Equifax Inc (EFX) — Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Thanks, and good morning. Welcome to today's conference call. I'm Trevor Burns. With me today are Mark Begor, Chief Executive Officer; and John Gamble, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is being recorded. An archive of the recording will be available later today in the IR Calendar section of the News & Events tab on our IR website. During the call, we'll be making reference to certain materials that can also be found in the Presentation section of the News and Events tab at our IR website. These materials are labeled 4Q 2023 earnings conference call. Also, we’ll be making certain forward-looking statements, including first quarter and full-year 2024 guidance to help you understand Equifax and its business environment. These statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Certain risk factors that may impact our business are set forth in filings with the SEC, including our 2022 Form 10-K and subsequent filings. We'll also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA, which will be adjusted on certain items that affect the comparability of our underlying operational performance. In the fourth quarter, Equifax incurred a restructuring charge of $19 million or $0.11 a share. This charge was for costs incurred as we realigned business functions ahead of completing our technology transformation. This restructuring charge is excluded from adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS. These non-GAAP measures are detailed in reconciliation tables, which are included with our earnings release and can be found in the Financial Results section of the Financial Info tab on our IR website. Now I'd like to turn it over to Mark.

Thanks, Trevor, and good morning. Before I cover results for the quarter, I wanted to spend a few minutes on our 2023 performance. Equifax performed extremely well last year against our EFX 2025 strategic priorities. Our strong performance was against one of the most challenging mortgage markets in the last 20-plus years, with our USIS mortgage inquiries down 34% and Equifax mortgage revenue down 17%, which equates to almost $500 million of lost mortgage revenue last year. Despite the significant decline in 2023 mortgage revenue, Equifax delivered. We delivered 2% organic constant currency revenue growth with 7% organic constant currency non-mortgage revenue growth, which was at the low end of our long-term 7% to 10% growth rate. Importantly, we had sequential improvement during the year with 8% total growth and 9% non-mortgage growth in the fourth quarter. We also delivered over 100 new products with a vitality of 14%, which was a record for Equifax and well above our 10% long-term goal. EWF delivered strong 10% organic non-mortgage revenue growth, which allowed them to deliver flat total growth despite mortgage revenue that was down 23%. They delivered sequential non-mortgage revenue growth and exited the fourth quarter with strong 17% non-mortgage growth. Verifier non-mortgage revenue grew 14%, led by government that grew over 30% and talent that grew 5% despite the white-collar hiring market that was down just under 10%. EWS grew current twin records to $168 million, up $16 million or 11%, and grew total records to $657 million or $53 million records. We added 17 new twin partnerships last year, our highest number ever, and have a strong pipeline for 2024. In the third quarter, EWS signed a contract extension to provide income verification to the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services as part of a contract valued at up to $1.2 billion over the next five years, which is the largest contract in Equifax's history. EWS also delivered over 20% new product vitality. USIS delivered 4% revenue growth with 7% non-mortgage growth within their 6% to 8% long-term growth framework, while mortgage declined 5%. The USIS Commercial and Consumer Solutions business had very strong years with double-digit revenue growth led by strong market penetration and new products. International delivered 12% constant dollar revenue growth and 6% organic constant dollar growth, led by continued very strong 17% organic growth in Latin America with a vitality index over 15% and close to 10% revenue growth in our UK CRA. And in July, we completed the BVS acquisition in the fast-growing Brazilian market. We delivered these strong results while making significant progress towards completing our cloud migration, ending the year with about 70% of Equifax revenue in the new Equifax Cloud. We decommissioned seven data centers and migrated about 37,000 customers to the Equifax Cloud. We are convinced that our new EFX cloud single data fabric and AI capabilities are delivering new differentiated products faster with better performance and will provide a competitive advantage to Equifax for years to come. The strong progress we made in 2023 will enable the substantial completion of our North American transformation and customer migrations in the first half of 2024, including decommissioning of the mainframes and major North American data centers. Also in 2024, we expect to make substantial progress towards completing transformation activities in Europe and Latin America. By the end of 2024, we expect to have about 90% of our revenue in the new Equifax cloud with the vast majority of new models and scores being built using Equifax AI. In 2023, we executed very well against our EFX Cloud and broader operational restructuring plan across Equifax, reflecting cost reductions from the closure of major North American data centers and other broader spending controls in excess of our original $210 million goal. We expect an incremental $90 million of run rate spending reductions in 2024, which is up about $25 million from our prior forecast due to the additional actions we took in the fourth quarter that will benefit 2024. Of this $90 million 2024 spending reduction, about $60 million reduces operating expenses and $30 million reduces capital spending. These actions are improving operating margins and lowering the capital intensity of our business. As we move into 2024, I'm energized by our commercial momentum, NPI capabilities, and the benefits of the new Equifax Cloud. Turning to Slide 4, our strong fourth quarter gives us momentum as we move into the new year. Fourth quarter revenue of $1.327 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.81 per share were both at the high end of our guidance. And EBITDA margins at 33.7% were up about 60 basis points sequentially. Our non-mortgage businesses, which represent about 85% of total revenue in the quarter, were very strong with 14% constant currency and 9% organic constant currency non-mortgage revenue growth, also at the high end of our 7% to 10% long-term organic growth framework driven by strong performances at EWS and international. Total U.S. mortgage market was slightly stronger than we expected in the quarter with USIS inquiries down 17%. As mortgage rates declined during the quarter from a 23-year high of 7.9% in late October to about 6.8% late in the year, we saw some increased activity and expect we'll grow if rates continue to decline in 2024. Mortgage volumes began to strengthen slightly relative to normal seasonal levels in December, and we've continued the slight improvements during January, which is a good sign if the market has bottomed. Mortgage market outperformance of 33% for USIS and 18% for EWS last year in the quarter were strong and about as expected. We'll share further perspectives on the mortgage market when we discuss our 2024 guidance. At the BU level, EWS non-mortgage revenue was up a strong 17% and above our expectations, principally due to strength in our government and talent businesses, which drove adjusted EWS EBITDA margins sequentially to above 51%. USIS had a good quarter with revenue up 5%, slightly above our expectations, principally due to stronger mortgage revenue, which drove adjusted EBITDA margins up about 100 basis points sequentially to 35%. International delivered 22% constant dollar revenue growth and 6% organic constant currency revenue growth, excluding the impact of the BVS acquisition. Very strong growth in Latin America and Europe were principally offset by lower-than-expected growth in Asia Pacific. International delivered very strong 31.2% adjusted EBITDA margins, up about 500 basis points sequentially and much stronger than our expectations. Before I cover our business unit results in more detail, I wanted to provide an overview of what we're seeing in the U.S. economy and with the consumer. Broadly, outside of what appears to be a bottoming of the mortgage market, there's not a lot of change from our prior view. The U.S. consumer and our customers remain broadly resilient. Employment remains at historic levels with low unemployment and almost 9 million open jobs, which is positive for consumers and our customers. However, there continue to be some constraints in white-collar hiring. Credit card delinquency rates for prime consumers, which represent about 80% of the market are stable and at historically low levels at less than 1%, but above pre-pandemic levels. However, subprime borrower delinquencies, which have been increasing over the past year are now above pre-pandemic levels and are approaching 2009 levels. Auto delinquency rates for prime consumers, which represent about 80% of the market are also stable and well below 1%, but are above pre-pandemic levels. Delinquencies for subprime consumers are above pre-pandemic levels, as well as above the levels we saw in 2009. And any credit tightening that we've seen has been largely in fintech and subprime, which started well over a year ago. When consumers are working, they largely have the capacity to keep current on their financial obligations, which is good for our customers and for Equifax. Turning to Slide 5, strong twin record growth and the positive impact from new products, penetration, and price drove a strong 18 points of EWS mortgage outperformance in the quarter. As expected, mortgage outperformance was down sequentially from the third quarter as we lapped the 2022 launch of our Mortgage 36 trended data product. EWS had another very strong quarter of twin record additions, adding five million current records in the quarter and $16 million during 2023. EWS grew twin records 11% in the quarter to $168 million on 124 million unique individuals, which was up 9%. Total records, both current and historic are now over $655 million and were up 9%. In terms of coverage, we have current employment records on about 75% of U.S. non-farm payroll and about 60% coverage on the $220 million income-producing Americans. At 124 million active records, we have plenty of room to grow the twin database. During the quarter, we signed agreements with six new payroll processors that will deliver records in 2024. In 2023, we added partnerships with 17 payroll processors and over the past three years, have added partnerships with 33 payroll processors. During the quarter, EWS also surpassed a significant milestone with over three million companies contributing to the work number every pay period, a huge milestone as we continue to focus on expanding our twin coverage. The market continues to adopt higher-value solutions that include trended employment and income history that only Equifax can deliver. For example, in the fourth quarter, over 50% of mortgage revenue incorporated historic records. Turning to Slide 6, Workforce Solutions revenue was up a strong 10% in the quarter, which is a very positive sign as we look towards 2024. Non-mortgage revenue growth of 17% was very strong and up 600 basis points sequentially and at the highest levels that we saw in 2023. Importantly, Verification Services non-mortgage revenue, which represents about 75% of Verifier revenue, delivered very strong 27% growth in the quarter and was up 16 points sequentially. In Government, we saw continued very strong growth with revenue up 47% in the quarter and over 30% for the year. Government revenue was slightly stronger than our expectations given continued CMS redeterminations, the new SNAP contract, record growth, state penetration, and pricing. We expect continued growth in government throughout 2024 with stronger growth in the first half as CMS redeterminations complete prior to the second quarter. Talent Solutions revenue was up 13% in the quarter and up 700 basis points sequentially. As we discussed, we are currently more heavily penetrated in white-collar workers, including technology, professional services, and financial services, which have seen a greater reduction in hiring activity and broad hiring freezes and layoffs than the total labor market over the past 12 to 18 months. These markets are off to a slow start again in January, and we would expect to see slower revenue growth in the first quarter in talent than we delivered in the fourth quarter. We outperformed these underlying markets in the fourth quarter by over 25 points as we delivered new digital solutions, strong new product growth, pricing, and continued expansion of Twin records. Employer Services revenue was down 7% and in line with our expectations, driven by declines in ERC revenue, which is now about $5 million per quarter as the U.S. government has suspended processing new ERC claims. ERC revenue is expected to stay at about these levels through 2024, and we'll see headwinds in our employer vertical from this ERC decline through the third quarter of 2024. Excluding the impact of the declining ERC revenue, Employer Services revenue grew during the quarter driven by growth in our I9 and onboarding businesses despite the negative impact of U.S. hiring. Workforce Solutions adjusted EBITDA margins of 51.2% were better than our expectations, principally due to better expected revenue performance. The strength of EWS and the uniqueness and value of their twin income and employment data, and employer services businesses would be clear again in 2023. EWS is expected to deliver strong growth in 2024 and continue above-market growth in the future. On Slide 7, I'd like to expand on the significant opportunities still in front of us for EWS. This slide details a big $15 billion EWS TAM versus their $2.3 billion of revenue last year. EWS has plenty of room to grow. As you can see, with the exception of housing, which includes mortgage, where our penetration is on the order of 60%, our penetration is in the range of 10% to 20% in each target market where we compete. In each of these markets, we principally compete against pay-per-pay stubs or other forms of manual verifications and we deliver instant verifications, productivity, speed, and accuracy. In both mortgage, government, and talent, where there's a requirement for broad coverage and depth of detail and in talent and mortgage, where there's a need for historical data, we have an opportunity to drive strong future growth from penetration in our existing verticals and leverage that penetration as we continue to expand twin record coverage towards the $220 million income-producing Americans in the United States. As shown on Slide 8, USIS revenue was up over 5% and above our expectations, principally due to stronger-than-expected mortgage revenue. USIS delivered non-mortgage revenue growth of about just over 3% in the quarter and slightly below our 4% growth expectation. USIS mortgage revenue was up 16% and outperformed the mortgage credit inquiries that were down 17% by 33 points. The strong pricing environment drove the very strong outperformance. At $78 million in the quarter, mortgage revenue was 18% of total USIS revenue. B2B non-mortgage online revenue growth was down slightly less than 1% and below our expectations. We continue to see double-digit growth in commercial and single-digit growth in telco and auto with banking and lending about flat. The declines were principally due to weakness in D2C, our business where we sell data to other credit bureaus and insurance. Financial Marketing Services, our B2B offline business, was up 7% and much better than our expectations. In marketing, we saw mid-single-digit growth in the quarter led by double-digit growth in our IXI consumer wealth data business, partially offset by declines in pre-screen marketing. While pre-screen marketing revenue was down in the quarter, we did see an improvement over prior quarters with a return to growth in fintech pre-screen marketing. We continue to see declines in smaller FIs, partially offset by growth in larger FIs. Within risk and account services, we saw limited growth in our portfolio review business but not to the levels we would typically see if our customers were expecting a weakening economy. And within fraud, we saw double-digit revenue growth primarily from new business. USIS Consumer Solutions D2C business had another very strong quarter, up 15% from very good performances in both our consumer direct and indirect channels. And USIS adjusted EBITDA margins were 35.1% in the quarter and in line with our October guidance. Todd and the U.S. team are on offense as they complete their cloud transformation in the first half of 2024 and pivot to leveraging their new cloud capabilities to deliver new products and drive share gains. In the quarter, the USIS team signed an extension to the NCTUE cellphone and utility payment data relationship, allowing USIS to exclusively manage the database and continue bringing new products to market that expand lending to consumers, including our differentiated USIS mortgage credit file solution that incorporates NC+ cell phone and utility data that only Equifax can provide. Turning to Slide 9, International revenue was up 22% in constant currency and up 6% in organic constant currency, excluding the impact of BVS and above the 20% growth we guided to in October due to better-than-expected revenue in Latin America, slightly offset by lower Asia Pacific revenue. Europe, local currency revenue was up a strong 9% in the quarter from strong double-digit growth in our UK CRE business. And as expected, a return to growth from our UK debt management business. Latin America local currency revenue, excluding Brazil, was up 30% versus last year, driven by strong double-digit growth in Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Central America from new product introductions and pricing actions. Brazil revenue in the quarter on a reported basis was $41 million. We continue to make good progress on the Brazil integration with strong progress in bringing new Equifax solutions such as count and mitigator to the Brazilian market as well as bringing EFX data and analytics expertise to our Brazilian customers. Our global Equifax teams are very engaged in integration activities, including moving BVS to the Equifax cloud and single data fabric. Canada delivered low single-digit growth in the quarter as expected. Canada will complete their migration to the Equifax cloud by mid-2024. And similar to USIS, we expect to see accelerated NPI growth going forward. In Asia Pacific, revenue was below our expectations with revenue down 2% and due to lower market volumes in Consumer and Commercial, particularly late in November and December. We expect Asia Pacific to have declining revenue in the first half of 2024 due to the softer market conditions and the near-term impact of long-term contract extensions we signed with several large customers. We expect Asia Pacific to return to revenue growth in the second half of 2024. Despite the decline in revenue, Asia Pacific adjusted EBITDA margins were up over 200 basis points sequentially from strong cost management. International adjusted EBITDA margins of 31.2% were up almost 500 basis points sequentially, an outstanding performance. The improvement was driven by revenue growth and good execution against our 2023 cost reduction plan by Lisa and the international team. Turning to Slide 10. In the fourth quarter, overall non-mortgage constant dollar revenue grew a very strong 14% with organic growth of 9%, up over 250 basis points sequentially. A very good sign as we move into 2024. The acceleration in organic revenue growth was driven by very strong EWS Verifier non-mortgage revenue performance. As we look to 2024, we expect non-mortgage constant dollar revenue growth to be over 10.5% with organic growth of almost 8.5%, about 150 basis points above the levels delivered last year. Non-mortgage organic revenue growth is expected to be led again by EWS, driven by strong growth in their government and talent businesses. Turning to Slide 11. We delivered strong 14% vitality, again in the quarter, led by very strong performance in EWS with a VI over 20% as well as over 15% in Latin America. Importantly, USIS accelerated in the fourth quarter to 7%, which was up over 200 basis points sequentially as we get closer to cloud completion and are able to begin to leverage our new cloud-native infrastructure for innovation and new products. Our strong vitality index results are not only led by over 100 new products launched in each of the last four years, but the increasing average revenue per new product, which is up close to 50% since 2021. During the quarter, about 90% of new product revenue came from non-mortgage products leveraging the Equifax cloud. The positive momentum in our NPI and Vitality Index is encouraging for the future and reinforces our long-term strategy of leveraging our differentiated data assets and new cloud capabilities to drive new solutions for our customers. Leveraging our Equifax cloud capabilities to drive new product rollouts, we expect to deliver a vitality index of over 10% again in 2024. On the right side of the slide, we've highlighted several new products introduced in the quarter. These new solutions are a testament to the power of the Equifax cloud and driving innovation that can create the visibility of consumers to help expand access to credit and create new mainstream financial opportunities as well as drive Equifax top-line growth and margins. Turning to Slide 12, we believe Equifax AI, leveraging our differentiated data assets, our new Equifax cloud capabilities and new product focus, is positioning our industry-leading EFX AI powered model scores and products. On the left side of the side of the slide, our large and diverse proprietary data sets is a significant differentiator for Equifax. Our proprietary data at scale, keyed in linked in our single data fabric leveraging our new Equifax cloud gives us significant advantages in using AI to build more predictive multi-data models, scores, and products. Our ESXi is enabled by our EFX developed explainable AI solutions that leverage our Ignite platform and our Google Vertex capabilities. Our modern AI and ML-enabled cloud-based model scoring engine and our over 1,000 Equifax DNA professionals. AI leveraging our patented explainable AI capabilities is a big priority for Equifax in '24 and beyond as we complete the Equifax cloud. As shown on the chart in the middle of Slide 12, we've made tremendous progress building advanced models in leveraging our market-leading AI capabilities. In 2023, 70% of our new models were built using AI and ML tools, up from 60% in '22 with a goal of over 80% this year. Our investments in AI are generating results. To date, Equifax has received over 90 approved AI patents supporting areas such as our proprietary AI NeuroDecision Technology, or NDT, and explainable AI with over 130 AI patents pending. We've launched new products developing at EFX AI, including Equifax OneScore for consumers incorporating traditional credit, alternative credit, as well as cell phone utility and pay TV data, which has improved the performance of the solution to score 20% more consumers. We are energized about the capabilities that Equifax AI is bringing to strengthen our business and accelerate the value of our proprietary data through richer data combinations. Now let's turn to 2024 guidance. Moving to Slide 13, we entered 2024 with momentum from the fourth quarter and the underlying growth of our non-mortgage businesses and the strong execution against our EFX 2026 strategic priorities. The U.S. mortgage market appears to have bottomed and through January, we're seeing some slight improvements versus our expectations in both USIS and EWS, which is good news for the future. Our 2024 planning assumption is that the current level of U.S. mortgage activity will continue for the rest of the year with adjustments for seasonality. On this basis, U.S. mortgage inquiries across USIS and EWS would be down on a blended basis by 15%. We're assuming twin inquiries will see a slightly smaller decline in USIS credit inquiries as the level of consumer shopping behavior moderates. For perspective, our 2024 framework is over 30 points lower than the average current forecast from MBA, which is currently forecasting 24 origination units, up 17% versus our down 15%. And Fannie Mae, which is not forecasting units, but is forecasting origination dollar volumes up 24%. MBA and Fannie Mae forecast mortgage rates move down to 6.1% and 5.8%, respectively, from 6.8% today. We will continue to forecast our mortgage market trends or current EFX run rates as we have done for the past 5-plus years. And as in the past, we do not include interest rate decreases or increases in our forecast. We will continue to share mortgage credit inquiry volume changes with you each quarter so you can make your own judgments on the mortgage market outlook for the future. Further, we are assuming that the U.S. economy will see modest deacceleration in '24 with growth slightly below the 2% average we generally assume in our long-term growth framework. In our key international countries, we expect slowing and low levels of GDP growth in Australia and in Canada, UK and Brazil, we expect about flat GDP. Despite the decline in the U.S. mortgage market and some modest economic deacceleration across our major markets, we expect to deliver 2024 revenue of about $5.72 billion at the midpoint of our guidance with reported growth at the midpoint of 8.6%. Constant currency revenue growth is expected to be about 10.5%, with organic constant currency revenue growth of 8.5% and again at the center of our 7% to 10% long-term organic growth framework. Total mortgage revenue growth should be about 9.5%, about 24 points better than the about 15% decline from the USIS and EWS mortgage inquiries in our framework. Non-mortgage constant dollar revenue should grow over 10.5%, with organic growth of almost 8.5%, and FX is about 190 basis points negative to our revenue growth. We expect Workforce Solutions to deliver revenue growth of about 8% in 2024. This reflects mortgage revenue at up just under 2%, about 15 points better than underlying EWS mortgage transactions. And EWS non-mortgage verticals are expected to grow almost 10.5%. Excluding the expected significant decline in ERC revenue as that pandemic support program completes, EWS non-mortgage revenue growth is about 12%, which is a strong performance given the expected weak hiring market in 2024 as well as the weaker overall U.S. economy. Talent in EWS is expected to grow about 7% despite a decline in our underlying markets and government is expected to deliver over 15% growth against a very strong over 30% comp last year. Twin record growth in the NPI Vitality Index of over our 10% EFX goal and continued strong growth in both pricing and penetration will continue to drive EWS outperformance. We expect USIS to deliver revenue growth of almost 8% in 2024 at the high-end of their long-term growth target of 6% to 8%. Mortgage revenue is expected to grow over 20%, over 35 points stronger than the expected 16% decline in mortgage market inquiries. We are continuing to see substantial revenue benefits from both pricing increases from one of our largest USIS mortgage vendors that we pass on to customers at levels to maintain consistent margins and new product and pricing benefits by USIS. Non-mortgage revenue in USIS is expected to grow almost 4% despite modestly slower economic growth. The non-mortgage growth will be driven by continued strong commercial and identity and fraud growth, as well as mid-single-digit growth in FI and auto. Consumer Services is expected to grow about 5%, with financial marketing services expected to grow in the low single-digit percent. And we expect to see weaker revenue growth in D2C and telco. International had a very good 2023 with 6% organic constant dollar revenue growth but saw some weakening in end markets late in the year, particularly in Canada and Australia. We expect international constant currency growth to be over 15% in 2024 with organic constant currency growth of about 10%. The accelerating inflation we are seeing in Argentina is expected to benefit overall international revenue growth by over 5 percentage points. Although uncertain, we have assumed currency devaluation in Argentina will be more than offset by inflation in our 2024 planning. We expect our new product vitality index to be over 10% again in 2024, led by EWS in Latin America. As the U.S. and IS and Canada principally complete their cloud transformation, we expect their NPI rollouts to accelerate as we exit 2024. For the full year, EBITDA is expected to be about $1.9 billion, up over 12% with adjusted EBITDA margins of about 33.3%. And adjusted EPS is expected to be about $7.35 per share, up about 9.5% from last year. Capital spending will decline by over $100 million to about $475 million or about 8.3% of revenue. The reduction reflects our progress in completing our cloud transformation and is a significant step towards our goal of 7% or below as we exit 2025.

Now I'd like to turn it over to John to provide more detail on our 2024 assumptions and guidance and also to provide our first quarter framework. Our 2024 guidance builds on our strong 2023 non-mortgage growth from new products, record growth, and pricing. Thanks, Mark. As Mark discussed, and as shown on Slide 14, our planning assumes a 16% reduction in mortgage credit inquiries in 2024. 1Q '24 is expected to see USIS mortgage credit inquiries down over 26% year-to-year with EWS twin inquiries at similar levels. Sequentially, as we move through 2024, we are assuming overall mortgage activity stays at about these levels with normal seasonality for the remaining quarters of 2024. Slide 15 provides a full year revenue walk, detailing the drivers of the 8.6% revenue growth to the midpoint of our 2024 revenue guidance of $5.72 billion. The blended about 15% decline in the U.S. mortgage credit and twin inquiries is negatively impacting 2024 total revenue growth by almost 3%. Mortgage revenue outperformance relative to the mortgage market at about 24 points is expected to benefit 2024 total revenue growth by about 4.5%, more than offsetting the almost 3 percentage points of negative revenue impact from the mortgage market decline. As a result, the expected about 9.5% increase in total mortgage revenue was a positive 1.5% impact on overall revenue growth. Non-mortgage organic revenue growth is expected to be about 8.5% on a constant currency basis and is driving about 7% of the growth in overall revenue. As Mark referenced earlier, the growth is within our long-term framework and is broad-based across all three business units and again, the strongest performance in Workforce Solutions. The BVS acquisition completed last August is expected to contribute about 2 percentage points of revenue growth to 2024. Slide 16 provides an adjusted EPS walk, detailing the drivers of the expected 9.5% increase to the midpoint of our 2024 adjusted EPS guidance of $7.35 per share. Revenue growth of 8.6% at our 2023 EBITDA margins of 32.2% will deliver 12.5% growth in adjusted EPS. EBITDA margins in 2024 are expected to be about 33.3%, expanding about 110 basis points from 2023. The margin expansion delivers about 6 points of adjusted EPS growth. The expansion in margins is driven by the factors: organic constant dollar revenue growth in 2024 at about 8.5% is within our long-term financial framework. Consistent with that framework, we will generate about 50 basis points of margin expansion from high variable margins on our revenue growth. The cost reduction actions we executed in 2023 as well as actions related to the charge we announced this quarter will generate about $90 million in incremental spending reductions in 2024, of which about $60 million is expense savings in 2024 or about 100 basis points in EBITDA margin expansion. The actions we took in 2023 will generate an additional $65 million in spending reductions in 2024 on top of the $210 million of spending reductions in 2023. The cost action we announced this quarter will generate an additional $25 million in spending reductions in 2024. In 2024, cost savings we will generate from decommissioning of North American infrastructure in the second half of '23 will exceed the redundant system and migration costs we are incurring, generating about 30 basis points of margin benefit. Partially offsetting the about 180 basis points of margin expansion I referenced above is principally higher variable compensation expense from the normalization of incentive and sales compensation in 2024 that were at low levels in 2023 due to the substantial impact of the weak mortgage market on our performance. In 2024, our planning assumes we return to target levels of performance. As we look beyond 2024, the cost benefits of completing our cloud migration as well as accelerating high variable profit revenue growth are expected to drive significant improvement in EBITDA margins. In 2024, adjusted EBITDA should increase to about $1.9 billion, up 12.5% from 2023. Depreciation and amortization is expected to increase by about $60 million in 2024, which will negatively impact adjusted EPS by about 5%. D&A is increasing in 2024 as we accelerate putting cloud-native systems into production. The P&L line items below operating income, principally interest and other expenses and tax expenses, are expected to negatively impact adjusted EPS by about 4 percentage points. The increase in interest expense reflects the impact of higher interest rates and the increased debt from our BVS acquisition. Our estimated tax rate of about 26.7% is 50 basis points higher than the 26.2% in 2023, principally from higher foreign earnings. Slide 17 provides the specifics on our 2024 full year guidance that Mark discussed in detail. This slide includes additional detail on expected business unit adjusted EBITDA margins as well as guidance on specific P&L line items. EWS EBITDA margins in 2024 at 52% are expected to be up from the 51% delivered in 2023, given strong non-mortgage revenue growth from new products, record growth, penetration, and pricing, partially offset by the normalization of incentive compensation. USIS EBITDA margins are expected to be about 34.5%, about flat with 2023. USIS is benefiting from revenue growth and 2023 cost actions. However, in the first half ‘24, USIS will have redundant systems costs as well as costs related to customer migrations prior to the completion of migration of the consumer credit systems to Data Fabric. USIS is also being impacted by the normalization of incentive compensation. International EBITDA margins at about 28% are expected to expand versus the 26.5% delivered in 2023, driven principally by revenue growth and good performance on 2023 cost actions. Corporate expense, excluding depreciation and amortization is increasing in 2024 relative to 2023 due to the increases in incentive and equity compensation from the lower levels incurred in 2023 that I referenced earlier. Corporate functions such as finance, legal, HR, corporate technology, and others are managing costs consistent with the cost actions we have taken in 2023. As Mark indicated, capital spending should be about $475 million in 2024, down over $100 million from 2023. We believe that our guidance is centered at the midpoint of both our revenue and adjusted EPS guidance ranges. With EBITDA increasing to about $1.9 billion and capital spending declining to $475 million, we expect to deliver over 50% growth in free cash flow in 2024 versus the $518 million we delivered in 2023. At this level of EBITDA and free cash flow, our EBITDA leverage should decline from the current levels of about 3.2x to 2.5x as we complete 2024. We believe these levels of leverage are nicely within the levels required for our current BBB, Baa2 credit ratings. As we achieve these levels, we will have significant flexibility to begin to return cash to shareholders through dividend increases and share repurchases as well as continue to do bolt-on acquisitions. Slide 18 provides our guidance for 1Q '24. Revenue at the midpoint of guidance is expected to be about $1.385 billion, up 6.4% from 1Q '23. Constant currency growth is expected to be about 7.8%, with organic constant currency growth of about 4.7%. Non-mortgage revenue constant currency growth will be about 9.5%. Mortgage revenue should grow about 1% despite overall USIS and twin inquiry transactions being down about 26%. Business unit performance in the first quarter is expected to be as described below: Workforce Solutions revenue is expected to grow about 2% year-to-year. EWS mortgage revenue will be down about 15% and is expected to outperform underlying twin inquiries by about 11%. This mortgage outperformance is below the 18% we saw in Q4 as we lap the substantial growth in mortgage 36 volumes that occurred in the first quarter of '23. As we have discussed in the past, EWS long-term mortgage outperformance is expected to be about 11% to 13%, consistent with twin records, products, and price levers that will drive overall Workforce Solutions' long-term revenue growth to 13% to 15%. Non-mortgage revenue should grow about 9% with Verifier non-mortgage revenue up 15%. Employer revenue will be down about 4% in the quarter due to the decline in ERC revenue that was referenced earlier. Excluding the significant decline in ERC revenue, total Workforce Solutions non-mortgage revenue will be up over 11% with employer up about 4.5%. EBITDA margins are expected to be about 50.5%, about flat year-to-year and down a little over 50 basis points sequentially, principally due to negative seasonal mix from higher employer services revenue in Q1. USIS revenue is expected to be up about 9% year-to-year. Mortgage revenue will be up over 25%. USIS mortgage revenue is expected to outperform USIS credit inquiries by over 50% in the quarter. In the first quarter, we are benefiting from the significant price increases from a vendor that we discussed earlier as well as Equifax new product growth and pricing benefits. This level of outperformance versus the mortgage credit inquiries is expected to decline to under 30% as we move through 2024. USIS non-mortgage revenue is expected to be up about 3%. Non-mortgage will again be led by strong growth in commercial and identity and fraud and continued growth in FI consumer and FMS. EBITDA margins are expected to be about 32%, flat versus the first quarter of '23 and down about 300 basis points sequentially. In the first half of 2024, USIS is also incurring incremental costs from customer migrations to the Consumer Credit Exchange on Data Fabric. This is impacting Q1 '24 margins in addition to the seasonal decline in non-mortgage revenue and normalization of incentive compensation we referenced earlier. International constant currency revenue is expected to be up about 18%, representing about 4% organic constant currency growth from continued strong growth in Latam and Europe as well as mid-single-digit growth in Canada, offset by the decline in Asia Pacific discussed earlier. EBITDA margins are expected to be about 24%, up about 50 basis points versus Q1 '23, but down sequentially due to seasonally lower revenue in Canada and the UK, CRA, and incentive costs. Q1 '24 Equifax EBITDA margins are expected to be about 29%, about flat with the first quarter of '23. As we discussed last year, corporate expense is much higher in the first quarter each year. The bulk of the expense related to our equity plans occurs in the first quarter and is reflected in corporate. Excluding the timing of equity compensation expense and the normalization of variable compensation in 2024, EBITDA margins would be over 32%. Corporate expenses will decrease meaningfully sequentially in Q2 '24 as the equity compensation was principally reflected in Q1 '24. We are expecting adjusted EPS in Q1 '24 to be $1.33 to $1.43 per share compared to Q1 '23 adjusted EPS of $1.43 per share.

Thanks, John. The significant 50% drop in the mortgage market compared to typical levels from 2015 to 2019 greatly affected Equifax, resulting in nearly $1 billion of revenue being removed from our financial statements over the last two years. Despite this exceptional decline in the mortgage market, our wide-ranging business operations achieved strong growth, surpassing the mortgage market by over 20 percentage points, maintaining a constant dollar non-mortgage growth rate of 10% to 20%, a 13% vitality index from new products, and incorporating additional acquisitions. According to our 2024 guidance, the U.S. mortgage market is approximately 50% below its historical average inquiries. As the market stabilizes and shifts from being a challenge to a benefit, coupled with a recovery towards historical norms, there is over $1 billion of annual revenue potential for Equifax that isn't accounted for in our current 2024 projections. With over $1 billion in gross mortgage margins, we generated over $700 million in EBITDA and expect to add $4 per share to our financials in 2024, 2025, and 2026 as the market recovers. To summarize, Equifax had another strong quarter with a 14% constant dollar non-mortgage revenue growth, showcasing the robustness of our business model and effective execution of our strategic goals for 2026. We have strong momentum as we approach 2024. For 2024, we anticipate a 9% revenue growth and a 110 basis point increase in adjusted EBITDA margins from this growth and our cost-saving initiatives, despite an expected 15% decline in the mortgage market. As previously mentioned, as the mortgage market hits bottom, we expect it to become a benefit in the coming years as it returns to normal inquiry levels. A major focus for 2024 is to finalize our North American cloud transition along with significant elements of our global markets, which will lead to ongoing margin improvements and decreased capital intensity, thanks to our data and technology cloud transformation. Completing 2024 with 90% of Equifax's revenue generated from the new cloud is a significant milestone that will allow our team to fully concentrate on growth. We are beginning the next phase of the new Equifax as we shift from constructing the cloud to utilizing its capabilities to enhance our revenue and profits. We are confident that the differentiated data assets in our new single data fabric and the use of EFX AI and machine learning, combined with our leading businesses, will result in higher growth, increased margins, and greater free cash flow in the future. I am excited about our strong 2023 performance and the momentum as we move into 2024, and I am even more enthusiastic about the future of the new Equifax. Now, operator, I’ll open the floor for questions.

This is Brendan speaking on behalf of Manav. I wanted to quickly ask about the inquiries for USIS compared to twin. It seemed you were indicating that next year, twin might perform slightly better because USIS is seeing a better comparison in shopping activity. I just want to confirm that, and also understand why, given that this year, the inquiries for twin have been noticeably worse than those for USIS.

Yes. In your question, you already provided a significant part of the answer. We believe that USIS is comparing against 2023, which saw particularly high shopping activity, so their decline rate in 2024 will be less significant when compared to that very strong performance in 2023 due to shopping trends. We think this is likely the main factor at play. Additionally, we assess current market run rates and year-over-year growth rates, and we project those throughout the year. That is what we mean by using run rates. We are observing this as we review data from January and late December. Therefore, we find our observations to be consistent with my earlier description.

Could you walk through some of your assumptions on talent, specifically regarding the volume assumptions you are using?

We indicated that in terms of talent, we're looking at BLS, which is currently down about 10% for the segments we support. We expect to significantly outperform the market by over 10 points. We feel very confident in our ability to continue growing talent, even if the hiring market is likely to be down around 10%, which aligns with what we've observed so far this year and in the latter half of the fourth quarter.

John, could you just tell us how much mortgage revenues was as a percent of revenues in the fourth quarter? And also, could you just give us a sense of how much mortgage revenues have in terms of incremental margins in the '24 guide?

So mortgage revenue in the fourth quarter was 15% of total. And for the fiscal year was 19%, right? And just for perspective, in the first quarter, it's going to be on the order of 20%, we think. A little under 20% based on the guidance we provided. That's driven by our outperformance in both EWS and USIS, that we talked about, Andrew.

Can you ask the second question again?

Generally speaking, we have discussed this before, our gross margin on blended mortgage is quite variable and largely influenced by the mix. Our margin on mortgage solutions, particularly our tri-merge business, differs significantly from our margin in the overall USIS business, which is also distinct from our margin in EWS. EWS typically has the highest margins compared to the other two, particularly when compared to the blended USIS margins. Overall, we are estimating around 65% gross margins for the mortgage business.

Just on the guidance for 8.5% non-mortgage growth for 2024. Can you just talk to how we should be interpreting that in maybe just any areas where you think there could be some upside in your mind as we go through the year?

Well, we think the 8.5% is quite good. It's obviously inside of our 8% to 12% range, which is how we want to grow the company. We've talked about some of the pressures on our non-mortgage really in the talent market. And then second is the ERC impact, which that program has been curtailed by the IRS. And John talked about the impact that that's having, which is on Equifax is a meaningful amount on a year-over-year basis. As far as upsides, I don't think we think about any upsides to that 8.5% because we think it's a pretty good growth rate.

Okay. Fair enough. Can you discuss how much is remaining on the Medicaid determination for the second quarter and its expected contribution for the first half of 2024?

Yes, we haven't provided specific dollar figures. However, we have noted that it remains beneficial for us, as it was in the fourth quarter, and we anticipate this will continue into the first and second quarters. Just as a reminder, redetermination is a regular part of benefits programs funded by the federal government. There was indeed an accelerated redetermination program that followed the end of the pandemic freezes. Moving forward, we will continue to see redetermination revenue from our government business, and it will be a consistent driver of growth once we navigate through 2024 and beyond the current accelerated redetermination activity.

Government vertical growth within Workforce Solutions is just one aspect we've discussed. This business performed exceptionally well last year and again in 2022, finishing the year above $500 million. It has substantial growth potential at the state level as we continue to expand. Our total addressable market in this area is over $3 billion compared to the $500 million we've achieved, indicating significant opportunities in states that have yet to adopt our solution. Many are still relying on manual income and employment verification for government social services. Recently, we secured a major extension to our CMS contract worth $1.2 billion, which will take effect in 2024. Additionally, we signed a new USDA contract in September that will also begin in 2024. There are numerous growth opportunities in the government sector, and we feel optimistic about this. We anticipate that this segment will contribute significantly to Workforce Solutions and will exceed the projected long-term growth rate of 13% to 15%, especially in 2024.

Great, I appreciate you taking the questions. I wanted to touch on the non-mortgage growth that you guys called out in the guide. I think you guys have walked through some assumptions on kind of volume on mortgage and talent really well. I just wanted to see if you could provide any color for your volume assumptions around some other areas such as whether it's auto or cards, auto, consumer just to try to kind of figure out the delta between pricing and share versus volume trends in those markets?

We don't anticipate significant changes as we enter 2024 in areas like cards, auto, and personal loans compared to their performance in the latter half of last year. While fintech experienced some challenges in late 2022 and early 2023, it seems to have stabilized now, not facing further declines, which is a positive shift from last year. Large financial institutions remain steady in their origination activities due to strong consumer demand. However, some smaller institutions may face fluctuations due to liquidity issues. Overall, we're not seeing a major change from the trends we observed in the second half of last year.

That makes sense and is helpful. I would like to follow up on capital deployment and priorities. Can you share how you prioritize your near-term capital initiatives? You mentioned leveraging opportunities and potentially buying back stock or increasing the dividend. How are you viewing these initiatives in relation to potential bolt-on M&A, and what is the near-term priority between the two?

Yes. So I'll go near term, which is 2024, I think we laid out that CapEx is coming down again this year in 2024. We expect it to step down again next year as we complete the cloud, big cloud completion in our USIS business and some of our international properties in the first half of this year and getting to 90% cloud complete will be a big milestone. So you're going to see our CapEx come down over the short term, meaning in '24 and over the medium term in '25 again as we complete the cloud. Over that timeframe, we expect our margins to continue to expand, which will grow our free cash flow. Our free cash flow this year is up almost 2x.

It's well over 50% this year, yes.

Our free cash flow for 2024 is significantly higher, and we anticipate continued growth into 2025 and 2026. By back in 2024, we have a pipeline of mergers and acquisitions that we are monitoring. Given that we are already in February, any M&A activity is likely to occur in the second half of the year if we decide to proceed. We will maintain our disciplined approach to M&A as we have in the past, focusing on integrating the numerous acquisitions we've made, with 14 completed in just over three years, including Boa Vista, which we discussed on the call. Looking ahead to 2025 and 2026, we plan to undertake additional bolt-on M&A within our framework of 8 to 12, which includes 1 to 2 points of revenue growth from these acquisitions. This approach is a key part of our strategy. We have consistently stated that as our margins grow—targeting 39% and aiming for an additional 50 basis points annually after reaching that—along with a reduction in our capital expenditures, we expect to generate significant excess free cash flow in 2025 and 2026. This would allow us to consider restarting our dividend and potentially buying back substantial amounts of our stock, a goal we have clearly communicated over the last three years as we work towards completing the cloud transition.

I think you have raised government TAM numbers, again, from $4 billion to $5 billion. I was wondering if you can give us a little bit more color on where the incremental upside comes from? And just in general, what are some of the major programs that you're targeting or states that you're trying to get in growth into that will bridge to this $5 billion TAM number?

Yes. The focus is on the delivery of government social services, which is significant. Approximately 90 million Americans receive some form of government assistance, such as food, rent, cash support, childcare, student loans, and unemployment aid. All these programs require income verification, employment checks, and often an incarceration check, which we can provide through our APRs data set. We're seeing rapid growth in this area because there is a strong demand for quick and efficient delivery of these services to those who are eligible. Our instant data capabilities provide a major advantage over manual processes, which often require beneficiaries to present proof of income. We can deliver this verification instantly, and our data is typically only one to two weeks old, reflecting payroll cycles. We operate on three levels: federal, state, and local. For instance, some verifications are handled federally, such as those for the Social Security Administration, which represents a significant contract for us. We've also extended our contract with CMS, which is federal but executed at the state level, along with the new USDA contract. Our engagement at the state level is more intricate, and there is considerable opportunity for penetration here. Notably, all 50 states are not currently utilizing Equifax, and we work with various state agencies that provide these services. We've increased our resources over the years at the state capital levels to facilitate deployment. We are particularly targeting major states like California, Texas, New York, and Florida, while also aiming to expand across all states. Looking ahead to 2024, 2025, and 2026, deepening our penetration in states will significantly contribute to our growth, and we see a strong value proposition in this. In many instances, data costs are subsidized by the federal government, similar to the social services. It’s crucial for us to align our technology with state processes to enhance the workflow at these agencies. We remain optimistic about this sector, which approached $0.5 billion by the end of last year, and we anticipate strong double-digit growth in 2024.

I think one of the reasons the TAM is growing as we continue to integrate the insights business into Workforce Solutions fully. We're able to now see there's incremental products that can serve portions of that government market that we couldn't serve before. So I think the part of the increase in the TAM in addition to what Mark described is the broadening of our product set because of the Insights acquisition. So we feel very good how that's going to continue to allow us to broaden that TAM even further over time as we generate new products to service government needs.

Got it. Super helpful. My second question is. I'm not sure if it's too early to talk about how you think about pricing for VantageScore 4.0 in the mortgage vertical. I think based on the FHA’s original timeline guidance; we should start transitioning towards that two-score system later this year. And I think pricing decision for VantageScore is being made at the bureau level. So just curious to hear how you're thinking about setting prices for VantageScore for mortgage?

Yes. I think as you know, there's two pieces to that potential change by the regulator that is still in a comment period. One is to add Vantage to every federally supported mortgage. That's going to be a good guide for Equifax when it happens going forward. And then second is the 3B requirement going to 2B. We've talked before that we expect on the second half of that mortgage originators to continue to pull the three credit files because there are meaningful differences between the three credit bureaus, three credit files. For example, there's 8.5 million consumers that are only in one of the three credit files in the United States. So the value of three is quite important. On the Vantage plus FICO, same thing. It’s still in a comment period. We haven’t put either of those into our framework for 2024 because we’re not sure they’re going to happen or what the impact would be. But you point out that if it’s mandatory to have a FICO and Vantage score, that’s a positive for our business to sell a second score in every mortgage. And no, we haven’t thought about pricing on it because it’s really unclear if it’s going to happen or when it will happen, if it does.

I wanted to start with a couple of clarifying questions. First, regarding the workforce issuance metric in the mortgage sector that you introduced last quarter, could you explain how you calculate that number? There is a lot of available data on issuance, so I'm looking for guidance on how to compare your figure to market data. My second question relates to the incremental margins in mortgage. Last year, the figure was around 80%, and I understand that there has been a mix impact, which I believe you previously mentioned is now at 65%. I'm trying to make sense of these numbers as well.

I'll address the second question first. Regarding gross margins, they should be considered as slightly higher than incremental margins. However, they're expected to be lower than the 80% discussed last year due to a significant price increase from one of our vendors. We do pass this increase onto our customers and apply a markup to maintain EBITDA margins, but we cannot mark it up enough to sustain gross margins. As a result, we will experience some negative impact on variable margins in the overall mortgage business.

Incremental mortgage margins are very appealing. We have tried to clarify our view on what constitutes normal mortgage volumes, which we see as being within the range of 2015 to 2019, compared to where we are today at 50% below that. There is significant upside potential in 2024, 2025, and 2026, and we aim to convey that by discussing the $1 billion revenue opportunity in the future. Regarding your question about inquiries, USIS inquiries differ from EWS inquiries; the former involves shoppers comparing two or three mortgage originators before closing with just one. This distinction is important. Last year, we chose to disclose this data. You mentioned market volume data; however, there is limited market volume data available, and what exists is generally outdated. There are forecasts that you might consider as data, but I view them strictly as forecasts. We have discussed the MBA's forecasts and predictions from others on potential improvements later in the year due to anticipated rate cuts that have yet to occur. We have consistently communicated our forecasts for mortgage volumes as they rise, having done so during previous declines and continuing to do so based on current trends. As these trends evolve, we will keep you informed. We aim to highlight the positive potential impact on both our top line and bottom line as mortgage volumes stabilize. We believe that over time, whether in 2024, 2025, or 2026, mortgage volumes will normalize; the only uncertainty lies in when the Fed will implement rate changes. We will remain open about our activity, as we observe changes daily. This is what we refer to when discussing trends. We are aware of the inquiries we received yesterday, last week, and the previous weeks, and we use this information to project future activity.

I was also interested in the origination side, but the answer might be similar there.

It's actually a little bit different. We don't receive actual mortgage originations until six months after they occur, and that's true for the industry as well. The mortgage closing process is complex, and it takes time for those mortgages to be recorded on the credit file, which is when we can see them. Any mortgage origination data is based on a lag. There are forecasts created by various people, but those are just estimates and not actual figures. We can't determine how many originations happened yesterday because that information isn't available. However, we are very transparent about the inquiries we see on a current basis.

I just want to thank you everybody for joining the call today. And do you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to myself or Sam. Otherwise, have a great day.