PepsiCo Inc (PEP) — Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. I hope everyone has had a chance this morning to review our press release and prepared remarks, both of which are available on our website. Before we begin, please take note of our cautionary statement. We may make forward-looking statements on today's call, including about our business plans, updated 2025 guidance and outlook. Forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties and only reflect our view as of today, April 24, 2025, and we are under no obligation to update. When discussing our results, we refer to non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results. Please refer to our first quarter 2025 earnings release and first quarter 2025 Form 10-Q available on pepsico.com for definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures and additional information regarding our results, including a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from forward-looking statements. Joining me today are PepsiCo's Chairman and CEO, Ramon Laguarta, and PepsiCo's Executive Vice President and CFO, Jamie Caulfield. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question. And with that, I will turn it over to the operator for the first question.

Hi, good morning. I have a question on Frito. Last quarter, you emphasized your step-up investments with a particular focus on improved price pack architecture, and then also an emphasis on the sizable away from home opportunity. So, Ramon, I'd be curious to hear how some of those investments are paying off? And then, if you're making any changes to your strategy, especially given the pressured consumer environment? For instance, do you now see a need to increase your investments to ultimately return Frito back to growth? Thank you.

Hey, Bonnie. So, I think we're executing the playbook that we talked about late last year, early this year, and the playbook has multiple legs. One is, as you said, granular, good return on invested value investments. The second is portfolio transformation. And the third is operational excellence in a broader way, execution, and cost. So, we're executing the three pillars with a sense of urgency at Frito. And we're starting to see the returns on some of the value and new price point investments that we're making. It's still early in the rollout of the strategy, but if you think about our dual size strategy in single serve, so below $2, above $2 where we have executed that strategy, we're seeing a meaningful improvement in units, especially when we attach the kind of the below $2 to meal deals. And that is especially in convenience stores. We're also seeing, when you take multi-packs and multi-pack has been a big growth segment of the business for the last few years. We're seeing the 10-count assortment. We've increased that assortment as an entry, much lower price point for consumers. That's also delivering good returns. So, as we're optimistic that as we execute the full playbook, including take home eventually later in the year, that that's going to keep consumers in the category, and it's going to increase the frequency of consumption of those consumers, which at the end is what we're trying to do with new price pack. At the same time, we're working hard at portfolio transformation, and that is a key pillar, offering consumers more options where consumers want to go. And basically here is more permissibility, more functionality in our snacks. And we're also working on improving the operational excellence of Frito, both in terms of rightsizing the cost and improving the field rates and improving the granular execution in go-to-market. Frito went through an SAP implementation, it just finished. And like any big system implementation, there have been some learnings for the organization. I think in the coming months that will be behind us, and it will clearly have an impact on improved service levels and better visibility to execution. So, that is the full playbook and we will keep investing and we'll keep making sure that that business continues to grow for the long-term and that's the perspective that we're putting on the business all the time.

Great. Good morning. I was hoping that you could maybe just decompose in a bit more detail just the drivers of the reduced full-year earnings outlook. With organic growth not really changing in the aggregate, the implication is that the vast majority of that, if not all of that is related to tariffs. If that's right, just kind of the pockets of tariff friction that you're encountering and plans long-term to offset it, assuming they stick around. But then also if there are other things in there, if there are incremental investments, just sort of the relative bridge between prior full-year outlook and today? Thank you.

Hey, Steve, it's Jamie. The rationale behind the guidance adjustment that we announced today is really driven by three things in a number of ways that are a little bit related to one another. The first is tariffs. So, that is new news since we gave our initial guidance at the beginning of the year. So, we've factored in what we know about tariffs today and we factored in mitigation plans, which we continue to work. Some of those we'll be able to execute more quickly. Some of those will take more time to execute. The second is just the heightened macro and consumer uncertainty. I'm sure you saw the Consumer Confidence Index that really nosedived. So, relative to where we were three months ago, we probably aren't feeling as good about the consumer now as we were a few months ago. And then third, and this is also related to the consumer picture, is Frito's subdued performance, and we've got clear plans to continue to turn the business around, but that'll take a little while too. Now on the top line guidance, you saw Q1 versus our low-single-digit guide for the year. We put up 1% as we called out in the prepared remarks because our international quarter is only two months for the first quarter. If we included the third month in the first quarter, we would have grown too. So, we're solidly in the band of top line guidance that we gave back at the beginning of the year.

Hey, good morning, everyone. I was wondering if you could talk a bit about the expectations for the international business going forward; clearly, solid 5% growth in the quarter. You mentioned also including the March, total company would have been 2% organic. So, you're expecting acceleration from here? Any color you could provide would be great. Thank you.

Yes, good morning, Filippo. Listen, the international business continues to be the largest growth engine for the company. And we continue to invest in that business. As you well said, it started the year at a good pace, if you take March, even faster. We see the international business continuing those trends during the balance of the year. There are markets that we're seeing a bit of a slowdown in the consumer, namely China. China is a market where we've seen the consumer hurting a little bit. We're seeing Mexico, in a way, impacted by what happens in the U.S. And I think those two markets will continue to be connected in consumer sentiment and probably consumer disposable income as well. We're seeing Europe navigating quite well. The first signs that we have in Europe are positive. We're seeing India in a good place. We're seeing Brazil in a good place. So, overall, the portfolio of markets where we have the highest percentage of business are in a positive place. And we see the international business continuing to contribute to our growth at that mid-single digit. Some markets obviously have high single digits in the balance of the year.

Hey, good morning. So, just wanted to follow-up on Bonnie's question, the magnitude and durability of the volume weakness in Frito in North America continues to disappoint. So, it was helpful to hear about all the fixes you're putting in place here today as well as at CAGNY. Just wanted to get your perspective on if at some point you think we might need a more substantial level of re-investment behind FL&A to turn around trends in that business, some type of more dramatic step up in investment. And maybe you can split that into just potentially the need to reinvest more on pricing in this consumer environment or investing more behind the business, whether it's frontline spend or marketing? And just how you think about that balance in this consumer environment and if you might need more aggressive plans at some point to turn around trends there? Thanks.

We are focused on ensuring the long-term health of our franchise. While we aim to deliver value to consumers, we will not compromise the long-term profitability of our business. We are increasing productivity levels to support our investments, which includes not only revenue management strategies but also improving our execution capabilities. Additionally, as seen in the first quarter, we are actively addressing fixed costs and approaching cost management with greater intent.

Yes, I think the three pillars that we talked about, Dara, they are equally important. So, the value investment is relevant and it impacts our core brands. And I think putting more intelligence behind the investment, making sure that we get the best return for every occasion and for every channel we have the right package versus destroying value by over-investing in value. I think that an intelligent reinvestment of value is an important one. Now, it is as critically important for us to make sure that we participate in all the sub-segments of the market where the consumers are going. And the consumers love existing spaces. But they are also driving consumption in other spaces where we need to participate very intentionally. And that's what we're doing. There's some moves we're making organically; we obviously have visibility to next year's innovation plan. They're very strong. And we're also making some acquisitions, as you saw, between South Russia, that we have now two platforms to drive additional participation in new segments. And the third pillar is not something that is small. The operational excellence of the business is improving. We now have better data, we have better systems. We have talent stability. COVID was a disruption for the organization. We have better leaders in place, and we've gone through a system implementation that has been, in a way, a little bit complex as you imagine a business of that size, but that's also behind us. So, you should think about multiple-vector execution that will drive the performance of the business; value being important and good return on investment in value. It's how we're thinking about our investments in that part of the business.

Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking the question. I wanted to go back, sorry, to Frito North America. As you look at the price letters, are you seeing more declines in the higher price points or in bigger packs? So in other words, on a comparable basis, and Ramon, you spoke over the past few quarters about moving to reach your multi-pack, reaching 5 billion against like 1 billion business before. Is that the 4% decline that we saw? I think in the 10Q, correct me if I'm wrong, just on Frito-Lay North America in declining volumes. On average, are you seeing a much deeper decline in those large packs? Where consumers may be feeling more pressure because of the cash outlay? And conversely, you're seeing less or smaller declines in the small packs. I mean, I'm trying to gauge where, on a mixed neutral basis, are you seeing those movements and how you reacting to those, or in other words, have you got tapped off that multi-pack at some point and both of them are declining at similar paces and how to protect that?

Yes, revenue management is becoming more complicated as consumers face challenges with their disposable income, which varies across different income levels in America. We are noticing that consumers now place significant value on absolute dollar amounts. As a result, entry price points and the total amount spent per unit are particularly important metrics for us. We are focusing on these entry price points to ensure we're not asking consumers to spend large amounts to engage with our brands. This is why we are offering smaller single servings and multi-packs, which help retain consumers and encourage frequency of purchase. Consumer behavior changes throughout the month; at the beginning, they may prioritize price per kilogram or larger quantities at a good value, whereas by the end of the month, they might focus more on the absolute price per unit. It’s complex and varies by location and demographic groups. Our data, insights, and tools can help us maximize returns on investment in this area. Additionally, convenience stores are experiencing reduced traffic, which affects our relevance in that channel for both beverages and snacks. Supporting our convenience store partners to drive traffic and increase purchase frequency is crucial. That’s why I mentioned meal deals and specific promotions tailored for that channel, as it's an essential aspect of our business that's currently affecting our single-serve sales.

Great, thanks. Good morning. I was hoping you could talk a little bit around how the business can deal with some of the new legislation around, ingredients and colors. And sort of I know you've got lots of technology and lots of technology and different markets around the world, but if the outlook currently built in some of the incremental costs you'll need to be absorbing to manage through this. And also just any perspective on SNAP. I know there's just a lot out there, but anything you can offer on sensitivity to business or exposure to the business with regard to SNAP. Thanks.

That's great. Two good questions, very relevant. We've been leading the transformation of the industry now for a long time. On sodium reduction, sugar reduction, and better fats, we already have a portfolio when we talk about the U.S. and the food business, over 60% of our business today doesn't have any artificial color, so we're well undergoing that transition. And for example, brands like Lay's will be out of artificial colors by the end of this year. The same with Tostitos. So, some of our big brands, so we're well underway. Ideally, we obviously stand by the science, and we know our products are very safe, and there's nothing to worry about this, but we understand that there's going to be probably a consumer demand for more natural ingredients, and we're going to be accelerating that transition. Ideally, we can do this in a very pragmatic, orchestrated manner as an industry and not create unnecessary panic or chaos. But we'll lead that transition. And in the next couple of years, we'll have migrated all the portfolio into natural colors or at least provide the consumer with natural color options. And obviously, every consumer will have the opportunity to choose what they prefer. So, that's the journey we're undergoing. In terms of SNAP, again, there is a lot of conversation in different states, and we're seeing that some of our categories could be exposed to some restrictions. I think this will have a very limited impact on the business as we are calculating today. And we will need to see how the eventual legislation gets implemented. It's still a lot of unknowns on how this is going to happen.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Ramon, if I could take a step back for a moment, over the last few years, I believe I’ve heard you mention that the focus for the business moving forward is expected to shift more towards international growth. The company has made significant efforts to build and scale its international presence, with more countries now contributing to growth. While some of this focus may be influenced by external factors, when we analyze the top line, it appears that had we had three full months of international revenue, your contribution from international would position you well to sustain long-term growth objectives, even considering a natural slowdown of Frito's growth in North America. Is this an accurate way to understand the situation? Additionally, if that is the case, are we sufficiently scaled to drive profit growth in conjunction with revenue growth, especially with a revenue model that is leaning more heavily on international markets in the coming years? Essentially, is now the right time for international growth to significantly contribute, given that Frito is likely to experience more modest growth over time?

I think there are two key points to consider. This is an important question, Bryan, and it warrants a deeper discussion. International markets will likely remain a significant driver of growth and profit for the long term. If you examine the population sizes inside and outside the U.S. and how we develop our per capita metrics internationally compared to the U.S., it becomes clear that international growth is promising. Fortunately, we are at a stage in the company’s development where that segment is contributing positively. There are two crucial aspects: high growth potential and a strong likelihood of success in most markets, both in beverages and snacks, making it a valuable segment. We will continue to invest in this area, focusing on capacity, talent, market strategies, and brand development. However, I disagree with the notion that the U.S. business cannot grow more rapidly than it currently is. I believe both our beverage and food sectors will continue to expand at a commendable rate in the U.S. The overall opportunities are vast, especially with improved execution and evolving our product offerings, as well as entering new channels like away-from-home consumption. We have substantial potential to introduce our brands into various spaces and leverage our business capabilities. With a more integrated operating model in the U.S., we will have additional resources, reduce duplication, and find synergies that can facilitate growth in new direct-to-consumer and B2B service models. We view the U.S. as a critical growth driver and a source of funding for our international operations, while also representing a growth opportunity for the company that exceeds our current performance. Although the U.S. market faces some challenges due to consumer dynamics, we anticipate a more relevant portfolio, better channel presence, appropriate pricing, and ultimately an improved consumer environment in the U.S. So, in summary, we see international markets as an opportunity that we will pursue with the right investments, talent, and strategic branding efforts, but we also see significant potential for growth in the U.S., where we believe we are well-positioned to succeed.

Thank you. Good morning. I just wanted to unpack the guidance change a little bit further. You touched on the three pieces, the tariffs, the macro uncertainty, and the Frito North America weakness. But the second and third are, have a top line component and you've held the revenue outlook constant. Is it just because of the impact, is it modest enough to be in the wiggle room of low single digits, or is it an offset from international? I guess how do we think about the top line piece that's wrapped into that and then just on the tariff piece. Is your outlook based on current estimates, and I guess just simply, would we be right to assume that if, for example, the 90-day pause gets extended or if there's any changes there, it could certainly drive some upside if you get a little relief out of that?

I believe there were two questions. First, Michael, the momentum in international markets is a key factor in the top-line guidance we reiterated. If you look at the first quarter and adjust for our accounting calendar, we are right in the middle of our low single-digit guidance. Regarding tariffs, we won't delve into detailed analysis. Our guidance is based on current observations. We have considered various scenarios and, based on what we know now, that is what we have incorporated into our guidance.

Hey guys, it's Bring Your Kid to Workday at Jefferies. So, if you don't mind, my daughter Melaina's going to ask the question.

That's awesome.

So what do you think about the launch of GLP-1 oral medications coming to market next year?

We've been transforming our portfolio and will continue to offer consumers options that align with their dietary preferences. Whether they are using GLP-1 medications or not, we will keep providing our products. We’re noticing that GLP-1 consumers are increasing their consumption of protein, fiber, and hydration. I believe we are well positioned in the fiber and hydration categories and plan to expand our product offerings in these areas. However, we need to innovate more in protein, and our teams are actively working on new ideas for both beverages and food products, which you can expect to see by late this year or early next year. Additionally, GLP-1 consumers are incorporating our brands into their choices, although likely in smaller quantities. They are generally opting for smaller portions across the board, so our multi-pack offerings and other options keep our brands relevant. Emphasizing portfolio transformation, portion control, and appropriate offerings will ensure our brands remain pertinent to these consumers. Currently, GLP-1 consumer participation appears to be around 7 or 8%, and there is still plenty of trial and error happening in that space. Nonetheless, I believe this will be significant moving forward, and it's something that every food company is considering, including us as we respond accordingly.

Yes, hi, this is Greg on behalf of Robert. We have two questions regarding the PB&A business. First, could you explain the rationale for acquiring Poppi and your plans for the brand? Secondly, can you discuss the factors influencing PB&A margins, your perspective on that segment, and any updated thoughts on your margin goals for the medium term? Thank you.

Yes, and listen, we're feeling good about our beverage business in North America. And we made choices a few years ago. We're executing those choices, and I think we're executing quite well. And I need to thank the team for their focus and their good execution of the playbook. Now, one of the key pillars was improving the margin of the business. And you can see this in a multi-year trend that we keep improving. Q1 was a good step in the right direction. I think there's opportunities still to become a better operating business and keep driving better excellence out of everything in our value chain from making, moving and selling. So, good progress there. We're also very, very optimistic about our brands and if you think about our soft drink business or CSD business, Pepsi is growing faster than in the last few years. Pepsi actually is starting to gain share of carbonated soft drinks, and it has been the focus on zero sugar. It's been the focus on Pepsi and food and all the activation of the brand in that space that is giving us very good results. We're also happy with Gatorade. Gatorade is also a business that is starting to regain share in the sports drink category. If you add to that Propel and the functional hydration, that space where clearly we're leaders and we keep driving better performance. Now, our powders and tablets, our enhancer business is also gaining share. So that is again a multi-pronged strategy that is starting to deliver for us. So, we feel good about it. There are areas where we need to keep improving, right? So if you think about Mountain Dew, we've been working on it for a while. There's a big relaunch of the brand in a few weeks. We would feel optimistic as well about Baja Blast being a good addition to the portfolio that will drive a structural demand for the brand. So, we're feeling good about both the operating improvement, we're feeling good about some of the brands and we're feeling good about some of the inorganic moves that we're making. Again, this is all subject to regulatory approval. So, when things are approved, then I think we can talk more about Poppi and how we're planning to integrate that into the business.

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Ramon, I wanted to follow-up on your commentary there around beverages and just the commentary around the portfolio. But can you maybe just give us an update on energy drinks? I think it's one of the few categories that has seen some sequential improvement year-to-date from a category perspective. Celsius has seen some improved performance as well. And then, just when you think about your partnership with Celsius, they obviously have brought on a new brand in Alani Nu. So, can you just talk about your willingness to kind of bring that brand on through your distribution network? Thanks.

Yes. Listen, we feel good about energy and we feel good about the strategy and the partnerships that we have in this space. We're having conversations with Celsius, obviously after they acquired new brands, and still I would say early discussions about how we can find ways to participate or not in this new acquisition. It's still too early to make any kind of public comment on this.

Hi, good morning, everyone. I did want to follow-up on a question around PBNA, specifically on the Pepsi brand. It gained market share in the quarter as highlighted in the prepared remarks, which is certainly encouraging. Do you think that this is the start of something that can be a bit more durable? What are your expectations for the brand from here? And then if we take a step back, it's a little bit like Brian's question, but more toward North America and specifically on beverages. Your peers have delivered pretty dynamic results in their North American beverage business in recent years. Certainly, you've been active in the environment as well. But has your thought process on this business changed over time? I will tell you my personal view is that it feels like there's a lot of focus on margins from the investment community and less so from growth certainly that wouldn't be your starting point with your pillars of profitable growth. But maybe just as you canvass this North American beverage environment over the past few years, has that evolved your thinking on what this business is capable of going through the medium term? Thanks so much.

Yes, listen, it's a good, it's a very good question. And as I would refer back to my previous answer, we're feeling very good about the progress that we're making and these large businesses is about clear focus, clear tradeoffs, clear areas of where do you want to improve the business, and over time you execute and we're feeling good about both the operational excellence. So, the margin improvement is not only a margin improvement; it's an operational excellence; it's an operating improvement metrics across making, moving, and selling, and that's where the business is focused. So, it is a long-term improvement in capabilities, in infrastructure, in data and technology, and all that is being rolled out to make the business more capable and more granular and more intelligent. Now, on the brands as well, obviously we have been investing regularly and consistently in our brands with focus on Pepsi and Gatorade and those two brands are starting to gain share. We feel good about the positioning, we'll feel good about the advertising, we'll feel good about the portfolio. If you think about Pepsi Zero, it's a great addition to the portfolio and it's performing very well. If you think about Gatorade, rapid hydration is a big consumer space that we're participating with Gatorade. Gatorade Zero as well has been a good addition to the portfolio, a very, very large scale part of the business now. And we're investing in powders and tablets because we see the consumer moving there. We're now going to have new infrastructure, new assets that help us increase our offerings and probably add more functionality to that part of the portfolio. I think there are still opportunities on the brand. Some of them will be organic, some of that would be inorganically or through partnerships as you mentioned with Celsius on the energy space, with Starbucks on the coffee space. And we have also, I think, a pretty good development of the tea category ahead of us with our partnership with Unilever. So, again, through a partnership, organic or inorganic, I think the portfolio, we have very good strategic intentions of where we want to take the portfolio, where the consumer is going. And we feel good about the progress we are making. This is not going to be an overnight. We knew that. This is going to be a year-after-year progress. But the way the business is performing, the way we are building the talent, the way we are building it step-by-step, the capabilities of the business make us feel very good about this business long-term.

Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Question for Ramon, just on the decision to recast your segment results, but really from a strategic perspective. So, as you're aware, it's not uncommon for such moves to be a precursor to more impactful strategic considerations from a company's board, particularly when a stock's been under pressure. So, I wouldn't expect you to front run anything, of course, on a call like this today. But, perhaps provide context, one, for the decision to recast your segment results. And then, two, what you believe investors may underappreciate about the story of PepsiCo that perhaps becomes more evident with the company's new financial segment reporting. So, thank you for that.

No, Kevin, I think we have a new perspective. As we consider how to maximize the company's growth in the future, we see an opportunity to concentrate more on certain areas of the business, whether it's beverage or foods, or different operating models in our international business. This has primarily influenced the recent adjustments. It creates a distinction between the international FOBO business and the operating units that we manage from manufacturing to sales. This approach allows our international operations, which are currently where we scale, to focus more closely on the value we deliver to partners in the FOBO sector, as well as on the operational infrastructure of our company-owned businesses, including the use of technology and services we provide to our operations. Our objective is to ensure we are well-positioned for the long-term growth of our international business and nothing more. Regarding North America, Quaker has been part of the food sector for a couple of years now, and we are just aligning our thinking and management of the business accordingly. The beverage business will remain distinct. In North America, we are introducing an integration opportunity aimed at running the business more efficiently in the short term, and more importantly, at exploring new avenues for growth in the future. This includes considering shared infrastructure for some of our supply chains and go-to-market strategies in specific channels where I believe combining efforts could yield more value than maintaining separation. This is the rationale behind the changes we've made. The adjustments in North America relate to operations rather than reporting, while the international changes encompass both reporting and operational aspects.

Thanks. Kaumil's daughter took my first question. But, fortunately, I have a backup here. So, last year, you characterized potato chips and other kind of unflavored chip products as being more commoditized. And that was where you wanted to be more forward on your promotional activity. And there's not much talk about that this year. So, Ramon, I wanted to know do you feel like in terms of your value actions, you need to be more active on that part of the portfolio, or do you feel like you've got it where you need to be?

Yes, I believe our strategic intent remains unchanged. In segments where we have less consumer differentiation, we should be more deliberate in our revenue management strategies. Conversely, in areas where our offerings stand out, we can also be more intentional, but with a focus on capturing additional value from consumers who recognize the uniqueness of our products. We're not delving into the specifics here, but our teams are aware of where we create value, which encompasses the product, brand, experience, and various other facets. In categories where we have less differentiation or provide less value, we must narrow the price gap compared to competitors. Therefore, the core strategic principles regarding our pricing and its alignment with value continue to hold true. In fact, I believe we've improved our understanding of our value and its drivers, leading to better alignment of our pricing based on specific situations or brands. The organization has become more sophisticated and insightful about what is essential for our profitability and growth.

Hi, Ramon and Jamie. Good morning, as well. I just wanted to dig into the organic sales growth guidance please, because I think you are now including high inflation economies in that, can I just confirm and what you are building in for the rest of the year as a contribution from these high inflation economies? Thank you.

So, yes, I'll confirm that we do include it. And frankly, that was to put us on a comparable basis with many of our close in peers. It's not going to be a significant part of the revenue generation for the year. And it wasn't a significant contributor in the first quarter.

Yes. Charlie, it's Ravi. It's immaterial and there's no impact on earnings either. Just to make sure we clarify that. Benefit or impact? Nothing.

Great. Okay. I think this is the last question and we close the call by now. Thank you very much for your participation and obviously thank you very much, especially for the trust you have in ourselves and in PepsiCo for your investment. Thank you.