Republic Services Inc (RSG) — Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

I would like to welcome everyone to Republic Services' second quarter 2022 conference call. Jon Vander Ark, our CEO; and Brian DelGhiaccio, our CFO, are joining me as we discuss our performance. I would like to take a moment to remind everyone that some of the information we discuss on today's call contains forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties and may be materially different from actual results. Our SEC filings discuss factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. The material that we discuss today is time sensitive. If in the future, you listen to a rebroadcast or recording of this conference call, you should be sensitive to the date of the original call, which is August 4th, 2022. Please note that this call is the property of Republic Services, Inc. Any redistribution, retransmission, or rebroadcast of this call in any form without the expressed written consent of Republic Services is strictly prohibited. I want to point out that our SEC filings; our earnings press release, which includes GAAP reconciliation tables and a discussion of business activities; along with the recording of this call, are all available on Republic's website at republicservices.com. I want to remind you that Republic's management team routinely participates in investor conferences. When events are scheduled, the dates and times along with presentations are posted on our website. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jon.

Thanks, Aaron. Good afternoon everyone, and thank you for joining us. Our second quarter results continue to demonstrate the value created by our differentiated capabilities and ability to harness the positive momentum in our business. We delivered outsized revenue growth both organically and through acquisitions, while generating underlying margin expansion. This was achieved by pricing in excess of our internal costs inflation and continued savings from productivity initiatives. The fundamentals in our business remain strong, and we remain well-positioned to capitalize on additional growth opportunities in the marketplace. During the second quarter, we delivered revenue growth of 21%, generated adjusted earnings per share of $1.32, which is a 21% increase over the prior year and produced more than $1.1 billion of adjusted free cash flow on a year-to-date basis, which is a 14% increase over the prior year. We continue to effectively allocate capital by investing in value creating acquisitions and returning cash to our shareholders. Year-to-date, we invested $2.5 billion in acquisitions, which includes the acquisition of US Ecology. The integration of US Ecology is well underway and progressing as planned. We're encouraged by early cross-selling results, and remain confident that we will achieve at least $40 million of cost synergies. We have one of our most robust acquisition pipelines ever with opportunities to close transactions this year and into 2023. We now expect to invest over $600 million in acquisitions apart from US Ecology for the year. Substantially all of these deals are in the recycling and solid waste space. Year-to-date, we returned $495 million to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Additionally, we recently announced an increase of the dividend for the 19th consecutive year. During the second quarter, we reported organic volume growth of 2.4%, which was broad based across geographies and market verticals. Simultaneously, we demonstrated our ability to price. Core price reached an all-time high of 6.2%, and average yield increased to 5%. This is the highest level of pricing in company history. At the same time, we're experiencing higher than expected inflationary pressures that continue to persist. That said, we expect to continue to price more than our internal cost inflation, ultimately leading to full year results that are projected to exceed original expectations. We now expect adjusted EPS in the range of $4.77 to $4.80, and adjusted free cash flow in a range of $1.7 billion to $1.725 billion. This represents an increase of approximately 4% from the midpoint of the prior guidance. Finally, we believe creating a more sustainable world is both our responsibility and a platform for growth. We've recently published our latest sustainability report, highlighting the progress we're making toward our most significant opportunities to positively impact key stakeholders and the environment. We reported a 9% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions from our 2017 baseline, which keeps us well-positioned to achieve our interim target of a 10% reduction by 2025. We also highlight progress made on climate leadership goals, including circular economy and renewable energy. These goals are supported by investments we are making in Polymer centers and landfill gas projects, which are progressing as planned. In addition to having a positive impact on the environment, the innovative solutions are a platform for growth. Our efforts continue to be recognized externally, as Republic was recently named to 3BL Media's 100 Best Corporate Citizens list for the third consecutive year. I will now turn the call over to Brian who will provide details on the quarter.

Thanks, Jon. Core price during the second quarter was 6.2%, which included open market pricing of 7.8% and restricted pricing of 3.5%. The components of core price included small container of 9.7%, large container of 6.9% and residential of 5.6%. Average yield on total revenue was 5%, which represents an increase of 80 basis points when compared to our first quarter performance. Average yield unrelated revenue was 5.4%. As Jon mentioned, we continue to dynamically adjust price on new and existing business to offset higher levels of cost inflation we've seen in our operating costs and capital expenditures. Second quarter volume increased 2.4%. The components of volume included an increase in small container of 2.8%, an increase in large container of 2% and an increase in landfill of 5.7%. Our customer retention rate remained stable at 95%. Moving on to recycling. Commodity prices were $218 per ton in the second quarter. This compares to $170 per ton in the prior year. Recycling processing and commodity sales contributed 20 basis points to internal growth during the second quarter. Next, turning to our environmental solutions business. Second quarter environmental solutions revenue increased $260 million from the prior year, which primarily relates to the acquisition of US Ecology. On the same-store basis, environmental solutions contributed 50 basis points to internal growth during the second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the environmental solutions portion of our business was 17.1% during the quarter. This includes our existing operations in the Gulf and northeast together with the addition of US Ecology. Total company adjusted EBITDA margin for the second quarter was 29.6%. This compared to 30.6% in the prior year. Margin performance during the quarter included a 140 basis point decrease from acquisitions, of which 60 basis points relates to US Ecology, and a 110 basis point headwind from net fuel. It's important to note that even though net fuel was diluted to margin, we recovered over 95% of the dollar change fuel expense through fuel recovery fees. These margin headwinds were partially offset by a 30 basis point increase from recycled commodity prices, a 60 basis point contribution from relatively higher incentive compensation expense in the prior year, and most importantly, underlying margin expansion of 60 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the solid waste and recycling business was 30.8%. SG&A expenses excluding transactions costs from US Ecology were 10% of revenue. The 70 basis point improvement demonstrates our ability to effectively manage costs and gain leverage while growing the business. With respect to our outlook, our guidance implies sequential growth in adjusted EBITDA dollars of 5% to 5.5% in the second half of the year compared to our first half performance. This would continue to drive double-digit EBITDA growth on a year-over-year basis. As a result, we now expect full year 2022 adjusted EBITDA margin to be approximately 29.3%. The change in margin from our initial expectations relates to the impact of US Ecology and fuel. Year-to-date adjusted free cash flow was $1.15 billion and increased $143 million or 14% compared to the prior year. This was driven exclusively by EBITDA growth in the business. Year-to-date capital expenditures of $505 million represent 35% of our projected full-year spend, and year-to-date cash taxes of $79 million represent approximately 25% of our projected full-year spend. We now expect full-year capital expenditures in a range of $1.45 billion to $1.47 billion. This represents an increase of $130 million from the midpoint of our prior expectations. The increase includes $75 million related to US Ecology. The remainder of the increase relates to investments to support growth and higher than anticipated costs for trucks, equipment, and landfill cell development. Total debt was $12 billion and total liquidity was $1.6 billion. Our leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was approximately 3.3 times. We expect to revert to three times leverage within the next 12 months. With respect to taxes, our combined tax rate and non-cash charges from solar investments resulted in an equivalent tax impact of 23.9% during the second quarter, and 24.6% on a year-to-date basis. A lower than anticipated tax rate was mostly timing related and provided a $0.05 EPS benefit during the first half of the year. We expect this timing benefit will flip in the second half, resulting in an equivalent tax impact of 29% in the third quarter, and 26% in the fourth quarter. We still expect a full-year equivalent tax impact of approximately 26%. With that operator, I would like to open the call for questions.

Thanks so much. I was hoping you could give a little bit of extra color on the expectation for how pricing plays out. I know you gave some great detail in terms of where the open market versus restricted was in the quarter. But just how you think that plays out during the rest of the year?

Yes, strong. Because of that momentum on the pricing side, obviously, we're putting out more price than we ever have on the open market side and retaining at a higher percentage than we ever have. Which I think is a function of both the macro economy and inflation, and all costs going up for customers, as well as the fact that we continue to differentiate our service offering and provide something unique in the marketplace. And I don't see that changing for the remainder of the year. And then we'll get a nice pickup in the second half of the year on the restricted side of the business. As those contracts kick in with underlying escalators tied to CPI or CPI derivatives like average trash or water sewer trash, that will provide some momentum there as well.

Terrific. And then in terms of US Ecology, just any additional color on surprises versus now that you've started the integration, versus what your expectations were before?

Generally, it was unplanned. I'm very excited about the team. One surprise is that we've been able to retain an even higher percentage of people than we anticipated. There are good synergies from the deal we've discussed. The reason we pursued this opportunity is because we see it as a platform for growth, and we have great respect for their compliance culture, their expertise, and their exceptional assets. Their team has been highly motivated to connect with us, and there is a strong cultural alignment. We did substantial work on organization structure and design before the merger, and we've staffed those teams and are already active in the marketplace. Overall, it has a bit more momentum than I expected at this stage.

Terrific. Thank you so much.

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, everyone. Regarding the pricing question, many of your contracts, as you mentioned, are performing strongly in the latter half of the year. This positions you well for 2023, considering the continuation of those prices and any pricing adjustments throughout the year. Looking ahead to 2023, is there any reason we shouldn't expect to see a sustained elevated pricing rate? We will certainly face some tougher comparisons in the latter part of 2023, but please correct me if I'm wrong; shouldn't it stay elevated, especially since the pricing towards the end of this year remains high into the first half of next year?

Yes. I guess the one cautionary note, obviously, that we're living in very unique and uncertain times. And I think in the last 36 months have taught all of us some dose of humility. All that being said, the outlook from what we see right now is very, very positive. And so, you're right, the restricted portion of that book will continue to flow through. We're not going to change our stripes on the open market side of this business, right. We started, we lead with price. Our people deserve a fair wage increase. And that profit allows us to reinvest in the business and drive sustainability and all the things that we care about. So that won't change. And listen, I think we've got momentum on all three fronts. We've got momentum on the pricing side of the business. We've got momentum on the volume side of this business. And obviously, the acquisition activity has also been very strong. And the rollover effect in the next year sets us up for what we think will end up being probably a double-digit revenue year in 2023.

That's a great observation. Regarding acquisitions, I want to ask how you're currently approaching them in two aspects. First, with the significant acquisition of US Ecology, does this affect your acquisition schedule or the pace of future acquisitions? Secondly, does this acquisition lead you to consider a broader range of acquisitions, including hazardous waste and solid waste, or will you continue to focus primarily on solid waste opportunities moving forward?

Yes. I think we talked about when we did the deal. This wasn't either/or; it was both/and. And the timing of the deal was predicated on all the momentum we had in the traditional recycling and solid waste side of the business. And our outlook has never been stronger and more positive there for deals. I thought about what we're going to close this year and a strong pipeline in the next year. And that's where we certainly, the bulk of our acquisition spend will certainly come in that space. Now, the benefit is we've got a second platform with which we can pursue further follow-on and tuck-in acquisitions. And certainly, we have a pipeline there. I think it's very unlikely in the near term as we do another deal of scale in the environmental solution side of the business. Because we think we've got a great platform with US Ecology. We're building that out. Again, we'll be able to tuck in pieces along the way in a very analogous way to the solid waste and recycling space of getting great post-closure synergies on those deals as we pulled those right in.

Makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the time as always.

Thank you.

Hi. Good afternoon, and congratulations on the strong quarter. I'm wondering if you could talk about, as we think about the pieces for 2023, you alluded to the top line. Can you just talk about the tailwinds that you folks are going to have from your investments in landfill gas and in more facilities? How many facilities do we have coming online over the next 12 months as we just layer on additional tailwinds to the business as we think about what 2023 might look like at this point?

Yes, Jerry, specifically around some of the landfill gas projects and Polymer centers and things of that nature. Anything that's going to come online is really going to be in the latter part of 2023. So the contribution to 2023 is pretty limited with respect to those projects. Now, obviously, setting up 2024 and beyond, right, that's where it starts to get more exciting with respect to those investments. Really next year is more about pricing in excess of cost inflation, the realization of the synergies with the US Ecology deal.

And on that note, obviously, really strong margin performance this year, but given the high inflationary environment overall, it certainly limits how aggressive we can get on pricing ahead of cost. What's the opportunity to make up for that next year, as hopefully, inflation slows from high singles to mid-singles? Could we see a 60, 70, 80 basis point margin expansion versus half that you would typically target?

I think the thing you have to remember, Jerry, is that on the restricted portion of our business and those indices that those contracts are tied to, they tend to lag. So again, when you take a look at what we're doing with the inflationary environment we're experiencing today, and we're seeing that across our book, and we're able to drive underlying margin expansion this year, as we start to get those relatively higher price increases next year, we think that actually sets us up very well for continued margin expansion into 2023.

So just to be clear, it doesn't sound like we should be thinking about commercial and industrial lines of business, pricing slowing significantly. So, we're just going to get the additional kicker from the restricted business kicking in and continued level of pricing that we've seen in C&I this year. Is that right?

Yes. The only caveat I'd say is, I mean, the labor market remains constrained. And we do see some signs of that easing, right? And I would hope that that would continue to ease throughout the year, and create the opportunity in the next year, but we will do whatever. We want to run this business forever. So we'll do whatever we need to do to retain our people. So the level of margin expansion that we have in 2023 will be predicated on exactly how tight the labor market is and what we need to do with wages.

Super. Appreciate the discussion. Thanks.

Hey, good afternoon. My first question is just around the restricted book. And then also as part of that just cost inflation. So, when you look at your cost buckets, do you believe most of those buckets have peaked, labor included? And then as part of that, when you look at your restricted book, how much of that book is on indices that are not CPI? And when they reset, do they cover cost inflation that you're seeing? I know they lag, or does it not even matter because the open market is so strong that it will help you recover whatever you're not currently?

Let me begin with the wage aspect. We're currently seeing inflation in the high fours, and we're comfortable with that figure partly because we entered this high inflation period with a robust cost structure. By robust, I mean it’s balanced—not too high and not too low. Our team has a strong grasp of local market conditions, and we aim to be the preferred employer in those areas. However, we've had to increase wages this year beyond our original plan due to the changing environment. We anticipate that this will stabilize, and we expect to finish the year in the high fours regarding wages. If inflation decreases, we believe that will start to adjust moving forward. We feel we've passed the peak of this situation, although we acknowledge the uncertainty in the environment. Regarding the 50% of our book that has a contractual pricing restriction, 34% of it is directly tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), while 18% uses some alternative index. Therefore, just over half has some inflationary aspect factored in, and the remaining 48% employs other pricing methods, which may include fixed rates, rate reviews, or cost-plus contracts. This outlines the composition of that 50% of our book.

Got it. I have a follow-up question regarding US Ecology. You mentioned early signs of cross-selling. Can you remind us what you estimated the revenue synergies to be? Also, is the sales cycle different from solid waste? Can you provide some examples of the early success in cross-selling? Thank you.

Sure. We value the deal, obviously, based on the standalone intrinsic value, plus $40 million of cost synergies. That being said, we think the revenue synergies over time will outpace that. Part of that is on the revenue synergies. So we've said, $75 million to $100 million of cross-sell realized over three years. We've already gotten 15 of that. So very good early momentum on that front. And it's cutting both ways. Customers that US Ecology have, we're bringing in our services. But even more so customers that we have, we're now selling a broader set of services to. So we're in early days on that. We haven't really done a full rollout across all on our sales teams. So very excited about the momentum to hit that number. And then on pricing, we believe these are scarce assets. And again, you need to price to be able to reinvest in these assets over time and grow. And so, we put out a double-digit price increase earlier this week that will go into effect in early September into the marketplace, because it's imperative that we do that. It's an inflationary environment, right? We're going to reinvest in the business, and we're going to expand these margins over time.

Got it. Thank you.

Thank you all. So many things to think about and choose from. So, I'm going to pick free cash flow. If the old midpoint was $2.65 billion, you subtract $130 million for more CapEx. That means there's about $193 million of upside from performance between solid waste and environmental services. Can you split between them where that came from?

Yes. That's all solid waste, Michael.

All solid waste. Okay. So that just shows how dramatic the leverage of this price has been to convert that into cash. That's the other observation.

Agree.

Okay, margins. So the US Ecology margins or the ES margins, which is basically mostly US Ecology, were came out better than if you were looking at old models for that business coming into 2Q. How much of that was a really good market for those kinds of services, and everybody had a really good quarter, all the peers versus anything that you were able to affect change? And then how do I look at your combined margin of 29.3%, and convert that into what's the dollars of EBITDA?

Let me start with the latter part first, regarding the dollars of EBITDA. We discussed that for the full year, or specifically the second half, we expect EBITDA to increase by 5% to 5.5% over our first half performance. The first half was $1.913 billion, which implies the second half will range from $2 billion to $2.20 billion, totaling roughly $3.91 to $3.93 billion for the full year. This 5% to 5.5% sequential growth includes about 3.5% attributed to US Ecology, benefiting from a longer period of inclusion, while the remainder of the business accounts for 1.5% to 2%. This latter figure, on a like-for-like basis, aligns with what we would generally expect in a typical year. Regarding your margin questions, the 17.1% margin for the environmental solutions business reflects limited changes during that short two-month period. Most synergy capture and cross-selling opportunities, as mentioned by Jon, along with pricing opportunities, are expected to materialize later. Overall, this indicates strength in the US Ecology business, possibly reflecting broader strength in the industrial market.

It was very good. We crossed their peer group. So it doesn't surprise me. It was good. I just was wondering how much you were able to influence already. Okay, thanks.

Thanks, Michael.

Hi, guys, thanks for taking my questions. I might have missed it. But just the updated yield and volume guidance for 2022 seems like both are going up here?

Yes. We expect that the 5% we reported for the second quarter will accelerate in the second half of the year, as we mentioned. We anticipate maintaining a rate above 5% for the remainder of the year, which would average around 5% for the full year. Currently, regarding volume, we expect it to be at the high end of our original guidance range, which is approximately 2%.

Okay. Got it. Very helpful. And updated margin guidance, 29.3%. I believe it was 30.3% to 30.4% before. I think Ecol was supposed to be 70 basis points of that gap. Is that what it ended up being in there? And that leaves maybe 35 basis points of fuel. But I assume fuel was actually more than that. And you're actually covering a lot of what the incremental fuel drag was with price. So if we could just flush that out, that'd be helpful?

Sure. Yes. You actually had a couple of those numbers there. So US Ecology is a 70 basis point drag from our original expectations. Net fuel is actually 50 basis points worse than we originally thought. We actually have 120 basis points drag between the two. And we're making that up with the rest of the business to get to that 29.3 for the year.

Got it. Nice work. Thanks for the help.

Yes, thank you. When we think about the acceleration you mentioned for the second half of the year with the yield, could you assist us in understanding how that might roll over for 2023, considering where we are finishing this year and what we expect from US Ecology after two months?

Are you talking about just overall revenue? Or are you just talking about specifically around yield?

Both, if you could, just because of the core price as you accelerate, I mean, you're putting these price increases through this year. So there must be some rollover benefit just by even not even increasing next year, just by run rating on the end of this year. And also for US Ecology, I'm curious if there's any change in terms of the 12-month impact that we were thinking of when you originally guided?

Yes. Just a couple of things I want to clarify. So, when we're talking about core price and yield, that is on the solid waste business. That's what's included in those numbers. I want to point that out because any change in environmental solutions revenue, whether it be price or volume is on a single line item when we sit there and reconcile the change in revenue. So, as we're talking about 5% yield, as you think about the sequential improvement from the CPI-linked contracts, we think in the second half of the year, that's probably about a 20 basis point increase or so in yield second half versus our second quarter performance, with a further step up, probably somewhere in that kind of mid-fives as we sit there and look at 2023.

Got it. And Brian and Jon, I'm curious, if we look back at your historical peak margin of 31% EBITDA range in 2010, 2011. I know one main factor, why margins were below that over the last decade was the low CPI. So, as we move into a CPI range of 3%, let's say, in a multi-year basis, which was consistent with prior cycles, how different is the business setup today in terms of streamlined operations, routing, costs, like how different is this business today with a CPI of 3%, 3.5%, long term compared to where we were in prior cycles? Thank you.

Yes. Stronger on both fronts. We're certainly stronger on the customer side, which leads to revenue on all fronts. It's a healthier customer mix. Again, I don't think that we talk enough about the economics of loyalty in this business. Every revenue dollar equals. Some customers are willing to stay with you longer. That's why core price is interesting, but yield becomes the ultimate pricing metric. And that's the one that really connects to the P&L because it factors in the customers that you gain and lose. And you gain and lose those customers at very different rates with the same cost structure. So, yield becomes very important. So we've got the healthier customer base. We've got better tools, right and better technology that help us work with our local teams and price very dynamically across all of our 300-plus market, so we feel better about that. And then we're more efficient. The rise of digital platforms has been a big game changer for us. We've taken out $40 million of cost. And we think over the next 18 to 24 months, we got another $60 million to take out just in terms of driving efficiency and getting the same amount of work done in a shorter period of time. So, where CPI goes? Listen, we've lived in all kinds of different environments here. I can tell you, it would be really low, right. It doesn't work very well for the industry. And we've seen that period. The current number obviously isn't great either. Even though the results are good, we're out of balance as an economy, right with labor constraints and an unsustainable way where it's impacting consumer spending everything else. So modulating something into a 2%, 3%, 4%, I think you're going to find very healthy dynamics for our business and really good performance.

Thank you.

Hey, good afternoon, guys.

Hi, Tyler.

Hey, Brian. So, I just want to clarify and be clear on modeling question here. But what is the expected revenue contribution in 2022 from M&A based on the guide?

Yes. So if you take a look at the total contribution from acquisitions, it's a 9.3%. Or that which is close, has close to that, includes US Ecology. If you were to exclude US Ecology, that would be about 300 basis points.

Can you discuss the benefits of the rollover in 2023 based on what has closed and what rolls over?

Yes. Including US Ecology that would also be about 300 basis points, or again, US Ecology plus deals close today.

Yes. Okay. And then going back to the prior question, did you say that you think your restricted book will be up circa mid-5% next year?

So overall, and we kind of talked about the cadence of average yield. And so, again, with a 5% average yield than the second quarter, we see the second half improving 15 to 20 basis points compared to our second quarter performance. And then as we look forward to 2023, again, assuming that things stay relatively stable on the open market portion of our business, that's where we think of average yield right now in kind of that mid-5s overall.

Yield. Okay, that helps. You talked about just over $3.9 billion in EBITDA for this year. If I do that calculation, it kind of implies, call it a 43% to 44% free cash conversion. I think last quarter, you reendorsed that 47% for 2024. So, can you kind of build that bridge that three to 400 basis point uplift in conversion? I mean, is that lower leverage? Is that a better closure, post-closure, cash taxes, CapEx? Just how do we get there?

Yes. A majority of that would be as we revert to that three times leverage, right, so we're going to reduce the interest expense. At the same time though capturing the synergies, that's all going to be accretive to both EBITDA margin as well as to free cash flow conversion. So, the combination really of the US Ecology integration, the reduction in interest expense over time, is that line of sight to that 47% free cash flow conversion.

Okay. That's helpful. And then, I think we're 100 days in on US Ecology. Any high-level thoughts about portfolio rationalization? Do all the lines make sense?

Yes. So there's a couple of things that are a strategic review, right. And we'll announce those when we've taken a decision on those items. The vast majority of what we bought, we like, and we're going to keep and operate. And there's a couple of things that we're taking a look at that might not be the best fit; someone else might be the natural owner.

Okay. Last one, I promise. And it's a bit of a strange question. But is there an extra workday in Q3 because of how 4th of July fell?

I think Q3 is relatively flat year-over-year. Q4, there might be a quarter difference.

Thank you, Betsy. We are proud of our second-quarter performance. We continue to manage the business to create long-term value for all stakeholders. I would like to thank our 39,000 employees for their continued hard work and commitment to provide our customers with first-class service to create a more sustainable world. Have a good evening and be safe.