Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) — Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning, and thank you for your interest in Vulcan Materials. With me today are Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO; and Mary Andrews Carlisle, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is accompanied by a press release and a supplemental presentation posted at our website. Please be reminded that today's discussion may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks, along with other legal disclaimers, are described in detail in the company's earnings release and in other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Reconciliations of any non-GAAP financial measures are defined and reconciled in our earnings release, our supplemental presentation, and other SEC filings. As the operator said, in the interest of time, please limit your Q&A participation to one question. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

Thank you, Mark, and thank all of you for your interest in Vulcan Materials today. Our results through the first half of 2023 highlight both the attractive fundamentals of our aggregates-led business and Vulcan's commitment to compounding profitability through our solid execution of our Vulcan web selling and strong operating strategic disciplines. I'm proud of our teams for delivering yet another quarter of improvement in our trailing 12-month aggregates cash gross profit per ton. That marks 20 of the last 22 quarters. This exceptional execution, coupled with a better-than-expected demand environment, gives us confidence in our ability to deliver between $1.9 billion and $2 billion in adjusted EBITDA this year. In the quarter, we generated $595 million of adjusted EBITDA, which is a 32% improvement over the prior year. Gross margin expanded by 480 basis points, and importantly, each product line delivered year-over-year improvement. In the Aggregates segment, gross margin improved by 290 basis points. Cash gross profit per ton improved by 22% with healthy year-over-year price improvement and moderating year-over-year cost increases. Shipments declined a modest 1% in the quarter, but were varied across markets. On one hand, we saw solid growth in our key southeastern markets, where we have the most attractive Aggregates footprint. We were also pleased with the rebound of sales in California after a very wet first quarter. On the other hand, weather continued to be a challenge in Texas. And we should remember that softer residential activity weighs on most markets. All geographies benefited from the continued strong underlying price environment. Our mix-adjusted sales price improved 15% in the quarter. Attractive price growth should continue driving improvement in our unit profitability as we progress through the back half of this year and into next year. In Asphalt, cash gross profit nearly tripled from the prior year to $66 million, and cash unit profitability improved over $10 a ton. Volume growth of 16%, price improvement of 9%, and lower liquid asphalt costs all contributed to the stable results. Gross margin improved almost 1,200 basis points. Concrete cash unit profitability improved by 24% in the quarter, despite lower volumes being impacted by the slowdown in residential construction activity. The prior year Concrete segment benefited from contributions from the now divested New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania Concrete operations. Starting with residential, let me provide a few thoughts about each end market. To date, the impact of the slowdown in residential activity has not been as significant as most of us initially feared. Recent permits and starts show that some areas have reached the bottom, and sentiment among homebuilders is much improved. These trends, along with the solid underlying fundamentals for residential demand growth—such as low inventories, favorable demographic trends, and employment growth in our market—suggest that single-family demand will bottom in the second half of this year and then start recovering thereafter. In the private nonresidential construction segment, starts remain at healthy levels, with particular strength in large manufacturing and industrial projects. Our strong Southeastern footprint and logistics innovation efforts are making us a supplier of choice on many of these projects. For example, we have booked and are currently shipping to projects such as battery plants, electric vehicle manufacturing facilities, LNG facilities, and large warehouse parks. On the public side, demand is unfolding largely as we expected. Funding from the infrastructure investment and Jobs Act is beginning to flow through, and the pipeline is building, with trailing 12-month highway starts up over 20%. The 2024 state budgets are at very healthy levels. Internally, our bookings and backlog reflect this increased activity. The level of this year's shipments will depend upon how quickly this increased activity converts to shipments. We expect accelerating growth into next year and continued growth for the next several years. Trailing 12-month other infrastructure starts are also up over 20%. In addition to significant IIJA funding for water, energy, ports, and shipments, strong state and local revenue supports growth in non-highway investments. Based on the improved private demand backdrop from our first half shipments, we now expect Aggregates volumes to decline between 1% to 4% in 2023 compared to our initial expectations of a decline between 2% and 6%. Of course, regardless of the demand environment, our focus is to consistently improve unit profitability and grow earnings to create value for our shareholders. We are well positioned to execute on this goal this year and deliver approximately 20% year-over-year improvement in both our cash gross profit per ton and adjusted EBITDA. Now I'll turn the call over to Mary Andrews for additional commentary on our second quarter and an update for the 2023 outlook.

Thanks, Tom, and good morning. Our strong operational performance through the first six months of this year exhibits the benefits of our strategic focus on enhancing our core. We have improved our adjusted EBITDA margin by 350 basis points year-to-date through a combination of gross margin expansion and disciplined SAG cost management. This operational execution and resulting cash generation have allowed us to deploy capital toward each of our long-standing priorities: to improve our return on invested capital and to maintain the strength of our investment-grade balance sheet. Over the last 12 months, we have invested $677 million in maintenance and growth capital, including strategic greenfields. Additionally, we have deployed $340 million for acquisitions, and we've returned $271 million to shareholders via a combination of dividends and share repurchases. We have improved our return on invested capital by 110 basis points on a trailing 12-month basis, and we have reduced our leverage on a net debt to adjusted EBITDA basis to 2x at June 30, 2023, from 2.5x at June 30, 2022. We are well positioned to execute on our strategic objectives of further enhancing our core and expanding our reach. Talent and technology are critical to achieve our business objectives, and we continue to invest in both while remaining focused on further leveraging our SAG costs. Trailing 12-month SAG expenses as a percentage of revenue have improved by 50 basis points. Now let me shift to updates on our full-year guidance. As Tom mentioned, we now expect to generate between $1.9 billion and $2 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2023, a 17% to 23% improvement over the prior year. Our revised outlook results in the update to our aggregates volume expectations that Tom described, in addition to the momentum in our Asphalt business. With our non-aggregates businesses now in margin recovery mode, we expect to generate approximately $295 million of cash gross profit from our downstream businesses, with 50% to 55% of the total expected from Asphalt and 45% to 50% of the total expected from Concrete. We continue to expect to spend between $600 million and $650 million on maintenance and growth capital. Additionally, we expect to spend approximately $200 million on opportunistic purchases of strategic reserves in California, North Carolina, and Texas, three important markets for Vulcan Materials. Because reserves are critical to our long-term success, our land portfolio is extensive and a strategic focus for us. We take a disciplined approach to securing high-quality reserves, the timing of which often depends on a combination of availability, alternative cash uses, and tax efficiency. We manage the entire life cycle of our land to create maximum value for the business, for our shareholders, and for our communities, putting land to work both before and after mining. Our excess properties, once completely mined and often reclaimed to their highest and best use, can generate significant value, such as the 2021 sale of previously mined property in Southern California that was reclaimed for commercial and retail development and sold for over $180 million. Of course, the timing of buying and selling land can be uneven, but our focus is on the strategic management of our land portfolio. All other aspects of the full-year guidance, as reaffirmed or updated in May, remain unchanged. I'll now turn the call back over to Tom for some closing remarks.

Thank you, Mary Andrews. In closing, I want to thank and congratulate our teams on an outstanding performance in the first half of this year, and I want to challenge them to remain focused on our Vulcan web selling and Vulcan web operating disciplines so that we can continue to compound improvements and drive value for our shareholders. Most importantly, we will remain committed to each other and keeping each other safe. And now Mary Andrews and I will be glad to take the questions.

Nice work in the quarter.

Thanks, Trey.

So I guess I wanted to touch on the guide specifically on the increase in your volume outlook for the year. I think, Tom, and I know you have some things maybe from a high level, but could you maybe go into a little bit more detail on the primary drivers there, especially as you kind of look on the private side, on res and private non-res, and is that adjustment that you've made here for the full year based more on what you've seen in the results year-to-date or an improvement in the outlook for the balance of the year?

This last part of that is, I'd say both. We had a strong start, and I think things are looking better than what we had thought at the beginning of the year. Volume in the quarter was only down 1%. It was a great recovery in California, where we had a big washout in the first quarter. Texas was wet in the first quarter, it was wet in the second quarter, causing shipments to be down year-over-year. Interestingly, in the second quarter, the Southeast was also wet. But after those wet days, we're seeing a faster recovery in these markets. I mean, the volumes go up as soon as it dries out, volumes pop and so that's good news for all of us. The private demand has been stronger than we anticipated. Both single-family and multifamily shipments have held up better than I think our original projections. Nonres has also been better, as we said, driven by the heavy side. So that's why we raised our guidance to negative 1% to negative 4%. Highways, I think, will finish the year about where we thought, low single digits. We have really strong backlogs and bookings are growing. So we will build in 2024. But at the end of it, the private side has been stronger and will be stronger than we originally anticipated.

I would like to follow up on Trey's question regarding the volume outlook. Can you provide more details about the light non-residential sector, considering that the heavy segment has been performing well? Are you noticing any changes in trends there? Additionally, regarding highways, it seems to be in line with expectations for this year. Do you have any insights on what type of growth we might expect in 2024?

I'll take non-res first. As I said, it's been a lot better than we thought. It's really driven by as you would expect, warehouse and distribution centers. Now, we've got the heavy industrial projects coming on, which have been very helpful. I would say there is a little bit of risk in some geographies and some sectors next year as we've seen maybe some slowdowns in starts in Texas and warehouses. That said, if you look at that segment, warehouse segment in some of our stronger markets like Georgia, Florida, California, and Arizona, we're still seeing growth in starts and warehouses in those markets. It's a little bit of a mixed bag of warehouses. I'd say the really good news in non-res is that we continue to see significant growth in the heavy industrial projects in our footprint. We have, I think, 11 of these big projects that we've already booked, most of them were already shipping on, and they'll carry out through 2024. On top of that, we're currently bidding on a number of projects that, as you know, won't ship until '24 or '25. So in this sector, geography really does matter. So better growth in non-res than I think we originally expected. I'm sorry, your second question was on highway demand. It's really a matter of timing. We're seeing a lot of growth in bidding. The funding from the federal side, the state side, and the local side is very good. Highway lettings continue to build, our bookings in our backlogs are also growing, and highways continue to build. What we're bidding today, and what we're looking at, will ship in '24. So again, low single-digit growth in the sector in '23, but it is setting up very well for '24 and beyond.

Could you guys talk about the pricing environment? You mentioned pretty broad-based momentum in the first half of the year. You did leave the pricing guidance unchanged. Is that regional mix? Is it maybe some timing? And to what level are you guys thinking about second price increases and maybe even how that carries off into 2024?

Yes. The pricing for 2023 is developing as we anticipated. Prices increased by 15% in the quarter, and we expect the same for the full year. Looking back, the pricing sequence for 2023 was notably different from 2022. This year, we initiated higher prices much earlier than last year. We've secured more price increases in 2023, and we did it sooner. For reference, in 2022, the total price increase from January 1 to December 31 was over 53. By the end of June in 2023, we had already risen by $2.28, indicating a quicker and more substantial compounding effect. Although price increases in the second half will be mixed, they are expected to contribute positively. They are well-positioned for 2024 and will help maintain momentum. Demand looks stronger, especially on the private side, while public sector growth continues. Everyone in the sector sees a more optimistic growth trajectory, and our customers remain confident. I feel positive about our momentum as we prepare for our January 1 price increases, which will be higher and implemented earlier than in the past. It's crucial for us to translate these price increases into improved margins, which we aim to achieve. In the first and second quarters, we've seen margin expansion in the low 20s, and we expect that trend to persist over the next few quarters. While the second half may present tougher comparisons for pricing, costs could be easier to manage, so we aim for continued low 20s margin expansion.

So I had a question on the downstream businesses. So it's nice to see certainly good properties, and you're referencing that you're in margin recovery mode. You took up the guide for this year. When I take a step back and look at kind of your legacy business combined with the previous U.S. Concrete legacy business, it seems like there will be still quite a bit more work or runway left on what 'normal' is to be in downstream. So just wanted to get your thoughts on that in terms of timing. Should we be thinking about your combined businesses could be like $400 million to $295 million? I'm not saying this year or next, but is that the right normal to be thinking about, or how should we frame that?

Yes. I think we were very encouraged that this quarter, we had unit margin growth in all three product lines. We battled out a bit in Asphalt for a year or two. Then we had to catch up. We said we'd catch up this year in Concrete, and we've got that in the second quarter. I'll take the product lines kind of one at a time: a really strong quarter for Asphalt. Gross margins were up to $66 million. They were $26 million last year. Volumes were up 16% in spite of wet weather in Texas, California, and Arizona. Asphalt volumes were really strong after a tough first quarter because of rain. Prices were up 9%, and our liquid costs were down. So it was a great quarter in Asphalt. We told you guys we would continue to grow this margin, and we are. So we're really encouraged by that, and that will only get better as you see the funding from IIJA and local and state hands going to work in the public sector. In ready-mix, we had a really tough first quarter, slow start to the year. We bounced back rapidly in the second quarter, and it was really driven by unit margin expansion. On a same-store basis, our volumes were down, actually, 11%. A combination of rain in Texas and the impact of single-family demand. Prices were up 10%, and unit margins were up 24%. So we said we'd get back to growth mode in ready mix. I think we are, and we'll continue that recovery. I'm really proud of the ready-mixed teams' recovery and the Asphalt team's continued performance in those product lines.

Yes. And Mike, just on a longer-term horizon, I think in the ready-mix business, we still think that low double-digit gross margins is where we need to be. And so if you look, we saw a great recovery in the second quarter. If you look at where we are in the trailing 12, as you said, we still have runway ahead of us, and that's the margin expansion that we're looking forward to going forward. Similarly, in the Asphalt business, we've sort of long said high single digits, maybe low double digits, long-term gross margins in Asphalt. We've hit 10% on a trailing 12-month basis. I think with where we are right now with the pricing environment and the demand environment ahead of us, we can still see some expansion there as well, but would still think of high single digits, low double digits over the long term.

Just following up on margins. I think you previously pointed to cash costs up high single digits year-over-year this year. I'm just wondering, is that still a fair expectation? And I think costs were up a little bit more than that in Q2. You talked about comps getting easier in the second half. Just any further detail in terms of the cadence from Q3 to Q4? And if there's any sort of good or bad news from a cost perspective that we should especially keep in mind for the second half?

Yes. We're getting better costs, but they're still high. They were up 9% in the quarter. You are really feeling the impact of the inflationary pressures on parts and services. As we said, comps get easier throughout the year; our guidance is high single digits, which would put us kind of mid for the balance of the year. Parts and service costs continue to pose challenges as well. We have issues with parts delivery, which hurts our efficiencies. That said, I think we do have a good development in diesel, which probably had an impact of around $25 million. Our operating efficiencies continue to improve and will help us offset some of these challenges. So we guide you for the full year to high single digits, which would put us kind of mid in the back half of the year, but we're comparing over a lot easier numbers.

Yes. And Anthony, I think most importantly, it has been a challenging couple of years with inflationary pressure, certainly, but Aggregates is a price/cost winner. Our gross margin on a trailing 12-month basis returning to expansion in the second quarter was great to see. We've got a good runway ahead of us on that. As Tom highlighted earlier, we still expect low 20% growth this year in our cash gross profit per ton.

It's still tight. The labor market has gotten better from our perspective. I think we've also improved retention and how we handle that. So still a challenge but much improved from where it was over the last couple of years.

Tom and Andrews, I wonder if you just talk about how you're thinking about pricing for '24. It feels like one of the big lessons learned for the industry from '22 is the price for a higher level of inflation, and inflation is lower; do you just get the benefits of that? How are you thinking about the magnitude of those January 1 price increases you spoke about versus the historical 4% to 5% CAGR that you and the industry have delivered, given the backdrop that we've seen over the past 18 months?

As I said, we've got a lot of momentum going with this, and the private side demand being better is helping that. Everybody's got good visibility to the public side. I think that if you go out there and talk to the segment, the Construction Materials and Construction segment, people are feeling a lot better about the future than maybe we were 6 months ago. You can see more of the demand now, so that positive sentiment, the momentum on pricing, and better visibility to demand all set up well for price. As far as magnitude, we're working on that right now, but I would note that our strategy last year was to go out higher on January 1, and I think that worked very well. I don't envision straying from that strategy for 2024.

So I'm a little unclear on the CapEx. I think CapEx is expected to be $600 million to $650 million, but does that include the $200 million in land purchases, or will that be on top of it? Maybe I'm missing it, but those might flow on the acquisition line on the cash flow statement. I'm just not sure. And then just, Tom, any color on the M&A pipeline?

Yes. So Tyler, to clarify, the $200 million we're planning to spend on strategic reserves is in addition to the $600 million to $650 million. It will show up as PP&E as it is land. But I think you're thinking about it right in terms of it being more of an opportunistic strategic acquisition type opportunity. I'll let Tom hit M&A.

Yes. I'd simply describe the acquisition pipeline as improving. The clarity to private demand probably looks a little better than we thought. I would expect improved M&A opportunities as a result. We've got— we always have a couple we're working on, but strategic bolt-ons. I would think this will help the pipeline.

I wanted to follow up on the strategic cash uses. Talking about property purchases, is this because of opportunistic availability? Or is this a need to reach ore reserves? Just some color there? Similarly, I wondered if you would comment on the first share buyback since the pandemic and what that might illustrate for your future plans.

Regarding the land piece, you're exactly right. It is opportunistic. Many times, these opportunities arise much like a bolt-on acquisition—and that's both for acquiring reserves but also for buying reserves and selling land that will be lumpy by nature. You heard Mary Andrews discuss selling $180 million worth of land in '21. So it's unpredictable; it comes when it comes, and mostly, it does not. I'm very pleased with the reserves we've secured; they are primarily in California, Texas, and North Carolina, so we are glad to allocate capital wisely there and pleased with the team's efforts.

In terms of share repurchases, returning excess cash to shareholders through repurchases has been part of our long-standing capital allocation priorities. We believe it's appropriate to follow reinvesting in the business through operating and maintenance CapEx, growing the business, and returning cash through dividends. So with attractive cash generation and slower M&A in the first half of the year, we repurchased $50 million of shares in the second quarter. Our capital allocation decisions in the back half of the year will just follow our same disciplined approach.

Congrats on the strong quarter. My question is regarding your guidance for average volumes you're calling for to be down, call it, 1% to 4%. You want to down modestly in Q2. With housing bottoming and you're calling out pretty good momentum on the infrastructure and heavy commercial side with frankly easier comps in the back half, it feels kind of conservative. Are there any one-offs that we should be mindful of? When we look out to 2024, you're talking about how you're seeing momentum building on infrastructure and heavy on the industrial side. Any color on how to think about the growth profile in those two end markets when we look at 2024?

Yes. I think if you look at the kind of upside and downside to our guidance, the low side, the minus 4 would suggest that single-family shipments would have to fall off, of course, more than we've seen. I think we are witnessing the bottom in single-family. I expect it to improve for 2024. On the high side, at minus 1, we would have to see a bit more volume where we have some of our projects start a little faster. It could happen, and that's why we have the range as we do. I do believe that the heavy piece and it will help us in the second half, and I think it's going to provide significant assistance in 2024 on the heavy industrial side.

Is there a way to think about how that growth profile is going to look next year? Means low single digits for Infra. Is that like a mid- to high single-digit growth story next year?

I think it's too early to call. We just got to see more. I would address that we haven't talked about non-highway infrastructure, which is also looking very good. Our local, state, and federal funding is extremely healthy, and those IIJA starts were up 18% in the past six months while trailing three months are up 20%. So good for '23, probably again low single-digit growth but looking considerably better for '24.

This is actually Brian Biros on for Kathryn. Just on the Asphalt business, can you just touch a little bit more on the performance there? Maybe the volume growth specifically, just kind of what projects are you seeing come to market in that business? Is it more repair work, or is it more new work coming down the pipeline?

The paving business is experiencing both new projects and recovery efforts. I am pleased with the volume growth, especially considering the significant rainfall in Texas, which is an important asphalt market. However, California and Arizona likely had some delays earlier in the year that they needed to catch up on. I am also very satisfied with the pricing and unit margin performance. Overall, this marks a strong beginning for the year in Asphalt, as we are back in a phase of unit margin growth, and the increasing funding for highways will further support this product line.

Great quarter. Tom, I think you characterized the midyear price increases as mixed. What was that? I think there was hope a month or two ago it might be better, and does that bode well for January increases next year?

Yes. Remember, as I said, the sequencing from '22 to '23 was very different. We intentionally went out much higher, much earlier in 2023. So kind of as expected, the midyear increases were successful in some markets while being mixed in others. This will have a little bit of impact on '23, but it's going to have a much larger impact on '24, and that's simply a timing matter—from project pricing to shipment and possibly some backlogs. It does impact 2024. I don't think it slows any momentum for our January 1 price increases. Again, that strategy of going higher early worked very well in '23, and we will adopt that strategy for '24 as well. So that’s where I would leave that.

Give us some update on the situation in Mexico and Macquarie there and the process. Any sort of movement at all?

So the short answer is the same: no news. We've got the NAFTA claim. We'll have the final hearing on that—on the NAFTA tribunal—this year. We should have a result of that in 2024. We feel very good about our position, about our case, about the evidence, but we won't have— we'll finish the legal proceedings this year and have a final ruling in '24.

What would be the best-case scenario if you're successful in that?

I think if we are successful, we expect a large check due to the shutdown of our business. The magnitude of that, we can't disclose due to a confidential agreement with the tribunal.

Tom, nice quarter. I wanted to maybe just ask a little bit on the guidance and you talked about the third quarter being rocky with California and Texas in the second quarter. What's your sort of best estimate of the carryforward tons into the second half due to the disruptive first-half weather?

I think you saw that in California, Arizona in the quarter. You probably will have some of that in the third quarter in Texas. As I said earlier, what I'm impressed with is we're seeing a lot of speedy recovery after wet days in our markets, which tells me that our contractors' firepower is getting much better. I think maybe a little bit in Texas. Everybody else, I think you won't see a lot of carryforward because they've been able to catch up pretty quickly.

Tom, you provided some very helpful observations on expectations for the second half year in '24, but if you're going to isolate either better-than-expected pricing, better-than-expected cost utilization, or better-than-expected volume as we maybe exit '23 into '24, what would you point towards or maybe all of the above?

If you're asking if we expect better performance from '23 to '24, I would tell you probably the best shot goes to volume coming on a little faster than we expected. The flip side would be that we see a more significant slowdown on residential construction. At this point, we don't think that will happen unless we take it one at a time. On pricing, I think we've got it about right because we added a bit in mid-year, but that's going to flow through in '24. The cost piece, I think again means mid-single digits at the end of the year. Between efficiencies and advancing comparisons, we can achieve that. If I had to pick one, I would probably choose the volume piece of that.

Tom, nice to see the continued improvement in Aggregates gross margin this quarter. I guess my question was more for the quarter and thinking about this going forward. With the East under some pressure due to weather and some of those variables, was that actually a net negative to your reported profitability in that segment?

I'm sorry, I couldn't understand what you pointed out as possibly negative.

The East. We do have very attractive margins in our East Coast business. While there was some wet weather, a lot of the strength in the private non-res and these large industrial projects in those areas contributed positively. Our volumes were quite healthy in those markets.

I would also tell you that despite the wet weather in the East, I was impressed with how quickly we had recovery once storms had passed.

Well, thank you all for your interest, your time, and your support of Vulcan Materials Company. We look forward to talking to you throughout the quarter, and we hope that you and your families stay healthy and safe. Thank you.