PepsiCo Inc (PEP) — Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. I hope everyone has had a chance this morning to review our press release and prepared remarks, both of which are available on our website. Before we begin, please take note of our cautionary statement. We may make forward-looking statements on today's call, including about our business plans, guidance and outlook. Forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties and only reflect our view as of today, February 4, 2025, and we are under no obligation to update. When discussing our results, we refer to non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results. Please refer to our fourth quarter 2024 earnings release and 2024 Form 10-K available on pepsico.com for definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures and additional information regarding our results, including a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from forward-looking statements. Joining me today are PepsiCo's Chairman and CEO, Ramon Laguarta, and PepsiCo's Executive Vice President and CFO, Jamie Caulfield. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question. And with that, I will turn it over to the operator for the first question.

Good morning, everyone. I wanted to discuss Frito. There has been significant reinvestment in the business that began over the summer, but it really increased in the fourth quarter, supported by the one-time gain you experienced. However, volumes have decelerated sequentially. Can you elaborate more on the spending and reinvestment in the fourth quarter, especially how much of it was tactical versus setting the strategic groundwork for next year? Currently, it seems that the return on investment from the reinvestment is not particularly strong, given the decline in volumes. Thank you.

Hey, good morning, Lauren. It's Jamie. Yeah, look, we're working hard to get the momentum back into the Frito business and just as importantly back into the salty and savory category. So, this is working for us, working for our customers. So, we're going to continue to invest and what enables us to invest is we're generating productivity. To your point, we did have some help from non-operating gains in the fourth quarter, and the investments are intended to improve the performance in the fourth quarter, but more importantly, to get us off to a good start going into 2025.

Yeah, Lauren, hi, this is Ramon. I want to provide some context on how we feel about the situation. We're encouraged by the category; if you look at the MULO+ and Circana data, the category has started to grow again in the last periods of the year, including P1. That was our primary objective: to return the category to growth in both volume and hopefully some positive pricing. I believe we are achieving that. Consumers are coming back, not in large numbers, but we are seeing growth, which is very positive. We can build on the insights we gained throughout the year to identify the best investments for the category. More importantly, we recognize larger trends where we can innovate and introduce new opportunities to drive additional occasions. Additionally, we see a significant opportunity in the away-from-home sector, which offers a vast potential for us as consumers are spending more time outside their homes. Overall, category growth is returning to solid levels, and we are starting to see some pricing improvements. The consumer and commercial programs for next year look promising, focusing on unmet innovation areas. Specifically for our food business, the away-from-home opportunity is significant; while we have more of our beverage business in that area, there is still much potential for food. This is how we are approaching our investments back into the business. In Q4, as mentioned, we reinvested most of our one-time gains to build the infrastructure needed to seize these opportunities in 2025.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I actually had a question on your guidance for this year. Your EPS guidance assumes some leverage, but not nearly as much as you've reported in prior years. So, just kind of wanted to understand the drivers of this. I assume your productivity savings will remain robust. So, should we assume that the level of investments in your businesses are going to ramp a fair amount this year? And if so, could you maybe give us a little bit more of a sense of the types of investments? For instance, Ramon, are you considering more price investments at Frito? And then, also you guided an EPS range versus your typical percentage increases. Is the idea there that you would ultimately like to have more flexibility this year to maybe push more aggressively on investment levels if needed? Thank you.

I would say that we are focusing on systematic productivity and multiyear programs such as automation, digitalization, global capability centers, and simplifying the company. We believe strongly in this approach. We are reinvesting in price segments where we weren’t previously active for Frito, particularly in the sub-$1 and sub-$2 categories. We are reevaluating our pricing structure for single-serve, multi-packs, and multi-serve options to ensure we attract consumers across different income levels. We are being cautious, as the unemployment situation globally is quite positive, with low rates and better inflation in many markets. However, there is significant volatility due to geopolitical factors and potential government decisions. Therefore, we believe it's wise to set guidance that accounts for these uncertainties while allowing us to invest for the long term and remain flexible to respond to future developments, especially in the first half of the year. Jamie, do you have anything to add regarding ForEx?

I want to add that we have about a 3 point foreign exchange impact. The dollar has strengthened recently, and the peso is the largest factor in that foreign exchange guidance. Additionally, we expect higher net interest expenses. This is partly due to rolling over debt at slightly higher rates, along with increased debt balances from acquiring Siete and the 50% of Sabra that we previously did not own. Furthermore, pension expenses are set to rise a bit. Therefore, while we typically see some leverage from below-the-line items, this time it will present a bit of a headwind. You should anticipate that sector operating profit will grow at a rate exceeding our earnings per share guidance.

Hey, everybody. Good morning. A couple of questions, I guess, on the restructuring and sort of realignments. I guess, the first thing is I don't know if it was 10 years ago, but there were a lot of conversations around splitting beverage and snack as two different businesses. And I just wonder if these restructurings are maybe a prelude to something bigger down the road or maybe what's your appetite for that. And then, I guess, in the midst of a restructuring like this, does that also mean that, any other M&A is off the table after these two recent deals? Thanks.

Okay, Kaumil. The reasons for the restructure are multiple, but I'll summarize. The international growth opportunity is very large for us, and we want to have focus between what is a franchise beverage opportunity and what is mainly a food operating unit opportunity. So, we're separating those two, make sure that we have category focus, but most importantly, we have a consumer-and-franchise-facing organization and a consumer-and-operating-facing organization internationally capturing what is a very large growth opportunity. Now, in the US, we have been investing in systems and we've been investing in data, we've been investing in infrastructure. Now, we're ready to capture the benefits of some of those investments in better short-term cost running the business and eliminate duplications in how we service the two organizations. So, that's an opportunity. We want to continue to have very focused category teams that understand the consumer, innovate, and manage the category separately, but also we see an opportunity to build the future together in a different way. So, if you think about infrastructure, if you think about technology investment, if you think about a lot of the big decisions that we have to make for the future of the business, we have an opportunity to do that in a much more harmonized way in the US. So, those are the three big ideas that I think for the next chapter of the business and our accelerated growth ambitions and margin expansion is the best way to run the organization.

Hey, good morning, guys.

Good morning, Dara.

So, just looking at Q4 results for you guys across the CPG industry, clearly a pretty muted top-line growth environment in North America. You touched on Frito-Lay North America already, but I just love to get a bit more granular on how you're specifically managing the business differently in 2025 relative to the back half of last year on both the Frito-Lay and beverage side of the business and areas you're emphasizing more such as innovation, et cetera, and just sort of the tweaks in strategy in light of that sustained environment? And also, just can you give us a quick update on performance in Mexico in Q4, somewhat tied into the same vein of a subdued consumer environment? So, any update there would be helpful. Thanks.

Thank you, Dara. I'd like to start by emphasizing that our international business remains our biggest growth opportunity, and we've consistently invested in it over the past decade. We will keep investing to develop our capabilities and scale the business while maintaining high margins. Currently, our international business is nearing $40 billion, contributing positively to PepsiCo. We're building scale and leveraging that growth effectively. In North America, we're optimistic about our observations, particularly in the beverage sector, where we're seeing continuous margin improvement. A few years ago, enhancing our beverage margins became a key objective for us, and we see a path toward mid-teens margins. However, we believe there's room for improvement on beverage sales. This year, our focus is to expand margins while also accelerating top-line growth through better pricing strategies and targeted innovations, particularly in zero-calorie options and functional hydration, as well as in categories where we lead, like teas and coffees. We're also committed to improving operational efficiency throughout our beverage operations. In the snacks sector, after five years of rapid growth and gaining nearly 200 basis points of market share, 2024 has seen a slowdown. Our top priority this year is to stabilize the category, attracting consumers back through effective ROI investments. We're beginning to see positive volume growth and slight pricing improvements in the category recently. Frito has a strong plan for 2025, aiming for better execution in pricing and innovations. We're reallocating our marketing dollars towards healthier options and snacks with no artificial ingredients under the Simply brand, emphasizing baked products, lightly salted items, portion control, single servings, and multi-packs to align with consumer trends. We're also focusing on increasing availability away-from-home, not just through traditional snack bags but by offering more elevated ready-to-eat and mini-meal options. Our recent acquisitions of Siete and Sabra support this strategy, providing healthier snack options and aligning with meal solutions. We will discuss these broad strategies further at CAGNY regarding our future plans.

Hey, thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Hey, Ramon, I'd like to pick up on the comments from the previous question related to Frito, and I guess, the focus on some of the more positive choices. And I guess, as we step back, right, and we've all been trying to understand both the Frito share and the category, how much of it is just simply price got ahead of the consumers' wallet, how much of this is now a change in preference, right, is healthier, a lot more important objective from here, and then, I guess, the last is just, where Frito kind of fits in mini-meals, because meals have become more expensive, and is there a migration to like, I don't know, a dollar menu relative to a bag of Lays and a Pepsi. So, against those three things, which one is the most important? And specifically, is there something that you're hearing from consumers that is causing a refocus on the more positive choices?

It's a great question and a very strategic one. When we speak to consumers, value is the primary factor in their decision-making, which has contributed to the slowdown in the category over the past year. We believe that focusing on value is crucial as consumers navigate various price points and options to maximize their disposable income. Our strategies around pricing, sizing, and promotions are designed to enhance ROI and increase the category's value. There's a growing awareness among consumers regarding the food and beverages they choose, which has evolved over several years, particularly in the US and globally, with European consumers being more advanced in this regard. We've noted an increase in discussions on social media that reflect changing behaviors, suggesting an acceleration in the US market that we are ready to tap into. Portion control is a key strategy, allowing consumers to enjoy smaller servings of their favorite products, ideally those that are improved with lower sodium, lower fat, and no artificial ingredients. Additionally, consumers are seeking more functional snacks, such as those high in protein or whole grains. Our brands like SunChips, Stacy's, and Quaker are innovating with these aspects in mind, focusing on healthier frying methods and whole grain options. Our partners have also been instrumental in providing us with the retail space and tools needed to make an impact, which will be significant in 2025. We're adjusting much of our advertising and marketing towards these opportunities. Another important area is mini-meals, which reflects a trend towards smaller, more frequent meals rather than larger ones. We're aiming to meet consumer needs for convenient 200 to 300 calorie snacks that can sustain them until their next meal or activity. The same principles apply to the beverage sector, where price points and partitioning are essential. We're offering healthier, functional options like zero-calorie drinks and enhancing the out-of-home experience with products like Pepsi DRIPS, along with other solutions for our away-from-home business. In summary, this is a three-pronged strategy addressing both food and beverages, and we are confident in our ability to meet evolving consumer preferences in the coming years.

Hi, good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask about your low-single-digit organic sales guidance for 2025. Can you comment how much is the international contribution versus the North America expectations? And specifically, North America, you called out the performance to improve gradually as the year progresses. Can you give us some sense of when you expect North America to improve? And kind of what are the key drivers of that improvement in '25? Thank you.

Hi, Filippo, it's Jamie. As we mentioned earlier, we anticipate that North America's performance will gradually improve throughout the year. Our guidance of low-single-digits aligns with our exit rate. Given the current global uncertainty, we believe this top-line guidance is cautious. The acceleration in North America can be attributed to many of the points Ramon has discussed earlier, including innovation, exploring new markets, and increasing focus on away-from-home offerings. Additionally, international markets have been performing strongly, and we expect them to remain resilient and play a significant role in our results for 2025.

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Hope you're doing well. So, Ramon, you mentioned in response to Lauren's question that you're kind of encouraged by some of the trends that you're seeing in salty more recently. And I know throughout this call you kind of touched on a lot of the things that the company is doing to improve performance around affordability, innovation, et cetera. But just over the past year, category growth has been choppy and we've seen kind of these periods of growth kind of ultimately reverse. So, I just would be curious, as you look at it today, is there something that you're seeing that's different that gives you greater confidence that the category is on much better footing today as you move into the balance of '25. Thanks.

Yeah. And I think, listen, I don't think we can read '24 in isolation from the previous three years. Otherwise, I think we're missing some of the major impacts on consumers, both lifestyle, moving from home into away-from-home and disposable income challenges with inflation. So, we look at '24 in the context of the last four years and we say, okay, Frito-Lay and the category has grown above our long-term expectations. Frito-Lay grew 8% in the last four years. That's a pretty good compound rate for a company of that scale and that development. So that's positive. And Frito-Lay has, I think, gained almost 200 bps of share of market. So that is the contextual reality to understand '24 as a normalization year, inflation going back to normal levels both on the cost of inputs and the consumer side, and the overall trends in the category. Now, yes, we're encouraged by the fact that we're seeing more occasions coming into the category in the last three months of the year. And that is encouraging because we see consumers coming back to consume our products, consume the products that are being offered by the category. Now, there is a higher level of consumption in the value segments of the category, but it's also more occasions coming in the premium segments of the category, which also helps us to understand the way to address that opportunity, both with good offerings on the value side, but also innovation and good consumer solutions that our consumers are willing to pay more on the premium side. And that's why what I said we're encouraged. I think our commercial plans address the opportunities at both ends of the category and also trying to be very cautious and always having ROI at the center of our decisions, not only for PepsiCo but for the full category, which we think we are guardians of this category for the long-term. And that's why we're making some of the decisions we're making.

Thank you, and good morning. I don’t want to repeat what’s already been said, but I would like to explore the topic of Frito investments a bit more, particularly regarding pricing and value. I appreciate your earlier comments, Ramon, but I am trying to clarify this point since it seems that this is an area where clear and considered investments have not yet been made. This is evident because Frito's pricing is still positive this quarter despite the tactical initiatives you mentioned. Your comments today indicate a potential shift in this area, suggesting that Frito's pricing could start to decline as we enter 2025. I completely understand the risks involved in reversing pricing strategies. However, my question is about the risks of not investing more in price to boost volume, especially considering that we have seen category volumes and your portfolio's volumes decline and fall short of expectations for about 18 months. I sense a bit more certainty in your response, but I just want to...

No, I wouldn't assume that we're going to have negative pricing. I don't think that's our strategy. What I'm saying is we will have more targeted offerings to consumers, particularly concerning price options, allowing us to set prices and sizes that provide consumers with choices without undermining our pricing or the category's overall value. For instance, in the multi-bag business, we will offer lower counts, such as eight count, 15 count, 18 count, and 20 count. This gives consumers various options, allowing them to select an 18-count at the beginning of the month and perhaps switch to a six-count or eight-count as their budget allows later in the month. This is one approach. Similarly, with single-serve products, we've always had a 2-for-$1 option in limited channels, but now we'll introduce a sub-$2 option that we previously didn’t have. We'll create multiple options for different occasions. Additionally, our DSD system enables us to distribute various price packs tailored for specific customers or points of sale throughout the year. These capabilities are already in place. We'll have the right offerings, executions, and partnerships with our customers to continue driving value for consumers, our partners, and ourselves. I don't believe we will experience negative pricing. Instead, we will implement a more strategically focused price pack and execution plan, which we think will promote growth in the category, especially considering the changes in consumers' disposable income following the years of high inflation.

Thank you. Good morning. Just want to come back to Frito, really not as much the pricing piece, but some of the other spending. At the end of Lauren's question, you were saying you reinvested most of the one-time gains in infrastructure. And I just want to maybe understand a little bit better what that is. I mean, I think the optics she pointed out are a little funny, but if we understand that better, I think that's helpful. And just a little bit related, you said that the percentage of sales for advertising and marketing went up in 4Q. Can you maybe touch on what your expectations are for 2025 for that?

I'll start with the A&M. I'd expect our A&M to be pretty consistent as a percent of sales in 2025.

Investments and how we reinvested them?

Yeah. I think going back to the investments, I think we continue to think about long-term portfolio evolution. So, continue to invest more on the future platforms that we're trying to create, whether it's portion control platforms, whether it's permissible platforms, whether it's away-from-home platforms, all of those require investments upfront, especially away-from-home requires some investments to be able to capture new channels and new opportunities. The same with some of the new platforms that we have to invest to get it off the ground. That's why my comment on Q4 reinvesting on those platforms. But again, we're trying to run the business for the long-term, trying to establish good options for the consumer in all the different price segments, move the portfolio to where we think are the new pockets of demand, again, lower-fat products, lower-sodium products, better ingredients on legumes and rice and some other ingredients, giving consumers higher protein, all the different functionalities that consumers are looking for as they enjoy tasty snacks. And then, again, the away-from-home opportunity being much bigger, both with mini-meals and some ready-to-eat solutions that our brands can participate, we're seeing high demand and that will require investments to be able to capture for the long term.

Hey, can you hear me?

Yes. Hi, Drew.

Hey, there. Thanks for taking the question. So, I think this is the first quarter in a while where energy wasn't specifically mentioned in the prepared remarks. So, wondering any change in view of the category or PepsiCo's platform in the category. And I know the company has previously said you feel good about the service levels and execution, but maybe any color on what the company has planned from a planning or execution perspective to drive growth in that part of the portfolio, or if there's anything that the partnership could be doing differently or better from your perspective? Thank you.

Thank you. We believe energy remains a key component of our beverage growth strategy in the US. There is a consistent demand for energy products throughout the day, and our portfolio, which includes both our brands and those we distribute, meets that need. We are providing our consumers and customers with a comprehensive solution. There is no specific update because nothing noteworthy has changed.

Hey, guys. This is Greg on for Robert. I was just wondering if you could please talk a bit about the PBNA pricing strategy for 2025 and then a bit more about higher thinking of promo in that segment. And then, as a quick other follow-up, maybe just touch on the incrementality of Baja Blast and just how you guys are thinking about the Mountain Dew franchise? Thank you.

Baja Blast is a significant component of our strategy to enhance Mountain Dew's contribution to our beverage growth. It's a substantial franchise, nearing $1 billion when considering our away-from-home and retail business. We believe it plays a crucial role in increasing Mountain Dew's appeal, particularly among Gen Z and in regions where our core Mountain Dew presence is still developing. Therefore, we see a strong potential for growth with this brand and will continue to invest in it as a key initiative for the year. We are advancing our plans for Baja Blast, including its presence during the Super Bowl and a year-long program to further promote this product. We believe it is a sustainable offering that attracts new consumers to the franchise. On the topic of pricing strategy, we maintain a disciplined approach in category pricing through various price packs and channel distributions. We will continue to focus on creating value for our partners and consumers by providing optimal choices in pricing and promotional offerings that enhance category value and profitability for all stakeholders.

Hi, thank you for the question. I noticed that when you discussed the factors affecting the slowdown in salty snacks, you didn't mention increased GLP usage. A detailed study by Numerator Cornell suggests that salty snacks were likely the category most affected by GLP usage. Do you agree with this assessment, or do you think it exaggerates the impact? Also, protein drinks seem to be the fastest-growing segment of the drinks market. Are you considering becoming more aggressive in that category, given its growth? Thank you.

Yeah, great. Listen, on the protein beverages, for sure, we're trying to participate in that with a sense of urgency. We're trying to participate, in general, in the functionality evolution of the beverage category, both from the functional hydration point of view and there with Gatorade and Propel. And we see the opportunity to continue to create more value, both in terms of hydration by Hydration plus protein as well in that space. But yes, in terms of protein, both through Muscle Milk and some other innovations, we're looking at participating in that category, which as you were saying, it is growing faster than total LRB. So, for sure, that is an opportunity that we're... We are continuing to closely analyze GLP, and at this time, we notice that lower levels of adoption and the fluctuation of people entering and exiting treatment have resulted in minimal impact on our business and category. Nevertheless, it’s clear that American consumers are becoming more aware of health and wellness, partly due to discussions surrounding obesity medications and other health topics. This heightened awareness is influencing consumer behavior, which we are addressing through our strategies, particularly in portion control. Portion control has been a key strategy for us for years, along with the gradual evolution of our portfolio to include lower sodium, lower fat, lower sugar, positive ingredients, plant-based proteins, and whole grains. These strategic adjustments have been ongoing, and we are enhancing our offerings to provide consumers with various options for different occasions. While we haven't seen a direct effect from GLP, there is increased conversation on social media about health and wellness, which is impacting the consumption of food and beverages. We are well-positioned with our extensive portfolio to meet these evolving demands. This approach isn't new; it reflects a long-term strategy we've been developing through innovation and acquisitions. Our acquisitions of companies like Siete and Sabra are part of this strategy, allowing us to innovate and expand into new areas like meals, where we required additional platforms to leverage growth opportunities.

I'll just add, I think the protein opportunity is beyond protein beverages. So, if you look at the Quaker today, we've got a number of offerings that are high protein in the breakfast occasion and I think there's a lot more opportunity to expand that.

Hi, thank you. So, number one, just on Europe, this has been a segment that has actually seen kind of successfully driven an improvement of volume just as even as pricing has normalized. What specific about what's going on in Europe that has allowed you to see that positive balance of delivery over the course of this year? And do you think this performance is sustainable going to next year? And then just connected, I think there was some view that international profit strength could fund some of the investments in North America. Would you continue to have that view given what we're seeing in the currency environment? So, just the concept of international still being able to give you that profit lift, so as to fund some of the things that you want to do in North America? So, thanks for those two.

Yeah, great. So, international continues to be our largest value-creation opportunity, both in the top-line and margin expansion. If you look at the margin expansion of international in the last couple of years, it's very remarkable. And I wouldn't say that international will fund the US, but as we met as a company in its totality, obviously, international now is a great source of top-line, is a great source of profit and it gives us flexibility to be much more flexible, I guess, in how we allocate resources and grow the overall business. With regards to Europe, it's just a, I would say, consistent strategy by our teams. I think the teams have done a great job in being very balanced in simplifying the business, extracting unnecessary costs from the P&L and reinvesting those in growth in platforms that have been very good for us long-term, zero-sugar beverages, lower-sodium and lower-fat snacks and executing better in terms of availability, affordability and entering new spaces like away-from-home. So, they've been executing very well the strategy of the business, starting, I would say, from a very intentional reduction of cost to reinvest in top-line. And in a difficult context like the European markets with large retailers, they've done a great job. And yes, we think that this is sustainable, we think this will continue in this year and coming years. And, yes, the opportunities to grow per caps in Europe are still very large and we have very good teams in the markets and very good strategies to deploy our capabilities against the market.

Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Ramon, I wanted to take a step back here and give you the opportunity to perhaps level set on the company's longer-term organic sales guidance of 4% to 6%. So, not asking to be redundant in any way, but pulling together a lot of themes on the call, it seems like you see issues in the snacks business as more transitory or cyclical as opposed to secular. You sound confident on the strength of the business outside the US, but perhaps maybe cautiously optimistic you have the right plan in place to return Snacks to growth, time will tell. But as we sit here today, can you maybe comment on your level of confidence these are indeed transitory issues facing the business and that 4% to 6% is still the right growth rate for your current portfolio on an intermediate-term basis? Thank you.

Thank you. Great question. And I think obviously, we see our long-term growth of the business in those levels 4% to 6%, and we're obviously going to try to go for the upper end of the long-term guidance. Again, very high growth in international. We're very confident that our North America business will accelerate this year. We're very confident in our plans and our long-term. And we see opportunities, especially away from home as billions of occasions in a daily basis that we need to go and capture with much more intentional products and consumer-facing go-to-market. So, those are big opportunities. We remain very committed, and we also remain very committed to translate that growth into a high single-digit EPS. And if you look at our last five years, we've been delivering above our long-term guidance, both in top-line and bottom-line, and we don't see any reason why we should not continue to deliver at those high levels if you take the next five years in context. So, thank you very much. This has been a good conversation and really appreciate your questions. Thank you for staying invested in our business. We look forward to the meeting in CAGNY, and also hope that you guys enjoy our products during this weekend Super Bowl game. So, thank you.