PulteGroup Inc (PHM) — Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning. And thank you for joining today’s call to discuss PulteGroup’s exceptional second quarter operating and financial results. Along with affirming the ongoing desire for home ownership and the strength of overall buyer demand, our second quarter numbers demonstrate the strategic value of PulteGroup's balanced and disciplined approach to the business. Joining me on today's call to discuss our Q2 results, are Ryan Marshall, President and CEO; Pablo Shaughnessy, Executive Vice President and CFO; Jim Ossowski, Senior VP of Finance. A copy of our earnings release and this morning’s presentation slides have been posted to our corporate website at pultegroup.com. We will post an audio replay of this call later today. I want to inform everyone on today's call that today's discussion includes forward-looking statements about the company's expected future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments. The most significant risk factors that could affect future results are summarized as part of today's earnings release within the accompanying presentation slides. These risk factors and other key information are detailed in our SEC filings, including our annual and quarterly reports. Let me turn the call over to Ryan Marshall. Ryan?

Thanks, Jim. Good morning. As you read in this morning's press release, Q2 was an outstanding quarter for PulteGroup, as we posted strong financial results throughout our P&L, balance sheet and cash flow statement. In fact, our second quarter revenues, gross and operating margins and net income were at or approaching all-time highs for our second quarter. Our record financial performance in turn drove strong cash flows that helped to raise our cash position to $1.8 billion, while dropping our net debt to capital ratio to almost zero. I am really proud of our homebuilding and financial services teams for delivering these great results, which are even more impressive given the variable market conditions we've operated in for the past 12 months. Within these complicated market dynamics, I believe PulteGroup's operating and financial success reflects the balanced and disciplined approach we take in running our homebuilding business. We continue to successfully implement both a build-to-order model that serves our move-up and active adult buyers, in combination with a spec-based model primarily within our first-time buyer communities. Our spec production is most heavily weighted toward our Centex branded communities, which operate under a managed spec production model. In other words, homes are started as spec, and we have aligned our starts cadence with our sales pace. Given Centex is focused on serving the needs of first-time buyers, our long-term plan is to maintain a spec build model in these communities. By being more balanced across build-to-order and spec production, we maintain a more consistent cadence of home starts, meet buyer demand more effectively, and we achieve the critical objective of turning our assets in support of higher returns. You can see this practical application of this managed approach in our Q2 numbers, as specs total 36% of units under production at quarter end. Of these units, we averaged just over one finished spec per community, which is in line with our stated goal. Along with being balanced between our build-to-order and spec production, we were appropriately diversified across all the buyer groups consistent with our long-term goal of having 40% first-time, 35% move-up, and 25% active adult. Why is this important? The different financial profiles associated with each buyer group can mean different responses to changing market dynamics, such as today's rising rate environment, which may hinder first-time buyers, but be less of a headwind among active adult consumers. Being balanced across build-to-order, spec, and buyer groups is also an important underpinning to the extremely high gross margins we've been able to maintain. More directly, we have enough production to meet buyer demand, but not so much that we are no longer selling from a position of strength. I think we've achieved the right mix as we increased orders and closings, all while two-thirds of our divisions are still able to raise prices in the quarter. Along these same lines, we continue to see pricing opportunities within our core build-to-order business that primarily serves our move-up and active adult buyers. In our most recent quarter, options in-law premiums exceeded $100,000 per home. These are high-margin dollars that are not as prevalent among first-time buyers and certainly were an important driver of the strong 29.6% gross margin we reported in Q2. When the market started slowing in 2022, I said that we couldn't be margin proud, but rather we had to find price and turn our assets, delivering 24% growth in Q2 orders. And as Bob will detail, guiding the margins of 29% or better for the remainder of the year, we are achieving both high margins and high asset turns, which drove our 32% return on equity. Beyond the company's specific benefits we're realizing from how we run our business, we appreciate the favorable supply and demand dynamics resulting from the limited stock of existing houses available for sale. National Association of Realtors data for June showed seasonally adjusted existing home sales of 4.2 million, which is down a staggering 1 million homes from June of last year. As has been well reported, there are millions of existing homeowners who are sitting on low-rate mortgages established before the most recent cycle of Fed rate hikes. I recently saw an FHA graph that showed that more than 50% of current mortgage holders have a rate below 4%. I haven't seen any rate forecasts that show the country getting back to 4% mortgages anytime soon. So it's likely that existing homes remain in short supply for the foreseeable future. FHA data, along with mortgage rate forecasts suggests that there may be an extended period during which mortgage rates stay above 5%, which likely prevents an oversupply of existing homes being released into the market. Through the first six months of 2023, we generated $1.3 billion of net income and $1.5 billion of cash flow from operations. As a result, we increased our cash position by almost $700 million, while returning almost $500 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. I think these numbers clearly demonstrate the powerful results our company is delivering. With a backlog of $8.2 billion worth of homes to be built, improving cycle times and a solid land supply, we are well-positioned to deliver even stronger performance over the remainder of 2023. Now let me turn the call over to Bob for a detailed review of the quarter. Bob?

Thanks, Ryan and good morning. Our second quarter numbers speak for themselves in terms of demonstrating the strength of our operations and in turn, overall housing demand, so I'll just dive right in. Our second quarter wholesale revenues totaled $4.1 billion, an increase of 8% over last year. Higher revenues for the quarter were driven by a 5% increase in closings to 7,518 homes, in combination with a 3% increase in average sales price to $540,000. Our ability to meet stronger demand in the period with available spec inventory allowed us to slightly exceed our prior closing guidance. For the quarter, our mix of closings was comprised of 41% first-time buyers, 34% move-up buyers, and 25% active adult buyers. The breakdown of our business remains in line with our stated targets of 40% first-time, 35% move-up, and 25% active adult. In the second quarter of last year, our closing mix was 36% first-time, 38% move-up, and 26% active adult. Our net new orders in the second quarter increased 24% over last year to 7,947 homes. The double-digit increase in our orders benefited from the overall strength of market demand in the period along with our ability to capture this demand through a 14% increase in our average community count to 903 neighborhoods. The strength of consumer demand is also evident in our cancellation rate. Cancellations as a percentage of beginning period backlog was 9% in this quarter, which is down almost 350 basis points on a sequential basis from the first quarter. The 24% increase in our second quarter net new orders reflects an increase in our absorption pace of 2.9 homes per month, up from 2.7 homes per month last year and resulted in higher net new orders across all buyer groups. In the period, net new orders from first-time buyers increased 28% over the prior year to 3,150 homes. Orders for move-up buyers increased 33% to 2,897 homes, and orders from active adult buyers increased 7% to 1,900 homes. The year-over-year increase in first-time buyer orders shows that our homes continue to offer a compelling value and meet the affordability requirements of this buyer group. At the same time, our higher net new orders in move-up and active adult buyers is a positive development and test to the broad mix strength of housing demand. Consistent with our prior guidance, we expect year-over-year community count growth of 5% to 10% in the third and fourth quarters, each month compared to the comparable prior year period. Our backlog at the end of the second quarter was 13,588 homes with a value of $8.2 billion. In the second quarter of last year, our backlog stood at 19,176 homes, valued at a record peak of $11.6 billion. We ended the second quarter with a total of 16,740 homes under construction, of which approximately 6,000 or 36% were spec. We continue to closely manage spec production as total specs under construction at quarter end were down 11% from last year. Finished specs are also consistent with our historical carry rate as we ended the quarter with about one finished spec per community. In the second quarter, we started approximately 7,400 homes, which is up 41% compared to the first quarter of this year. Given the strength of PulteGroup's year intake orders and deliveries coupled with the status of our backlog and production universe, we're establishing a full-year 2023 delivery target of 29,500 homes. Of this total, we would expect to deliver between 7,000 and 7,400 homes in the third quarter. Our third quarter and full-year delivery targets are benefiting from improved home construction cycle times, as our operations are realizing meaningful improvements in cycle times of homes they are starting today. Based on the mix of backlog homes we expect to deliver in the third and fourth quarters coupled with anticipated spec closings, we are projecting in those periods, we expect the average sales price on third and fourth quarter closings to be approximately $540,000. Turning to margins, our reported gross margin in the second quarter was 29.6%. The improvement in our margins as compared to our previous guidance was due to improving pricing on spec sales and increased closings from our higher-margin markets. In addition, as we discussed in our prior earnings call, our aggregate gross margins are benefiting from our move-up and active adult business, where profitability is holding up better. Based on current market dynamics, we expect to maintain the strong margin position throughout the remainder of '23 and expect our gross margin to be in the range of 29.0% to 29.5% in both the third and fourth quarters of this year. As we experienced for the second quarter, the actual mix of deliveries, both in terms of geography and buyer groups may impact our reported numbers. Our reported SG&A expense in the second quarter was $315 million, or 7.8% of home sale revenues, and included a $65 million pretax insurance benefit recorded in the period. In the second quarter of last year, our SG&A expense was $351 million or 9.3% of home sale revenues. Based on our delivery targets for the remainder of the year, we expect SG&A expense to be in the range of 9.0% to 9.5% of home sale revenues in the third quarter and in the range of 8% to 8.5% of home sale revenues in the fourth quarter. Second quarter pretax income generated by our financial services operations increased 16% over last year to $46 million. Pricing conditions remain highly competitive in the mortgage industry, but quarterly earnings benefited from improved profitability within our title and insurance operations. Capture rate in the second quarter improved to 80% compared with 78% last year. Our reported tax expense in the second quarter was $233 million for an effective tax rate of 24.4%. We expect our tax rate for the remainder of '23 to be 24.5%. On the bottom line, our reported second quarter net income was a record $740 million or $3.21 per share. This was up from last year's reported net income of $652 million or $2.73 per share. Capitalizing on our outstanding financial results and resulting cash flows, we’ve repurchased 3.7 million common shares in the quarter at a cost of $250 million, at an average price of $68.31 per share. Through the first six months of '23, we have used $400 million to repurchase 6.4 million shares or 2.8% of our common shares outstanding. We also invested $370 million in land acquisition and $523 million in related development during the quarter. In total, our land sale in the period was $893 million, which is down from $1.1 billion through the second quarter of last year. On a year-to-date basis, this year, we have invested $1.8 billion in land acquisition development, which keeps us on track to invest between $3.5 billion and $4 billion for the full year. At the end of the second quarter, we had 214,000 lots under control, of which 51% were held via option. The total number of lots we control and the percentage of lots we controlled via option both increased from Q1 of this year as we are working to rebuild our option lot supply after exiting positions in the back half of 2022. We also ended the second quarter with $1.8 billion of cash and a gross debt-to-capital ratio of 17.3%. Given our large cash position, our net debt-to-capital ratio is now below 3%. Looking briefly at our full-year results, on a year-to-date basis, we have generated net income of $1.3 billion, drove the book value of our stock by 12%, and returned $472 million to shareholders. At the same time, our financial performance has permitted us to reduce our financial leverage to historic lows, and we have generated a return on equity for the trailing 12 months of 32%. Thank you, and I'll turn the call back to Ryan for some final comments.

Thanks, Bob. As we've commented, homebuyer demand in the second quarter was strong and continued to exceed the expectations we had coming into the year. In the overwhelming majority of our markets, local pricing dynamics are stable to positive, and we continue to find opportunities to modestly increase net pricing in many of our communities. Further, at an absorption pace of 2.9 homes per month for the period, sales pace for the second quarter was above last year and generally above our pre-COVID averages. Demand in the second quarter was fairly consistent from month to month. And as you would anticipate, with a 24% increase in orders, we generally saw positive demand across our markets, which has continued into the month of July. That being said, on a relative basis, there are communities in our Western markets where we are still having to adjust pricing and/or incentives to entice buyers into our communities and ensure we continue to turn our assets. Given the higher interest rate environment, one of the changes we have seen is the slight increase in the number of cash buyers, particularly among our active adult customers. As this buyer group moves into our plans for retirement, they are making the decision to carry less mortgage debt given today's higher rates. At the other end of the price spectrum, final purchase decisions among first-time buyers are also being impacted by higher rates. As data suggests, some first-time buyers are opting to go with less square footage or fewer options and upgrades as buyers need to purchase a home in today's dynamic market environment is why our ability to offer a significant mortgage incentive nationally is such an effective sales tool. With that said, our first-time buyers remain financially resilient as personal savings remain the primary source of down payment. At the same time, we continue to see millennials receiving support from parents if they need help making the move into homeownership. One final note as to buyer sentiment, recent feedback from our first-time buyers indicates that an overwhelming majority bought a new construction Pulte home rather than an existing home because they felt it offered the best overall value. We've been extremely thoughtful about the home designs we are putting on the ground and the incentives we are offering to help ensure we are offering a compelling value to our customers. These comments in combination with our 28% increase in second quarter orders within the first-time buyer group indicate our efforts are meeting with success. In closing, I want to thank the entire PulteGroup team for their efforts in delivering such outstanding operating and financial results. Beyond the numbers we show in our financial statements, we continue to provide exceptional homes and home buying experiences to our customers. I will now turn the call back to Jim.

Thanks, Ryan. We're now prepared to open the call for questions. So we can get to as many questions as possible during the time remaining. We ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Thank you. And I'll now ask Abby to explain the process and open the call for questions.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for answering my questions. My first question is about the gross margins of 29% to 29.5% that you expect in the third and fourth quarters, which are clearly higher than our forecasts. I'm curious if there are any unusual items to consider. It seems like the mix will be a positive factor. What do you believe is a sustainable margin rate? Are we currently at that level? Is this sustainable, and if not, how quickly do you anticipate returning to a more normalized rate?

John, good morning. It's Ryan. Thanks for the question. We're really pleased with how all of our consumer groups have been performing and certainly, how we saw the strength of sign-ups by consumer group in the most recent quarter. The mix of business, I think, is very consistent with what you've seen from us over the past 12 months. And as we mentioned in some of our prepared remarks, it's totally in line with kind of our stated goals. So really nothing there that I would highlight of note. And then in terms of kind of the forward kind of margin profile, we've given both a guide for Q3 and Q4, which I think what you want to read into that is that's where we see the business for the balance of the year, we're clearly not giving anything kind of beyond that at this point.

Okay. That's helpful. And maybe just one more question on margin. I think last quarter, you guys talked about the spread between active adult, move-up, and entry-level sort of reverting back to historical norms, and I think that was a quick move-in portion kind of going back a little bit on the lower end. Given where housing demand is today and the desire for many folks to move in quickly, are you expecting that sort of quick move-in portion to actually trend higher again?

Yes, John, we've actually seen that be pretty stable in terms of the number of orders that are coming from our spec production, which is part of the reason we spent quite a bit of time talking about that today. We like the investment community to understand that the way we're running our production machine is very specific and intentional by buyer group. Specifically, to your point with the first-time buyer group, that business is predominantly a spec business for us. The margins are lower to your point, which is a reversion to what we saw in pre-COVID kind of times that our first-time business was our lowest margin. We typically get a couple of hundred basis points higher out of our move-up and family business. And then our highest margin will come out of our active adult communities. We're definitely seeing that today. That's the other point that I would really highlight for you in kind of the guide that we've given for margins for the balance of the year. A big part of our business or a big chunk of our business is from our first-time entry-level business, which is all incorporated into that guide.

Got it. Thank you, guys.

Great. Thanks so much. I guess, first question, just kind of asking the gross margins from a different perspective, and then I have a question on demand. When you think about the more challenged backdrop that the industry faced in the back half of '22, for builders that were more spec-oriented, you saw the more immediate impact of that higher promotional, not promotional, but incentives and pricing adjustments that many builders made. You saw that run through the income statement much more immediately. We were estimating for build-to-order builders that, that would have a more of a lag effect. So, can you kind of walk through the dynamics of how you've been able to maintain since the fourth quarter? You had some pullback from 2Q '22, but nothing to the extent of the more spec-oriented, perhaps first-time heavy builders. Perhaps the product mix is a factor, but how that higher promotional environment has impacted the financials and if there's offsets to that that have allowed a much more modest decline as well as for a build-to-order builder, a pretty nice element of stability going into the back half. So sorry for the long-winded, but just trying to understand perhaps what are the offsets to the higher incentive backdrop in the back half and the pluses and minuses there?

Yes, Mike. I'll let Bob provide you with more details about the discounts this quarter, which have actually decreased slightly compared to the previous quarter. Regarding the discounts, we are primarily directing our discount funds toward mortgage rate buydowns, which particularly benefit first-time buyers. Data on the mortgage rate landscape indicates that the ideal rate for many buyers is around 5.5%. Therefore, we are reallocating our incentive funds from areas where buyers previously utilized them to focus more on the mortgage rate situation.

And if, Bob, you can kind of weigh in on any of the pluses and minuses there, it would seem that to the extent that you had any impact from the higher discounting or price adjustment, it would be in the back half of full-year guide. And so just making sure there's no other “shoe to drop here” or we've kind of worked through some of the more challenging backdrop there. I guess yes...

Yes, we have provided guidance. If you're looking at sales activity from the second half of 2022, it has either been finalized or will wrap up in the next three to six months. So it's already included in our financials or reflected in the guidance we've provided. In relation to our markets, our margins didn't increase as significantly in 2021 and the early part of 2022. This was partly because we had less speculative production compared to others. They were pricing their products upon completion and capturing full value, while we were often contracting months in advance. Consequently, we didn't fully benefit from the price increases occurring during home construction. Spec-heavy builders managed to capture maximum value during that time. Looking at the latter part of 2022 and into 2023, they were pricing their products according to the market and facing full costs associated with high lumber prices and inflation, which affected their overall pricing, particularly at the entry level. I believe their downturn relates to the land they purchased and their construction timing. Our focus on speculative business has shifted, and that's reflected in our margins today. It's important to note we typically operate at a slightly higher price point in the entry-level market, which isn't always directly comparable to some competitors. I don't want to sound defensive, but there's nothing particularly unusual in this quarter's margins that we haven't mentioned. We anticipate that margins will remain strong in the upcoming quarters.

Thanks, guys. Ryan, you mentioned that two-thirds of your divisions had raised prices over the course of the quarter. Could you expand on that a little bit? Does that mean net average order prices were up? And then can you talk about how that mix and price change was that reduction in incentives, increasing base prices, options upgrades, lot premiums? Just want to get a little more color on the price increase activity you're actually putting into the mix right now.

Yes, Carl. We have observed price increases in some of our communities across two-thirds of the division. It wasn't universal across all divisions or communities, but we are experiencing areas of strength where we can confirm a net increase in pricing. This increase is reflected in all the options you mentioned, with modest adjustments. It's important to note that these increases are based on what we consider the adjusted current cycle floor pricing. Overall, we perceive a slight improvement in the sales environment, which has enabled us to slightly raise prices.

Okay, thank you, Ryan. And then to drill down on the first-time buyer Centex spec business, what kind of backlog conversion rate do you sort of target in that business specifically? And then can you mention maybe a little bit more color on cycle time improvement, where you have been, where you are now and where you think you can go with sort of normalized supply chain over the course of the next couple of three quarters? Thanks.

Yes, Carl. I don't have a specific number for you on backlog conversion for that buyer group, but we can follow up with you separately on that. We're closely monitoring the spec business, and we're maintaining a steady and predictable monthly start rate. We've aligned that start rate with our estimated monthly sales rate. This is part of what I mentioned in my prepared remarks about achieving a match between our start rate and sales rate, which we believe we have successfully accomplished. Regarding cycle times, yes, we're starting to see those decrease in line with our expected improvements throughout the year. It hasn't been easy; our procurement teams, construction managers, and trade partners have all worked hard to reduce these cycle times. We're observing at least a couple of weeks being cut from the cycle times, especially for starts that are currently underway. We anticipate possibly reducing even more by the time those projects are delivered. This has significantly contributed to our success, both in Q2 and to the updated full-year closing guidance we've provided today.

Thanks, Ryan.

Great. Thanks very much, guys. Great job. It’s nice to see. I guess I had a question about just to touch on the volume side of the story. Can you give us a sense of what kind of rate of growth in community count the current level of land spend that you're allocating here? What kind of growth in community count can that support? It's a general question, looking out not specific to 3Q necessarily. And can you also regarding volume? Can you give us a sense for what the absorption rates? What the dispersion looks like across your three major segments?

Yes, Stephen. I'm reluctant to answer your first question because we haven't provided any view beyond the third and fourth quarters. And so I'm going to pass on that. And then in terms of the absorption paces, we haven't provided that level of detail. What I can tell you is that in the current operating environment, the quickest-growing part of the business is move-up right now, interestingly enough. So absorptions there grew faster. We had absorption growth across all three demographics. And so we had highlighted 28% growth in the first time, 33% in the move-up, and 7% in the active adult. But on a per store basis, all of them were up. The richest contributor to that actually was the move-up space.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for your questions. I want to revisit the gross margin aspect. You mentioned that the mix of incentivized build-to-order products from late 2022 sales has mostly worked its way through by now. Can you clarify what would be a bigger challenge for gross margin in the third quarter compared to the second quarter? Is it solely the mix of entry-level or first-time buyer specifications, or is there another factor contributing to the decline in margins? Thank you.

Yes, it's a couple of things. One, we are in an inflationary environment. Our land is more expensive, labor is more expensive, materials more expensive. You can see lumbers trending up given the faster cycle some of that is going to come into our production in the back half of the year. And then certainly, the mix on a geographic basis matters. And so we'll see some contributions from some margin communities that we've had to adjust as we've gone through the year. It's normal. So I know it's a non-answer, but mix always matters in that conversation.

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Thank you for that Bob. And then, I guess, secondly, just back on that last point around the improvement in move-up. Obviously, looking at the second quarter of last year, I mean, the comp is a little bit easier, but clearly, a nice step-up there. Any finer detail? I mean you gave a lot of color at the top around just what's kind of locking in existing home sellers at this point, but you are seeing this nice tick up in your move-up business. So kind of what do you think is sort of driving that? And do you expect it to continue relative to entry level? Thank you.

Yes. Matthew, I think that's the biggest driver is there's just such a shortage of supply and fewer options for that move-up buyer to choose from. So as a percentage of the available choices that are out there, new homes have become a much bigger piece of that. And I think you're seeing our move-up business benefit from that. I would share that we've got great communities, we've got excellent designs. The quality of the homes that we're building, I think, are really speaking to that move-up buyer that's looking to add more space or get a newer, more energy-efficient, more technologically advanced homes. So I think those things are working to our advantage as well. And in this higher interest rate environment, our ability to offer our national mortgage rate incentive program to the move-up buyer is meaningful as well. That's a tool that we're able to effectively leverage that the resale market is not at the same degree. So I think a number of factors there with the headline being there's just less inventory out there.

Got it. Thanks, Ryan. Thanks, Bob. Good luck, guys.

Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. First, I'd love to drill in a little bit on the topic from Steve's question about land spend. If you look at your closing guide, it's gone up about 20% for this year since the start of the year. And your land spend guide hasn't really changed, still kind of in that $3.5 billion to $4 billion range. And I know that's a big range, so maybe the answer is you're coming in closer to the high end versus the low end. But I'm just curious, as you think about the next few years, I mean, $3.5 billion to $4 billion probably is pretty close to a replacement level of land, maybe a bit below, but as you think about the land market today and what you're seeing there, is that an area where you feel like at some point, you're going to have to put pedal to the metal and get more aggressive on land spend to drive future growth? And I guess, alternatively, is there a risk of a similar dynamic unfolding from a few years ago, where if demand stays at these levels and you don't see the opportunities in the land market, do you start to limit sales again and do things to keep a lid on that to prevent gap-outs?

Thank you for the questions, Alan. To start, we did increase our projected land spending number about a quarter ago. Initially, we expected to be around $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion this year, but we've raised it to a high of $4 billion, which is a decrease from last year, and that was by design. Currently, we have around 215,000 lots under control, with over half of those secured through options. We're confident in our pipeline and its implications for our business. Market share and growth are critical components of our strategy. In terms of the land market, we're successfully closing deals. It's competitive out there, and there are no significant liquidations, but our land teams are effectively identifying good opportunities while adhering to our disciplined underwriting process. This approach has produced solid results over the past several years. Our plan is to remain disciplined and balanced in our operations, focusing strategically on where we invest additional capital. At this juncture, we see no need to accelerate our spending significantly. We'll maintain our current pace, concentrating on capitalizing on the 214,000 lots we control. We'll assess market conditions, but I believe this will enable us to continue growing our business effectively.

Got it. I really appreciate that. That's helpful. Second, I do have a question about Florida. You guys are pretty large in Florida, and there's been a lot written of late about the issues with property insurance in the state and some pretty staggering increases there. And I know some of that can be sensationalized. But I'm curious, A, are you seeing that become more of a concern among homeowners or potential home buyers today in the state? And B, are you aware of anything that the industry might be doing to kind of deal with this issue because it seems like it could have some long-term ramifications?

Yes, Alan. We haven't encountered any issues that would deter buyers from choosing our Florida communities. In fact, our Florida operations have been among the strongest performers. We have a diverse range of offerings in Florida, from entry-level homes to more upscale options in Tampa and Orlando. In South Florida, we see a significant market for active adults and second home buyers. Our financial services include an insurance company, and we analyze the business they generate as part of our overall financial portfolio. Our captive insurance agency effectively addresses some of these challenges. Historically, Florida has experienced fluctuations with insurance providers; they frequently leave and return to the market. Having lived in Florida for many years, I've witnessed this pattern with my insurance companies. We monitor this situation closely. California is facing similar challenges, with many insurance companies exiting due to significant losses, which we are also watching. It's worth noting that new homes tend to perform better in terms of flood safety, as they meet current standards, have improved drainage systems, and are more energy-efficient. Thus, there could be a case for lower risk associated with newly constructed homes.

Thanks for the time. Appreciated.

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have a follow-up regarding land. Ryan, you mentioned that you're not really seeing liquidation opportunities and that the market is competitive. There were some expectations that the recent issues with regional banks might lead to some land becoming available. Could you share your thoughts on that? Additionally, regarding the classes your land teams are working with, given the competition, is it more that you're reaching your underwriting criteria due to improved pace and pricing? Or have buyers adjusted their expectations downward? I understand there might be a mix of these factors, but on average, what do you think is playing a bigger role right now? Are sellers adjusting their prices, or is it mainly the fact that more properties are fitting your criteria at the current pace and price?

Yes. As Ryan mentioned, land is not available for sale. We have not encountered significant opportunities for large-scale transactions from banks or the private market. Regarding current activity levels, it appears to be a combination of factors, likely depending on the region. In some areas, there seems to be a willingness to negotiate on land, as the market conditions are somewhat more challenging than they were 18 to 24 months ago. Overall, the market remains quite firm, and our underwriting approach has not changed at all. Based on the activity levels we observe and can forecast, we are able to proceed with underwriting, but the land is still not for sale.

Okay, that makes sense, Bob. As a follow-up, could you expand on your costs for construction materials in the quarter and how we should view that for the second half? I know you mentioned some potential increases in lumber costs, but could you provide more details on the costs for construction materials? Additionally, what are your thoughts on inflationary trends affecting land costs over the next four quarters?

Yes. Regarding our land portfolio, we do not experience any ramp-up or ramp-down. Normal inflationary trends occur when we purchase land in three-year increments, develop it, and then build on it. We've observed a steady increase, although I cannot specify a particular percentage as it fluctuates based on market conditions over the past five years. For the vertical and horizontal development, we started the year projecting a cost increase of about 12% to 14%, but we have managed to adjust this expectation down to approximately 8% to 9%. Therefore, our total house cost has risen year-over-year by that percentage, factoring in earlier lumber savings which have since started to increase again. The primary drivers for rising costs are materials and labor. We have collaborated with our trades to uncover efficiencies, aiming for a consistent production cadence that simplifies the process for them. With improvements in the supply chain, we have managed to mitigate some of the cost rises through efficiency, although inflation in material purchasing remains a reality. Overall, we're observing costs up by about 8% to 9%.

Very helpful. Thanks, Bob.

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. First, you all generated almost $1.5 billion in operating cash flow in the first half of the year. Clearly, you've been rebuilding your spec pipeline, you're kind of cutting back on some land investment, but you should still generate some pretty healthy net income in the back half of the year. I'm just really hoping you can run us through some of the pluses and minuses on your full year '23 operating cash flow potential.

Yes. We haven't given a guide on that, Tru, but you're exactly right. I mean, if you think about it, we generated $1.5 billion through the first six months of the year. And if you put, I think, the closing volumes and the cost estimates for margins and for SG&A, the operating margin on that forward business at a sales price of $540 million is pretty rich. And certainly, inventory levels will change. But we think actually that we have an opportunity to reduce our investment in-house over the balance of the year because of the improvement in cycle times. So to your point, we're going to generate a bunch of cash in the back half of the year.

Fair enough. Fair enough. And then just wanted to follow up on a prior question. Given the healthy demand rebound so far, it looks like your absorption levels are at pretty healthy levels, a little bit above what we'll just call kind of historical 2Q averages over the past decade, if you will. Could you just run through whether there were any geographies or consumer segment where you're actually perhaps curbing absorptions again as of the second quarter?

Yes, Truman, we are always balancing our production capacity with the amount of developed land we have available and our trade capabilities. However, aside from a few unique communities that are significantly oversubscribed, we are not facing the kind of allocation restrictions we experienced during COVID.

Right. Alright. Thank you.

This is Ashu Soni on for Anthony. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to ask relative to sort of the sequential price growth on ASP in net orders you saw in the quarter. Was that pretty much like-for-like? Or maybe there might have been some mix impact? And then sort of more broadly, would you say pricing power has gotten stronger at all versus where you were seeing it on your last call in April?

Yes. I think we highlighted that some of that in our prepared remarks, and there was a question earlier, we have in certain geographies and certain communities have been able to modestly increase prices from what was arguably a pricing floor after we made adjustments late last year. So part of that is related to an effective use of the mortgage incentive, which we've used to help solve some affordability challenges. But part of that is there's a real shortage of inventory and the market is allowing us to make some modest price increases. So all of that's kind of reflected in the results that we had for Q2 as well as the guide that we've given for the balance of this year.

Thanks. What are your thoughts on the sustainability of the progress you've made regarding cycle times and costs as we move into 2024, especially with the increase in housing activity? Do you anticipate any pressure on cycle times?

Yes. We actually believe that we still got opportunity to continue to do more. And Bob highlighted it in the question that he just answered a minute ago for Truman. As it relates to cash, as we feel that we've got an opportunity to continue to reduce cycle time, not only in the balance of this year but well into '24. It's predominantly coming from a healing of the supply chain and removing a lot of the inefficiencies that crept in. But we had a broken supply chain and trades were incredibly inefficient. So we're making progress. We're pleased with it, but we're probably nowhere near where we'd like to be. Our target still remains getting back to pre-COVID cycle times, which is where I think the company can operate.

Great. Thank you. I’ll turn it over.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My first question is thinking a bit about the supply chain and the rise that we're seeing generally in starts within single family, how do you think about the industry's ability to continue to improve and perhaps sustain some of this as overall demand continues to move higher? And are there any areas specifically that you're more focused on or where we could perhaps see some issues bubble up again?

Yes. The supply chain is mostly healthy, although we are focusing on certain areas. Labor is tight but generally available, and we are using it efficiently. We feel optimistic about the supply chain overall. However, I would point out issues with electrical components, particularly switch gear used in multifamily buildings such as townhomes and condos. These products are more unique and often customized, making them harder to source, and lead times for orders have been extending. Another area of concern is transformers needed for horizontal land development, which are also in short supply. Aside from that, labor and supply chain are functioning quite effectively.

Okay. And then thinking about the business longer term, as your early starts come off the peak that we've seen more recently, but you think about the longer-term operating dynamics on the ground today and perhaps how they've changed relative to where we were coming into the pandemic? Are there things that you think you can hold on to so that the ROE can perhaps stabilize a touch higher than that 20% or low 20% range that you were in before COVID?

Susan, I'll give it a shot. It's Bob. We are focused on being efficient with our capital. We've highlighted our share repurchase activity, having already completed $400 million this year. We are generating a lot of equity through the business's earnings. Therefore, the modeling you're trying to implement doesn't really influence our decisions. We are making investment choices based on our ability to generate returns over time. I believe there is an opportunity to improve upon our historical performance. Certainly, we can be more efficient with our balance sheet. Earlier this year, we pointed out that we had $1 billion of excess capital locked up. We have consistently discussed increasing the optionality of our land holdings, which presents an opportunity for us. Currently, we are at 51%. If we make progress in these areas, we have a chance to continue delivering strong returns over time.

Okay. Thank you for the color.

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Just a follow-up on that last question. Perhaps if you could just talk if you've got in your mind, an upper limit on the idle cash that you might carry on your balance sheet going forward? And then also just maybe talk about your appetite for increasing leverage just given the facility in your business?

Yes, I wouldn't want to impose restrictions on our approach. We have been clear over the past decade on how we allocate our capital. We do not take a snapshot view of this. We have a business plan and model that we continuously refine to guide our investment decisions. Our priorities include focusing on high returns, paying dividends, and using surplus capital to repurchase stock while managing our leverage. We have lowered our expected leverage from the 30% to 40% gross debt to capitalization ratio we discussed ten years ago to a more current range of 20% to 30%, and we are currently below that level. We have a variety of options available, and I wouldn't want to commit to doing something different if we exceed a certain cash threshold. We will maintain our current strategy. We regularly collaborate with the Board to navigate our capital decisions, and that will continue as we move forward.

Got it. Thanks, Bob. And then just maybe if you could talk about the improvement relative to pre-pandemic in your gross margins and your returns on inventory, if there's a number you could quantify around production improvements and even more specifically, if the actions you've taken getting back into the off-site construction space, if there's anything to call out there? And maybe just an update on how ICG is doing?

Yes. Let me take the ICG piece. We're really pleased with how that business is operating. We have two factories up and operational that are doing well for us, and we're very pleased with what we're getting there. We've talked about once we get some additional factories up and open, and it's covering a bigger percentage of the business, we'll share more detail about the cycle time gains, the cost savings that we're seeing from that business, but we're really pleased with what that team is doing. In terms of the first part of your question, it...

It's interesting. I would say that if you're asking whether we have gained any productivity improvements due to the pandemic that we can carry forward, the opposite is true. We have a less efficient operation, which is evident in our cycle times. The supply chain issues have impacted our production efficiency. However, as Ryan mentioned earlier, we believe there is room for improvement moving forward.

That’s great, I appreciate that. Thanks guys. Good luck.

Yes. Thanks, guys. Just to ask again on the ICG. Is there any plans to roll this out to more markets near term?

Yes, Alex, when we made our first acquisition related to our off-site manufacturing efforts, we indicated that we believe we can establish up to eight plants that will affect about 70% of our overall production volume. We are still following that path. We have not announced any new openings, but the strategic plan for eight plants over time and 70% of the business remains unchanged.

Got it. And I'm not sure if I missed it, but did you guys give your land position and owned an option?

I gave the total control, but I give you the owned is 14,000 lots. The option is 110,000 lots for a total control of 214,000 lots.

Got it. And in terms of direction, obviously, a lot of builders, I guess, yourselves included, kind of slowdown acquisition of lots at the end of last year, but are you guys seeing the next few months as something that will reaccelerate or just still kind of hold near current levels?

Yes, Alex, we updated our land guide to $4 billion, which represents a significant investment in our overall land portfolio. About half of that is allocated for new acquisitions, while the other half will go towards developing lots we already own. With a total of 214,000 lots, we have plenty of runway and supply for our business going forward. In line with previous responses to similar questions, we are confident in our land acquisitions team to identify good locations and negotiate what we consider fair market prices. This strategy will enable us to achieve industry-leading returns and gross margins, supporting our ongoing business growth.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Can you just talk about the sort of specific drivers of the quarter-over-quarter step-up in gross margin in the second quarter? And then what drove upside relative to your guidance from a quarter ago?

You're meaning sequentially, right?

Correct.

Yes. So we had highlighted that a couple of things influence it relative to our guide. One is we got better pricing on specs than we were projecting. And the second was the mix of communities that we got closings from looked a little bit different than we thought. So you can see from the sales environment that the market was pretty strong. We were able to translate that in the specs that we saw. Really, those are the two primary drivers that's why we called it out.

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then you've spoken a little bit about the underwriting strategy going forward. How should we think about your option mix going forward? And like what's the longer-term target relative to the current 51%?

Yes, we've been pretty clear. We had targeted 50% a year or so ago, we increased that to a target of 70%. We have gotten to a point, I think at the richest, we were at 56%. We walked from about 60,000 lots over the back half of 2022. When you pulled us back down closer to 50%, now we're starting to rebuild again, very large. We had highlighted, we've been able to increase that in this most recent quarter. And again, the target still remains to try to be about 70%.

Great. Thank you.

I appreciate everybody joining us on the call today. We're around and available to the remainder of the day if you've got any questions. Otherwise, we'll look forward to speaking with you on our next quarterly call. Thank you.