Equifax Inc (EFX) — Q2 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

Thanks and good morning, everyone. Welcome to today’s conference call. I’m Jeff Dodge and with me are Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer; John Gamble, Chief Financial Officer; and Trevor Burns with Investor Relations. Today’s call is being recorded. An archive of the recording will be available later today in the Investor Relations section in the About Equifax tab of our website at www.equifax.com. During the call today, we will be making reference to certain materials that can also be found in the Investor Relations section of our website under Earnings Calls, Presentations and Webcasts. These materials are labeled Q2 2020 Earnings Release Presentation. During this call, we will be making certain forward-looking statements to help you understand Equifax and its business environment. These statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Certain risk factors inherent in our business are set forth in filings with the SEC, including our 2019 Form 10-K and subsequent filings. Also, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EPS attributable to Equifax and adjusted EBITDA, which will be adjusted for certain items that affect the comparability of our underlying operational performance. These non-GAAP measures are detailed in reconciliation tables which are included with our earnings release and are also posted on our website. Now, I'd like to turn it over to Mark.

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning everyone. Thanks for joining our second quarter earnings update. Businesses and consumers around the world continue to face challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. I hope you and your families are continuing to be safe in managing this unusual environment. We'd like to once again thank the dedicated and selfless healthcare professionals, first responders, volunteers, and others around the world who are on the frontline fighting this pandemic, and we sympathize with the millions of people in the U.S. and around the world that have been affected. The health impact of the COVID pandemic is devastating, but what is equally challenging to our customers is the unprecedented impact from the COVID pandemic. It is unlike anything in our lifetimes with record unemployment, furloughs, and salary reductions. Data and analytics in this environment are more valuable than ever. During the second quarter, we operated very effectively in our work-from-home mode after COVID restrictions were put in place in late March. After shelter-in-place orders started to lift in early June, we opened up our offices in markets like Atlanta and began to return to office on a 50% density in a Red-Blue team rotational basis. Currently, we have 34 of 51 offices opened and are operating in that mode. We expect to stay in the 50% density in our Red-Blue rotation mode until a vaccine is available. We are operating at a very high level and have realized meaningful productivity and engagement with customers and across our Equifax team through video collaboration, including meeting all of our cloud technology and data transformation milestones. Turning now to slide four, our financial results for the second quarter were very strong and our second consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion driven by Workforce Solutions, the U.S. mortgage market, and our positive performance in the marketplace. The results follow our momentum in the second half of 2019 and the strong first quarter and were well above our expectations. Our performance in the challenging COVID economic environment reflects the strength and resiliency of our business model, our differentiated data assets, including the TWN income and employment data, healthcare utility and commercial data, and the value of data analytics in these unprecedented times. Revenue at $983 million was up 12% on a reported basis and 13% on a local and organic local currency basis, which is well above our expectations and above the framework of 3.5% to 5.5% that we shared with you in early June. If you adjust for the $48 million of incremental Workforce Solutions unemployment claims revenue in the quarter, our revenue increased a strong 8% in local currency. As the quarter unfolded in June, our revenue on all fronts continued to improve from the trends we shared on the June 8th call as shelter in place orders lifted and economic activity improved. These strong results position us well as we move into the third quarter in the second half. Our growth in the quarter was powered by our U.S. B2B businesses, USIS and Workforce Solutions. They both performed extremely well with combined U.S. revenue up 28% and a combined adjusted EBITDA margin of over 50%. Workforce Solutions revenue was exceptionally strong, up 53%; and EBITDA margins were 56%, which was their strongest quarterly results since the acquisition almost 13 years ago and followed strong first quarter and second half of 2019. USIS revenue was up a strong 10%, which reinforced their return to a competitive market position. International revenue was down 15% in local currency but continued to show broad-based sequential improvement throughout the quarter. Global consumer revenue was down just under 5%, principally in our U.S. partner business. The revenue growth drove adjusted EBITDA of $353 million, up 19%, with an over 200 basis point expansion in our adjusted EBITDA margin to 35.9% as we balance cost controls while executing our cloud data and technology transformation and making targeted investments in new products and data analytics. Adjusted EPS of $1.60 a share was up over 14% despite incurring increased data analytics and incremental cloud costs of $0.12 per share and increased interest expense of $0.06 per share for our April bond offering. EBITDA and EPS were both above our expectations and EPS framework of $1.22 to $1.32 we shared with you in early June. The very strong U.S. B2B revenue growth was driven principally by three factors; first, U.S. mortgage revenue was up over 70% versus 2019, extremely strong in the current record low interest rate environment as Equifax outperformed the overall mortgage market growth by approximately 30 percentage points, principally in Workforce Solutions. As you know, we over-indexed in mortgage versus our competitors due to Workforce Solutions in our U.S. tribe mortgage business. U.S. mortgage market inquiries, our proxy for the overall mortgage market growth, were up 41% in the second quarter versus our 70% combined growth in Workforce Solutions and USIS mortgage. Although USIS mortgage revenue growth of 44% grew 300 basis points above the mortgage market, the driver of the substantial outperformance versus the overall market was Workforce Solutions, where mortgage revenue more than doubled in the quarter, driven by the value of our unique twin income and employment data and new products, new customers, improved customer penetration and the expansion of our twin database. We expect continued strong mortgage growth in the third quarter. Second, our unemployment insurance claims business, also part of Workforce Solutions, delivered more than 150% growth in the quarter to $76 million. Incremental revenue growth of $43 million in the quarter was driven by a significant increase in unemployment claims that we all know about during the second quarter, which added 5 percentage points to overall Equifax revenue growth. As you know, Workforce Solutions processes close to one in five unemployment claims in the U.S. We expect unemployment claims to continue above 2019 levels in the third quarter, but at a rate below the second quarter. Third, our U.S. B2B non-mortgage revenue, excluding unemployment insurance claims-based revenue, showed substantial improvement as we move through the second quarter and was down only about 7%. Our U.S. B2B non-mortgage revenue, excluding U.S. UC claims impact showed sequential improvements during the quarter, from down 10% in April to down just 2% in June, as shelter-in-place restrictions were lifted and economic activity improved, which reflects our competitive market position and provides good momentum going into the third quarter. I'll provide more detail on these factors as we discuss each of our business units on slide five. Starting with USIS, their revenue was $366 million, was up 10% in the second quarter on a reported and organic basis, and their 12% first half revenue growth was their strongest since 2014. Mortgage revenue grew 44%, 300 basis points faster than the overall market inquiries that were up 41%, driven by new products, new customers, and pricing. Total mortgage revenue growth from both purchase and refi transactions strengthened significantly through the quarter, exiting June at over 60% above 2019. Total non-mortgage revenue, online and offline combined decreased 7%, much better than expected when we entered the quarter at down 13% in April. In total, non-mortgage revenue was down only 1% in June as economic activity improved sequentially during the quarter, which is above our expectations and a reflection of the USIS competitive position in the marketplace. For the quarter, online revenue was up 7%. Online non-mortgage revenue was down 10% in the quarter but strengthened significantly during the second quarter, with June just down over 2% versus down 17% in April. In June, we had positive growth in auto, insurance, ID and fraud, and direct-to-consumer, with commercial declining high single-digits as U.S. economic activity improved. Telco and banking were both down mid-single-digits in June and showed improvement during the quarter. Banking remains down as customer marketing continues to be at a reduced level until the direction of the economy and the consumer becomes clear. Mortgage solutions, our mortgage and tribal business, was up 44% in the quarter, outgrowing the market by 300 basis points from new products, new customers, and pricing. Financial marketing services revenue was up 1% compared to last year and better than our expectations. Risk decisioning, which includes portfolio review revenue and makes up over 30% of total financial marketing services, was up over 15% in the second quarter as companies expanded their portfolio review activities. Marketing revenue, which also makes up about half of FMS in the quarter, was down just under 20%. The remainder of FMS, which includes our ID and collections products, was up over 25% in the quarter. These general trends are consistent with our expectations; however, portfolio review revenue was stronger than expected. We expect portfolio review activity to remain strong as customers manage challenging customer collections and take proactive portfolio management actions. We are also starting to see increased activity from customers for our marketing services at quarter end, although at much lower levels than 2019. USIS is winning competitively and continues to accelerate commercial activity, and their new deal pipeline remains strong. USIS's new deal pipeline opportunities as of the end of June was at their largest level since 2017, up almost 10% over last year. Equally positive, USIS's win rates in the quarter were up over 300 basis points from last year. USIS's new deal pipeline growth and win rates were both above our expectations and reflect the commercial focus and leadership as USIS returns to market competitiveness. USIS's adjusted EBITDA margins of 44.1% were down 150 basis points from last year and down 60 basis points sequentially. The decline is principally driven by the higher mix of lower margin mortgage revenue and resulting higher royalty costs and data purchases in our non-mortgage online revenue. USIS also continued to invest in commercial resources and NPI resources during the quarter for future growth. Following USIS’s commercial momentum in the second half of 2019 and strong above-expectation results in first and second quarters, we are confident that leadership has moved USIS back into a competitive position in the U.S. market. Shifting to Workforce Solutions. They had another exceptional quarter with revenue of $353 million, up 53%. This is the strongest revenue growth since we acquired TALX in 2007. EWS results were up a strong 33%, excluding the $48 million of incremental UC claims revenue in the quarter. Trailing 12 months revenue was $1.15 billion, up 32%, with 49.6% EBITDA margins up 350 basis points. Rudy Ploder and his EWS team provided a deep dive on our EWS business and growth outlook in early June. They continue to leverage core growth, new products, penetration, pricing, new verticals and record additions to fuel their growth. EWS is on track to be well over $1 billion of revenue in 2020 for the first time, with margins over 50%. Workforce Solutions is clearly our strongest business, particularly in this unprecedented consumer environment, where TWN income and employment data is immensely valuable. Verification Services revenue of $252 million was up 46% versus 2019. Verification Services mortgage revenue more than doubled in the quarter, growing over 60 percentage points faster than the 41% growth we saw in the mortgage market credit inquiries in the quarter. This dramatic outperformance relative to the overall mortgage market is driven by the strategic and operational focus on new products, penetration, usage and record additions that we discussed on our June investor call. As a reminder, the presentation from our June call is available on the Equifax website. Several growth levers are driving this outperformance of Verification Services mortgage revenue relative to the overall mortgage market, including growth in TWN contributor and records. During the quarter, the number of companies contributing to the TWN database increased substantially to over 900,000 from over 700,000 in March and 37,000 a year ago as we expanded into more mid- and smaller market companies. Due to this growth in new contributors, Workforce Solutions was able to offset the negative impact on active TWN records of increasing unemployment. Total active records were 105 million at the end of the quarter, with over 80 million unique individuals, which is just over 50% of the U.S. non-farm payroll. Total active records were up over 15% from a year ago but flat with March due to impacts on the database from unemployment. The TWN database now includes about 435 million active and inactive records. As you know, we are able to monetize both active and inactive TWN records. In addition to growth in employer contributors and overall TWN records and a focus on adding new customers, several new critical strategies are an important component of driving the verification service mortgage revenue growth in excess of the overall mortgage market. First, direct-to-consumer integrations with mortgage underwriters continue to grow, with the work number integrated directly into our customers' underwriting processes. These integrations increased the usage of TWN records and the frequency of TWN polls in the mortgage origination, underwriting, and closing process, which drives TWN verification revenue. Second, new products focused on increasing the number of times TWN income and employment verification is used during the mortgage application approval process. We shared some of the new solutions we are bringing to the marketplace that drive TWN usage and provide value to our customers with you in the June call, and many of these products have pricing that is two to four times our based TWN full product cost. The third aspect is expanding real-time access to additional income sources to include the increasing number of people that work as individual contractors or 1099 self-employed consumers to deepen and broaden the TWN database beyond non-payroll. Shifting to Verification Services non-mortgage revenue growth, it was down less than 5% in the second quarter and delivered 2% growth in June. The decline in the quarter was driven by substantial weakness in talent solutions, our hiring rate services business, where companies across the U.S. cut back on hiring during the quarter, and in debt management services where temporary reductions in collections activity were implemented by many companies. Partially offsetting this were new product rollouts in talent solutions, strength in government verticals related to government healthcare and support services, as well as the growth in records in the TWN database. We also saw growth in the second quarter in auto through increased TWN penetration with auto loan originators and increased use of TWN with higher credit score applicants. We also saw growth in our TWN ID product and in portfolio review product solutions, principally for card and personal loans, which we expect to continue to grow in the second half given the unique value of income and employment data in the current environment. Employer Services revenue of $101 million increased a strong 75% in the quarter, driven by our unemployment claims business, which grew over 150% versus last year to $76 million. Adjusting for the $48 million of incremental UC claims revenue in the quarter, Employer Service was down about 8% as companies cut back on hiring. As a reminder, our UC businesses manage the process of providing the required unemployment data to state and local agencies for employers. Our typical contract is an annual subscription with volume limits and incremental fees as UC claims are above those limits. We operate in all 50 states, Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. In the second quarter, Workforce Solutions processed about 7.5 million claims, which is roughly one in five initial U.S. claims during the second quarter. Claims spiked in April and May to about 5.8 million from a monthly run rate of $300,000 per month in the first quarter. In June, we saw a steady decline in new claims from the elevated April and May rates to 1.7 million claims processed for the month, which was still up dramatically over pre-COVID 2019 levels. The remainder of Employer Services saw revenue decline 17% in the second quarter because of lower new employee hiring activity in the quarter. I-9 and onboarding in our Workforce Analytics business make up the bulk of the remainder of Employer Services. We saw 9% growth in our I-9 and onboarding business, which partially offset the decline in Workforce Analytics in our Tax Services business. The strong EWS verifier revenue growth resulted in adjusted EBITDA margins of 56.3% in the quarter, which was a record for Workforce Solutions and the expansion of 710 basis points versus last year. The strong margin growth was partially offset by incremental costs incurred in the quarter for new TWN records. Workforce Solutions is clearly our most differentiated business with their unique TWN income and employment records. The TWN data assets are increasingly valuable in this COVID consumer environment where verification of income and employment is critical. As we discussed in June, we think about EWS being in the second or third inning, with multiple growth levers for future growth in 2021 and beyond. International revenue of $181 million was down 15% in local currency and down 21% on a reported basis and in line with our expectations. COVID shelter-in-place orders have been deeper and longer in our international markets, with some markets, including Australia, the U.K. and Canada, still not open. This has impacted their revenue, but we've seen sequential revenue improvements from down 20% in April, improving to down 7% in June. Asia Pacific, which is our Australia, New Zealand and India business delivered second quarter revenue of $65 million, down 9% in local and 10% in organic local currency versus last year. The revenue growth was much stronger than the revenue trends of down 20% we experienced in April as revenue trends continued to improve, with June down 4%, adjusted for a large collections deal that closed late in the second quarter. In Australia, revenue growth in fraud and ID and collections partially offset declines in our consumer and marketing services businesses, and to a lesser degree, in our commercial business. European revenues of $48 million were down 25% in local currency in the quarter. Our European credit business was down about 20%, with Spain performing slightly better than the U.K. In the U.K. credit business, revenue improved meaningfully during the quarter from down 27% in April, but they were still down 15% in June as the U.K. is still in a lockdown. Spain credit revenue also improved during the quarter from down 21% in April, but was still down 9% in June as shelter-in-place orders have just begun to be lifted a few weeks ago. Our European debt management business declined 34% in local currency, as expected, principally driven by government enacted policy that temporarily halted consumer debt collections. We expect debt collection activity to resume in the second half. Our Latin American revenues of $34 million decreased 14% in local currency in the quarter. Our two largest markets in Latin America, Chile and Argentina, make up over 50% of the revenue. Importantly, these two markets performed relatively well in the quarter, with Chile down six and Argentina down 10 in local currency compared to last year. April revenue decline for Chile and Argentina were elevated levels in COVID lockdowns, however, June revenue declines were in the low to mid-single digits. These markets continue to benefit from the expansion of Ignite and InterConnect SaaS customer rollouts and strong new product introductions in the past three years. Most of our other Latin American markets were down over 20% consistently through the quarter from the economic impact of the strong COVID lockdowns in those markets. Canada revenue of $33 million declined 13% in local currency in the second quarter. Revenue improved from a decline of about 25% in April to down only about 1% in June as economic activity improved, but shelter-in-place orders still have not been fully lifted in many parts of Canada. Fraud and ID revenue grew in the second quarter from higher government volumes associated with increased applications for government and social services. And we saw growth in June revenue in our mortgage, auto, and small business verticals in Canada. International adjusted EBITDA margins of 21.7% were down 690 basis points from last year, principally reflecting the lower revenue across all regions, partially offset by cost savings achieved during the quarter. Global Consumer Solutions revenue was down 5% on a reported and local currency basis in the quarter. Our Global Consumer Direct business, which is just under half of our GCS business, was down about 3%. Our U.S. Consumer Direct business had revenue declining about 5% versus 2019, but increased sequentially from the first quarter by about 200 basis points. Canada and the U.K. combined consumer direct revenue was about flat in the quarter. Importantly, we are seeing substantial subscriber growth in the U.S. and Canada, our two largest markets. Based on a continuation of these trends, we expect our consumer direct business to show positive revenue growth in the second half, which will be our first growth since 2017 in this market segment. GCS also continues to grow with myEquifax member base with over 6 million consumer members, up from about 2 million a year ago, which provides a foundation for new product offerings. Our remaining GCS business, principally our partner business as well as our benefits channel and events-based business decreased by 5% in the quarter. We delivered high-single-digit growth in our benefits channel and events-based business, but this growth was more than offset by declines in our U.S. Lead Generation partner business as banks pulled back on card and personal loan marketing and originations. As we look to the second half of 2020, declines in our U.S. Lead Generation partner revenue are likely to accelerate as consumer marketing remains at reduced levels more than offsetting the expected growth in Global Consumer Direct, our benefits channel, and events-based business. This will likely result in second half revenue decline in GCS greater than the 5% decline we delivered in the second quarter. GCS adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.8% decreased 210 basis points compared with the prior year due to the effect of revenue decline, partially offset by operating cost efficiencies. In what has been the most challenging economics and health environment we faced in our lifetime, Equifax delivered a very strong performance, with revenue up 12% and adjusted EPS up 14% in the first half. Our resilient business model, differentiated data assets, cloud data and technology transformation, new products, and focus on commercial execution have driven our broad outperformance. Our U.S. B2B businesses, USIS, and EWS, delivered mortgage revenue growth that outperformed the overall mortgage market, substantial growth in our UC revenue, and improving revenue trends across our non-mortgage businesses, the U.S. and international, drove our results. Shifting now to slide six, this page highlights the uniqueness and challenges of the current COVID recession. It is clear that this is the most challenging consumer environment in our lifetime. Compared to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, unemployment rates are up almost 500 basis points with over 20 million Americans out of work. And for the 10% of Americans with negative wage impacts where wages are down 5% to 6%, with many households struggling to manage 25% or more salary reductions or even larger if they're in a furlough. These unprecedented consumer impacts significantly cloud the ability for our customers to manage their business, including marketing, underwriting, and portfolio management. We've seen a significant performance deterioration of prime and near-prime credit portfolios, driven by these job losses and wage reductions. Many project a continuation in job losses or wage reductions as government support programs expire in the coming weeks. In April of this year, approximately 50% of those who suffered a decrease in pay in excess of 25% were individuals with a credit score of 680 or higher, which further complicates the environment for our customers. Forbearances are also driving material loss of predictiveness of traditional credit scores in the sub-prime market. Furthermore, with the CARES Act, loan accommodation and delinquency rates are artificially low and, therefore, not representative of the actual portfolio health. Accommodations have grown from 2.8% pre-COVID in March to 9% of balances today. In these challenging times, differentiated data is more valuable than ever. We're seeing a meaningful increase in customer discussions in this unique environment about data solutions broadly, but with a particular focus on our unique TWN income and employment data, which is sourced every paper. Turning now to slide 7. We updated the comparison of our performance in the current COVID pandemic-driven recession to our performance in the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Based on the growth of Workforce Solutions and our U.S. mortgage business, we are seeing significantly stronger performance in the current COVID recession, with our 13% revenue growth in the second quarter, and in the early stages of the 2008 and 2009 global financial crisis, where Equifax revenue was down 7% to 10% quarterly during that recession. The key drivers of our strong outperformance relative to 2008-2009 include a resilient business model and stronger mix of businesses, with 50% to 55% of Equifax delivering growth or countercyclical performance in 2020 versus only 40% in 2008-2009. Second, U.S. mortgage revenue is at a very high level with refi and purchase transactions continuing at historic levels driven by record low interest rates. We saw mortgage application purchase volume rebound as we exited second quarter, as consumers take advantage of record low interest rates. The MBA application purchase index was up 15% versus 2019 in the last week of June. This strength continued into July. Based on current rates, over 15 million existing mortgages would benefit from refinancing, which is up about 70% higher than the available refi population in 2008-2009, John will give you some further perspective on the second half U.S. mortgage market outlook shortly. Mortgage is clearly much stronger today with revenue in the second quarter for Equifax up over 70%, which is significantly higher than the 20% peak revenue growth we delivered during 2008-2009. Third, Workforce Solutions growth has been accelerated from record growth penetration, new products, and new verticals. Their 53% growth in the second quarter significantly outperformed their peak quarterly growth performance of about 20% in the 2008-2009 global financial crises. In addition to growth in verifications of 46%, the unemployment claims processing business is seeing record volumes, resulting in the $48 million of incremental UC revenue in the second quarter I talked about earlier. Lastly, our commercial momentum from the second half of 2019 and strong first quarter performance as we entered the COVID environment in late March is clearly also driving our results. The Equifax business model and recession resiliency is clearly much stronger than the last recession in 2008-2009. I'll turn the discussion over to John to discuss recent trends in revenue and our underlying markets, as well as review some of our other financial items. But looking at trends at a high level, USIS and Workforce Solutions mortgage revenue continues to be very strong and relatively stable at the elevated levels we saw in June. While we expect mortgage revenue growth rates on a year-over-year basis to remain strong in the third quarter, we do expect growth rates in the third quarter to decline when compared to the second quarter due to strong growth in the mortgage markets in the second half of 2019. In USIS, the improvement in non-mortgage revenue has flattened over the past few weeks after consistent sequential improvements throughout the second quarter. And in some markets and verticals, we've started to see some slight declines in the last few weeks as COVID case counts increased and some shelter-in-place orders returned. In Workforce Solutions, Verification Services trends in non-mortgage revenue remain slightly positive to prior trends, driven by the strategic dynamics of the business and new product rollouts, as we discussed earlier. Workforce Solutions unemployment insurance claims revenue remains at elevated levels at a run rate of over $40 million for the quarter, which is, while positive over 2019, will be substantially lower than the employment claims we expect to be substantially lower than the unemployment claims volume we saw in the second quarter. Given the continued uncertainty regarding the direction and pace of the U.S. and global economy, we do not expect to provide guidance throughout the remainder of 2020. As we did last quarter and in June, we'll provide details on the trends we are seeing in an indicative view of their implications. After John's discussion, I'll come back and review our progress on the technology transformation, new products, and our focus on the second half in 2021. John?

Thanks, Mark. I will refer to the results from continuing operations on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. In the second quarter, general corporate expenses were $122 million, excluding non-recurring costs. The adjusted general corporate expense for the quarter was $75 million, an increase of $8 million from Q2 2019. Corporate functional expenses like finance, HR, and legal have decreased year-over-year due to the cost containment activity Mark mentioned in April. The rise in total general corporate expense is mainly due to higher incentive compensation costs in 2020 because of strong financial performance, along with increased depreciation and amortization. We continue to manage costs diligently across the business. We are and will continue to invest in our technology transformation, data and analytics, new products, and security and will increase investment in these areas as we expect to deliver greater benefits. Outside of these areas, we are limiting headcount increases below attrition rates and have cut discretionary spending. Business travel remains almost nonexistent. We are reviewing our real estate footprint and other areas for potential cost improvements. We plan to start implementing cost improvement initiatives over the next several quarters, although we do not expect significant cost improvements in 2020. For Q2 2020, the effective tax rate for calculating adjusted EPS was 24.4%, which is about 1% higher than we expected. We anticipate the Q3 2020 tax rate to be around 21%. The estimated effective tax rate for the full year for adjusted EPS is about 24%. In Q2 2020 and year-to-date, operating cash flows were $251 million and $282 million respectively, both up $34 million from 2019. Increases in operating cash flow for both Q2 2020 and the first half of 2020 were partly offset by $48 million and $95 million in legal settlement payments during Q2 2020 and year-to-date, respectively. The timing for the remaining $347 million payment to the U.S. Consumer Restitution Fund largely depends on the appeals filed in this case. We do not expect to fund the rest of the settlement until late 2020 or early 2021. Our liquidity and balance sheet remain strong, with nearly $2.7 billion available at June 30th, consisting of $1.4 billion in cash and $1.3 billion in borrowing capacity from our bank credit facilities. As Mark noted, our Q2 results were significantly better than we expected based on trends through May, which we discussed in our June investor call. About 70% of the improved results came from our U.S. B2B business, with the rest from international performance across our geographies. In U.S. B2B, online sales made up roughly two-thirds of the improvement, split evenly between mortgage and non-mortgage sectors. The remainder of our gains came from the USIS Financial Marketing Services and Workforce Solutions unemployment insurance claims businesses. The increase in adjusted EPS is a reflection of stronger revenue margins. Detailed revenue trends shown on slides 9 through 12 illustrate performance in local currencies for Q1 and Q2, and also for April, May, and June. June had two additional business days compared to 2019, which contributed about 3% to the growth rate. We also present trends observed in July and their implications for Q3 2020 if they persist throughout the quarter. For line items without available or relevant daily trends, we haven't provided monthly actuals, but we included both Q1 and Q2 data along with estimates for Q3 2020. Monthly actuals provided should be seen as directional. On slide 9, we see a very positive trend in U.S. B2B revenue through June, fueled by improvements in online sales across USIS and EWS, particularly in mortgage-related online sales, as well as better trends in non-mortgage online revenue. The very strong performance in Workforce Solutions unemployment insurance claims business also contributed significantly to the robust U.S. B2B revenue growth in Q2. Online trends in the U.S. have leveled off over the past month. Although online mortgage daily revenue remains strong, it fluctuates weekly, maintaining consistency over the last month. July mortgage trends indicate a continued daily revenue pattern adjusted for seasonal changes, with lower growth owing to the significant increase in mortgage revenue last year during Q3 and Q4. Non-mortgage online revenue growth was stagnant in the past month, with slight declines in USIS non-mortgage online revenue, while EWS non-mortgage revenue has remained relatively stable. The trends for July regarding non-mortgage online revenue reflect these observations. Workforce Solutions and Employer Services, driven by unemployment claims activity, are expected to show growth in Q3 as well, though at levels significantly lower than Q2. In Q2, USIS financial marketing services benefited from new business in portfolio reviews and marketing services. Given the economic uncertainties, our mid-July estimate for USIS marketing services does not anticipate a repeat performance. Overall, if trends and assumptions from Q2 hold, we should expect another very strong quarter for U.S. B2B. Moving to slide 10, Mark earlier outlined how International performance improved across all regions throughout Q2, with June revenue down just 7% compared to 2019. This broad improvement resulted in a smaller than expected revenue decline for the quarter. The revenue growth trends for July indicate a continuation of the monthly patterns seen leading into the third quarter. The trends shared for GCS in July reflect the earlier discussions Mark had. In consumer direct, an increase in total subscribers is expected to lead to slight revenue growth in Q3. Partner revenue, including our benefits channel and event-based business, is anticipated to decline by about 10% in Q3, with a significantly larger decline expected in Q4. Mark mentioned that GCS total revenue in the second half of 2020 is likely to decrease by over 5%, with Q4 experiencing a much more substantial decline than Q3 due to expected sharp downturns in the Lead Generation-related partner business. Slide 11 presents a comparison of economic factors affecting the mortgage market during the current period, drawing parallels to the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the 2013-2014 mortgage downturn. We are providing this data to help you gauge Equifax’s results for the second half of 2020. According to Black Knight data, with current mortgage rates around 3%, there are over 18 million mortgages potentially eligible for refinance, which is the highest level in the last year and significantly higher than during the 2008-2010 and 2013-2014 periods. Refinancing potential is largely dependent on various factors, including interest rates. For instance, based on Black Knight's data, a rise in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 3.5% would decrease refinance potential to 10 million, and increasing it to 4% would cut this potential to under 5 million. Recent mortgage rates reached an all-time low of just below 3%. The current U.S. unemployment rate at 11% is higher than it was during either the 2008-2010 or 2013-2014 periods. The unemployment forecast for the second half of 2020 shown in this chart is provided by Moody's analytics. Additionally, we will monitor essential metrics such as mortgage delinquency rates, credit scores, and leverage levels, in terms of both debt-to-income and loan-to-value. Considering it is still early in this current crisis, the implications for consumer employment income and the trajectory of ongoing government support are still uncertain. Due to the ongoing unpredictability in forecasting the recession’s direction, depth, and duration related to efforts against COVID-19, we won’t be providing guidance for the third quarter and do not foresee guidance for the remainder of 2020. However, for a general perspective on Equifax's Q3 2020 performance, we will again present an illustrative framework to assist you in understanding our performance. Please look at slide 12. If Equifax's total revenue continues at the described pace, Q3 2020 revenue might increase by 4% to 6% year-over-year, resulting in revenue of $930 million to $950 million for Q3 2020. Adjusted EPS for Q3 2020, given these revenue levels, could range from $1.30 to $1.40 per share, reflecting a decline of 6% to 12% from Q3 2019. Slide 19 breaks down the relationship between revenue growth and the decline in pretax income, and hence adjusted EPS. Importantly, at these adjusted EPS levels, Equifax will generate over $325 million in adjusted EBITDA. This is not guidance, as significant uncertainty remains regarding the pandemic's impact on the economy, our customers, business activities, the phases of economic reopening, and consequently our revenue and earnings. This range reflects current trend variability and does not dictate potential quarterly outcomes. In our April earnings call, we detailed the anticipated costs and capital expenditure savings from the technology transformation. As indicated on slide 13, total cost savings, excluding depreciation and amortization, are expected to reach around $125 million from reduced cost of goods sold and lower development expenses. We also anticipate substantial savings in capital spending as a percentage, expected to decrease by about 7%, which aligns with or slightly under peers. We expect to start realizing net benefits from COGS savings, excluding depreciation and amortization, in late 2021, and aim to reach the run rate for COGS, development expenses, and capital savings during 2022. We plan to reinvest a portion of these savings, so not all will contribute to margin gains. As Mark discussed earlier, we continue to accelerate our technology transformation and will increase investment levels in 2020. Currently, we project 2021 tech costs tied to the Equifax 2020 Technology and Data Security Transformation, excluding legal accruals, to be around $340 million, with capital spending expected to be about $390 million for the entire year. Starting 2021, we will no longer adjust our financial results for one-time costs associated with the technology transformation. These one-time costs are anticipated to substantially decrease from 2020 levels, reaching their peak in Q1 2021 before declining throughout the rest of the year. These one-time transformation costs will impact development expenses, G&A, and COGS. We will continue to report these one-time tech transformation costs for comparability with our adjusted financial results from 2017 to 2020. And now, I will turn it back over to Mark.

Thanks, John. I will conclude by updating you on our cloud transformation, focusing on cloud technology and data transformation as well as our heightened emphasis on new products. First, regarding our EFX 2020 Technology Transformation, throughout 2020, we dedicated most of our efforts in cloud technology and data transformation to our North American operations, accounting for over 80% of our revenue and an even larger share of our income. We are also seeing good progress with our investments in Europe, Latin America, and Asia Pacific, particularly in implementing cloud-native data fabric along with our Ignite and InterConnect API analytical and decision-making frameworks. The major migration to Google Cloud Platform of our North American data exchanges, including the changes to the U.S. Canadian consumer ACRO list and the work number with NTT, is mostly complete, and we expect the full migration, including all data ingestion processes for the exchanges, to be finalized by year-end. At that point, these migrated exchanges will serve as our system of record with our customers. These exchanges are crucial for 2020 and completing this plan remains a strategic focus for us. They generate around 70% of our North American online revenue. Additionally, we are making solid progress on migrating our secondary U.S. exchanges, including the commercial risk exchanges, IXI, property, and DataX exchanges, with several expected to complete by year-end and the rest by the first half of 2021. The Canadian commercial risk exchange migration is anticipated for early 2021. We discussed in April the initial migration of our eID identity validation systems, which we plan to complete in the third quarter. Customer migrations are expected to begin in the latter half of the year, with all eID customers fully migrated by year-end. Our new Luminate cloud identity and fraud suite, developed as a cloud-native solution, will be accessible to customers in the U.S. and Canada during the third quarter. A new eID cloud-native service is also being rolled out for the U.S. as part of the Luminate offering transformation. We are making continuous strides to migrate our customers to our new cloud-based systems, including our InterConnect Ignite API framework. As of the end of the second quarter, USIS had migrated 1,200 U.S. customers, while international operations completed migrations for approximately 2,000 customers. We anticipate maintaining this pace of migration and accelerating it in the latter half of 2020, targeting over 10,000 USIS customer migrations completed by year-end and most of the remaining U.S. customer migrations finished by mid-2021. We are adjusting our development priorities to enhance platform capabilities that facilitate our customers’ transitions to our new systems. As previously mentioned in April, our new Ignite analytics and machine learning platform is now in production at EWS and will be available on GCP this quarter. We continue to expand our Ignite analytics platform globally, with over 200 customers currently using it, including two new FinTech clients added in the second quarter. A significant benefit of migrating our infrastructure to Google will be a notable reduction in our carbon footprint, which aligns with our ESG strategy. Google is the only cloud provider utilizing 100% renewable energy in their data centers, a benefit for us. We are making substantial advances in our cloud technology and data transformation and are excited about the future benefits anticipated for both top and bottom lines. Our cloud-native data and infrastructure are set to distinguish Equifax in the marketplace. Moving to our new product initiatives, which are vital to our EFX2020 Strategy and represent our next phase as we leverage our cloud, data, and technology transformation for growth. To enhance our capabilities in product management and API, we recently appointed Cecilia Mao as our new Chief Product Officer, who has extensive product expertise from her work with FICO, Verisk, and Oracle. She will work alongside Mark Luber, our new USIS Product Officer, to accelerate our product management capabilities for new product growth. We plan to continue adding resources for product development in the second half to position ourselves for growth in 2021 and beyond. We are consistently launching new and refining existing products to meet our customers’ specific needs during the COVID pandemic, including our Equifax Response NOW product initiative in USIS and tailored I-9 and UC Solutions in Workforce Solutions. Recently, USIS introduced industry-specific FICO score segmentation data to our weekly consumer trends reports. With this integration, Equifax stands out as the first company to offer weekly industry-specific FICO score segmentation reports, allowing businesses to better monitor anonymized consumer trends, behaviors, and credit performance across the U.S., helping our customers predict changes in consumer behavior resulting from the COVID recession. As we proceed through the year, we are making significant strides toward our objective of launching over 100 new products in 2020, increasing from about 90 last year and 60 in 2018. Up to June, we have introduced 70 new products and have an active pipeline of additional products at various development stages. Some recent launches include USIS introducing FICO 10-T, which applies trended data for strategies and use cases benefiting from insights into consumer behavior. We partnered with FICO to integrate trended credit bureau data, allowing us to provide insights on the trajectory of certain data elements over time. Workforce Solutions is also emphasizing new product initiatives, with a focus on expanding mortgage solutions, including mortgage TWN ID and I-9 Anywhere products, which are gaining strong market traction. Additionally, we are broadening our data sets in talent reports, incorporating multi-data solutions such as employment verification and degree checks, which can significantly assist hiring decisions in high-turnover sectors like retail and hospitality, especially during the post-COVID recovery phase. We are also advancing our positive data efforts in Australia, having secured over 80% of positive data from contributors, including around 90% of credit card and mortgage data and over 50% of auto and personal loan data in our database. This positive data will enable us to provide analytical insights to our clients, with additional product launches expected later this year. Our new product introductions remain a crucial growth driver for Equifax, and our team is dedicated to prioritizing NPI rollouts for 2020 and recently directing efforts toward global products that support customers during the COVID recession. We plan to continue prioritizing new products and innovations in the latter half of the year to leverage our cloud data and technology transformation for future growth. Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we have engaged with both public and private sector stakeholders to ensure Equifax solutions accurately reflect consumer risk profiles, acknowledging the unique and likely temporary financial challenges presented by the pandemic. We are actively discussing with lawmakers and regulators in every country where we operate to facilitate credit reporting that accurately reflects consumer payment statuses and lender accommodations. In the U.S., we are in regular contact with federal regulators, including the CFPB, sharing data trends concerning consumers and publishers. We take pride that our contributions have informed regulatory guidance that has been widely disseminated throughout the market. Additionally, in several key markets worldwide, Equifax is providing data and insights to federal governments to help policymakers understand the pandemic's effects on consumers in the credit economy. We acknowledge the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on many consumers facing economic hardship. Our COVID resource section on our website assists consumers in managing the potential effects on their credit ratings. In April, we, along with other U.S. credit bureaus, announced the provision of free credit reports to all U.S. consumers through April 2021, as well as offering free reports to Canadian consumers. Recently, Bev Anderson, our Business Unit Leader for GCS, hosted a series of informational webinars for consumers on managing credit during the pandemic. Our GCS team is involved in industry webinars to educate stakeholders about available options and reporting standards. We will continue our support for consumers and remain a proactive partner to help them, businesses, and the economy during these challenging times. In conclusion, as John mentioned, we are still unable to issue guidance for the third quarter or the latter half of the year due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the COVID pandemic, which continues to see rising cases across many regions, affecting shelter-in-place orders, consumer confidence, and overall economic activity. There is also a real risk of a second wave of COVID in the fall and potential for renewed lockdowns. We expect continued impacts from unemployment, furloughs, and salary reductions as government support programs are set to expire in the coming weeks. Like many companies, we face significant uncertainty regarding the duration and extent of the COVID recession and the timing and strength of recovery until a vaccine is widely available. This uncertainty makes it difficult to provide our typical guidance for both the third quarter and the second half of the year. We hope the framework John detailed earlier aids your perspective on Equifax's outlook for the upcoming periods. Even in this challenging environment, Equifax continues to operate effectively. Our robust business model remains resilient and performing amid the pandemic, allowing us to invest in our future. Our strong performance in the second quarter follows a solid first quarter and continued momentum from the latter half of 2019. This performance enables us to keep investing in our cloud technology transformation, data analytics, and new product initiatives to prepare Equifax for future growth in 2021 and beyond. As we look toward the remaining part of 2020 and into 2021 and 2022, we maintain confidence in our business model, growth strategy, cloud, data, and technology investments, and our capability to navigate a challenging COVID environment. Our team is strong, with deep expertise, and we are continuously enhancing our resources. We reported strong financial results for the second quarter, achieving double-digit constant currency revenue growth for the second consecutive quarter and over 200 basis points of margin expansion while further investing in our cloud, data, and technology transformation, data analytics, and new products. Workforce Solutions has dramatically outperformed, with exceptional revenue growth in the second quarter and a notable increase in adjusted EBITDA margins to 55%. These results represent the best we have seen since acquiring the business in 2007, bolstered by significant shifts in the market driven by mortgage and unemployment claims businesses and unprecedented growth in new claims. Workforce Solutions is outpacing the mortgage sector, and our unique TWN income unemployment data is becoming increasingly valuable in this unprecedented economic climate due to its scale, accuracy, and timely nature. We believe Workforce Solutions is well positioned for attractive long-term growth. USIS had a robust quarter as well, with a revenue increase of 10% and the highest first-half growth rate since 2013, driven by strong performance in the U.S. mortgage sector. USIS' pipeline is more robust than it has been since 2017, owing to a renewed commercial focus and the rollout of new products. The business is functioning well and gaining market share. Internationally, we navigated effectively through a challenging global economic landscape, and our GCS direct business is primed for growth in the latter half of the year. As stated, we're making significant strides in our cloud technology and data transformation while beginning to leverage the advantages of our new cloud capabilities. The execution of our cloud investments is a clear priority for our team in 2020. We have accelerated certain spending initiatives, maintaining our strong focus on cloud transformation. We anticipate completing several data exchange migrations by year-end and are progressing well with customer migrations. While we recognize the work that remains, we are energized by the substantial benefits this transformation will provide, including consistent reliability, rapid market entry, and enhanced capability to swiftly launch new products globally, along with the significant revenue growth that John mentioned. We continue to invest in product innovation by expanding our leadership and resources to facilitate the rollout of new products. Our NPI efforts are being accelerated through our cloud transformation, and we aim to launch over 100 new products in 2020. NPI remains a focal point for us in 2020 and beyond as we enhance our investments in new products while taking advantage of our cloud transformation. We are also actively investing in technology, data analytics, new products, and security, while managing cost controls throughout Equifax. Our balance sheet remains sound, ensuring we are prepared for necessary investments in our EFX 2020 cloud data and technology transformation, new products, and data security, while exploring attractive bolt-on acquisitions. We continue to assist consumers through these challenging times by providing free credit reports and consumer education on our website. Looking ahead to the latter half of 2020 and into 2021 and 2022, I am increasingly optimistic about our future as a leading data, analytics, and technology firm. With that, operator, I will open the floor for questions.

Congratulations on the quarter. I was hoping you could talk about the trend of non-mortgage USIS, and how it improved significantly in June, but then it looks like it got a little bit weaker in July. So just wanted to understand what you're hearing from customers in terms of what's led to the slower July, and how we should be thinking about going forward?

Yeah. Toni, I'll start and then John can jump in. We were pleased with the kind of sequential improvement in USIS broadly, and then, of course, in non-mortgages we went through the quarter, particularly as shelter-in-place orders were lifted and economic activity improved. So that was a positive. We just wanted to point out there's still real uncertainties in the marketplace. We've seen markets like Florida, Texas, and California that had some of the recent COVID spikes from our online volumes, seeing some impact on that. It's not meaningful, but it's not continuing the sequential trend. We really just wanted to point out that we expect some uncertainties going forward. One of the other positives that I pointed out a couple of times is the fact that the USIS new deal pipeline in their win rate continues to grow through the second quarter off of the first quarter and off of last year. For us, that's probably the most important element. It's quite challenging to forecast the economic outlook. But seeing Workforce Solutions accelerate their new product rollouts, and really winning in the marketplace competitively is quite positive for us as we think about the third quarter.

And Toni, looking at slide 9, just as a reminder for June, due to the number of business days in the month, there was about a 3% benefit in June that does not carry over into July. This will help you understand the trend between these two months better. For instance, in banking and lending, as Mark mentioned, when we account for that 3% adjustment, banking and lending was down about 10% to 15% in June. We have observed slight weakening at the end of July going into June and July, affecting trends across various USIS verticals. Although this decline wasn't significant, the positive trends we experienced from April through June have flattened and weakened slightly.

Just make one last point, Toni. The biggest challenge right now is when will our customers restart marketing. We've seen some increased activity from below 2019. But there's just so much uncertainty for our customers around the consumer and the economy. Many of them have pulled back on marketing. In counter to that, we've seen a significant increase in activity and dialogues around portfolio management, which is typical in an economic downturn. A lot of resources shift to managing the backlog, managing existing customers, and managing credit lines. So we've got that positive going into marketing. When will our customers get comfortable to market again, I think is the big question, and I think there's a lot of uncertainty on that.

That's very helpful. For my follow-up, just wanted to ask about the really strong margins in Workforce Solutions. Obviously, you had a very strong verifications quarter. So, was that the real driver, or are you also getting some additional leverage from the employer services vertical as well? Just wanted to understand the strength of margins and the sustainability of that?

Yes, we have two strong contributors. UC claims have a high incremental margin along with the growth in verification, which both enhance our margins. Additionally, as you know, our revenue growth across the business and specifically in Workforce Solutions is resulting in very high incremental margins. We were also pleased to see that Workforce outpaced the mortgage market, showcasing the strength and advantages of our data assets and the various strategies we discussed in June regarding Workforce Solutions.

The other thing I would mention is that this is happening in a period when we have strong cost controls in place. So, you're seeing costs being managed very, very tightly while they're seeing very high revenue growth.

Makes sense. Thanks a lot.

Great. Thanks.

Hey, Kevin.

Hey, how are you? There was really nice detail in terms of how EWS positively impacts mortgage. Can you kind of help us frame how it impacts the rest of the credit products that you offer right now? And as we think about that into 2021 as income starts to tick up in the core USIS, more broadly, first mortgage in that EWS?

Yes. We've talked, Kevin, before. I think you're talking about the fact that we go to market as one Equifax with our customers. And as you know, USIS sells to all of our financial institutions, the USIS credit products as well as the Workforce Solutions verification product. So that kind of bundled approach to our customers, we think is a smart way to go to market. It gives us the ability to incentivize our commercial team to sell a full Equifax solution. It allows us to leverage product positions on both the credit and verification side when we're in discussions with customers. And so we're clearly seeing the ability to approach customers with a broad Equifax solution that would include credit data, wealth, and employment data, our NTT data and then, of course, our verification data from Workforce Solutions and bundled solutions in many cases, which we think is attractive for Equifax.

Got it. And then just real quick, you talked about 100 new NPIs and part of that being positively impacted by your cloud transformation. In the cloud transformation, is it the expense benefit that allows you to do that, or do they become more seamless through the cloud, or just could you just help us frame that a little bit more from an NPI perspective?

Yes, we've been discussing this for the past couple of years. We anticipated that the cloud transformation would enable us to accelerate the launch of new products and expedite their market readiness, and we're beginning to see that happen. The positive development is that in the past six months, as we've delved deeper into the cloud transformation, we've successfully introduced new products, which we mentioned during the April call. We're bringing new products to the market that we couldn't have launched two years ago due to our single-data fabric, which allows us to integrate data assets, adopt new solutions, and simplify our application infrastructure, thereby speeding up our time to market. We are excited to witness the initial benefits and believe they will increase, enhancing our capability to introduce more new products in the future. This is evident as we expanded from 60 products last year to over 100 this year. Our aim is to capitalize on our substantial investment in cloud transformation for both data and technology to hasten our new product launches in 2021 and 2022. This focus is essential for growth in our industry and for Equifax. We are dedicated to this initiative, have brought in excellent talent, and plan to add more resources in the second half of the year, as we consider new products to be a crucial element of our growth strategy while leveraging our cloud, data, and technology transformation.

Hey, I have a question about the commercial side. You mentioned discussing the USIS business. Could you provide some details on whether the pipeline and wins you referenced are coming from your competitors, or if they are projects that were put on hold until things got back on track? I'm looking for more insight into the mix there.

We have a leader who has been on the ground for 18 months, and he has transformed the commercial organization over the past six months. There's a significant focus on commercial activities in the marketplace, which is a positive development. The growth in our pipelines comes from a mix of new products. As we increase from 60 to 90 and then toward 100, our team has more opportunities to offer new solutions to customers. We believe that pipeline expansion is also influenced by the COVID response products we've introduced. This is an extraordinary time for our customers, and the value of data is more significant than ever in our industry. Looking back to 2008-2009, there were more ways for our customers to utilize data during a recession, which is guiding our capabilities and discussions with them. Additionally, our win rates have improved year-over-year, indicating that we are more competitive in the marketplace. The concerns from last year regarding cyber events are now past us, and we are focused on operating at a normal, yet aggressive pace to support our customers during this difficult time.

Got it. And just on the new products, 70 to 100 new products a year. I know all the creditors have actually had the cadence revive and just been impressive. But I was just wondering, how do you define what a new product is? And I think in the past, you had actually talked about how you would expect the NPI to contribute, kind of, 10% of revenues in a two-year time frame or something. Do you have any such goals of that to provide some perspective?

We have a very standard rigorous process for defining a new product, ensuring that it truly is new. We have maintained a consistent process for over five years.