XOM Fair Value Estimate
$126.4617.1% overvalued
Blended fair value estimate based on DCF, Graham Number, and earnings-based models.
Exxon Mobil Corp
Exchange: NYSESector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Integrated
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Generated $0.8 in free cash flow for every $1 of capital expenditure in FY25.
Current Price
$152.51
-1.63%GoodMoat Value
$126.46
17.1% overvaluedProfile
Valuation (TTM)
Market Cap$643.16B
P/E22.30
EV$712.37B
P/B2.48
Shares Out4.22B
P/Sales1.94
Revenue$332.24B
EV/EBITDA10.10
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) Valuation
GoodMoat Analysis
Exxon Mobil is trading at a premium to its estimated fair value, offering a negative margin of safety. While its valuation multiples are not extreme, they are elevated relative to its low growth profile and the sector average.
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Based on the GoodMoat Target of $126.46, Exxon Mobil's current price of $163.26 is approximately 29% above that fair value estimate. This results in a negative margin of safety, which falls into the 'Unfavourable' band according to the GoodMoat framework's DCF-based assessment. The primary valuation tool suggests the stock is overvalued relative to its intrinsic value. Comparing the P/E of 23.9x to the sector average P/E of 13.8x reveals a significant premium. This multiple also appears high relative to the company's fundamentals, including a -1.3% YoY revenue decline and an 8.7% profit margin. For a value investor, the combination of a premium price, negative growth, and a P/E nearly double the sector average indicates the stock is expensive relative to its quality and earnings power. The 3.4% FCF yield and 2.5% dividend yield do not sufficiently compensate for the lack of a margin of safety. The valuation assessment is unfavourable, as the stock fails to meet the key criterion of trading at a discount to intrinsic value.
XOM Valuation Metrics
FCF$23.61B
FCF Growth Rate28.05%
EPS Growth (CAGR)12.35%
WACC10.00%
Fair Value Models
Graham Number, PEG-based, and Earnings-based models
View Fair Value →XOM Valuation & Fair Value Analysis
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) valuation analysis using multiple fair value methodologies. GoodMoat calculates a blended fair value target using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, the Graham Number, and earnings-based valuation models.
The GoodMoat Fair Value target for Exxon Mobil Corp is $126.46. The current stock price is $152.51, suggesting the stock is 20.6% overvalued.
The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 22.30. Price-to-book ratio is 2.48. Price-to-sales ratio is 1.94. Enterprise value to EBITDA is 10.10. PEG ratio is -2.13.
GoodMoat's valuation models include the Graham Number (based on EPS and book value), an earnings-based model (discounted future EPS), and a PEG-adjusted valuation. The three models are averaged to produce a blended fair value estimate. Use these tools alongside the DCF calculator and reverse DCF to form a comprehensive view of Exxon Mobil Corp's intrinsic value.