Vulcan Materials Company
Vulcan Materials Company, a member of the S&P 500 Index with headquarters in Birmingham, Alabama, is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates – primarily crushed stone, sand and gravel – and a major producer of aggregates-based construction materials, including asphalt and ready-mixed concrete.
Price sits at 58% of its 52-week range.
Current Price
$297.32
-1.46%GoodMoat Value
$186.33
37.3% overvaluedVulcan Materials Company (VMC) — Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
AI Call Summary AI-generated
The 30-second take
Vulcan Materials had a strong start to 2022, with profits up significantly despite facing rapidly rising costs for fuel and other supplies. The company is successfully raising prices for its materials to offset these higher costs, and demand for construction projects remains healthy across the country. This matters because it shows the company can protect and grow its profits even in a challenging economic environment.
Key numbers mentioned
- Adjusted EBITDA (Q1) $294 million
- Higher energy-related costs (trailing 12 months) $131 million
- Aggregates cash gross profit per ton (Q1) $6.53
- Net leverage ratio 2.6x
- Expected Adjusted EBITDA (2022) $1.72 billion to $1.82 billion
- Average liquid asphalt price increase (year-over-year) over 30%
What management is worried about
- Accelerating inflation and continuing volatility in energy markets are creating headwinds.
- Diesel cost impacts are now expected to be 50% higher than initially estimated for the first half of the year.
- Ongoing supply chain disruptions and labor constraints are affecting customer projects and the ability to meet peak delivery demand.
- The average price of liquid asphalt was a $14 million headwind to first quarter results and is expected to continue rising.
- Parts availability for mobile equipment is creating some efficiency challenges.
What management is excited about
- The pricing environment is strong across all business segments due to growing demand and inflation, with momentum expected to continue.
- Midyear price increases are confidently expected across the majority of their work, positioning the company well for 2023.
- Demand is healthy across their footprint, with private non-residential demand returning to growth and public demand improving.
- The integration of U.S. Concrete is going well, with the company now functioning as one business.
- They are poised to benefit greatly from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act for years to come.
Analyst questions that hit hardest
- David MacGregor, Longbow Research: EBITDA guidance components amid changing pricing and costs. Management responded cautiously, acknowledging potential upside in pricing and volume but emphasizing greater diesel challenges, leading them to simply reiterate confidence in the existing guidance range.
- Michael Feniger, Bank of America: 2023 pricing and margin potential. Management gave a broad, long-term answer about business attributes and incremental margins, avoiding a direct quantitative forecast for 2023 and cautioning not to forget ongoing cost pressures.
- Chris Kalata, RBC Capital Markets: Supply chain improvement and volume flexibility. Management gave a notably negative assessment, stating they had seen no improvement in supply chain or labor tightness and that these issues would be more impactful in the upcoming peak season.
The quote that matters
Today the environment for price growth is excellent, and it's really driven by the intersection of inflation, current demand, and visibility to growing demand.
Tom Hill — Chairman and CEO
Sentiment vs. last quarter
The tone remains confident but is more acutely focused on intense cost inflation, particularly for diesel and liquid asphalt, which are now worse than expected. While excitement about pricing power and demand is undiminished, management's responses were more defensive about the durability of their guidance.
Original transcript
Operator
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Vulcan Materials Company's First Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Chelsea, and I will be your conference call coordinator today. Now, I will hand it over to your host, Mr. Mark Warren, Vice President of Investor Relations for Vulcan Materials. Mr. Warren, you may begin.
Good morning, and thank you for your interest in Vulcan Materials. With me today are Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO; and Suzanne Wood, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is accompanied by a press release and a supplemental presentation posted to our website, vulcanmaterials.com. A recording of this call will be available for replay later today on our website. Please be reminded that today's discussion may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks, along with other legal disclaimers, are described in detail in the company's earnings release and in other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Reconciliations of any non-GAAP financial measures are defined and reconciled in our earnings release, our supplemental presentation, and other SEC filings. As the operator indicated, please limit your Q&A participation to one question. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Tom.
Thank you, Mark, and thanks to everyone for joining the call this morning. As always, we appreciate your interest in Vulcan Materials, and I hope that you and your families had a safe and healthy start to the year. Our teams executed well in the first quarter. They remained focused on capitalizing on pricing opportunities and mitigating cost pressures. Their efforts have and will continue to result in the expansion of our unit margins. Our strategic disciplines are helping us to take advantage of tailwinds and dampen headwinds in a very dynamic environment. We delivered solid results in the first quarter. We generated $294 million of adjusted EBITDA, a 20% increase over the prior year, despite accelerating inflation, continuing volatility in energy markets, and ongoing disruptions in supply chains. This quarter again demonstrates the resiliency of our Aggregates business and our team’s strong execution of our strategic disciplines. Over the trailing 12 months, we have delivered 10% adjusted EBITDA growth in spite of $131 million of higher energy-related costs. On a trailing 12 months basis, Aggregates' cash gross profit per ton has improved for 15 consecutive quarters absent the impact of selling-acquired inventory. In all business segments, the pricing environment is strong due to growing demand and ongoing inflation. Momentum continued with year-over-year growth in Aggregates' mix adjusted price increases sequentially for the fifth straight quarter. Our combined commercial and operational execution contributed to higher cash gross profit in both Aggregates and total non-Aggregate segments. In the downstream businesses, volume, price, and material margins improved in both product lines. Turning now to the segments, Aggregates' gross profit improved 9% to $243 million, or $4.58 per ton. Demand is healthy across our footprint, and volume improved 14% or 7% on a same-store basis. Shipments were in line with expectations since the prior year's quarter was negatively impacted by the big February freeze. As anticipated, Aggregates' pricing showed strong momentum in the first quarter with freight adjusted pricing increasing 6% over the prior year's first quarter. Mix adjusted pricing improved 7%. We expect to see continuous strength in pricing throughout the year, and are confident about midyear price increases that will be particularly impactful for 2023. As expected, our costs were elevated in the quarter on a year-over-year basis since the inflationary impacts did not begin in earnest until the second quarter last year. Over the trailing 12 months of continuously rising diesel and other inflationary impacts, our freight adjusted unit cash cost of sales has increased by 5%. In a challenging macro environment, this is a job well done, and I commend our operators for their hard work and for keeping each other safe and for delivering these results. In the first quarter, cash gross profit was $6.53 per ton. Excluding the impact of selling acquired inventory and higher diesel cost, cash gross profit was $6.90 per ton, a 5% improvement over the prior year. Asphalt, cash gross profit of $6 million was in line with the prior year. Pricing actions initiated last year to offset rising liquid asphalt input cost positively impacted the first quarter results. Average selling prices increased 13% versus last year and helped to improve unit material margins. The average price of liquid asphalt was over 30% higher than the prior year, a $14 million headwind to our first quarter results. While we expect liquid asphalt prices to continue to rise, we are encouraged by the significant sequential improvement that we have seen in pricing over the last couple of quarters. And we remain focused on improving our gross profit margin in asphalt. Concrete cash gross profit grew from $12 million to $49 million in the first quarter, driven primarily by the addition of U.S. Concrete. Volume, price, and material margins all improved as higher selling prices offset higher material costs, including internally supplied Aggregates. Now, let's shift to the demand environment, which remains positive. Private demand is expected to grow in 2022 across all major categories, both single and multi-family housing, and both heavy and more traditional non-residential. Public demand is improving, and as funding is put in place from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, future growth is expected in both highways and other infrastructure. After double-digit growth in 2021, residential end usage is expected to grow but at a more modest rate in 2022. Demand remains strong and starts are still positive. However, with a multitude of factors such as supply chain issues, rising interest rates, and labor constraints. With the continued demand for additional housing, multi-family demand is accelerating. Private non-residential demand has returned to growth in 2022. While demand will continue to be influenced by Aggregates' intensive warehouse and distribution projects, other private segments like office, manufacturing, and industrial are now contributing to the sustainable growth in this end market. On a trailing 12-month basis, square footage for total non-residential starts has grown through the last seven months and is now back to pre-COVID levels. Other external leading indicators like ABI and the Dodge Momentum Index also point towards growth in 2022. On the public side, demand growth is expected in both highways and other infrastructure. The timing of the impact of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act would depend upon the pace at which states allocate additional funds and the time horizon needed to move from design to letting to construction. As we previously communicated, we anticipate the majority of the impact to be realized in 2023 and beyond. We are well-positioned in attractive markets and are poised to benefit greatly from legislation for years to come. With the solid demand backdrop and positive pricing environment, we remain confident in delivering significant earnings improvement in 2022. We are focused on leveraging our strategic disciplines to control what we can control and to diminish the impacts of things outside of our control. I will now turn the call over to Suzanne for further comments.
Thanks, Tom, and good morning to everyone. The macro challenges of the last 24 months have been well-documented and discussed. We continue to confront these challenges from a position of strength, led by our resilient Aggregates business. Our commercial and operational executions are sound and supported by our strategic disciplines. Our balance sheet is strong. These factors combine to form our positive 2022 outlook. As Tom already highlighted, our strategic disciplines help us to take advantage of tailwinds and dampen the impact of headwinds. We've done that over the last eight quarters, delivering a 4% compound annual growth rate in our trailing 12-month cash unit margins in the face of a number of challenges. The current pricing environment provides tremendous support for both our near-term and longer-term results, and we will continue to leverage best practices and the collective knowledge of our talented teams to manage our overall costs. This is evident in our SAG cost, which, as a percentage of total revenues declined 60 basis points versus the prior year's quarter. We continue to make progress on the integration of U.S. Concrete to further leverage our cost. Now, with respect to the balance sheet, we took steps in the quarter to improve its structure. We extended the maturity of our $1.1 billion term loan to August 2026. The loan can be repaid in full or in part at any time with no penalty. Simultaneously, we also extended the maturity of our revolving credit facility to September 2026. Our net leverage is 2.6 times. That's just above the top-end of our target range of two to 2.5 times. Given our ability to generate strong cash flows, there is capacity to invest in other opportunities, whether organic or inorganic. Having said that, we do expect to move back within the target range by year-end. As always, we will remain disciplined as we allocate capital, with a view to improving shareholder returns and maintaining financial flexibility and our investment-grade ratings. We also remain focused on improving our return on investment. On a trailing 12-month basis, our ROIC at quarter-end was 14%. And our adjusted EBITDA over the same time horizon has improved by 10%. And we expect continued growth in 2022. In February, we communicated expectations for 2022 of delivering adjusted EBITDA between $1.72 billion and $1.82 billion. We reiterate this guidance. We expect the favorable pricing dynamics and our strong execution to lead to attractive growth in Aggregates unit profitability, as well as improvement in our downstream businesses. Our expectation of investing between $600 million and $650 million in capital expenditures remains unchanged. I'll now turn the call back over to Tom for closing remarks.
Thank you, Suzanne. In closing, I would like to remind you of three things our teams remain clearly focused on in order to deliver value for all of our stakeholders; one, executing at the local level; two, driving unit margin expansion by focusing on our strategic disciplines; and three, maximizing synergies from recent acquisitions. Our people are what makes Vulcan better every day. And I appreciate the hard work of our entire Vulcan team. I am excited about what we will accomplish in 2022 and for years to come. And now, Suzanne, I will be happy to take your questions.
Operator
Thank you. Our first question will come from Trey Grooms with Stephens. Your line is now open.
Hey, good morning, Tom and Suzanne. How are you?
Good morning, Trey. Good.
Hey, good morning.
Great. Tom, to start, I know you briefly mentioned the pricing environment, which is clearly strong, and you expect price momentum to increase in 2022. Reflecting on what you said in February, you had projected a 6% to 8% price increase this year compared to last year, but it seems we are closer to 3%. You achieved a 6% increase in the quarter, indicating some nice acceleration. Could you discuss the price momentum you are seeing today and what you expect for the rest of the year? Additionally, how are you approaching midyear price increases compared to your outlook from a few months ago?
Sure. I thought the performance in the first quarter was a really good start for the year. We reported a six percent increase, and mix adjusted, we were at seven percent. If you remember, in February, we predicted it to start off higher than the low end of the range but higher than the fourth quarter of last year. We expect to grow sequentially as we progress through the year. The combination of visibility to demand and anticipated demand, along with inflation, serves as a good catalyst for price growth. All of our January and April increases are now implemented. At this point, I feel very confident about midyear price increases across the majority of our work. It’s important to note that while midyear price increases will positively impact 2022, because of the delays in our projects, it’s really more significant for 2023. This positions us well for next year. Overall, we are off to a strong start, and I believe we will continue to accelerate pricing throughout the year, while also preparing ourselves for 2023. So, as you mentioned, it is a favorable pricing environment.
And Trey, I just want to remind everyone that our pricing and guidance may differ from how others in the industry present it. Specifically, the pricing we provide is freight adjusted, meaning it is based on the cost from the quarry and does not include transportation to the long haul market. In times of inflation and volatility, this can significantly affect the quoted top line price. However, what's crucial to discuss, and what we will address regarding unit margins later, is how much of that price can actually contribute to the bottom line.
Perfect. Thank you for that. And I am going to stick with the one question, but I do go to take my hats off to on the profit per ton as well that could work on that side as well. Thank you.
Thanks, Trey.
Thanks, Trey.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question will come from Stanley Elliott with Stifel.
Good morning everyone. Thank you for the question.
Good morning.
Hey Tom, could you elaborate on the execution, managing costs, and the fact that freight-adjusted costs are up 11%? You're doing a great job with the unit margins, but I’d appreciate a deeper insight into what's going on behind the scenes.
Sure. As we talked about, our Aggregates business, we believe will beat inflation. While we continue to do a good job on price, I think our operators have really improved efficiencies to help offset inflation and offset this huge $59 million 12 months spike we've experienced in diesel and Aggregates. And I think they are doing it all the time, making sure they service our customers, and keep each other safe. So, if you kind of look back over the last 12 months, we have held cost to 5% in the face of inflation and massive spikes in fuel and energy. I would tell you, I think that has been an excellent job from our operators, and I appreciate the job they're doing, and as always they do it keeping our folks healthy and safe. And to me, what this demonstrates throughout the whole Aggregates business is that we are executing on our four strategic disciplines, and they're making a difference of obviously controlling, we are controlled but also offsetting other outside pressures that maybe we had not expected when we started this journey.
Thanks, everybody. Best of luck.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question will come from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.
Yes, hi, good morning everyone.
Good morning, Jerry.
Hey, good morning, Jerry.
I'm wondering if you could just talk about the magnitude of inflation that you folks are seeing on labor and other inputs, and what do you expect the cadence of that to look like? In other words, when do we hit an easier comp from that standpoint? And I'm assuming the price realization is going to dovetail nicely with that cadence, but maybe I can get you to expand on price cost, if you don't mind.
Sure, I'd be happy to. Like everyone else, inflation is everywhere. Our labor costs are likely increasing slightly, and we are facing challenges with parts availability; steel and rubber prices are also rising. The main concern lies in fuel and energy costs. For diesel, we initially estimated a $50 million negative impact in the first half of the year, but it now seems that this figure will be 50% higher. We anticipated that the situation would improve in the third and fourth quarters, but we still expect prices to remain high. It’s challenging, but as you noted, we will likely counteract this with pricing strategies, and we are consistently working to enhance our unit margins, which is our responsibility. Based on our guidance, both Suzanne and I are confident we will meet our targets, and I believe the first quarter demonstrated our capability in that regard.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question will come from Kathryn Thompson with The Thompson Research Group.
Hi, thank you for taking my questions today.
Hi, good morning.
You have a positive outlook on volume and are noticing some areas, including office, that are beginning to show improvement. There is real momentum at the state level due to public spending. However, there are still some ongoing supply chain challenges and a tight situation across the U.S. We are hearing concerns about the availability of certain types of rock as we reach peak construction times. From your perspective, how is the supply chain situation evolving for you as you manage your business now? Additionally, how do you anticipate it will develop for the remainder of 2022 and into 2023? Thank you.
Yes, for us, the impact is slightly felt in efficiencies with parts for mobile equipment, but we hope that improves. We first noticed this in the first quarter. For our customers, the situation is a bit different. While the first quarter was strong, we should keep in mind that we’re comparing to an easier scenario due to the big freeze last February. So, Q1 was an easy comparison. The fundamentals of demand appear to be in a good position, and pricing has not been this favorable for a long time, with all foreign uses expected to have shipments up in 2022. However, as you mentioned, we are facing labor and supply chain challenges. Labor will impact our customers in terms of catching up more than completing tasks, and it's also affecting us in transportation. On peak days, especially with good weather, there isn't enough flexibility to meet peak demand, which spreads out the delivery. Supply chain issues are also slowing some projects. The positive news is that work is not being canceled; we’re not losing any jobs. Demand is strong, and while it’s being pushed to the right, it’s not entirely negative. If some of these pressures ease, there could be potential for improvements sooner, but we haven’t seen that easing yet as we head into the season.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question will come from Keith Hughes with Chouest Securities.
Thank you. I want to focus on asphalt, considering the inflation affecting that sector and the flat year-over-year performance. My question is, for the next quarter or two, will you experience any recent inflation lagging, which might create some pressure, or do you believe you are currently managing costs effectively?
I believe we will experience some pressure in Q2 due to tougher comparisons. Last year in Q2, we began to see inflation, but not a significant increase in diesel and liquid prices. All product lines will face these difficult comparisons, largely influenced by energy prices. From an asphalt standpoint, I was very pleased with the 13% price increase we observed. As we mentioned in our asphalt guidance, we expect gross profit to grow, supported by increased volumes in the second half of the year. In this quarter, liquid prices rose by $130, or $14 million, and our ability to offset that increase with higher prices is a promising sign for the rest of the year. I believe we managed the situation well, and as we move through the year, we will start to enhance our unit margins in asphalt.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question will come from Garik Shmois with Loop Capital.
Oh, hi, thanks, and congrats on the quarter. I was just wondering if you can go to a little bit more detail just on the volume growth expectations for the rest of the year, clearly Q1 up against a fairly easy comparison, but anything which consider as the demand environment continues to improve for you?
Yes. We will maintain our guidance with expected volume growth of five to seven percent, and two to four percent for same-store sales. It's a strong start, and given the easy comparison from a small quarter, I will stick to this outlook. Until we see some easing, particularly with the labor, supply chain, and potential demand issues we've discussed, I don't think it will significantly affect volumes. However, I don't see those challenges alleviating at this moment. Therefore, I will adhere to our initial growth expectations until we have more clarity.
And I think like we said last quarter, I mean if there is you know, an easing, then we stand ready to benefit from that.
Yes, understood. Thank you.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question will come from David MacGregor with Longbow Research.
Yes, good morning everyone. Congratulations on the great quarter.
Good morning.
And pretty impressive.
Thank you.
I guess I wanted to ask about the EBITDA guidance range, the 172-182, and that's not changing, but obviously a lot within that is changing, and just responding to Garik's question, you just talked about volume growth, where you were in terms of beginning of your assumptions, and clearly, pricing is going to be a lot better. Can you just talk about how you're thinking about that cash cost inflation in that mid single-digit number you gave us back in February?
Yes. As I reflect on the year after just one quarter, I believe there may be potential upside, perhaps towards the higher end of our pricing guidance, and possibly upside in volume, although we haven't observed it yet. There will be challenges, particularly with diesel, where we've encountered greater issues than expected. We anticipated challenges with liquid asphalt as well, which has risen more than we initially thought and will likely continue to rise. Overall, I have strong confidence in our guidance, but I would need to see a bit more before considering any adjustments.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Sure.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Philip Ng with Jefferies.
Hey, guys. Congrats on a really strong quarter.
Thank you.
John and Suzanne, is there a good way to think about the midyear increase from a contribution standpoint, and if demand remains pretty good, do you see this being more of the knock norm, and appreciating that, you know, the full impact is really more of a 2023 event. Can you get closer to like double-digit pricing from an increase standpoint in the back-half of this year? Sorry, a lot of impact there.
No, that's okay. I think that if you step back and just look at the Aggregates business, one of the really attractive attributes of Aggregates is its pricing and elasticity. And from Vulcan's perspective, it's ability to compound unit margins over time. That is specifically why we are in the Aggregates business, that's why we are leading that business, that's why 90% of our gross profit is in Aggregates. Today the environment for price growth is excellent, and it's really driven by the intersection of inflation, current demand, and visibility to growing demand. You've seen us sequentially grow price over the last five quarters, and I'm confident we will continue that trend. So, we started off at six or seven, depending on how you call the price in the quarter, and I think each quarter will continue to grow that as we progress forward. At this point, I would hope we will be at the higher end of that guidance, at this point. Now, if you really want to be good at this business, you got to take that price to the bottom line, which is why we work so hard on those strategic disciplines, and why it's not just about price, it's also about cost control and operating efficiencies. And so, the combination of those two at this point, you know, even in the face of what we face with inflation, I think our troops are doing an excellent job both in servicing our customers, earning price, but also operating in the most efficient manner possible under some pretty tough circumstances.
Yes, Phil, and I think you see that, you know, when you look at the guidance we called out at the beginning of the year if you look at that cash gross profit per ton, and the guidance range is that we've given call for that to go up, you know, high single-digits year-over-year. And I would say at any time, that's a good performance to be able to drive that to that level, but taking into consideration, all of the energy headwinds we've talked about and the inflation, despite the opportunity for some price increases, that's a performance I would really be proud of.
For sure, I mean given all the inflation you saw improving in 1Q is pretty promising. Appreciate the color.
Yes, sure.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question will come from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research.
Good morning, Mark, Suzanne, and Tom.
Good morning.
Good morning.
Tom, if you could share your thoughts on how the U.S. Concrete integration is going relative to plan? And one of the puts and takes you've seen over the first several months of having that family? And is the New York kind of like northeast market, we hear about a lot of civil, lot of work coming through various agencies, are you seeing some of that through this year and going out into the next quarter?
Yes, we are. New York I think, two things happening to New York, the public demand is growing and there are some very big projects that are in the works. And now we are starting to see non-res up there starting to pop. So, good news is that market. If you step back and look at U.S. Concrete, at this point, we're functioning as one business. That's combined field teams, operating as one team, you heard me say last quarter the timing is turning out to be excellent for two reasons, as we talked about non-residential demand, which is so important to Concrete and is in growth mode, and there is a lot of work coming in non across our footprint. And in pricing, in all product lines, as we talked about is really jumping in 2022. So, it sets us up really well for that acquisition to create even more value for our shareholders.
Thank you.
Sure.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question will come from Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.
Hi, good morning, guys.
Good morning.
Just one clarification on the price income comments and we've been talking a lot about the mid-years, but is your reiterated guidance includes the upside from mid-years at the high-end, or I think last quarter you characterized it as not including mid-years and if so, just wanted to understand if that changed, given the elevated diesel in liquid asphalt headwind that you are now breaking in. And then secondly, on the downstream side, you've given us some guidance for gross profit last quarter and a change to how we should be thinking about those business lines?
Yes, the pricing is expected to remain in the six to eight range, and we are probably positioned at the higher end. It's important to note that mid-year price increases will take effect in May, June, and July. Due to the lag in our business, some benefits will be realized in 2022, but the majority of the impact will be felt in 2023. While there will be some immediate advantages, the significant benefits are anticipated for 2023. From a downstream perspective, there is no change in our guidance. We maintain our expectation of 300 to 325 cash gross profit in the downstream sector, despite facing inflationary pressures in both concrete and asphalt. We also see pricing improvements, and I feel confident in our guidance while aiming to increase our unit margins and volume, particularly in the second half of the year.
Okay, great.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Feniger with Bank of America.
Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question. Just following up I mean with the pricing now at the high-end, or what you started, so where you exited. I mean, what kind of incremental should we be thinking about for next year if you're looking at a 10% to 12% pricing in 2023, should this basically just cash gross profit per ton, which is growing high single-digit, how much is that accelerating should we thinking about in 2023? And really think about those incrementals around that, that business?
Yes. Well, too early to call pricing and 2023. Again, it's nice setup with medium price increases. And I would always point you in aggregates to 6% incremental same store and I would 60%, same store and inflation puts pressure on that particularly spikes in diesel. But if you look at over the long-term, that's where I would guide you that 60%.
Okay. And can gross margin in asphalt rate mix, can that get back to 2020 levels next year? I know you're assuming that there's improved in the second half of this year. So with next year, if we get some moderation or just stabilization on these price increases, can we see those margins come back? Or do you think there's something structural that keeps those margins in the downstream businesses from getting back to those levels?
I'll remind you that 2020 was a unique year for asphalt due to the shortfall in liquid prices. It was likely an exception, while 2021 presented a different scenario with a spike in liquid prices. We expect to return to more normalized conditions. There hasn't been any structural change in asphalt; the significant fluctuations in liquid prices were unusual, but we are on track to achieve more normalized margins in asphalt, as indicated by our performance in the first quarter.
Thank you.
Yes, I want to just add here, I mean, it's look we had a really good first quarter and we're really excited about that our people worked very hard to deliver that and we're very appreciative to them for their efforts. And I think we certainly saw good performance in price. We said we're confident in mid-year price increases and so while those are great to talk about, I just want to caution people, let's not forget that there's a bit of another side to that equation. We've seen cost pressures, Tom talked about those in terms of energy and other inflation. So, when we reiterated our EBITDA guidance, we're really trying to take into effect that both of those items.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our last question will come from Adam Thalhimer with Thompson Davis.
Hey, good morning guys.
Good morning.
Just a quick question on residential. Tom, you mentioned that residential growth is decelerating this year. What insights are you getting from your major home building clients? Could you also provide a geographic overview for us? Thanks.
The geographic situation is quite straightforward. It's widespread and evident in residential areas. The housing market remains tight overall, with perhaps Illinois being an exception, though it still shows some tightness. Houses are hard to find. Residential demand is continuing at a high level, despite ongoing supply chain issues. Demand remains strong, and we expect to see growth in 2022. However, I don't anticipate it to reach the exceptionally high levels we witnessed in 2021 for single-family homes. On the other hand, multi-family permits and starts have increased by double digits, indicating significant momentum. Overall, both single-family and multi-family sectors are performing well and showing no signs of slowing down, although the growth rate may have decreased slightly. It would have been challenging to maintain the pace we experienced in 2021.
We are still in high levels.
So growth is maybe not is not at the level of growth that we saw in '21, but really good news.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question will come from Brent Thielman with D.A. Davidson.
Hi, thank you, and good morning. Hey, Tom, there has been some discussion about delays in certain infrastructure projects just because the cost sort of advanced beyond the original estimates, have to go back and kind of re-bid it. Is that something you have seen become more pervasive across your markets? And any sense if that's had any effect at all in terms of slowing some of the good momentum, and I think that piece of your business should otherwise be doing?
I don't know if I've experienced delays due to inflation. I believe that for non-highway infrastructure, we should see growth in 2022. Starts in the last three months increased by 16%. New subdivision work supports this segment. I think we are well-positioned for some significant projects that are on the horizon in that sector. Everything from lot repairs to airports to wind farm work and rail is expected to continue growing in 2022 and 2023.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our last question will come from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.
Hi, it's actually Chris Kalata for Mike. Thanks for taking my question. I understand that you guys still feel comfortable with your prior volume outlook. But, I just want to get a sense of the flexibility around that again in terms of supply chain pressures and limiting factors that is on your outlook. Have supply chains improved at all this quarter? And, what's your outlook there for the remainder of the year?
No, I would say the supply chain is still tight. I haven't seen any improvement. Labor is also tight. It doesn't impact us as much in Q1 because the volumes aren't as high as they are in Q2 and Q3 during the construction season. So, we are not operating at a high enough level to feel the effects, which is what we will see in Q2 and Q3. The supply chain issues affect everything from windows to doors, doorknobs, switchgear, and plumbing pipe; it's widespread. The labor shortage not only affects construction companies but also impacts transportation, as railroads are operating below capacity and struggling to meet demand due to crew shortages. They were also short on trucks during peak shipping times. I don't think this diminishes demand; it just pushes it out and likely extends the cycle, so it’s not all bad news, even though we would like to ship as much as possible every day. If we don't manage it this quarter, we can address it next quarter or the following year, so it's not entirely negative. Hopefully, conditions will improve as we move through the year, and if they do, we will take advantage of that and adjust our strategy accordingly. For now, we just don't see any signs of improvement.
Understood. Appreciate the color.
Sure.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's question-and-answer portion. It is now my pleasure to turn the call back over to Mr. Tom Hill for any closing remarks.
Thank you, Operator. Listen, I thank all of you for your interest in Vulcan Materials and your time today. We hope that you and your families stay safe, and we look forward to talking to you throughout the quarter. Bye-bye.
Thanks, everyone.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's program, and we thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.