Paccar Inc (PCAR) — Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Brice Poplawski, Vice President and Controller. As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the Investor Relations page of PACCAR. I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.

Good morning. Harrie, Brice, Ken, and I will update you on our record third quarter financial results and other business highlights. PACCAR's outstanding employees delivered this excellent performance by providing our customers with the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry. PACCAR's third quarter net income increased 60% year-over-year to a record $1.23 billion, and revenues increased 23% to $8.7 billion. Truck, Parts, and Other gross margins expanded to 19.5% in the third quarter compared to 14.9% in the same period last year. PACCAR's global investments in innovative new DAF, Kenworth, and Peterbilt trucks, as well as investments in technology and manufacturing, were key elements in delivering this strong performance. PACCAR Parts third quarter revenues increased to $1.58 billion. Parts pretax profits were $412 million, or 10% higher than the same period last year. PACCAR Parts provides its customers with industry-leading technology that enhances their uptime. PACCAR Financial earned a strong pretax income of $134 million in the third quarter, reflecting its high-quality portfolio. We estimate this year's U.S. and Canadian Class 8 market to be in a range of 295,000 to 315,000 trucks and next year to be in a range of 260,000 to 300,000 vehicles. Customers are replacing their trucks with the new heavy and medium-duty Peterbilt and Kenworth models that enhance their operational efficiencies, achieve industry-leading fuel economy, and attract and retain the best drivers. Demand is strong for Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks, with the first quarter of 2024 filling in quickly. In Europe, this year's truck industry registrations in the above 16-tonne segment are estimated to be in a range of 310,000 to 330,000 vehicles. The 2024 market is expected to be in the range of 260,000 to 300,000 trucks. The new DAF trucks have redefined the premium truck segment in Europe and offer superior aerodynamics, award-winning fuel economy, and enhanced features that make them the driver's choice. The South American above 16-tonne market is projected to be in a range of 105,000 to 115,000 trucks this year and in a similar range next year. DAF Brazil recently celebrated its 10th anniversary and has increased its greater than 16-tonne share to a record 10%. The DAF lineup of trucks is performing exceptionally well for customers in all Brazilian operating environments. PACCAR recently announced its participation in a new battery cell joint venture. The joint venture will be located in the United States and will manufacture battery cells for use in medium and heavy-duty trucks. PACCAR's proprietary battery cells will create value for our customers and help them achieve their future operational and environmental goals. PACCAR's employees and dealers are delivering excellent results for our customers, and we're excited about the future. Thank you. Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services, and other business highlights.

Thanks, Preston. PACCAR delivered 50,100 trucks during the third quarter. We estimate fourth quarter deliveries to be similar and in the range of 48,000 to 51,000 trucks. More production days in the fourth quarter in Europe will be offset by fewer production days due to holidays in North America. The supply base is improving but continues to limit production. Truck parts and other gross margins increased to 19.5% in the third quarter. We anticipate fourth quarter close margins to be around 19%, reflecting the strong performance of our new truck models and PACCAR Parts. PACCAR Parts delivered third quarter gross margins of 31.5%. PACCAR Parts innovative programs, such as Advanced Fleet Management Services and Predictive Dealer Inventory Management, helped customers increase vehicle uptime and their financial performance. For the fourth quarter, we expect part sales to be 7% to 9% higher than in the same period of last year. PACCAR Financial Services results in the third quarter benefited from excellent portfolio quality and positive used truck results. Pretax income was $134 million. PACCAR Financial is the market leader supporting the superior Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF products with innovative technologies and a strong global used truck network. In the last two years, DAF, Kenworth, and Peterbilt have introduced more new truck models than at any comparable time in the company's history. The pace of these introductions continues with a new flagship Peterbilt Model 589 that begins production in the first quarter of 2024. PACCAR's capital investments in new and expanded facilities, innovative products, and new technologies have created the highest performing trucks and transportation solutions in the industry and will contribute to excellent financial returns for many years. PACCAR's return on invested capital further improved to an industry-leading 35% in the first nine months of this year. This year's capital expenditures are projected to be between $650 million and $675 million and will increase to $675 million to $725 million next year. Research and development expenses will be $410 million to $420 million this year and increase to between $470 million and $520 million next year. In addition to the capital and R&D investments, the company will own a 30% share in the battery cell joint venture and expects to invest $600 million to $900 million over the coming three years. With the most advanced truck range in the industry, efficient investments, strong aftermarket parts and financial services businesses, and exciting new strategic opportunities, PACCAR is positioned well for the future. Thank you. We would be pleased to answer your questions.

So my first question is about parts growth. I think in the press release, you said you're opening a PDC in Germany next year. So how should we be thinking about parts growth in 2024 in terms of how long does it take a PDC to sort of ramp and reach run rate capacity? How do we think about growth overall? If you could give some color on that, that would be very helpful.

Happy to start with that, and Harrie can add anything he wants. I think what Harrie shared with you is that we think parts growth is going to be in the 7% to 9% in the fourth quarter. To your point, on the effectiveness of a PDC, it's almost immediately good for the business. What a PDC does is it allows us to have closer points of contact with our customers, get them parts in a quicker way, and support their businesses for more same-day or next-day parts delivery. So it's really quickly beneficial to them, Tami.

Got it. That's very helpful. And then how should we think about decremental margins next year, given you're expecting truck sales down both in Europe and U.S., Canada?

I think what we've been able to do in the last few years, and we've shared this as we've introduced more new products than any time in our history, and we continue that with the new Peterbilt Model 589. Those products are doing exceptionally well for us in the marketplace. So we're pleased with how they're performing, and that means performing for our customers. So they're getting value out of that. I think we'll watch how the market develops for next year, and we have a lot better insights into margin and what's going on as we get into the first quarter for 2024.

Preston, I think it was you who was talking about the launch of the new Peterbilt, I think, in January of '24, you said, sorry if I got that wrong. I'm just curious how big of a launch is that? Okay. Great. How big of a launch is that? How much of your North American revenue could that be? And where I'm trying to go with this is, you guys always seem to engineer in sort of higher margins as you do these changeovers. So I'm trying to figure out how much of a tailwind that might be in 2024.

First of all, we focus on providing higher value for our customers, and I believe we have achieved that with our new products. The 589 is really impressive. When we first introduced it, it was thrilling to see, and I believe it will become an iconic model in the industry. It looks amazing, and I think it will serve as a great flagship for the Peterbilt team. As for the percentages, perhaps Harrie can provide more details.

The 589, Steve, will replace the 389. And a good way to think about it, the 389 is now about 20% of Peterbilt's production. So maybe 6%, 7% of PACCAR's total production. And the 589, like I said, will replace and maybe grow even a little bit more.

Great. Okay. And then my follow-up is on the Financial Services, Harrie. I'm curious, obviously, it was down a little bit year-over-year. How do the higher rates that we're seeing in the market kind of layer in? Because obviously, you get some income, I guess, on your cash balances, which is great, but then there's probably some headwinds in the finance book. And I don't know, just any color you could give us on that would be great.

The portfolio quality continues to be very strong. We have a portfolio of almost $20 billion now with past dues less than 1%. While higher interest rates do lead to increased payments for our customers, the new products we launch, which have better fuel efficiency, help them save on fuel costs, effectively offsetting the higher interest payments in the current environment.

So first question for you is how much visibility do you have into engine rebuilds? And what does it tell you about your engine parts demand or what it could look like more broadly into 2024?

Well, I think we have pretty good visibility to the life of the engine. Our Parts team does a fantastic job of tracking miles or a lot of our vehicles are connected, so we get to see what miles are accumulating. We obviously manage what's going on from an engine parts utilization standpoint. And then as the population is still reaching a point of maturity, we expect to see the amount of rebuilds increasing over time. So that should be still accretive to the parts business.

Got it. That's helpful. And the second question, can you talk about your approach to managing the growth in an air pocket in '24, just given that you do have a prebuy ahead of the 27 emissions standards that could probably start in 2025 and '26? I just want to get a sense for how you're thinking about labor line rates, maintaining your suppliers, so you can catch the rebound.

Yes. I think that what we see is right and we've been talking about this for a little while with you guys is that our approach has been to spend money in research to make sure we have the right products sitting out there, and we do. So we're really well positioned with the newest product line. That matters a lot. And then I think where we're sitting in time is markets that haven't been able to be fully met for a few years, and now people are starting to think about what the future might be in terms of 2027 emissions, which could make this a stronger for longer kind of approach. Obviously, your word was air pocket. I got to tell you, I've never heard that word before, but I'll use it with you. And if it's an air pocket next year, we'll see what that looks like as we get into 2024.

Yes. One market question then hopefully, more interesting strategic. So just on the outlook, is there any material mix shift kind of coming through in your customer conversations or order flow towards vocational? And does that outlook anticipate a decline in sentiment? Or does it sort of follow along with what you've already seen in the customer base?

Rob, I think you're paying attention to what's going on. I mean we do see a really strong vocational market out there. We see a strong medium-duty market. The LTL market is very strong. And then as we were talking about in the last question from Chad, the idea that I think customers that are sophisticated or paying attention to the next few years want to keep their fleet age at a low level. So there's a lot of contemplation for them to stay on a smart buying cycle for them. And frankly, as we've said and we keep saying, right, these new trucks are providing good value to them. So there's a reason for them to keep buying trucks. And I think that all factors into where we think the market is going to be looking forward.

Okay. Perfect. And then another one just on the battery investment. This has been the subject of some debate as your future trucks will presumably have higher content with batteries and autonomy and other things, but just sticking with the batteries for the moment. And some question as to whether those batteries would be commodity provided by somebody else or more individually designed for your trucks by you. And this seems to lean in the latter direction. I wonder if you could comment on the proprietary nature of it, the chemistry, and what you expect on this investment and the timing of when those trucks might actually start to roll in numbers to market. I'll stop there.

Yes. There are many questions in there, so let me provide an overview and we can revisit it if needed. As we move forward, we anticipate utilizing a variety of technologies for powering vehicles. Clean diesel will certainly be part of it. We believe that batteries will also play a significant role, especially following our joint venture into proprietary battery cells. Additionally, hydrogen could be utilized, either through internal combustion engines or fuel cells. However, when it comes to battery electric vehicles, the overall vehicle cost is greatly influenced by battery costs. Thus, a more vertically integrated approach benefits our customers and allows us to manage both the energy in the battery and the battery energy management system for the vehicle. We recognized the importance of engaging in this sector, and while we anticipate it will take a few years to develop, we are currently awaiting regulatory approvals. We are optimistic about the direction things are heading. Regarding battery chemistry, we have chosen lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) or a variant of it. This choice is advantageous due to its safety, lack of reliance on rare earth minerals, durability, quicker charging times, and overall better lifespan and cost structure. These factors were instrumental in our decision, and I want to commend our technology teams for their thoughtful work over the past several years that has set us on this promising path.

The comments earlier about the first quarter of '24 are starting to fill up quickly. Can you give us some insight on how the pricing is for those first quarter deliveries? And then maybe a sense of the cadence year-over-year that you expect the U.S./Canada down 8% to play out for the industry?

I think when it comes to pricing, we previously communicated our vision for the fourth quarter, where we expect a gross margin of around 19%. This is developing quickly. The main focus has been ensuring that customers recognize the value of our products, which is crucial for pricing. It's a competitive market, and I'm eager to discuss pricing dynamics and market conditions as we approach the first quarter earnings. Regarding the first quarter, it looks promising. While there may be some moderation in truckload, there is ongoing consideration about the next three years. I can’t predict what the second, third, or fourth quarters will be like, but we expect to see some adjustments from this year, though demand should remain at a replacement level.

That's helpful. The order book right now, how far can the dealers order out to, say, U.S., Canada into '24?

Looking at the first half.

I wonder if you could just talk about the new product portfolio, I mean, in Europe. I think your profitability per truck has doubled with the new product, similar on the medium-duty product lineup. Is it possible, Harrie, for us to have a discussion of what proportion of the portfolio fits this new product paradigm versus the type of rollouts that we have still in front of us over the next couple of years? How far away are we through rolling out this new higher-margin portfolio that seems to be a big step higher for you folks?

And the new DAF is currently a little over 80% of all the trucks that DAF is building. I remember DAF was also building trucks for export outside Europe. But I would say within Europe, almost all the trucks that we're selling are the new DAF with the improved aerodynamics and the better fuel economy because that's what customers want. And then going forward, yes, we're planning to bring that new DAF product also to other markets. And any market where we're currently selling DAF is an opportunity to sell the new DAF in the future.

And sorry, Harrie, can we expand that conversation in North America as well? So with the 589 rolling out, what's the remaining opportunity within the book for upgrades that you folks have planned?

The 589 is replacing the 389 next year, and the 389 accounts for 20% of Peterbilt's production, which translates to about 6% or 7% of PACCAR's total production. I expect the 589 will represent a similar percentage as the 389 does now.

And there's a pipeline for new products from there, it sounds like?

Of course, yes, I'll help a little bit here. As you can see from our R&D numbers for next year, we believe there are numerous valuable projects we are developing that will benefit our customers and shareholders. Our pipeline is very full.

Okay. Super. And can I ask on the battery electric investment? You folks have really good connectivity with your clients on the consultation side. Once you get the plant up and running, how quickly based on your conversations do you think demand will ramp up? How big are the concerns around the utilities' ability to keep up versus having a product that's going to be producible at scale that you folks are effectively going to be solving for the industry in 2027?

I think you just captured the issues that are unknowable at this point right now. Regulation is a factor. Energy is a factor. Infrastructure is a factor, and the rate of adoption for EVs. Price is a factor as well. But our position is PACCAR is to make sure that we offer our customers the right solutions, right? So we make the investments now. We're less concerned about whether the adoption curve is rapid in '27 or if it's '28 or whenever it is. We'll have great diesel engines, we have great electric vehicles, great hydrogen vehicles. And that puts us in a position of supporting their needs regardless of the circumstances.

Preston, you gave us some reasons for generally high margins in terms of the investments in technology and manufacturing, but I guess what was so much better than you expected in margins in the quarter at the TPO level? I mean still like 100 basis points above your midpoint. So just curious kind of was there any one of those factors or just conservatism that you're now baking into your numbers?

I think that we have seen improvement in the steadiness of supply, although we have encountered some impacts from that. Our markets outside of the U.S. are performing exceptionally well as well. Additionally, we experienced a smoother set of builds, which are likely the most significant factors contributing to our performance.

Okay. That's helpful. And then I'm just curious what indications do you have from your suppliers for costs on 2024. At this point, does it make sense to assume that the costs are generally going to be higher? And do you have an overall sort of cost strategy as you think about framing up 2024 at this point?

Yes. I think that as you can see, we see various commodities moving in different directions, some moving down and some moving up. And obviously, there's some labor pressure. Those are probably the biggest influencers on cost right now. And I think that we'll look at 2024 when we get into January and see how that's looking then.

I have a quick clarification. How does the cost you mentioned for the new battery plant flow through the financials? Is it considered part of R&D costs, or how does it fit in?

That won't show up as R&D, it will show up as an investment as part of our 30% investment in the joint venture.

I wanted to return to the topic of Parts in 2024 and share some higher-level thoughts. Historically, there has been a correlation between declines in PACCAR's truck volumes and pressure on industry profitability, which has affected parts sales, albeit not to the same extent. We are navigating unusual times regarding inventory stocking levels, and I suspect that there may have been some restocking contributing to Parts growth this year. Considering the current situation, where global truck volumes are decreasing and trucker profitability in developed markets seems to be under pressure, how do you see this impacting PACCAR's Parts sales in 2024? I understand you won't provide a specific estimate, but I would like to know your perspective on this for 2024.

Absolutely, Tim. Fun to talk about it. I think that the overarching view I take of it is our parts team has done a great job of transitioning over the past several years. They're not really parts providers; they're transportation solutions providers, right? So they're thinking about what's valuable to the customer and what's valuable in the engagement with the dealer. And they've done a really good job of that. And I think that's foundationally lifted their performance over time, which goes along to the roughly 9% per year growth they've had over the past 20 years. So I think that they've done a really nice job of continuing to evolve the business through the application of technology and analytics, and I expect that that will over the medium term continue and long-term continue. So positive in that regard. I heard everything you said about the sensitivity to market; there's truth in that as well. And that way, we'll just look at what 2024 does.

Okay. All right. Fair enough. And maybe one, just from an inventory level at your dealers, both new and used. Just where do we sit there? And I guess, kind of the related question is the appetite for dealers from a stocking perspective in '24. Just where does that sit? I'm sure it varies by geography, but maybe just some thoughts on that.

Yes. Very good, Tim. You did ask that the first time. Sorry, I missed it. We saw that there was probably strong interest in having enough inventory when supply was limited. And I think that was mitigated for a little bit. I would say things are more back to normal in terms of overstock, destock, and kind of sitting at a level where inventory feels like a rational and healthy level for our dealers now.

Maybe just starting on Europe. So obviously, a lot of talk about U.S. and Canada on this call, but what are you guys seeing from an order perspective within Europe that's kind of underpinning a weaker outlook for 2024 relative to the U.S.?

Yes. I think that what we're seeing in Europe is like we have good fill going into the first quarter. It feels like the general economies over there feel a bit more moderated than they are here. And so there's probably more contemplation going on within the customer base there.

No, I think that's absolutely correct. The market is a little bit softer there. And that's why we're forecasting a market between 250,000 and 300,000 for next year. So that's somewhat of a decline compared to this year.

Understood. And then in the U.S., can you just speak to a little bit of what you're hearing by customer side? So any major divergence in order activity from small versus medium versus large fleets?

I think it's kind of interesting is that like we said earlier in the macro scale of it, there's a lot of sectors that are doing exceptionally well right now. The vocational sector is probably just spinning up. It's a very strong sector for PACCAR in North America with Peterbilt and Kenworth having roughly 40% of that market. So that's good. We see some real strength in the LTL market as well, we see real strength in the medium-duty market as well. As I shared earlier, I think that the large truckload carriers are contemplating what they're going to do and thinking about the next three years and keeping their fleets at a young spot. And I think for all our customers, there's the advantage of the new truck, right? If the truck is providing a 7% benefit in fuel economy, it's compelling reasons to buy that truck, plus the drivers love it. So those things factor in, and it kind of gives you a walk through across the sectors of the market.

So your 2024 U.S. and Canada Class 8 forecast, it reflects what seems to be a smaller decline than some may have feared. My question is, given you guys have higher exposure to infrastructure than some of your peers, do you think backlog can do even better than this forecast in the U.S. that is?

Better than the forecast in terms of?

Our strong presence in the vocational segment where we have 40% market share, that strength obviously should translate into PACCAR doing really well next year.

Okay. But relative to the industry forecast, do you think you might be able to outperform, or are you not ready to say that?

Well, I think what we did is we gave the forecast with the range because that's what we think the range could be, right? That's why we came out 260 to 300 because that's how we see it.

Okay. And then just one more follow-up. If we do have a higher mix of vocation in the next year or two, can you just talk a bit more about what it could mean for margins and pricing as well as the kind of fluidity of the manufacturing process?

Our truck plants have performed exceptionally well globally over the last few years, demonstrating remarkable skill in building the necessary trucks. I am incredibly proud of their achievements and the results they have produced. If we notice a shift from on-highway to the vocational market, we are well-prepared for that change. Our factories are capable of producing any truck needed, and our teams excel in delivering them. I believe this shift will benefit us and will be advantageous for PACCAR and our customers.

Congratulations. I want to take a moment to discuss the joint venture. I have two questions. First, regarding CapEx, you mentioned it could range from $600 million to $900 million. If we assume you receive all necessary approvals, does this suggest that for 2025 and 2026, we could anticipate total firm CapEx exceeding $1 billion?

Let's go for that question, and then you can do for the second one, Harrie, if would take it.

So the $600 million to $900 million investment in the joint venture will be showing up as an investment. It will not show up as our capital investment plan. So the capital numbers we just mentioned for this year and next year are without the joint venture.

Okay. And then question two, I'm thinking back to the future here, 21 gigawatts at the factory. But if I want to bring it into something that I can convert into trucks. So if I think of 21 gigawatt and maybe your smaller trucks are 250 to 300-kilowatt hour batteries and your larger trucks are kind of 600, 750-kilowatt hour battery. So I'm just going to take an average of 500. Are we talking about kind of 40,000 to 50,000 vehicles a year that this plant could theoretically battery, and then you would have a 30% interest in that, that shows up as other income investment in joint venture?

Yes, Jeff, that is perfect math. I think you can use that, and you probably can go back to the future with that.

So I just wanted to just follow up on one of the earlier questions. What percentage of your mix is typically the large truckload? And then within the 2024 trucks, is there any change in mix of sales with the MX versus not? Is that mix going higher or lower?

On the mix of sales, I mean, I think that you can kind of see variance within the model, right? I think if you're asking is like you could look at fleets and customers in the midsized over-the-road segments being a big part of it, vocational is kind of a part of it, then you put the LTL as a part of it in the greater than 160 Class 8 markets. And I think they split up is the biggest part of that is the truckload, and then obviously the LTL combined, and then you get into the vocational is next behind that. So that's kind of how we think of it, and we don't really worry through what the percentage of each will be because there's such overlap between them.

And then any changes again in what you're selling for '24 if MX penetration is higher, lower, or unchanged?

Yes. We think the MX engine is going to be doing really well next year, right? It was 43% of our build in the quarter this quarter. And we expect to see that growing. We've been working through supply constraints on it. And as we work through that, we think there's great upside for that next year.

Okay. Any color on how to think about the FinCo margins from here, loss provisions up a little bit. But how do we think about FinCo from here?

FinCo should continue to be strong in the fourth quarter and next year. Credit losses were $6 million in the quarter, but that's really a very small number to the total almost $20 billion portfolio. So excellent credit quality. And like I said, we expect the finance company to continue to do well.

Okay. If I could ask one more big picture question. There have been many inquiries about gross margin. Looking back over the past 30 years, you have never achieved a year over 16%, but this year is expected to surpass 19%. This aligns with what you've been discussing. What do you believe is the appropriate new range for PACCAR's gross margin moving forward through the cycle?

Well, I think that the reason we've seen that gross margin is because there is an incredible team of people at PACCAR that are working every day to give our customers great value, and they're succeeding in that. It's a huge part of it. We have a fantastic dealer network. They're doing a great job. And I think our customers are seeing the value in that as well. So that's the overarching things that are driving it up. we aim to continue to deliver on that. I think predicting the future gets a little risky. And we'll look at how it comes through. It depends on the cycles and everything else, but I can't be more pleased with how PACCAR is positioned for the future and what it will be able to deliver.

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, operator.