Phillips 66 (PSX) — Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning, and welcome to Phillips 66 third quarter earnings conference call. Participants on today's call include Mark Lashier, President and CEO; Kevin Mitchell, EVP and CFO; Brian Mandell, EVP, Marketing and Commercial; Tim Roberts, EVP, Midstream and Chemicals; and Rich Harbison, SVP, Refining. Today's presentation material can be found on the Investor Relations section of the Phillips 66 website, along with supplemental financial and operating information. We provided supplemental information this morning for Chemicals, Refining and Marketing and Midstream. The remaining supplemental information will be available with the 10-Q filing. We'll return to the normal supplemental release next quarter. Slide 2 contains our Safe Harbor statement. We will be making forward-looking statements during today's call. Actual results may differ materially from today's comments. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included here as well as in our SEC filings. Before we begin our discussion, I would like to highlight that we will be hosting an Investor Day in New York on November 9. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

Thanks, Jeff. Our third quarter results reflect the continued favorable market environment and our strong operating performance. We ran at high rates during the summer driving season to meet peak demand for critical transportation fuels. Our Refining business delivered improved market capture this quarter, supported by strong distillate cracks and wider discounts for heavy sour crudes. In the third quarter, we had adjusted earnings of $3.1 billion or $6.46 per share. We generated $3.1 billion in operating cash flow. We're committed to strong shareholder distributions. During the quarter, we ramped up share repurchases in a meaningful way, purchasing almost $700 million of common stock. Including dividends, we returned $1.2 billion to shareholders. During the quarter, we continued to focus on operating excellence and advancing our strategic priorities. Our enterprise-wide business transformation is underway. The team is implementing key initiatives to deliver results. We look forward to providing more details at our Investor Day next week. In Midstream, we realigned our economic and governance interest in DCP Midstream, LP and Gray Oak Pipeline, LLC. Our economic interest in DCP Midstream increased to 43%, and our economic interest in Gray Oak Pipeline decreased to 6.5%. At the same time, we made an offer to acquire all publicly-held common units of DCP Midstream, LP. Our increased interest in DCP Midstream allows for further integration and optimization across our NGL business. The wellhead to market value chain structure will allow us to capture new commercial opportunities and optimize costs. Additionally, we started up Frac 4 at the Sweeny Hub on time and under budget. In October, Frac 4 achieved full run rates, bringing our total Sweeny Hub fractionation capacity to 550,000 barrels per day. CPChem is pursuing a portfolio of high-return projects, enhancing its asset base as well as optimizing its existing operations. This includes growing its normal alpha olefins business with a second world-scale unit to produce 1-hexene, a critical component in high-performance polyethylene. The unit is being constructed at CPChem's Old Ocean, Texas facility and will produce 586 million pounds per year. CPChem is also building a new propylene splitter at its Cedar Bayou facility, which will expand its capacity by 1 billion pounds per year. Both the 1-hexene and propylene splitter projects are expected to start up in the second half of 2023. CPChem continues to develop two world-scale petrochemical facilities on the U.S. Gulf Coast and in Ras Laffan, Qatar. A final investment decision for the U.S. Gulf Coast project is expected before the end of this year. In Refining, we're converting our San Francisco refinery into one of the world's largest renewable fuels facilities. The Rodeo Renewed project is expected to cost approximately $850 million and begin commercial operations in the first quarter of 2024. Upon completion, Rodeo will have over 50,000 barrels per day of renewable fuels production capacity. Now I'll turn the call over to Kevin to review the financial results.

Thank you, Mark, and hello, everyone. Before I talk about the financials, let me begin by summarizing the accounting impacts of DCP Midstream. On August 17, we completed the merger of DCP Midstream, LLC and Gray Oak Pipeline, LLC. In connection with the transaction, we were delegated governance rights over DCP Midstream, LP and its general partner entities as well as DCP Sand Hills Pipeline, LLC and DCP Southern Hills Pipeline, LLC. Effective August 18, our financial results reflect the consolidation of these entities. So starting with an overview on Slide 4, we summarize these financial results. We reported third quarter earnings of $5.4 billion. We had special items amounting to an after-tax gain of $2.3 billion, including the net gain related to the consolidation of DCP Midstream, Sand Hills Pipeline and Southern Hills Pipeline and the transfer of interest in Gray Oak Pipeline. Excluding special items, adjusted earnings were $3.1 billion or $6.46 per share. The $33 million decrease in the fair value of our investment in NOVONIX reduced earnings per share by $0.05. We generated $3.1 billion of operating cash flow. Capital spending for the quarter was $735 million, including the company's $306 million investment in DCP Midstream, LLC associated with the merger, net of cash acquired. We returned $1.2 billion to shareholders through $466 million of dividends and $694 million of share repurchases. We ended the quarter with 473 million shares outstanding. Moving to Slide 5. This slide highlights the change in adjusted results by segment from the second quarter to the third quarter, including the impact of consolidating DCP Midstream, Sand Hills Pipeline and Southern Hills Pipeline effective August 18. The Midstream segment, Corporate and Other, income taxes and noncontrolling interests are impacted by the consolidations. The higher noncontrolling interest reflects the portion of these entities not owned by Phillips 66. During the period, adjusted earnings decreased $163 million, mostly due to lower results in Refining and Chemicals, partially offset by higher Midstream and Marketing and Specialties results. Slide 6 shows our Midstream results. Third quarter adjusted pretax income was $645 million compared with $292 million in the previous quarter. The consolidation of DCP Midstream results are now reported within NGL and Other. Transportation contributed adjusted pretax income of $229 million, down $21 million from the prior quarter. The decrease was mainly due to lower equity earnings from the Gray Oak Pipeline resulting from the merger. NGL and Other adjusted pretax income was $449 million compared with $282 million in the second quarter. The increase was primarily due to the consolidation of DCP Midstream, Sand Hills Pipeline and Southern Hills Pipeline effective August 18. The fractionators at the Sweeny Hub averaged 429,000 barrels per day, and the Freeport LPG export facility loaded 249,000 barrels per day in the third quarter. Our NOVONIX investment is marked-to-market at the end of each reporting period. The fair value of the investment, including foreign exchange impacts, decreased $33 million in the third quarter compared with a decrease of $240 million in the second quarter. Turning to Chemicals on Slide 7. Chemicals had third quarter adjusted pretax income of $135 million compared with $273 million in the previous quarter. Olefins and Polyolefins adjusted pretax income was $105 million. The $111 million decrease from the previous quarter was primarily due to lower margins resulting from a sharp decline in polyethylene prices. This was partially offset by lower turnaround costs. Global O&P utilization was 90% for the quarter. Adjusted pretax income for SA&S was $60 million, in line with the second quarter. The higher costs in Other mainly reflect legal contingencies. During the third quarter, we received $41 million in cash distributions from CPChem. Turning to Refining on Slide 8. Refining third quarter adjusted pretax income was $2.8 billion, down from $3.1 billion in the second quarter. The decrease was primarily due to lower realized margins, partially offset by higher volumes. Our realized margins decreased by 6% to $26.58 per barrel, while the composite global 3:2:1 market crack decreased by 22%. Pretax turnaround costs were $225 million, in line with the previous quarter. Crude utilization was 91% in the third quarter and clean product yield was 85%. Slide 9 covers market capture. Our composite global 3:2:1 market crack for the third quarter was $36.29 per barrel compared to $46.72 per barrel in the second quarter. Realized margin was $26.58 per barrel and resulted in an overall market capture of 73%. Market capture in the previous quarter was 61%. Market capture is impacted by the configuration of our refineries. We have a higher distillate yield and lower gasoline yield than the 3:2:1 market indicator. During the third quarter, the distillate crack decreased $8.14 per barrel, and the gasoline crack decreased $11.84 per barrel. Losses from secondary products of $3.50 per barrel or $0.47 per barrel higher than the previous quarter. Our feedstock loss of $1.48 per barrel was in line with the previous quarter. Feedstock advantage from widening heavy sour crude differentials was offset by the impact of higher feedstock costs relative to dated Brent in the Atlantic Basin. The other category reduced realized margins by $1.29 per barrel. This category includes RINs, freight costs, in-product realizations and inventory impacts. Moving to Marketing and Specialties on Slide 10. Adjusted third quarter pretax income was $847 million compared with $765 million in the prior quarter. Marketing and Other adjusted pretax income was $717 million, up $61 million from the second quarter. The improvement reflects higher international margins, partially offset by lower domestic results, including inventory impacts. Specialties generated third quarter adjusted pretax income of $130 million. The $21 million increase was largely due to improved base oil margins. On Slide 12, the Corporate and Other segment had adjusted pretax costs of $246 million, $11 million higher than the prior quarter. The increase was mainly due to consolidating DCP Midstream interest expense of $34 million, partially offset by higher interest income. Slide 12 shows the change in cash during the third quarter. We started the quarter with a $2.8 billion cash balance. Cash from operations was $3.1 billion. During the quarter, we funded $735 million of capital spending, including the company's $306 million investment in DCP Midstream, LLC associated with the merger, net of cash acquired. We returned $1.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Our ending cash balance was $3.7 billion. We ended the quarter with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 29%, including the consolidation of DCP Midstream. This concludes my review of the financial and operating results. Next, I'll cover a few outlook items. In Chemicals, we expect the fourth quarter global O&P utilization rate to be in the mid-90s. In Refining, we expect the fourth quarter worldwide crude utilization rate to be in the low to mid-90s and pretax turnaround expenses to be between $180 million and $220 million. As a result of strong turnaround execution and timing, we expect full year turnaround expenses to be lower than our original $800 million to $900 million of guidance. We anticipate fourth quarter Corporate and Other costs to come in between $300 million and $325 million pretax, reflecting a full quarter of DCP Midstream interest expense.

Kevin, could you share your thoughts on the balance sheet moving forward? It seems you're back to pre-COVID capitalization levels, but the absolute debt with DCP is still about 30% higher than it was before the downturn. How are you considering the future positioning of the balance sheet and its impact on your cash return strategy?

Yes, Doug, thanks for the question. We are confident that even with the consolidation of DCP, our debt-to-capital ratio, after accounting for cash, is below 30%. We view this as a positive indicator. Additionally, our debt-to-EBITDA metrics remain robust. However, we do have approximately $18 billion in debt on a fully consolidated basis. Given our strong financial position and cash generation, we plan to continue reducing our debt. Keep in mind that we have not yet financed the buy-in of the public, which adds pressure to our balance sheet, regardless of how we handle the funding with debt and cash. While we aim to make debt reductions, unlike in prior years when priority was given to eliminating pandemic-related debt, we are now in a position where debt reduction does not have to take precedence over cash distribution. Our cash generation and balances are sufficient to allow us to gradually reduce our debt while still returning a significant amount of cash to shareholders.

I'm trying not to ask anything you won't answer since you have the Analyst Day coming up. I'm steering clear of some obvious questions, but I want to touch on something that came up in the previous call with Marathon. They mentioned that the mid-cycle outlook has improved. In the past, you talked about mid-cycle cash flow being around $6 billion to $7 billion. Without wanting to preempt next week, could you share how you view the future outlook for mid-cycle earnings in the Refining business?

Yes, Doug, we are going to cover that a bit next week. I think that there's two things to take into consideration there. As the market mid-cycle moves, it has our ability to generate EBITDA move. And certainly, the piece that we control, we know we'll be moving and we'll provide details next week. As far as the market, we're still watching that to see how that evolves. But we'll be more focused on what we're doing to drive our mid-cycle going forward.

Yes, I wanted to start off discussing the waterfall on Slide 20 regarding the Central Corridor. The capture rates in that area are really exceptional. I'm curious if there's anything unusual that we should take advantage of, considering that the other category can fluctuate a lot. How much did WCS contribute this quarter? Or, given that it usually has a delayed impact, will that be more of a benefit in the fourth quarter?

Yes, Neil, we're very pleased with the Central Corridor performance. There are a number of factors that differentiated the second quarter to the third quarter and a number of things that happened in the third quarter. I'll let Rich dive into the details around that.

Okay, Mark. Neil, good question. And yes, the Mid-Con Central Corridor had a very good quarter. Let me start by resetting the basis for the second quarter. Second quarter for us was a heavy turnaround in this region. So a lot of the difference you're seeing is the lack of turnarounds in the third quarter. Our mechanical availability during the third quarter was very good. We had high utilizations sitting at around 93% and strong clean product yields sitting at 88% for the corridor. So good performance on both of those. Of course, those directly relate to increased volumes. And with the lack of turnarounds, we had a lot lower operating expense for the quarter as well. As you indicated as well, Neil, the market conditions were quite favorable for our kit. We saw widening Canadian spreads which are quite favorable for us as well as a very strong distillate crack in the region. And that also plays well for our kit, which is a strong distillate producer. So I think what you're seeing here is a strong operating performance in favorable market conditions playing out for us in the third quarter.

Yes. And maybe we could stay on that point around Western Canadian crude. It has been pretty wide here and it's widened out in the curve for '23 as well. So would love your guys' perspective on what you think is going on there. And given it does tend to come in at a lag, should we see a disproportionate impact of that tailwind in Q4?

Neil, this is Brian. I'll start by saying that WCS started weakening with unplanned maintenance. WCS was forced into the Gulf Coast and then forced to compete with SPR barrels. We've released about 180 million barrels of SPR crude. Most of that has been sour so we competed with WCS. High sulfur fuel oil has also been weak and it competes as well, given weaker bunker demand and the end of summer utility burn. And also, generally, WCS is purchased by Asia and India, and they were out buying euros, Russian crude, so they weren't buying as much. And finally, WCS has a high naphtha cut, and that naphtha has been very, very weak because of the Chemicals business. So that also caused some pressure. So currently, WCS is at about $30 differential. Q4, if you look at the forward curve is at $26 off and next year is about $23 off. So we assume that it will continue to be weak and the market players also feel the same way.

I guess I'd like to maybe take a shot here at the Chemicals side of things. So obviously, kind of the softer results and coming off what was an impressive sort of '21, early '22 run. You mentioned FID for the Gulf Coast and then also the Ras Laffan opportunity. Does the weakness in Chemicals here at all imperil your timing on decision of FID? Or does it have any impact whatsoever?

Thank you, Roger, for the question. CPChem has a strong focus on long-term fundamentals and does not attempt to time market cycles in its growth strategies. Their commitment is to capture advantageous feedstocks and to maintain a global market presence, which is what they are continuing to do. Historically, projects that were developed during downturns often start coming online just as the market begins to recover, which can be economically beneficial. While it’s difficult to predict exactly when the market will improve, it typically takes about four years to complete each project. Therefore, we will have to consider market conditions as we approach that timeframe. However, our focus remains on the long-term fundamentals and the mid-cycle margins for those opportunities.

Sure, Roger. Brian again. Maybe I'll start by saying that our diverse geographic portfolio with business both here in the U.S. and in Western Europe and our diverse channels of trade. We have unbranded, branded and retail help us when we think about our Marketing business. But Q3, a number of things that we saw that helped the business. In Germany, it was a tax holiday starting in January 1 and ending at the end of August. Also overseas, the low Rhine and the one Austrian refinery down actually helped us and generally helps us. We have alternative supply at MiRO Refinery there in the South of Germany, which helps us particularly in the south of Germany. And our exchange agreement terms also give us a competitive advantage. We had the general falling of spot prices, which helped us. Shortage of Russian distillate in the market as well helped us internationally. And then I would say, conversely, in the U.S., we actually saw margins come off in Q3 from Q2. But overall, we had a very good quarter.

Maybe if I could ask one on kind of Atlantic Basin dynamics. European refining, you're exposed to European refining, spent a lot of volatility in recent months there with natural gas prices. The systems have had to adjust and have adjusted a decent amount. Looking forward, you've got a crude import ban that's about to go into effect and then potentially a product import ban early next year. Any thoughts as you look forward to how these dynamics play out both for your asset and the region overall and how this may impact Atlantic Basin balances over the next six months?

Yes. This is Mark. I'll come in at a high level, then I'll let Rich and Brian follow up. But I think generally, those are constructive for us. I think it could strengthen our position, particularly around distillates and it's going from strength to strength. But I will let Brian and Rich comment on the details.

Maybe I'll start with the macro and Rich can talk more about our assets. But clearly, the market around the world is tight, particularly on distillates. In the U.S., we're under 2015 to 2019 ranges by 22% inventories. That was a very, very weak inventories, given that we're starting to go into the winter season. Refineries around the world are making diesel over gasoline currently. So there are a lot of things that may take some of the edge off and alleviate some of the stress on the market. First around the world, we're coming back from turnarounds here in the U.S. and elsewhere. The Chinese have increased their quotas so you'll see more gasoline and diesel on the market in Asia. The French refinery strikes are coming to an end, so those refineries will be back up. And then we're seeing kind of moderate weather forecast for both the U.S. and Europe. So why we'd expect the margins to remain strong, the ultimate moderator for those margins will be demand.

Yes, this is Rich. I don't have much to add other than that from a Refining perspective, the natural gas price will increase our operating expenses. We will also experience higher feedstock costs as the market evolves and these sanctions come into effect. It will be interesting to see how everything plays out.

Great. I’m not sure if this aligns with what you plan to discuss next week, but regarding the buy-in of the remainder of DCP, could you provide any comments on the potential timing for the closure of that deal? Additionally, could you remind us how you view the incremental benefits of having a consolidated position, in terms of financial free cash flow or operational synergies resulting from the closure? How might this affect your ability to repurchase stock in both the near term and the longer term?

At a high level, Ryan, the process is underway. We are negotiating with independent directors that represent the unitholders. And I will just say that we need to let that process play out. It's better to get the right number than to get a quick number. And as far as the strategic dynamics, Tim can talk more about that, but it really is about driving this wellhead to market strategy that we really believe will create a lot of long-term value and opportunity for Phillips 66. Tim, do you want to comment on that?

Yes, I think that's accurate. Thank you, Mark. I want to emphasize that we believe in integration, similar to what we've experienced in our Refining, Marketing, Commercial business, and Midstream sectors. We observe the same in the NGL natural gas area. This enables us to establish a framework for that, particularly in key regions such as the Permian and DJ. We are quite positive about this, but it's also important to mention that we aim to finalize the buy-in process so we can fully realize the value. The crucial part for us is that we've already initiated integration, and we are actively pursuing opportunities that will enhance our competitive position and generate more value. Once the buy-in process is completed, we will be able to discuss the potential in greater detail.

So on the buyback, I think we'll probably have to wait until post DCP to have a real kind of go-forward framework. But for now, you did have a pretty big number in 3Q that I think surprised some people. And so can you talk about the short-term kind of push-pull between the buyback and then maybe conserving cash for the upcoming deal with DCP and how you think about that?

At a high level, John, we are committed to buybacks. We had to hold back in the second quarter due to a blackout period. And so that kind of held us back for a bit. But what you saw last quarter is just a signal that we are serious about buybacks. And I'll let Kevin talk about the balance between what it will require to execute the roll-up of DCP versus share repurchases. But we have got a solid plan. And like a broken record, I'll say you'll hear more about it at Investor Day.

Yes, John. Regarding the DCP roll-up, we expect to fund it through a mix of debt issuance and our available cash. I am confident in our current cash position and the cash generation we have, which will allow us to manage this effectively. While we do aim to reduce debt eventually, our strong cash position means we should still be able to return significant amounts of cash to shareholders. Therefore, I am not overly worried that the DCP transaction will hinder our ability to repurchase shares.

Okay. And then apologies to repeat a prior question, but I was just thinking through your commentary on the strength in the Central Corridor. And correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not sure if the things you guys talked about necessarily address the Other bar, flipping from negative 8 to positive 4.50 going from 2Q to 3Q. So apologies if I missed this, but if you could go through the dynamics in that Other bar specifically, that would be really helpful.

Okay, let's see. In the Other bar in the Atlantic or in the Central Coast area, we're really looking at some RIN costs in there and some inventory timing issues are the two primary drivers of that bar there, John.

Your Chems results came down but they really outperformed peers in the third quarter. Is this just as simple as you don't have Europe exposure and pretty much all your peers do? Was there anything else that we should look at? And I guess what's your outlook for Q4?

Thank you, Matt, for the question. We have engaged with CPChem regarding this matter. Part of the issue appears to be the limited capacity in Europe. Although the Middle East assets contribute significantly to the European market, they continue to perform well. Notably, while others have reduced production in North America, CPChem has maintained robust output. Although they experienced some unplanned outages, they did not make any intentional cutbacks, which likely reflects their favorable cost position. They could sustain production without having to reduce inventory or combat unfavorable economic conditions, resulting in continued profitability. Their emphasis on high-density polyethylene also differentiates them from those more reliant on linear low-density polyethylene, with those in the latter segment facing greater challenges. While the current environment is tough for everyone, CPChem seems slightly better positioned to maintain productivity during this challenging period. Regarding the fourth quarter, it is typically a slower period, and we are observing the absorption of newly introduced capacity. Margins are declining, nearing critical breakpoints. As companies signal their need for price increases and polyethylene production to meet market demands, it appears that we may be approaching a bottoming out. We expect this trend to manifest in the fourth quarter, with a gradual recovery taking a few more quarters before significant upward movement is observed.

Yes. Generally, when you have weak naphtha, Matt, you have high or large octane spreads, and naphtha's been very, very weak so gasoline blenders need the octane to blend into the gasoline to make finished grade. I would say that like most marketers, we're about 11% or 12% on our premium in our Marketing business.

I have two questions. First, with the recent comments from Biden regarding the oil industry and the potential windfall profit tax, what are your thoughts on whether there will be enough support in the Senate to pass it if the President moves forward with a proposal? My second question is about your research and development strategy for renewable diesel beyond the retail conversion currently in progress. The first phase is expected to be operational soon, with full completion likely in 2024. I'm interested in knowing if there are plans for additional initiatives beyond that or if it will be a one-time effort.

Yes. Thanks, Paul. This is Mark. Your first question, we've been, along with the rest of our peers in the industry, engaged with the Biden administration around the challenges that they see in the marketplace. And it's earnings season, a lot of integrated oils are coming out with very, very solid results. And I think that's the target of the President's latest comments. Our view is when we get off of the public rhetoric and engage with them to address the issues of inventories and supply and cost and price. It's been constructive. And they know that they have to proceed with caution because things that they try to do could disrupt the markets even more. And they are listening and they are taking into account the advice that we've been giving them along with our peers. You have to remember that there's an election next week, and I think that there's going to be a lot of rhetoric right up to that point in time. I apologize, Paul. I focused so much on your first question that I overlooked your second one regarding our renewable diesel strategy. The initial step involves the successful execution and commissioning of the Rodeo Renewed project. We have initiated a small unit at the San Francisco refinery, referred to as Unit 250, which has performed well in the market. We are actively gathering feedstocks in preparation for both the Rodeo project and our Humber facility, where we are producing renewable fuels, including sustainable aviation fuel. Rodeo will also contribute sustainable aviation fuel. We view this business broadly as renewable fuels, not limited to just renewable diesel, and we are seriously exploring options related to sustainable aviation fuel. The IRA Act has been supportive of SAF, and we have some ideas that we are considering. Ultimately, our approach will be one of strict discipline, ensuring that we maintain a competitive edge as we pursue these initiatives, focusing on feedstock availability and managing the capital costs involved in these projects. Our goal is not merely to expand but to improve across all areas of our operations.

I wanted to ask about the cash flow since you didn't provide some of the details that you usually do on the cash flow walk. Could you discuss the items that affected your cash from operations, working capital, and anything else that might have influenced cash conversion? Additionally, there have been reports about reducing headcount and optimizing the workforce. Can you talk about any plans you have regarding that and the potential cost improvements as a result?

Yes, Kevin will touch on the cash flow detail. I'll talk about those reports on headcount.

Yes, Jason. We will provide details on operating cash flow early next week when we file the 10-Q. I know there is significant interest in working capital, and we are still finalizing those details. However, based on what we have observed so far, we don’t believe working capital will have a major impact on operating cash flow. There will be a working capital impact, but it will be relatively minor compared to some of the other figures you have seen. I will leave it at that.

Yes. Regarding the headcount issue, we have been concentrating on our business transformation for over a year, and this is part of that effort. We have made significant progress in this area. More information will be provided next week at Investor Day. This action demonstrates our commitment to reducing costs, eliminating unnecessary tasks, and creating an efficient organization to navigate the ever-changing and volatile environment, particularly as we implemented a reduction in force during our best two quarters ever.

We thank all of you for your interest in Phillips 66. If you have questions on today's call, please call Shannon and me. And we look forward to seeing many of you at the Investor Day next week. Thank you.