the second half of the year. The standout aspect of this has been our well performance. Over the year, this totals 200 wells drilled in the Delaware across our acreage, spanning from North Loving into New Mexico and various development areas. Our third quarter results reflected approximately 45 wells in Southeast New Mexico and Loving. I emphasize this to convey that the consistency we are observing is becoming the standard as we make improvements. The Python well is exciting to discuss, but what’s particularly interesting is the consistent success across the entire North Loving development area. In that DSU where we achieved a record well, we had offset wells drilled in a similar formation. Therefore, the ability to return and develop a DSU with offsets that are similar to child wells, achieving record performance, is a strong indication of our approach to subsurface development. From an inventory perspective, I mean, I think the slide speaks for itself. We've got a lot of inventory that we've accumulated across a good acreage position. The only thing I would add to that is we continue to have strong, what we would consider, secondary bench. They're not really secondary because some of these are performing as well as the primary. So I'd point you to some Second Bone Spring in the Delaware Basin and then even the Barnett appraisal that we noted in the highlight. Both of those have moved themselves up to really top tier in our development plans. We have optionality in terms of when we develop that and co-develop it, but it's good to see those secondary benches add to that inventory.

I guess the first question is around the production profile. And as you talked about the plan for now as you think about '23 is to keep volumes on the oil side relatively flat. What would you look for in order to change that viewpoint and actually grow volumes? Is it price signal from the market? Or is it a view on where you want your balance sheet to be?

It's mostly around creating shareholder value and doing it in a way that ensures that it's sustainable over time. And part of our value proposition is to provide a growing dividend, which we, as you know, had the impact, and we're trying to now resume. So what we really want to do is make the best decisions around how to allocate capital. We don't feel like we necessarily need to grow cash flow at this point because we have significant cash flow at almost all price ranges. We're breakeven below $40. So currently, the way that we see to increase shareholder value the most and in a sure way that's sustainable and it also enables us to grow the dividend is to buy back shares in addition to enabling us to grow the dividend over time, but we do believe that at this point, we're significantly undervalued. So that's the best value decision and the best use of our capital dollars there.

And that's the follow-up, Vicki, which is just around the authorization. You guys did a great job in the third quarter and knocking off a decent part of that share buyback authorization. Do you need to come back into the market? And how should we think about timing and sizing there?

Well, we'll finish the $3 billion for this year and then any cash that's left available this year will go to further debt reduction. Starting next year is when we'll have significantly more capital available to buy back shares. So essentially, any free cash flow that's available next year will be allocated mostly to share buybacks. And we really want people to understand that this is not something that we're doing on a temporary basis. We do believe that share buybacks where we are today and where our capital needs are and our cash flow potential, share buybacks is a part of our value proposition as is a growing dividend. And the two work so well together as a combined value proposition. So that's what we're essentially trying to do. We will occasionally, in the near term, do some projects that are not oil and gas but do increase value. So we are increasing value in cash flow and earnings with the membrane development at Battleground and also with Al Hosn expansion. So when we see projects that are kind of opportunistic, we'll take advantage of that to increase cash flow, but we think the better value is to buy back shares and increase shareholder value that way.

Maybe this is for Rob. Rob, with the rising interest rate and potentially for the next several years it's going to be much higher than what we've seen in the past 10 years. How does that change the LCV business model, if any, given that project financing, the economic return may not be as good as before? And also in your chart, when you're showing from 2022 to '24, the revenue and cost seems to match, so does that mean that currently, before we see further improvement, that the EBITDA will be zero for that business? That's the first question. The second question is, can you tell us the mechanics of the preferred redemption, look like next year you will start to have partial redemption. How does that work? And also, the warrant related buffer, the preferred, how those is going to get exercised?

We'll start with the LCV question. And first, I'll just say that we really don't know yet what the inflationary environment is going to be. We don't expect or at least at this point expect that it would be a long-term inflationary period. We know the Federal Reserve is doing all they can to manage that. So what we'll do is we have to continue our business. And on the first direct air capture, it's really important for us to build it and to operate it before we can understand how to optimize it. And so as we go forward, we'll always keep in mind what our costs are with respect to what the potential returns are, and we'll make decisions on that. But based on what we think we can do with it, it's more prudent to continue to invest at this point, preferably with other people's dollars, but with ours if need be, to ensure that we can get the technology tested up and running and improved. You have more to add, Richard?

Yes, maybe just a few things. I think what Vicki says is exactly the way we're thinking about it, important to de-risk what we can control, which is really innovation and cost. And so we have our innovation center that we continue to progress. Obviously, getting started on these projects, especially if we have line of sight to multiple projects, will help our costs down as we improve our engineering and/or construction. And so that will be important. The pace of development, very supported by the policy, really gives us an accelerate. I think we're well positioned for some DOE grants that we talked about, I think, with you in the past. So when you think about near-term capitalization, those are options. Longer term, we want to get the cost in the market in place to really support the sustainable business. And at that point, capitalization options are wide open. And so that's sort of how we have thought about that, but very focused on getting really the cost down. On this first plant, really advancing the innovation pathway that we see to really move this development forward.

I will address the other part of your questions. Within the preferred redemption mechanics, we cannot voluntarily redeem the preferred shares before August 29. After that date, we can voluntarily redeem those preferred shares at $1.05, which includes a 5% premium over par. However, the agreement contains a mandatory redemption provision requiring us to redeem deferred shares at a 10% premium, or 110%, for every dollar we distribute to common shareholders that exceeds $4 on a trailing 12-month basis. Building on Vicki's comments, we will sum all cash spent on share repurchases and dividends distributed to shareholders from November 10 of last year through November 9 of this year, using a previous day's share count for the total. As she mentioned, that amount is $3.21 today. If the total exceeded $4, any distribution to shareholders above that threshold would be matched dollar-for-dollar against the preferred shares redeemed on a 50-50 basis. For instance, if it totaled $4.10, we would allocate $0.10 from the current outstanding shares towards the redemption of the preferred at 110%. This process will continue as long as we remain above that threshold. If we distribute more value to shareholders, such as by purchasing more shares or paying dividends, an equivalent amount will be applied towards the Berkshire preferred while we are above the threshold. If we drop below that threshold, the process stops until we exceed it again. This describes how the Berkshire redemption works. Regarding the warrants, they can be exercised at any time. When warrant holders exercise their warrants, they pay us $22 per share in exchange for stock being issued. This will result in cash for us. Warrant holders do not receive dividends, so any growth in dividends, as Vicki discussed earlier, does not apply to them. An increase in dividends could lead to more warrants being exercised. To date, we have seen about $12 million of the roughly $116 million exercised.

I have a couple of questions on OLCV. The first one is on the financing of the first stack. I understood that you might benefit from the Infrastructure Act. Could you maybe give us an update on whether we can expect you to benefit from those subsidies? And then I will have a follow-up question.

So the plant will be operational in 2024 and then the ability to claim the CDRs would be available at that time.

And maybe I'll just add to that. I mean, in addition, obviously, 45Q in addition to the offtake with the carbon dioxide removals, which are sold to businesses that are looking to reduce their emissions, but also, as I mentioned briefly, well positioned for some potential grants for direct air capture that is available from that Infrastructure Act. So we want to put a competitive program together and show how those can really catalyze our business, which will allow us to reach commerciality quicker and then we'll become self-sustaining as a business to go forward.

And as a reminder, what we said in the past that we do have a contract for 100,000 tons per year of CDRs from that first plant.

And speaking about CDRs, it's a little bit opaque, the value of those CDRs. Can you maybe refer us to some transactions that would have been closed already at the sort of price levels that we can guess from what you show on your Slide 8?

I want to provide some context about the market. As it develops, carbon dioxide removals, which effectively lower atmospheric CO2, are becoming increasingly valued. Having an engineered solution like direct air capture that not only captures atmospheric CO2 but also securely stores it underground is a distinctive aspect of this emerging carbon reduction market. Our goal is to operate on a large scale while remaining cost-competitive. When considering all the alternatives for emission reductions, we believe we can be quite competitive. Although we cannot disclose specific contracts we’re working on, there are some publicized ones that typically involve smaller volumes and higher costs than what is reflected in our revenue figures. From a revenue perspective, in addition to the 45Q tax credit or similar supportive policies, we can also leverage the environmental benefits of carbon removal to enhance our total revenue against the costs mentioned. We are encouraged by the acceptance of this market and are collaborating with excellent partners who recognize that this is a cost-effective approach for various industries to reduce emissions over the next 10 to 20 years.

First question is around your 2023 traditional activity. I'm just wondering specifically, do you anticipate continuing to run, I don't know, I guess it's around 23, 25 rigs next year? Could we see maybe a bit of efficiencies allowing for less? And if that's around the number, do you anticipate those rigs running in kind of approximately the same area as this year?

I can start, and then Vicki can add any context that she needs to. But I think that rough number is about right in terms of where our activity is. We made note of the rig that we picked up in the Rockies. I think the success that we've had with our permitting have given us a strong runway on those very competitive projects in our portfolio. We also have a rig that we picked up in the second half of this year and enhanced oil recovery, which is a great add to our business as we had low decline production to kind of add to the mix. So those are the two I would point to. We do have flexibility in the program. We have staggered terms in terms of contracts, so we can adjust to the macro where Oxy needs us to. We can adjust with flexibility. And the final two variables I'd give you is obviously working interest. We fluctuate between 90% to even 50%, 60% in terms of working interest in a business like the Delaware. And so where we have rigs and frac core, sometimes that can look a little lumpy from a capital perspective, but it's simply working interest. And the same could be said really for OBO. And maybe the last thing to note is just our JV. So we're able to extend our EcoPetrol JV into the Delaware, which is a great opportunity for us to accelerate this high-quality inventory, brings a great partner along with us. And so that is another lever that will not be transparent when you're just trying to look at activity versus capital.

Got it. And then just a second question, maybe, Richard, just staying with you is around that strong pipeline well. Just wondering, could you comment as to the magnitude of future locations you all see in that area and any plans near term or maybe even next year to obviously, given the success there, maybe boost activity in that area?

Yes. What's great about them is they're certainly in a very rich geologic area for us, but that area in total is North Loving. And for those of you who know that our position in sort of the Texas Delaware, that's quite a large acreage position. And so near some of the Silvertip wells, which had some of the records in the past, but in the near term, we have 2 or 3 DSUs that will be coming online over the next couple of quarters. But in total, that's a large acreage position that we've picked up, and just excited about prosecuting that. Again, not to challenge our team too hard, but we do continue to find ways to improve. And so whether it's the primary benches like the Wolfcamp Y, which as well was in our secondary in the Bone Spring, I'm looking forward to seeing what our teams can do.

On Chemicals, can you talk a little more about the drivers of the better-than-expected results in both 3Q and I think, 4Q? And how does 2023 set up relative to the run rate in 2H? I know the housing market is likely to become kind of more and more challenged with rates where they are, but that business does seem to continue to do well.

Sure, I would say that the macroeconomic conditions are still influencing demand in our vinyls business. Interest rates and housing starts are not favorable, which has led to ongoing weakness in the domestic PVC market as the housing sector slows down. PVC buyers are adjusting their inventories in response to pricing changes, and there are also significant imports from Asia due to continual COVID lockdowns in China. This has shifted the regional dynamics of PVC supply. However, the decline in PVC demand is somewhat offset by a competitive advantage for U.S. chemical production, which has boosted our export business. U.S. exports are up 28% year-to-date compared to last year. Additionally, despite the pressure from interest rates, there is still considerable pent-up demand for construction in the U.S., which is helping to sustain some levels of activity. Another important factor is that as PVC demand slows, it affects the chlorine segment, making caustic soda harder to come by and tightening the market, leading to higher caustic soda prices than expected. Collectively, these factors have contributed to our strong performance in the third quarter and the optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter. However, we are expecting a sequential decline in the fourth quarter as we enter a seasonally low period. Looking ahead, we don’t have a clear picture for 2023 yet, as it will depend on how housing starts are affected by interest rates and the duration of COVID lockdowns in China. The reopening of China could potentially shift demand back towards Asian products, similar to trends seen in the oil and gas markets. Typically, after winter, demand usually picks up, which may give us a better understanding of the chemicals market around February or March. At this point, it’s challenging to provide guidance for 2023 as the key drivers will be related to PVC demand, the construction sector, and developments in China as they reopen their economy.

Okay, that's really helpful. And then on the King Ranch deal, obviously, it's a very large amount of facility that you can put on top of it. Can you just talk to the pros and cons of building units on that site versus where you're developing DAC 1 in the Permian and maybe some of the other acreage you've secured? And then is there an incremental spend number we should be thinking about over the next couple of years to develop these sites?

I'm really excited about the King Ranch and appreciate their collaboration in exploring a fresh perspective on this valuable asset. The remarkable aspect of this position is its extensive contiguous acreage, which allows us to optimize our development strategy. Additionally, the geology in South Texas is excellent, featuring abundant pore space, ready access to water due to its Gulf Coast location, and a design for direct air capture that utilizes aqueous fluids. We also have the ability to generate zero-emission power to support the scaling of direct air capture and are close to point source emissions. While this site is ideal for capturing and expanding direct air capture, its proximity to the Gulf Coast facilitates the consideration of point source emissions, helping us achieve economies of scale in shared costs. In comparison to the Permian, there are distinct advantages. The Permian offers proximity to our CO2 infrastructure and supports both sequestration and net zero oil through enhanced oil recovery. Depending on customer preferences for sequestration or net zero oil, we can cater to either option. Our approach is that both strategies reduce emissions, as they contribute to lowering atmospheric CO2. The expansion of both markets enables us to deploy more technology and reduce costs, enhancing competitiveness regarding other emission abatement approaches. When it comes to incremental capital expenditure, that will depend on our success in lowering costs and driving innovation, as well as the anticipated growth of the CDR market over the next decade. Additionally, early support through grants such as those from the DOE could significantly accelerate our progress. Once we establish a sustainable commercial operation, we will have various options for capitalization.

I would like to add that we have significant interest in partnerships and investments in our project and Low Carbon business. There is certainly no shortage of interest. For us, it’s about selecting the right partners as we start this process. As Richard mentioned, the focus is on starting the process, enhancing the technology to make it better and more affordable over time, which will provide us with even more financing options.