Keurig Dr Pepper Inc
Keurig Dr Pepper is a leading beverage company in North America, with a portfolio of more than 125 owned, licensed and partner brands and powerful distribution capabilities to provide a beverage for every need, anytime, anywhere. With annual revenue of approximately $15 billion, we hold leadership positions in beverage categories including soft drinks, coffee, tea, water, juice, and mixers, and have the #1 single serve coffee brewing system in the U.S. and Canada. Our innovative partnership model builds emerging growth platforms in categories such as premium coffee, energy, sports hydration, and ready-to-drink coffee. Our brands include Keurig ®, Dr Pepper ®, Canada Dry ®, Mott's ®, A&W ®, Snapple ®, Peñafiel ®, 7UP ®, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters®, Clamato ®, Core Hydration ® and The Original Donut Shop ®. Driven by a purpose to Drink Well. Do Good., our 28,000 employees aim to enhance the experience of every beverage occasion and to make a positive impact for people, communities, and the planet.
KDP's revenue grew at a 6.9% CAGR over the last 6 years.
Current Price
$29.09
-1.05%GoodMoat Value
$12.17
58.2% overvaluedKeurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) — Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Original transcript
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Keurig Dr Pepper's Earnings Call for the First Quarter of 2025. This conference call is being recorded, and there will be a question-and-answer session at the end of the call. I would now like to introduce Keurig Dr Pepper's Senior Vice President of Finance, Jane Gelfand. Ms. Gelfand, please go ahead.
Thank you, and hello, everyone. Earlier this morning, we issued two separate press releases detailing first quarter results and announcing the appointment of new independent directors to our Board of Directors. We will discuss these topics during this conference call and in the accompanying slide presentation that can be tracked in real time on the live webcast. Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that our remarks will include forward-looking statements, which reflect KDP's judgment, assumptions, and analysis only as of today. Our actual results may differ materially from current expectations based on a number of factors affecting KDP's business. Except as required by law, we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements discussed today. For more information, please refer to our earnings release and the risk factors discussed in our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q, which will be filed with the SEC later today. Consistent with previous quarters, we will be discussing our Q1 performance on a non-GAAP adjusted basis, which reflects constant currency growth rates and excludes items affecting comparability. Definitions and reconciliations toward the most directly comparable GAAP metrics are included in our earnings material. Here with us today to discuss our results are Keurig Dr Pepper’s Chief Executive Officer, Tim Cofer; and Chief Financial Officer and President, International, Sudhanshu Priyadarshi. I'll now turn it over to Tim.
Thanks, Jane, and good morning, everyone. Our first quarter results were strong. Net sales advanced more than 6% and EPS increased more than 10%. We believe KDP is well-positioned in today's fluid macro environment. The operating and regulatory backdrop demands a combination of organizational ballast and agility as a scaled beverage player that is also the industry challenger. KDP is fortunate to have both. Q1 served as a good demonstration. Our resilience was evident in the strong top and bottom-line results. While each of our segments faced different conditions in Q1, we executed well to deliver strong and steady enterprise-level performance. During the quarter, we also moved quickly to assess and react to trade policy changes. Looking out to the balance of the year, our outlook now incorporates our best estimate of tariff-related pressures and mitigations based on the policies in place today. As a result, we continue to expect that 2025 will be another solid year of growth, and we are reaffirming our full-year guidance. Let's now unpack the quarter's highlights and segment performance beyond the strong financial outcomes in Q1. There were several noteworthy achievements in the quarter also worth highlighting. These include market share gains across iconic liquid refreshment beverage brands like Dr Pepper and Canada Dry, as well as newer brands like Electrolit and C4. Accelerating price realization across each of our segments reflects actions to effectively manage inflation in 2025, a smooth start to the integration of Ghost Energy. We are hitting the ground running in establishing a true energy platform with a 6.5% market share position already, and momentum building. Strong operating discipline, particularly in overhead cost management and smart capital allocation, including the monetization of our very successful multi-year Vita Coco investment. Vita Coco has been a valued partner for the past 15 years, and we recently extended our distribution partnership to capture the significant growth opportunity ahead. At the segment level, U.S. Refreshment Beverages continued to outperform on the back of very strong CSD trends. U.S. Coffee experienced a softer start, as the category began to work through commodity-driven inflationary challenges, and international proved resilient against a dynamic macro backdrop. I'll now dive deeper into each of our segments. Let's start with U.S. Refreshment Beverages, which was the clear standout in the first quarter. Net sales grew 11%, driven by strength in our core CSD portfolio, as well as the initial contribution of our GHOST acquisition. Our CSDs outperformed in a healthy category. As consumer-obsessed brand builders, we delivered this result through a combination of impactful innovation, strong commercial execution, and full funnel marketing. Dr Pepper had another great quarter with sizable market share gains, including a meaningful contribution from our highly incremental Dr Pepper Blackberry launch in February. The new product, which pairs the iconic Dr Pepper flavor with the rich sweetness of Blackberry, has captured nearly a point of CSD share and is performing on par with our most successful innovations from recent years. The Dr Pepper franchise continues to gain distribution breadth and depth, thanks to innovation and zero format expansion, which remains a multi-year growth opportunity for this powerhouse brand. We also delivered healthy net sales growth in Canada Dry and 7UP due to attractive returns on recently stepped-up innovation, marketing support, and product refreshment, including our early 2025 launch of 7UP Tropical. More exciting activity for these and other CSD brands like A&W is forthcoming. Our energy portfolio was another area of strength in the quarter. Entering year three of our partnership, C4 maintained its momentum, driven by DSD execution to expand the brand's distribution points and grow display penetration. Our integration of GHOST kicked off well, as did the distribution transition in late Q1. As we assume full influence over the brand all the way to the shelf, we are beginning to execute against GHOST's significant growth opportunities. We are doing the same with emerging brands like female-forward Bloom Sparkling Energy, which quickly scaled to a half a share point in the category during Q1, and the recently launched mainstream-focused Black Rifle energy line. Now that our thoughtfully constructed energy portfolio is in place, we are confident in our right to win, and our team is eager to seize the opportunity. In sports hydration, another exciting emerging category for KDP. Our work with Electrolit is entering year two on a strong growth trajectory. In Q1, the brand enjoyed significant and accelerating share gains, which should sustain as we pursue distribution white space and new packaging and product forms. Alongside our partner Group OPIZZA, we are committed to building electrolyte into a national and mainstream player, which will be supported by a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility currently under construction in Texas. Overall, we are very pleased with our U.S. refreshment beverages performance. Our portfolio has momentum. We are executing at a high level, and we have strong commercial plans for the rest of 2025. In U.S. Coffee, Q1 was a challenging quarter with a 3.7% net sales decline and profit pressure. Though the single-serve categories transition in 2025 from volume-led to pricing-led growth requires some patience to navigate, our dual priorities are steadfast. First, mitigating record green coffee inflation, and second, fortifying our long-term growth model by addressing evolving consumer needs. During the first quarter, we took actions in support of both of these priorities. I'll begin with mitigating green coffee inflation. Given the magnitude of the pressure that we and the industry are facing, we implemented a price increase across our owned and licensed brands to start the year. These pricing actions appeared on shelf earlier than many peers, resulting in short-term volume and mix trade-offs in Q1. As already announced, industry pricing layers in over the coming months, we expect to see more typical price gaps among key single-serve brands and for the net impact of our actions to become more favorable looking out into the back half. We will continue to evaluate all available levers to offset inflation over the course of the year. These include potential additional pricing, more productivity savings, and a sharper focus on the highest returning products, channels, and households. This brings me to our second priority, fortifying our long-term growth model. We are going after premium cold and next-generation opportunities to drive Keurig’s future growth with Q1 progress across each dimension. We've been building a tier of premium and super-premium coffees anchored by brands like Lavazza, La Colombe, Philz, and others. These additions resonate with higher value consumers and drive positive mix, and we've proven we can strongly accelerate these brands' growth when part of our portfolio. As an example, Lavazza K-Cup pods saw over 30% growth in Q1 retail sales, demonstrating significantly enhanced momentum, just a couple of quarters after we assumed the brand license last year. Another major focus area is capturing more cold occasions through a variety of total coffee formats. In Q1, we introduced new flavors to expand on 2024's successful Refreshers platform. These products are proving highly incremental at key retailers. Our La Colombe ready-to-drink coffees also continued to scale nicely in the quarter, supporting the brand's transformation into a formidable challenger in this multi-billion-dollar beverage space. Our future coffee vision is also steadily progressing with behind-the-scenes work on the Keurig Alta system and plastic-free, aluminum-free K-Round pods. Over the last few months, we advanced in-home consumer testing of the new system, generating valuable insights that we will apply as we expand the trial to even more households, as well as plan for future commercialization. These examples illustrate how we are balancing our U.S. Coffee activities this year between inflation mitigation and long-term growth initiatives. Though segment performance is likely to remain subdued in 2025, we are laying the groundwork for stronger and more multifaceted growth in the years ahead. Moving to international, Q1 sales grew in the mid-single digits. We're pleased with KDP's relative trends across our primary countries and will continue to lean in to bolster our momentum as the year progresses. In Q1, we saw strong growth in liquid refreshment beverages, driven by Penafiel and our CSD portfolio, in particular Dr Pepper and Crush. Inflation-related pricing also started to flow through late in the quarter and supported top-line gains across the international portfolio. We expect segment growth to accelerate over the balance of 2025, reflecting increased price realization and the activation of exciting commercial plans highlighting our key international brands, many of which enjoy strong local identities. To wrap up, our dawn-to-dusk beverage portfolio is delivering strong enterprise results while continuing to evolve towards faster-growing spaces. Simultaneously, we are capably managing through changing economic conditions and mitigating associated risks. As we move through the year, we will remain flexible and proactive as we work towards delivering on our 2025 financial commitments and advancing our long-term strategic priorities. I'll now turn the call to Sudhanshu and will return at the end with some closing thoughts.
Thanks, Tim. And good morning, everyone. We had a strong start to 2025. Our business has momentum, we are executing well, and we are operating with discipline and agility. Together, these factors give us confidence in our ability to continue to deliver solid results over the balance of the year. First quarter net sales grew 6.4% in constant currency. Our top line was driven by strong double-digit gains in U.S. refreshing beverages and healthy trends in international, which more than offset a challenging quarter for U.S. coffee. On a consolidated basis, the group was supported by multiple net sales drivers. Net price realization increased 2.8%, sequentially strengthening across each of our segments. This primarily reflected actions taken in response to inflation as well as some targeted trade spend refinements. Volume mix advanced 3.6% in the quarter, which included solid base business growth, particularly in liquid refreshment beverages. The addition of cost to the KDP portfolio also contributed 2.9 percentage points to the top line. Gross margin contracted 170 basis points versus the prior year. We expected this pressure given a difficult comparison and escalating inflation. Pricing and productivity should build in the coming quarters, and our laps become easier, which will help us better manage expected headwinds. SG&A leveraged 90 basis points. Disciplined expense management is an ongoing focus but is taking on even greater importance in today's less certain economic environment. We are constructively cushioning our processes streamlining where it makes sense and arriving at more efficient ways of working. These efforts will continue to bear fruit over the coming quarters driving operating leverage as we grow. In total, operating income increased 3.9%. This translated to 10.5% EPS growth, which was enhanced by below-the-line leverage, including a realized gain on the sale of our minority stake in Vita Coco. This transaction is testament to the merits of our flexible capital allocation approach, which I will discuss in more detail shortly. Moving to the segments. U.S. refreshment beverages posted another set of impressive quarterly results. Net sales growth accelerated to 11%. Volume mix was the primary driver, increasing 8%, including a 4.8 percentage point contribution from GHOST. Base business momentum was also strong, driven by CSDs and key partnerships. Net price realization contributed 3 points to segment net sales, primarily reflecting CSD pricing. Segment operating income grew 8.7%, as net sales momentum and productivity savings more than offset inflation. This growth also came despite a sizable net headwind from lapping a larger C4 performance incentive in the year-ago period. In the U.S. Coffee segment, net sales declined 3.7% in the first quarter. As expected, net price realization inflected positively, contributing 1.5 points of growth, as pricing actions on our owned and licensed brands began to flow through. However, this was more than offset by a 5.2% decline in volume mix. Part of the pressure reflected industry pricing layering in at different rates across the single-serve category, which contributed to short-term volume and mix impacts. We also saw some retailers more closely managing trade levels as prices increased. Segment operating income declined 12.5%. In the first quarter, net price realization and productivity proved insufficient to fully cover green coffee inflation and lower volume mix. We expect both revenue and operating income pressure to ease in the back half, as the balance between pricing, productivity, and inflation improves and as mix effects normalize. In international, net sales grew 5.4% with growth across regions and categories. Growth was led by favorable net price realization of 4.1%. Volume mix was also up 1.3%, driven by particular strength in liquid refreshment beverages in both Canada and Mexico. Segment operating income declined 4.6%. Similar to last quarter, this reflected the phasing of DSD investments in Mexico, as well as an imbalance between pricing, productivity, and inflation. Both factors were primarily a function of timing. For the full year, our International segment should remain a strong top and bottom line growth contributor. Moving to cash flow and capital allocation. We generated $102 million in free cash flow in the first quarter. Notably, this result included the known impact from a one-time $225 million GHOST distribution transition payment. So, on an underlying basis, our performance was even stronger. Our business model remains highly cash generative and we continue to expect a healthy free cash flow year in 2025. Our dynamic capital allocation strategy was on display during the first quarter, as we monetized our multi-year equity stake in Vita Coco. This was a clear demonstration of the mutual value that our partnership model creates. Since we began working with Vita Coco, we have helped to establish the brand as the clear leader in the vibrant coconut water category. The partnership has also generated attractive financial returns for KDP, including the realized gain in the first quarter from the sale of our minority investment in the company. Shifting now to our 2025 guidance. Our constant currency outlook is unchanged. We expect mid-single digit net sales growth with a bias towards the high end of the range and high single-digit earnings per share growth. Based on current rates, we now anticipate that FX will represent approximately a 1 percentage point top and bottom line headwind for the full year. Our below-the-line assumptions remain the same as our prior guidance. Specifically, we expect interest expense in a $680 million to $700 million range, an effective tax rate of approximately 22% to 23%, and approximately $1.37 billion diluted weighted average shares outstanding. Based on what we know today, anticipated tariff impacts in 2025 appear manageable relative to our guidance. While we are not immune to the effects of these tariffs, multiple counterbalances should keep us on track to deliver the year. These include a series of mitigation steps that we are pursuing, flexibility from first-quarter over delivery, and other in-year opportunities. Having said that, we recognize that some external elements, like future trade policy and potential consumer response are outside of our control. As a result, we will need to remain agile as we seek to deliver responsible and sustainable outcomes for KDP and for our consumers. In closing, we are pleased with the business momentum and strong execution that powered our first quarter results. With our singular focus on beverages, scaled North American operations, and challenge mindset, KDP is well-suited to navigate today's very dynamic economic landscape while delivering consistently. With that, I will turn the call back to Tim for closing remarks.
Thank you, Sudhanshu. This morning, we also highlighted the continued evolution of KDP's Board of Directors to help steward our next stage of growth. First, following a rigorous and extensive recruitment process, we appointed two new independent directors, Mike Vandeven and Lawson Whiting. These highly qualified, seasoned executives will bring valuable and complementary perspectives to our board. Second, Bob Gamgort's role is transitioning from Executive Chairman to non-executive Chairman of the Board, another natural next step in our governance. Having joined KDP more than 18 months ago and assuming the CEO role a year ago, I can say with confidence that KDP has entered an exciting new chapter in our time as a public company. Our Board is refreshed and energized, as is our executive leadership team. Together, we look forward to executing on the compelling growth and value creation agenda ahead. With that, we're now happy to take your questions.
Operator
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. So, first, just a clarification on the fiscal '25 guidance. There's obviously a lot of moving pieces. Just can you discuss high-level, your level of confidence in maintaining the local FX guidance in 2025? How much flex do you think you have to manage through a difficult environment that's caused most of your peers to have lower guidance? Sudhanshu, the comments on tariffs were helpful. Can you give us a bit more detail on your exposure there and the potential offsets in the guidance? And then, just separately, we've seen a very healthy level of organic sales growth in U.S. Refreshment in the last couple of quarters, driven by strong pricing as well as market share gains for your portfolio. Can you just discuss the sustainability of those drivers going forward, particularly in the context of a weaker consumer environment? A, on pricing, what are you seeing competitively, the willingness of retailers and consumers to stomach the additional pricing? And then B, just level of confidence that the market share gains will continue, particularly on the CSD side? Thanks.
Good morning, Dara. So, let me talk to you about the, I'm assuming you meant EPS guidance. So, our philosophy is to issue a balanced guidance that includes both risk and opportunities. But based on what we see today, we continue to expect high single-digit constant currency EPS growth. The primary drivers in that guidance, we're assuming good profit flow through from top line momentum in U.S. Refreshment Beverages and international, plus it's also including GHOST accretion as distribution is building and strong productivity and disciplined expense management, which will support continued healthy brand investment levels. As you know, there are incremental pressure points that have emerged even since February. Current tariffs now represent an additional headwind versus the initial plan, slower than expected start in U.S. Coffee with improvement expected in the second half. We believe we have identified these appropriate steps to offset these impacts. And now, we just have to execute. This includes pushing hard on cost savings, evaluating additional pricing and mix management, and pursuing alternate sourcing. Our Q1 EPS upsides also provide us some flexibility to absorb headwinds over the balance of the year. But as you said, it remains fluid in movement, future trade policy, and consumer health are watch points. These drive a wider range of outcome that is not always predictable. Having said that, we feel good about our ability to influence the factors within our control in 2025, which is why we have reaffirmed our outlook today.
Yes. And Dara, I'll take the question on U.S. refreshment beverage. And as I said in my commentary, I mean, no doubt, we're pleased with the performance that we saw in the category. And it starts with, obviously, CSDs. The category itself continues to be very healthy. I think there is strong consumer value and appeal in that category overall, and continued price and mix opportunity for us. Within a healthy category, KDP is outperforming. I mentioned Dr Pepper, which remains very strong. We're very happy with the Blackberry launch, continued expansion of the zero platform, and distribution gains. Canada Dry gained share in the quarter, 7UP is back to share growth, given a brand refresh and launch of Tropical. So CSDs are really firing on all cylinders for us. Second, in energy, we had a strong quarter of energy. I think our portfolio of energy brands is starting to show. C4 has maintained momentum as it enters year 3, and we expect continued growth there. GHOST had a good start in Q1. The distributions transitioned over to us, and you saw strong growth there. Bloom is scaling very nicely and quickly in this female-forward subsegment. Our sports hydration, Electrolit, is very pleasing, growing strong double digits. We expect robust growth on the year for Electrolit. We've just lapped our initial introduction of Electrolit into the portfolio. Overall, I think as you look at U.S. refreshment beverages, it was a great quarter, with robust innovation, marketing, and strong DSD activation. We continue to be bullish on the year. As you spoke specifically at the tail end of your question on pricing in U.S. refreshment beverages, we see our growth largely driven by base business volume and mix gains and obviously the contribution from GHOST. Pricing will be a contributor this year, primarily in CSDs. We announced our CSD price increase that took effect at the beginning of the year, and that's filtering through the P&L. And I think, as I said earlier, it's clear from the overall category resilience that consumers continue to see great value in the CSD category relative to LRBs. Now that tariffs are in the picture, it does introduce another dimension that we'll need to think through. CSDs, like our other categories, are at least in part reliant on some aspects of a global supply chain. And so, as that develops, we'll consider all potential mitigations, which could include additional pricing actions late in the year to protect our long-term ability to invest and keep this business as healthy as we've seen it in Q1.
Great. I wanted to talk a little bit about coffee and elasticity. I know, Tim, you mentioned in your prepared remarks some dynamics around the timing of when the various players in the category put through pricing. But you have spoken in the past about needing to manage affordability broadly. But if we're thinking about a kind of potentially constrained or already seeing a constrained consumer environment, where you stand on some of that messaging to really promote the idea of at-home coffee being an affordable solution, et cetera, et cetera? And just kind of how you're thinking about elasticity as the industry kind of gets more coordinated, if you will, on pricing for the green coffee inflation? Thanks.
Absolutely, Lauren. So, no doubt in this inflationary environment that we find ourselves in '25. As I said, we've got two main priorities on the coffee business this year. The first is mitigating that green coffee inflation, including now tariff-related impacts. And the second is making sure we are playing the long game and we're advancing long-term initiatives, specifically for us. That means cold, that means premium and next-generation propositions. We implemented a pod price increase in January on our owned and licensed portfolio, and as we look at the Q1 marketplace dynamics, the data indicates that competitor pricing layered in at different rates. At a category level, the elasticity is certainly manageable and not particularly surprising. But the slower-than-expected pacing across competitive dynamics did weigh on our volume and mix performance in Q1. The price gaps weren't normal or consistent with historical norms. So, we experienced some pressure, and I'd expect those pressure points will persist likely into Q2. But we do expect it to ease looking into the second half, and we're already seeing evidence that competitive pricing is starting to accelerate across the category, especially if you look at the last few weeks of data. So, in the guidance that Sudhanshu and I provided, we've calibrated for that reality, and we can stay patient as this plays out. As you go into the back half, we will consider additional inflation mitigation steps in response to both green coffee and tariffs. Additional pricing could be one of the levers, but there are others as well: productivity, mix, and a broader cost base. Regarding affordability, particularly in this macro environment, consumer affordability is critical, and really demonstrating value to consumers is important. We've focused on two areas: ensuring we've got the right price pack options and emphasizing the relative value of our proposition. We believe this can play well, and even on the premium end, you can have quality at a fraction of the coffee shop alternative price point. That is certainly something we will leverage in this inflationary environment.
Thanks, good morning, everyone. Just two quick ones for me. Just, Tim, I'd love your perspective on activity amongst Hispanic Latino consumers here in the U.S. I mean, obviously, it's a lot of immigration news and a lot of suppression, I think, of activity, but it's been pretty volatile. We're hearing in April, for instance, very high Hispanic populated areas and brands leveraged to those areas are doing much better. So just your thoughts on what you're seeing in the market and how you think this will play forward. And then just one question on SNAP, given all these state-level initiatives, what exactly is the industry's response or can the industry's response be from a legal perspective just given that there's a lot of arguments to be made against actually banning soda from SNAP, for instance, juice drinks, some of them have more sugar than CSDs just as an example. So, I'd just love your thoughts on that.
Yes, Nik. So, we'll start with Hispanic. As you well know, the Hispanic consumer is the second largest demographic group here in the U.S. and accounts for a meaningful percentage of our business and broader CPG purchases. We have many great brands that appeal to Hispanic consumers. Our exposure to this group is in line with our peers and the overall category dynamic. Over the last couple of months, our data certainly aligns with yours in terms of seeing softening trends among Hispanic consumers relative to the broader population. We are witnessing that manifesting both in terms of fewer trips and spend per trip. Having said all that, I would characterize it as a watch point that's contributing to the overall dampened consumer sentiment you're seeing in the U.S. However, it has not yet been sufficient to move the needle on our enterprise trends, which is evident in the total enterprise results we printed for Q1. Regarding your second question on SNAP, I'd start with a couple of facts. Grocery bill receipts of SNAP recipients and non-SNAP households are strikingly consistent, and you see beverages playing an equally permanent role in both sets of households. SNAP recipients fund part of their grocery bill through Snap subsidies and part with their own money. Should there be a change in SNAP, you could see a shift of sorts from left pocket to right pocket. But we do not expect significant changes to our categories. As an industry, we advocate for consumers' freedom of choice and dignity in providing them the ability to buy the food and beverage brands they choose, while maintaining transparency in ingredients. The beverage industry has successfully reduced total caloric load in the U.S., with calories from beverages down 40% since 2000, and 60% of our beverage portfolio are lower or no-calorie and zero-sugar products. We will continue to work with the administration and our industry colleagues to advocate for consumers. KDP's exposure on this would be similar to our peers.
Hi, good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask about free cash flow. So, obviously, it was a noisy quarter with GHOST, but we're getting to this point where free cash flow is going to be less impacted by the payables program. Obviously, we've got this hit in Q1. You've talked about capital allocation in the quarter, or as a general concept today. Can you help us frame how you view your free cash flow development as we go through this year and into 2026, and perhaps comment on how we should be thinking about free cash flow conversion?
Good morning, Chris. As you know, cash generation is a hallmark of KDP. As you said, we deliberately took a step back over the last couple of years. Now, we are on a clear path of returning to a structured conversion level. You can see our free cash flow profile is accelerating, and we made significant progress in 2024. We plan to have further improvement in 2025. Quarterly cash flow can be lumpy. We had a good start in Q1, and it was up year-over-year, even with the high one-time gross distribution termination fee. In the long run, we are on track to restore business to the long-term target conversion level over the next couple of years. Our goal remains, as I've said before, to return to the conversion levels that are commensurate with our largest peers. It will take us a couple of years, but you will see 2025 more second-half weighted, and it should be better than 2024, especially after you take into account the $225 million distribution payment. Regarding capital allocation, we are highly focused on deploying the cash we generate in a smart, disciplined, and dynamic way. Our long-term capital allocation priorities are unchanged: internal investments, partnership M&A, steady dividend growth, and opportunistic share repurchase, aiming to keep our leverage below 2.5 times. In the current environment, deleveraging is the priority, but we'll continue to consider opportunities to invest in growing the business while remaining disciplined on our capital returns.
I wanted to ask about GHOST. While performance for the brand was very strong, the expectation was that the contribution would be the smallest in Q1 and then build from here. Is that still the right expectation as we think about the model moving forward? And then a lot of discussion on moderating category growth across many of your categories. But it seems that energy drinks have gone the other direction year-to-date. I'd like your thoughts on what you think is driving the improvement and whether you anticipate growth to kind of continue to accelerate, particularly as the industry starts to cycle easy comparisons in the summer here? Thanks.
Yes, Peter. Let's address both parts of your question. It's been a fast start out of the gate in Q1 for us on our energy platform broadly. We are excited to see our portfolio of brands winning and showing up as anticipated in terms of being very complementary and incremental to one another. To your second question, energy is one of the fastest-growing categories within liquid refreshment beverages. You saw some softness last summer, but it has picked up and year-to-date retail sales are in the high single digits. We look at scanner data weekly and have seen robust growth the last 7 to 8 weeks in a row in double digits. So we're feeling good about the category and our portfolio momentum. Regarding GHOST, we have strong momentum and are pleased with our Q1 performance, achieving double-digit growth at the retail level. We have a great working relationship with the GHOST team, aligned on our vision, with strong coordination and complementing cultures. We are well into transitioning distribution and setting our joint commercial plans, which are going smoothly. Now that we have greater control over the brand, we are executing against GHOST's significant growth opportunities. Thus, we do believe we will continue to build momentum in the balance of the year.
Hey, good morning. It's Pete Galbo. Can you hear me?
Hey, Pete. We hear you.
Hey, guys. How are you? Thanks for taking the question. Just maybe one clarification and then one kind of broader question. But Sudhanshu, maybe you can just help us a bit more. I think it was about $0.04 of upside on the quarter relative to consensus. Obviously, you're not changing the guide and you've outlined that related to tariffs and maybe the consumer environment. But maybe you can just help us a little bit with the phasing and how you're thinking about the build of EPS over the rest of the year from a cadence perspective?
So, Pete, the beat in Q1 was driven partially by the Vita Coco sale. We sold the Vita Coco stake with a very successful stake, and we had a realized gain of close to $0.015. This gives us flexibility for the balance of the year to manage consumer headwinds and tariffs. We're reaffirming our guidance, which includes mid-single-digit sales and the EPS mid-single-digit growth. Q1 was a double-digit growth. The below-the-line with the Vita Coco sale did help. I don't want to guide by quarter, but you can think about the full year being adjusted for EPS, and Q1 is giving us flexibility to manage through all the headwinds.
Hey, guys. Good morning. It's bring your kid to work day at Jefferies. So, I'm going to have my son, Cameron, ask a question. Longwood top for Blackberry is already 1% market share and was only lost in February. How big of a contributor will it be for the year? You guys get that?
Wow, fantastic. I think it's my first ever question from a young person, and I appreciate it, Cameron. And I hope Cameron is a big fan of Dr Pepper Blackberry. Indeed, to his question, we're really pleased with brand Dr Pepper and the results in Q1. This is, as you know, the number two CSD brand by volume now for two straight years and it's our, we are on track for our eighth consecutive year of market share growth. We think we have continued runway for growth through our strategy of bringing great flavors like Dr Pepper Blackberry into the portfolio. We think we can grow through closing distribution gaps, and we can also grow through the Zero platform, which continues to grow at a double-digit rate. Specifically, to Cameron's question on Dr Pepper Blackberry, it's on par already with some of the strongest innovations over the last few years. We launched this one new this year across formats and varieties, which means not only bottles and cans, but also in fountain and frozen. And we're just 8 weeks into the launch and have achieved nearly 1 point of market share. You'll see us supporting it through full-funnel marketing activation across different digital, social, and linear channels. I think you'll see continued strength of Dr Pepper year to go. Thanks, Cameron.
Good morning, everyone. I was wondering if you can provide a little bit more color on kind of the cadence of coffee going forward. I know you mentioned there were puts and takes in Q1, and you're expecting some sequential improvement, but maybe some direction on the improvement there? And then specifically on the tariff side, still in coffee, can you remind us of the implication on both the brewers and the raw material impact, how you're planning to mitigate it? Thank you.
I'm assuming you meant operating income. We had a soft Q1 operating income, and we anticipated a muted start to the year, but it was worse than expected in quarter 1. Tim gave the reasons, which were mainly driven by the timing of industry pricing phasing into the market was slower than anticipated. We continue to think that 2025 will have sales and operating income pressure in U.S. coffee relative to our initial planning strength. We have tempered our segment outlook to reflect two factors: first, what we saw in Q1, which will likely continue, and second, the incremental impact of tariffs that are currently in place. This applies to green coffee and also brewers. We've announced a grower price increase in the market, and we're trying to manage profit dollars effectively for the year. We feel that whatever coffee does this year, it will continue to be subdued. We feel good about our full-year guidance for sales and overall enterprise level.
Thanks so much, Drew, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on a busy morning. The IR team is here all day to answer any follow-ups you may have, and we appreciate the interest. Thank you.
Operator
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